Shipstern Bluff Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grab your boards, 'cause we’ve got a wild window ahead here at Shipstern Bluff. This isn’t a spot for the faint of heart, and the forecast is playing right into that big, raw energy that makes this place so special. We’re starting with a bit of a lull, but by the middle of the coming week, things are going to get seriously heavy.

The first few days are pretty quiet. Sunday the 9th has a small 2ft SW groundswell rolling in with a 13-second period. The NNE wind is blowing offshore though, so it’s clean, but there’s just not enough water moving to get the Bluff working. It’s a tease, a chance to stare at the horizon and wait. That’s about it for the next day or so.

Monday the 10th sees a bump in size to 5ft from the SSW, but the wind swings to a light cross-onshore and it gets a bit messy. The energy is picking up a little (1274), but the quality is off. Tuesday the 11th morning is rough with a fresh WSW cross-onshore wind and lumpy conditions, but stay tuned because Tuesday afternoon is where I start to get excited.

That Tuesday afternoon, a 4ft SSW swell with a long 18-second period hits, and the wind swings around to a light WNW cross-off. It's clean, it’s powerful, and the energy is climbing (1446). This is your first real taste of what's coming, a solid indicator that the ocean is stirring. Wednesday the 12th morning holds 5ft but with a cross-shore wind, it’s a bit chopped. But later that same day, it’s like a switch gets flipped. The swell jumps to a thumping 10ft from the SW, though a fresh W cross-shore wind will have it lumpy and challenging. This is proper, heavy water.

Thursday the 13th is where the real power starts to show. Thursday morning is still sizeable at 8ft with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, making for some serious, grinding bowls. But the standout, the one you’ll be telling stories about, is Thursday afternoon. The swell is a beast—12ft from the SW—with a massive energy reading of 7966. The wind is unfortunately cross-shore and fresh, so it won't be perfect, but the raw power is undeniable.

Friday the 14th looks like a write-off. A strong SW breeze brings in cross-onshore winds and messy, stormy conditions with the swell still huge at 12ft. That’s a day for staying on the cliff and watching, not paddling out.

After that storm passes, Saturday the 15th morning is the real gem of this entire forecast. The wind drops to a light NNW cross-offshore, and the sky is clear. You’ve got a solid 8ft SSW swell with a 16-second period—clean, powerful, and perfectly groomed by that offshore wind. This is the day for experienced surfers only, with the swell size well over 2.5m. This is the one. The energy is strong (3376), the conditions are glassy, and the Bluff will be showing its teeth.

The following days have some good-looking waves too. Sunday the 16th backs off a touch to 5ft but stays clean with a light NW cross-offshore breeze. Monday the 17th is another good one, with 5ft SSW swell and clean cross-offshore winds in the morning. Even Tuesday the 18th has a fun 3ft to 3ft with clean offshore or cross-off winds. It’s still a go.

The second week is less predictable, but there are still a few hints of life. The first weekend of the second week, around the 22nd and 23rd, shows some promise with a drop in period to 7 seconds—a shorter period windswell—but still in the 7ft to 7ft range. It’s a different beast, less of that long, pushing groundswell. The morning of Sunday the 23rd suggests a 5ft SSW swell with a long 16-second period and a light offshore wind, which could be a classic. It’s promising, but the long-range forecast is less certain than next week's call.

There are a couple of days with no good options in between, mainly this coming Friday the 14th and the following Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st look pretty grim with onshore winds and fading, weak energy. That’s the nature of the beast down here though. This isn't a place that gives up easy, and when it's on, there's nothing else like it in the world.

The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so a good hood and booties are still your best mates. For a deep water reef like this, keep your wits about you. The wave size is forecast to be well overhead for most of the main events, so if you’re not comfortable in big, powerful water, this isn't the week for you. For the rest of you, strap in.

- Rusty

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