Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 03 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.6°C
1.1° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 7 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, S swell with 1,419 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 3 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 12s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 07) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6PM (Thu 3rd Sep)4ft (1.2m) 12s
Best Surf 3AM (Tue 8th Sep)6ft (1.9m) 10s
Most Powerful 6PM (Mon 7th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Last Chance. This is a point break that really only comes alive when conditions line up, and it’s a spot for the advanced crew. The water is sitting at 55° right now, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, something to keep in mind.

The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that are gonna get the heart racing. First up, Thursday the 3rd, we've got a nice solid push. The morning is looking clean with a 5ft south-southeast groundswell, a 13-second period, and that cross-off wind from the north-northwest. There’s moderate wave energy in the water (900), and the combo of size and clear skies makes for very good surf. That’s your best bet for the near term. The afternoon stays fun but drops a bit to 4ft with a light cross breeze.

The surf then backs right off through Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th. Friday has small, weak 3ft swell, and Saturday morning is tiny at 2ft. That glassy 2ft on Saturday morning is surfable, but it’s very ordinary. We’re looking at a few days of nothing much to write home about.

Sunday the 6th is small, but a sneaky long-period 17-second groundswell pops in the afternoon at a weak 1ft. It’s not much to get on, but the period is interesting. Then Monday the 7th gets a bit of a spike with a 8ft south swell in the afternoon, but it’s only 7 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph. That’s messy and only marginal.

Now, the real standout. Mark your calendars for Friday the 11th. The morning hits with a clean 8ft south swell, 8-second period, and strong wave energy pushing 988. But the afternoon, oh boy. Glassy conditions, a 3ft south swell with a 20-second period. That is a very long-period groundswell, packing a lot of energy for its size (875). For a point break like Last Chance, that long period is a huge positive, meaning long, lined-up walls. It’s not huge, but the quality will be top-notch.

The following weekend gets dramatic. Saturday the 12th sees a massive 8ft swell with an incredible 2971 energy reading, but it’s accompanied by a strong breeze of 28 mph. That’s a washing machine for all but the maddest experts. Then Sunday the 13th morning is the next big ticket. Glassy conditions again, a solid 8ft south groundswell with a 13-second period and very strong energy (2012). The data calls it excellent for experienced surfers, and I’m not arguing. That’s a big, clean, powerful point break session, but at this size, it’s strictly for the pros.

After that, the second week has some promising signals. Wednesday the 16th afternoon brings a very good 5ft south-southeast swell with a 12-second period and solid energy (925) under light winds. Thursday the 17th has a bigger 7ft south-southeast swell with a long 14-second period, but offshore winds are a fresh 19 mph. It’ll be clean and powerful, but again, big and windy for the advanced only. The outlook for the 18th shows a clean 4ft south swell with a 17-second period – long-period groundswell again – but it’s a bit smaller and more marginal for a big session.

Overall, the best on offer is the glassy Sunday the 13th morning for the experienced crew, and the super clean, long-period Friday the 11th afternoon if you want quality over raw size. Keep an eye out, the long-range stuff on the 17th and 18th looks promising but less certain. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the NW by Mon night).

Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
S
13
1.3
SSE
13
1
S
12
0.8
SSE
11
0.6
S
10
0.4
SSE
10
0.7
S
8
0.7
S
8
0.6
S
8
0.7
S
10
0.4
S
17
0.5
S
17
1
NNE
8
2.3
S
7
2.1
S
10
1.7
SSE
10
1.5
SSE
9
1.2
SSE
9
1.2
SSE
9
1
SSE
9
0.8
SSE
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
892
572
284
156
74
31
64
69
51
104
92
142
133
539
890
563
360
237
242
172
99
Wind (km/h)
5
NNW
10
NNE
10
NW
15
NNW
25
NNW
10
WNW
5
N
15
NE
10
NW
10
NW
20
NNW
20
N
10
WNW
30
SSW
20
SW
15
N
10
NW
25
SW
15
WSW
20
NE
5
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
9:59AM1.73m
10:30PM1.68m
10:50AM1.74m
11:22PM1.67m
11:46AM1.74m
00:17AM1.65m
12:46PM1.73m
1:15AM1.63m
1:45PM1.73m
2:15AM1.61m
2:43PM1.74m
3:14AM1.61m
3:41PM1.74m
Low Tide
4:20PM0.25m
4:42AM0.24m
5:13PM0.25m
5:34AM0.23m
6:09PM0.23m
6:29AM0.21m
7:08PM0.21m
7:26AM0.19m
8:07PM0.18m
8:26AM0.16m
9:05PM0.15m
9:27AM0.13m
10:02PM0.13m
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:28
6:26
6:24
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
 mm
3
5
3
Temp °C
17
19
15
16
17
14
14
14
12
15
17
17
15
11
10
13
15
11
12
13
12
Feels °C
14
16
11
12
13
10
11
10
9
11
12
13
13
5
4
10
12
7
9
8
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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