Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Aileen's over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest, this forecast is a tough one. We're looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions right out of the gate. The combined swell energy is moderate on Sunday morning, sitting at 282, but it’s a cross-shore wind that’s messing things up, and the swell’s just not coming from the right direction for this spot. Water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 63°.

Sunday the 30th through to Thursday the 4th of September is a real write-off. Strong winds, cross-onshore, lumpy, messy – you name it. There’s plenty of swell, but it’s all blown out. Thursday afternoon sees the swell jump to 10ft from the W with a period of 12 seconds, giving a combined energy of 2426 – that’s some strong energy – but the wind is a strong cross-onshore breeze, making it dangerous and ugly. Friday the 4th gets even bigger with 15ft swell and energy up at 6115, again, it’s onshore. That’s expert-only territory if you’re mad enough, but the quality is zero.

We finally get a tiny glimmer on Saturday the 5th of September morning. Swell drops to 5ft from the W, 10-second period, with a light cross-onshore breeze. The energy’s down to 384, and the forecast calls it marginal at best. It’s still not clean, so don’t get your hopes up.

There’s a long gap of poor or marginal conditions right through to the morning of Saturday the 12th of September. That’s over a week of nothing worth paddling out for.

Then, finally, a bit of hope. On Saturday the 12th of September, the morning looks promising. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the W with an 11-second period (that’s a nice groundswell), and the wind goes glassy – glassy! Combined energy is 238, moderate. This is the standout. The conditions are expected to be good. For a wave like Aileen's, you want that clean, glassy surface. It’s a reef break that’s inconsistent and often crowded, so when it’s on, it’s a gem. The swell direction is W, which isn’t its optimum (WSW), but with glassy wind, you can forgive a little direction mismatch. That morning session is your best bet. After that, it fades quickly.

Sunday the 13th has a little 2ft swell with light offshore wind from the ESE, but it’s small. Monday the 14th is tiny, with a 1ft swell and offshore wind, but not enough oomph.

So here’s the bottom line: a long, ugly stretch of blown-out, messy surf, then a single glassy window on Saturday the 12th of September morning. That’s the one to circle. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but if that glassy wind holds, Aileen's could be special.

Rusty.

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