The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for The Pass. It’s gonna be a bit of a slow cooker – a long stretch of small, ordinary waves before a big, late-summer pulse of energy lights things up. Hold tight.

For the first week, from Thursday the 6th through to around Wednesday the 12th, it’s pretty flat and uninspiring. We’re looking at tiny swell, mostly around 2ft to 4ft from the ENE and E, with weak combined wave energy (68 to 124). The odd window pops up – Thursday afternoon the 6th goes glassy and clean, and Tuesday morning the 11th is dead flat calm with glassy conditions on that 3ft ENE swell. But honestly, even then it’s “surfable but very ordinary.” The Pass (Tweed) is a consistent point break, so it’s not hopeless, but you’ll be scratching for a knee-high runner. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Then we hit a rough patch from Thursday the 9th through Monday the 10th – strong cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. Sunday the 9th sees 4ft to 5ft swell but it’s messy. Monday the 10th morning gets a brief pulse of 7ft from the NNW, but it’s short-period (6 seconds) and cross-onshore, so it’s a write-off for surfing. That 7ft is already too big for beginners. The rest of that week stays small and ordinary.

Now, the real story is the second week. From Friday the 14th onwards, the ocean wakes up. Friday the 14th morning sees a solid 12ft swell from the SSE (combined energy 1989), with a 9-second period. It’s big, powerful, and clean with cross-offshore winds. By Saturday the 15th, we’re looking at 10ft to 12ft from the ESE and SE, period stretching to 11 seconds, and energy climbing to 2717. This is proper groundswell, and with periods over 11 seconds, the waves will have real shape and punch. For The Pass, a point break, that long-period SSE swell is a dream – it’ll bend right in and offer some long, rippable walls. But anything over 8ft is strictly for experts, so leave the foamies at home.

The standout is Sunday the 16th. Sunday morning dishes up 13ft of SSE swell, a 12-second period, and combined energy of 8145 – that’s massive. Winds are moderate cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean. This is the best on offer, a true heavy-hitter day. Monday the 17th is still pumping with 10ft to 12ft, and by Monday afternoon the wind goes offshore from the SE, giving us “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The Pass is a consistent point, so it’ll handle the size, but expect a crowd – it’s a popular spot, often busy.

There’s a gap of about 5 days of small, ordinary surf before that big swell kicks in, but once it does, it’s game on. The best betting window is Sunday the 16th through Monday the 17th – that’s the big, clean, powerful groundswell you’ve been waiting for. The rest of the week holds good 4ft to 6ft ESE swell, but the real magic is that first big pulse.

Rusty.

Read more