Rincon - Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a slow burn. We’ve got a stretch of pretty ordinary conditions coming up, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. We’re looking at a long, quiet period before things finally start to wake up around the middle of next week.

The early part of the forecast is a real grind. From Tuesday the 4th through to about Thursday the 13th, we’re dealing with tiny, weak swell. The energy is low, mostly in the 30-60 range, and that’s about as weak as it gets. The swell direction is coming from the southwest and south-southwest, which is fine for Rincon – Rivermouth, as it’s exposed to that west-northwest direction. But the size just isn’t there. Most mornings are looking cross-onshore, which will chop up what little is breaking. The afternoons are cleaner, but you’re still looking at ankle-biters in the 0.7ft to 2ft range. It’s a time for tuning up the equipment, not for getting barreled.

Now, there’s a window on Saturday the 8th. The afternoon session is looking like the first real bright spot. We’ve got a light cross-offshore breeze, and the wave comment says it’s "expect good surf conditions." The swell is still small, around 2ft, but the period has dropped to 16 seconds, which gives it a bit more push. The energy is moderate, around 200. It’s not going to be a day for the record books, but it will be the cleanest, most fun surf we’ve had in a while. If you’re keen, that’s your first real chance to get a few without battling the bumps.

From there, we slide back into a bit of a lull again. The mornings stay crummy with that light cross-onshore, and the size holds around 1ft to 2ft. The energy fluctuates, but nothing gets over about 165. The Thursday morning the 14th starts to show a little more life, with energy climbing to 255, but the conditions are still marginal.

Then, the weekend. The 15th and 16th of August are your standouts. This is what we’ve been waiting for. The swell finally pushes up to 3ft, coming from the south-southwest, with a period of 16 seconds. The energy jumps to a moderate 411. That’s a proper pulse of energy. More importantly, the wind is looking cross-offshore and light, which means clean, glassy lines off the point. The morning of Saturday the 15th looks best, with the lightest breeze. The afternoon on Saturday and both sessions on Sunday the 16th are still good, with clean conditions and 2ft to 3ft swell, though the energy drops a bit. This is the time to clear your schedule. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and it’s fun. The point will be working properly.

After that, things taper off again. The 17th and 18th are back to smaller, 2ft to 2ft surf, but still clean in the afternoons. There is a weird blip on Tuesday the 18th afternoon where the period drops right off to 6 seconds and the swell jumps to 7ft, but the energy is only moderate at 415. That’s a short-period windswell, and on a point break like this, it’s going to be messy and all over the place. More for the experienced heads if anything, but it doesn't look like a classic Rivermouth day. The week after that looks to be back to small and average.

So, to sum it up: get through the first week, keep an eye on Saturday the 8th, but circle the 15th and 16th of August in big letters. That’s your window. The water is running about 70°F at Rincon – Rivermouth, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so the wetsuit can be a bit thinner. Crowds are always possible at a spot like this, so get there early for the clean ones.

Rusty out.

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