Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for Aileen’s. Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. We’re starting into a long period of frustrating conditions. The water is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only small mercy.

The first real chance of anything surfable is a long way off. Up until the end of August, we’re looking at tiny, weak surf with a mix of onshore and cross-onshore winds that just won’t quit. The swell energy is low, with readings of around 30 to 57, and the waves are small, around 2 ft to 2 ft. It’s going to be choppy and messy. Not worth paddling out for.

We hit a bit of a bump on the 31st of August and the 1st of September. The swell actually picks up to a solid 6 ft, with some moderate energy in the water – around 419 to 535. But the wind is a problem. It’s a fresh cross-onshore, making it lumpy and messy. For a spot like Aileen’s, that’s not going to be clean. If you’re an expert, you might look at it, but the quality is poor.

Then the 4th of September brings a big pulse. The swell is hitting 8 ft from the WSW, with a strong to very strong energy level of 932. This is proper, heavy swell. But the wind is onshore, direct from the W, and the period is only 8 seconds – short-period, wind-driven stuff. For a reef like Aileen’s, this is only for the absolute top-tier experts, and it’s going to be a battle. Not a stand-out session.

The one true glimmer of hope comes on the 5th of September. The Saturday afternoon session sees the swell drop to a still-chunky 5 ft, but the energy is still strong at 477. More importantly, the wind swings around to light offshore from the ESE. This is the key. This will make the waves clean, with that gentle offshore texture. The period is 10 seconds, which is a decent groundswell. This is the best on offer for the whole 16 days. It’s still a solid size for a reef, not for beginners, but for experienced surfers, this is the window. The crowds are often a thing at Aileen’s, so you’ll have company, but if you can get out there, it’ll be the pick of a very poor run.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. The 6th of September goes back to lumpy, cross-onshore winds, and the rest of the second week is a washout with tiny, slow swell and weak energy. The 8th of September shows a 0.7 ft swell, which is barely a ripple.

The forecast is reliable for the near-term, and the long-range potential on the 5th is promising, but still a bit of a wait. The pattern is a long, tough slog, but it does look like it’ll break for a short window. Keep your eyes on that Saturday afternoon.

Rusty.

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