Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, because I’ve been staring at the charts for Aileen’s, and honestly, it’s a real mixed bag. We’ve got a 16-day window ahead, but it’s not all smiles.

First off, the water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a big deal, but you’ll notice it.

The first week is pretty grim. From Saturday the 22nd right through to the end of August, the swell is tiny – mostly below 3 ft – and the wind is all over the shop. We’ve got a few mornings with light offshore breezes (like Sunday the 23rd with a 1 ft swell from the W, or Monday the 24th with a 3 ft WNW swell), but the energy is weak. The combined energy on Monday morning is only 164 (moderate), and the period is a middling 11 seconds. It’s surfable, but it’s not going to get the heart racing. There’s a long gap of low-quality, small surf here. Honestly, until the 27th, it’s mostly “poor surf conditions” with low scores.

Then on Thursday the 27th of August, the morning brings a little pulse: 3 ft from the W at 10 seconds, with 120 (moderate) energy and a light cross-offshore breeze. It’s clean, but it’s still small. That’s the best of the first week, but it’s not a standout.

The end of the first week and into the second week gets messier. Friday the 28th sees a jump in size to 5 ft, but the period drops to 7 seconds (short period, weak windswell) and the wind turns cross-onshore, getting choppy. The energy jumps to 237 (moderate), but the quality is poor. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are a write-off with onshore winds and rain.

Now, the real story is in the second week, but it’s a long-range call. Things get big, but it’s not for the faint of heart. From Monday the 31st of August through to Thursday the 3rd of September, we’ve got onshore winds and building swell. It’s bumpy, messy, and poor for surfing.

But then we get to Friday the 4th of September. This is the one that’s got my attention, even though it’s a week away. The swell is 10 ft from the W, with a period of 9 to 10 seconds. The combined energy is massive – 1441 on Friday morning, and 2040 on Friday afternoon (strong to very strong). That’s proper, powerful groundswell. Now, the wind is onshore (WNW), so the surface is going to be a mess. It’s a big, ugly, powerful wave. This is expert-only territory. Anything over 8 ft is only for the experienced, and with the wind, it’s going to be a battle. The long period (10 seconds) is good for shape, but at a reef like Aileen’s, that swell direction from the WSW is spot-on for the optimum. It’s going to be a heavy, powerful, and probably dangerous session. The crowds? Aileen’s is often busy, so expect company.

After that, Saturday the 5th of September is interesting. The morning shows a 7 ft swell from the W at 11 seconds (long period), with a cross-offshore wind from the SSE. The energy is 1096 (very strong). The wind is clean, but that’s a strong breeze. This is the most promising session of the whole window. The long period (11 seconds) means proper groundswell, and with the reef setup, it’ll hold shape. But 7 ft is still big; it’s pushing into expert territory. If the wind holds, it could be the best session of the lot.

Sunday the 6th of September fades quickly with onshore winds and dropping swell.

So, to wrap it up: The first week is a dud. Small, weak, and mostly choppy. The standout is the morning of Saturday the 5th of September. That’s your best bet. The groundswell from the W, long period, clean cross-offshore wind, and very strong energy. It’s a big, quality wave at Aileen’s, but it’s not for beginners. The Friday the 4th is massive and powerful, but dirty. If you’re a confident, experienced surfer, keep an eye on the 5th.

Rusty.

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