Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down in feet and miles per hour.

The next couple of weeks are a real test of patience. The first week is almost all small, choppy, and just not worth the paddle. The only light at the end of the tunnel is a clean, offshore morning right at the end of the forecast period.

The only break we’re looking at is Jailbreaks – a reef break that’s exposed to the south and south-southwest. It breaks fairly consistently, but it can get crowded at times.

From Sunday, August 2nd, through to around Thursday, August 13th, it’s a long slog. The swell is tiny – mostly 2 ft to 5 ft – and coming from the right direction (SSW or S), but the energy is weak to moderate (229 to 1089). The periods are long, which means better-shaped waves but longer waits between sets. The wind is a moderate breeze from the west or west-northwest, blowing cross-off or cross-shore, which messes up the surface. We’ve got storm risks and cloudy skies. The water temp is about average for this time of year. The whole stretch is marked as marginal or poor. It’s really not a paddle surfer’s window – more of a kite-surfing kind of setup.

Then we get a lull around August 14th and 15th. The swell drops to 2 ft to 4 ft, and the energy is weak (247 to 478). The wind eases to a light breeze, and the skies clear. By Saturday morning, August 15th, we’ve got 4 ft of swell from the SSE with a 9-second period, and a light cross-off wind. The combined energy is still weak (362), but for the first time, the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s small, but it’s clean.

The real standout, and the only time I’d get wet, is Sunday, August 16th. The morning is the pick: a 3 ft SSE swell with a 10-second period, and the wind is offshore from the SW at 9 mph. The water is glassy, the surface is clean, and the combined energy is low (247), but for a small wave, it’s as good as it gets at Jailbreaks. The afternoon is still clean but the wind turns cross-off, so the morning is the call.

After that, Monday, August 17th, the swell drops to 3 ft and the energy fades to 189, and it’s back to poor conditions.

So, the bottom line: nearly two weeks of nothing, then a clean, offshore morning on Sunday, August 16th. That’s your window. Mark it on the calendar.

Rusty.

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