Guillotines Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a long-range look at Guillotines, a point break that’s pretty exposed to the south-east but only inconsistent in how often it turns on. Right now, there’s a bit of a quiet spell to start, but there’s one real standout hiding in the second week. The water’s sitting at 62°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Sunday the 16th with a tiny 2ft swell from the south, 11-second period. It’s light rain with a light SSW breeze offshore, so the surface is clean. But the combined energy is only 176 – weak – and with that inconsistent nature, you’d be scratching for a ride. Monday the 17th is even smaller, 2ft from the south, with a short 8-second period and cross-shore wind. Not much happening.

Tuesday the 18th brings a bit of hope: 3ft from the east-southeast, but only 6-second period and zero wind in the morning – glassy as a mirror. Combined energy sits at 81, so still weak. That afternoon, it drops to 1.0ft. Wednesday the 19th wallows in weak onshore junk, and from Thursday the 20th right through to Sunday the 24th, we’re in a proper flat spell. Day after day of tiny 1.0ft to 2ft waves with weak energy readings mostly below 50 – honestly, it’s a wasteland. Don’t bother paddling out.

Then, on Tuesday the 25th of August – that’s the standout. We get a jump: 5ft from the south, 10-second period, with a solid SSW offshore breeze at 16 mph. The combined energy hits 619 – that’s moderate, with some punch – and the forecast calls for “expect good surf conditions.” For Guillotines, which is a point break, that longer-period south swell (10 seconds is solid) will wrap in nicely. The wind is offshore and clean, but keep in mind this spot is inconsistent, so when it does come together, it’s a treat. Afternoon drops to 4ft, still clean but a notch down.

Wednesday the 26th holds decent energy (293) with 3ft from the south-southeast, but the wind is cross-off and stronger, and the conditions are rated poor. Thursday the 27th has 4ft to 5ft from the northeast, but that’s a short-period 6-second wind swell – crumbly and messy, even with offshore wind. Friday the 28th is surfable but ordinary, and by Saturday the 29th, the energy fades to weak.

Now, here’s the kicker: Monday the 31st of August, a big pulse shows up – 12ft from the south, 9-second period, with a combined energy of 1889 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. But the wind is light and cross-shore, creating ripples, and the guidance calls it “marginal” with questionable tide. That’s a lot of water for a spot that’s inconsistent; the short period (9 seconds) and size mean it’ll be fat and crumbly, maybe more of a tow-in or kite session than a paddle. Not for beginners – over 8ft is expert territory.

Bottom line: the best on offer is Tuesday the 25th, with that 5ft south swell and clean offshore wind. Everything else is either flat, weak, or blown out. If you can wait, that’s your window.

That’s it from me. Stay frothy.
Rusty

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