The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local stretch, The Pass. Let’s get into it.

The good news is we’ve got a solid run of surf coming, but you’ve gotta be patient. The first few days are a write-off, but from Thursday the 16th onwards, things start to get interesting. There’s a big pulse of energy forecast, but the wind is going to be a real issue for a lot of it. The standout window is the morning of Tuesday the 21st, and honestly, that’s the call for the whole period.

We start with nothing really on offer. Wednesday the 15th has tiny 0.7ft swell from the east with a short 9-second period, and a blustery south wind making it messy. The combined energy reading is only 11 (weak), so it’s a flat day. The water temperature is 69°, which is pretty much average for the time of year.

Then things ramp up fast. Thursday the 16th sees a massive jump in swell, with 12ft to 13ft from the SSE. This is powerful stuff – the energy numbers are huge (1751 and 2314), but the wind is a cross-off from the south and SSE at 19-22 mph. That’s a strong breeze, and combined with the size, it’s going to be wild and unpredictable. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The period is short at 9 seconds, so it’s a messy, wind-affected swell with a lot of closeouts.

Friday the 17th backs off a touch to 8ft-8ft from the SSE, but the wind remains a problem. The morning sees a brief offshore from the SSE, but it’s still 19 mph. That’s a strong offshore wind, which will clean the faces but make it incredibly hard to paddle into. The energy is still moderate (757-790). It’s a session for the fit and the brave.

The weekend is a washout. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see 13ft to 15ft swell from the SSE and SE, with energy readings through the roof (2748 to 3690). The wind is a strong breeze, 25-28 mph. Sunday morning has a strong offshore, but at 15ft with a 10-second period and that wind, you’re looking at a very dangerous, hard-to-paddle situation. Only for the absolute top-tier experts.

Now, here’s the turn. Monday the 20th drops to 12ft from the ESE, with a 10-11 second period. The energy is still high (2661-2827), but the wind is finally cooperating. We get a fresh offshore from the SSE in the morning, then a moderate offshore from the SE in the afternoon. This is clean, but still big.

The standout is Tuesday the 21st. The swell drops to 8ft from the east in the morning, with a 10-second period, and the energy is 1387. Wind is a moderate offshore from the SE at 12 mph. Clean, powerful, and a much more manageable size for experienced surfers. The afternoon is even better with 8ft from the east, 10-second period, energy 1037, and light offshore wind from the SSE at 6 mph. The conditions are described as “excellent” and “very good”. This is your window. It’s a point break, so it’s built for this kind of swell direction, and the offshore wind will groom it beautifully. The crowd factor is “often”, so expect company, but it’ll be worth it.

After that, the swell fades. Wednesday 22nd to Friday 24th has 4ft to 6ft from the east, with periods around 9-10 seconds. The wind is light and variable, sometimes glassy. It’s surfable, but nothing special. The energy is moderate (503-249). The best of this is Thursday afternoon the 23rd, with a gentle offshore from the SE and 5ft from the east. It’s clean, but small.

From Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th, it gets really small. We’re talking 1ft to 3ft from the east and ENE, with short periods of 8-9 seconds and energy dropping to 29 (weak). The wind is a mix of cross and cross-off, but it’s mostly marginal. Not worth paddling out for.

Then there’s a late pulse. Wednesday 29th afternoon sees 6ft from the SSE, but it’s marginal. Thursday 30th looks better: 5ft to 6ft from the SSE, with a period jumping to 11 seconds on the afternoon. The energy is 898 (moderate), and the wind is light and cross-off. This is a promising, clean end to the run, but it’s more than a week away, so keep an eye on it.

The one true standout is Tuesday morning the 21st at The Pass. Clean, consistent, and solid. That’s the session to circle.

Rusty.

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