Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, we’ve got a long, quiet spell ahead. The only real window of surf we’re looking at is a very brief one, and it’s not the kind of swell that’ll have you sprinting for your wetsuit. Things are going to be flat or near-flat for most of the 16-day period, with a significant gap in quality surf.

The only spot with any pulse at all is Aileen's, a tricky, world-class reef that’s exposed and inconsistent. It works best on a WSW swell direction. The first real hope comes Friday morning, July 10th. We’ll see a 3 ft WNW swell, with a period of 11 seconds, pushing a total energy of 241. That’s a moderate energy level. The wind is a light 10 km/h NNE breeze, blowing cross-offshore, so that should keep the surface clean. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild. This is the best on offer for the whole forecast, but it’s still a small wave for a place like Aileen's, and it’s expert-only territory. Don’t expect much.

Later that afternoon, the swell bumps up a touch to 3 ft from the W, but the wind picks up to 20 km/h, and the conditions get more marginal. Not the magic window.

From Saturday, July 11th, onward, the surf drops off a cliff. We’re looking at waist-high or smaller dribble for days on end. The combined energy drops into the double digits, and the wind stays onshore or cross-shore, making things messy. It’s a real flat spell.

Now, there’s a glimmer in the far distance. On Thursday, July 23rd, a big pulse of swell shows up. The morning brings a 7 ft WSW swell with 8-second period and a massive 602 energy reading. By the afternoon, it’s 8 ft with 882 energy. That’s a lot of water moving. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is howling out of the SW at 20-25 km/h, blowing directly cross-onshore. That’s going to turn the lineup into a choppy, lumpy mess. For a reef like Aileen's, that’s just not going to be fun. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle surf one. This continues into Friday, July 24th, with 5-6 ft onshore slop, and Saturday, July 25th, with 5 ft and a 35 km/h cross-onshore, which is just horrible.

So, to sum it up: the only real window is Friday morning, July 10th, for a small, clean wave at Aileen's. The rest is a long, drawn-out flat spell until the final days, which are blown out and messy. If you’re desperate, you might find a knee-high ripple, but for real waves, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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