
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 7 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, S swell with 3,612 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 8s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Wed 9th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let's take a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first days are a write-off with tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. You’re not missing a thing until we get into the back half of the week. The real story here is Last Chance, an advanced point break that's exposed to the swell. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is about 1° cooler than usual for this time of year – just a little on the chilly side, nothing wild.
Wednesday morning, the 9th, things start to look up. We’ve got a clean 5ft swell from the SE, with a light offshore wind from the WSW. The energy is moderate (294), and while the period is a short 8 seconds, it’s a build-up. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and surfable. That afternoon turns glassy with a 5ft swell from the SE and light easterly winds, making for some really nice, clean lines. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, so you might have a few friends out, but it’s well worth it.
Thursday the 10th is a bit of a letdown – the swell drops off to under 3ft, but the afternoon does turn glassy. It’s ordinary, but at least it’s clean.
Now, hold onto your board. The standout is Sunday the 13th. That morning is an absolute gem. We’re looking at a solid 8ft swell from the S, with a very long 16-second period, and a sweet offshore wind from the W. The energy is pumping hard (3084). This is an excellent, powerful groundswell that will be reeling down that point. It’s expert-only territory at that size, and with that long period, it’s going to be a freight train. The afternoon stays clean with a 7ft S swell. This is the best on offer – no question.
Monday the 14th is still holding strong with a 6ft S swell and a 14-second period. The morning is glassy with a WSW breeze, making for excellent conditions, though it’s still a meaty wave for the experienced. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-onshore breeze, so the morning is the move.
The rest of the first week and into the second week drops off significantly. The week of the 15th sees smaller, less energetic swells, mostly in the 2ft to 4ft range. There are some clean windows with offshore winds, but it’s very ordinary, surfable but nothing to write home about.
Then, looking ahead, we get a pulse of energy again on Friday the 18th. A solid 10ft S swell with a 10-second period rolls in, but the wind is a strong cross-offshore, making it a bit messy. The energy is huge (2761 and 1818), but the conditions are only marginal. For the experienced, there might be some bombs, but it’s not the clean, groomed wave we had on the 13th.
The final few days of the outlook, from the 19th onward, are a mix of small, clean, glassy mornings and some fun, longer-period swells. The 22nd of September, a Tuesday, is a promising one with a 3ft to 3ft swell from the S, with a very long period of 20-21 seconds, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate (677-717), and that long period means it will be walled up and powerful for its size – another great day for the point.
So, the call is simple: if you’re an expert, Sunday the 13th is the day. Get on it. The rest of the window is a waiting game for the next pulse.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 42mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Mon night, calm by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 6 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | S 15 | S 6 | S 7 | S 18 | S 12 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 16 | S 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 26 | 1929 | 1660 | 916 | 371 | 276 | 215 | 114 | 70 | 72 | 69 | 236 | 178 | 216 | 73 | 567 | 3311 | 3064 | 2096 | 1310 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 1:45PM1.73m | 2:15AM1.61m | 2:43PM1.74m | 3:14AM1.61m | 3:41PM1.74m | 4:12AM1.62m | 4:37PM1.75m | 5:08AM1.63m | 5:33PM1.75m | 6:03AM1.67m | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:07PM0.18m | 8:26AM0.16m | 9:05PM0.15m | 9:27AM0.13m | 10:02PM0.13m | 10:25AM0.11m | 10:59PM0.13m | 11:19AM0.11m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | ||||||||
6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | |
— | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | |
mm | 2 | 5 | 33 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
Feels °C | 13 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 6 | NNE 7 | NNE 8 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | ENE 13 | ESE 7 | S 7 | S 6 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 16 | S 15 |
24 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 916 | 371 | 276 | 215 | 114 | 70 | 72 | 36 | 17 | 79 | 58 | 31 | 567 | 3311 | 3064 | 2096 | 1310 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | NE 5 | NE 9 | N 10 | NE 17 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 | S 8 | S 15 | ENE 8 | S 19 | SE 7 | S 12 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | NE 12 |
46 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 22 | 12 | 69 | 6 | 171 | 44 | 73 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 36 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | S 11 | — | NE 16 | NE 17 | NE 9 | E 15 | NE 15 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 10 | ENE 14 | S 18 | SE 6 | ESE 6 | — | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | NE 12 |
2 | 21 | — | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 216 | 10 | 4 | — | 14 | 14 | 22 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | WSW 2 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SW 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | NNE 3 | N 3 | — | — | S 6 | S 7 | — | SSW 7 | — | NE 8 | — | — | SW 3 |
4 | 1 | 1929 | 1660 | 126 | 66 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | 236 | 178 | — | 56 | — | 17 | — | — | 6 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 1 | 103 | 101 | 122 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 9 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










