Mullaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—looking at the next couple of weeks, it’s a slow grind for most of it, with a few windows that’ll get the heart rate up but nothing that’s gonna blow your mind. The water’s sitting right on average for this time of year, about 68°F, so it’s not a shock, just normal.

We start off with a lumpy, cross-shore mess on Thursday the 10th. There’s some size, around 8ft, but the wind’s howling from the south at 15 mph and it’s chopped up. The energy is strong—1110—but it’s not doing anyone any favors. Friday the 11th is more of the same: 8ft in the morning but still cross and ugly. The afternoon drops to 5ft and actually cleans up a bit, but it’s still not worth paddling out for. Honestly, the first few days are a write-off. You’re looking at at least a three-day gap before anything feels worthwhile.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are small and weak, with the swell bottoming out to less than 3ft. There’s no push, no shape, just crumble. Monday and Tuesday are even smaller—you’d be fighting for a 1ft slop. This is the dry spell, alright.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The first real standout is Thursday the 17th. Early morning, the wind swings around to the northwest (cross-off), the sea state is clean, and we’ve got a 4ft SSE swell moving at 11 seconds. It’s not huge, but the energy is moderate at 417, and that clean face is going to make it look a lot better than the numbers suggest. This is your first proper chance to get a few decent ones. It’s an exposed point, so it’ll handle that direction well.

After that, it’s back to small and onshore for a few days. We’ve got another gap of about three days with nothing doing—just dribbles and cross-shore junk.

Then we get to Sunday the 20th. The afternoon looks promising if you can wait for it. We’re looking at 6ft of SSE swell, but the period jumps to 11 seconds, and the energy is solid at 846. Wind is light onshore, which is okay, but it’s more about the size and power. It’s still a bit lumpy, so it’s a “marginal” call. The next morning, Monday the 21st, is when it all comes together. There’s 6ft of SE swell at 11 seconds, the energy is 874—that’s strong—and the wind is a light NNE cross-shore. It’s not glassy, but there’s some push and it’s not chopped to bits. This is your best bet of the entire run. It’s got the size, the period, and the conditions are workable. But listen, at 6ft, it’s right on the edge for beginners. You need to know what you’re doing out there.

From Tuesday the 22nd onward, it fades again. The swell drops back under 5ft, and the wind swings onshore. It just dies on its feet. By the 24th, there’s a tiny 4ft blip with a glassy period, but the period is a pathetic 5 seconds—that’s windswell, no real power. Not worth the paddle.

So, keep your expectations in check. The standout is clearly Mullaway (Big Island) on the morning of Monday the 21st—that’s the one to circle. The morning of Thursday the 17th is your second pick, a smaller but cleaner option. Just expect there to be a lot of flat, crappy water in between. That’s the game sometimes.

Rusty.

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