Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, this stretch is a bit of a heartbreaker. For a slab like Aileen’s, which is a serious reef, it needs everything to line up. For most of the forecast, the wind is howling from the wrong directions, which will put a real chop on it. We’ve got plenty of energy coming through, but for the first week or more, the conditions just aren’t going to cooperate for a clean, paddleable session.

The first real chance we get is on Sunday, the 20th of September. There’s a morning window where we get a clean breeze from the SSE, coming cross-offshore, with a 6ft (1.9m) W swell. The combined swell energy is moderate here at 984. It’s still a bit tricky, with a “marginal” tag, but it’s the first breath of hope in a long, windy spell. The crowd factor often comes into play here, so you won’t be alone if it cleans up.

The standout of the whole run looks to be Tuesday, the 22nd of September. The morning session has a clean cross-offshore breeze from the SE, with a 5ft (1.6m) W swell. The water is “a touch warmer than normal” at 61°F (16°C) for this time of year, which is about one degree warmer than average. The real kicker is that afternoon session. The wind drops to a whisper, a slight air from the NNW, making it glassy light cross-shore. The swell is up to 6ft (1.8m) and the period stretches out to a very long 15 seconds. That is proper groundswell energy, with a combined energy of 1695. For a reef like this, that long period is going to produce some beautiful, heavy lines, though it might make the takeoff a bit more critical. That is the one to circle on your calendar.

Wednesday the 23rd has a morning clean one at 5ft (1.6m) but the wind is a bit stronger, and the energy isn't as solid. After that, we get a few days of average conditions before another interesting one on Thursday the 24th of September. The afternoon brings a 10ft (3.0m) WNW groundswell, clean, cross-offshore breeze. That’s big. At over 8ft (2.5m), this is expert territory only. That’s a lot of water moving around a shallow reef.

After that, the energy fades quickly. By the 25th we’re looking at tiny 2ft (0.6m) waves, and the wind comes back onshore to finish the run. The weekend of the 27th and 28th is a write-off with fresh onshore winds in the 19-28 mph range.

So, the bottom line: sit tight through the week of wind. If you’re a solid surfer, the morning of the 20th might be worth a look. But the *true* standout, the one to build your plans around, is Tuesday the 22nd of September. Aim for that afternoon glass-off. It’s a very long period groundswell with light wind. That’s the sweet spot.

Rusty.

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