Point Annihilation Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. We’ve only got one spot in the frame, Point Annihilation, a reef and point break, so we’re focusing all our attention there. The water is sitting at a nippy 54°F, a solid 3°F colder than what we’d expect this time of year, so it’s definitely a bit colder than normal – get the thick rubber on.

To be honest, the start of this forecast is pretty flat. From Tuesday the 11th right through to the end of the first week, it’s nothing to write home about. We’ve got a bit of small, weak swell bumping around, but the wind is all over the place and mostly onshore. There’s no reason to paddle out until we see a real change.

That change finally arrives on Saturday the 15th. The morning kicks off with clean 5ft easterly swell under glassy conditions. The combined wave energy is a decent 321 (moderate), and the wind is dead calm. The afternoon stays clean with 6ft easterly swell and that energy bumping up to 398. This is the pick of the opening week, but it’s not a huge standout.

Things go seriously wild from Sunday the 16th. A big, raw southerly swell arrives, pushing 12ft on Sunday morning and climbing to a massive 16ft by Monday. The combined energy values are astronomical, hitting 6336 on Monday morning. But here’s the kicker – a near gale-force SSW wind is hammering the coast. This is 31 mph onshore wind tearing up those waves. It’s a brutal, dangerous mess. This kind of size (over 8ft) is for experts only, and with that wind, it’s more of a windsurfing or kitesurfing conditions than a paddle session.

The wind and swell stay ugly for most of the second week with constant onshores, big south swell, and poor surf quality. We get a tiny break on Saturday the 22nd where the swell drops to 5ft, but a cross-shore wind keeps it average.

Now, here’s the real standout to get excited about. Look to Wednesday the 26th. After a long, ugly run, we get a treat. The afternoon brings a clean 3ft swell from the south, but check this out – an 18-second period. That’s a proper, long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 1109 (strong), and we have a gentle offshore wind from the northeast. For a reef and point break like this, that’s a dream. That long period will wrap around perfectly, giving long, lined-up walls. It’s a long way out, so there’s less certainty, but if it comes together, the 26th afternoon is the session to circle on the calendar.

So, to sum it up: the early part of the run is a write-off. Saturday the 15th gives you a small, clean window. The middle of the month is a big, blown-out mess. But keep your eyes peeled for Wednesday the 26th afternoon – that could be a magic one.

Rusty.

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