Broken Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been looking over the charts for Broken Head (a point break, beginner-friendly, fairly consistent). We’ve got a slow start, but there’s a proper pulse building later in the window.

Right now, Thursday morning the 27th has a small 3ft ENE swell with a weak 8-second period, and the combined energy is only 98 – that’s weak. The wind is a cross-off from the SSW, but the whole thing is just too small and messy. “Poor surf conditions” says it all. Thursday afternoon sees a jump to 5ft but from the SSE, period drops to 7 seconds, and the combined energy is 362 (moderate), but the wind turns cross-off from the SSE and the comments flag marginal tide issues. Not worth paddling out for.

Friday morning the 28th looks a bit better: 4ft from the SSE, 9-second period, combined energy 371 (moderate), and a light S cross-off breeze. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions,” so it’s a clean little window. That afternoon, swell builds to 5ft with a longer 12-second period and combined energy 689 (moderate), but the wind goes cross-on from the ESE, making it choppy. Saturday morning the 29th offers another clean session with 4ft SSE swell, 10-second period, combined energy 382, and SSW cross-off wind. It’s rideable and clean, but not a standout.

The water temp is sitting at 69°F, with a -0.5°F anomaly – that’s about average for this time of year, nothing weird.

We then hit a dry spell. From Sunday the 30th all the way through to Wednesday morning the 10th of September, the surf is either too small, too windy, or just plain poor. There are a few mornings with glassy conditions – like Tuesday the 1st of September, where we get a glassy 2ft SSE swell with a long 16-second period – but the combined energy is 342 (moderate) and the height is tiny. That’s more of a longboard groomer than anything with punch. There’s a noticeable gap of over a week where you’re better off doing something else.

Now, here’s the real deal. Thursday the 10th of September – that’s the one to circle. Thursday morning, the swell jumps to 8ft from the SSE, 13-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 2158 (very strong). The wind is a clean cross-off from the S. That’s a solid, powerful groundswell, but at 8ft, it’s getting into expert territory – beginners should sit this one out. Thursday afternoon holds at 7ft with 12-second period and 1971 energy, still clean. The comments say “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but the raw energy is undeniable.

But the absolute standout is Friday the 11th of September. Friday morning, we’ve got 12ft from the SSE, 14-second period, and the combined energy is a whopping 4761 – that’s very strong. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the SSW. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and that’s exactly what this is. This is a serious, long-period groundswell, and at 12ft it’s only for experts. The point break at Broken Head will handle this energy well – long-period groundswells love points, and the shape should be proper. Friday afternoon drops to 10ft with 13-second period and 3353 energy, still clean, still solid. If you’re experienced and hungry, this is the session.

Keep in mind, this is a week and a half away, so it’s a long-range call – promising but not locked in. For now, the best bet is that Friday morning, 11th of September. Crowds are possible here, but with a swell this size, only the keen and capable will be out.

Rusty.

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