Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m looking at the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch for our main break, Aileen's. This is a reef, and a world-class one at that, but it needs the stars to align, and they just ain’t lining up for a while.

The water temp is sitting around 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest rubber, but you’ll still want a decent spring suit.

Let’s start from the beginning. From Monday the 31st of August, we’ve got a small, messy, cross-onshore mess. Swell is around 4 ft from the W with a short period, but the wind is just junk from the WSW, and the combined energy is weak. The whole first week is a write-off, honestly. The wind stays on it or cross-shore, the swell is either tiny or, when it does start to pick up, it’s blown out. By Thursday the 3rd of September, we see a bit of a bump up to 6 ft, but it’s cross-onshore and lumpy. The energy gets moderate, hitting 418 on Thursday morning and 581 in the arvo, but it’s not clean. It’s frustrating.

Then Friday the 4th of September is the biggest we’ll see in the whole window. The morning has 8 ft swell from the W, but it’s onshore and blowing 22 mph. The afternoon is a bit better at 7 ft with a long period of 11 seconds, wind is slightly offshore from the WNW, and the energy is strong at 1086. But it’s still lumpy. It’s too big for beginners, and with the wind, it’s not a standout.

The window is wide open from there. The next eight days are basically dominated by fresh to gale-force winds, constant rain, and even thunderstorms. The swell on the 8th of September hits 8 ft from the W with 1111 energy, but it's a clean, cross-off wind? No, it's still labelled as poor surf conditions. The 9th of September is a total loss with 12 ft swell and near gale winds. That’s a full-on storm, not a surf day. The combined energy hits 2180 on the 9th, which is very strong, but it’s pure chaos. This is more kite-surf territory than paddle-surfing if you ask me.

The second week, from the 12th of September onward, the swell just drops off a cliff. We’re talking 2 ft and less, with weak energy. The wind does go clean and cross-off on the Saturday morning and Sunday, but there’s simply no swell to push. You’d be waiting forever for a dribble.

So, the ugly truth is: there isn’t a single time in the 16 days I’d call a standout. There’s a massive gap from the start all the way through. The best chance you’ll have is probably the Friday the 4th of September morning, but it’s a long shot for a wave that’s as fickle and inconsistent as Aileen's. It’s a rare reef that needs a perfect window, and this forecast is a brick wall.

Stick to the pools, or take a holiday. This one’s a blank.

Rusty

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