Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 8 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 7,296 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 2 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 7s period and expected on Monday (Sep 07) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let me tell you how this next couple weeks is shapin' up here at Last Chance. It's a heavy-duty, expert-only point break, and it's exposed to the south swell. The water's sittin' at 55° which is a bit colder than we'd normally expect for this time of year, so don't kid yourself about needing a decent suit.
The first couple of days are the real highlight here. Right off the bat on Tuesday the 1st, we've got a solid 8ft south swell rolling in with a nice 12-second period. That's a ton of energy— we're talking 2105 in the combined energy reading—and with a light cross-off breeze from the SSW, the face is gonna be clean. This is big, powerful stuff though, so if you're not an expert, don't even paddle out. Wednesday the 2nd keeps the energy pumping with a 8ft south swell in the morning and even bigger 8ft in the afternoon, but there's some cross and onshore wind messin' with the shape a bit; the quality is there but the tide might be a factor.
Thursday the 3rd morning is still a very good option. The swell drops to a clean 5ft from the south with a long 13-second period. The wind is a light cross-off from the NNW, so the face is gonna be clean as a whistle, and the energy is a solid 901. This is probably the most manageable day for advanced surfers before it all starts to fade.
And fade it does. From late Thursday afternoon through the whole weekend and into the start of the following week, the swell completely drops out. We're talkin' tiny 0.7ft to 2ft stuff with hardly any energy. It's a total flat spell for nearly five days. Not worth getting wet.
Now, for the more patient amongst you, the surf starts to build back up on Tuesday the 8th. We see a big pulse of 10ft from the south with a moderate cross-off wind, but the forecast calls for marginal conditions. The energy is huge at 2444, so it's gonna be a beast for experts only. Wednesday the 9th holds onto some solid 6ft swell but it's riddled with cross-shore wind chop.
The real standout of the second week looks to be Thursday morning the 11th. The wind goes glassy—dead calm from the west—and we get a 7ft groundswell from the southeast with a very long 13-second period. The energy is a strong 1426. At an exposed point like this, that long period is gonna wrap in perfectly, offering up powerful, well-shaped lines. The morning is your window; the afternoon gets onshore. Saturday the 13th morning is also worth a mention, with glassy conditions and a 7ft ESE swell, though the period is shorter at 10 seconds.
To wrap it up, your best bets are the first three days of September for the biggest, most consistent swell, and then the morning of Thursday the 11th for a glassy, powerful session. After that, the swell gets inconsistent and the winds turn messy.
Stay stoked,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Mon morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 14 | S 14 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 15 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 7 | NNE 7 | S 16 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
2086 | 3355 | 1923 | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 556 | 232 | 116 | 75 | 31 | 17 | 45 | 43 | 102 | 41 | 104 | 77 | 20 | 7296 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | 12:46PM1.73m | 1:15AM1.63m | 1:45PM1.73m | 2:15AM1.61m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | 6:29AM0.21m | 7:08PM0.21m | 7:26AM0.19m | 8:07PM0.18m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | |
5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 2 | -1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 14 | S 14 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 10 | SSW 5 | SSW 6 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | NE 6 | NE 6 | — |
2086 | 3355 | 1923 | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 556 | 232 | 116 | 75 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 43 | 102 | 41 | 15 | 17 | 6 | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | S 18 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 15 | SSW 6 | ENE 4 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | — |
19 | 9 | 639 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 52 | 46 | 20 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 11 | ENE 9 | — | SE 11 | — | — | SE 12 | — | S 18 | NNE 4 | S 15 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 8 | E 10 | NE 10 | — |
— | 4 | 8 | — | 5 | — | — | 5 | — | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NE 9 | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 2 | NNW 4 | — | — | — | NE 4 | N 3 | NE 4 | NE 7 | NNE 7 | SW 5 | S 12 |
— | — | — | 21 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | — | — | — | 7 | 2 | 28 | 104 | 77 | 62 | 7296 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 130 | 130 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 103 | 103 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











