Mount Cameron Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight: the next 16 days at Mount Cameron (Tasmania) are a tale of two halves. We’ve got a massive, long-period southwest groundswell on the way, but a lot of it is going to be wrecked by nasty winds. The water temp is sitting at 55.6°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real swell hits on Monday the 7th, but it’s a no-go. A solid 9.8ft SW groundswell (period 8 seconds) is met with a stiff 18.6 mph south cross-onshore wind, just making a mess. The wave energy is moderate but ugly at 1730. Monday afternoon and all of Tuesday keep pumping in SW swell, bumping up to 11.5ft, and that long-period groundswell kicks in Tuesday morning with an 18-second period, ramming the combined energy up to 6950 – serious power. But the wind stays cross-onshore, 12.4-18.6 mph, keeping it lumpy and poor.

Wednesday the 9th is when things get ridiculous. The swell explodes to 19.7ft on Wednesday morning with a 19-second period, the energy reading an enormous 26877. That is a deep, powerful groundswell. But it’s accompanied by a strong 24.9 mph SSW cross-onshore wind. This swell is way too big for anyone but the most experienced, and even then, the wind is going to tear it up. A beach-and-reef set-up like Mount Cameron is going to be a washing machine. In fact, with that much power and cross-wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing one. Wednesday afternoon is identical in size and wind. Thursday the 10th sees the swell ease a bit to 18.0ft, and we finally get an onshore wind (12.4 mph SW), but the conditions are still messy and the tide is a question mark.

Friday the 11th clocks in with a 11.5ft to 13.1ft SW groundswell and period hitting 16 seconds, but the wind is still cross-onshore. The energy is still strong (8026 on Friday arvo), but the quality is marginal at best. Saturday the 12th has lighter winds – just 3.1 mph from the WNW, but it’s still cross-onshore, with small wind ripples spoiling the 11.5ft, 15-second swell.

Now, Sunday the 13th is a glimmer. A 8.2ft to 9.8ft WSW groundswell, 15-16 second period, and a moderate 12.4 mph cross-offshore wind from the north. The notes say “clean.” This is the best paddle-surf window in the first week. The swell is still solid for an intermediate, but the wind is working with the break, not against it. The crowd factor here is “sometimes,” so you might share it, but worth it for clean lines.

Then we hit a real patchy stretch from Monday the 14th through to Saturday the 19th. The swell stays up, 11.5ft to 16.4ft, but the wind is almost always onshore or strong cross-onshore, often from the west or southwest, with a near gale hitting on Friday the 18th (37.3 mph onshore). The wave energy readings stay high (3563 to 12407), but it’s mostly poor surf, blown out or just messy. There’s a window on Thursday the 17th where the wind goes cross-offshore from the NNE, giving clean 13.1ft to 9.8ft SW groundswell. That’s another clean day, but it’s a big, powerful swell – better for experienced surfers. Overall, the first week is a bust except for Sunday the 13th and maybe Thursday the 17th.

The second week starts to clean up. Sunday the 20th is still messy, with 16.4ft WSW swell and cross-onshore winds. Monday the 21st improves – the swell drops slightly to 18.0ft, but the wind is a light 6.2 mph from the WNW. That’s light cross-onshore, but the notes call it marginal with some hope, giving it a 7. It’s not clean, but it’s the best-looking day for the big stuff.

Then, boom. Tuesday the 22nd is the standout of the entire forecast. We get an exceptional day for expert surfers. A 16.4ft to 14.8ft southwest groundswell with a 15-16 second period, and for the first time, a solid offshore wind – 12.4 mph from the east to east-northeast. That moderate offshore wind is going to groom the big lines, and the wave energy is sitting at a massive 10351 to 10311. This is the day to call in sick for. The swell direction (WSW) matches the guidance optimum swell direction (WSW) perfectly. It’s going to be powerful, but clean. For Mount Cameron, with its beach and reef, that offshore wind will be key. The only caveat is it’s a

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