Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s goin’ on at Aileen’s. I gotta be straight with you – this stretch ain’t lookin’ pretty. We’ve got a long dry spell ahead, so don’t get your hopes up too quick.

We’re talkin’ about a real slow start. From Sunday July 5th right through to the middle of the month, it’s pretty grim. The waves are small – most days we’re lucky to see 3 ft or 4 ft from the west, with periods hanging around 8 to 9 seconds. That’s weak short-period windswell territory, not the kind of groundswell we love at a reef like Aileen’s. The combined energy is pretty pathetic: most readings are under 200 (like 145 to 192), so nothin’ to write home about. And the wind? Mostly cross-onshore from the WSW or SW, 15 to 31 mph, so it’s choppy and messy. Aileen’s wants offshore from the east to really shine – that’s what’s written in the stars for this spot – but we’re gettin’ nuthin’ of the sort.

There is a glimmer way out – on Friday July 17th, we see a pulse of bigger swell: 6 ft in the morning, 5 ft in the afternoon, from the WNW with an 11-second period. The combined energy jumps up to 807 and 584 – moderate to strong energy for sure. But here’s the killer: the wind is 31 mph from the WNW both sessions, either cross-on or onshore. That’s gonna be lumpy, bumpy, and just plain ugly. For a reef break that’s inconsistent anyway, this is a tough ask. Even though the size is there, the quality won’t be. Plus the water’s a touch warmer than normal at 61°F – about 3°F above average – but that’s small comfort.

Honestly, the only session that comes close to surfable is Thursday July 9th afternoon, when we get a 4 ft west swell with 9 seconds and light cross-onshore wind (6 mph). The combined energy hits 229 – still moderate – but with such clean conditions it might be worth a paddle if you’re desperate. The score is a 1 out of 10 though, so temper expectations.

After that, July 13th Monday afternoon shows 3 ft from the west at 11 seconds, cross-off NE wind at 12 mph, clean. The energy is 205 – moderate. But that tiny height on a reef that needs size… it’ll be small and slow. Marginal.

So realistically, there’s no proper standout here. The best bet is the brief window on July 9th afternoon and maybe July 13th afternoon, but don’t expect Aileen’s magic. For the rest, it’s a long wait. I’d be lookin’ at other spots if you can.

Stay patient, and as always, keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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