Inch Reefs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the first few days are a bit of a write-off for decent waves. We’ve got a tiny bit of swell, but it’s not really doing anything special. The real talking point is the water. It’s sitting at 65°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than it should be for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so the water will feel like a warm bath.

We start off on Monday the 13th with a tiny 0.7ft to 1ft swell from the SSW and SW. The wind is offshore, which is good for clean conditions, but the energy is practically nothing – just 51. It’s not really surfable. Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th are more of the same, with weak, short-period windswell at 2ft and 2ft. The energy is a bit better on Tuesday, hitting 155, but the period is only 10 seconds, so it’s just lumpy and ordinary. The wind is light, so it’s clean, but there’s no power in the water.

Thursday the 16th morning shows a bit of life with a 1ft wave from the SW, but the period stretches to 14 seconds. That’s a longer period groundswell, which is a good sign for shape, but there’s just not enough size. The combined energy is only 81. By Thursday afternoon, conditions go downhill with a shift to a light cross-onshore wind, and the energy drops to 31. From Friday the 17th right through to Sunday the 19th, it’s a flat spell. The swell barely registers, with energy readings in the teens and single digits. It’s a real gap of dead water.

We finally see a pulse of energy rolling in on Monday the 20th. The morning is glassy, with a 2ft swell from the west, period 10 seconds, and a combined energy of 67. It’s still small, but it’s a start. By Tuesday the 21st, the morning looks promising. The wind is dead calm, glassy, and we’ve got 3ft of west swell, period 9 seconds, and a moderate energy reading of 155. The conditions are perfect for a small day, but it’s a short window. By Tuesday afternoon the wind turns cross-onshore, and the session is blown out.

Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th sees a building but messy swell. The size increases, getting up to 5ft, and the energy jumps into the 200s and 300s. However, the wind is either cross-onshore or onshore, and the period is a short 8 to 9 seconds. This is not a clean setup. The break is a point, so it’s handling the swell, but the wind is making it ugly. It’s a no-go for a paddle.

Now, the standout. Saturday the 25th of July. The swell jumps up to 8ft from the WSW, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1461 – that’s a lot of power. This is a big, solid swell. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which will create some texture, but at this size, a point break like Inch Reefs can handle it. The period is 10 seconds, which is decent, but for a swell this big, it’s going to be a powerful, heavy wave. The direction is WSW, which is close to the optimum SW direction for this spot. This is only for experienced surfers; 8ft is expert territory. Expect a lot of water moving around. The crowds are something to be aware of here – it’s a spot that can get crowded.

Sunday the 26th drops back to 6ft to 6ft, but the wind is from the south, making it a rough cross-onshore, and the energy is still high at 465, but the quality is gone. The final days, Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, are a flat, choppy mess again.

So, the one to circle on the calendar is Saturday the 25th of July. It’s the only real power session in the whole 16-day window. The rest of the time is either flat, too small, or blown out. Keep an eye on that Saturday, but it’s a long way out, so don’t bet the farm on it yet.

Rusty.

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