Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at the next few weeks for this stretch of coast.

Straight up, the next few days are a bit of a flat spell. We’ve got swell running 3 to 5 feet, but it’s coming from the SSE with a short period of 10-11 seconds, and the combined swell energy (473 to 529) is weak to moderate. Thursday morning is clean, but the wave quality is just poor. The wind is cross-off from the WSW, which helps the surface, but it’s not enough to make it worthwhile. To be honest, the first week is a write-off for a good surf – lots of marginal conditions and poor surf calls through to Sunday the 16th. There’s a solid gap of poor to average days here.

The standout window kicks off on Monday, August 17th. This is where things get interesting. Monday morning sees a jump in swell to 4 feet from the SSW, but the real story is the period – a huge 21 seconds! That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 819, and the afternoon cranks it up further with 4-foot SSW swell and an even bigger energy reading of 1754. The wind is a light, cross-off breeze, so it’ll be clean. This is a session for experienced surfers – the 4 feet is manageable, but the long period will mean long lulls and some powerful, fast lines. Jailbreaks (reef) is the spot. This break is exposed to the S swell, and the optimum direction is S, so the SSW will wrap in nicely. It’s a fairly consistent reef break, and with winds staying light cross-off from the W, the surface should be clean. It’s an advanced wave, so don’t be fooled by the height. Crowds are possible here, especially on a Monday morning when it shows.

Tuesday the 18th follows up with the biggest swell of the run – 7 feet from the SSW with a period of 18 seconds. The combined energy is massive at 2519. That’s too big for beginners; this is expert territory only. The wind is light and cross-off from the W, so the morning will be clean. Again, this is a powerful, long-period reef wave.

After that, the swell backs off a touch but holds a healthy 3 to 4 feet from the S and SSW through the rest of the week (20th-21st) with periods still in the 15-16 second range. Conditions remain clean with cross-off winds. There’s good energy in the water (802 to 1007).

The gap after that is short – by Monday the 24th, we’re back to smaller 2-foot swells. But hold on, Thursday, August 28th, is the next real highlight. The morning shows 5 feet from the SSW with a period of 18 seconds and a combined energy of 1459, building to 5 feet in the afternoon with 2004 energy. The wind is consistently light offshore from the SSW – that’s a major positive. That’s glassy, clean, lined-up surf at Jailbreaks. The 5 feet is still a solid wave for advanced surfers, but the conditions will be exceptional. This is the one you want to pencil in, though it’s well over a week away, so keep an eye on it.

One more thing – the water temp early on is 84°F with an anomaly of +0.7°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing to worry about there.

Rusty, signing off.

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