Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for the next couple of weeks.

The first bit of action is this Wednesday morning, 22 July, at Jailbreaks. We’re starting off clean with a light offshore breeze. Swell is small at 4 ft from the SSE with a short period of 8 seconds, so it’s not got much push behind it. The combined energy is weak at 240, so you’ll be hunting for the little ones. Still, it’s a clean start, and the water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Wednesday afternoon holds steady with similar size, 4 ft, still SSE, still short period. The wind goes cross-offshore, so the face will stay clean. It’s fun, but not a standout.

Thursday, 23 July, the wind switches to cross-shore and the conditions get a bit more marginal. There’s a slight bump in period to 9-10 seconds and the energy climbs to 337-401, but the wind isn’t doing us any favours. Friday is even more marginal with a mix of small SW and SSE swells, and the wind goes cross-onshore, putting ripples on the face. Not worth rushing out for.

Now, Saturday 25 July is where it starts to get interesting. Morning has a 3 ft SSW groundswell at 13 seconds – that longer period means better shaped waves, though it might be a bit straight at a reef break like this. The wind is cross-offshore and it’s clean. By the afternoon, the swell picks up to 4 ft from the SE, period 10 seconds, and the energy jumps to 522 (moderate). The wind stays light and cross-offshore. This is a good session.

Sunday 26 July is the first real standout. Morning sees 5 ft from the SE with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is strong at 832. The wind is offshore from the SW, glassy. This is a fun, clean wave with some power. The afternoon holds similar size and period, with a slight cross-offshore breeze. This is your pick of the first week.

Monday 27 July is still good, with 4 ft SE swell, 10-second period, energy around 529, and the wind stays light cross-offshore. Clean, consistent waves. Tuesday gets a bit tricky – the swell drops to 3 ft, but the period is a very long 16 seconds, so it’s a groundswell. The energy is moderate at 537, but the wind picks up to 9-12 mph, making it less clean. That long period at a reef might actually line up nicely, but the wind is a concern.

The following week, from 29 July onwards, is a mixed bag. The swell stays small, 3-4 ft, and the period is all over the place – some very long 16-20 second swells, but the wind is moderate to fresh, 9-19 mph, mostly cross-offshore. The energy numbers climb into the 500-900 range, but the conditions are marginal with that wind. The real spike comes on 31 July – Friday afternoon – with a 4 ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and the combined energy hits 1016 (strong). The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore, and the forecast says “excellent for experienced surfers.” That’s a big call, but the period is very long, and the energy is strong, so expect well-formed, powerful waves with long gaps between sets. It’s a reef, so it should hold up well.

Then, 1 August Saturday morning and afternoon are the best of the whole run. Morning: 5 ft from the S, 9-second period, but the wind is offshore from the SW at 9 mph, and the energy is 708 (strong). The afternoon bumps up to 5 ft from the SSE, still offshore, energy 650. That’s a solid chest-to-head-high wave, clean, and with an offshore wind. This is the standout. Perfect for anyone who can handle it.

After that, Sunday 2 August drops off with a 4 ft S swell, and the wind picks up again. The rest of the run into early August has some huge energy numbers – 1408, 1707, 1330 – but the swell is only 4-5 ft and the period is very long, 16-21 seconds, with a moderate to fresh cross-offshore wind. The wind is the spoiler here. The waves will be there, but they won’t be clean. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the strong wind.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Saturday 1 August, with clean offshore winds and a solid 5-5 ft SSE swell. If you can wait, that’s the one. The Friday 31 July afternoon is also a strong runner-up for the experienced crew. The first week has some good days, especially Sunday 26 July, but nothing beats that first weekend of August.

Rusty.

Read more