Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 14 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.3° C
1.5° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 13 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 17 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, SSE swell with 5,914 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Sun 16th Aug)15ft (4.5m) 11s
Best Surf 9PM (Sun 16th Aug)15ft (4.5m) 11s
Most Powerful 3PM (Mon 17th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here checkin' in with a look at the next few weeks. We've only got one spot on the radar, and that’s Last Chance. It’s a point break that needs a solid NE swell to really light up, and it's exposed for it. Right now though, we are in a bit of a lull. The first few days are a write-off. Thursday the 13th of August is junk – onshore wind, lumpy, poor surf. Forget it.

We finally get a little bump on Saturday morning the 15th. Swell hits about 7ft from the east, but it’s got a cross-on wind and only a 9-second period. The water here is sitting a bit colder than average for this time of year, so you’ll feel that chill.

Sunday the 16th is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning is blown out by a near gale from the SSW, so that’s no good. But by the afternoon, the wind swings cross-off and cleans it up. Don’t get too excited though – the swell jumps to a serious 12ft from the south. That’s expert territory only, and the energy is ramped right up (2733). Still, it’s clean, so for the brave, it’s on.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th stay strong, with 10ft+ south swell and strong winds that keep things clean but tricky. It’s powerful, big wave energy (over 1700), but it’s guarded as marginal at best. Not a beginner's playground.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday the 20th is the standout of the whole outlook. Morning session sees a 8ft swell from the SSE with a long 13-second period, and the wind is offshore from the WSW at 12 mph. That combo spells excellent conditions for the experienced surfer. The energy is pumping (2587), and it’s going to be clean, lined-up waves. This is the one to circle on the calendar. But keep in mind, crowds are *sometimes* around here, so you might have company.

Friday the 21st morning is also a gem. The swell drops a bit to 5ft from the SSE but with a 12-second period and glassy conditions – wind is almost nothing from the NW. That’s a magic window for a fun, clean session.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd keeps the good vibes rolling. Saturday sees clean 4ft swell from the SSE with a 15-second period, and by the afternoon we get gentle offshore winds. Sunday is smaller, around 3ft, but still clean. Good for the longboard or a fun twinny.

After that, we trail off. The last week of August into the 28th gets small and weak, with energy dropping below 200. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

Overall call: If you’re after the best, Thursday the 20th morning is it – big, clean, offshore, and powerful. The 21st morning is a close second for a more manageable, glassy session. After the 23rd, you can put the board away for a while.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 43mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the ESE on Sat morning, strong winds from the SW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Mon morning). Mainly strong winds.

Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
1
2
1
0
1
!
0
0
!
0
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
ENE
6
1.6
ENE
7
2.4
E
8
2.4
E
9
2
E
8
2
E
9
1.3
E
8
3.5
S
10
4.5
S
11
4.5
SSE
11
5
SSE
11
4.5
SSE
11
3.5
SSE
10
4
SSE
10
3.5
S
10
3.5
S
11
3.5
S
11
3
SSE
10
2.4
SSE
9
2.3
SSE
9
1.9
SSE
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
136
219
762
856
553
613
234
2371
4341
4908
5914
4252
2546
2699
2162
2935
3019
1524
897
808
530
Wind (km/h)
20
NE
25
ENE
25
E
15
ESE
15
S
25
SW
45
SW
45
SSW
45
SSW
45
SSW
50
SSW
45
SSW
50
SW
45
SW
40
SW
40
SSW
40
SSW
35
SW
35
SW
30
SW
15
W
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
High Tide
6:49PM1.87m
7:19AM1.73m
7:41PM1.84m
8:11AM1.75m
8:31PM1.81m
9:00AM1.76m
9:21PM1.76m
9:46AM1.75m
10:10PM1.71m
10:33AM1.72m
10:59PM1.67m
11:22AM1.67m
11:48PM1.62m
Low Tide
12:32PM0.05m
1:11AM0.09m
1:24PM0.08m
2:02AM0.11m
2:17PM0.13m
2:51AM0.16m
3:09PM0.20m
3:39AM0.22m
4:01PM0.28m
4:27AM0.30m
4:51PM0.34m
5:15AM0.36m
5:41PM0.40m
light rain
light rain
heavy rain
light rain
light rain
mod rain
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
5:34
5:35
 mm
1
5
12
4
2
7
6
2
4
2
2
4
1
2
5
2
1
1
Temp °C
13
13
13
13
13
13
9
9
9
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
11
10
10
11
11
Feels °C
9
9
8
11
11
10
-1
-1
-1
-3
-2
0
0
-1
1
2
3
2
3
4
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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