Broken Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this forecast for Broken Head is a long, frustrating wait for the good stuff. The first week is a write-off for any decent surf, with a massive pulse of stormy, wind-whipped swell that’s more about survival than style. We’ve got a real gap from the start right through to the middle of the month, with nothing worth paddling out for.

The troubles begin Wednesday 15 July and just keep hammering. A risk of thunderstorms, southerly winds at 19 mph, and a tiny 0.7 ft easterly swell with 9-second period—that’s barely a ripple. The combined energy is a weak 11, so forget it. Then Thursday 16 July morning, things get wild but ugly: a 12 ft SSE swell, period 9 seconds, but still cross-off winds at 19 mph. The energy jumps to 1751 (moderate wave energy), but the wind is a mess. By Thursday afternoon, it’s 13 ft SSE swell, 9 seconds, with 22 mph winds and rain showers—energy at 2314 (strong wave energy). This is noisy, lumpy, and way too big for beginners. It doesn’t ease up through Friday and into the weekend; Saturday 18 July has 13 ft to 15 ft swell with 25 mph southerly winds, energy peaking at 3564 (very strong wave energy). This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The whole first week from the 15th to the 20th is a proper stormy mess, with energy levels staying in the thousands, strong cross-off winds, and a constant “marginal” or “poor” tag. The water temp is a normal 69°F for this time of year, so at least that’s not a shock.

Finally, the light appears. By Tuesday 21 July afternoon, the wind drops to a light breeze from the SSE at 6 mph, the swell drops to 8 ft from the east, still 10-second period, and the energy settles to 1037 (moderate). The comments say “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”—and that’s the standout. The swell is 8 ft, which is big enough for strong paddlers, and the cross-off wind will keep it reasonably clean. This is the best session on offer: a solid east swell, decent period, and manageable wind. Wednesday 22 July is even cleaner: morning glassy conditions with a southwest wind at 3 mph, swell 6 ft from the east, period 10 seconds, energy 564 (moderate wave energy). The afternoon stays clean with a light offshore southwest breeze at 6 mph and 5 ft east swell. That’s a mellow, fun day for a punt.

From the 23rd onward, it slowly fades. Thursday 23 July morning has 5 ft ENE swell, 9 seconds, and light southerly winds—okay but ordinary. By Friday 24 July, we get a few tidy windows with glassy northeast winds in the afternoon and 4 ft ENE swell, 9 seconds, energy 243 (weak wave energy). That’s a small, clean wave for a longboard or a fish. The weekend of 25-26 July is tiny, with 3 ft swell and light offshore winds, energy around 100-190 (weak), surfable but nothing to set the alarm for. The end of the month sees a tiny spike on Wednesday 29 July afternoon with 6 ft SSE swell, 9 seconds, energy 526 (moderate), but the wind is cross-off at 12 mph and the day has rain showers—marginal at best. Thursday 30 July morning has 5 ft SSE swell, 8 seconds, with light offshore winds, energy 418 (moderate wave energy), and tagged as “good,” but it’s short and small.

So, the honest call: the standout is Tuesday 21 July afternoon and Wednesday 22 July. That’s the cleanest, most manageable window with a real east swell, decent period, and light winds. Tuesday 21 July is the pick for experienced surfers wanting a bit of size; Wednesday 22 July is for everyone else. The rest is either a stormy mess or too small to care about. A proper blank run in the first week, but the forecast can always change.

Rusty

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