Shipstern Bluff Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm staring down the barrel at the next couple of weeks here in the deep south. We've got a serious run of energy coming through, but it’s not all going to be pretty. The main game in town is without a doubt Shipstern Bluff – a heavy, exposed reef that only the brave and the skilled should even think about paddling out at. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a touch milder than normal, but you’ll still want a good steamer.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, with nothing truly worth a paddle until Saturday morning July 18th. The swell is there at 5 ft from the SW, but with a 25 km/h WNW cross-off wind and a "combined energy of all swells directed here" of 1059 (moderate energy), it’s just not clicking. The forecast calls it marginal, and I’d agree. The afternoon cleans up slightly with a lighter breeze, but it’s still a "maybe" session.

Sunday the 19th is where we get our first real taste. The morning brings a 4 ft SSW swell with a 15 km/h offshore wind from the NNW. That’s clean, lined-up, and the reef will be doing its thing. The energy is a solid 532 (moderate), and the period is a meaty 11 seconds. This is a proper groundswell. This is a standout for the early part of the run. The afternoon drops off a bit in size but holds the offshore wind, staying clean.

The middle of the week gets a bit dicey. Tuesday the 21st has a nice 5 ft SW swell with a 15 km/h cross-off, and the energy climbs to 771 (moderate). The Tuesday afternoon session is pure glass – a 4 ft SW swell with a 5 km/h glassy wind. That’s a beautiful window for the experts who can handle the Bluff’s power.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Wednesday the 22nd afternoon through to the end of the week, the wind goes berserk. We’re looking at 40-50 km/h cross-shore and cross-on winds, and the swell jumps to 12 ft to 13 ft from the SW. The energy numbers are massive – 6155, 13290, 7641 – that’s very strong energy, but it’s a complete mess. "Near gale cross-shore with crossing waves" is the call, and that’s a hard pass. This is strictly for the cameras and the crazies, if anyone. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The following weekend, Saturday the 25th, the swell drops back to a more manageable 7 ft from the SSW, but the wind is still a moderate cross-off. The energy is 1551 (strong), but the quality is still marginal. The 26th and 27th are a write-off with poor conditions.

Now, hold on, because the second week gets interesting. The run from Saturday August 1st through Sunday August 2nd is the true standout. Saturday morning brings a 6 ft SSW swell, light 10 km/h cross-off wind, and the system is clean. The comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" – and it means it. The afternoon is glassy, with a 5 ft SSW swell. That’s a magic window. Sunday the 2nd is the pick of the entire forecast. We’re looking at a 7 ft SSW swell in the morning with a light offshore, and then the afternoon is perfect: 10 ft SSW swell, glassy wind, and a "combined energy of all swells directed here" of 4101 (very strong energy). The period is 16 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell, which at a reef like Shipstern Bluff is going to produce some of the most perfect, powerful, and terrifying waves you’ll ever see. This is for experts only. Anything over 8 ft is expert territory, and 10 ft is serious. The break is "fairly consistent" and crowds are "rare," so you’ll have the place to yourself. This is a long-range promise, but it’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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