Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of swell heading our way for Jailbreaks, and it’s shaping up to be a cracker of a fortnight for those who are keen on a proper paddle.

The pattern is set from the get-go: a long-period, deep south groundswell that’s got some serious grunt behind it. We’re kicking off on Tuesday, August 18th, with a solid 6 ft to 7 ft SSW swell rolling in. The period is a deep 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, folks. The water is sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The real winner here is the wind: a light 6 mph westerly, which is a clean cross-off breeze. The combined energy is a massive 2355, which tells you there’s plenty of power in the water. This is excellent surf, but at 6 ft, it’s pushing into the "too big for beginners" territory. With that long period, Jailbreaks is going to be lining up nicely, but it’ll be a proper handful. The best session of this opening push is Tuesday morning – the energy is at its peak, the wind is light, and it’s clean as a whistle.

Wednesday, August 19th, backs it up with another 5 ft to 5 ft SSW swell, period still holding at 16 seconds. The wind picks up a little to 9 mph, but it’s still cross-off, so it stays clean. The energy drops to 1837, still a very solid moderate level. The quality is excellent for experienced surfers. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind is up to 12 mph, and while it’s still clean, the swell drops to 4 ft, and the scores reflect a more marginal situation.

We see a significant drop-off from Thursday, August 20th, through the weekend. The swell backs right off to under 3 ft, the period drops, and the combined energy falls into the low hundreds. The wind stays cross-off, so the surf will be clean, but it’s small and weak. This is a gap of several days where the surf is marginal at best. You’ll have to be patient.

The real standout, the one I’m getting excited about, is the return of the big stuff later in the month. Starting around Saturday, August 29th, we get a new pulse of SSW swell. It’s solid 4 ft on Saturday morning, with a 16-second period and a light 6 mph cross-off breeze. The energy jumps back up to 1328. That’s a strong, powerful wave. It’s excellent for experienced surfers.

This swell builds into Sunday, August 30th, which is the absolute highlight of the entire outlook. We’re looking at 5 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period on Sunday morning, and a 9 mph cross-off wind. The combined energy is a massive 1477. That’s a serious amount of water moving. The quality is rated as excellent. This is a day for the experts only – at 5 ft with that long period, it’s going to be a heavy, powerful wave at Jailbreaks. The sets will be widely spaced, but the ones that come through will be absolute bombs. This is as good as it gets.

The swell starts to ease slightly into Monday, August 31st, with 7 ft swell, but the period drops to 14 seconds, and the wind picks up to 12 mph. The energy is still high at 1636, but the conditions are a bit more challenging. The long-range, early September stuff looks promising, with another solid S swell arriving on September 2nd, but that’s a few weeks out, so it’s less certain. For now, circle August 30th – that’s the one to clear your calendar for.

Rusty.

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