Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's cookin' for Jailbreaks.

Right off the bat, we're looking at a pretty drawn-out stretch of surf that's more about patience than pumping waves. The water is sitting at a warm 85°, which is bang on average for this time of year – no surprises there.

The whole forecast is plagued by a lot of "marginal" conditions and a few days of genuinely poor surf. The first few days, from the 28th of July right through the 31st, are a write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and while the wind is a clean cross-off, the wave energy is just too weak. The best you'll see in that first week is a tiny 4 ft on the 28th afternoon, but with a short period, it's just not worth the paddle.

Things don't really improve until Monday the 3rd of August. That's a solid week of waiting. On Monday morning, we get a clean 2 ft from the SW with a really long period, and the energy is climbing into the moderate range. The real standout of the whole forecast window is the Monday afternoon session. The swell builds to 4 ft from the SSW, a very long period of 16 seconds, and the wind is a gentle cross-off breeze. The combined energy is solid, and the conditions are clean. This is your best shot for the entire 16 days – a classic, lined-up reef break with a bit of push.

The following week has a few other promising moments. Wednesday the 5th of August afternoon sees a 4 ft SSW groundswell with a very long period of 18 seconds and a big energy reading, but the wind is up to 15 mph, though still cross-off. That's a powerful wave, but you'll want to be on your game. For the experts, the morning of the 12th of August might be one to watch, with a 6 ft SSE swell, but remember, anything over 5 ft starts to get tricky for beginners, and over 8 ft is for experts only. That one is pushing 6 ft, and while the wind is clean, the period is a shorter 11 seconds, so it'll be a bit lumpy and less organized than the long-period groundswells.

The bottom line: wait for the 3rd of August. That Monday afternoon is the gem. The other days are hit and miss, mostly miss, with the energy all over the place. It's a reef break, so those long-period swells will really wrap in and offer some proper lines, but the consistency is lacking for most of the run.

Rusty.

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