Nags Head Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what the next couple of weeks have in store for us at Nags Head Pier. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. We're looking at a long, dry spell to kick things off.

The pattern for the first week and a half is bleak. There is absolutely no surf worth paddling out for from now until at least Sunday the 12th of July. That’s a solid gap of about 7 days with nothing on offer. Wave heights are tiny, mostly below 2 ft, and the few times a little bump shows up, the wind is all wrong. It’s not just small; it’s chopped up, cross-shore, or just messy. You’ll be sitting on your board for nothing.

The first whisper of something we can call a wave comes on Sunday, July 12th. We see a bump in energy with a combined swell energy of 173 (moderate) in the morning, rising to 193 (moderate) by the afternoon. Swell height climbs to 4 ft from the ENE with a short, weak period of 6 seconds. But here’s the rub – the wind is cross-onshore from the SSE at 9-12 mph, keeping things choppy. It’s rideable for the desperate, but it’s not clean and the quality is poor.

Things get a bit more interesting on Monday, July 13th. The morning shows a drop in swell height to 3 ft from the ENE, but the wind swings offshore from the W at 16 mph. That offshore breeze will clean it right up. The combined swell energy drops to 80 (weak), but with clean conditions, it’ll be a much better vibe. This is the first real looker, but still on the small side.

The standout window, and the only one I’d really get excited about, is Tuesday, July 14th. We get a pulse of 5 ft swell from the north, with a combined energy of 200 (moderate). That’s a proper little punch. More importantly, the wind goes fresh offshore from the west at 19 mph in the morning, dropping to 12 mph offshore in the afternoon. This will make for clean, lined-up waves. 5 ft is a touch of size, so it’s not for grommets, but for intermediate surfers it’s going to be fun. The swell direction from N is a bit raw for a beach break like Nags Head Pier, and the period is a short 6 seconds, so expect a bit of a closeout on some, but there’ll be enough shoulders to work with. This is the best on offer.

After that, we’re back to smallness. Wednesday the 15th through to the end of the outlook is a return to ankle-snappers and poor conditions. A lingering clean morning on the 20th of July with 4 ft from the ESE and 19 mph offshore wind gives a glimmer, but the period is a shocking 5 seconds and combined energy is only 58 (weak). Not really worth the paddle.

Water temp is sitting at a warm 80°F, which is about average for this time of year, so it’s comfortable out there.

So, to sum it up: don't bother until Monday the 13th at the earliest. If you can only go one day, make it Tuesday, July 14th for that clean, offshore morning. It’s the only real standout in the whole run. Keep your eyes on the forecasts, because it’s bound to change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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