Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's have a look at what we've got for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, it’s a rough stretch ahead. We’ve got a world-class wave here at Aileen's, a heavy reef slab that needs everything to line up, and for the most part, it's just not happening. The first real chance to even think about it doesn't roll around until Tuesday the 25th of August, and even then, it's a tough one. You’ve got a small 3ft swell from the west, with a period of 9 seconds, but the wind is a cross-off from the southeast at 9 mph. The water’s hanging in at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. It's surfable, but it’s far from the magic we need here.

After that, we hit a massive dry spell. From Wednesday the 26th of August all the way through to the end of the month, it’s just grim. Tiny, weak swells, messy winds, and the call is consistently "poor surf conditions." There’s nothing worth paddling out for.

Things finally start to look different from the 1st of September, but not in a good way. The swell builds, but the wind is just plain ugly. By Tuesday the 1st, we’ve got a 5ft to 7ft westerly swell but it’s getting hammered by a fresh onshore breeze. The energy is ramping up – you can see readings of 322 and 627 – but with that wind, it’s just a crumbly, messy ocean.

The real monster shows up on Thursday the 3rd of September. There’s a big, powerful groundswell – 10ft to 12ft from the west, with a long 12-second period. The combined energy is huge, hitting 2998. But the wind is a strong cross-onshore or directly onshore, making it a total washing machine. This is expert territory size, but it’s going to be blown-out and dangerous. The same goes for the following days: plenty of energy – with readings over 1000 on the 4th – but the wind direction kills it. Aileen's needs that east or northeast wind to be clean, and we just aren't getting it.

The only potential standout, and I say this with a heavy heart, is the 7th of September. By the afternoon, the models are showing a massive 21ft westerly groundswell with that long 12-second period. The combined energy is an insane 10496. But the wind is a near-gale from the west-southwest, cross-onshore at 34 mph. It’s going to be a complete, dangerous, blown-out mess. For any sane paddler, it’s a hard pass. For the big-wave tow crews with balls of steel, it might be the only show in town, but it won't be pretty.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, there is no good surf option. The setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session. The inconsistency here is normal for a spot this fickle; it takes a perfect alignment of swell and wind, and we just don't have it this time. Forecasts can change, but right now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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