Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. Aileen's is a world-class reef, but this forecast is a total dud. Over the next 16 days, there's just nothing to get excited about. The report is filled with "poor surf conditions" and very few windows that are worth the paddle out.

It kicks off on the 25th of July with a bit of size, but it's a mess. You've got 5ft of short-period, 7-second windswell from the West, but it's getting hammered by a 30 km/h onshore wind. It's choppy, blown out, and just plain ugly. The combined wave energy is a moderate 287, but it's not doing you any favors.

The next couple of days, the 26th and 27th, see the swell jump up to 8ft and 6ft, with a 10-second period, which packs a stronger punch. The combined energy hits a strong 940 on the 26th morning. But the wind is a cross-onshore at 35 km/h, so it's going to be lumpy, bumpy, and borderline un-surfable. The water temp is around 62°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

After that, the wave heights drop off a cliff through the end of July and into August. The period and energy follow suit. The wind shifts around from the South, then West, then North, but it's almost always either cross, cross-on, or onshore. There's a brief moment on the morning of the 4th of August where we get a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the NNE, but the swell is a pathetic 2ft from the NW with a 7-second period. The combined energy is a weak 37. It's clean, but there's just no wave to ride.

For the rest of the run, we're looking at knee-to-waist high dribble from the West and Northwest, with periods all over the place from 6 to 11 seconds. The wind stays on the wrong side of the compass for most of it, with a few more shots of clean conditions on the 8th and 9th of August, but the swell is just too small—3ft to 3ft and weak.

Honestly, for a wave like Aileen's, this is a blank run. There's no standout session, no day to circle on the calendar. If you absolutely had to get wet, the morning of the 4th of August would be the cleanest water, but you'd be bobbing around on a sea of nothing. The forecast is a total write-off for any decent paddle surfing. Given the significant swell that does show up is paired with poor surf quality and strong wind, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

This is a tough one to swallow. A place like this tends not to stay this poor for long, so the forecasts can change, but for now, I’d give this one a miss.

Rusty.

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