Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 7,318 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 4 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.3m 12s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, surfers, Rusty here with the outlook for Last Chance. This is a classic advanced point break, and it's got some serious potential, but we've got to pick our moments. The water's sitting at about average for this time of year, nothing unusual to report there.
Right now, the first few days are a write-off. We're looking at a big, chunky, and messy swell with strong winds. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th have waves up to 16 ft from the south, but with a strong cross-off breeze and a massive amount of energy (over 6000 on Wednesday morning), it's just too unruly and powerful for a good paddle session. You'd need a jetski for this kind of juice. That said, the set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through that mid-week blow.
We finally get a window of calm on Friday morning, August 7th. That's our first real standout. The swell drops to a clean 3 ft from the SSE, but listen to this – a 17-second period. That is a very long-period groundswell. Combined with glassy conditions (3 mph wind from the WNW), the waves will be lined-up and powerful for the size. The energy is still moderate (1078), but for an advanced spot like this, that long period will wrap in beautifully. Expect clean, critical waves for the experienced crew.
The good vibes roll into Saturday, August 8th. Morning has a 6 ft SSE swell with a 12-second period and a light cross-off breeze, which is a solid combo. The afternoon gets even better – glassy conditions again, with 6 ft swell. This is a top-quality weekend on the cards.
The swell fades out Sunday and Monday, with smaller, weaker waves and a return of wind. Then we hit a long, flat, and poor stretch from the 11th through the 14th. Onshore winds and tiny, weak swell mean the break is pretty much dead.
Look further ahead to Wednesday, August 19th. This is another potential bomb. The forecast shows an 8 ft S swell with a 12-second period and clean offshore west winds. The energy jumps back up to a strong 3049. It's a long-range call, so treat it as promising but not locked in, but if it holds, this is a serious, expert-level day at Last Chance.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon night, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | S 14 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 511 | 3978 | 3251 | 5353 | 6634 | 4599 | 3610 | 1518 | 932 | 740 | 493 | 1135 | 1541 | 1036 | 774 | 408 | 328 | 298 | 358 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | ||||||
Low Tide | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  | | |  | |  | | |  | |  |  |  | | | |
 | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — |
mm | 1 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | -1 | -3 | -3 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | — | — | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | 511 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | — | 2677 | 1518 | 826 | 740 | 461 | 1135 | 1541 | 1036 | 774 | 408 | 328 | 298 | 358 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | ESE 16 | SE 15 | S 11 | SE 14 | SSE 17 | SSE 10 | SE 13 | SSE 16 | SE 11 | SSE 15 | SE 14 | SE 14 | SSE 14 |
| kJ | 58 | 7 | — | — | — | — | 26 | 57 | 235 | 30 | 493 | 446 | 166 | 177 | 43 | 21 | 100 | 96 | 207 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 18 | SE 14 | E 16 | SE 12 | ESE 12 | NE 14 | SE 12 | NE 13 | E 12 | E 12 | SSE 17 | E 12 |
| kJ | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 89 | 5 | 124 | 104 | 8 | 89 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 11 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | S 14 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSW 12 | S 10 | SSW 9 | — | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | — | SSW 3 | — |
| kJ | 61 | 3978 | 3251 | 5353 | 6634 | 4599 | 3610 | 1401 | 932 | 314 | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | 2 | — | 3 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 93 | 149 | 160 | 160 | 153 | 86 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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