Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Aileens, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s looking pretty grim for the most part. The next week and a half is going to be a write-off for most of us. We’re looking at a lot of onshore and cross-onshore wind, lumpy, messy conditions, and just poor surf. The swell energy is there at times, but it’s all over the place and the wind is just killing it.

The first real window we have to talk about is the 13th. The morning of the 13th (that’s a Sunday) sees the wind swing around to a cross-offshore, and it cleans things right up. The swell is only around 4ft from the W, and the energy is moderate at 345, but it’s clean. It’s not going to be big, but it could be the best of a bad bunch for a paddle. It’s an inconsistent spot, so you’ll be waiting for the sets, but if you’re desperate, that’s your morning. The afternoon drops off to a small 3ft and the wind goes cross, so it’s less interesting.

Then we hit a proper dry spell. From the 14th right through to the 21st, the forecast is just a barrage of poor conditions. There’s swell, and on the 19th we see a real spike in energy, hitting 3297 with a 13ft swell, but it’s cross-on and the guidance says it’s marginal at best. That’s just too big and messy to be fun here, and it’s still got a bunch of wind on it. For a lot of this stretch, it looks like it might be more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

The one standout in the whole 16-day run is the 22nd. That Tuesday morning is looking like the day. The wind goes offshore, light at 10 km/h from the east, and the water is going to be glassy. The swell is 5ft from the west, with a period of 8 seconds, and an energy reading of 305, which is moderate. Aileens is an advanced reef break that needs the right direction, and this is it. The glassy conditions on a well-exposed reef like this is what we live for. It’s inconsistent, so the sets will be far apart, but when they come, they’ll be clean. That’s the one to circle. The afternoon holds similar promise, with a 5ft swell and glassy conditions, but the period is still short.

The following couple of days, the 23rd and 24th, have some cleaner windows in the mornings with cross-offshore winds again, but the swell drops a touch and it’s just not as clean or as powerful. It looks like it’ll be worth a paddle if you’re keen, but Tuesday the 22nd is the one with the best combination of size, glass, and good direction. It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising, not a for sure thing, but that’s our best call.

The water temp is running a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, which is nice.

Anyway, that’s the long and short of it. It’s gonna be a test of patience, but the 22nd is looking like the payoff.

Rusty.

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