Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 1 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, S swell with 6,156 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 30 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 30) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 1.1m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 14s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sun 30th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down Last Chance.
We’ve got a slow start, but patience pays off big time if you’re skilled. Water temp is about 54°F, which is a touch cooler than usual for late summer.
Friday (August 28) and Saturday (August 29) are no good – onshore winds and bumpy surf. Sunday the 30th shapes up nicely. Morning brings a light offshore with a 2ft SSE swell and clean conditions. By Sunday afternoon it goes glassy with a 3ft NE swell. The energy is light (119-167), but the clean, glassy surface makes it a fun little session.
Monday the 31st of August afternoon is the first big alert. Glassy conditions meet an 8ft south swell with a 12-second period. Energy is a solid 1960. This is clean, powerful, and for experts only. A proper groundswell.
Tuesday, September 1st afternoon brings the largest swell of the forecast: 12ft south at 14 seconds, with a huge 5101 energy reading. Winds are clean cross-off. This is serious, heavy water – not for the faint of heart. Wednesday the 2nd is almost as good, with an 8ft SSE swell and glassy winds. If you’re advanced, this is the prime window.
After that, it fades. Thursday and Friday are decent but smaller (5ft to 3ft). Then we hit a dead flat spell from Saturday the 5th of September through Wednesday the 9th – tiny waves under 3ft with no energy. A real lull.
There’s a final pulse on Thursday the 10th (8ft south swell), but winds are strong at 30 km/h, making it messy. It cleans up by Friday the 11th (5ft to 6ft south) for a decent finish. Saturday the 12th shows 8ft swell with a fresh offshore, but it’s far out – we’ll keep an eye on it.
Bottom line: wait for that Monday to Wednesday window. That’s the gold.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the S on Mon night, calm by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | NE 9 | S 13 | S 8 | S 12 | S 13 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 861 | 499 | 333 | 193 | 200 | 138 | 101 | 115 | 87 | 581 | 1934 | 1894 | 1918 | 5077 | 3530 | 1783 | 1200 | 887 | 569 | 455 | 303 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | NE 9 | NE 8 | S 16 | S 12 | S 13 | S 14 | NE 10 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 861 | 499 | 333 | 193 | 200 | 138 | 101 | 115 | 72 | 342 | 1934 | 1894 | 1918 | 24 | 3530 | 1783 | 1200 | 887 | 569 | 455 | 303 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 15 | E 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 10 | S 13 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | — | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 11 | ENE 11 | S 16 |
| kJ | 5 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 34 | 18 | 52 | 87 | 39 | 21 | 21 | 25 | — | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 43 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | — | — | SE 13 | SSW 12 | S 15 | SSW 6 | SSW 4 | SE 10 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | NE 8 | NE 10 | SE 11 | SE 12 | SSE 15 |
| kJ | 9 | — | — | 27 | 28 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | 18 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | — | — | WSW 5 | S 8 | — | WNW 3 | — | S 14 | — | — | — | WNW 2 | — | — | NNW 4 |
| kJ | 14 | 58 | 36 | 34 | 28 | 77 | — | — | 16 | 581 | — | 3 | — | 5077 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 54 | 161 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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