Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it. We've got one spot to focus on for the whole 16-day window, and it's a proper reef setup that demands respect.

The outlook starts off promising but then gets a bit messy in the middle before offering a late run of solid, powerful swell. The water temp is a touch warmer than usual for the time of year at about 86°F, so it's nice and tropical feeling.

Jailbreaks is the play. This reef break (exposed to the south) will have clean waves right from Sunday the 6th. Morning brings a light offshore breeze and a clean 4ft swell from the SSE with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (305). It's not huge, but the conditions are sweet – glassy, clean lines. Sunday afternoon stays clean with a 4ft SSE swell and a 3 mph offshore, energy (279). Monday the 7th is the standout early on – glassy morning conditions with a 3.3ft SSE swell, and it's pure perfection. Light offshore wind and clean surf make this a real winner for the advanced surfer. It's fairly consistent here, but this break does get crowds sometimes, so keep an eye out.

From Tuesday the 8th, the swell ticks up a notch. Tuesday afternoon has a 4.3ft SE swell with 9-second period, and the energy jumps to moderate-to-strong (503). Winds stay cross-offshore, keeping it clean. Good, solid fun.

Then things get complicated from Wednesday the 9th right through to Monday the 14th. The swell direction swings to SSW and the period gets long – we're talking 16 to 20 seconds. That's groundswell energy, and while it's powerful (the energy numbers hit four digits, like 1719 on Thursday the 10th and 2579 on Friday the 11th), the wind turns to cross and cross-off from the WNW and W, gusting 12-19 mph. The wave comment calls it marginal. The waves will have power, but the cross-shore winds will mess up the surface, making it bumpy and less appealing for a clean session. The swell height hangs around 4ft to 5ft, and with the long period, it'll be walling up and probably too straight for a beach break – but this is a reef, so it might still offer some deeper lines for the experienced. The energy is strong to very strong (up to 2579), but the quality isn't there due to the wind. It's not the kind of day you race down for unless you're after a battle.

After that, things clean up a bit from the 15th to the 17th, but the swell drops back to 2.3ft to 3.6ft. Still long period, still cross-off winds. It's okay, but nothing special. Energy drops to the 500-900 range.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Friday the 18th of September is the big one. We've got a 6.9ft SSW groundswell with an 18-second period, and the energy is a massive 2911 – that's strong to very strong. Winds are cross-offshore from the WSW at 9 mph, which is manageable. This is big, powerful reef surf. The wave comment still says "marginal," but for an advanced surfer, this is the session. Saturday the 19th holds similar size, 6.9ft and 6.6ft, with energy in the 2000s. Winds stay cross-off, though picking up to 16 mph. It's big, it's raw, and it's only for experts – over 8ft is the expert threshold, and we're touching it. The swell period is 16-17 seconds, so it'll be pumping with power, but again, the cross-off wind will put a bit of texture on it. Sunday the 20th winds pick up to 19 mph from the SW, making the conditions more challenging, but the swell holds at 5.2ft.

So, the best of the whole run? Monday the 7th of September is the glassy, clean, smaller winner for a perfect day out. And for the big-wave crew, Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th of September are the standouts – huge SSW groundswell, very high energy, and just about manageable winds. Don't miss those if you can handle the size.

Read more