
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with 3,577 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 10 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 7s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 2s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 16s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 12) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 3ft (0.9m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the forecast for Last Chance. It’s a bit of a mixed bag coming up, so let’s break it down.
We start off pretty quiet. Thursday the 10th is looking flat and ordinary, with a small 3ft swell from the southeast and weak energy (98). The water’s sitting at 55°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there. Friday the 11th is similar – not much to get excited about, even the new south swell that’s pushing through is small and has a long period of 19 seconds, but the size just isn’t there.
Then we’ve got a bit of a lull, a dry spell, from Saturday the 12th through most of next week. There's a pulse of south swell on Saturday afternoon (4ft, 16 seconds) but the wind is messy and it’s going to be cross-chop. Sunday morning the 13th is where things finally turn on. We see a jump in size to 8ft from the south, with a 15-second period and a moderate energy reading of 2707. The wind is offshore and clean, making it a standout for experienced surfers. That’s the best you’re going to get this week. That afternoon it drops and gets cross-shore, so the magic is short-lived. The rest of that week into the 20th is pretty grim - small, inconsistent, and often onshore. It's a long stretch of waiting.
Now, looking further ahead to the 21st of September, things start looking promising again. Monday morning shows a solid 5ft south swell with light offshore or cross-offshore winds and a strong energy reading (852). It looks clean and very good. Tuesday the 22nd has another pulse, with the afternoon pushing back up to 8ft from the south, but it’s a bit cross-shore, so it won’t be as perfect. Wednesday the 23rd keeps that size around 8ft in the morning, but the wind is cross-off, which is still workable. The afternoon cleans up with a moderate offshore wind and a 6ft swell, which is also very good.
So, honestly, the standout windows are Sunday morning the 13th for the big, clean power, and then Monday the 21st through Wednesday the 23rd for a more extended run of solid, surfable waves. Expect crowds to be possible at this point, as it’s a fairly consistent spot when it turns on. These longer-range calls are promising, but remember, we’re a week or more out, so don’t book your flights just yet. It’s all about timing.
That’s the story from here.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | SE 8 | S 16 | S 19 | S 18 | S 17 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
79 | 57 | 75 | 114 | 234 | 214 | 204 | 628 | 3114 | 2686 | 1442 | 1103 | 776 | 799 | 390 | 221 | 125 | 117 | 121 | 78 | 13 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross | cross | off | cross | off | cross | cross-on | off | glassy | on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:37PM1.75m | 5:08AM1.63m | 5:33PM1.75m | 6:03AM1.67m | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | 7:45AM1.75m | 8:04PM1.73m | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:25AM0.11m | 10:59PM0.13m | 11:19AM0.11m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | 1:52PM0.24m | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | ||||||||
6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | |
— | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | |
mm | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 1 |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 8 | S 7 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 13 | S 13 | S 10 |
79 | 57 | 37 | 37 | 113 | 50 | 204 | 628 | 3114 | 2686 | 1442 | 1103 | 776 | 799 | 390 | 221 | 125 | 117 | 121 | 78 | 7 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 8 | S 16 | S 14 | S 18 | S 17 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | E 8 | NE 12 | E 8 | NE 4 | S 16 | S 15 | N 3 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | S 13 |
12 | 12 | 75 | 57 | 234 | 214 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 13 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | S 19 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | ENE 13 | ENE 13 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | ENE 9 | ENE 12 | E 15 | NE 12 | E 10 | E 9 | ENE 13 | ENE 12 | SE 11 | SE 10 | NE 12 |
6 | 5 | 9 | 114 | 21 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 2 | — | — | S 6 | — | — | SSW 6 | S 6 | — | — | S 3 | — | — | NE 3 | NNE 4 | W 3 | — | WNW 3 | — | NNW 2 | SSW 4 |
1 | — | — | 72 | — | — | 36 | 108 | — | — | 8 | — | — | 4 | 10 | 1 | — | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 88 | 149 | 11 | 0 | 188 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










