
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, S swell with 3,394 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.4m 17s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 13s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 02) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Last Chance. This is a point break that likes swell from the NE, and it's exposed to whatever the ocean throws at it. The water’s sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you might want an extra layer.
The next couple of days are pretty quiet. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st have some small, clean lines but they’re really marginal. Nothing to get excited about yet. There’s a bit of a wait for the real action.
Then Saturday the 1st of August sees a jump in size, with a south swell pushing 8ft to 10ft, but it’s accompanied by a fresh breeze, making it messy and hard to manage. That’s more for the kamikaze crew or the kite surfers, honestly.
Now, Sunday the 2nd of August is where it starts to get interesting. We’ve got a solid 8ft SSE groundswell rolling in with a 12-second period. The wind is light offshore from the WSW in the morning, turning cross-off in the afternoon. The combined energy is strong (1807), and the water will be clean. This is the standout for the first week. It’s a big one, over 8ft, so this is strictly for experienced surfers. The wave quality is excellent, and with the offshore wind, it’ll be a rippable, lined-up point break. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so expect a few other keen locals out.
Monday the 3rd holds a bit of that quality, with 5ft to 6ft SSE swell and gentle offshore winds. It’s a step down in size but still very good, clean surf for the advanced crew.
Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th see another pulse of strong, long-period southerly swell (up to 8ft, 16-second period), but the wind turns onshore and fresh, making it lumpy and challenging. The energy is massive (over 2800), but the surface will be chopped up. Not the best windows.
We get a nice little break on Thursday the 6th with a 5ft SSE swell and near-glass conditions, light offshore wind. Clean and fun, with good energy (605). That’s a solid session.
Friday the 7th brings a 8ft swell but the period drops to a short, weak 6 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (519), but it’s a bit of a messy, close-outy wave. The morning is clean with offshore wind, but the afternoon turns cross-onshore.
The absolute best of the entire forecast is Saturday the 8th of August. Glassy conditions, 8ft SE swell, and a 9-second period. The combined energy is strong (1154). The wind is glassy all day. This is a serious, powerful point break session for the experienced crew. Clean, lined up, and no wind to mess it up. Expect crowds, because this is a classic.
After that, the wheels fall off. From Sunday the 9th through to the end of the outlook on Friday the 14th, the wind is all over the place – onshore, cross-onshore, lumpy, and messy. The swell is still around, 5ft to 7ft, but the surface is poor. We’ve got a solid week of dodgy conditions. The waves will be there, but you won’t want to be out in that chop.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | S 9 | S 10 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
541 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 859 | 1716 | 2870 | 1735 | 1085 | 773 | 485 | 920 | 546 | 2633 | 2850 | 3345 | 2216 | 1743 | 1016 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 6:22PM1.55m | 6:43AM1.44m | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | ||||||||
7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | |
mm | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 10 | SE 16 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 |
541 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 53 | 119 | 2870 | 1735 | 1085 | 773 | 485 | 920 | 546 | 2633 | 2850 | 3345 | 2216 | 1743 | 1016 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | NE 6 | SE 15 | SE 16 | E 11 | E 10 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | SSE 14 | S 20 | S 22 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 11 | SE 17 |
176 | 103 | 57 | 32 | 11 | 57 | 119 | 37 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 8 | 390 | 31 | 146 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 11 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 18 | NE 12 | SE 16 | SE 15 | NE 6 | NE 17 | NE 17 | NE 16 | SE 13 | NE 15 | ENE 14 | ENE 13 | ENE 13 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | NE 19 | NE 11 |
— | 6 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 62 | 8 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 6 | — | — | — | — | 14 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 6 | NW 2 | WSW 5 | S 9 | S 10 | SSW 13 | — | — | N 7 | — | W 3 | — | S 6 | — | — | — | — | NE 4 |
8 | 5 | 13 | 60 | 1 | 13 | 859 | 1716 | 3932 | — | — | 4 | — | 5 | — | 176 | — | — | — | — | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 72 | 103 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 305 | 86 | 105 | 105 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Latest Updates
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











