Arawhata Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Right, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Arawhata. Straight up, this is a rocky outlook for a place that usually has some spark, but this 16-day window is a real mixed bag, with a lot of wind and swell that’s just too messy for a clean ride. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The only real window that gets my blood pumping is the early morning of Monday the 7th. Arawhata’s a reef break, fairly consistent, and it loves a solid SW groundswell. We’ve got a 10ft swell rolling in from the WSW, with a long 15-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is a light 3 mph from the SSW, which is cross-on but so light it’s nearly glassy, keeping things clean. The combined energy is pumping hard at 3360 (moderate to strong), so there’s plenty of push. This is the standout for the whole run, but even then, the forecast is marginal for tide, so you’ll need to pick your moment. Beginners might find 10ft a bit much, but for intermediates, this is the one.

Before that, Thursday morning the 3rd has some potential. We’re looking at 7ft swell from the WSW, a 14-second period, and a cross-off NW wind at 16 mph. The combined energy is 1537 (moderate). It’s clean, but it’s described as marginal surf, so don’t expect perfection. Afternoon swings to a rain shower and a 19 mph NNW wind, still cross-off, but the swell drops to 6ft. It’s okay, but not a standout.

Then we hit a real rough patch. From Friday the 4th right through to the end of Sunday the 6th, it’s a write-off. The swell is huge – 12ft to 10ft – but the wind is screaming. Friday morning has a 28 mph NW cross-wind, and the swell is a short, messy 8-second period with a combined energy of 3208 (strong). The conditions are “poor” with a strong cross-shore and cross-chop. Saturday and Sunday are worse, with onshore winds and lumpy, choppy seas. The combined energy hits over 4500 at times, but it’s not surfable. This is a gap of three days with no real recommendations.

After the Monday morning window, the wind turns nasty again. Monday afternoon through to the end of the forecast is a string of fresh to strong onshore winds, cross-on conditions, and lumpy, blown-out surf. Tuesday the 8th has 6ft to 6ft but with a fresh cross-onshore, it’s just messy. Wednesday the 9th has a drop to 3ft but with a cross-on breeze, it’s not worth paddling out for.

There’s a massive swell predicted for Friday the 11th – 18ft from the WSW with a 19-second period and a combined energy of 19932, which is very strong. But the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-on, and the forecast says it’s too big for this break. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, the wind is going to make it a washing machine. For the rest of the second week, it’s a mix of onshore wind and large, unfriendly swell. The only other flicker of hope is Tuesday morning the 15th, with a 8ft swell and a cross-off NNW wind at 28 mph, but the period is a short 8 seconds, and it’s only scoring marginal. Not a great prospect.

Truth is, for a reef that loves a clean SW groundswell, the wind is the enemy here. The consistent onshore flow just kills the quality. If you’re desperate, the Monday morning of the 7th is your best bet – that’s the one to aim for. Otherwise, it’s a lot of waiting for conditions to line up. The setup might even look more interesting for kite surfing on those big, windy days, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a tough run. Forecasts can change though, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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