Blue Bowls Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got Blue Bowls on the radar for the next couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.

Overall, the pattern is a bit of a slow burner. The first solid window of clean surf looks like it’ll be early next week, but we’ve got a few days of building energy and some tricky wind to sift through first. The combined swell energy is in the moderate to strong range, reaching up to 3238 (combined energy of all swells directed here), so there’s plenty of push in the water.

The water temperature is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the wetsuit at home.

We start Wednesday, September 9th, with a small 3ft to 4ft SSW swell, but it’s a bit of a mess. The wind is onshore or light cross-onshore, and the surf is rated as poor or marginal. Not worth paddling out yet.

Thursday, September 10th, sees the swell bump up to 5ft from the SSW, period stretching to 15 seconds, so some decent energy is starting to trickle in. The wind is still light and onshore in the morning, but by the afternoon it goes light S at 5 km/h, nearly glassy. The combined energy jumps to 2192, and the wave comment says “marginal,” but that afternoon window is the first real glimmer of hope.

Friday, September 11th, the swell builds to 5ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon, still from the SSW. The period is nice and long, 19 seconds in the morning, so there’s some proper groundswell in the water. The wind is cross-on and then cross, combined energy is well over 3000, but the surf quality is still rated as “marginal.” It’s a powerful, lumpy setup.

Saturday, September 12th, is where things start to clean up. The swell is 6ft to 6ft, period 16 seconds, and the wind goes cross-offshore from the WSW to W at 20 km/h. The wave comment is “clean,” and the combined energy is still high (1747 to 1484). This is the best-looking day in the first week. The wind is moderate, but it’s cross-off, so the waves will be well-shaped at this reef.

Sunday, September 13th, the swell drops back to 4ft with a 14-second period. The wind is cross, and the surf is small and a bit choppy. Not a standout.

The standout window is Saturday, September 12th. The SW swell is solid, the period is long, and the cross-offshore wind will keep it clean. The combined energy is strong, and the wave comment confirms it. This is the one to circle.

From Sunday, September 14th, through to Wednesday, September 16th, the surf stays in the 3ft to 4ft range, with cross or cross-on winds. The combined energy is moderate. Then on Wednesday afternoon, September 16th, we get a brief moment of glory: the wind goes glassy (ENE at 5 km/h), and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The swell is only 4ft, but with that glassy surface and a 15-second period, the reef will be super clean. It’s a smaller day, but quality will be high.

After that, the outlook gets a bit grim. From Thursday, September 17th, through to the end of the forecast on September 24th, the surf is mostly in the 3ft to 5ft range, but the wind is consistently cross-on or cross, and the wave comments are “marginal” or “poor.” The combined energy drops off, especially after September 20th, when the swell direction swings to SSE and the period shortens to 10 seconds. By September 22nd and 23rd, the conditions are rated as “poor surf conditions” – choppy, short-period, and messy.

There’s a gap of poor surf from around September 17th through to the end of the period, with only that small glassy window on the 16th offering a real chance. If you’re looking to score, aim for Saturday the 12th or that glassy Wednesday afternoon.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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