
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, E swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 11 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 10s period, S swell with 3,198 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 18s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Mon 6th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Sat 11th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day look at Last Chance, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We need to be patient.
We’re starting off this outlook on Saturday the 4th of July with some clean surf in the morning. The swell is a modest 5ft from the east with a period of 12 seconds, which is a decent groundswell, and the water is sitting at 55°, which is about 3° cooler than usual for this time of year – so you’ll want the thick rubber. However, that nice morning window quickly gets blown out by the afternoon as the wind swings onshore. Sunday and Monday look pretty poor as well, with messy, choppy conditions and building but junky swell.
The first real standout arrives on Tuesday the 7th of July in the afternoon. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and the swell is a solid 6ft from the east with a 10 second period. The wave energy is strong (713), and the surface is going to be perfect. This is your best chance for smooth, clean waves all day.
Wednesday the 8th of July morning brings another winner. The wind swings offshore from the west-southwest, blowing gently at 9 mph. The swell holds at 6ft from the east (10 seconds), and the combined energy is pumping hard (893). The lineup will be clean and well-shaped thanks to that offshore breeze. This is a true standout window.
Thursday the 9th starts rough with rain and onshore wind, but the afternoon brings a major shift. A new swell fills in, pushing 7ft from the east-southeast (10 seconds), and the energy absolutely rockets to 1785. The wind cleans right up to a light cross-offshore. This is excellent, powerful surf, but at this size, it’s definitely for experienced surfers only. Friday and Saturday the 10th and 11th get wild but messy with strong winds and a big, unruly swell up to 13ft – a kite surfer's paradise more than a paddle session.
Looking into the second week, things settle down but stay good. Monday the 13th of July morning is a highlight with clean 8ft surf from the south (9 seconds) and light cross-offshore winds (1798 energy). Still a big, powerful wave for those who can handle it. By Tuesday the 14th the swell drops, and by Wednesday and Thursday we’re looking at smaller, long-period southerly groundswells (up to 15 seconds). These are better for the points and reefs to hold shape, as a long period swell at a beach break can be a bit straight. The winds are light but mostly cross or onshore. The final few days from Friday the 17th onwards fade right out with tiny surf and strong winds.
In short, lock in Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning of the first week. The long-range action around Monday the 13th is also promising, but keep an eye on the wind as it gets closer.
Stay safe,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NE on Sun night, calm by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 32mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue night, strong winds from the S by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sat 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 8 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
459 | 443 | 284 | 196 | 144 | 705 | 655 | 1126 | 797 | 725 | 1130 | 1130 | 1020 | 868 | 490 | 499 | 1315 | 2703 | 2616 | 2625 | 3178 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:00PM1.57m | 9:24AM1.48m | 9:44PM1.57m | 10:05AM1.50m | 10:30PM1.58m | 10:48AM1.53m | 11:16PM1.60m | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | 1:22PM1.70m | 1:49AM1.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:19AM0.32m | 3:27PM0.35m | 4:02AM0.31m | 4:14PM0.35m | 4:46AM0.31m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:32AM0.31m | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | 7:39PM0.34m | 8:00AM0.29m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | |
4:57 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | 5:01 | |
mm | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Temp °C | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 8 | S 15 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 9 | ESE 9 | E 10 |
459 | 443 | 284 | 196 | 144 | 4 | 655 | 860 | 797 | 725 | 1130 | 1130 | 1020 | 868 | 490 | 499 | 784 | 279 | 293 | 132 | 31 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 17 | S 16 | S 22 | S 20 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 10 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 17 | S 16 | NE 8 | — | — | — | — |
3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 106 | 92 | 81 | 46 | 64 | 56 | 48 | 49 | 79 | 17 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 11 | — | S 16 | — | — | S 22 | S 13 | SSW 18 | S 10 | S 10 | S 15 | S 9 | SSW 14 | S 18 | S 12 | SSW 16 | SSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
2 | — | 5 | — | — | 9 | 3 | 133 | 18 | 32 | 74 | 14 | 143 | 26 | 27 | 100 | 74 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 7 | ENE 9 | — | NE 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 9 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 10 |
35 | 92 | 98 | 138 | 128 | 705 | — | 1126 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 131 | 214 | 1315 | 2703 | 2616 | 2625 | 3178 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 23 | 36 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 88 | 103 | 246 | 102 | 102 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











