Lauderdale Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mates, Rusty here. Let’s be real about what we’ve got coming. This stretch is a whole lot of nothing with one solitary flash of hope right at the end.

We start off proper flat. The first week is all small, weak slop with a cross-shore breeze that just won’t quit. From Saturday the 1st through the middle of the week, there’s nothing to chase. Swell heights are stuck in the ankle-biters – 2ft or less in old money – and the periods are short and messy. The energy readings are weak, with numbers in the double digits to low hundreds. It’s a proper dry spell.

We’re looking at a long, blank run that carries through the first week and into the start of the second. A few mornings have a glassy look to them, but there’s still no swell behind it. This is the kind of stretch where you check the surf from the car and keep driving. It’s a normal dry spell for this area, so don’t go thinking something’s broken.

Then comes the one real glimmer. On the morning of Thursday the 14th, things finally shift. A longer-period S swell rolls in at around 1.0m (3ft), with a 21-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and the energy reading jumps to 854 – a whole different world from weak numbers we’ve been seeing. The wind is offshore and light, a cross-off, so the face should be clean. The caveat is that long period – it will break a bit more lined up and peaky at a point like Lauderdale Point (Tasmania), which is actually ideal. Expect longer, walled-up sets with real push, but longer gaps between them too.

That’s it. The afternoon fades, and the following days are back to small, wind-blown mush. The 16th has a bit more size, but the wind is up and lumpy, so that’s a no-go.

Water temp is about 52°F, which is roughly 2°F cooler than usual. Not a huge departure, but you’ll notice it.

So here’s the bottom line: if you can, wait for that Thursday morning. It’s the one window with real potential in this whole 16 days. Everything else is flat or poor. Don’t force it – this drought will break eventually.

Rusty.

Read more