Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 14 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 20 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period, S swell with 3,627 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 8s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Thu 20th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here.
Well, it's a proper slow start at Last Chance. We've got a solid 16-day window ahead, but the first few days are a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The wind is just a mess and the swell is junky.
The first real chance to get wet isn't until Saturday the 16th in the morning. Even then, it's a bit of a surrender. The swell is 5ft from the east, which is okay, but the wind is swinging SW and blowing a solid 22 mph. It's clean from the cross-off, but that's about the only positive. The combined swell energy is moderate (486). By Sunday the 17th, things get serious, but not in a good way for us. We're looking at a 13ft swell from the SSE with a period of 10 seconds, but it's getting blasted by 25 mph S winds. That's a big, messy, dangerous setup – more for the kites than for a surfboard, honestly. Combined energy is very strong (3439). Monday the 18th isn't much better; still big and blowing hard.
Tuesday the 19th and Wednesday the 20th see the size drop a little, but we're still dealing with strong breezes and marginal quality. You're a charger if you're out there.
The standout window, the one you've been waiting for, is the morning of Saturday the 22nd. The stars align briefly. We’ve got a clean 5ft swell from the SSE with a very long period of 14 seconds. That combination suggests a powerful, groundswell pulse. The kicker? Glassy conditions. Absolute zero wind. Expect really good, clean lines at Last Chance. This is a long-period swell, so it might be a bit straighter on the beach, but on this point, it should be lined up beautifully. It's a bit of a tease, as the afternoon gets messy again with NE wind.
After that, the surf backs right off for several days. We drop down into the 2ft to 0.5ft range through Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th. Tiny slop.
The next true bright spot is on Friday the 28th. Another morning of glassy conditions with a 3ft swell from the south at a 15-second period. The combined energy is moderate (672), and it's set to be very good. That's worth a paddle out.
Saturday the 29th holds some hope too, with clean winds and glassy conditions in the afternoon, pushing 3ft from the east.
So, circle Saturday the 22nd morning – that’s your best shot for the whole outlook. The long-period south swell and absolute glass-off is a golden hour for Last Chance. After that, get out again on the morning of the 28th for another clean, glassy session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 84mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Sat afternoon, near gales from the SW by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Wed morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Mon afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WSW by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | E 8 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 9 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 307 | 878 | 1181 | 702 | 559 | 313 | 286 | 2573 | 3016 | 2646 | 1955 | 1676 | 2836 | 3183 | 3627 | 3394 | 2023 | 1818 | 1256 | 1178 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:49PM1.87m | 7:19AM1.73m | 7:41PM1.84m | 8:11AM1.75m | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | 11:22AM1.67m | 11:48PM1.62m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:11AM0.09m | 1:24PM0.08m | 2:02AM0.11m | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | 5:15AM0.36m | 5:41PM0.40m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | |  | | |  |  |  |  | | |  | | |  | |
 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — |
 | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — |
mm | 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | S 15 | E 9 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 9 | E 9 | SE 10 | E 18 | SE 16 | SE 14 | SE 13 | S 15 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 |
| kJ | 12 | 17 | 741 | 702 | 559 | 313 | 286 | 239 | 244 | 207 | 106 | 681 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 46 | 662 | 1622 | 1256 | 1178 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | SSW 15 | S 16 | S 18 | S 18 | ESE 8 | ENE 9 | ESE 15 | E 10 | — | — | ENE 10 | — | ESE 16 | — | — | SE 12 | SE 11 | ESE 14 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 20 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 98 | 173 | 151 | 22 | 96 | — | — | 31 | — | 24 | — | — | 54 | 20 | 19 | 15 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | S 18 | — | S 14 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 20 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 14 | SE 14 | SE 10 |
| kJ | 5 | 6 | — | 4 | 121 | 563 | 229 | 128 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30 | 29 | 16 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | E 8 | ENE 9 | — | — | SSW 6 | SSW 8 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | — | — |
| kJ | 307 | 878 | 1181 | — | — | 221 | 1064 | 2573 | 3016 | 2646 | 1955 | 1676 | 2836 | 3183 | 3627 | 3394 | 2023 | 1818 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 122 | 122 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 103 | 141 | 149 | 276 | 153 | 102 | 103 | 102 | 86 | 160 | 153 | 93 | 86 | 105 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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