Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's take a good hard look at what’s cooking for Aileen's.

Honestly, partner, this 16-day stretch is a tough pill to swallow. Right out of the gate, there’s nothing happening. The first week is basically a total washout. The swell is tiny and the wind is all over the place. For a break that’s already inconsistent and needs a lot of the right things to line up, this kind of quiet period is pretty normal, but that doesn’t make it any easier to deal with. The forecasts could shift, but there’s a long gap with no real action.

Starting on Tuesday, July 21st, we’ve got a pathetic 0.4m swell from the west with a short 10-second period. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the NNE, so the surface is clean, but the wave energy is only at 34 – practically nothing. That’s a “poor surf conditions” call, and it stays that way for days. The swell barely moves above 0.5m, and while some mornings are clean, there’s just no power in the water.

There’s a little bump in size around Friday, July 24th, when the swell hits 0.9m from the WNW by afternoon, but the period is short (8-9 seconds) and the wind goes onshore. The energy climbs to 94, but it’s going to be messy and blown out. Not worth getting wet.

The biggest push comes from Saturday, July 25th, through the weekend and into Monday, July 27th. The swell builds to 1.9m by Sunday morning, with the combined energy peak hitting 566 – that’s a solid, moderate-to-strong energy. But the period stays short at 8-9 seconds, so it’s more wind swell than groundswell. The real killer is the wind: NW and WNW at 35 km/h, making it fresh cross-onshore and lumpy. For a reef break like this, that’s a recipe for a chop-fest. Honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one during that whole stretch.

After that spike, it fades fast. By Wednesday, July 29th, we’re back to 0.9m from the WNW with onshore winds. It’s all pretty average.

The only real chance we get is late in the forecast, on Wednesday, August 5th. The swell pushes to 1.2m from the WSW, with an 8-second period. The combined energy is 169 – a modest moderate. But the wind goes offshore from the east at 10 km/h, giving us clean conditions. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s a slight ray of light in a dark period, but with that short period and marginal size, it won’t have the shape or power to make Aileen's truly work. The swell direction isn’t quite the optimum, either.

For Aileen's, the water temperature is 17°, which is about 2° above average for this time of year. It’s a touch warmer than normal, but that’s not going to help the lack of waves.

Bottom line: there’s no true standout day here. The whole 16 days is a disappointment. The only remotely interesting moment is the clean window on August 5th, but it’s weak and the swell doesn’t match the break’s sweet spot. It’s a shadow of what this place can do.

Keep your board in the car, but don’t rush. Conditions can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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