Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the only spot on the cards for the next couple of weeks, Jailbreaks. It's a reef setup, so we're dealing with a fairly consistent wave that needs the right conditions to really fire.

Over the next sixteen days, there's surf on offer from the start, but it's going to take a while to get anything truly good. The first week is pretty ordinary, with a lot of marginal to poor conditions. The energy is weak to moderate initially, with readings like 327 (moderate wave energy) kicking things off, but the winds are mostly cross or cross-off from the west at 15 mph, which isn't doing the shape any favours. The swell direction is mostly from the SSE or SSW, running a bit against the optimum southerly direction this spot prefers. Expect small waves around 2 ft to 4 ft, but with short to medium periods (9 to 17 seconds), so nothing with real grunt.

Things start to look more interesting heading into the second week. The standout period looks to be from the 14th of July through to the 19th of July. On the morning of the 14th, the energy jumps to 617 (strong wave energy) with a 4 ft swell from the SSW at a solid 16-second period – that's proper groundswell, which on a reef like this will set up some nice lines, especially with clean conditions and a gentle cross-off breeze. The 15th looks solid too, with 3 ft SW swell and 15 to 16-second intervals. But the real gem might be the 16th of July: the morning sees glassy conditions, with a 3 ft SW swell at 14 seconds. That's about as perfect as it gets for a reef break – clean, lined-up waves with light wind.

The 18th and 19th of July also look excellent. On the 19th, you've got 3 ft SSW swell, a 15-second period, and light offshore winds from the southwest at 6 mph. The energy is strong at 504, and the conditions are set to be very good. This could be the pick of the whole run. Remember, this is an advanced-level reef break; when it's on, it's on, but it's not a beginner's wave. Crowds can be an issue here sometimes, so early morning paddles will be your best bet to get a few waves to yourself.

The water temperature is warm at 84°F, which is about average for this time of year, so you won't need any rubber.

So, for the best on offer, I'm calling out the morning of the 16th for that glassy, long-period SW swell, and the morning of the 19th for the consistent, clean, offshore conditions. The early part of the run is mostly a write-off, but the second week has some real promise.

Rusty.

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