The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of days are pretty quiet, so if you’re itching to paddle out, you might be staring at flat-ish, weak conditions. We’ve got a bit of swell but nothing that’s gonna light anyone’s fire just yet. The energy’s low – that combined swell energy is sitting around 177 early on, nothing to get worked up about. Water temps are right around 21°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no need to dig out the thick suit just yet.

Monday morning at The Pass (Tonga) is clean glass – wind is almost nothing out of the southeast. There’s a small, weak knee-high wave on offer, maybe 0.9m but it’s mostly short-period stuff. It’s surfable for a beginner just wanting to get wet, but honestly, it’s pretty average. The swell direction is SSE, but that’s not really the ideal ENE direction for this place. Energy is weak at 177, so expect mushy lines and not much push. By Monday afternoon, the wind switches to a cross-shore and it’s pretty much done – 0.8m and messy.

Tuesday looks rough. The wind cranks up onshore from the north, chop builds, and the swell drops to nothing – 0.5m in the morning, then a short-period bump at 1.3m in the afternoon. That’s not surf; that’s just windblown junk. Wednesday brings a bit more energy, and we start seeing some serious size pop up in the afternoon – 3.0m with a longer period. But the wind is howling from the south-southeast at 35 km/h, and it’s cross-off, so it’s clean but strong. That’s big, but it’s got a lot of energy – combined swell energy is up to 1368, which is strong. The problem is the period is only 8 seconds, so it’s a lot of mush and bump, not the kind of power you want. This is bigger, but probably messy.

Thursday is the real standout if you’re an experienced surfer. Morning has 3.0m of SSE swell with a 10-second period, and the energy is pumping – 1964 combined. Wind is cross-off from the southwest at 25 km/h, so the face is clean. This is proper size, more than 2.5m, so strictly for experts – beginners are sitting this one out. It’s powerful, but that long-ish period means the sets are solid. Later in the day, it drops to 2.5m but the wind stays clean. That’s your window for the harder stuff. The Pass is a point break, which is good because long-period swell can go a bit straight at beach breaks – but here it should line up nicely.

Friday settles down. Morning is 1.7m from the southeast with a 9-second period, wind is light offshore – clean and smooth. Energy is moderate at 498. That’s a fun, punchy day for a good surfer, but still not the biggest. Afternoon drops to 1.0m and it’s pretty average again.

The weekend isn't great. Saturday is small – 1.3m in the morning but cross-on wind, then it just fades. Sunday is flat – 0.5m and 0.4m, just poor. We’re looking at a few days of nothing serious until Tuesday.

Then, next week rolls in with a fresh pulse. Tuesday, September 23rd, brings 2.0m early but it’s cross-shore and messy. However, Wednesday, September 24th is interesting – early morning has 1.7m from the east, cross-shore wind, but then Friday, September 26th, is where it’s at.

That Friday morning – the 26th – is your best bet. Swell builds to 1.8m, but the direction is coming out of the east-northeast, which is exactly what The Pass wants to see. The period is 11 seconds, which is solid groundswell. Combined energy is 1378 – strong. The wind is light from the northeast, glassy in the morning. Break is clean, proper shape, that push is there. It’s a standout – good size, right direction, clean conditions. It’s not huge, but it’s quality. Crowds are likely though, so get in early.

After that, it fades again into the next week. Saturday, the 27th, is cross-on and choppy, and the following days are poor with clean but weak swell – 1.1m to 1.4m from the east, which is just not enough to get excited about. Energy stays moderate, between 154 and 241.

So, bottom line – if you’re a beginner, the only reasonable window is Monday morning early, and even that’s weak. For the experienced crew, Thursday the 18th is big but wild, and Friday the 26th is the pick of the fortnight – good size, proper direction, clean.

Stay stoked, and don’t force it when it’s not there.

Rusty

Read more