Aileen's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the swell window at Aileen's. The overall pattern is messy for a long stretch, but a couple of windows of quality open up if you’re keen to wait.

We start with a tough run. From Tuesday the 15th right through to Monday the 21st, it’s a write-off. The wind is howling from the west and west-northwest, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, with moderate to strong breezes. The swell sits around 5 to 7 ft for most of it, but the energy is weak to moderate and the wind just ruins it. The water is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year at 61°, but you won’t care about that when you’re getting blown off your board. Thursday the 17th sees a big pulse in size, pushing up to 12 ft from the west with strong westerly winds, and the combined energy hits 3594 (strong wave energy), but the "on" wind and poor-surf tag means it’s just not worth it. Even Saturday the 19th, with a lighter westerly breeze, the swell is average and conditions are poor. This gap is about a week of nothing.

Then, on Tuesday the 22nd, things get interesting. This is the standout moment in the period. The swell jumps up to 8 ft from the west, and the period stretches out to a very long 15 seconds. The combined energy is 3148, which is strong. But the real magic is the wind: a light easterly offshore breeze at just 3 mph, making it clean. This is a legit big-wave day for experienced surfers only; anything over 8 ft is expert territory. The long-period swell is perfect for a reef setup like Aileen's, though the long gaps between sets might make paddling out a bit easier. This is your one clear shot if you’ve got the skill and patience.

Wednesday the 23rd offers a smaller follow-up, with 6 ft west swell and a 13-second period, and a cross-offshore breeze keeping things clean. Combined energy is 1226 (moderate). A decent option for a slightly less intense session, but not the main event.

After that, the confidence drops and the conditions get more marginal. Thursday the 24th drops off significantly in size and energy. There is a pulse on Friday the 25th afternoon, with 8 ft west swell and a massive 16-second period. The energy rockets to 4022 (very strong wave energy), and the wind is a clean cross-offshore. This could be another heavyweight session for experts, but being further out, it’s a promising but less certain call.

The last few days of the month drift off into smaller, choppier conditions or onshore breezes. Sunday the 27th morning is interesting with a 5 ft west-southwest swell and glassy conditions, but it’s small. The Sunday afternoon brings a 13 ft west swell, but with cross-shore wind and a short 10-second period, it’s likely a washing machine for all but the most seasoned chargers at a reef.

In short, the long wait is worth it for Tuesday the 22nd. Mark it. If you miss that, Friday the 25th afternoon is your backup.

Stay safe out there, Rusty.

Read more