Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 07 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.0°C
0.7° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 7 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with 3,144 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 7s period and expected on Friday (Sep 11) at 6PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Wed 9th Sep)6ft (1.8m) 8s
Best Surf 3AM (Sun 13th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s
Most Powerful 6AM (Sun 13th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Looks like we’ve got a bit of a wait, then a real cracker of a Sunday lined up for Last Chance. This point break is an advanced wave, exposed and needing a NE swell to fire, so we’re playing a long game. The first week is mostly a write-off with tiny, weak swell or messy wind. Hold tight.

Tuesday the 8th is a no-go: 10ft of bumpy, short-period SSE windswell with a 22 mph cross-off wind – better off watching from the cliff. Wednesday the 9th morning cleans up nicely. Light offshore wind from the west at 3 mph and a drop to 5ft from the SE, period a short 8 seconds, but the combined energy is moderate (324). The water temperature is about average for this time of year. It’s surfable, clean, but not special.

Thursday the 10th is flat. Drop down to 3ft in the morning, then 2ft in the afternoon with glassy conditions – lovely to look at, but barely a ripple.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are tiny – we’re talking 1ft to 2ft of long-period S swell (17-19 seconds), so the energy is weak to moderate (around 171 to 158). Paddling out would be a waiting game with nothing to ride.

Then the real standout hits. Sunday the 13th is the best on offer. Morning session brings 8ft of S groundswell with a very long 16-second period. That’s a strong event with combined energy hitting 2812. Add a light 6 mph cross-off wind from the WNW, and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. This is solid, powerful stuff – too big for beginners, perfect for those who know the point. The afternoon holds at 7ft with the same period and energy at 2048. Expect a few out there, as crowds are sometimes an issue here.

Monday the 14th morning is still clean and glassy with 5ft of S swell, period 13 seconds, energy moderate at 705. “Very good surf conditions”. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze, chopping it up a bit.

Tuesday the 15th through Wednesday the 16th fades quickly. Swell drops below 4ft, winds turn fresh on Wednesday, and it’s back to poor.

Another big pulse appears on Friday the 18th. Morning shows 8ft of S swell, period 11 seconds, combined energy 1426, with a moderate offshore wind from the WNW. “Excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – that’s a big, clean swell. This is a long-range call though, so treat it as promising but less certain. Saturday the 19th morning holds 7ft but with a 19 mph cross-off wind, making it marginal.

After that, it’s a slow slide into small, ordinary waves through to the end of the 23rd, with nothing worth chasing.

So, short story: hold out for Sunday the 13th, and keep an eye on Friday the 18th for a possible second punch. Everything else is a flat spell or a big mess.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Mon night, calm by Thu afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
1
2
2
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
1
1
4
4
4
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SSE
9
3
SSE
9
2.2
SE
8
2
SE
8
1.6
SE
8
1.4
SE
8
1.1
SE
8
0.9
SE
8
0.7
SE
8
0.3
S
15
0.4
S
19
0.4
SE
7
0.5
S
18
0.5
S
17
1.7
S
6
2.4
S
13
2.4
S
16
2
S
16
1.6
S
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1514
1324
687
517
306
268
155
82
57
42
117
18
150
142
219
1821
2791
2028
1164
Wind (km/h)
45
SSW
35
SSW
30
SW
15
SW
5
W
15
E
15
NW
15
NW
0
NNE
15
NNW
20
W
25
SSW
5
NW
5
W
15
SSW
5
WNW
10
WNW
15
SW
20
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:15AM1.61m
2:43PM1.74m
3:14AM1.61m
3:41PM1.74m
4:12AM1.62m
4:37PM1.75m
5:08AM1.63m
5:33PM1.75m
6:03AM1.67m
6:25PM1.75m
6:56AM1.71m
7:15PM1.74m
Low Tide
8:26AM0.16m
9:05PM0.15m
9:27AM0.13m
10:02PM0.13m
10:25AM0.11m
10:59PM0.13m
11:19AM0.11m
11:53PM0.14m
12:11PM0.13m
00:45AM0.17m
1:02PM0.18m
1:33AM0.22m
heavy rain
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:18
6:16
6:16
6:13
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
 mm
26
2
1
1
3
1
4
Temp °C
11
10
11
11
11
12
11
15
16
12
11
10
9
12
12
11
15
16
13
Feels °C
4
3
5
6
8
8
7
13
15
9
6
4
6
8
8
9
13
12
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Last Chance:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest