Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Issued: 5 am 06 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.2° C

1.2°C colder than average for this time of year

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, SSE swell with 4,021 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 9s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 19s. Another secondary swell of 1.6m and 8s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 8s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 9PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Mon 6th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 9s
Best Surf 6PM (Fri 10th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 11s
Most Powerful 6PM (Fri 10th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, boys and girls, Rusty here. We’ve got a wild ride on the table for Last Chance over these next couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.

The first half of the period is a bit of a tease, but by the second week, things get real interesting. There’s a gap of a few days at the start with no real action, so we kick off on Monday, July 6th. The first call is for Monday morning, but honestly, it’s a dud – only 5ft of weak, short-period (8 seconds) ENE windswell, blowing across from the NNE at 9 mph. That’s a cross-shore mess, and with the water temp sitting at 56°, about a degree and a half colder than normal for July, you’ll want a thick wetsuit just to sit there. Not worth the paddle.

But hold onto your board, because things clean right up on Tuesday, July 7th. Tuesday afternoon is a standout: clear skies, glassy conditions with a 3 mph south breeze, and a solid 6ft easterly groundswell at 10 seconds. The combined energy is cranking at 741 (moderate), and the offshore wind direction is favorable. This is the kind of session you wake up thinking about – smooth, lined-up, and begging for a carve. It’s a point break that’s fairly consistent, so expect some company, but the quality will be worth sharing the peak.

We roll into Wednesday and Thursday with consistent 5ft to 7ft easterly swell, still with clean cross-off winds from the southwest. The energy is solid (921 on Wednesday morning), but the breeze picks up to 9–12 mph, so it’s not as glassy as Tuesday. Still, good waves on offer for anyone who knows the point.

Then Friday, July 10th, the swell jumps up to a beastly 15ft from the SSE with a 10-second period, but it comes with a 28 mph southerly crosswind. The combined energy is a massive 3687 (strong), but the ocean is a chaotic, choppy mess. This is not for the faint of heart – only for experts, and honestly, with that wind, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind backs off by Saturday, but the swell is still a heavy 10ft from the SSE, with 19 mph winds. Still expert-only territory.

After that, the swell drops back down into the 5ft to 8ft range from Sunday, July 12th, through the middle of the following week, but the wind stays messy and cross-shore. Not worth planning around.

Now, mark your calendars for Saturday, July 18th. We’ve got a new push from the south: 7ft at 9 seconds, with a light 6 mph offshore west wind. The combined energy is 887 (moderate to strong), and conditions are clean. This is a solid, surfable day, but it’s the calm before the storm.

Because the real standout – and I mean the one you don’t miss – is Sunday, July 19th. We’re talking about a 23ft southerly groundswell with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy? A staggering 34360 (very strong). The wind goes glassy from the west at 3 mph in the morning. But here’s the truth: 23ft is too big for this break. This is a point break, and with a 14-second period, it will be a freight train of energy. For the absolute elite – the chargers – this could be the session of a lifetime. For everyone else, stand on the cliff and watch the show. The afternoon drops to 18ft, still massive, but with a light cross-onshore. The energy is still through the roof (11736). Do not take this lightly.

Things stay big and messy after that, with 12ft+ waves and fresh onshore winds from the NE from Monday, July 20th, into Tuesday. These are poor conditions, not for paddling. Kite surfers might have a field day, though.

Overall, the best on offer is Tuesday afternoon, July 7th, for clean, fun waves, and the epic-but-ominous Sunday, July 19th, for the big-wave crew. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 32mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Fri morning, light winds from the SSW by Sat night).

Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
0
0
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
ENE
8
2.5
NE
8
1.7
E
9
1.6
E
9
1.8
E
10
2
E
10
2
E
10
2
E
10
1.7
E
10
1.6
E
10
1.7
S
10
3.5
SSE
10
4.5
SSE
10
4
SSE
10
4
SSE
11
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
9
2.5
SE
9
2.3
SE
10
2.1
SE
10
1.8
SE
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
290
828
473
441
610
755
818
832
575
500
573
2047
3616
3380
3184
1712
1318
995
1090
934
531
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
10
E
5
WSW
5
WSW
5
S
15
WSW
15
SW
15
SSW
20
SSW
20
SW
20
SSW
40
S
45
S
40
SSW
35
SSW
30
SSW
30
SSW
25
SSW
20
S
20
S
10
SSW
Wind State
cross
on
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
High Tide
10:05AM1.50m
10:30PM1.58m
10:48AM1.53m
11:16PM1.60m
11:34AM1.57m
00:04AM1.63m
12:26PM1.63m
00:54AM1.67m
1:22PM1.70m
1:49AM1.70m
2:19PM1.77m
2:46AM1.73m
3:16PM1.84m
Low Tide
4:14PM0.35m
4:46AM0.31m
5:01PM0.35m
5:32AM0.31m
5:49PM0.35m
6:18AM0.31m
6:42PM0.36m
7:07AM0.30m
7:39PM0.34m
8:00AM0.29m
8:39PM0.30m
8:58AM0.26m
9:39PM0.25m
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
heavy rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
4:58
4:59
5:00
5:00
5:00
5:01
5:01
 mm
4
10
2
4
2
12
5
2
4
2
2
3
3
Temp °C
15
12
11
11
11
10
12
12
13
13
13
13
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
11
10
Feels °C
10
8
10
10
10
8
8
9
9
9
10
7
3
2
2
3
3
4
6
6
6
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
ENE
8
1.9
ENE
9
1.7
E
9
1.6
E
9
1.8
E
10
2
E
10
2
E
10
2
E
10
1.7
E
10
1.6
E
10
1.5
E
10
1.9
E
10
0.6
E
10
0.6
E
10
1.1
E
10
1.1
E
10
0.4
S
18
2.3
SE
10
2.1
SE
10
1.8
SE
9
Energy kJ
290
522
473
441
610
755
818
832
575
500
449
683
71
73
240
244
102
1090
934
531
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
S
14
0.2
S
20
0.4
S
18
0.4
SSW
11
0.5
S
10
0.5
S
10
0.5
S
9
0.4
S
13
0.8
S
7
0.3
S
17
0.3
S
16
0.2
SSW
20
0.1
SW
22
0.3
SSW
20
0.4
S
14
0.6
S
16
0.6
S
15
0.6
S
14
Energy kJ
4
32
105
37
50
47
39
56
68
49
46
37
18
76
64
181
155
140
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
S
22
0.1
S
13
0.5
S
18
0.4
S
17
0.4
S
16
0.4
S
16
0.4
S
14
0.4
S
8
0.4
S
12
0.3
SSW
17
0.4
SSW
16
0.4
SW
20
0.3
SSW
10
0.4
SW
11
0.8
SSW
14
Energy kJ
9
3
165
92
81
76
64
21
49
55
87
97
21
29
265
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
NNE
3
2.5
NE
8
1.7
NE
8
0.7
SSW
8
1.3
S
10
1.7
S
10
3.5
SSE
10
4.5
SSE
10
4
SSE
10
4
SSE
11
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
9
2.5
SE
9
Energy kJ
3
828
389
58
305
573
2047
3616
3380
3184
1712
1318
995
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
4
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
Distance (km)
11
12
0
0
0
0
9
0
12
9
12
153
153
102
102
102
103
93
12
12
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia
Rating
(10 max)
2
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
4
3
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand
Rating
(10 max)
6
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
7
5
4
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
6
4
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
5
6
5
8
5
5
8
6
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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