Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a unique one, looking at Aileen’s. This is a world-class reef break, a real heavyweight, rated a solid 5/5 but it’s inconsistent – it doesn’t fire all the time. And the whole 16-day window is a tough one. The water’s sitting at 61°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Right at the start, Thursday afternoon (9 July), there’s a small 4ft swell from the west but with a light onshore wind and the wave comment says it’s marginal. We only got a 1 out of 10. The combined swell energy is only 224 (moderate), but the onshore wind ruins the shape. Friday morning (10 July) looks a bit cleaner – swell drops to 3ft from the WNW, period pushes to a nice 11 seconds, and we get a cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. That’s a promising combo, a clean window with good shape potential despite the small size, with moderate energy at 241. But Friday afternoon goes cross and lumpy, score drops to zero.

That’s pretty much the story for the next week. From Saturday (11 July) right through to Wednesday (15 July), wave heights stay tiny – 2ft down to 0.7ft – and the wind is either cross-off or offshore but the swell just isn’t there. Energy values fall below 100 (weak). Late Sunday afternoon (12 July) has a sweet 1ft swell with a 7-second period and clean offshore wind from the east, but there’s simply no power. It’s a glassy but flat spell.

Tuesday (14 July) and Wednesday (15 July) keep that pattern: clean wind but no real swell to work with. By Thursday morning (16 July), it’s completely glassy – 1ft, 8-second period – dead calm, but flat.

Then we see a change from Friday (17 July) onward. The swell starts to build, but the wind turns nasty. Friday afternoon brings a 4ft WNW swell at 6 seconds with a fresh cross-onshore wind; energy climbs to 143 (moderate) but it’s lumpy and messy. Saturday (18 July) gets more interesting – afternoon sees a 5ft WNW swell with an 11-second period, energy jumps right up to 467 (strong to very strong). But again, it’s cross-onshore and lumpy. Sunday (19 July) pushes bigger, around 5ft to 6ft, period short at 7-8 seconds, strong breeze cross-onshore, energy at 269 to 384 – strong, but ugly. That kind of size and wind at a reef break like Aileen’s isn’t going to be clean.

Monday (20 July) holds that size (~5ft) with a light cross breeze in the morning and a weak 1 out of 10 – marginal tide or just poor conditions – and then back to messy cross-onshore in the afternoon. The energy stays high (385). Tuesday (21 July) and Wednesday (22 July) settle a bit to 4-4ft from the west/west-northwest, but the wind is cross-onshore or onshore, keeping things choppy or just messy. We get energy in the 190-228 range. Thursday (23 July) shows bigger energy again – 5ft west swell, 9-10 second period, but with a steady onshore, energy peaks at 688 (very strong), but the quality is poor.

Right through to Friday (24 July), it’s the same deal: moderate swell, moderate to fresh cross-onshore wind, poor surf conditions. There is some significant swell energy at times, but Aileen’s really needs that offshore wind to shine. With the wind mainly cross-onshore or onshore through this whole period, the setup is more interesting for serious tow-surfing or maybe even kite surfing than a clean paddle session. It’s a brutal outlook: swell comes, but the wind never lines up right.

It is what it is. This stretch looks like a write-off. Aileen’s is going to stay quiet for now.

Rusty.

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