Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a honest look at what’s coming up for Aileen’s. I’ll be straight with you – this stretch of the forecast is a tough one for paddle surfing. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands.

The opening of the outlook, from Thursday the 23rd of July right through to the end of the month, is pretty much a write-off. The swell is tiny, often under 3 ft, and the wind is tearing across from the west or northwest, making a mess of things. It’s choppy and lumpy, and the wave energy is weak – we’re looking at values like 13, 59, and 92 for the combined energy. That’s just not enough to get excited about.

We do see a spike in size around the 25th and 26th of July, with swell heights hitting 6 ft to 6 ft from the west-northwest. The combined energy jumps into the moderate range (311 to 631), but the wind is strong and cross-onshore, hammering the surface. The period is short (7-10 seconds), so it’s going to be a lumpy mess. Not worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on the morning of Thursday the 30th of July. The wind swings around to a light northeast breeze, going cross-offshore, and the water turns glassy. The swell is only 3 ft from the west-northwest, but the energy is low (115), and the wave comment says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s a clean window, but barely a blip. Then it goes back to poor conditions.

Then there’s a gap until the morning of Saturday the 1st of August. That’s the standout. We’ve got a 8 ft swell from the west-southwest with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 1117 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is from the southeast at 15 mph, which is cross-offshore, leaving the surface clean. Now, that’s a big wave for Aileen’s. Over 8 ft means it’s expert territory only. The direction is west-southwest, which is perfect for this reef. It’s a true standout, but remember it’s still a week and a half away, so treat it as promising but not locked in. The water temperature is around 61°, which is about average for the time of year.

After that, the surf drops away again. The 2nd of August has some 5 ft swell, but the wind is onshore or cross-shore, and by the 3rd of August it’s back to tiny, messy waves with energy in the double digits (24 to 89). The final days of the outlook, from the 5th of August onwards, are flat with tiny 1.0 ft to 1 ft swells and strong, lumpy winds. The morning of the 5th offers a moment of glassy calm, but with only 1 ft on offer, it’s not worth a trip.

So, to sum it up: the only real chance in this entire 16-day window is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August. That’s a big, clean, expert-only day at Aileen’s. The rest is a long, frustrating wait. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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