Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Aileen's.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look pretty grim for this spot. We’re staring down a long stretch of messy, wind-affected surf with hardly a window that’s worth paddling out for. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until the 22nd of September, and even then it’s only a tease. The real standout, the one that’s got my heart thumping a little, is way down the line on the 23rd of September.

Right now, through to the 21st of September, it’s a write-off. The wind is mostly cross-onshore and strong – we’re talking 25 mph or more some days, tearing the surface to shreds. Swell is there, but it’s ugly. The combined wave energy is moderate to strong (like 1145 on the 8th), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Even when the swell drops and the wind lightens, it’s still cross-onshore or just messy. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Now, on the 22nd of September, Tuesday morning, there’s a little flicker of hope. We get a light breeze from the northeast, which is cross-offshore, and the wave comment says "clean". The swell is a modest 4 ft from the west, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is a weak 286. It’s not big, it’s not powerful, but it’ll be the cleanest surf we’ve seen in a fortnight. For a patient surfer on a longboard, it might just be worth a session. But don’t expect much.

The real prize, and I mean the *only* prize in this whole 16-day window, is the 23rd of September, Wednesday morning. Mark it in your calendar. The wind swings to a light offshore from the east-northeast – a glassy, clean setup. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the west-northwest, with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, very long period, packing some serious punch. The combined energy is a massive 2029 – strong to very strong. This is a reef break, remember, and a long-period swell from the west-northwest is its optimum direction. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 62°F.

Now, a word of caution. This is an advanced, inconsistent reef break, and at 7 ft with that power, it’s only for experienced surfers. The long period also means the sets will be fat and powerful, better suited to the point and reef structure here than a beach break. It’s a spot that rarely breaks, so when it does, it’s a special thing. But it can get crowded – and it’s often busy, so you’ll want to be early. This is a promising, long-range standout, but like all forecasts a week and a half out, take it with a grain of salt. The potential is there for a truly epic day, though.

Stay patient, keep your eyes on the 23rd, and don’t bother with the rest. Rusty out.

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