Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 21 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.2° C
1.6° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 24 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with 2,723 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 22 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.3m 9s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Sat 22nd Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Best Surf 9PM (Mon 24th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 14s
Most Powerful 6PM (Mon 24th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right, cobber, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks. We’re talking about Last Chance, a solid point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell. The water’s sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—so you’ll wanna zip up that wetsuit a little tighter.

The outlook kicks off proper on Friday, August 21st. Friday morning is our first real standout. We’ve got a clean 5-ft swell rolling in from the south with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the NNW at 6 mph. The wave energy is strong (1078), and the conditions are glassy and clean. This is the best on offer early on—excellent for experienced surfers, but at 5-ft, it’s a bit much for beginners. The swell direction matches the optimum (NE) perfectly, so the point will be firing with long, lined-up walls.

Friday afternoon gets a bit messy with a cross-on breeze, so I’d be in the water early.

Saturday morning, August 22nd, still has clean 4-ft south swell, but the energy drops off a lot (445). It’s surfable, but nothing special.

Sunday, August 23rd, is a write-off. The swell drops to 2-ft with weak energy (157), and while the wind is cross-off, there’s just not enough juice. That’s a gap day.

Monday, August 24th, shows a pulse back up. The morning has a clean 5-ft south swell with a shorter 9-second period, but the energy is moderate (407). It’s a decent option, but it’s not the standout.

The real highlight of the first week is Tuesday, August 25th morning. Glassy conditions, 5-ft south swell with a 12-second period, and the energy is solid (587). The wind is dead calm—glass. This is gonna be smooth, clean, and the point will be reeling off some beautiful lines. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get there early for a session you’ll remember.

From Wednesday, August 26th, things taper off again. The swell drops to 2-ft–3-ft with periods all over the place, but the energy is weak. Thursday morning, August 27th, is glassy with a 3-ft south swell and a very long 15-second period—clean, but small. It’s a long-period groundswell, so the point will handle it well, but you’ll be scratching for waves.

Friday, August 28th, and the weekend of August 29th–30th are small and weak. Saturday morning, August 29th, has a clean 3-ft SSE swell, but energy is low (260). Sunday morning, August 30th, is glassy but tiny at 3-ft. The end of August and start of September is a big gap of small, marginal surf.

Now, here’s the wild card. Look at Thursday, September 3rd. We’ve got a massive 16-ft south swell screaming in with a 14-second period and insane energy (9704–9970). The wind is cross-off and strong, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. The point will be closing out and dangerous—only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s a real risk. This is not a recommendation for the average punter.

But hold on. Friday, September 4th morning is the real long-range standout. The swell drops to a still-very-chunky 10-ft SSE with a 14-second period, energy is huge (3758), and the wind is dead calm—glassy. This is excellent for experienced surfers only. The point will be handling that big groundswell beautifully, with long, powerful walls. The offshore on Saturday morning, September 5th, is also clean with 5-ft SSE swell, but Friday morning is the session to circle in your calendar.

So, to sum it up: get on Tuesday morning, August 25th, for the best of the first week. And if you’re brave, keep an eye on Friday, September 4th morning—but that’s a long way off and the forecast could change. For the rest of it, there are long gaps of small or blown-out conditions.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
2
3
3
3
1
2
2
0
2
2
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
S
13
1.5
S
16
1.3
S
13
1.2
S
12
1
S
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.7
SSE
10
0.5
SSE
10
0.3
ESE
13
1.5
S
9
1.9
S
11
2.1
S
13
1.4
S
12
1.1
S
11
0.9
SSE
11
0.7
S
17
0.8
S
17
0.9
S
16
0.9
S
15
0.8
S
14
1.1
S
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
759
1117
582
411
274
210
115
56
33
372
859
1520
529
313
191
284
363
401
343
236
691
Wind (km/h)
10
NNW
10
ENE
10
NNW
5
NNW
5
N
20
WNW
20
NW
20
NNW
20
W
15
WSW
10
S
10
N
5
NW
10
NE
5
NW
5
NNW
15
ENE
10
NW
5
S
10
ENE
15
NNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
glassy
on
cross-off
High Tide
12:14PM1.62m
00:35AM1.57m
1:06PM1.58m
1:22AM1.51m
1:56PM1.54m
2:10AM1.45m
2:43PM1.52m
2:58AM1.40m
3:28PM1.49m
3:46AM1.38m
4:13PM1.49m
4:33AM1.38m
4:59PM1.50m
Low Tide
6:30PM0.44m
6:49AM0.45m
7:20PM0.47m
7:35AM0.46m
8:10PM0.48m
8:23AM0.46m
8:57PM0.47m
9:11AM0.44m
9:43PM0.43m
10:00AM0.41m
10:29PM0.39m
10:48AM0.36m
11:15PM0.34m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:47
6:46
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:39
6:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:36
5:36
5:37
5:37
5:38
5:39
5:40
 mm
Temp °C
12
12
10
14
16
13
15
15
12
13
13
11
13
16
13
16
16
14
14
16
14
Feels °C
10
9
6
13
14
8
9
11
8
9
9
7
11
13
10
13
12
12
12
13
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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