Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Aileen’s over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. Aileen’s is a world-class reef, but it’s notoriously inconsistent. Looking at the run ahead, we’re in for a real dry spell. The first decent sign of life doesn’t pop up until Sunday the 13th, and even then it’s just barely a whisper. For the first few days, the wind is a mess – mostly cross-onshore, often fresh and lumpy. The swell is there, but it’s ruined by the wind. The water temp is right around 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the wetsuit might be a little comfier than usual.

For the true salt dogs, the Sunday morning session on the 13th is the first time we get a look. It’s small, with a 4 ft swell from the W, period at 9 seconds, and the wind is a light breeze. The combined energy is weak (340). The break is still cross-onshore, and the comment says it’s marginal. Honestly, it’s a maybe-at-best spot.

The outlook doesn’t improve much after that. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore for the entire first week, with scores of 0 or 1 across the board. There’s a couple of afternoons with smallish west swell and moderate wind, but nothing you’d paddle out for.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day window is a long-range hope. On Monday the 21st, the morning session shows a light cross-offshore breeze from the SE, creating clean conditions. The swell is 8 ft from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is strong (1073). That’s a solid, powerful wave. But it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the charts. The afternoon of the 21st goes straight to hell with a 28 mph cross-onshore, so you’d be out of the water by lunch.

There’s a late run on the 22nd with a very long period swell (17 seconds) from the WNW, but it’s paired with a strong cross-onshore wind, making it a messy, lumpy mess. That kind of period is pure magic for a reef if the wind is right, but it’s all wrong here.

So, what’s the call? The 21st morning is the only window that really gets my heart pumping. It’s a long way off, but clean conditions, a solid 8 ft swell, and a reef that loves a WSW direction – that’s the one to watch. Everything else is a write-off from a paddle-surfing perspective. If you’re a kiter, the afternoons with strong cross-onshore wind and solid swell might look tasty, but for a surfer, this is a blank run for the most part.

Rusty.

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