Black Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into what's happening at Black Rock, and I'll be straight with you – it's a bit of a patience tester for the next week and a half. This is a solid reef break for advanced surfers only, known for being consistent, but the forecast is making us work for it. For a place that loves a NE swell, there's a lot of junk wind and small swell in the short term.

First up, the water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report there.

We've got a long dry spell to start. From Tuesday the 15th right through to Sunday the 20th, it's basically a write-off. We're looking at tiny, weak swells and poor conditions. The combined swell energy is down in the weak range, with a reading of just 21 on Tuesday morning. The wind is all over the place – cross, cross-on, nothing clean or favourable for this spot.

The week of the 21st to the 28th doesn't get much better for quality. Monday the 21st morning is surfable but very ordinary – glassy conditions but the swell is only 2ft from the N with a weak period. From Tuesday the 22nd we start seeing some size, with the swell pushing 5ft to 6ft from the SE, and the combined swell energy gets into the moderate range (around 282). But the wind is cross-on or onshore, which just messes it up at a reef like this. It's not a good look for a clean paddle.

From the 25th through to the 28th, we see consistent 5ft to 5ft swell from the ENE, with the swell energy climbing into the strong range, hitting 366 on the Sunday afternoon. But again, the wind is cross or cross-on, keeping things choppy and unappealing. The crowd profile here is "sometimes", but with this lack of quality, I doubt you'll have company.

Now, here’s the glimmer of hope, and it's the only standout in the whole 16 days. Mark your calendar for Tuesday the 29th of September. The morning looks magic. A clean 4ft swell from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds, but the combined energy is a solid 221 – moderate energy. The wind is glassy, dead calm from the WNW. That is a rare treat for Black Rock. The guidance has the optimum swell direction as NE, so ENE is close enough to be really good. This is the morning to be out there. The afternoon turns onshore again, so it's a narrow window.

Following that, Wednesday the 30th of September morning also looks promising with a 4ft ENE swell and a clean, cross-off wind from the SSW, with the combined energy at 249. Another good, clean option to close out the period.

So, to sum it up: nearly two weeks of frustrating, poor quality surf before we get a couple of sweet, clean mornings right at the end. The 29th morning is the one you want to aim for. It's far out, so keep an eye on it, but it's the best on offer by a country mile.

Rusty.

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