National Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the National Park over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a pretty intense forecast for the first part of the run – we’ve got a solid pulse of SE groundswell arriving right off the bat this Saturday. The swell is going to be big and powerful, with combined energy readings over 1000 (1067 Saturday morning, ramping up to 1500 by afternoon). But here’s the rub: at 8ft to 10ft, this is already big, and with stronger 9-10 second periods, it’s pushing into expert territory for this point break. The wind will be a fresh cross-offshore from the S, keeping it clean but not exactly glassy. The water temp is sitting at 69°, right about normal for the time of year. Honestly, for most of us the bragging rights might be the best part; this is a beast of a swell and I'd be cautious.

Sunday the 19th is the real standout, but with a massive caveat. The swell jumps to a solid 13ft from the SE, with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is huge – over 2800. That’s not just big, that’s massive. The wind is a strong offshore from the SSE, which sounds dreamy but at that size, it’s going to be a battle to even get out. It’s clean, but it’s for experts only. That trend continues into Monday, with 10ft to 12ft surf and fresh offshore SE breezes. Definitely still clean, but at that size the paddle-out is going to sap your energy before you even get a wave. You need to be on your game.

Now, the standouts start to arrive early next week. The best window for the average competent surfer is Tuesday the 21st. The swell has dropped to a much more manageable 7ft to 8ft from the ESE, with a nice long 10-second period on the morning session. That’s a great combo of size and shape for a point break. The wind is a moderate offshore from the SE, keeping the surface clean. The combined energy is still good (939 in the morning, dropping through the day), but it’s gone from overwhelming to just powerful and fun. Expect very good conditions here. It won’t be a circus if it’s a weekday, but this spot can get a crowd.

Wednesday the 22nd is a solid follow-up, with the swell easing to 5ft to 5ft from the E, with a gentle offshore breeze. The wave energy is way down to 394, making for a much more relaxed paddle and fun rides. It’s not the standout of the standouts, but it’ll be clean and user-friendly.

We run into a flat spell from about Thursday the 23rd onwards. Thursday sees tiny 3ft to 4ft E swell with glassy conditions in the morning, but the energy is low (156-134) and it's just ordinary. Then we get a little spike on Friday the 24th, but it’s another big one at 10ft from the SE. Combined energy is back up into the 800-900 range. The wind is fresh offshore, so it will be clean again, but once more, 10ft with an 8-second period is going to be a heavy wave, condensing on a point. Not for the faint hearted.

From there, the surf just fades away. We slip into a long dry spell from around the 26th of July right through until the end of the month. The swell drops to 4ft and below, with energy readings down in the double digits or low hundreds, and the wind flips around to cross-off or onshore. It’s a classic winter flat patch for this area. The forecast shows a small uptick on the 1st of August, with 6ft from the NE and a moderate offshore wind, but it’s short period (7 seconds) and the energy is moderate at best (303). A bit of hope on the horizon, but nothing to get excited about yet.

So to wrap it up: if you’ve got the nerve and the paddle fitness, Saturday to Monday is a big, clean, expert-level mission. But for the rest of us, circle Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd of July on the calendar. That’s the sweet spot with clean, manageable waves at the National Park.

Rusty.

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