Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've been staring at the charts for Aileen's and I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a cruel tease. This is a famous, world-class reef that demands a big, clean, westerly groundswell, and we just aren't getting the right combo of size and wind. It’s gonna be a long, frustrating wait for most of this period.

We kick off on Saturday the 15th with a tiny 2ft swell from the west, period a short 7 seconds, and the combined energy is a paltry 61. That's weak. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But the onshore wind and that tiny swell mean it's poor surf. That's the story for most of the next nine days. Into Sunday the 16th, the swell tries to jump to 4ft but it's a shifty 6-second windswell from the WSW, and with a fresh cross-onshore wind, it's lumpy and messy.

The first half of the following week sees some promise of size but the winds stay messy. Monday the 17th is still small and onshore. By Tuesday the 18th we get a 5ft swell from the west, period up to 8 seconds, and the energy climbs to 260 (moderate), but it's blown out by moderate onshore winds. On Wednesday the 19th we see the swell really start to build – 6ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, with the energy hitting 565 and then 838 (strong). But again, it's onshore and sloppy. Thursday the 20th holds that 5ft – 5ft range but the wind is cross-onshore or onshore with moderate energy (363-391). Just bad timing. The rest of that week and into the weekend of the 23rd drops right off to a tiny 0.3ft to 1ft. This reef rarely breaks, so these flat spells are normal.

Then, finally, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Late in the second week, we start to see a setup that could get this place going. Thursday the 27th morning brings a nice 4ft swell from the WSW, period a promising 9 seconds, and the combined energy is 236 (moderate). The key detail is the wind is offshore from the east, and the conditions are expected to be clean. This is a genuine standout for the period. Then Friday the 28th is even better on paper: a 4ft groundswell from the west, a longer 10-second period, swelling the energy to a solid 354. With a light offshore breeze in the morning, this is the best option on offer. It could get a little crowded at a spot like this, but when it's on, it's on. Keep in mind, with that period and direction, it's going to love this reef.

But fair warning, for beginners that 3-4ft is fine, but anything over chest-high here is a serious step up. If we get any bigger than that later on, this is strictly a spot for the experts.

Rusty.

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