
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SSE swell with 4,954 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 8s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 01) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Last Chance.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a slow start. Friday the 31st of July is a write-off – tiny, messy, and not worth the paddle. The real action doesn’t fire up until the weekend. Water temp is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want that extra rubber.
The first real standout window opens on Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. We’ve got a solid 8ft swell from the SSE, with a 12-second period pushing a lot of energy (1784). The wind is light offshore from the WSW, which is going to make for some clean, lined-up waves. This is proper groundswell, and last chance is a point break, so it’ll handle that long period beautifully. The afternoon holds up too, with clean 7ft surf and a slight cross-off breeze. This is advanced territory for sure, but if you’ve got the skill, Sunday is the day to be out.
There’s a bit of a lull into Monday, with smaller 5ft surf, but still clean and fun. Then things start to get interesting again. Wednesday morning, the 5th of August, is the other big highlight. We’re looking at a solid 10ft swell from the SSE, a 14-second period, and a gentle offshore wind from the WSW. The energy is cranking at 3115 – that’s a lot of power. Again, this is for experienced surfers only, but the quality will be there. The morning session is your best bet.
The rest of the first week and into the second week is a mixed bag. Thursday the 6th offers a good morning with 6ft and offshore wind, but it gets smaller and a bit bumpy later. By Friday the 7th, the wind goes cross-on and the quality drops. The weekend of the 8th-9th sees some decent size return, but the wind isn’t as clean. An 8ft swell on Sunday the 9th has clean conditions, but the period drops to 8-9 seconds, so it’ll be a bit less organized.
After that, from Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th, we get a run of lumpy, cross-shore wind with moderate to fresh breezes. The size is there, hitting 12ft with a 12-second period on Tuesday the 11th, but the onshore chop will make it a battle. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.
The final few days, from the 13th to the 15th of August, taper off quickly. The swell drops, the wind stays messy, and by the 15th we’re looking at weak, knee-high slop. The run of poor conditions from the 10th onward is a good stretch of downtime, so don’t hold your breath for the second week.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat afternoon, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Mon afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | E 11 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSE 15 | S 15 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
161 | 116 | 1014 | 2299 | 3018 | 1735 | 1220 | 787 | 460 | 320 | 447 | 1092 | 4021 | 4224 | 3110 | 2433 | 1438 | 1000 | 770 | 550 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | |
5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Feels °C | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | SE 15 | E 10 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSE 15 | S 15 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
161 | 116 | 56 | 60 | 8 | 1735 | 1220 | 787 | 460 | 320 | 447 | 1092 | 4021 | 4224 | 3110 | 2433 | 1438 | 1000 | 770 | 550 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | SE 15 | SE 16 | E 11 | NE 16 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | ENE 14 | S 22 | S 13 | S 18 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 11 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | NE 10 | NE 10 |
36 | 57 | 119 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 21 | 37 | 30 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 4 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | NE 6 | NE 17 | NE 17 | E 10 | NE 16 | NE 15 | SE 12 | NE 13 | S 20 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | SE 18 | NE 11 | NE 11 | E 17 | E 16 |
12 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 68 | 6 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 6 | W 3 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 6 | S 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 |
15 | 3 | 1014 | 2299 | 3018 | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 0 | 72 | 103 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 63 | 31 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











