Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s get into what Aileen’s is showing us. This spot is a fickle beast, a world-class reef that doesn’t just give it up, and this forecast is a classic example.

The first week is a washout. We’ve got a decent push of swell coming through, but the wind is howling onshore out of the West and Southwest. From Thursday the 2nd through the 5th of July, every session is wrecked by that chop. There’s moderate energy in the water – hitting a strong reading of 557 (combined energy) – but with 20 mph winds, it’s unsurfable. You’ll be watching from the cliff, not paddling out.

After that, the swell completely dies. We’re looking at tiny, weak waves for days. The water temp is about 61°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but that won’t matter much when you’re bobbing on a 3-foot wobbler.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout, the one to wait for, is Monday the 13th of July. A proper long-period groundswell from the West with a period of 13 seconds shows up. The combined energy rockets up to a very strong 903. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and with a light offshore breeze from the NNE cleaning it up, Aileen’s will be the real deal.

This is not for beginners. 6 feet of West swell at that period will jack up steep and heavy over the reef. This is an expert-only wave on a good day, and at this size, it’s serious. The crowds here are often a factor, and on a morning this good, the lineup will be thick with expectant locals.

After that blast, the swell fades out fast. The rest of the second week is mostly small and ordinary, although a few mornings stay clean with easterly breezes, just nothing to get the heart racing. Then on the final day, Friday the 17th of July, there’s another little bump. The swell comes up to 6 feet from the WSW again, the period is a short 6 seconds, but the wind goes dead glassy. The energy is weak (230), and the period is short, so it’ll be soft and crumbly compared to the 13th, but if you’re chasing a clean, mellow wave, it’s the only other real option.

So, to put it plainly: ignore the first ten days of blown-out junk. Mark Monday the 13th of July on the calendar. That’s the session to aim for. Everything else is just watching the ocean do its thing.

Rusty.

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