Broken Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and let’s be straight with each other – this 16-day window for Broken Head is a long, drawn-out game of mostly waiting with only fleeting glimpses of the good stuff. The pattern is dominated by consistent east-northeast energy, but the wind and conditions are simply not cooperating for most of the run. We’re looking at a big stretch of days where the surf is either too small, too choppy, or pulsing with messy short-period swell and onshore or cross-shore winds. The water temp is sitting around 68°, which is pretty standard for this time of year.

First, let’s get through the rough patch. From Tuesday the 11th right through to Monday the 17th, every session gets a big fat zero on the quality meter. Tuesday morning has a nice-looking 2 ft of 9-second ENE groundswell and a clean cross-off breeze, but the combined energy is weak at 128 and the surf feedback says it’s poor – likely just soft and gutless. Wednesday the 12th is a slight step up on the score but barely surfable, and Thursday the 13th morning has a weak 2 ft wave and a clean offshore breeze but that combined energy is tiny at 61 – you’d be out there for a paddle, not a ride. The afternoons are all poor with onshore or crummy side-shore conditions. The weekend of the 16th sees a jump in size with 6-6 ft of 7-second windswell from the SSE, but the wind is cross-off and messy, with strong combined energy readings of 318-362 – it’s just a lumpy, choppy mess for a beach setup, honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The run continues rough through Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th with 5-8 ft of short-period SE swell (7-8 seconds) and cross-shore winds whipping up a cross-chop; combined energy climbs into the 450-653 range, meaning there’s plenty of water moving but it’s raw, unruly, and not for anyone looking for a clean wave.

Now, we finally get a standout. Thursday morning, 20th August – this is the one to circle. The swell settles to a clean 5 ft of 11-second groundswell from the SE, with a light cross-off breeze from the SSW at 10 km/h (6 mph). The combined energy is a solid 591, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is a genuine gem after a long dry spell. The period over 11 seconds means longer lines, better shape, and more power – perfect for a point break like Broken Head (Broken Head). It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but with crowds often an issue here, you might have company. Wind is light and clean, making for some super fun, lined-up waves.

Following that, Friday the 21st sees 4-4 ft of 8-9 second east swell with clean conditions and combined energy around 237-253 – good rather than great. Saturday the 22nd morning has 4 ft of ESE swell with an offshore breeze – again, clean and fun. The run up to Monday the 24th August morning is the other real standout: Monday morning, 24th August, with 4 ft of 9-second east swell and glassy conditions – a light SSE breeze at 5 km/h (3 mph) making it dead flat calm. Combined energy sits at 232, and the wave feedback is “expect good surf conditions.” That glassy morning should be absolutely beautiful, clean walls, easy paddling.

The final few mornings from 25th to 26th August run into onshore or cross-on winds and tiny 2 ft to 3 ft waves – just not worth the effort.

So, if you’re patient, the best bets are Thursday morning, 20th August (standout for power and shape) and Monday morning, 24th August (standout for glassy, clean conditions). For the first week, save your energy. This is a tough forecast for an area that can fire, but when it comes good, it’s well worth the wait.

Rusty.

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