National Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at the charts for National Park this morning. This is a pretty wild forecast – it's a slow burn for most of the period, but there's a proper little gem hiding right at the end. We've got a solid two weeks of mostly small, clean, but average waves before something special shows up.

We're looking at a long stretch from the start of August right through until the 12th where it's all a bit "ordinary." You'll get a surf, sure, but nothing to write home about. The water temp is sitting at about 69°, which is just a tick cooler than usual for this time of year – nothing drastic.

For the first week, from Saturday the 1st right through to Friday the 7th, it's a real grind. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and coming out of the east or southeast. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate. The winds are mostly offshore or clean, so it'll look pretty, but there's just no grunt. The best of this average run is probably Sunday morning the 2nd, with a 6ft swell from the ESE, clean lines, and offshore winds from the SE. The wave energy is moderate. It's surfable, but it's not gonna have you racing out the door.

Then from the 8th through to the 12th, it gets even smaller and more inconsistent, with a few days of poor surf conditions or flat spells. The 9th and 10th have some cross and cross-on winds, making a mess of what little is there.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. After that long, flat run, Thursday the 13th suddenly shows some pulse. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the SSE with a 6-second period in the morning, then switches to a solid 5ft from the SE with an 8-second period and clean offshore winds in the afternoon. The energy jumps, and conditions are clean. That Thursday arvo is a standout for that middle part of the month.

But the real headline act, and I mean this is the one to circle on the calendar, is Sunday the 16th of August. It's over two weeks away, so take it with a grain of salt, but the models are lighting up. The morning has a solid 7ft swell from the SE, and the afternoon pumps up to a hefty 8ft from the same direction with the energy hitting a very strong level. The winds are a steady offshore from the SE at 16 mph. This is proper size, and for a point break like National Park that's exposed to the east-northeast, this southeast swell will wrap in nicely. The period is only 7 seconds, so it's a bit of a wind swell, not a long-period groundswell, which means it won't be as clean as a groundswell but it'll have plenty of push. For a point, that shorter period can actually help keep the waves from closing out. This is expert territory, and the crowds will likely be there because it's the best thing on offer by a mile. If you're not on it, you'll be kicking yourself.

So, to sum it up: a whole lot of nothing for the first two weeks, a nice little spike on the 13th, and then a potential cracker on the 16th. Stay patient.

Rusty

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