Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at Aileen’s, a serious reef break that demands your respect. It’s an exposed spot, and the best swell direction is from the WSW. Now, a lot of the time the wind is going to be a real issue, making things messy. The water temp is sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so not a wetsuit drama by any means.

The real heartbreaker here is the wind. For the first week and beyond, we are seeing a relentless run of cross-onshore and onshore winds from the S, SW, W, and NW, often blowing fresh to strong. This is going to ruin the surface on most days, even when there’s decent swell. The energy levels jump around a lot, but the wind just doesn’t play ball.

Let’s look at the best of a rough bunch. Sunday the 6th morning might look clean on paper with a 4ft swell from the WSW and cross-off wind, but the combined energy is weak at 156. It’s not going to have any punch. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 7ft from the WSW, but the wind swings cross-on, and it’s lumpy. Not great.

Monday the 7th sees a bigger 8ft swell from the WSW with a period of 13 seconds, giving it a lot of energy (1780). That’s a strong groundswell, but again, the cross-onshore wind makes it look messy. Tuesday the 8th is a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and messy conditions.

The first real standout, and honestly the only one worth getting excited about, is Wednesday the 9th morning. The wind goes light and onshore, but it’s an onshore wind, not offshore. We have a 5ft swell from the W. It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see for a while. That window is tiny.

After that, it’s back to choppy and messy conditions until we get to Friday the 11th. Friday morning has light onshore wind again with a 5ft W swell. It’s not clean, but it’s less wind-affected than the surrounding days.

For the second week, keep your eye on Sunday the 20th. It’s a long way off, so take it with a pinch of salt, but the morning shows a 4ft W swell with a light cross-off wind from the SE and clean conditions. The energy is modest at 304, but it’s the best-looking window in the whole outlook. Everything else in that week is onshore and blown out.

Honestly, for a break this good, it’s a frustrating forecast. The swell is there, but the wind is the enemy. Unless you are an expert who can deal with ugly conditions, there’s not much to paddle for. If you’re a kiter, the strong onshore winds and decent swell from the 7th to the 9th might look interesting, but for a surfer, it’s mostly a sit-and-wait situation.

Rusty.

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