Broken Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a window of solid, powerful surf if you’re willing to pick your moments.

The early part of the forecast is all about size and energy, but the wind is going to be a real challenge. We’ve got a proper pulse of swell from the SE and SSE pushing through from Friday 17 July right through the weekend. Friday afternoon kicks things off with a 10 ft SE swell, but it’s carrying a short period of 8 seconds and a howling 22 mph SSE wind that’s cross-offshore. The combined energy reads 1084 (moderate), so there’s plenty of water moving, but the wind is strong. By Saturday morning, it jumps to 12 ft from the SSE, period still 8 seconds, and the wind is up to 25 mph from the south – still cross-off. That’s a lot of juice (1599 energy), but it’s a battle. This size is well into expert territory, and with that wind, it’s going to be a raw, powerful affair. Not for the faint-hearted.

The real standout in this whole run, if you can handle the conditions, is Saturday afternoon 18 July. The swell holds at 12 ft, but the period improves to 9 seconds, and the combined energy absolutely cranks to 3543 (strong). Yes, the wind is still a strong 25 mph S cross-off, but for a crew of experienced surfers at a point break like Broken Head, that cross-off can actually groom the face. The optimum swell direction for Broken Head is ENE, and this is coming from the SSE, so it’s not a perfect match, but the sheer power and size make it a serious option. The water temperature is 69°, which is about average for this time of year (anomaly -0.4°), so nothing unusual there.

Sunday 19 July keeps the size going with a 13 ft SE swell in the morning (3172 energy), dropping to 13 ft and 9 seconds in the afternoon (2566 energy). The wind eases a little to 22 mph SSE, still cross-off. Again, it’s big, raw, and for experts only.

Then we get a shift. From Monday 20 July, the swell starts to back off and the wind swings more cross-shore. Monday morning has 10 ft but with a cross wind at 16 mph, and the energy is still moderate (1680), but the quality drops. The wind stays tricky through the early part of the week.

The next real sweet spot, and the best all-rounder for a broader range of surfers, lands on Tuesday 21 July. The morning sees a 7 ft E swell with a 10-second period, combined energy of 947 (moderate), and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph SSE, staying cross-offshore. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the cleanest window in the whole run. The swell is still a solid size, but manageable for intermediate surfers, and the period is good for shaping up. The afternoon is similar but a touch smaller at 6 ft. That Tuesday morning is the pick.

From Wednesday 22 July onward, the swell drops steadily. Wednesday morning offers 5 ft E swell with a 6 mph SSW offshore wind, clean and lined up, but the energy is lower (377). The rest of the week and into the following week is a slow fade. By Thursday 24 July, we’re down to 3 ft, and after that, it’s a long stretch of small, weak waves. There’s a solid gap from about Friday 24 July right through to the end of the 16-day window, with wave heights mostly below 2 ft and very low energy (often under 50). The conditions are often clean, but there’s just not enough swell to surf. The 26th and 27th have glassy conditions, but with waves barely 2 ft, it’s a flat spell. The forecast confidence for this second week is low, but it’s looking like a poor run.

So, to sum it up: the big dog is Saturday afternoon 18 July for the experienced crew, but the cleanest, most user-friendly session is Tuesday morning 21 July. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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