Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 09 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.8°C
0.9° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with 3,344 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 10 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 8s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 9s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 17) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Thu 10th Sep)3.5ft (1.1m) 8s
Best Surf 3AM (Sun 13th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s
Most Powerful12AM (Sun 13th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for our spot, Last Chance. This is an advanced point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, with an optimum direction from the northeast. Right now, the water temp is sitting at about 55°, which is a touch cooler than normal for this time of year – nothing too wild, just a hint of autumn in the water.

The first few days are a bit of a letdown, if I’m honest. Wednesday morning the 9th has some glassy conditions with that 5ft swell from the southeast, but the energy is only moderate and the period is a short 8 seconds. It’s surfable, but the real juice is missing. Wednesday afternoon gets messy with a cross-on wind, and Thursday stays small and ordinary. Friday and Saturday are a bit of a washout for quality waves, with some long-period energy but messy wind or small size.

Then, hold onto your board. Sunday morning the 13th is the standout of the whole run. We’ve got a solid 8ft swell from the south with a 14-second period, which is proper groundswell. The energy is very strong, and the wind is offshore from the WSW. That’s going to groom those point break walls into some clean, powerful lines. This is big enough that it’s only for the experienced crew – beginners would be in over their heads. The afternoon stays clean but the wind picks up, so get on it early.

Monday the 14th drops off quickly with crossing wind and choppy conditions, and the rest of that week has a few small, clean windows but nothing to write home about. Tuesday morning the 15th is a small, glassy 3ft from the south with a 12-second period, a nice little session if you’re keen, but not a standout.

We get a long gap of small, poor surf through the 16th, 17th, and 18th. Friday afternoon the 18th does have a glassy, cross-off window with a 2ft swell and a very long 18-second period, but at that size, it’s more of a longboard glider than a proper wave.

Saturday the 19th brings a bit of a pulse with a 4ft swell from the south and a 15-second period, but the wind is fresh and cross-off, so it’ll be clean but a bit bumpy. The energy is strong, but the quality is just okay.

The real second look comes on Wednesday the 23rd. That morning, we’ve got a 3ft swell from the south with a 20-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell that will wrap into the point nicely. The water is glassy with a light cross-off, and the energy is very strong. For a point break, that long period is a dream, giving you long, lined-up walls. It’s clean, but it’s not huge, so a wide range of surfers can handle it. The afternoon gets a bit sloppy with a cross-on wind and an 8ft bump, so that’s more for the experts and a bit of a mess.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Sunday morning the 13th for the biggest, most powerful clean swell of the run. The second look is Wednesday morning the 23rd for a clean, lined-up, long-period groundswell. Everything else is small, mixed, or windy. Keep your eyes on the sky, and remember, at a spot like this, the forecasts can always change for the better.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, fresh winds from the SW by Sat morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Wed
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
0
2
4
4
3
4
3
1
2
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
ESE
8
1.1
SE
8
0.9
SE
7
0.7
SE
8
0.4
S
16
1.5
S
6
0.6
S
18
0.6
S
17
0.6
S
17
2.3
S
7
3
S
15
2.3
S
14
2
S
14
1.7
S
14
1.8
S
13
1.6
S
13
1.2
S
12
1.1
S
11
1
S
10
0.8
S
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
198
129
79
57
75
165
234
214
206
509
3344
2187
1686
1158
1087
865
397
291
216
133
Wind (km/h)
15
ENE
10
NW
10
NW
5
NNW
15
SSW
20
SW
5
S
10
NW
35
SW
20
SSW
15
N
10
NW
15
SSW
15
WSW
10
N
15
ENE
5
W
5
NNE
15
ENE
10
WNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
off
cross
cross-on
off
High Tide
3:41PM1.74m
4:12AM1.62m
4:37PM1.75m
5:08AM1.63m
5:33PM1.75m
6:03AM1.67m
6:25PM1.75m
6:56AM1.71m
7:15PM1.74m
7:45AM1.75m
8:04PM1.73m
8:30AM1.77m
8:52PM1.71m
Low Tide
10:02PM0.13m
10:25AM0.11m
10:59PM0.13m
11:19AM0.11m
11:53PM0.14m
12:11PM0.13m
00:45AM0.17m
1:02PM0.18m
1:33AM0.22m
1:52PM0.24m
2:19AM0.27m
2:43PM0.29m
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
light rain
clear
clear
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:16
6:16
6:13
6:13
6:11
6:09
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
 mm
4
3
2
Temp °C
12
11
15
15
12
10
11
10
12
10
9
14
14
11
15
16
14
14
15
14
Feels °C
8
8
13
13
9
7
9
7
4
5
7
10
10
8
11
13
11
12
12
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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