
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 6,497 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 4 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Last Chance. This is a point break for advanced surfers only, so don’t even think about paddling out if you’re not on your game. It’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, and it likes a NE direction best. The water’s sitting at 55°F which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good hood and booties.
The week starts off ordinary. Monday the 3rd has a weak 4ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, with a light cross-onshore breeze and wave energy sitting at 498 – that’s weak, and the conditions are marginal. Tuesday the 4th picks up a fair bit, but it’s not the kind of day you want to be out there. We’ve got a 10ft S swell at 14 seconds in the morning, jumping to 13ft in the afternoon, but the wind is howling from the SSW at 22 to 25 mph. It’s cross-off, so it’s clean, but that’s a lot of power for a point break. The combined energy is 3727 and 3757 – that’s strong to very strong. That’s expert-only territory, and even then it’s a handful.
Wednesday the 5th is the standout. Morning brings a 15ft S swell at 12 seconds, with a SSW wind at 25 mph, and the combined energy is a massive 6215 – that’s very strong. The forecast says it’s too big for this break, and honestly, for a point break that’s a serious call. This is for the top-end crew only. The afternoon drops to 13ft, but still not for the faint-hearted. Thursday the 6th still has size, with 10ft and 7ft swells, but the wind stays fresh and cross-off.
Friday the 7th morning is a beautiful moment. The swell drops to 6ft from the SSE at 10 seconds, and the wind turns glassy from the north at 3 mph. Combined energy is 920 – moderate. That’s clean, glassy surf, and for a point break that’s about as good as it gets. The afternoon turns onshore, so get in early. Saturday the 8th is another solid option with a 6ft SSE swell at 12 seconds, light NW cross-off wind, and energy of 1135. The morning is excellent for experienced surfers, and the afternoon stays clean and fun.
After that, it tails off. Sunday the 9th has a small 4ft swell with light offshore wind, so it’s clean but small. Monday the 10th morning is similar, but by the afternoon it turns poor. From Tuesday the 11th all the way through to Saturday the 15th, it’s a grim run. The swell drops to 3ft and under, winds are onshore and strong, and the energy is weak – below 250. The water might be a bit cold, but that’s the least of your worries. The surf is poor, and there’s nothing to recommend.
Sunday the 16th brings a slight pulse back, with a 5ft NE swell at 6 seconds – short period, so it’s not the best shape – but the wind is moderate and cross-off. The energy is 329, weak. The following Monday and Tuesday offer some small clean waves, but nothing to get excited about. The best of the whole run is without a doubt Wednesday the 5th for the big-swell adrenaline junkies, and Friday the 7th morning for the cleaner, more manageable session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 14 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
345 | 439 | 3714 | 3751 | 5119 | 6215 | 4475 | 2929 | 2301 | 867 | 776 | 615 | 917 | 1393 | 920 | 725 | 401 | 322 | 250 | 227 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | |||||||
— | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | |
5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 14 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 9 | -1 | -2 | -4 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | — | — | ESE 16 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
345 | 439 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | — | 26 | 1689 | 867 | 776 | 615 | 446 | 1393 | 920 | 725 | 401 | 322 | 250 | 227 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | SSW 6 | SE 14 | — | — | — | — | NE 18 | ESE 16 | S 11 | ESE 13 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | ESE 12 | SE 12 | E 13 | SSE 15 | E 12 | SE 14 | NNE 5 |
84 | 15 | 7 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 24 | 237 | 66 | 246 | 917 | 77 | 89 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 46 | 3 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 20 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 18 | E 17 | E 16 | SSE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 14 | S 16 | NE 13 | E 11 | E 13 | NE 5 | E 12 |
69 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | 59 | 114 | 8 | 126 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 7 | S 14 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NE 4 | — | SSW 4 |
— | 84 | 3714 | 3751 | 5119 | 6215 | 4475 | 2929 | 2301 | 1027 | 471 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | 8 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 0 | 90 | 149 | 160 | 106 | 102 | 86 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











