The Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here with a look at the coming weeks at The Pass – one of those classic point breaks that’s consistent and always calling.

Right now, we’ve got a solid pulse of energy in the water, but the wind is making things tricky. The swell is hanging around 12 feet from the SSE for the start of the week (Monday and Tuesday, July 6th and 7th), with a period of 9 to 11 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving – combined energy readings are in the 1700 to 3000+ range (moderate to strong). The trouble is the wind is a persistent 15 to 19 mph southerly, blowing cross-offshore. It’s keeping the surface clean on paper, but that’s a fresh breeze and it’s gonna create some fight on the paddle out. This is a beginner-friendly point, but at 12 feet, this is serious stuff – only for experienced surfers who know The Pass well. It’s too big for beginners.

Wednesday (July 8th) looks similar, still 12 feet dropping to 10 feet by the afternoon, same 15 mph wind from the south. Energy is still strong (2861–3078). By Thursday (July 9th), we see a slight drop to 8 feet in the morning, then 8 feet in the afternoon. Wind eases a touch to 9–12 mph, still cross-off from the SSW to south. The energy is still chunky (1092–2354), so it’s still a proper wave, but the wind is a bit more manageable. Still, this is clean but heavy.

Friday (July 10th) is the first real standout. The swell drops to 7 feet Friday morning and 7 feet in the afternoon, coming from the SE with a 10-second period. The wind goes light from the south to SW at 9 mph, cross to cross-off. The afternoon is looking *expect very good surf conditions* – clean, with a combined energy of 936, which is moderate but solid. The crowd is *often* there, so expect company, but the wave quality will be worth it. It’s a bit big for beginners (over 5 feet), but for intermediate and above, this is the pick of the first week.

Saturday morning (July 11th) is where it gets glassy. The swell drops to 5 feet from the SSE, period at 10 seconds, and the wind is a whisper from the WSW at just 3 mph – that’s a glass-off. Combined energy is 626 (moderate). This is clean as a whistle and a great size for all levels. But watch out – by Saturday afternoon the wind swings to a 9 mph NNE cross-onshore, and the swell goes to 4 feet from the ESE with a long 12-second period. That longer period groundswell can break a bit too straight at beach breaks, but at The Pass’s point, it should wrap in nicely. Still, the wind messes it up, so the morning is your window.

Sunday (July 12th) onward, we hit a long flat spell. Swell drops below 3 feet, and the energy craters to under 400, then down to just 4–7 by mid-July. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making for poor conditions. From Sunday July 12th all the way through to Thursday July 16th, it’s basically flat – nothing to get excited about.

Then, there’s a bit of a comeback. Friday July 17th afternoon sees a jump to 7 feet from the SSE, period 10 seconds, with a moderate breeze from the south. Combined energy hits 853. It’s marginal, but that’s the first sign of life. Saturday July 18th is the real standout of the second week – morning has 7 feet from the SSE (11 seconds), and the afternoon builds to 6 feet from the same direction with a 12-second period. Wind is a light 9 mph from the south and southwest, cross-off, and the afternoon is rated *expect very good surf conditions*. Energy is 934–974. That’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have some punch and nice shape – perfect for The Pass’s river mouth setup. This is the one to watch, but at this range, treat it as promising but not locked in.

After that, Sunday July 19th drops to 4 feet with a cross-onshore breeze, and Monday July 20th is back to messy, onshore junk.

Overall, the best windows are Friday July 10th afternoon and Saturday July 18th afternoon – both are clean, decent size, and quality waves. The water temperature is about average for this time of year.

Rusty.

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