Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s talk about Aileen’s. This is a proper reef slab that needs the stars to align, and looking at the whole 16-day window, the outlook is a tough one. There’s a big gap of poor conditions right at the start, and honestly, it’s a challenging period. We’re looking at a real dry spell before anything even gets close to being worth a look.

From now through the end of July and into the first week of August, the surf is in a poor state. The swell sticks around 6ft to 8ft in the first few days, but it’s coming from the WNW and WSW with a short period of 8 to 10 seconds, and the wind is all cross-on or onshore, making a mess of things. The combined wave energy is moderate to strong, hitting 920 on Sunday the 26th, but with that strong cross-onshore breeze, it’s just a lumpy, blown-out mess. That 8ft is too big for beginners and with the choppy conditions, it’s only for the most experienced and even then, it won't be fun. The water temp anomaly is about average for this time of year.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are more of the same—light rain, lumpy cross-onshore wind, and dropping swell. The energy drops from 610 to 191, still poor. The wind finally backs off by Wednesday the 29th, turning to a gentle cross-shore breeze in the morning and even onshore in the afternoon, but the swell is tiny at 4ft to 4ft and the period is short at 8 seconds. It’s still a no-go. Thursday the 30th has a fresh onshore wind and a 6ft swell with a short period of 7 seconds. The energy is 248, but it’s just blown out.

The first week of August is no better. The swell drops to under 3ft, and the combined energy is weak, down to 34 on Sunday the 2nd. That day starts with a light offshore breeze and clean conditions, but there is no swell to speak of—only 1ft. We then get a bit of a pulse on Monday the 3rd with a 3ft swell from the WNW, a fresh 35 km/h offshore wind, and clean conditions. The energy is 163, which is weak, and the period is 9 seconds. It’s surfable but very small and the offshore wind is so strong it will be hard to get out. After that, the wind turns onshore again and the conditions go backwards. By Wednesday the 6th, we’re down to 1.0ft.

Now, the standout—if you can call it that—is the last day of the forecast. On Sunday the 9th of August, there’s finally something to talk about. The morning shows a 3ft swell from the WSW with a 10-second period, and a clean offshore wind from the ESE at only 10 km/h. The combined energy is 141 (weak), but the forecast says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” For Aileen’s, that’s as good as it gets in this window. The wind will be offshore and clean, which is a major positive for this exposed reef. The swell direction of WSW matches the optimum swell direction for the break, which is a good sign. However, this break is inconsistent, so even a small touch of swell is notable. The water temp is still about average for the time of year.

The following morning, Monday the 10th, has a small 2ft swell and a clean cross-offshore breeze, but it’s barely breaking.

So, to sum it up: this is a 16-day period with one very slim chance. That Sunday the 9th of August morning is the only time the wind and swell line up, and even then, it’s tiny. If you’re a real devotee of the slab and don’t mind a knee-high wave with perfect conditions, that’s your window. Otherwise, the rest is a write-off. Aileen’s is an inconsistent spot, so a blank run like this is more normal for the area.

Rusty.

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