Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Aileen’s.

First off, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window from July 16th through to the end of the month is a total write-off for Aileen’s. There’s nothing on the table that’s worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, mostly 0.7 ft to 2 ft, and even when it does bump up a little toward the end of July, the wind is blowing straight onshore or cross-onshore, making a mess of an already super-advanced reef that’s famously inconsistent. Water temp is sitting around 63°F with a touch warmer than normal (anomaly 3°F), but that’s about the only positive – and it’s not saving this outlook.

The first week is a dud: Thursday July 16th through Monday July 21st, morning winds are light cross-off from the NE or NNE, so the surface might look clean, but the swell is barely 1.0 ft with periods around 8–9 seconds – that’s just not enough to push over a reef. Afternoons get a cross-on chop from the NW, making it even worse. Energy numbers are in the teens to low 30s (weak). Zero score across the board.

Things don’t improve. From Tuesday July 22nd to Thursday July 24th, the swell remains pitiful, and the wind turns more onshore. Then on Friday July 24th morning, we finally see a jump – 3 ft at 11 seconds from the W, with combined energy hitting 229 (moderate). But the wind is blowing straight on from the WNW at 12 mph, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions” – that’s a no-go for a slab like Aileen’s. The afternoon and the days that follow (25th–27th) have similar size (3–4 ft) but again onshore winds, making it choppy and messy. The energy stays moderate (140–174), but with the wrong wind direction and the break being inconsistent, it’s not worth the risk.

The last few days (28th–31st) drop back to tiny 1–2 ft, with cross-on or onshore breezes. The only glimmer is Thursday July 30th morning: glassy conditions with a light NE breeze, 2 ft at 9 seconds from the W, energy 92 – but even then, that’s weak and the period is short. It would be a flat, fat, unexciting wave, if it breaks at all.

For an advanced reef that rarely breaks, a blank run like this is actually pretty normal. Don’t hold your breath. The forecasts might change, but right now there’s nothing here for a surfer. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – if you’re into that.

Rusty.

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