Narrow Neck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for Narrow Neck.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up. The pattern starts with a tiny window of clean, small surf before a long, brutal stretch of howling onshores and building swell that’ll turn the place into a washing machine. Then, if you can hold out, there’s some real promise late in the forecast.

The first real chance to get wet this Saturday morning, the 11th. It’s early, but the stars align. The wind is glassy, dead calm, and the water’s sitting at 70°, which is dead average for this time of year. The swell is a tiny 3ft out of the southeast, but it’s a long-period groundswell at 10 seconds, giving it some shape. The combined energy is weak (202), so it’s not going to be cracking, but for a beginner-friendly reef break, it’ll be clean and fun on a longboard. Later that afternoon, the wind swings to a light cross from the NE, and the swell picks up to 4ft with a 12-second period, bumping the energy up to moderate (619). It’s a decent little Saturday, but the tide could be a factor.

Then the curtain drops. From Sunday the 12th through to the morning of Monday the 20th, it’s a write-off. A massive high-pressure system or something has the wind screaming from the south and southeast, mostly cross-onshore at 18-25 mph. The swell gets huge—we’re talking 10ft to 13ft with periods around 10-11 seconds and crazy energy levels, peaking at 5741 on the 19th. That’s very strong. But the wind is just going to shred it. It’s messy, lumpy, and absolutely not for paddling. Frankly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Alright, here’s the payoff. After a week of pain, Monday the 20th shows some signs of life with the swell dropping to 8ft and the wind easing, but it’s still a bit onshore. Keep your eyes on Tuesday morning, the 21st. That’s the standout. We’ve got a clean 7ft swell from the east with a cracking 12-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-offshore from the WSW, keeping the faces clean. The energy is strong (1312). This is a proper swell, but at 7ft it’s getting into the territory where it’s more for experienced surfers at this reef. It’s the best on offer by a long shot.

The rest of the period after that is a slow fade, with the wind being a problem again for most of the afternoons, though the mornings of the 25th and 26th look clean with moderate 4ft to 5ft swell. The 26th afternoon is even glassy. Keep an eye on those.

So, the call is: big wait for a big payoff on Tuesday the 21st morning. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too big and messy to be good.

Rusty.

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