Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a solid run of surf ahead at Last Chance over the next week, but it’s not for everyone – this is advanced territory. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so a good 4/3 is going to be your best mate.

The first real standout hits on Sunday, August 2nd. Morning glass-off with a light offshore breeze from the west, and a clean 8ft swell coming from the SSE with a 12-second period. The combined energy is pumping at 1784 (moderate to strong energy). This is excellent surf for those with the skills. The afternoon holds up nicely too, dropping to 7ft, still clean, with a cross-off wind. This is the pick of the bunch early on.

Monday morning, August 3rd, is still very good – 5ft from the SSE, offshore wind from the WNW, and clean. By the afternoon, the wind swings onshore and it gets a bit scrappy, so aim for the early.

Things get serious on Tuesday, August 4th. A big 10ft groundswell rolls in from the S with a very long 15-second period. The energy is huge at 3834. But – and this is a big but – the wind is cranking at 25 mph from the SSW. For a point break like Last Chance, that long-period swell is going to be lining up nicely, but the strong breeze will make it challenging. This is only for experts. By the afternoon, the swell hits 13ft, and with the same strong wind, it’s messy and too big for most.

Wednesday, August 5th, is the biggest of the run. A 15ft swell from the S, period at 12 seconds, and the combined energy rockets to 5793 (strong to very strong). The wind is still strong cross-off. This is another one that’s strictly for the pros at an advanced spot. The afternoon drops to 12ft but the wind sticks around.

The rest of the first week, from Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 8th, sees the swell slowly backing off from 8ft down to 6ft. The real gem is Saturday, August 8th, morning. The wind goes glassy – a light NW breeze at 3 mph – and the swell is a clean 6ft from the SSE with a nice 13-second period (1124 energy). That is as good as it gets for a clean session with no wind chop. The crowd profile says “sometimes” here, so on a Saturday with conditions like that, expect some company.

Into the second week, it gets quieter. From Sunday, August 9th, we’ve got some inconsistency. The morning has a tiny 4ft but a massive 17-second period – very long period, which at a point break can be fantastic, but the wind is light cross-shore. Not a standout. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th offer small 4-5ft swells with offshore or light winds, but the energy starts to drop. From Wednesday the 12th onward, the size drops below 3ft and the wind goes onshore and strong. By the weekend of the 15th, it’s a write-off – lumpy, onshore, and tiny.

The very last chance to grab something is on Sunday, August 16th afternoon, when the wind goes glassy again, and the swell is 3ft from the SE (297 energy). Not big, but if you’re desperate for a clean small-wave session, it’s there.

Overall, the window is tight. The first week is serious swell, and you need experience. If you’ve got it, Saturday morning August 8th is the clear standout for quality and cleanliness. After that, it’s a slow fade into nothing.

Rusty.

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