Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Oi, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Jailbreaks for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, overall, it’s a slow start for a few days. The surf is small and the winds are mostly cross-off or cross, which keeps things a bit messy. There’s some moderate energy in the water, around 361, but it’s just not clean enough to get excited about. The water temp is sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

We start off on Sunday the 5th of July. Morning sees a small 3ft SSE swell with a 10-second period, but the cross-off wind from the west at 15 mph keeps it from being any good. The afternoon is much the same – clear skies, but the same onshore-cross wind kills it. Monday the 6th is more of the same: small swell, cross-off wind, and a "marginal" call for the morning. The afternoon shows a longer period swell of 17 seconds from the SSW, but at 2ft it’s not worth paddling out for. Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th are similar – small swells, cross-off winds, and a lot of “poor” or “marginal” comments. The energy is building into the moderate range (501 on Tuesday morning) but the quality just isn’t there.

We get a bit of a lift on Thursday the 9th. The morning brings a 4ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 681 – that’s solid moderate energy. Winds are still cross-off from the west at 12 mph, and while it’s called “marginal,” it’s the best looking window in the first week. The afternoon holds similar size and energy but still with the cross-off wind.

Friday the 10th sees a shift. The wind swings to the northwest at 6 mph, giving us a cross-shore breeze. The swell holds at 3ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. It’s still only a “marginal” call, but it’s cleaner than what we’ve had. The afternoon though, the wind picks up to 12 mph and it gets chopped up again.

The weekend of the 11th and 12th is pretty flat and poor. Swell drops to 2ft to 3ft, period drops to 12-13 seconds, and the cross-shore winds from the WNW create a cross-chop. Not worth it.

Now, Monday the 13th offers a glimmer. The morning shows a 4ft S swell with a 12-second period, and the energy hits 722 – solid moderate. Winds are light cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph, keeping it clean. It’s still called “marginal,” but it’s the best of a pretty average run.

The following days, from Tuesday the 14th to Wednesday the 15th, are all “marginal” with a mix of cross and cross-off winds. Swells range from 3ft to 4ft, with periods varying from 11 to 17 seconds. Not much to write home about.

Then we get to the true standout. Wednesday the 15th of July, in the afternoon, the winds ease and turn cross-off from the west at 9 mph. The swell is 4ft from the SSE with a 10-second period, and the energy is 510. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best looking session in the whole forecast. The next day, Thursday the 16th, is even cleaner – glassy conditions with a WSW wind at just 3 mph in the morning, and the same 4ft SSE swell. The afternoon is also glassy. This is the window to aim for: clean, waist-to-chest high waves, with a light offshore feel.

Friday the 17th continues the good run. The morning brings a 3ft SSE swell with light offshore winds from the south at 6 mph. The afternoon drops to 2ft but from the SSW with a longer 13-second period, and still clean. Saturday the 18th offers small but clean surf with offshore winds, 2-2ft swells from the south, and long periods of 17-18 seconds. These are groundswells, and at a reef break like Jailbreaks, they’ll set up nicely. The weekend of the 19th and 20th looks promising too, with the 19th showing a 4ft SSE swell in the morning, building to 5ft in the afternoon, with light offshore winds. Expect very good conditions.

So, if you’re patient, skip the first week and aim for the 15th through the 20th. The standouts are definitely the afternoon of the 15th and the glassy morning of the 16th. Clean, chest-high waves with light winds. Surf’s up, just gotta wait.

Rusty.

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