The South Jetty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve looked over the charts for The South Jetty, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a pretty bleak run we’re looking at for the next couple of weeks. This stretch is almost a total write-off, with barely a ripple worth paddling for. We’ve got a long gap of quiet, unrideable conditions before the swell even thinks about showing its face.

The story starts on Monday the 17th of August and just limps along. For the first eight days, right through to Monday the 24th, it’s a dead zone. The swell is tiny – we’re talking 0.7 ft to 2 ft at best – and the wind is all over the shop. There’s a moment of glass on Wednesday morning the 19th (1.0 ft, SE, period 10s), but with barely any energy (combined 24) and that tiny height, you’d be floating, not surfing. Saturday the 22nd also has a glassy morning (1.0 ft, ESE), but again, there’s just nothing to push you down the line. The water temperature is a notable 78°, which is 4° warmer than normal – that’s much warmer than usual for this time of year, but it doesn’t make up for the lack of waves.

Finally, on Tuesday the 25th of August morning, things start to turn. We see the first real sign of life: a 3 ft swell from the S, a short period of 5s, but with a light cross-offshore breeze and some energy finally showing up (70). The notes say “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and that’s about right. It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s paddlable. That morning is your best bet in this whole outlook, purely because everything else is so poor. The South Jetty is an exposed beach and jetty setup, and the optimum swell direction is SE, but that Tuesday morning is coming from the S, so it’s not lining up perfectly. Still, with clean wind and the only real swell on offer, it’s the standout.

The rest of the week into early September is messy. By Wednesday afternoon the 26th of August, the swell period jumps to 14s from the SE, but it’s only 1 ft and the wind is a fresh cross-onshore from the E (12 mph), creating chop. Thursday the 27th picks up some energy (195 and 185) with swell around 2 ft to 3 ft, but the wind cranks to 19 mph from the E, making it lumpy and unfriendly for a paddle. Friday the 28th sees the biggest energy spike of the whole period (398 and 301) with 3 ft to 4 ft swell from the SE, but it’s cross-shore wind at 16-19 mph from the NE. That’s getting into the territory where it might be more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session, especially with the chop. Conditions don’t improve much after that – small swell, onshore or cross winds, and a whole lot of frustration.

So, to sum it up: the wave window is basically closed until Tuesday the 25th of August morning. That morning offers 3 ft from the S with a clean breeze – it’s your one shot, but don’t expect perfection. After that, the energy ramps up but the wind ruins it. We’re in a long dry spell, and for this area, that happens. Forecasts can change, but right now it’s a waiting game. Hang in there.

Rusty

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