Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on offer. The only game in town for the next couple of weeks is the point break, Last Chance. It's an advanced spot, exposed to the swell, and it needs a solid east-northeast pulse to really fire. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent steamer.

We’ve got a bit of a rough start. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are a write-off with strong cross-shore winds and a lot of energy in the water – combined energy is 3418 and 5096 (strong to very strong) – but it’s messy. It’s not worth paddling out. Saturday the 11th still looks marginal, but the afternoon shows a little improvement with a cleaner look as the wind drops.

The first real glimmer of hope comes Sunday morning, the 12th. The wind goes light offshore from the WSW, which will clean things right up. Swell is a manageable 5 ft from the SE, with a period of 10 seconds. The energy is a moderate 657. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun for the advanced crew. That’s a solid window.

The middle of the week dies off. Monday and Tuesday are small, with poor surf conditions. The water goes flat, and only a few weak pulses show up. Thursday the 16th however, is a standout. The morning is glassy, and the swell is a long-period 16-second groundswell from the ESE, pushing 2 ft but with a combined energy of 403. The afternoon ramps up to 4 ft with a 15-second period, and it’s clean. This is a point break, so that long period will set up beautifully.

Now, the real highlight of the whole forecast. Friday the 17th, in the afternoon, is the best you’ll see. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the ESE, with a 16-second period and a combined energy of 2123. The wind goes glassy, dead calm. That’s going to be absolutely firing for experienced surfers. It’s big, but the conditions will be excellent. Saturday the 18th still has some size, but the wind turns onshore and messes it up.

After that, the second week looks pretty grim. The wind gets strong and onshore from the ENE, with a lot of rain. The swell stays around 6 ft to 10 ft, but the conditions are poor. The only flash of potential is Friday the 24th, with a 10 ft ESE swell and a 12-second period, but the wind is cross-on and lumpy. That one’s a long shot, more than a week out, so keep an eye on it but don’t bank on it.

So, for the whole period, your best bets are Sunday morning the 12th for a clean, smaller session, and the absolute standout is Friday afternoon the 17th for the big, glassy, long-period groundswell. That’s the one to clear your schedule for.

Rusty.

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