Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Aileen's.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. For the first week and a half, there’s plenty of swell rolling in, but the wind is just going to ruin it for us. The whole setup is looking pretty gnarly, with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, messy conditions. The water is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year at 62°, but that’s small comfort when you’re fighting a chop.

We start with a pulse of moderate wave energy (640) on Saturday, the 5th of September, with a 6ft W swell, but that SW cross-on wind is turning it into a washing machine. The afternoon cleans up a bit, but the waves drop to 5ft. It’s still marginal. Sunday, the 6th, is a write-off with a 22 mph S cross-off in the morning and a messy 7ft on Sunday afternoon.

The real beast shows up on Monday, the 7th, with a 8ft WSW swell and a period of 13 seconds. That’s a lot of energy (2329), and it’s pulling in from the optimum direction for this reef, but a 28 mph SW cross-on makes it a total mess. Tuesday, the 8th, is still pumping with 8ft to 7ft of W swell, but the wind is still a problem. This is big, powerful groundswell. For a reef like Aileen's, that long period would normally be a dream, but the wind is just murdering it.

Wednesday and Thursday are smaller, but still not clean. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t arrive until Saturday, the 12th, when the swell drops to 5ft and the wind is only a light breeze. The conditions are still just marginal, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a week.

After that, we get a period of very small surf. The 13th, 14th, and 15th are all pretty weak, with small swells and poor quality. The 16th of September finally shows a little promise on Wednesday morning, with a 5ft W swell, a 11-second period, and a clean cross-off wind from the SSE. That’s a nice window of moderate energy (440) and clean conditions, but it’s still on the smaller side.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is actually the end of the run. On Saturday, the 19th of September, we get a tiny 2ft to 3ft W swell, but the wind goes light and offshore from the ESE. The energy is weak (144), but it’s clean, glassy, and actually surfable. For a fickle spot like Aileen's that’s inconsistent, getting a clean, lined-up wave, even if it’s small, is a treat. The afternoon of the 19th and the morning of the 20th are the only days in this whole 16-day window where the wind is truly offshore.

So, here’s the bottom line: the first week is a bust thanks to the wind. The best surf on offer is not the biggest, but the cleanest. That Saturday, the 19th of September, with the offshore breeze and small, clean swell, is your best bet. The 16th of September morning is also a decent backup. Don’t get your hopes up for the big days; the wind is going to keep them ugly.

Rusty.

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