
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, S swell with 6,693 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 13s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Wed 5th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, checkin’ in for the local surf scene.
We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead. The first few days are pretty lackluster, nothing to get excited about. Honestly, it’s a tough start with small, weak swell and not much push. Then things really start to ramp up in the second week, but we’re talkin’ some serious size that’s gonna be for the experienced crew only.
Let’s start with the standout: Last Chance (Point Break). This is the only break on offer, so it’s where we’ll be lookin’. The early part of the forecast is a slow burn. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st of July are a write-off – tiny waves around 2.6 ft to 4.6 ft from the ESE, with a period around 11-12 seconds. The energy is weak, sitting between 204 and 722 (weak to low-moderate). Wind is cross to cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but there’s just not enough swell to make it worthwhile. It’s a marginal surf forecast, and I’d say stay home or find a different hobby those days.
Saturday the 1st of August sees a jump in size, with swell hitting 8.2 ft to 9.8 ft from the S and SSE, but the period drops to 8-10 seconds, making it a bit junky. The combined energy jumps to 1029 (moderate) in the morning and a massive 2259 (strong) in the afternoon. Winds are cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but this is already gettin’ big for beginners – over 8.2 ft. Sunday the 2nd stays solid, with 7.5 ft to 8.2 ft SSE swell at 11-12 seconds and strong energy (1366 to 2028). Still cross-offshore winds, so it’s clean, but it’s a lot of water moving around.
Now, Monday the 3rd of August is an interesting sneaky good day. The swell drops to a more manageable 3.6 ft to 4.9 ft from the SSE, period around 10 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (507 to 545). Winds are light, from the WNW and SSW, makin’ for clean conditions. The guidance says “expect very good surf conditions,” and for the size, this could be a fun day for the mid-range crew. Not a standout for size, but a quality window.
But the real standout, the one that’s got my heart pumpin’, is Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning sees 9.8 ft from the S with a *very* long period of 16 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 4219 (strong). Then the afternoon gets even bigger: 13.1 ft from the S at 14 seconds, with energy of 6699 (very strong). Winds are cross-offshore from the SW, keepin’ it clean. This is groundswell of the highest order. For a point break like Last Chance, that long period and southerly direction will line up beautifully – think long, powerful lines. This is the best session on offer. It’s only for experts at this size, but if you’ve got the skills, this is the one to circle on the calendar.
Wednesday the 5th stays big with 9.8 ft SSE swell at 13 seconds (energy 2474 to 2959), but the quality starts to slip a bit with some clouds and the wind turning more onshore later. Thursday the 6th of August starts with a glassy morning – 6.6 ft SSE swell at 11 seconds – and the “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” tag. That glassy wind from the NNW is a major positive. It’ll be a clean, powerful wave, but it’s still hefty.
The rest of the forecast from the 7th onward is a rollercoaster. Friday the 7th gets choppy and ugly with onshore winds and a drop in period. Saturday the 8th has another glassy morning with 6.2 ft SSE swell at 12 seconds – excellent conditions – but the afternoon gets messy. Then Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th of August see the swell absolutely *explode* – we’re talkin’ 14.8 ft to 21.3 ft with combined energy readings over 10,000 (very strong). The forecast flat-out says the swell is too big for the break. That’s a hard pass for paddling, but if you’re a tow-in chargin’ mutant, you do you. The wind is cross-offshore on Monday, so it’s clean but apocalyptic.
After that, it drops back to 8.2 ft to 13.1 ft through the 12th to the 14th, but the wind patterns get messy with cross-on and onshore flows, making most of those days marginal or poor. The 13th of August morning looks clean with 8.2 ft ESE swell at 12 seconds, a solid option for experienced surfers, but the afternoon turns to chop.
There is a long gap of a few days at the very start with no real surf to recommend, just that weak stuff. After that, it’s a tale of two weeks: a small clean start, then a massive, expert-only groundswell peak on the 4th of August, followed by a
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Wed night, strong winds from the SSW by Sat afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon morning, min 6°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat night, calm by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | S 8 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
767 | 541 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 845 | 2091 | 3214 | 1979 | 1324 | 871 | 464 | 245 | 368 | 4213 | 6693 | 3844 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:56AM1.42m | 6:22PM1.55m | 6:43AM1.44m | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:53PM0.41m | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | |||||||
— | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 10 | SE 16 | NE 16 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | S 13 |
767 | 541 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 53 | 119 | 10 | 1979 | 1324 | 871 | 464 | 245 | 368 | 6 | 6 | 3844 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | NE 7 | NE 5 | SE 15 | SE 16 | E 11 | E 10 | NE 16 | NE 15 | NE 14 | S 21 | SSE 12 | S 17 | — | — | NE 12 |
36 | 176 | 103 | 57 | 52 | 7 | 57 | 119 | 37 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 233 | 53 | — | — | 6 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | — | S 18 | NE 12 | S 14 | SE 15 | NE 5 | NE 17 | NE 17 | E 12 | NE 16 | NE 15 | S 19 | NE 13 | S 20 | S 21 | — | — | — |
56 | — | 6 | 5 | 32 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 39 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 79 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | N 3 | NNE 3 | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | NW 2 | W 3 | S 8 | S 10 | S 12 | — | — | — | — | W 3 | SSW 6 | S 16 | S 14 | — |
2 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 845 | 2091 | 3214 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 19 | 4213 | 6693 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 72 | 103 | 86 | 86 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 88 | 86 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










