Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the next week or so is gonna be a bit of a grind. There’s surf on the table, but it’s looking pretty marginal with a lot of onshore and cross-off wind mucking things up. The real standout, the one worth waiting for, is a fantastic window of clean conditions and long-period groundswell that builds in the second week.

Right now, through the first few days, the wind is a constant problem. We’ve got a moderate breeze (25 km/h) from the west and west-southwest pretty much every day, keeping the surface a bit bumpy. The swell is hanging around the 3ft to 5ft mark, mostly from the SSE and S, but the periods are all over the place. On Thursday the 7th through Saturday the 9th, we’re looking at 5ft to 5ft of swell, but the period is short (10-11 seconds) and the wind is cross-off, so it’s not going to have much punch. The combined wave energy in that period is moderate (around 650-760), but it’s just not clean enough to get excited about.

The real light at the end of the tunnel starts to show up on Monday the 10th. The morning brings a 2ft swell from the S, but with a very long period of 21 seconds and a gentle breeze (15 km/h) from the west-southwest, it’s a sign of better things to come. The energy is still moderate (808), but that long period suggests some proper groundswell is on the way.

Now, let’s talk about the highlight. You want to circle the weekend of the 17th and 18th of August. Jailbreaks is a reef break that is fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the south swell. This is the window. On Monday the 17th, the afternoon sees a solid 2ft SSW groundswell running at 20 seconds, with a light offshore wind (10 km/h) from the SSE. That’s a recipe for beautifully clean, lined-up waves. The morning of Tuesday the 18th is even better: 3ft of S swell at 18 seconds, with a light offshore wind from the south, making for glassy conditions. And then Tuesday afternoon – forget about it. Calm winds, glassy sea, 3ft of S swell at 18 seconds. The water temp is around 85°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy climbs to 697 on Tuesday, and then on Wednesday the 19th, it jumps to 1111 (strong wave energy) with 4ft of S swell at 16 seconds and clean offshore winds. That Wednesday morning is the peak for experienced surfers – the power is there, the shape will be there, and the crowds at Jailbreaks can be an issue sometimes, but with that quality, it’ll be worth it. This is a very long-period groundswell, so it’s going to be best at a reef like this one, giving you proper, powerful waves.

After that, conditions hold up nicely through the 20th with clean cross-off winds and 3ft to 4ft waves, but the energy drops back to moderate. So, the true standout is that Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty, signing off.

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