Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the first week is a frustrating grind. The ocean’s got plenty of energy, with combined swell energy readings hitting between 776 and 2917, but the wind is just a mess. We’ve got a solid, long-period SSW groundswell running from the 10th through the 16th, mostly hovering around 4ft to 5ft, and the period is a juicy 14 to 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, which means it’ll be fat and powerful, but at a place like Jailbreaks, that long period can make it a bit tricky – it tends to stand up and wall up, so you want to be on your game. The wind is the killer here. It’s a constant moderate to fresh breeze from the west, mostly cross-off, which is okay, but it’s also swinging into a full cross and even cross-chop on the 13th. That Sunday is a write-off. The water is a warm 87°, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, which is nice.

The best of the first week is slim pickings. Thursday the 10th morning has a clean 5ft of SSW swell with a 16-second period, and a cross-off breeze. The energy is strong at 1595, but it’s a risk t-storm day, so you’ll be dodging showers. It’s the most surfable window in that first block, but it’s not a stand-out. The Thursday afternoon and Friday sessions get blown out with a stronger cross and cross-off wind, making it a battle.

Then we hit a real lull. From the 16th up through the 24th, things drop off. The swell size drops below 3ft for a few days, and the energy plummets to the 300-900 range. The wind stays mostly cross-off, but the swell is just too weak and short-period. It’s a long, flat spell where you’re better off just cleaning the wax off your board.

Now, hold on to your wetsuits, because the last few days of the forecast get interesting. The 19th of September – Saturday morning and afternoon – sees a real pulse. The swell jumps to 6ft and 6ft from the SSW, with a period of 15-16 seconds. The combined energy is back up over 1500, and the wind is a clean cross-off westerly. That’s the best looking window in the whole run. It’s a solid, powerful wave for the advanced crew. Beginners should sit this one out – 6ft at a reef break with that long period is no joke. The 19th is the day to circle on the calendar. The 20th is still okay, but the wind picks up and the swell drops.

The very end of the run, from the 21st to the 25th, the swell direction shifts to the S and SSE, and the period drops to 10-11 seconds. The energy is weak, and the wave comment is mostly “poor” or “marginal.” It’s all over by then.

So the bottom line: the first week is a frustrating, windy grind. The 10th morning is your best bet for a quick, average session. The real standout is Saturday the 19th of September. Get out there for that 6-6ft SSW groundswell with the clean cross-off breeze. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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