Rincon - The Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Looking at the 16-day window for Rincon - The Cove, it’s a tale of a long, drawn-out run of small, clean waves with a few standout windows where the energy picks up just enough to make it worth a paddle.

The overall pattern is for a consistent but very small swell, mostly from the SSW to SW. The water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 71°, so you can leave the thick suit at home.

The first few days, from Wednesday the 12th through to the weekend, are a grind. The swell is tiny, hovering around 1ft to 2ft, with combined energies mostly in the 100 to 240 range (moderate). The silver lining is that the afternoons consistently clean up with a light cross-offshore breeze, giving you clean, glassy faces. The mornings are often a bit messy with cross or cross-on winds. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working hard for small, weak waves.

The best bet on offer is the afternoon of Saturday the 15th. The swell bumps up to 2ft from the SSW with a period of 16 seconds—that’s a long-period groundswell that will wrap nicely into the point. The cross-offshore breeze at 9 mph will keep it clean. The combined energy sits at 240 (moderate), which is the highest in the early window. It’s not big, but it’s the best shape and power you’ll see for a while. The Cove is a consistent point break, so there will be waves to be had, but keep in mind it can get crowded here on a Saturday.

The following week, from Monday the 17th to Tuesday the 25th, is more of the same: small, clean afternoons. The swell stays tiny, mostly 1ft to 2ft. The wind remains light and cross-offshore in the afternoons, so the conditions will be beautiful, but the power is lacking. The morning of Thursday the 20th is a write-off with poor surf conditions.

The next real standout doesn’t come until the final weekend. The afternoon of Saturday the 22nd shows a slight shift, with the swell swinging to the west at 2ft and a shorter period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is 154 (moderate). It’s a bit more of a windswell, but it’s clean.

Then, on Sunday the 23rd, we get a late burst of quality. The swell is only 1.0ft, but look at the period—19 seconds! That’s a very long-period groundswell from the SW. The combined energy is 134 (moderate). This is a classic Rincon scenario: tiny on the face, but the long period will give it surprising push and shape. The morning is clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. Because it’s such a long-period swell, it will wrap beautifully around the point, but it might break a little too straight at the Cove itself. Still, for a point break, this is a gem. The afternoon of the 26th also shows a slight uptick to 2ft from the SSW with a good 16-second period and energy of 201 (moderate).

The run ends on Thursday the 27th with a cloudy morning and a cross-on wind, which kills the quality.

So, if you’re picking your moment, the afternoon of Saturday the 15th is the most balanced day for size and conditions. For the true connoisseur, the morning of Sunday the 23rd offers the most intriguing quality with that crazy long-period groundswell, even if it’s tiny. It’s a long-range call, so less certain, but worth keeping an eye on. The rest of the window is small, clean, and consistent—perfect for a log or a funboard, but not for charging.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change. Rusty out.

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