Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one to write. We’re looking at a 16-day window for Aileen's, and honestly, it’s a bit of a desert out there.

The overall pattern is one of persistent small, weak swell and almost constant cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. The wave energy is low throughout, with combined energy values sitting mostly in the teens to seventies, well below 100 – that’s weak, unenthusiastic water. The water temperature is 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s slightly above average.

The first real chance to even think about paddling out comes right at the end of the first week. We have a gap of about nine days with no real recommendations. The first decent-looking window is on Friday, July 24th morning. The wind is forecast to go glassy, with a small 1.0ft WNW groundswell running at 10 seconds. It’ll be clean, but it’s tiny. That’s about as good as it gets for a while, but it’s not exactly a standout.

Then we roll into the following week. By Monday, July 27th, the swell starts to pick up a little, with a WNW swell around 3ft-3ft and a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy finally climbs above 100 (132 to 218), indicating moderate energy. But here’s the kicker – the wind is howling onshore from the WSW, blowing 22-25 mph. That’s going to be a right mess. It’s not a day for a surfboard; it’s a day for a kite. The setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The biggest swell of the period shows up around Tuesday, July 28th morning. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the W with an 11-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 382 (moderate to strong). On paper, for Aileen's, that’s a serious amount of water. But the wind is howling onshore from the WSW again at 22 mph. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” and I believe it. It’s a classic case of a swell that wants to be epic but is getting completely torn apart by the wind. This is strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle.

After that, things settle back down. The last few days of the month and into the start of August see the wind back off. Thursday, July 30th and Friday, July 31st have clean, cross-offshore winds and a small 2ft WNW swell. The energy is weak again (40-74), but it'll be rideable. Saturday, August 1st morning looks glassy again with a tiny 1ft NW swell. These are your best bets for a clean, if small, session.

In summary, there’s no true standout. The best quality on offer is the glassy, small surf on July 24th and August 1st, but the power is missing. The biggest swell on July 28th is completely ruined by the wind. If you’re desperate for a paddle, aim for the clean, small days. If you’re holding out for a proper session, the forecast is a bit of a heartbreaker right now.

Rusty.

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