Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’m sizing up the next 16 days. The forecast starts this Monday, the 7th of September, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got swell, but the wind is going to be a problem for a lot of it. The one real standout is a long-range call that looks like it could fire, but you’ve got to be patient.

We kick off Monday morning at Jailbreaks with a clean 3ft swell from the SSE, period at 10 seconds, and a light offshore breeze. The water temp is about average for the season. The combined energy is moderate (340). It’s a fun, surfable wave. By Monday afternoon, the wind shifts cross-offshore, and the swell holds. Tuesday sees a bit more size, hitting 4ft by Tuesday afternoon with a 9-second period, and the energy jumps to 498. Still clean, still a good wave for a log or a funboard.

Wednesday the 9th starts to get messy. The morning swell is 4ft (SE, 9 sec), energy moderate (646), but the wind is cross-offshore. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind turns cross-shore, and the swell drops to 2ft with a very long 17-second period from the SSW. That’s a groundswell, and at a reef break, that long period can make the waves a bit too straight and the sets far apart. The energy is high (674), but the wind is a moderate cross-shore with a chop, so it’s not clean.

From Thursday the 10th through to the 13th, we’re in a rough patch. The wind is cross-shore from the WNW at 12-16 mph. The swell is mostly from the SSW, with periods from 15 to 19 seconds. The energy is strong, hitting 2581 on Friday afternoon, but with that cross-shore wind, the surface is chopped up. The 5ft swell on Friday afternoon is too big for beginners, and the wind makes it a mess. It’s looking more like a kite surfing day than a paddle surfing session.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th gets a little better. The wind backs off to cross-offshore, and the swell stays around 4ft to 5ft, with periods around 15-17 seconds. The energy is still high (1419 on Saturday afternoon), and the wave face cleans up. It’s a solid session for a reef break, but not a classic. Crowds are “sometimes,” so you might have company.

Now, the one to circle: Friday the 18th of September. The morning shows a 4ft groundswell from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the energy is strong (1694). The wind is a clean cross-offshore. By Friday afternoon, the swell builds to 6ft from the S at 12 seconds, and the energy jumps to 1797. That’s the standout. The size is into the intermediate-to-advanced zone, but with offshore winds, Jailbreaks should be running clean and hollow. It’s a week and a half away, so it’s a promising call, not a guarantee.

The following weekend, the 19th and 20th, the swell drops to 5ft-5ft, but the wind picks up to 16-19 mph from the WSW. It’s still cross-offshore, but the fresh breeze will put a bit of texture on the face. The period drops to 10-11 seconds, so it’s less powerful. The energy is moderate (753-915). Not a write-off.

We finish on Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd with a clean 3ft to 4ft groundswell from the S and SSW, with very long periods of 18-20 seconds. The energy is strong (1190-1350), but the wind is a fresh breeze from the W at 19 mph. The long period means big, powerful waves with long lulls, which is great for paddling out, but the wind will be the deciding factor.

So, the call is Friday the 18th of September. That afternoon with 6ft S swell at 12 seconds and offshore winds is the one to watch. The rest of the period is a grind, with a few clean windows and a lot of cross-shore chop.

Rusty.

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