
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 10s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, S swell with 1,028 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 5 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 5s period with NNE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 5s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 9s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 11) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sat 5th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 5s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 9th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty chiming in from Last Chance. This is a point break for the advanced crew, one that really fires when the swell comes from the north-east, which is a unicorn direction around here. So most of this forecast, we're dealing with south swells hitting it at an awkward angle. The water temp is sitting pretty much normal for September.
We start out today, Friday the 4th, but it's a washout. That's a 3ft SSE swell with weak guts (160) and a side-offshore breeze that's not doing us any favors. Don't even bother.
Saturday the 5th is a classic tease. Morning is dead flat calm, glassy as a mirror, but that 2ft swell has no period to it—just 8 seconds and drained of energy (84). You'll catch a wave or two but they'll be gutless. Once the afternoon cross-onshore wind kicks up, it's game over.
Sunday the 6th, the morning has a cleaner look: 2ft south swell with a better 11-second period, and it's clean. Still weak energy (118). Rideable. The afternoon throws a weird one: a 1ft swell with a 17-second period. That's a super long period groundswell, but it's just too small to wrap into this point properly.
Monday the 7th is a mess of cross-shore wind, and Tuesday the 8th brings the first real size. That's an 8ft south swell, combined energy at 1158, solid and powerful. The wind is clean side-offshore. But it's 8ft at a point that doesn't want the south direction. That's going to be big, powerful, and tricky. Experts only. Don't even think about it if you're not comfortable on solid 8-foot point waves.
Wednesday the 9th drops back to a 5ft SSE swell, but it's short period, and the wind turns onshore in the afternoon.
Now, Thursday the 10th is a sneaky good one. Glassy calm in the afternoon. Just a 2ft south swell with a nice 12-second period. Energy is weak (139), but the clean, glassy conditions will make it feel like the best 2-foot wave you've ever surfed. That's your best bet for the first week.
Alright, let's jump to the second week. It's a long way off, so don't book your flights yet, but the models are showing potential. Saturday the 12th: a 7ft south swell builds, and by the afternoon it drops slightly to 6ft but goes clean with a light side-offshore wind. Combined energy hits 939—solid moderate power. Wrong direction, but still some long walls on offer.
The big boy arrives Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th. Swell hits 8ft with a solid 12-13 second period, and the energy skyrockets to 2182. That's serious, heavy water. Sunday the 13th afternoon has gentle side-offshore wind, making it the pick of this whole period for experts. Expect heavy, grinding lines.
Tuesday the 15th morning is glassy again with a clean 4ft SSE swell. A beautiful little clean-up session.
Then circle Thursday the 17th. We get a 5ft to 6ft south swell with a 11-12 second period, combined energy at 842, and a light to moderate offshore wind. This is it. This is the one for the average advanced surfer. Clean, solid, good shape, offshore wind. That's a proper point surf day.
Friday the 18th still has some rideable 3ft surf with offshore wind, but by Saturday the 19th it's tiny and cross-on, and the window closes.
So the long and short of it: the first week is mostly waiting. Your two big targets are Sunday the 13th for the heavy, expert-level power, and Thursday the 17th for a much cleaner, still-solid session with proper wind. Get it while it's good.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 13 | S 11 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | NE 6 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | NE 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
156 | 74 | 31 | 15 | 63 | 84 | 108 | 97 | 142 | 46 | 47 | 43 | 44 | 40 | 192 | 209 | 165 | 82 | 40 | 28 | 18 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | glassy | on | cross |
High Tide | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | 12:46PM1.73m | 1:15AM1.63m | 1:45PM1.73m | 2:15AM1.61m | 2:43PM1.74m | 3:14AM1.61m | 3:41PM1.74m | 4:12AM1.62m | 4:37PM1.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | 6:29AM0.21m | 7:08PM0.21m | 7:26AM0.19m | 8:07PM0.18m | 8:26AM0.16m | 9:05PM0.15m | 9:27AM0.13m | 10:02PM0.13m | 10:25AM0.11m | 10:59PM0.13m | ||||||||
6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
— | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 17 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
Feels °C | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSW 5 | SSW 6 | S 8 | NE 5 | S 11 | S 9 | S 17 | S 11 | S 10 | NE 5 | S 7 | S 7 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | NE 8 |
156 | 74 | 15 | 16 | 63 | 13 | 108 | 39 | 142 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 26 | 33 | 192 | 209 | 165 | 82 | 40 | 28 | 18 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | NE 10 | SSE 10 | S 8 | S 15 | S 10 | S 18 | S 18 | E 10 | S 16 | S 16 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | NE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | NE 7 | NE 7 | SSE 7 |
4 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 17 | 45 | 26 | 97 | 2 | 46 | 44 | 43 | 44 | 40 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 14 | 12 | 10 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 18 | NNE 4 | S 9 | ENE 10 | S 13 | ENE 4 | E 10 | S 8 | E 10 | — | S 15 | NE 6 | NE 7 | SE 7 | NE 15 | NE 15 | NE 14 | NE 4 | ENE 8 | S 13 |
— | 6 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 84 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | 17 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 2 | NNW 3 | SW 5 | — | NE 3 | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NNE 4 | NE 6 | NNE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | WNW 3 | — | WSW 3 |
1 | 5 | 34 | — | 3 | — | — | — | 1 | 19 | 47 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 1 | — | 5 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 23 | 130 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 86 | 71 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










