
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 16s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, S swell with 4,813 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 15s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 1.3m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's cookin' at Last Chance.
Alright, so we've got a bit of a slow start here. The first week is pretty mellow, but there's a real treat waiting for us towards the end of the second week, with some serious size and energy on the way. The standout session is going to be a beauty.
Let's start with Sunday morning, the 12th of July. We're looking at a clean, chest to shoulder high swell at 3 ft from the south, with a very long period of 15 seconds. The wind is a light cross-off from the WSW at 15 km/h, so the face will be groomed. The combined energy is a solid moderate 527. It's a nice, clean start.
Monday, the 13th, we see a little drop, but still a clean 3 ft from the south on Monday morning. Wind is cross-off from the north at 15 km/h. By Monday afternoon, things get a bit messy with a cross-shore wind. The swell drops further into Tuesday, with only a tiny 2 ft left. Wednesday is glassy but flat, with only 1 ft.
Thursday, the 16th, we get a bit of a pulse. The morning is a small, clean 2 ft with an offshore wind, but the afternoon brings a bigger 2 ft swell from the ESE with a very long 18-second period and a cross-off wind. The energy is moderate at 340. It's clean, but still small.
Now, for the good stuff. Friday, the 17th of July. This is the one to circle. The afternoon session is firing. We've got a 5 ft swell from the ESE with a 15-second period. The wind is glassy from the SSE at just 5 km/h. The combined energy is a strong 1175. For an advanced spot like this, that is perfect. Clean, lined-up, and powerful. This is the standout of the whole 16-day window. Get in the water.
Saturday, the 18th, it's similar size but with a moderate breeze. It's still clean, but not as perfect as Friday.
Then we get into some serious water. Starting Monday, the 20th, the swell kicks up to 8 ft from the ESE. This is getting big, but the Monday morning session has a light offshore, so it could be an incredible, powerful day for the experienced crew. The energy is up at 1254. From Tuesday the 21st onwards, it gets huge. We're looking at 15 ft to 20 ft swells. This is expert-only territory. The combined energy hits 11284 on Tuesday afternoon. The forecast says the swell is too big for this break, so unless you're a gun on a massive day, it's a spectacle from the cliff. This big swell continues through to the 27th of July. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.
So, to wrap it up: the first few days are slow, but hang tight for the Friday the 17th afternoon glass-off. That's the pick of the fortnight.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Sat 18 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | S 15 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | S 11 | ESE 9 | S 13 | S 12 | E 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 13 | E 14 | ESE 18 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 20 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
377 | 272 | 176 | 210 | 144 | 98 | 123 | 72 | 49 | 33 | 40 | 38 | 57 | 107 | 182 | 844 | 1133 | 1121 | 1257 | 1083 | 1808 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:46AM1.73m | 3:16PM1.84m | 3:46AM1.75m | 4:14PM1.90m | 4:46AM1.78m | 5:14PM1.94m | 5:45AM1.79m | 6:14PM1.96m | 6:44AM1.79m | 7:11PM1.96m | 7:42AM1.78m | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:58AM0.26m | 9:39PM0.25m | 10:00AM0.22m | 10:38PM0.19m | 11:01AM0.15m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:59AM0.08m | 00:36AM0.09m | 12:53PM0.04m | 1:34AM0.06m | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | ||||||||
— | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | |
— | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 8 |
Temp °C | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | E 10 | NE 6 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 13 | E 14 | E 14 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 |
377 | 227 | 168 | 210 | 121 | 88 | 57 | 38 | 49 | 13 | 40 | 38 | 57 | 107 | 134 | 844 | 1133 | 1121 | 1257 | 1083 | 841 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | ESE 10 | NE 5 | NE 5 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 18 | SSE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | S 12 | S 24 | S 20 |
339 | 272 | 176 | 172 | 144 | 98 | 123 | 72 | 24 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 34 | 182 | 80 | 52 | 38 | 28 | 178 | 1808 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 6 | S 6 | — | — | NE 12 | E 12 | E 15 | NE 5 | E 12 | S 9 | S 16 | NE 5 | ENE 5 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 21 | SSW 11 | — |
17 | 28 | 40 | — | — | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 24 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 6 | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 3 | NE 4 | — | — | — | — | W 2 | SW 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 11 | S 6 |
60 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 96 | 77 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 88 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











