Nags Head Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and come take a look at what’s coming up for the Outer Banks over the next couple weeks. I’m not gonna lie, it’s a pretty bleak picture for a good chunk of it, but there are a couple of fleeting windows.

We’re in a real quiet patch right now. The opening run starts with almost nothing of value. For the first five days or so, we’re looking at tiny, weak swells with poor conditions – a lot of onshore and cross-onshore wind, especially Sunday and Monday when we get a bit of bump, but it’s messy, choppy, and under a risk of thunderstorms. Nothing worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Wednesday, July 15th. The morning has a glassy surface with slight air movement – that’s the best wind you can ask for. But the swell is still tiny, only 2ft from the east, and the combined energy is really weak at 42. The wave comment calls it “surfable but very ordinary,” and I’d agree. It's a session for the longboard or a recovery paddle, not for a full on surf session. This is the best on offer in the first week, but it's only a 1 out of 10 type of day.

The rest of that week and into the next is pretty grim. We’ve got a lot of windy afternoons, some strong offshores that will clean things up, but with practically no swell – we’re talking 0.3ft to 1.0ft for days. That Saturday (July 19th) has a 0.3ft easterly groundswell with a very long period (13 seconds), but the energy is basically zero at 3. Even with the light cross-off wind, there’s nothing to ride.

Now, moving into the third week, we start to see a shift. On Monday morning, July 21st, we get a clean, gentle offshore wind from the west at 9 mph. The swell nudges up to 2ft from the southeast, and energy climbs to 53. Still not great, but it’s clean. That afternoon gets interesting with a jump to 5ft from the SSE, but it’s a short-period windswell (5 seconds), so it will be lumpy and crumbly despite the moderate offshore breeze. The energy is moderate at 115, but the wave comment is still just “surfable but ordinary.” It’s a step up, but not a standout.

Then we get the best of the run on Wednesday morning, July 22nd. We’ve got a light NNW breeze (3 mph, cross-off), producing clean conditions. The swell is a better 3ft from the southeast, and we finally break into decent energy at 140. It’s a bit more power behind it, and with that clean face, the pier could offer some fun, albeit small, walls. This is your best bet for the entire outlook. The rest of that day and the days after drop back off into tiny, ordinary conditions or strong, messy winds.

There’s a big gap from the end of the first week right through the start of the third with no real recommendations – about 10 days of surf that's either too small or too windy to be worth chasing.

For the standout, I’m pointing you to Nags Head Pier on the morning of Wednesday, July 22nd. It’s clean, there’s 3ft of swell pushing in from the southeast, and with the combined energy at 140 (moderate, solid), it’s got enough push for a fun session. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so there could be a few others out, but with this kind of run, it’s worth the gamble.

Keep your expectations low for the rest of it, but that one Wednesday morning might just give you a smile.

Rusty

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