Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s take a look at Aileen’s here. This is a tricky reef setup that really needs things to line up, and to be honest, the next little while is looking pretty bleak. The whole 16-day window is just a struggle for decent surf. The water is sitting at 61°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

We start off with Thursday, July 23rd, and it’s tiny. Like, 1ft of weak, short-period swell from the west. The combined energy is barely a whisper at 13 (weak energy). There’s a light NNE breeze in the morning keeping it clean, but that’s about the only positive. It’s just not enough to push over the reef. The afternoon gets a cross-on wind, and it’s completely flat.

Friday, July 24th, sees a tiny bump to 2ft in the morning, the swell direction shifts a bit to WNW, and the period stretches to 10 seconds, but the wind is straight onshore at 12 mph. The energy is still low at 58. It’s a write-off. The afternoon gets worse with a stronger onshore blast.

The weekend brings the biggest swell, but it’s a mess. Saturday, July 25th, we get some 6ft to 6ft swell from the west-northwest and west, but it’s getting hammered by a fresh onshore breeze at 19 mph. The combined energy is moderate to strong (438 to 473), but with that wind, it’ll be a choppy, blown-out wall. This is a reef that needs clean conditions, and this is the opposite. For a strong, experienced surfer, it’s still a paddling nightmare and not fun.

Sunday, July 26th, is the biggest, with 7ft swell and combined energy jumping to 849 (strong wave energy). The period is 9-10 seconds, so it’s not a proper groundswell. But the wind is a strong cross-onshore at 25 mph. That’s howling. This is way too big for beginners, and even for experts, it’s going to be a howling mess. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The following week, from Monday, July 27th, through to the end of the month, the swell drops back down to 3ft to 4ft, and the wind is a constant cross-on or onshore. The energy is moderate (108 to 313), but the quality is poor. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday, July 29th, morning where the wind goes cross-shore with a gentle breeze and the swell is 4ft, but it’s still only a 1 out of 10 – marginal at best. It’s not worth getting excited about.

Into the first week of August, things get even smaller. From August 1st to August 5th, we’re looking at swell heights of 1ft to 2ft, with the wind mostly onshore or cross-on. The combined energy is weak (19 to 76). Nothing to see here.

The very end of the window, on Thursday, August 6th, morning, shows a glassy 0.7ft swell from the west with a 10-second period and zero wind. The energy is just 10 (weak). It’s a beautiful flat calm, but absolutely no surf. The afternoon picks up a 2ft windswell from the south with a 4-second period, which is just wind chop.

So, the reality is this: there are no standout days. The only thing that gets close to a recommendation is that Wednesday, July 29th morning, and even that is a generous 1 out of 10. The rest of the 16 days are a complete blank. It’s a tough stretch for Aileen’s. If you’re a local, you know it goes quiet sometimes. Just wait for the next proper groundswell and a clean offshore wind. That’s the only time this reef works.

Rusty.

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