Rincon - The Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk in feet and miles per hour. This is Rusty, and the outlook for the next couple weeks is looking a bit thin. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first stretch is pretty much dead.

Starting Friday the 11th, the water temp is sitting at about 71°, which is a full 8° warmer than normal—that’s a huge anomaly and tells you how off the pattern is. The swell is tiny, only 2 ft from the southwest, with a long 15-second period but really weak energy (147). Wind is light but cross-shore, and it’s all poor conditions. This runs through Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th. Swell bumps up to 3 ft from the west on Sunday, but the period drops to 9 seconds, so it’s short-period and weak. Combined energy is still weak (around 150-180). The afternoons clean up a little with a cross-off wind, but the waves are ordinary at best.

The whole week stays in this rut. Swell stays small, 1 ft to 3 ft, with short periods or weak energy. A few afternoons see clean wind but nothing worth writing home about.

Then around Sunday the 20th afternoon, we get a bit of life. Swell is still only about 2 ft from the southwest, but the period stretches to 18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 244—that’s the first moderate energy we’ve seen. Winds are light and cross-off, making for clean conditions. Monday the 21st holds that energy, with combined readings around 207-220. This is the best of the forecast, but it’s still small.

The standout spot is Rincon - The Cove. It’s a consistent point break, and while the swell direction from the southwest isn’t its ideal north-northwest angle, the clean afternoon winds and the energy bump on the 20th and 21st make those the go-to sessions. Expect waves around waist-high, with that long 18-second period making the lines a bit more defined, but the size keeps it mellow.

After Tuesday the 22nd, the energy fades again, and we’re back to tiny swells and weak readings through the end of the month. The second week is less certain, but it doesn’t look promising.

Honestly, it’s a lean stretch. If you’re itching to paddle, hit the Cove on the afternoon of the 20th or the 21st with a longboard. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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