Arawhata Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for us.

We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead at Arawhata (New Zealand). The water temp is sitting at about 59°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. The first real chance to get wet is Tuesday morning, July 7th.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, is where we start. We’ve got some solid 7ft swell rolling in from the WSW, with a long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is reading a hefty 2123 (moderate to strong). The wind is a light ESE breeze at 6 mph, which is a nice cross-offshore. That’ll keep the reef clean. This is great for experienced surfers – the wave quality is there, but that size might be a bit much for beginners. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but crowds are sometimes around, so you might have some company.

After that, things get messy. The afternoon of the 7th gets a 16 mph crosswind, and it’s pretty much downhill from there. Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th are a write-off with gale-force winds and massive, choppy surf – 18ft and 43 mph winds on Thursday morning. That’s more for kite surfing than a paddle session.

Friday the 10th stays poor with strong cross-shore winds, but the swell drops.

We get a little relief on Saturday the 11th, but it’s only marginal with a cross-shore breeze.

Now, mark your calendar for Sunday morning, July 12th. This is a standout. We’ve got 5ft of clean WSW groundswell with a period of 16 seconds (very long), and the wind is glassy – 3 mph from the NE. The combined energy is 1040 (moderate). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and I’d agree. The long period means the reef at Arawhata will really focus that energy into some nice lines. It’s clean, it’s glassy, and this is probably the best on offer in the first week.

Sunday afternoon stays good with 5ft and glassy conditions again.

Monday the 13th drops off with smaller swell and a fresh cross-offshore breeze – not great.

Tuesday the 14th is marginal with a short 8-second period swell and moderate winds.

Wednesday the 15th sees a big jump again to 13ft from the WSW, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. The energy is huge (5950), but the quality is poor.

Now, the next real standout is Thursday morning, July 16th. This is another one to get excited about. We’ve got 12ft of W swell with a 14-second period, and an offshore wind from the NNE at 16 mph. The combined energy is 4847 (strong to very strong). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and with that size and offshore wind, this is for the big-wave crew only. It’s going to be powerful and clean on the reef. This is one of the best windows, but it’s more than a week out, so keep an eye on it.

Friday the 17th stays big but gets messy again with a strong cross-shore.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are poor with strong winds and lumpy conditions.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st show some promise with 7ft and 5ft WSW swells and cleaner winds, but nothing that really screams “go now.”

Wednesday the 22nd finishes the outlook with a short-period 6ft swell and a cross-offshore breeze – marginal.

Overall, you have two true standouts: Sunday morning, July 12th, for the cleaner, glassy conditions on a solid 5ft swell, and Thursday morning, July 16th, for a serious, powerful 12ft wave with offshore wind. The rest of the period has a lot of wind-affected or messy surf. There’s a big gap of poor conditions from Wednesday the 8th through Saturday the 11th, so don’t bother paddling out then.

Rusty.

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