Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for Aileen’s over this run. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this is a real tough spell. Aileen’s is a world-class reef, an advanced wave that needs very specific conditions, and for the next 16 days, we just aren’t getting them. For almost the whole outlook, the conditions are poor, and there’s a massive, total blank run of un-surfable conditions stretching from the start all the way through.

The water temperature is sitting at 61°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Right off the bat, from July 6th through July 10th, we’ve got west-southwest winds blowing onshore or cross-onshore every day. That makes for choppy, bumpy faces. Swell heights are around 4 ft to 4 ft from the west, but with moderate energy and shorter periods of 8 to 10 seconds, it’s not going to groom into the clean lines that Aileen’s needs.

On the 11th and 12th of July, the wind swings to a cross-offshore direction from the northeast, which cleans the surface up nicely. But here’s the problem—the swell completely disappears. We’re dropping to heights of 1 ft to 2 ft. The combined energy crashes down. That’s barely a ripple. For Aileen’s, that’s not enough to break over the reef.

From the 13th of July through the 17th of July, we get proper offshore winds and even a glassy period on the afternoon of the 17th. But the swell is a ghost. Heights are only 0.3 ft to 2 ft. The energy figures are tiny. Even though the period on the 13th spikes to 20 seconds—which signals an incredibly long groundswell, usually magic for a reef—there’s just no height to push it through. It’s not surfable.

The 18th and 19th of July bring a little more energy back, with swell heights up to 2 ft and periods of 11 to 12 seconds. There are some clean setups, especially the glassy conditions on the 19th afternoon. But the swell is still well under 3 ft. For a standout wave like this, you need more push.

After that, we roll into the 20th and 21st of July with westerly onshore winds and fresh cross-onshore breezes, with tiny 0.9 ft to 1 ft swell. There’s nothing to get excited about.

If I’m being straight with you, there is no standout period. There is no good option in this 16-day window. Aileen’s is an inconsistent spot that rarely breaks at the best of times, but this is a prolonged flat spell. Don’t hold your breath.

Hang in there—it never stays flat forever. Rusty.

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