Rincon - Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn for Rincon - Rivermouth. The forecast is pretty lacklustre for the next week or so, with plenty of days of small, weak swell and average wind. There’s a lot of waiting for that good session to show up.

Now, we kick off from Tuesday the 15th through to the next weekend, and it’s mostly quiet. We’re looking at tiny waves, generally under 2 feet, with swell coming from the SSW. The energy is weak to moderate (values between 94 and 243 for the combined energy). The wind is mostly light and cross or cross-onshore, so the surface is messy with ripples. Not really worth paddling out for.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th sees a slight improvement. Saturday afternoon the 19th and Sunday afternoon the 20th start looking better – we get a clean surface with cross-offshore wind, and the swell bumps up just a touch to 2 feet from the SW. The energy is moderate (around 211 and 243). It’s surfable but still very small. The crowd factor here is something to keep in mind – this spot gets crowded often, so you’ll be sharing the water.

The best run in this entire outlook is Monday the 21st. The morning is a bit cross-shore, but the afternoon is clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. Swell is 2 feet from the SW, with moderate energy (258). The water temp is a massive outlier – currently sitting at 71°F, which is 8°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so you’ll be in for a proper treat in warm water. This is the standout, and the conditions are the best we’re going to see. Not big, but clean and rideable.

After that, from Tuesday the 22nd onwards, it’s a mixed bag. There are a few afternoons with clean conditions, but the swell remains small. The energy stays moderate, though the period drops a bit. The Sunday the 27th afternoon delivers a glassy calm, which is a major positive for clean surf, but the swell is only 1 feet from the SSW. Good for a log, but nothing with any punch.

Towards the very end of the window, on the 30th of September, we see a new pulse of swell from the WNW appearing, a bit bigger at 3 feet, but the period is short (9 seconds). It’s a bit of a tease and the conditions are average. The energy is moderate (227), but it’s not the cleanest by Wednesday morning.

So, if you’re keen, aim for the Monday the 21st afternoon. That’s your best shot at a decent, clean session with warm water. Otherwise, prepare for a long wait with mostly small, average waves. The forecast is more reliable in the near term, and the long-range has some promise but is less certain. For now, the small stuff is all we’ve got.

Rusty.

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