Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at the only game in town for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a tough one.

We’re looking at Aileen's, a heavy reef setup that needs a very specific West-South-West swell direction to really fire. This spot is notoriously inconsistent, and this forecast is a long, quiet stretch. The outlook begins on the 28th of July, but honestly, it’s a write-off for the first week. The swell is there, but it’s a messy cross-onshore wind, blowing fresh from the SSW at 22 mph, with a weak 5ft swell from the West. The combined energy is just 265 (moderate), but the wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave. That pattern holds through the end of July and into the first week of August. The wind is a constant problem, mostly from the West and Northwest, keeping the surface lumpy and choppy. Swell height never gets above 5ft, and the period is a short, weak 7-8 seconds, so there’s no real push.

We hit a dry spell from the 2nd of August. The swell drops off a cliff. The 2nd sees a tiny 1ft wave from the WSW, and by the 3rd, it’s down to 1ft from the SW. The wind finally goes offshore on the morning of the 3rd, blowing from the ENE at 9 mph, and the surface is clean. But the wave is just too small to hold the reef. The combined energy is a pathetic 28 (weak). The water is about average for the time of year, so no drama there.

This flat spell is the real story. From the 3rd of August all the way through to the 11th of August, there’s nothing to get excited about. Swell heights stay below 2ft, and the combined energy sits in the teens or twenties. The wind is mostly clean or cross-off, but it’s a waste of good conditions. The best part of that run is the morning of the 7th of August, with a tiny 1ft, 10-second period swell from the West and a near-calm North wind. It’s glassy, but it’s a lake.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope way out on the horizon. On the 12th of August, we see a pulse of energy. The swell jumps to 5ft from the West-North-West, but the period is a weak 6 seconds. The wind is light cross-onshore from the WNW, so it’s not ideal. The combined energy jumps to 230 (moderate), which is the most power we’ve seen all forecast. But that short period and the wrong direction for a stand-out session at Aileen's mean it’s still a long shot. It’s promising, but a week out, you wouldn’t bank on it.

For a break that’s this specialized and inconsistent, this is a pretty normal blank run. The good news is, the forecast is clean for long stretches, so if the swell ever fills in properly, it’ll be on. But for now, leave the boards in the car.

Rusty.

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