National Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

This forecast is mostly about National Park. We’re staring at a couple of raw, windy days before things settle down into something cleaner, and then it fades out to almost nothing for a long stretch before a final tease at the end. The water temperature feels about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

Tuesday morning kicks off with a rough, lumpy 7 ft SE swell, but that cross-off wind is cranking at 16 mph so it’s going to be messy. The combined swell energy is moderate at 1026, but the score is low – it’s more of a fight than a pleasure. Tuesday afternoon gets bigger to 7 ft but the period drops to a short, weak 7 seconds (549 combined energy), and the wind picks up even more. This is not the day to paddle out; it’s more of a window-watch day.

Wednesday brings a bit of hope. The morning sits at 5 ft from the SE with a lovely long 12-second period (1017 combined energy) – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is still cross-off though, so the surface will have some texture. The afternoon jumps to a solid 8 ft SE swell with the same 12-second period, and the energy jumps to 1590. Still cross-off winds though, keeping it from being perfect. For a point break like National Park, that long period can mean lined-up waves, but these cross-off winds mean it won’t be glassy.

Thursday morning is punchy: 8 ft SE at 11 seconds, energy at 2164 – that’s getting into heavy territory. Swell size is pushing towards expert-only levels. Wind is still cross-off at 12 mph. Then Thursday afternoon is the real standout: 6 ft SE, 11 seconds, and the wind goes offshore. It’s “moderate offshore and clean” – this is the best session of the week. The combined energy is 773. If you can get out there Thursday afternoon at National Park, that’s your window. The swell direction (SE) lines up nicely with the optimum ENE for the break.

Friday continues the trend with a 6 ft SE swell (1227 energy) but the morning is cross-off again. Friday afternoon drops to 4 ft SE, offshore wind returns, and the energy is 544. Clean, manageable, and fun.

Saturday is small: 4 ft SE with an 11-second period (254 energy). Light cross-off winds – not bad, just small. The afternoon is even smaller at 3 ft.

Sunday morning is a write-off with onshore wind and a 3 ft SE. Sunday afternoon picks up a clean 3 ft ESE with light cross-off breeze, but it’s fading.

Then we hit a big dead zone. From Monday the 13th all the way through to Sunday the 19th, the swell drops below 3 ft, the energy numbers fall into double or even single digits, and the scores are zeros or ones. Many days are labelled “poor surf conditions.” There are a couple of glassy moments on the 13th afternoon (2 ft, glassy) and on the 19th morning (4 ft, glassy) but the swell is so small and weak – period drops to 7 seconds – that it’s barely rideable. This is a classic lull for the area.

The only flicker in the second week is on Tuesday the 21st afternoon: 3 ft SE swell with a long 12-second period, offshore wind, and a combined energy of 284. A clean, fun-size wave appears. And Wednesday the 22nd morning holds a similar 3 ft SE, 12-second period, clean with light cross-off winds (315 energy). For the second week, that Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning are the only ones worth looking at, but it’s small and the confidence is lower that far out.

So, my call: The best surf by a long shot is Thursday afternoon, July 9th, at National Park. That 6 ft SE groundswell with offshore winds and solid energy is your all-clear. Keep an eye on Friday afternoon as a backup.

Remember, between July 13th and July 21st, there’s next to nothing on offer. The surf just dies. Tides and fickle local conditions will be the enemy. Hang in there.

Stay wet, catch a good one.

Rusty

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