Rincon - Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a long stretch ahead, but it’s a bit of a slow start and a real trickle towards the end. The first real pulse of surfable waves shows up on Thursday morning, July 23rd, but it’s not exactly firing.

The Outlook

The 16-day window kicks off with a bit of a tease. Thursday morning, July 23rd, at Rincon - Rivermouth we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW, but the real kicker is the water temp. It’s sitting at 69° with a massive anomaly of 7°, so it’s *much* warmer than normal for this time of year. Almost feels like a bath. The wind is a light cross-off, so the surface is clean, but the waves are pretty ordinary. The combined energy is weak (180), so it’s just a little ankle-snapper. Thursday afternoon picks up a bit with a 4ft W swell, but the period is a super short 6 seconds, so it’s a bit of a mess. Still, light breeze keeps it clean.

Friday the 24th looks poor in the morning with a cross-wind and a weak 3ft swell. The afternoon improves a little with a 1ft SW swell that has a much longer period of 24 seconds, giving it moderate energy (209). That’s a sneaky little groundswell pulse, but it’s small.

The Standout

Honestly, the best on offer is a run of consistent, clean conditions from Saturday morning, July 25th, through to Tuesday afternoon, July 28th. The trick is to focus on the mornings. Saturday morning has a 2ft SSW swell with a 21-second period, and the combined energy jumps up to a solid 420 – that’s moderate wave energy. The wind is light cross-off, so it’s glassy. The swell direction (SSW) is a little off the optimum for Rincon (WNW), but the long period from the south will wrap in nicely. This is a classic point break setup, so that long period groundswell will line up beautifully. This is the pick of the window. The wave heights are all under 5ft, so it’s fine for intermediates, but crowds are likely here – it’s Rincon, after all.

Sunday morning the 26th is a repeat with a 2ft SSW swell and 386 energy. Monday morning the 27th has a 2ft SW swell with 393 energy. Tuesday morning the 28th shows a 3ft SSW swell with a very solid 493 energy – the strongest of the run. The afternoons each day stay clean too, but with lighter winds and slightly smaller waves.

The Fade Out

By Wednesday, July 30th, the energy starts to drop. The morning of the 30th is still surfable but marginal, with the wind swinging a little onshore. The swell drops to 2ft by Friday, August 1st, and the energy collapses. Then we hit a big gap. From Saturday, August 2nd, right through to the end of the window on Friday, August 7th, conditions are mostly poor with tiny waves and weak energy. There are a few little bumpy days, but nothing worth paddling for. It’s a real flat spell. The last few days of the forecast are just 1.0ft to 2ft slop. Don’t even bother.

Bottom line: Get out there Saturday, July 25th, through Tuesday, July 28th for the cleanest, most consistent swell. The mornings are your friend. After that, it’s a long, quiet wait.

Rusty.

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