Narrow Neck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me tell you how it is. The next couple of weeks are going to be a test of patience. We've got Narrow Neck as our only real option, and it's mostly a waiting game for the good ones.

The swell energy is mostly weak to moderate for the first week, with numbers in the low-to-mid 100s (167, 142, 126). It isn't until the 17th that things start to build, but that comes with a ton of wind and mess. The real potential shows up late in the window, around the 21st and 24th, when things finally line up.

Starting Sunday morning, the 9th, we have a clean 3ft east swell at Narrow Neck, but it's weak with only 167 energy. The wind is a light cross-offshore, which is nice, but the waves are just ordinary. The afternoon gets worse with a cross breeze and 3ft – not worth the paddle.

Monday the 10th morning is blown out by a fresh 19 mph cross-offshore wind, although the 3ft remains. The afternoon is a different story – a 16 mph offshore wind cleans up the 3ft for a bit, but it’s still only a one-star session. Energy is still weak at 189.

Tuesday the 11th has a gentle offshore breeze in the morning, but the swell drops to 2ft with energy down to 79. It’s clean but tiny. The rest of the week stays in that same vein – small, weak swells from 2ft to 3ft, with energy mostly below 100. The winds are light but often cross-shore or onshore, making it hard to get excited.

The 16th and 17th see the swell start to pick up, but the wind swings onshore and strong. Sunday the 17th has 5ft to 6ft of east-southeast swell, but with a strong onshore wind and energy jumping to 287 to 353, it’s going to be a choppy, lumpy mess. The 19th sees a big jump in energy to 1201, with a 7ft swell, but it’s all cross-onshore and poor. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Skip forward to the 21st, a Friday. The morning is still questionable, but Friday afternoon at Narrow Neck... that's the standout. The wind drops to glassy, and we have a 5ft east swell with a 9-second period. The energy is moderate at 417, and for the first time in the forecast, the conditions are actually good. That’s your window.

Then on Sunday the 24th, it looks even better. The morning is glassy again with a 4ft east swell, but the period stretches to 11 seconds, which adds some punch. The energy is 411. This is the other standout – a clean, longer-period groundswell hitting the reef. It’s a good one.

Bear in mind, this is a reef break, so a longer period swell like that can be a bit more lined up, which is usually a good thing here. The water temp is around 69°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there. Crowds are sometimes a factor at Narrow Neck, so you might have some company for those good sessions.

So, the plan is simple: don’t bother with the next week. Wait for the 21st afternoon and the 24th morning. Those are the ones. Everything else is a skunk.

Rusty out.

Read more