Jailbreaks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Overall, the pattern is a bit of a slow burner. The first week and a half have some consistent, rideable waves, but nothing that’s going to blow your mind. The real standout, the one you’ll want to circle on the calendar, is that big pulse of energy around the 18th of August. That’s the one to get excited about.

We’ll kick things off on Friday the 7th of August. The swell is coming in at a modest 5ft from the south with an 11-second period, which is a solid groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (678). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the WSW at 12 mph, which will keep the surface clean. The water temperature is sitting at 85°, which is about average for this time of year. It’s a bit of a slow start, but it’s there.

This pattern of 5ft to 5ft south/south-southeast swell with cross-off winds continues right through the weekend and into the start of the following week. The energy stays moderate, hanging around the 500 to 700 range. On Monday the 10th, the morning session looks the pick of the early days with a “very good” surf condition call. The swell drops right off Monday afternoon to just 3ft, but the period jumps to 20 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell, which will be fat and slow, better suited for a point or reef than a beach break. On Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re back to the 4ft to 5ft range with 10 to 11-second periods, still clean, but nothing special.

As we head into the second week, the swell ticks up slightly. Thursday the 13th sees 5ft, but the wind turns more cross-shore in the afternoon, putting a bit of a chop on the surface. Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th is more of the same: 4ft to 5ft, clean, but marginal.

The standout. Mark your calendar for Tuesday the 18th of August. The swell jumps to 6ft in the morning, building to 6ft in the afternoon. This is a proper SSW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. The combined energy rockets up to 2070 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind drops right back to a light breeze at just 6 mph from the WSW, staying cross-offshore. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. It’s big enough to clean out the crowds, but the period is so long it might pitch a bit too straight at the beach, so keep your wits about you. Wednesday the 19th holds excellent quality with 4ft and a 16-second period, energy still very strong at 1430, with light offshore winds. Thursday the 20th is also excellent, with 4ft to 5ft, 16 to 18-second period, and energy in the 1500-1700 range.

Later in the run, Friday the 21st of August offers a nice change: the wind shifts to a true offshore from the SSW at 9 mph, with a 4ft, 15-second south swell. It’s smaller, but it’ll be clean and lined up. The energy is still moderate (845). Saturday the 22nd fades out with 3ft to 3ft, still clean.

If you can only get one session in, make it the 18th of August. That’s the one. The big long-period groundswell with light winds is a special combo.

Rusty.

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