Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at the charts for Aileen’s over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. The forecast is showing a whole lot of nothing for a long stretch, and even when the swell finally shows up, the conditions are going to be a battle.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a massive gap. From now until late July, there’s just no surf worth talking about. We’re talking about a full week of flat, weak conditions. The first hint of any real energy doesn’t show up until Saturday the 25th of July, and even then, it’s not looking pretty.

The standout, and really the only window of significant swell, arrives around Sunday the 26th of July. A solid, moderate energy (395) groundswell from the west-northwest fills in, hitting about 5 ft. This is a real reef set-up, and the period is a nice 9 seconds, so there’ll be some proper shape. But here’s the rub – the wind is a fresh cross-onshore breeze from the northwest at 19 mph. It’s going to be lumpy and bumpy, making it a real grunt session. The water temp is sitting at about 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re getting worked.

The swell builds even more into Monday the 27th, with waves pushing 7 ft and a combined energy of 690. That’s a serious amount of power. But again, the cross-onshore wind is howling at 19 to 22 mph. For the experienced crew at Aileen's, this is where it gets heavy. At over 8 ft, this is strictly for experts only. The reef will be doing its thing, but the chop will make it a messy, challenging paddle.

After that, the energy fades through the end of July and into August. The winds remain onshore or cross-onshore, and the quality never really cleans up. There’s a small pulse of energy on Monday the 3rd of August, with 4 ft waves from the west, but it’s accompanied by a light cross-onshore breeze and a short period of 8 seconds, so it’ll be weak and choppy. Honestly, for the whole 16-day window, if you’re not driving a kite, the paddle surfing is going to be a write-off. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Bottom line: there’s a heavy, powerful, messy window on the 26th and 27th of July for the big dogs. Everything else is a flat, blown-out bust. Keep your eye on the charts, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty, signing off.

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