Houghton Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get real about this forecast, because it's a bit grim for a while.

This is a tough stretch for us. We're looking at a long, bleak run for a while, so strap in.

The surf forecast is flat-out bad for a solid stretch. We've got a swell on the way, but the wind is gonna be howling from the south, making a complete mess of things. For the next several days, it's just onshore slop with building, junky swell. Even when the swell gets solid, the conditions are going to make it horrible. It’s not until the 20th that we see any real light at the end of the tunnel, and even then, we’re talking about a short window. There is a massive, angry swell forecast for the 16th and 17th, but with those southerly winds, it's going to be a washing machine. This is a time to find other things to do.

The main break we have to talk about is Houghton Bay (Wellington), a beach and reef set-up that’s inconsistent. It's exposed to the south, which is where all our swell is coming from, but it just can't handle the wind.

Looking at the start of the period, from the 14th through the 19th, it’s one poor forecast after another. There is a building southerly swell, but the wind is straight on-shore at 30-35 mph. It’s just not worth it. The water temp is 54.3°, which is about average for this time of year, but with that wind, it’ll feel freezing.

The first real sign of life is on the morning of the 20th. The wind drops right out, going glassy, with a 6.6ft southerly swell at 12 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (1124). This is a standout, a real window of clean surf for the experienced crew. It’s got that long-period groundswell, 12 seconds, which will make it better at a reef like this, but it could be a bit walled. The afternoon stays clean, but the swell backs off slightly. This is the day to be out there.

After that, the wind swings offshore for the 21st and 22nd, but that swell just fades away. Plus, the wind gets way too strong, 25 mph plus, and it makes it impossible to actually paddle into anything. It’s taunting us.

Then we hit another dead zone. From the 23rd right through the 26th, it’s tiny, poor, or both. There is nothing on offer. The swell energy just drops right out, and we are left with scraps. The 26th morning looks glassy, but there's only 1ft of swell. You'd be floating around waiting for a ripple.

The saving grace is the end of the window. On the 27th, a new, long-period southerly swell shows up. The morning of the 27th is looking promising, with a moderate offshore wind and building swell. But the real standout is the Thursday afternoon. We're looking at a 3.3ft southerly swell with a 19-second period, and the wind is clean and offshore at 16 mph. The energy is moderate (808), but that period is massive. This is a serious groundswell. It won’t be huge, but it will be clean, powerful, and very workable. It's more than a week out, so don't book the time off yet, but that’s the one to watch. That’s a setup that will have the point working, and there might be some proper sets rolling through.

The 28th and 29th look wind-blown again with the swell dropping, so the 27th is our clear best bet.

This whole run has some serious peaks and troughs. The 20th is clean but average size. The 27th is the one with real potential. The rest is just a waiting game.

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