Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, cobber, this is Rusty. I’ve been staring at the charts for Last Chance, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag to be honest. We’ve got a proper few days of action coming up, but we’re also looking at a real dry spell after that.

The first call is Wednesday morning. It’s not a pretty one, though. We’ve got a solid 15ft of south swell rolling in, with a 12-second period. That’s a lot of juice, and the combined energy is reading a massive 5898, which is strong to very strong. But, the wind is a cross-off from the SSW at 25 mph, and honestly, the call is that it’s just too big for this point. It’s an advanced break, but even they’ll be scratching their heads. The water is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, sitting at 55°F, which is about a degree off the norm. It’s not a complete write-off, but I’d be watching from the cliff.

Thursday sees the swell drop a bit, but it’s still messy. Morning is 10ft from the south, and the afternoon drops to 6ft. The wind stays cross-off, but it’s not a standout day. The scores are low, and it’s just one of those days where you’re fighting the conditions.

Now, Friday morning is the first real gem. The swell drops to a clean 3ft from the SSE with a long, 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell. The wind is glassy, just a slight air from the NNW. This is where this point will shine. Long period swells like this are perfect for a point break, giving you those long, racy walls. The energy is still moderate at 1356, but the conditions are prime. This is for the experienced crew, but it’ll be worth it.

Saturday morning is also decent. Similar size, 6ft from the SSE, but the period has dropped to 12 seconds. Still glassy in the morning, which is great. It’s a touch more size on it, but the quality is still there. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-on breeze, so make the most of the morning.

Sunday is where it starts to fade. The swell drops to 4ft and the wind goes cross-shore, creating some chop. It’s not great, and the afternoon is a write-off. Monday and Tuesday are pretty flat and ordinary, with small waves and poor conditions. The energy is weak, and you’re just hoping for a bump.

From Wednesday the 13th through to the 15th, it’s a proper lull. We’re looking at tiny waves, under 3ft, with weak energy. There’s a bit of offshore wind on the 14th, but there’s just no swell to push it. This is the kind of stretch where you check the forecast and go back to bed.

Now, hold on. The 16th has a bit of a pulse. Sunday the 16th looks promising. The morning shows 3ft of south swell with a very long 19-second period. The wind is a gentle offshore from the west, and the energy is moderate at 691. The comment says "very good surf conditions." Then the afternoon keeps it around 3ft with a 16-second period and a light cross-off breeze. This is a promising window, but it's a week and a half out, so keep your expectations in check. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising, but not certain.

The 17th has some more size, up to 4ft, but the period drops. The morning is a bit poor, but the afternoon with a solid offshore wind from the west looks okay.

But then it gets sketchy again. The 18th and 19th see the swell jump up, but the period drops right off to 6 and 7 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. It’s got size, up to 8ft on the 19th, and it's clean, but with that short period, it's going to be a mess. It might be more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers. That short-period, big swell on a point is just going to be lumpy and hard to ride.

So, the standout here is Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th in the morning. Clean, glassy, with proper long-period swell. The Sunday the 16th is a long-range hope, but don’t book your flights yet. The rest is a waiting game.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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