
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 11s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 10s period, S swell with 1,184 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 3 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what’s on the table for Last Chance.
The first half of the period is a bit of a mixed bag, with some good early potential that gets interrupted by a stretch of messy, blown-out conditions. The second week brings a return of clean but stronger, short-period swell, and the very end of the outlook looks flat and lackluster. The real standout is a very specific window on the first morning.
Your best bet, and the only real true standout here, is Friday morning, July 3rd at Last Chance. It’s a point break, exposed to the swell, and early in the day you’ve got glassy conditions with a light breeze from the WNW. The water temperature is 56°, which feels a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good suit. The swell is a solid 5ft from the east with a nice, long period of 12 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, packing good energy into the point. The combined swell energy is a moderate 783. For a premium spot like this, glassy conditions with a decent east swell is the time to go, and the crowd situation is only *sometimes* an issue. This is the session to circle. The afternoon turns cross-on, so that clean morning window is key.
Saturday the 4th starts cross-shore and clean-looking, but the wind quickly gets on it and it turns choppy later in the day. Not terrible, but a step down from Friday morning.
Sunday the 5th morning shows a 7ft swell with a short period of just 7 seconds, and a cross-offshore wind keeping it clean. That short period means it’ll be a bit bumpy and less powerful, a little more tricky for the point. The afternoon dies down.
From Monday the 6th right through to Wednesday the 8th, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore with rain or clouds. Swell sizes vary a bit, up to 7ft, but with fresh winds and choppy conditions, the quality is poor. It’s a bit of a write-off for a clean wave.
Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th clean up with cross-offshore winds, but the wind is strong (22-28 mph) from the south and southwest, while the swell is a short period 8-10 seconds. The energy readings are actually high, between 920 and 1361, but it’s a lumpy, powerful, and windy setup. For a break like this, that’s looking more like a kite-surfing day than a pleasant paddle session for most.
Saturday morning, July 11th is your second standout window. It’s not as good as the first Friday, but it’s the best of the rest. You’ve got a moderate offshore breeze from the WSW cleaning up a 7ft south swell. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, not smooth groundswell. But offshore wind at a point break is always worth paying attention to. The combined energy is moderate at 806. This will be a fun, choppier but ripable session for experienced surfers. That 7ft is getting into expert-only territory.
The rest of that second week, from the 12th to the 15th, is all cross-offshore winds with fluctuating short-period swell between 5ft and 7ft. The energy stays high, over 1000 on several days, but the short period and varying winds keep it from being truly classic. The 15th sees a jump in period to a very long 13 seconds on the afternoon, combined with a 5ft swell from the southeast (1096 energy). That long period could set up well on the point, but the cross-shore wind (12 mph) will put some chop on it.
From the morning of Thursday the 16th onward, the forecast dries up. Swell drops below 3ft, winds are onshore or strong, and the conditions are rated poor. The last few days of the outlook are quiet and not worth getting excited about. That’s the run.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SSW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | ENE 10 | NNE 7 | E 10 | E 10 | ENE 10 | NE 8 | ENE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 10 | S 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
689 | 689 | 646 | 594 | 459 | 540 | 384 | 242 | 239 | 455 | 589 | 300 | 352 | 347 | 716 | 973 | 1040 | 650 | 627 | 557 | 1146 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:17PM1.58m | 8:43AM1.46m | 9:00PM1.57m | 9:24AM1.48m | 9:44PM1.57m | 10:05AM1.50m | 10:30PM1.58m | 10:48AM1.53m | 11:16PM1.60m | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:58PM0.39m | 2:37AM0.35m | 2:42PM0.37m | 3:19AM0.32m | 3:27PM0.35m | 4:02AM0.31m | 4:14PM0.35m | 4:46AM0.31m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:32AM0.31m | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | ||||||||
7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | 4:57 | — | — | 4:57 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 24 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | S 12 | ENE 8 | E 10 | E 10 | S 14 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 |
689 | 689 | 646 | 594 | 459 | 3 | 276 | 242 | 239 | 4 | 291 | 300 | 352 | 347 | 716 | 973 | 1040 | 650 | 627 | 520 | 520 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | SSE 8 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | SW 12 | E 10 | NE 6 | S 15 | S 22 | E 10 | S 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 12 | NE 8 | S 17 | S 19 |
81 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 204 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 73 | 74 | 220 | 319 | 338 | 181 | 61 | 75 | 58 | 50 | 113 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | S 16 | SSW 15 | N 11 | NE 11 | — | S 12 | S 17 | NE 10 | S 22 | S 20 | S 18 | NE 10 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 16 | S 21 | SSW 15 |
13 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 4 | — | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 106 | 44 | 47 | 78 | 102 | 89 | 90 | 53 | 36 | 21 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NNE 5 | ENE 10 | NNE 7 | — | NNE 6 | ENE 10 | NE 8 | NNW 2 | — | SW 3 | — | — | — | S 6 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 |
— | — | — | — | 37 | 540 | 384 | — | 28 | 455 | 589 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | 184 | 235 | 557 | 1146 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 102 | 88 | 137 | 158 | 102 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










