Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, it's Rusty, and I'm calling it like I see it. We've got a long dry spell to start, but the back half of the forecast is where the magic happens. The main break in the spotlight is Jailbreaks (reef), and it's a waiting game.

From Thursday the 9th through Sunday the 12th, don't even bother. The swell is running 3ft to 4ft from the SSW, but the wind is all cross-shore and messy. The combined energy is weak, reading 250 to 616, and the conditions are poor. It's a no-go.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are still marginal. You'll see 4ft to 4ft of S swell on Monday with an 11-second period, and the wind goes cross-offshore, cleaning it up a bit. The combined energy hits 685, which is moderate. Tuesday morning has a 16-second SSW groundswell, but it's only 3ft—a tease. The water temp is about 84°F, which is normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the 15th is the real deal. The morning delivers 3ft of SW groundswell at a 16-second period, with a cross-offshore breeze from the west at 9 mph, making it glassy. The combined energy is 618, moderate, and the wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." The afternoon is even cleaner with winds dropping to 6 mph. This is the day to circle.

Thursday the 16th morning is another gem—3ft of SW swell at 14 seconds, with a 3 mph cross-offshore breeze from the WSW. The combined energy is 531, and it's clean as a whistle. The afternoon gets a little bumpy, but the morning is perfect.

Friday the 17th keeps it going with 3ft of SSW swell at 15 seconds in the morning, cross-offshore wind, and clean conditions. The combined energy is 523. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are also solid—3ft to 4ft of SSE swell with offshore winds from the SW. The period drops to 8-9 seconds, which is shorter, but the offshore breeze keeps it tidy. The combined energy is weak, around 238 to 313, but it's surfable.

From Monday the 20th to Wednesday the 22nd, the swell builds to 5ft to 5ft from the SSE, but the period is only 10 seconds. The wind is cross-offshore, and the combined energy is moderate, ranging 419 to 686. The wave comment says "marginal," so it's not the best.

Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are the other standouts. Expect 5ft of SSE swell at 10 seconds, with light to gentle offshore winds. The combined energy is 510 to 565, and the conditions are "expect very good surf conditions." Thursday afternoon and Friday morning are the picks.

Jailbreaks is a reef, so those long-period swells on Wednesday and Thursday the 15th and 16th will shape up nicely. The 5ft to 5ft swells later on are a bit big for beginners, but for an advanced surfer, it's a blast. The crowd can show up sometimes, so get in the water early.

Bottom line: the first week is a bust, but from Wednesday the 15th on, it's worth the wait. The absolute best is Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th mornings, with Friday the 17th close behind. The second week has Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th as good options, but those are a ways out, so stay tuned.

Rusty.

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