Arrawarra Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with it: the next week or so is a real mixed bag for Arrawarra, and if you’re a paddler, you’ll be waiting a fair while for something decent. The first week is mostly a write-off, with small, weak swell and poor wind. Then, around Thursday the 10th of September, things start to get interesting, but you’ll need to be an experienced hand. The real standout shapes up on Friday the 11th and into Saturday the 12th, but that big swell will only suit the brave.

Alright, for the first few days: from Tuesday the 1st through to Sunday the 6th, it’s pretty grim. Swell heights are tiny—mostly 1 ft to 2 ft—with combined energy in the low double-digits and triple-digits (like 207, 112, 81), so weak energy. The wind is a problem, too—onshore or cross-onshore most of the time. The only whiff of clean conditions is on Friday the 4th morning, when we get a clean look with cross-offshore wind from the SE, but it’s still only 2 ft of messy, short-period swell. Not worth getting wet for. Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th bring a little more energy, with combined swell up to 595 on Tuesday afternoon, but that 7 ft swell from the NNE is a short 7-second period, and the wind is blowing hard onshore at 19 mph. It’s a mess. If you’re a kite surfer, that Tuesday arvo might look fun, but for a paddle surfer, leave it.

Then things ramp up. Wednesday the 9th afternoon sees a shift: a fresh offshore wind from the south at 19 mph, clean conditions, and a 4 ft SSE swell at 9 seconds. Combined energy is 231—moderate—but it’s only a marginal call. Not the best, but it’s a sign.

Now, the standout. Thursday the 10th morning: we get a strong offshore from the SSW at 25 mph, which is clean but hard to paddle into. The swell jumps to 12 ft from the south at 11 seconds—that’s a solid, moderate-to-long period groundswell. Combined energy is huge at 4513. This is expert territory only; over 8 ft, it’s too big for beginners. A point break like Arrawarra can handle it, but that 25 mph wind will make it a battle to get out the back.

But the real magic is Friday the 11th. Morning: 18 ft of south swell, with a very long period of 15 seconds. Combined energy is a monstrous 21101. Yes, it’s big—18 ft is well over the 8 ft mark, so experts only. But the wind is a fresh offshore from the south at 19 mph, clean as a whistle. This is a point break, and that long-period groundswell will wrap in beautifully, offering proper, powerful lines. Afternoon holds at 12 ft SSE with 14 seconds and the same clean offshore wind. This is the best on offer. No question. The swell direction (S/SSE) is a touch south of the optimum E swell direction, but with that power and wind, it’s going to be firing. Crowds are “often” at Arrawarra, so expect plenty of company.

Saturday the 12th morning still has good size: 8 ft from the south at 10 seconds, with a moderate offshore wind at 16 mph. Combined energy 1814. It’s a touch smaller and a bit shorter in period, but still excellent for advanced surfers. Afternoon drops to 6 ft SSE with a clean cross-offshore breeze. From Sunday the 13th onward, the swell fades and the wind turns onshore again, so Saturday is your last best day.

Water temp is 68°F for the first record, which is about 0.5°F cooler than average for this time of year—nothing wild, pretty standard for early September.

So, bottom line: sit out the first week. Then, from Thursday the 10th to Saturday the 12th, Arrawarra will have the size and the wind for a proper session, but only for the experienced. Friday the 11th is the day to circle.

Rusty.

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