Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s cut to the chase. It’s a grim run ahead, folks.

We’re looking at a real flat spell for Aileen’s (a reef break, advanced only, and famously inconsistent – rarely lines up right). Right now, the water’s a touch warmer than normal for the time of year at 61°F. But that’s about the only nice thing I can say.

The next few days are a write-off. Through the end of this week and well into next week, we’ve got tiny, weak swell – nothing over 4ft, most of it under 3ft, and the combined energy figures are mostly in the double digits (weak), with a few days barely cracking 200 (moderate, but still no quality). Winds are nearly always cross-on or cross-off, with only a few brief moments of clean, offshore wind on the 11th and 12th of July, but the swell is just too small to do anything with. Honestly, that little 2ft stuff with offshore wind might look tempting if you’re desperate, but it’s not worth the paddle.

We then hit a proper dead zone from about the 13th of July through to the 21st. Swell heights drop to 0.7ft to 2ft, combined energy plummets to single digits or low double digits. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on, and there’s a glassy moment on the morning of the 17th of July, but with a 0.7ft swell, it’s a lake, not a surf break.

Now, the long range throws a curveball. On the 22nd of July, we see a sudden spike: a 6ft to 6ft swell from the W, with a period of 8 to 9 seconds. The combined energy hits 428 and then 561 – that’s strong to very strong. But here’s the kicker: it’s accompanied by a strong breeze, cross-onshore, or even onshore wind at 25 mph. The wave comment just says “poor surf conditions.” That’s a raw, messy, blown-out beast. For a high-performance reef like Aileen’s, that’s unrideable unless you’re a masochist. It’s a solid week and a half away, so it’s a long-range promise that could easily change, but right now it looks like a skip.

The only real standout? There isn’t one. Not in this window. Everything is either too small, too windy, or both. If you’re a kite surfer and that 22nd of July holds, that NW wind and 6ft swell might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, especially at an advanced, inconsistent reef like this, you’re better off waiting for the next proper groundswell to line up with a clean offshore (E). Patience, my friends.

This is just one of those long, quiet stretches for this spot. The pattern will change, forecasts will shift, but right now? Stay home, wax your board, and watch the forecast.

Rusty.

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