Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, S swell with 3,355 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 2 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.3m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.4m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 11s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 8ft (2.4m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, surf faithful, Rusty here with the full rundown for the next couple of weeks. It’s a proper mixed bag, with a couple of moments that’ll get the heart pumping and some long flat spells to test your patience. The ocean’s got a plan, and we just gotta read it.
Overall, we start with a bang, then it flatlines for a while, before another pulse of energy arrives mid-period. The standout, the one you tell your mates about, is that first Wednesday morning. The water’s coming in a touch colder than usual for this time of year, about a degree off the norm, so don't forget the booties.
The first call to action is at Last Chance on Wednesday, September 2nd, in the morning. This is the pick of the whole forecast. We’ve got a 8ft south swell with a solid period. The wind is light out of the north, giving us a clean, off-shore breeze. The energy reading is off the Richter scale at a powerful 2570. This is proper groundswell, the kind that gets a point break like this roaring. For the advanced surfers only at this size, this is gonna be absolutely firing. Later that afternoon, the swell actually bumps up a bit and the period stretches out, but the wind swings onshore and will likely chop it to pieces.
After that first pulse, we hit a real flat and pretty in a hurry. From Friday the 4th through Monday the 7th, it’s mostly tiny. There’s barely any energy, with readings under 110, so you can ride your foamie or just watch the tide move. Good time to get the fins sorted or just chill.
We get a little bit of life back on Tuesday, September 8th. A 6ft swell arrives, but the period’s short and the wind is messy. The real standout from this next pulse is on Wednesday, September 9th, in the morning. It’s a bigger, 7ft swell with a strong energy reading of 1110. The wind is light offshore and it should be really clean. Another one for the experienced crew. By the afternoon that wind is gonna shift onshore and mess it up. Then we get another quiet stretch.
The second weekend brings a bit of a reprieve with some clean, glassy conditions. Swell around 4 to 5ft, with good periods between 13 and 14 seconds. That’s some decent shape if you can find a bank that’s holding.
Now, the long-range one that has me amped. For Monday, September 14th, in the morning, we get a significant pulse. A proper 12ft of south swell with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is light and offshore, and while the period is a bit short, the raw power is there with an energy reading of 1900. That’s a serious, serious day. This one is nearly two weeks out, so treat it as a promising possibility rather than a guarantee.
The window closes out with just some average, clean surf on Wednesday, September 16th, with a 3ft easterly swell. It’s rideable but nothing to get too worked up about.
So there you have it. Two proper windows to target: the first Wednesday morning and a week later. And that long-range Monday the 14th is a real giant if it all lines up. Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sun night, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 15 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 18 | S 17 | S 11 | NE 6 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1923 | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 572 | 284 | 123 | 75 | 31 | 17 | 50 | 41 | 98 | 57 | 142 | 21 | 6 | 1555 | 735 | 463 | 266 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | on | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | 12:46PM1.73m | 1:15AM1.63m | 1:45PM1.73m | 2:15AM1.61m | 2:43PM1.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | 6:29AM0.21m | 7:08PM0.21m | 7:26AM0.19m | 8:07PM0.18m | 8:26AM0.16m | 9:05PM0.15m | ||||||||
6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
— | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 7 | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 8 | NE 4 | S 10 | S 9 | S 17 | S 11 | NE 6 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 |
1923 | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 572 | 284 | 123 | 75 | 31 | 16 | 50 | 12 | 98 | 41 | 142 | 21 | 6 | 1555 | 735 | 463 | 266 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | NE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | NNE 4 | NE 10 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | SSW 6 | S 15 | S 9 | ENE 4 | S 18 | SW 10 | S 16 | E 9 | NE 10 | NE 10 | ENE 7 | E 15 |
639 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 3 | 57 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 9 | — | SE 11 | — | — | ENE 10 | — | NE 10 | S 16 | S 15 | ENE 10 | SSW 6 | ENE 10 | E 10 | S 8 | ENE 9 | NE 10 | — | E 16 | E 16 | E 18 |
8 | — | 5 | — | — | 10 | — | 4 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 4 | — | 5 | 5 | 6 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ENE 10 | — | — | — | N 4 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | — | — | NNE 5 | NNW 2 | N 2 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 7 | SSW 11 | — | — | SW 4 |
— | 9 | — | — | — | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | — | — | 39 | 1 | 1 | 94 | 18 | 607 | 2032 | — | — | 15 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 115 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 103 | 54 | 8 | 0 | 78 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











