Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 25 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.3° C
1.7° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, SE swell with 2,548 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period with ESE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.1m 7s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Wed 29th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 13s
Best Surf 3AM (Wed 29th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 13s
Most Powerful 3AM (Tue 28th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming down the line for Last Chance. It’s a point break that needs the right swell, and we’re in for a long wait for the real magic.

Let’s be real: the first week is a tough one to get excited about. We’ve got a few days of surfable waves, but nothing that’ll have you racing for your wetsuit. The first proper call is for Saturday afternoon the 25th, with a small 3ft easterly windswell. The water is a bit colder than average for this time of year at 54°, and the wind is offshore, so it’ll be clean. But the energy is weak (337), so it’s a small wave board kind of day.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th see a bump in size, but the wind swings cross-offshore and the swell gets a bit messy. Sunday morning hits 7ft from the south with a short period of 8 seconds, which is just a bumpy, weak wall. The energy is moderate (1118), but the quality is questionable. Monday afternoon brings a bigger 8ft swell, but it’s a short period and the wind is fresh, making it a bit of a grunt. This is definitely not for beginners.

We get a glimmer of hope on Wednesday morning the 29th. The wind swings offshore at 10 km/h, and we’ve got a solid 6ft groundswell from the ESE with a long period of 13 seconds. The energy is strong (1140). This is a good session for experienced surfers. The long period means the wave will be powerful and lined up, so it’s the best call of the first week.

The next few days are a fade-out. Thursday the 30th is clean and punchy with 5ft waves, but it’s dropping. Then from Friday the 31st through to Tuesday the 5th of August, the surf is small and inconsistent. There’s a big gap of poor conditions here. The swell drops to under 3ft, and the wind is a mess. The energy is low (321 to 185). It’s a lull, plain and simple.

But hold on. The second week rewards the patient. Wednesday morning the 5th of August is a standout. We’re looking at a proper 12ft swell from the south, with a moderate 11-second period. The wind is offshore and light, so it’ll be clean. The energy is massive (3311). This is a big, powerful point break swell. It’s only for experts – 12ft is serious territory. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

We get a second wind on Friday the 7th of August. Glassy conditions – zero wind – and a 12ft swell from the south. The energy is massive (4005). This is the best of the lot. Perfect, clean conditions with a massive, long-period groundswell. It’s a dream for a point break. If you can handle the size, this is the day.

After that, the swell backs off through the weekend into the 9th, but it stays clean and surfable. Sunday morning the 9th is glassy with a 5ft swell, nice and clean.

So, the best bets are clearly Wednesday the 5th and Friday the 7th of August. Morning sessions are the go. The long-range forecast is looking promising, but it’s always a bit less certain that far out. For now, I’m stoked on that August window.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Sat afternoon, min 6°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Sat
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
2
1
3
3
2
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
E
11
0.7
ESE
16
2.1
S
8
1.2
ESE
14
1.2
ESE
13
1.5
ESE
13
2.5
S
9
2.4
SSE
9
2.5
SE
13
2.4
SE
13
2.1
ESE
13
1.9
ESE
13
1.9
ESE
12
1.7
ESE
12
1.6
ESE
12
1.3
ESE
11
1.2
ESE
11
1.2
E
12
1
E
11
0.8
ESE
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
202
215
569
547
515
692
1051
878
2166
1945
1551
1116
1053
847
636
430
363
397
251
161
Wind (km/h)
25
WSW
40
SW
25
SW
25
SSW
25
SW
35
SW
35
SW
25
SSW
25
SSW
20
SSW
10
S
10
W
15
ENE
15
N
5
NNW
5
NW
15
NNW
15
N
15
N
15
N
Wind State
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
off
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
High Tide
2:51AM1.51m
3:22PM1.58m
3:37AM1.48m
4:08PM1.56m
4:23AM1.45m
4:53PM1.55m
5:09AM1.43m
5:37PM1.55m
5:56AM1.42m
6:22PM1.55m
6:43AM1.44m
7:06PM1.57m
Low Tide
8:50PM0.50m
9:04AM0.48m
9:37PM0.50m
9:53AM0.48m
10:23PM0.49m
10:40AM0.45m
11:08PM0.46m
11:24AM0.41m
11:53PM0.41m
12:05PM0.37m
00:38AM0.36m
12:47PM0.33m
1:23AM0.32m
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
light rain
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
light rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:16
7:16
7:15
7:13
7:13
7:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:13
5:14
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:16
 mm
3
6
1
1
1
1
Temp °C
11
9
10
10
9
9
10
10
11
11
11
12
12
10
14
15
10
13
15
12
Feels °C
5
1
4
3
2
1
2
3
5
5
8
10
8
6
11
12
5
9
11
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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