Cobblestones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long 16-day window, and honestly, the first week is a bit of a write-off. It’s not until Wednesday the 22nd that we start to see a real window of opportunity, and the real standout is way out there on the 30th. Buckle up.

The Overall Pattern

We’re looking at a classic case of “too much of a good thing” early on, followed by a clean-up later. The first week is dominated by a huge, powerful swell, but it’s coming in with messy, onshore winds that will trash the surf. Think big, lumpy, and blown-out. You’d be better off staying in bed. The wave energy is massive – we’re talking readings in the thousands (11476) on Saturday the 18th – but it’s all for nothing with the wind. This run of poor surf is a solid 5 to 6 days before we get a sniff of something decent.

The Early Mess (16th – 21st July)

The action starts Thursday the 16th at Cobblestones with a solid 10 ft swell from the WSW, but the WSW wind is on it, and we’ve got heavy rain. The wave energy is strong (3820), but the quality is marginal at best. Friday the 17th drops to 7 ft, but the wind is howling from the WNW at 19 mph, making it lumpy. Saturday the 18th is the biggest day of the whole run, with a beastly 18 ft on the Saturday morning and a 16 ft in the afternoon. The wave energy is absolutely massive (10101 and 11476), but the onshore winds are a total deal-breaker. This is proper expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be fun. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are still big, but the wind is less aggressive, though the surf is still described as marginal. This whole first stretch is a washout.

The First Glimmer (22nd – 23rd July)

Wednesday the 22nd is the first day we get a real break. The swell is still a chunky 10 ft from the SW (period 13 seconds), but the wind finally goes light and cross-offshore from the SSE in the morning. This is a reef break, so that long period groundswell will be working well. The wave energy is still high (2561), but the conditions are described as clean. It’s a big, powerful wave for advanced surfers, but it’s going to be the best thing we’ve seen in a week. Thursday the 23rd is similar but a touch smaller at 8 ft, with a light cross-offshore from the NNE. Another solid option for the experienced crew.

The Big Lull and a Kite Surfing Sniff (24th – 27th July)

The 24th drops right back to 6 ft with a messy cross-shore wind, so we’re back to poor conditions. The 25th sees another massive pulse of 16 ft swell, but again, it’s howling onshore from the NW at 22 mph. This is a classic kite surfing setup, not a paddle surfing one. The 26th and 27th are still big (16 ft and 12 ft) and messy.

The Real Standout (28th – 31st July)

Tuesday the 28th is a sneaky good one. The swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft from the S, but the wind is glassy in the morning from the ESE. The wave energy is a moderate 1716, but the conditions are described as “glassy.” That’s a perfect morning for a longboard or a funboard.

The Main Event: Thursday 30th July

But the absolute standout, the one you’re waiting for, is Thursday the 30th. We’ve got a 10 ft swell from the SW, but the period is a massive 19 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell. The wind is a clean, moderate offshore from the ENE at 12 mph. The wave energy is a huge 9410. The conditions are described as “exceptional for expert surfers.” This is a proper, high-energy, deep-water swell hitting a reef break with perfect offshore wind. It’s going to be a long, clean, powerful wave. The water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 67° on the 16th, and that should hold into the end of the month. Friday the 31st is also excellent, with a steady 10 ft and a clean offshore wind all day. It’s a little smaller in period (16 seconds) but still a fantastic session.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The best bet is to wait for the glassy morning of the 28th for a fun day, or set your sights on that absolute monster day on the 30th. That Thursday is the real deal.

Rusty.

Read more