Cobblestones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it. We've got one spot on the radar for this entire stretch, and it's a proper reef break that's going to test you. It's a bit of a wild ride, so let's break down the next couple of weeks.

The big picture is that we're looking at a solid run of south-west groundswell, but it's going to be a game of timing and wind. Most days are going to be a battle with the conditions, but there are a couple of windows where it all comes together. The water is sitting at 67°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year—that's a notable spike, so you can leave the thick rubber at home.

Let's kick things off in the short term. For the next couple of days, Tuesday and Wednesday, there's a serious amount of energy in the water. The combined swell energy is massive, reading 17353 on Tuesday morning, and the swell is pushing a solid 20ft at 16 seconds from the south-west. But, and it's a big but, the wind is howling from the south-west at 19 mph, putting a nasty cross-onshore chop all over it. It's big, it's raw, and frankly, it's just too much for this break. The call is to give it a miss; it's not going to be pretty. Wednesday sees the swell dip to a still-chunky 13ft, but it's still onshore, so it's a washout in my books.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Thursday the 13th is looking like a proper standout. The swell is still a solid 13ft from the south-west, but the energy has cleaned up a bit. The magic is the wind. It's dropped right out, down to a 3 mph cross-shore breeze in the morning. Glassy conditions on a 16-second groundswell at a reef like this? That's the stuff dreams are made of. The shape should be excellent, and the long period will mean plenty of power. This is the one to point the car at.

Friday the 14th is still good, with the swell easing to a more manageable 12ft. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the north-northeast in the morning at 9 mph, which will keep the faces clean. It won't have the same raw power as Thursday, but it's still a quality day with clean conditions.

The weekend sees things get a bit smaller and a bit messier. Saturday the 15th has the swell dropping to 8ft, but the morning moderate breeze and the drop in period to 14 seconds mean it loses some of its punch. Sunday the 16th sees a slight bump back up to 12ft, but the wind and the consistency just aren't there for it to be a standout.

We hit a flat, ugly patch from Monday the 17th through Tuesday the 18th. The wind goes straight onshore and howls, making it completely unsurfable. The energy is still there, but the quality is zero. You'd be better off finding something else to do.

Now, looking further out, we've got another potential winner. The following Wednesday the 19th, the swell kicks back up to a solid 16ft from the west-south-west, and the wind goes light and offshore. Again, the energy is strong, reading 12903. This looks very promising, but it's over a week away, so treat it as promising rather than a sure thing.

The end of the month is a lottery. There are some windows with clean cross-offshore winds and decent swell on the 21st and 22nd, but the periods are shorter and the wind models are less reliable. The absolute last day, the 26th, is a no-go with strong onshore winds.

So, to sum it up: if you can only pick one day, make it Thursday the 13th. It's got the size, the period, and the cleanest conditions. The following Wednesday the 19th is a close second. Get on it.

Rusty, out.

Read more