Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at Aileen’s, that heavy reef slab that only the brave paddle out for. The forecast is pretty grim for a long stretch—basically from the start all the way through to mid-July, it’s a write-off. Cross-onshore winds, messy chop, and poor surf conditions day after day. You’d be better off waxing your board and staring at the ceiling. That’s a solid two-week gap of nothing worth paddling for.

Then, out of the blue, Sunday the 19th of July morning rolls in with a bit of a tease. The wind drops to glassy—dead calm, zero breeze—and the swell jumps to 7 ft from the west. Period’s only 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period pulse, not a long groundswell, but that combined energy reading of 518 means there’s some real grunt behind it. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” and with that glass, you could have clean, hollow walls peeling across the reef. Water temp’s sitting at about 61°, a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. Keep in mind, Aileen’s is an advanced-only wave, and it’s inconsistent—meaning it needs the right alignment. The optimum direction is west-southwest, and this swell is coming from due west, so it’s a good match. But with crowds listed as “often,” you won’t be alone out there. This is the one standout of the entire outlook, but it’s a narrow window—by Sunday afternoon, the wind goes onshore again and it’s marginal. Monday the 20th looks blown out too. So if you’re an expert and you can nail that Sunday morning glass-off, that’s your only shot in a sea of mediocrity.

Signing off, Rusty.

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