Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at Aileen’s for the next couple of weeks. I’ve got to be straight with you – this is a dry spell, plain and simple. Looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s not a single moment where I’d point you to the water. The first recommendation doesn’t come until July 24th, and even then, it’s a total bust. We’ve got a run of poor surf conditions that stretches all the way through the first week and into the second.

Let’s walk through it. Starting Friday morning, July 24th, the swell is a tiny 2 ft from the WNW with a period of just 10 seconds, and the combined energy is weak at 59. The wind is howling onshore from the W at 12 mph, and the water temp is 62°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s a write-off. That afternoon isn’t any better – 3 ft, messy, and still onshore. Saturday, July 25th, the swell jumps a bit to 6 ft from the W, but with a short period of 7 seconds and a fresh breeze of 22 mph, it’s just lumpy, choppy crap. The energy climbs to 274, but with the wind and short period, it’s not even worth a look for paddle surfing – honestly, it’s more of a kite setup if you’re into that.

Sunday, July 26th, the swell hits 7 ft from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, and the energy jumps to 826 – that’s moderate wave energy. But the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 22 mph, and the wave comment says “fresh cross-onshore and lumpy.” You’d be fighting all day, and the waves would be a mess. For beginners, that 7 ft is too big, and for everyone else, it’s just ugly. The rest of the week is more of the same: Monday, July 27th, 5 ft with cross-onshore SW winds; Tuesday, July 28th, 4 ft to 5 ft, still cross-onshore; Wednesday, July 29th, drops to 4 ft, still with a gentle cross-onshore breeze. The water temp anomaly is normal, so no surprises there.

There’s a glimmer of clean conditions on Thursday, July 30th, with a tiny 2 ft swell from the W and a slight air from the NE – the wind is cross-offshore and it’s described as “clean.” But the swell is too small to do anything with, and the energy is only 54. The same thing happens on Friday, July 31st, with 2 ft. Saturday, August 1st, is clean again but with a 1 ft swell from the SW and a period of 9 seconds – energy is a paltry 36. The second week from August 2nd onward is a bit of a blur of small, weak swells, and even when we get a longer period of 14 seconds on August 4th, the swell is only 1.0 ft, and the wind is cross-onshore. The energy on that Tuesday afternoon picks up to 164, but it’s still choppy. Late in the period, August 8th sees a 3 ft swell from the WSW with a period of 11 seconds and energy of 249, but the wind is onshore, so it’s messy.

So, the bottom line: Aileen’s is an inconsistent spot, and this run is a classic blank stretch for the area. It’s a reef break that needs a good swell from the WSW to light up, and we just don’t get that alignment. The winds are nearly always against us, and the swell is either too small or too short-period to do anything. There’s no standout here – not even one. Hang tight, the forecasts can change, but for now, you’re better off doing something else.

Rusty.

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