Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day window, and for the first few days, it’s a tough sit. Aileen's is the only spot in the game, and it’s a moody one. This reef break is inconsistent and rarely breaks, so when it’s on, it’s special, but it’s going to take some patience.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t come until the 7th of September, and even then, it’s a rough start. The wind is a mess, with strong onshore flow, and the swell is out of control at over 8 ft. That’s expert-only territory, and the combo of strong breeze and messy conditions means the surf is pretty much unsurfable. The water temperature is around 62°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it through the wind chill.

The 10th of September shows a tiny bit of hope with a 6 ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is still all wrong. It’s a frustrating period.

The real standout comes on the 12th of September. Saturday morning brings glassy conditions. The wind is calm, and the swell is a clean 5 ft from the West with a 10-second period and 426 combined energy (moderate). It’s not massive, but it’s clean. This is the best on offer in the first week. The break is exposed to the swell, and the direction is a good match for the recommended WSW optimum, so it should be linking up nicely. Expect it to be a bit of a local secret, but with the crowds likely here, it might not stay empty.

After that, the 14th and 15th of September have some pulsing 6 ft to 6 ft swell from the West with a 12-second period, which is a longer period groundswell, so it’s got more power. The wind is light, but it’s mostly cross-onshore, so it won’t be perfect. The energy is moderate to strong (909-1080), but it’s a marginal call.

The absolute highlight of the whole forecast is the 17th of September. Thursday morning is glassy, with a 8 ft swell from the West and a 10-second period. The combined energy is a strong 1045, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a heavy swell, over 8 ft, so it’s for experts only. The wind is a slight air, glassy, so it’s going to be pristine. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The 18th and 19th of September also have solid 7 ft to 8 ft swells with clean conditions, but it’s the 17th that looks the best. The 19th also has a 8 ft swell from the WSW, which is right in the optimum direction, and clean cross-offshore wind.

The 20th of September sees the swell drop off, but Sunday afternoon goes glassy again with a 4 ft swell. It’s a good way to close out the window.

Overall, there’s a gap of poor surf from the start until the 12th. The 12th is the first real clean window, and the 17th is the big one. Keep your eye on the 17th.

Rusty

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