Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – it’s a pretty bleak run for Aileen's right now. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 61°, but that’s the only thing that’s slightly out of the ordinary. The rest of the outlook is a struggle.

Right now, into Friday the 3rd, we’ve got a 4ft west swell but that cross-on SSW wind at 15 mph is making it choppy and poor. The energy is weak (321). Friday afternoon gets worse – a 6ft west-southwest swell but a fresh 22 mph cross-on breeze chops it up. Saturday the 4th stays ugly: 6ft west swell, still cross-on, still lumpy. Sunday the 5th drops a bit to 4ft, but the wind is still cross-on and the energy is moderate (251). Monday the 6th is a write-off – 4ft west swell, 8-second period, weak energy (191), and messy cross-on wind.

Tuesday the 7th sees the wind go onshore from the west at 9 mph, but the swell is still small at 4ft with a weak 201 energy. Not worth paddling out. Wednesday the 8th morning is the first glimmer of something decent – glassy conditions with a light south-west wind, and a 3ft west swell. The energy is weak (127), but it’s clean. Surfable but very ordinary. Thursday the 9th morning has a light cross-off southeasterly at 6 mph, clean face, but the swell is tiny at 3ft with only 101 energy. Still ordinary.

From Friday the 10th through to Monday the 13th, we’re looking at tiny waves – 2ft to 3ft – with weak energy mostly under 150. There’s a few glassy windows (Wednesday 8th morning, Friday 10th morning, Monday 13th morning) but the swell is too small to get excited about. The periods are short too, 8 to 10 seconds, so these are weak windswells, not groundswells.

Tuesday the 14th morning sees a pulse of 5ft west swell with 385 energy, but it’s cross-on from the south-west at just 3 mph, so it’s light and messy. Marginal at best. Wednesday the 15th is back to small and choppy with a fresh 19 mph cross-on.

The only real standout in the whole 16 days is Thursday the 16th morning. Swell hits 8ft from the west (9-second period), with a strong energy of 912. That’s a big number for this spot. The wind is only a light cross-on from the west-northwest at 6 mph, so it’s not too messy. That’s a big, powerful wave – only for experts. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but if that lines up, it could be a serious session. After that, Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th drop back to 5ft–6ft with moderate chop and cross-on wind.

Bottom line: the first week is mostly a waste. The best bet is the morning of Wednesday the 8th for a glassy but tiny wave, or you hold out for that big 8ft pulse on Thursday the 16th. That’s the one to circle on the calendar, but it’s for the experienced crew only. Crowds are often at Aileen’s, and with that big swell, it’ll be busy.

Rusty.

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