National Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it's Rusty here, taking a look at what's cooking at National Park over the next couple of weeks or so. This is a classic point break setup that's fairly consistent, and it's exposed to the swell. It's best when the swell is coming from the ENE.

Things start off pretty quiet. The first half of the 16-day window is a bit of a write-off, I'm not gonna lie. Saturday the 11th and most of the following week have tiny, weak waves. We're talking about a long stretch of days where the combined energy sits well under 100 (343 being the highest of that period, dropping to a measly 13), so don't get your hopes up for anything ridable. The water temp is sitting around 69°, which is about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year, pretty average.

The real story here is the second week. We've got a big pulse of energy rolling in, but you've got to be careful what you wish for. Starting late on Thursday the 16th, the swell jumps up massively. The combined energy rockets into four-digit territory – 1131 by Thursday morning, building to 1254 that afternoon. We're looking at 8ft to 10ft SE swell, but the period is a short 8 to 9 seconds. This is a lot of raw power, but for a point break, that short period stuff can get a bit messy.

Now, by Friday the 17th, it gets serious. We've got a 10ft swell from the SE with a slightly better 11-second period, and the wind is fresh and offshore from the SE. The combined energy is a massive 2320. This is proper, heavy water. You need to be an expert to even think about paddling out here. This is not for the faint of heart or anyone still figuring things out.

The standout looks to be Sunday the 19th. The swell drops back a touch to a still-sizeable 8ft from the ESE, but the period is a solid 11 seconds and the wind stays offshore. The combined energy is still a hefty 1432. The data calls this "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and I have to agree. This is the pick of the bunch for those with the skills to handle it.

As we head into the following Monday the 20th, we see another peak hitting 10ft with an 11-second period, but the afternoon of Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st look fantastic too. On Tuesday the 21st afternoon, we have a 7ft ESE swell with a very long 13-second period, light offshore winds, and a combined energy of 1442. That's the kind of grunty, lined-up groundswell a point break like National Park is built for.

The waves gradually drop through the rest of that week and into the weekend of the 25th and 26th of July, but stay clean with offshore winds. By the 26th, we're back down to 2-3ft of clean, lined-up swell. A nice way to wind down.

So, here's the takeaway. The first week is for cleaning your wetsuit. The real action kicks off on the 16th of July with some big, powerful, but short-period swell that's only for the brave. Your absolute best bets are Sunday the 19th and Tuesday the 21st of July, when the size is still big and the conditions are world-class for experienced surfers.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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