The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for us. We’re in for a slow start, but the second half of the window has some real potential.

Right now, the ocean is flat and clean but not doing much. The water temp is sitting at 69.1°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year – nothing to complain about there. We’ve got a few days of nothing really happening until we see a big pulse of energy coming through later in the week.

The first real action kicks off on Thursday the 16th of July. The swell jumps up to 14.8 ft from the SSE, with a period of 10 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving, and the combined energy is a massive 3887 (moderate to strong), so this is serious stuff. By Thursday afternoon, the wind is a strong breeze from the south, cross-off, so the faces will be clean. But honestly, at 14.8 ft, this is expert-only territory – it’s going to be big, powerful, and not for the faint-hearted. The Pass (The-Pass) is a point break, so it can handle big swell, but you’ll need to know what you’re doing.

Friday the 17th of July morning sees the swell at 9.8 ft from the SSE, period 9 seconds, with fresh offshore winds from the SSE. That’s clean, but the size is still well over 8 ft, so again, only for the experienced crew. The energy is still high at 1698.

The standout of the whole window looks like Saturday the 18th of July afternoon. The swell hits 18.0 ft from the SE with a period of 12 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, which means proper power and shape. The combined energy is a massive 7326, which is very strong. The wind is a fresh breeze from the SSE, cross-off, keeping it clean. This is a big, gnarly day. The Pass is a point break, which is the perfect setup for a long-period swell like this – it’ll line up beautifully. But at this size, it’s strictly for experts. Expect crowds, because this is The Pass, and when it’s this good, the lineup will be busy.

Sunday the 19th of July is still solid, with 11.5 ft from the ESE, but the wind is a bit more onshore, so it’s not as clean as Saturday. The energy drops to 2897, still plenty of push.

By Monday the 20th of July afternoon, the swell drops to 7.5 ft from the ESE, with a gentle breeze, and the energy is 1039. Conditions are described as “very good surf conditions,” and this is a more manageable size. This could be a good day for the strong intermediate surfers.

The following week (around the 21st to 23rd of July) has smaller, cleaner waves in the 3 ft to 6 ft range, with light winds and some offshore sessions. It’s not the giant stuff from the weekend, but it’ll be fun and clean for a longboard or a fish.

Just keep in mind that the big swell on the 16th to 18th is a week away, so it’s a promising forecast but not locked in yet. The real standout is Saturday the 18th afternoon – if it comes together, it’ll be a session to remember.

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