Rincon - Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf’s up… well, sort of. Let’s be real with you. The next two weeks aren't going to blow anyone out of the water, but there are a few windows where it could get fun if you know where to go. We’re looking at a stretch that starts slow, but the back half of the period has some promise.

Right off the bat, Wednesday and Thursday (the 9th and 10th) are pretty weak. We’re looking at ankle to knee-high dribble, around 1ft to 2ft, coming from the SW. The energy is weak, only 99 in the combined reading on Wednesday morning. The wind is light and cross-off, which will keep it clean, but there just isn’t any push. Thursday afternoon gets a bit more energy (240), but the wind goes a little cross, and it turns into a bit of a mess. Not worth getting wet for, unless you just need to paddle.

The weekend is more of the same, honestly. Friday and Saturday are small, in that 1ft to 2ft range, with poor conditions. The swell is fading, with periods dropping from 16 seconds down to 14 seconds. The energy is moderate, but it's not translating to any real shape. It’s just soft and lumpy.

Then Sunday the 13th, we see a bump. The swell jumps to around 3ft – 4ft, but the period has dropped to a short, crumbly 9 seconds. That’s a real weak windswell. The energy is moderate, but it’s not going to have any punch. Still, it’s the biggest we’ve seen, but it’s not breaking well. Wind is still light, but the quality just isn't there.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are ugly. The swell is on the way down, and by Tuesday, the wind goes cross-on, and we get some short period junk from the SSW. That Tuesday afternoon reading shows a 20-second period pulse, but it’s only 1ft. Literally nothing.

Now here’s where things get interesting. From around the 18th of September, the models start showing a proper groundswell. We’ve got a solid SW swell coming in, with periods of 18 to 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, the kind that makes Rincon start to work. Wednesday the 18th and Thursday the 19th look like the pick of the whole run. The swell is still small, around 1ft to 2ft, but that long period and clean, light cross-off wind will make for some glassy, lined-up waves.

The standout is Rincon - Rivermouth (California). This is where you want to be. On Thursday the 19th, we’ve got that 2ft SW swell with an 18-second period. The combined energy is reading 356, which is moderate, but the quality of that long-period swell on a point break like this is the key. The light WSW cross-off wind is going to keep it clean and make it feel much bigger than the numbers suggest. It’s not going to be huge, but it will be perfect.

The following days, the 20th and 21st, look okay too. The swell hangs around 2ft to 2ft, but the period drops back slightly. Still, those afternoons are looking clean with that cross-off wind.

The last few days, from the 22nd on, the swell starts to fade and the period shortens back down. It turns into that same old story of small, weak, and cross-onshore. The energy drops back down to the 100-200 range. We’re back to the grovelers.

So, to sum it up: the first week and a half is a write-off. You might get a few grovelly ones, but nothing satisfying. The true standout is the Rincon - Rivermouth stretch on the 18th and 19th. That’s your window. It’s small but perfect. Beyond that, it’s a waiting game.

The water is warm, around 70°, which is 6° warmer than usual for this time of year, so you can get away with a thinner suit.

Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, this is the plan.

Rusty

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