Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 5 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 6 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 6 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, S swell with 2,897 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Thu 6th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows worth paddling out for.
The immediate future is pretty small, and we’ll be waiting through a real lull until things start to wake up. The first stretch from Thursday the 6th through Sunday the 9th is all about a fading, short-period south swell. The energy is there initially, but it’s messy and blown out. Thursday has some head-high sets around 10ft but it's coming with a strong cross-off wind that’s going to make it lumpy. The wave energy is serious (4214), but it’s not worth the fight. Friday morning drops way down to 3ft, but it’s glassy and that long 17-second period from the SSE will have some push to it. That’s the best of this early run, but still only a shadow of what’s coming.
Honestly, from Sunday afternoon through to the middle of next week, it’s flat and quiet. Swell energy drops off hard, down into the low hundreds, and there’s nothing to get excited about. We’re looking at a several-day dry spell until things shift.
Then, the real story arrives on Tuesday the 18th. A big pulse of SE swell will slam the coast. This is a big one. For a break like Last Chance (Bay of Plenty), which is an exposed point, we’re looking at a solid 16ft of swell with a period of 11 seconds. The energy is enormous, over 6800. But look, this is a case of too much of a good thing. It’s predicted to be too big for this spot. The wind is also howling out of the SW, and it’s just going to be a washing machine. This is not for the faint-hearted, and honestly, it’s only going to be for the most experienced chargers out there, if anyone’s brave enough.
The days after that are still big and cross-off, but it's not going to be clean. The standout window from this whole run is Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st. By Thursday morning, the swell has backed off to a very manageable 7ft, still coming from the E, with light offshore winds. The energy is still strong (1014), and with the longer-period characteristics, it’s going to have some real push. That’s clean, powerful surf and the pick of the bunch.
The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no worries there, just a normal dawny.
Crowds are sometimes an issue at Last Chance, so if you can get out there early on that Thursday, you’ll be laughing. The forecast is more reliable for the near-term; that big swell later on is still a bit of a promise, but the conditions shaping up for the end of the run look proper.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 5°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Wed night, calm by Fri morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | NNE 7 | SE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 7 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2798 | 2496 | 764 | 761 | 625 | 1103 | 1474 | 1003 | 847 | 495 | 328 | 260 | 194 | 180 | 100 | 78 | 185 | 108 | 223 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | on | off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | 2:59PM1.81m | 3:29AM1.69m | 3:57PM1.84m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | 8:41AM0.22m | 9:21PM0.19m | 9:43AM0.16m | 10:20PM0.15m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  | |  | |  | | | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 16 | SSE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | NE 6 | SE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 7 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | 41 | 1689 | 611 | 761 | 610 | 1103 | 1474 | 1003 | 847 | 495 | 328 | 260 | 194 | 68 | 100 | 78 | 185 | 108 | 223 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 18 | ESE 15 | SE 14 | SE 13 | SSE 17 | SSE 10 | ESE 11 | SSE 16 | E 13 | E 14 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | E 12 | SSE 10 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SE 12 | SE 11 | NE 7 |
| kJ | 12 | 23 | 92 | 265 | 625 | 512 | 24 | 107 | 4 | 4 | 121 | 158 | 12 | 130 | 16 | 14 | 83 | 96 | 7 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | E 18 | NE 17 | S 20 | SE 13 | SE 12 | NE 14 | SE 12 | NE 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | S 16 | SE 12 | NE 7 | NE 7 | S 19 |
| kJ | — | 6 | 12 | 8 | 193 | 157 | 8 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 12 | 7 | 7 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | N 3 | NE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 7 | — | S 4 | SSW 7 | — | — |
| kJ | 2798 | 2496 | 764 | 622 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 180 | — | 9 | 96 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 86 | 86 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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