Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Right, let’s have a look at the surf prospects for Aileen’s over the next 16 days. I’ll be straight with you—this is a tough run. The overall pattern is one of very weak swell and poor conditions, with only a couple of fleeting moments that are barely worth a mention. The water temp is about 62°, which is pretty much average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

The first real chance of anything even close to surfable comes on Wednesday morning, August 12th. We’ve got a small WSW swell pushing in at 4ft, with a period of 9 seconds and moderate energy (203). The wind is light SE cross-off, which would keep it clean. But honestly, with a score so low, it’s only a marginal call. The sea surface is clean, but the swell is just too weak for this exposed reef to really fire. It’s a classic case of maybe one or two rideable waves in a session.

Then on Thursday morning, August 13th, the swell bumps up slightly to 4ft from the WSW, with a better period of 10 seconds and strong moderate energy (294). Wind is light SW cross-on, so not ideal, but again, it’s the best we’ve seen. For a break that is rare, inconsistent, and only suits experts, even this is a long shot. The wave quality is still described as marginal.

After that, it’s back to rubbish. From Thursday afternoon all the way through to the end of the forecast on August 24th, every session is flagged as poor surf conditions. The swell drops back below 3ft, winds get messy, and most days are cross-onshore or onshore. The energy values are mostly in the weak range (under 100), with a few brief spikes into moderate. Periods are short, often 8 seconds or less. There’s a period of 11 seconds on Tuesday August 11th afternoon, but it’s with a cross-on wind and poor conditions.

Even on Monday, August 18th, when the swell gets back to 4–4ft with moderate energy (207), the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-on from the SW. That’s lumpy, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. The same goes for August 24th—same story.

There’s a big gap of consistently no worthwhile surf. From August 12th to the 24th, we’re looking at a 12-day stretch where there is no day that offers both decent swell and clean wind together. If you’re a beginner, stay home. If you’re an expert, check the odd morning with light or offshore winds, but don’t get your hopes up. Aileen’s is an exposed reef that needs a lot more juice than this.

To sum it up: the standout, and I use that word loosely, is Wednesday morning, August 12th. A clean 4ft WSW swell with a cross-off breeze. And maybe Thursday morning, August 13th for the slightly bigger (4ft) bump. After that, it’s a long, quiet fortnight. Sorry, mates.

- Rusty

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