Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, checkin’ in for the local surf scene.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead. The first few days are pretty lackluster, nothing to get excited about. Honestly, it’s a tough start with small, weak swell and not much push. Then things really start to ramp up in the second week, but we’re talkin’ some serious size that’s gonna be for the experienced crew only.

Let’s start with the standout: Last Chance (Point Break). This is the only break on offer, so it’s where we’ll be lookin’. The early part of the forecast is a slow burn. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st of July are a write-off – tiny waves around 2.6 ft to 4.6 ft from the ESE, with a period around 11-12 seconds. The energy is weak, sitting between 204 and 722 (weak to low-moderate). Wind is cross to cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but there’s just not enough swell to make it worthwhile. It’s a marginal surf forecast, and I’d say stay home or find a different hobby those days.

Saturday the 1st of August sees a jump in size, with swell hitting 8.2 ft to 9.8 ft from the S and SSE, but the period drops to 8-10 seconds, making it a bit junky. The combined energy jumps to 1029 (moderate) in the morning and a massive 2259 (strong) in the afternoon. Winds are cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but this is already gettin’ big for beginners – over 8.2 ft. Sunday the 2nd stays solid, with 7.5 ft to 8.2 ft SSE swell at 11-12 seconds and strong energy (1366 to 2028). Still cross-offshore winds, so it’s clean, but it’s a lot of water moving around.

Now, Monday the 3rd of August is an interesting sneaky good day. The swell drops to a more manageable 3.6 ft to 4.9 ft from the SSE, period around 10 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (507 to 545). Winds are light, from the WNW and SSW, makin’ for clean conditions. The guidance says “expect very good surf conditions,” and for the size, this could be a fun day for the mid-range crew. Not a standout for size, but a quality window.

But the real standout, the one that’s got my heart pumpin’, is Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning sees 9.8 ft from the S with a *very* long period of 16 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 4219 (strong). Then the afternoon gets even bigger: 13.1 ft from the S at 14 seconds, with energy of 6699 (very strong). Winds are cross-offshore from the SW, keepin’ it clean. This is groundswell of the highest order. For a point break like Last Chance, that long period and southerly direction will line up beautifully – think long, powerful lines. This is the best session on offer. It’s only for experts at this size, but if you’ve got the skills, this is the one to circle on the calendar.

Wednesday the 5th stays big with 9.8 ft SSE swell at 13 seconds (energy 2474 to 2959), but the quality starts to slip a bit with some clouds and the wind turning more onshore later. Thursday the 6th of August starts with a glassy morning – 6.6 ft SSE swell at 11 seconds – and the “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” tag. That glassy wind from the NNW is a major positive. It’ll be a clean, powerful wave, but it’s still hefty.

The rest of the forecast from the 7th onward is a rollercoaster. Friday the 7th gets choppy and ugly with onshore winds and a drop in period. Saturday the 8th has another glassy morning with 6.2 ft SSE swell at 12 seconds – excellent conditions – but the afternoon gets messy. Then Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th of August see the swell absolutely *explode* – we’re talkin’ 14.8 ft to 21.3 ft with combined energy readings over 10,000 (very strong). The forecast flat-out says the swell is too big for the break. That’s a hard pass for paddling, but if you’re a tow-in chargin’ mutant, you do you. The wind is cross-offshore on Monday, so it’s clean but apocalyptic.

After that, it drops back to 8.2 ft to 13.1 ft through the 12th to the 14th, but the wind patterns get messy with cross-on and onshore flows, making most of those days marginal or poor. The 13th of August morning looks clean with 8.2 ft ESE swell at 12 seconds, a solid option for experienced surfers, but the afternoon turns to chop.

There is a long gap of a few days at the very start with no real surf to recommend, just that weak stuff. After that, it’s a tale of two weeks: a small clean start, then a massive, expert-only groundswell peak on the 4th of August, followed by a

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