Shipstern Bluff Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a bit of a slow burn to start. The first real action isn't until Wednesday the 15th of July, so the first few days of the period are quiet. The standout is undeniably the big pulse that rolls in around Friday the 24th, but there’s plenty of tricky conditions to navigate before then.

The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is about 1° above the norm for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch warmer than average.

The main event is Shipstern Bluff. This is a deep-water reef that handles serious swell, but it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The week starts on Wednesday morning with a 7ft SW swell (14-second period) and a moderate cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is already pumping at 1862 (moderate), but the surf is marginal due to tide. It’s not the cleanest start, but it’s a sign of what’s building.

By Thursday the 16th, the swell drops slightly to 8ft from the SSW, but the period stretches to 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The energy jumps to 3326 (strong). The winds stay cross-off, keeping it clean. This is a good window for the experienced crew.

Friday the 17th is a repeat performer: 8ft SSW swell, 17-second period, clean cross-off wind. Energy is 3434 (strong). This is the best of the first week – consistent, powerful, and clean. It’s a big, heavy reef wave, but with those conditions, it’s a classic.

The weekend sees a drop in size. Saturday morning the 18th is 5ft, and by Sunday it’s down to 4ft. The winds swing offshore, keeping it glassy, but the energy drops below 1000. It’s still rideable, but not the main event.

Then we hit a dry spell. Monday through Wednesday the 20th-22nd, the swell drops to under 3ft and the energy is below 400. The 22nd is particularly poor with a 2ft swell and howling 19 mph offshore winds. Not worth the paddle.

Thursday the 23rd gets a pulse of 7ft SSW swell with 16-second period, but it’s a write-off with 22 mph cross-shore wind and lumpy conditions. Friday the 24th is the big one: an 12ft SW swell arrives, period 15 seconds, energy a massive 5157 (very strong). Winds are cross-off and clean. By the afternoon, it’s 13ft with energy up to 7440 (very strong). This is the standout – huge, powerful, but clean. Only for experts, but it’s a world-class day.

Saturday the 25th is the peak of the swell but the wind ruins it. 16ft SSW swell with 25 mph cross-onshore makes it a mess. Sunday the 26th drops back to 8ft with clean cross-off, but it’s still a big, heavy day.

The last few days filter out with dropping swell and onshore winds. The 30th sees a weird 1ft swell with a 21-second period – that’s a very long-period pulse, but tiny and messy. Not worth it.

The one true standout is Friday the 24th of July: 12ft to 13ft SW swell, 15-second period, cross-off wind, and massive energy. It’s only for the hardcore, but that’s the pick of the period.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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