Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 18 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.3° C
1.5° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 6,504 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.0m and 11s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 14s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 11s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 11s
Most Powerful 3AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get into what’s on offer at Last Chance, because the next couple of weeks have a real Jekyll and Hyde feel to them.

The window kicks off on Tuesday, 18th August, but I’d be sitting this one out. We’ve got a solid 13ft swell from the S, but the wind is howling out of the SW at 31 mph, making for some pretty grim conditions. It’s a big, raw ocean out there with combined wave energy of 2846 – a lot of juice – but it’s not surfable for us. The water is sitting at 54°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thickest rubber you’ve got.

Wednesday the 19th is the real standout, and the only one worth circling on the calendar. Early morning, we’ve got a powerful 15ft swell from the SSE with a solid 11-second period, driving combined energy up to 4741. The wind is S at 25 mph, cross-off, and the call is that wind and tide will line up. This is heavy, advanced territory – over 8ft is for experts only. If you’ve got the skills and the board for it, this is the moment.

Wednesday afternoon drops to 12ft from the S, but the wind is a bit lighter and the conditions are more marginal. Thursday the 20th sees the swell drop to 6ft, then 6ft, with a short 8-second period and moderate cross-off breezes. It’s on the small side and the quality just isn’t there.

Now, Friday the 21st morning is where it gets interesting again. The swell is down to 5ft from the S, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. This is pure groundswell. The wind is a glassy 3 mph from the NNW, absolutely dead. For an advanced spot like this, that long period will groom the lines beautifully, but be aware that such a long period can make beach breaks straighten out – at a point break like Last Chance, it should be a dream. The combined energy is 1503, still solid. This is the other high point in the window.

From Saturday the 22nd into the following week, it’s a slow slide. The swell drops right off, with Saturday morning seeing 3ft, and by Sunday the 23rd we’re down to 2ft and 1.0ft. The energy falls away into double digits (115 and 66), and it’s just a flat spell. There’s a gap of several days with very little to recommend.

Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th mornings offer a little pulse back up to 3ft, with the 25th showing a very long 16-second period from the S again and light NW winds. Combined energy at 523, and the call is for very good conditions. It’s a smaller window, but for a patient surfer on a log or a mid-length, it could be a clean, fun session.

The rest of the run into late August and early September is mostly poor. Winds pick up, the swell stays small and inconsistent. The 1st of September even sees a strong breeze hit 28 mph, but the swell is only 5ft. It’s a write-off. The 2nd of September afternoon shows a little promise with a 5ft S swell and a gentle breeze, but it’s a long way out and not a guarantee.

So, bottom line: the absolute best on offer is Wednesday morning, 19th August, for the big-swell crew on the 15ft SSE groundswell. The second-best is Friday morning, 21st August, for the clean, long-period 5ft waves. Don’t get your hopes up for the rest of it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the NW by Thu night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Mainly fresh winds.

Tue
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
!
3
3
2
2
3
4
2
3
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
S
10
5
S
12
4.5
SSE
11
3.5
S
11
2.4
S
14
1.9
S
8
1.8
S
8
1.5
S
8
1.6
S
16
1.5
S
15
1.2
S
13
1
S
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
11
0.6
SSE
10
0.4
SSE
10
0.3
ESE
12
1
S
9
1
S
14
0.9
S
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2808
6662
4674
2718
2346
466
450
317
1289
1051
490
289
217
156
80
33
31
166
388
182
Wind (km/h)
50
SW
50
SSW
40
S
30
SSW
20
SW
25
SW
20
SW
5
WSW
5
NNW
10
ENE
15
NW
15
NW
10
WNW
20
NW
20
NW
15
WNW
35
W
5
NW
15
NE
10
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
10:10PM1.71m
10:33AM1.72m
10:59PM1.67m
11:22AM1.67m
11:48PM1.62m
12:14PM1.62m
00:35AM1.57m
1:06PM1.58m
1:22AM1.51m
1:56PM1.54m
2:10AM1.45m
2:43PM1.52m
2:58AM1.40m
Low Tide
4:01PM0.28m
4:27AM0.30m
4:51PM0.34m
5:15AM0.36m
5:41PM0.40m
6:03AM0.41m
6:30PM0.44m
6:49AM0.45m
7:20PM0.47m
7:35AM0.46m
8:10PM0.48m
8:23AM0.46m
8:57PM0.47m
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:46
6:45
6:43
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:32
5:34
5:35
5:36
5:36
5:37
5:37
 mm
1
7
2
1
Temp °C
9
8
10
9
10
11
11
10
13
13
12
16
17
14
18
19
13
14
15
13
Feels °C
-2
-4
2
1
3
6
6
8
11
10
8
13
14
9
14
15
6
11
11
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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