Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's break down the next 16 days.

We're kicking off with a slow start, but the first real action worth paddling for hits on the weekend of the 18th. There's a few small, clean waves before that to keep you honest.

Last Chance is a point break, exposed to the NE swell, and it's strictly for the advanced crew. The water is sitting at 56°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you'll want a thick wetsuit.

The first semi-decent window is Monday morning, the 13th of July. We've got a 3ft S swell, with a period of 11 seconds, and a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate (265). It's clean, but tiny. Not a standout, but it's a start.

We then hit a real lull through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday morning. The surf is tiny, around 2ft to 2ft, and the energy drops off. Thursday afternoon the 16th, however, things look up. A 2ft ESE swell arrives with a very long 17-second period, and the wind goes offshore from the WNW. The combined energy jumps to a strong 328. It's clean, long-period groundswell, and for a point break like Last Chance, that's a treat. A quiet, glassy option.

Friday the 17th sees a big jump in size. We're looking at 5ft to 6ft ESE swell with a 16-second period, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the SSW at 15 mph. The combined energy is massive (1115-2236), but the conditions are described as "marginal." It's big, powerful, and on the edge of being clean. This is for the experienced crew.

Now, here's the real standout. Saturday morning, the 18th of July. The forecast is for 5ft ESE swell, 14-second period, and the wind goes glassy, dead calm from the NNE at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a very strong 1596. This is the pick of the first week. It's clean, powerful, and the point will be handling that ESE swell beautifully. This is "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." The only thing is, crowds at Last Chance are "sometimes" an issue, so get in early.

Sunday the 19th drops off to 4ft, but the wind is fresh from the SSW. It's still a solid option for the brave.

Then we get a second pulse of energy. Monday the 20th is a bit messy with rain and strong wind, but Tuesday the 21st of July is another serious standout. We're looking at a 8ft SSE swell with a 16-second period in the morning, and a light cross-offshore SW wind. The combined energy is a colossal 2728. This is for experts only. It's big, it's powerful, and it's clean. The afternoon holds at 7ft. This is heavy, world-class potential.

The quality hangs on through Wednesday and Thursday the 22nd and 23rd, with 6ft to 5ft SSE/SE swells, clean conditions, and more moderate energy (799 to 511). Excellent, solid waves.

After that, the swell backs off into the last week of July. We get some small, clean 2ft to 3ft ESE swells through the 24th, 25th, and 26th, with glassy conditions on Sunday morning. It's not the big stuff, but it's a fun way to finish the forecast period. The following Monday and Tuesday the 27th and 28th look a bit choppy and less appealing.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best of the best is Saturday morning, the 18th of July for clean, powerful, glassy conditions, and Tuesday the 21st of July for the big, expert-level grunt.

Rusty.

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