Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 16 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.6°C
1.3° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 20 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, S swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, S swell with 2,713 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 16 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 10s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 12s period and expected on Monday (Sep 21) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Wed 16th Sep)2.5ft (0.8m) 10s
Best Surf 9PM (Sun 20th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 11s
Most Powerful 9AM (Mon 21st Sep)10ft (3.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Hey, it’s Rusty. Let’s talk surf. The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag – a slow start, a big burst in the middle, then it fades out quick. Don’t bother checking the waves until later in the week.

Starting at Last Chance (point) – Wednesday morning the 16th has a small 3ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, glassy with light south winds. Water’s at 55°F, a bit colder than normal for this time of year – not freezing, but you’ll want a decent suit. That morning is the only clean one on Wednesday; the afternoon gets lumpy.

Thursday the 17th drops to about 3ft ESE, cross-off but not great. Friday the 18th has a moderate energy bump (366), but the morning is chopped up. The afternoon clears up, glassy with a 12-second period and 3ft – a decent little session if you’re itching.

Saturday the 19th is a mess – strong 30 km/h cross-off in the morning, then the afternoon throws up 10ft of short-period south swell with 35 km/h winds. That’s not surfable, that’s just chaos. Sunday the 20th starts tiny, but the afternoon brings a strong pulse – 10ft at 8 seconds, combined energy of 1181. It’s big but raw and windblown.

Now, the one to circle – Monday the 21st. Morning is glassy, light NNE breeze, and 10ft of south groundswell at 12 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 2713 – that’s very strong. The point will be handling it beautifully for advanced surfers. It’s a serious paddle, but the sets will be clean and powerful. That’s the best on offer, hands down. The afternoon gets cross-on and choppy, so hit it early.

After that, the swell backs way off. Tuesday the 22nd is small and cross-shore – not worth it. Wednesday the 23rd has 6ft of short-period south, but it’s wind-affected and junky. Thursday the 24th is better – 6ft S at 9 seconds in the morning, then cleaner 5ft in the afternoon with cross-off winds. Decent, but nothing like Monday.

Friday the 25th starts glassy with 4ft S at 11 seconds – really clean, light winds. A lovely morning session. The afternoon gets a bit onshore. Saturday the 26th is mostly cross-on and small – skip it. Sunday the 27th has a tiny 2ft S swell with a long 17-second period, but it’s weak. The afternoon sees 3ft with offshore wind – marginal.

The end of the run – Tuesday the 29th – is small and cross-shore. Wednesday the 30th picks up a bit with 3ft S at 7 seconds, glassy in the morning. Fun and clean, but short period, so it’ll be softer. Thursday the 1st of October morning is clean again, 3ft S at 11 seconds, light cross-off – a nice way to finish.

Second week gets quieter and more inconsistent, so don’t hold your breath after the 25th. The standout is clearly Monday the 21st – that’s the one to plan around. It’s a long-range call, so think of it as promising but not guaranteed. If you can handle it, you’ll have a day to remember. If not, stay on the sand and watch.

Rusty, out.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat night, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, near gales from the SW by Sun morning).

Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sunday
20
Monday
21
Tuesday
22
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
2
1
0
1
0
2
2
0
1
2
0
1
3
4
1
3
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SSE
9
0.9
SE
9
0.9
ESE
12
0.9
ESE
10
0.8
ESE
9
0.8
ESE
11
1
ESE
12
0.9
ESE
12
0.8
ESE
12
0.8
ESE
12
1.5
S
7
0.7
S
14
0.5
S
12
3
S
8
3
S
11
3
S
12
3
S
12
1.8
SSE
11
1.2
S
10
1
S
8
1.8
S
6
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
172
132
231
171
113
130
304
207
174
150
211
199
74
1107
2276
2713
2246
763
267
144
272
Wind (km/h)
5
S
15
E
5
WNW
15
NNW
20
N
15
NNE
15
NE
5
NW
10
W
30
WSW
15
S
20
WNW
30
WSW
35
SW
25
WSW
5
NNE
20
ENE
5
WNW
10
NNE
10
NNE
30
WSW
Wind State
glassy
on
off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
glassy
off
cross-off
cross
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
9:14AM1.76m
9:39PM1.68m
9:58AM1.72m
10:25PM1.64m
10:45AM1.66m
11:11PM1.59m
11:34AM1.60m
11:55PM1.52m
12:25PM1.54m
00:41AM1.44m
1:14PM1.49m
1:29AM1.38m
2:00PM1.46m
2:18AM1.35m
Low Tide
3:31PM0.34m
3:51AM0.39m
4:19PM0.39m
4:38AM0.42m
5:05PM0.42m
5:24AM0.45m
5:53PM0.44m
6:09AM0.46m
6:41PM0.45m
6:53AM0.45m
7:29PM0.44m
7:39AM0.44m
8:15PM0.41m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
thunderstorm
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:07
6:05
6:05
6:03
6:01
6:00
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:59
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
6:04
 mm
1
3
1
1
1
Temp °C
14
15
13
17
17
14
14
14
12
13
14
15
15
10
9
12
13
12
18
21
13
Feels °C
12
12
11
12
13
11
12
14
11
8
11
11
9
2
4
8
8
9
15
18
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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