National Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for National Park. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming in, but it’s a real mixed bag for the next couple of weeks. The first few days look like the real deal for experienced surfers, but then it’s going to drop right off into a long, quiet spell before a possible return to form at the very end.

The water is sitting at 69°, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing to worry about there.

The standout period hits first, starting Monday the 20th. A serious pulse of swell is rolling in, with a combined wave energy of 2250, and that’s some serious power. We’re looking at a solid 12 ft of swell from the ESE, with a 10-second period, and a fresh offshore wind from the SE. This is proper, world-class size for this point break, but let’s be clear: at 12 ft, this is for experts only. This is a big, powerful wave. The offshore wind is going to make it glassy and clean, but don’t even think about paddling out if you’re not on your A-game.

Tuesday the 21st keeps the pace going. The morning sees 8 ft of swell from the ESE with a moderate offshore breeze. That’s still big, chunky surf, and the combined energy is still a massive 1230. It’s a touch smaller than Monday, but still a serious session for the experienced crew. The afternoon drops a little to 7 ft, still clean and offshore, still damn good.

Wednesday the 22nd sees the swell dropping into the 5 ft range, with the wind going cross-offshore. It’s cleaner, and the energy is down to 503, but it’s still a very good wave. Thursday the 23rd is smaller again, around 4 ft, with a shorter 8-second period, but still clean. The energy is dropping into the low hundreds.

Now, here’s the bad news. From Friday the 24th onwards, the surf really starts to fade. We’re looking at a long stretch of days with waves under 3 ft and way too weak to get excited about. The combined energy drops into the double digits from the 26th, and it stays that way for a solid week. There’s a gap of almost no decent surf from the 24th of July right through to the end of the month. It’s a real bummer, but it happens.

We do see a flicker of life on the 1st of August. The swell picks back up to 4 ft to 4 ft from the ESE, with a gentle offshore wind. The energy is back into the low hundreds, which is a start. It’s not the big stuff from the beginning of the period, but it’s surfable.

Then, the very end of the outlook on the 4th of August shows a sudden spike. Tuesday morning we see 7 ft from the SSE, jumping to 8 ft in the afternoon from the SE, with a moderate offshore wind and a combined energy of 809. That’s a promising, long-range sign. It’s a week and a half away, so treat it as a hopeful whisper, but it’s the only other real event on the horizon. If that holds, it’ll be another expert-only session.

So, the call is easy. The absolute best is right now, Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st. Big, powerful, clean, offshore groundswell. It’s a proper spectacle. The point break is exposed, and the swell direction is coming from the ESE, which is right in the zone for optimum performance. Expect crowds at a spot like this when it’s firing, because it will be good.

After that, it’s a long wait and a prayer for that last pulse at the start of August.

Rusty out.

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