Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight up front. I’m looking at a 16-day window for Aileen’s, and to be honest, it’s a tough stretch. This is a world-class reef break, an advanced wave, and it needs the stars to align. The problem is, for the entire forecast period, the conditions are just not cooperating. The swell is mostly small, the wind is almost always junk, and the quality is poor. We’re looking at a long, grim run here.

The first real chance of anything rideable is a bit of a tease. On Thursday, August 6th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the west with a short, weak 5-second period. The combined energy is a measly 38, and it’s onshore. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. It stays like this for days. Friday the 7th sees a little more push, with a 4ft west swell in the afternoon, but the wind is onshore and the energy is still moderate at 251. It’s poor surf.

The weekend and the following week are a write-off. We get a few mornings with cleaner conditions, like Monday the 10th with a slight offshore breeze, but the swell is only 3ft with a combined energy of just 82. It’s too small to do anything at Aileen’s. The wind is all over the place – cross, cross-on, onshore – and the wave state is consistently described as choppy or lumpy. There’s no real window.

The closest we get to something interesting is a couple of spots in the second week. On Wednesday, August 19th, the swell jumps to 6ft from the west, with a period of 10 seconds and a combined energy of 549 – that’s a strong, powerful swell. But the wind is a strong onshore breeze at 25 mph, with rain. It’s described as “strong cross-onshore and messy.” For a reef break like this, that’s a total no-go. It would be a dangerous, blown-out mess. The next day, Thursday the 20th, is much the same story with strong onshore winds and rain.

Look, I hate to say it, but there is absolutely nothing in this 16-day period that I would recommend for Aileen’s. The swell windows are either too small, too short-period, or when the energy does show up, the wind ruins it. It’s a blank run. For an inconsistent spot like this, that’s not unusual. It’s a waiting game. The water temp is about average for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when there’s no surf to enjoy.

Rusty.

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