Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about the next couple of weeks. It’s a tale of two halves, and the first half is a proper grind. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions with only a few glimmers of hope, and the real juice doesn’t show up until the second week, and even then, it’s not a clean-cut winner.

The next week is a write-off. From the 5th through the 11th, we’ve got a persistent run of onshore and cross-onshore winds, mostly from the west and northwest. The swell is there, but it’s sloppy, short-period wind swell, and the energy is just getting chopped up. On the 5th, we’ve got a fresh breeze and lumpy conditions with a 6ft WNW swell, but it’s a messy 6-second period. Not worth paddling out for. The 6th drops off completely – tiny and onshore. The 7th brings a bit more energy but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. The 8th and 9th see the energy jump a bit, with the 9th morning showing a 5ft W swell and moderate energy (432), but it’s still cross-onshore and chopped up. The 10th and 11th are no better, with small, messy waves and onshore winds. Basically, forget it until the 12th.

Now, the 12th of August is where things start to get interesting, but it’s a tease. Thursday morning, we finally get a clean look – a light cross-offshore wind from the SSE with a 4ft WSW groundswell at 10 seconds. The energy is moderate (277), and it’s clean. That’s the first real window, but it's gone by the afternoon when the wind swings onshore.

The next real standout, and the one I’d circle on the calendar, is the 13th of August, Thursday afternoon. We’ve got a 7ft W swell rolling in, with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is pumping hard at 895 – that’s a strong, powerful swell. The wind is light and cross-onshore, which is a bit of a bummer, but it’s light enough that it shouldn’t totally wreck it. This is a big, powerful groundswell for Aileen’s (a reef break), and as a reef, it can handle that size. The problem is the wind. It’s not offshore, but light cross-onshore is better than a fresh blow. The morning before, on the 13th, is also worth a look with a 6ft W swell and a light cross-shore wind, but the afternoon is the bigger, more powerful one. This is the best quality surf on offer, but it's not perfect. The period is 10 seconds, which is good, but it’s not a super-long period groundswell.

After that, it’s a bit of a letdown. The 14th drops back down, and the 15th through the 17th are back to onshore slop with fresh breezes. The 18th is a big one, but it’s a problem. We’ve got a massive 10ft W swell with strong energy (1628) on Tuesday morning, but it’s straight onshore with a fresh breeze. That’s not a surf forecast; that’s a washing machine. At over 8ft, this is expert-only territory anyway, but with that wind, it’s just a mess. It’s the kind of day that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The 19th of August brings another small window – a 4ft W swell with light cross-onshore winds and moderate energy (270). It’s okay, but nothing special. The models have it pinned as marginal.

So, here’s the bottom line. The first week is a total loss. Don’t even bother. The two best days are the 13th of August, with that solid 7ft W groundswell with strong energy, and to a lesser extent, the morning of the 12th. The 18th is big, but it’s blown out. The 19th is a last-ditch option. Remember, this is a reef break that’s inconsistent, so you need the conditions to line up perfectly. The 13th afternoon is your best bet, but it's not a classic. The long-range stuff for the 18th and 19th is promising in size, but the wind models are dodgy, so treat those as a roll of the dice.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that 13th. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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