Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.8° C
1.1° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with 7,865 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 13s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 6AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 12s
Best Surf 3PM (Tue 4th Aug)15ft (4.5m) 13s
Most Powerful 6PM (Tue 4th Aug)15ft (4.5m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, let’s break it down.

We’ve only got one spot to talk about for the next 16 days – Last Chance. It’s a point break, open to the swell, and it breaks fairly regularly. The water temp is 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thicker wetsuit.

The first real window comes on Sunday, August 2nd. An offshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph is going to make an 8 ft SSE groundswell (12-second period) look clean. The combined energy is strong at 1784. This is the best session of the whole forecast – glassy, powerful, and proper. It’s expert territory at that size.

Monday the 3rd is still decent with a 5 ft SSE swell and offshore winds again in the morning, but the energy is down to 595. Still clean, just not as much juice.

Tuesday the 4th gets wild – a 15 ft S swell (13 seconds) in the afternoon, but the wind is howling at 28 mph cross-off. Energy is extreme at 7358, and it’s just too big for this spot. That’s for the hardcore only.

The next good window is Thursday morning, August 6th. A 7 ft SSE swell, 11-second period, light offshore wind from the WSW at 9 mph. Energy is 1189, and it’s clean. Another solid session for experienced surfers.

Friday the 7th morning is a glassy dream – no wind, 4 ft SE swell. Energy is 518. It’s small, but if you want perfectly smooth waves, that’s your time.

From Saturday the 8th through Monday the 10th, the wind turns onshore or cross-off, and the swell drops. It’s a bit of a dead zone.

Then on Tuesday the 11th, we get a brief window with a 8 ft E swell (7-second period) and glassy conditions in the morning. Short period, so it’ll be a bit weak and bumpy, but still rideable. Energy is 678.

After that, from Wednesday the 12th through to the end, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-off, and the swell is all over the place. A few mornings like Thursday the 14th (8 ft ESE, 10 seconds, glassy) and Sunday the 16th (8 ft S, 8 seconds, cross-shore) are worth a look if you’re keen, but nothing’s clean and consistent.

The standout is Sunday morning, August 2nd. Get out there while it’s firing.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, fresh winds from the SW by Tue morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Tue night. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, calm by Fri morning).

Sat
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
!
!
6
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
S
10
3
SSE
13
2.5
SSE
12
2.1
SSE
11
1.8
SSE
11
1.6
SSE
11
1.3
SSE
10
1.2
SSE
12
3
S
9
4.5
S
13
4.5
S
13
4
S
13
3
SSE
12
2.4
SSE
12
2.1
SSE
11
2
SSE
11
1.6
SSE
10
1.3
SE
10
1.9
SSE
17
2.5
SSE
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1507
2862
1735
1104
787
551
345
439
1633
7352
6402
5256
2597
1674
1126
943
541
309
2040
2675
Wind (km/h)
30
SSW
20
SSW
10
WSW
10
SW
10
NNW
10
WNW
10
S
25
WSW
35
SSW
45
SW
45
SW
35
SSW
30
SW
20
WSW
15
WSW
15
SSW
10
WNW
0
NE
10
ENE
5
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
on
off
High Tide
7:50PM1.58m
8:14AM1.51m
8:34PM1.61m
8:57AM1.55m
9:19PM1.63m
9:39AM1.59m
10:04PM1.65m
10:22AM1.63m
10:51PM1.66m
11:10AM1.67m
11:41PM1.67m
12:04PM1.70m
00:33AM1.67m
Low Tide
2:07AM0.29m
2:15PM0.29m
2:50AM0.27m
3:02PM0.29m
3:34AM0.27m
3:49PM0.29m
4:19AM0.27m
4:38PM0.30m
5:05AM0.28m
5:29PM0.31m
5:54AM0.28m
6:23PM0.31m
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:09
7:09
7:07
7:07
7:05
7:05
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
 mm
1
3
1
5
2
2
1
Temp °C
10
9
9
11
10
13
14
12
8
8
7
8
8
8
8
9
6
9
10
11
Feels °C
2
3
5
7
6
11
11
9
0
-2
-4
-1
1
2
4
4
2
6
6
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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