The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The forecast for The Pass kicks off with a bit of a wait. For the first few days, from now through the middle of next week, it’s pretty flat. You’ll see small, weak swells—not worth paddling out for. There’s a real gap of about four to five days with nothing worth mentioning. But don’t worry, it won’t stay that way.

Saturday 11 July is where things start to get interesting. Saturday morning, we’ve got a clean 5-foot swell rolling in from the SSE, with a moderate combined wave energy of 674. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the SSW at 6 mph, so the surface will be clean. The Pass is a point break that’s consistent and fairly exposed, and with the swell coming from the SSE, it’s going to line up nicely. The water temperature is sitting at 69°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. This is a solid beginner-friendly option, but expect the crowd to be there—this spot can get busy. Saturday afternoon sees a drop in size to 4 feet, but the period stretches out to 12 seconds, giving the waves more shape and energy. Wind shifts light cross from the NNE. Not the standout of the window, but a good entry point.

Now, the real standout hits us on Monday 20 July. After a mid-week lull and some very windy conditions, Monday afternoon delivers. The swell comes in at 10 feet from the ESE, with a long period of 11 seconds and a combined energy of 2525—that's strong. The wind is offshore from the SE at just 6 mph, keeping it clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers. At over 8 feet, it’s expert territory, so beginners should sit this one out. The Pass handles this kind of swell beautifully—a point break that loves a longer period groundswell from the ESE. The energy is there, the shape will be there.

Another standout to keep an eye on is Friday 24 July afternoon. Swell builds back to 8 feet from the SSE, with a moderate wave energy of 1351. The wind goes offshore from the SE at 6 mph, and the conditions are clean. This is again excellent for experienced surfers. The period is a punchy 9 seconds, so the sets will be a little more frequent.

And then, looking into the second week—less certain, but worth noting—Saturday 25 July morning could be a gem. The swell is 10 feet from the SSE, but the period drops to 8 seconds, so it’s a more windswell-driven pulse. The wind? Glassy. A perfect 3 mph from the NW. That’s a huge positive—clean, smooth surfaces. The combined energy is 1289, moderate. It’s a promising call for a weekend paddle, but keep in mind the shorter period might mean the waves are a bit less lined up at the point.

By the end of the window, Sunday 26 July sees the swell drop back to around 6 feet, and the wind stays light. Things settle down again.

A couple of warnings: There’s a big pulse of swell around the 16th of July, with heights hitting 18 feet and combined energy over 6000. But with that comes strong winds from the SSE at 25 mph. That setup is more for kite surfing than paddling. The conditions are marginal and very tough.

Take it as it comes. First week starts quiet, then we get some proper power. The Pass is the spot, especially for the more experienced crew when it gets over 8 feet. Keep an eye on Monday 20 July and that glassy Saturday 25 July morning.

Rusty.

Read more