Graveyards Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's headed our way.

We're looking at a 16-day window, and I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough one. This ain't a time for beginners to be learning the ropes; the swell is just too powerful for that for most of the run. The only break on the radar is Graveyards, a reef setup that's very consistent and exposed to the swell. It takes a NW direction to really line up, and we're seeing a lot of swell from the WSW, so that's a bit of a mismatch.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual to report.

The first half of this forecast is a write-off for quality waves. From day one, Tuesday the 1st, right through to the 7th, it’s all "poor surf conditions." We're looking at a solid 16ft swell on the Tuesday morning with a massive combined energy of 8648 (moderate wave energy), but it's being hammered by a strong 25 mph cross-shore wind. That's a messy, blown-out mess, and the swell is coming from the WSW, not the NW we want. This pattern of big, junky swell and strong wind just keeps rolling in. Wednesday the 2nd is similar, with a 10ft swell and 16 mph cross-on wind. Thursday and Friday bring some onshore wind with the swell hanging around 8ft to 12ft, but the quality is just not there.

We finally get a glimmer of hope on Saturday the 5th. The combined energy is pumping at 11797 (strong wave energy) with a 13ft WSW swell at 14 seconds. The wind is a moderate 16 mph cross-shore. The report says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is just too big for this break. At 13ft, this is strictly for experts only. For the rest of us, it's a pass. Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th are back to poor conditions with strong winds.

Then, on Tuesday the 8th, we almost get there. The morning goes glassy – zero wind, absolute perfection for an hour or two. There's an 12ft WSW groundswell (14-second period), which is a proper long-period groundswell. At a reef break like Graveyards, those long-period swells can draw up and give you some beautiful, lined-up walls. The combined energy is 3891 (moderate wave energy). But again, the caveat is that 12ft is still skyscraper territory. It's called "too big for this break" in the notes. If you're a seasoned charger, this is your window. The afternoon sees a 10ft swell with light cross-on wind, still big but a little more manageable.

From Wednesday the 9th, the swell starts to drop. The 9th and 10th see smaller waves, but with fresh to strong winds, it's not worth the paddle.

Now, the real standout comes on Friday the 11th of September. We have a 10ft groundswell from the WSW with a period of 17 seconds – that is a very long period groundswell. The winds are a clean cross-off from the SSW at 16 mph. This is the best wind direction for Graveyards, grooming the swell perfectly. The combined energy is 5016 (moderate wave energy). It's still a big 10ft, so it's an expert's game, but the conditions will be world-class. The Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th look similar, with 10ft to 12ft swell and clean winds, but the wind shifts a little cross-on. It’s still good, but the 11th is the peak.

The second week gets quieter and less certain. Monday the 14th is marginal and smaller, and by Tuesday the 15th we see the 12ft swell return, but the wind is a lumpy cross-shore. Wednesday the 16th looks like a big, blown-out mess again.

So, if you're an expert, your day is Friday the 11th of September at Graveyards. The combination of a very long-period groundswell and glassy cross-off winds will be something special, even if the swell is hefty. If you're game for a big, clean wall, the glassy morning of Tuesday the 8th is another chance. Everyone else, this is a two-week stretch to work on your paddle fitness and wait for a smaller, cleaner window. This is a spot that is sometimes crowded, so with this quality, expect some company.

Rusty.

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