Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 27 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 17s period, S swell with 1,925 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 1.8m 17s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Mon 24th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Thu 27th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s break down Last Chance over the next couple weeks. The start’s a bit flat, but there’s some proper sessions hiding in the mix.
Sunday the 23rd is a dud – tiny swell, messy wind, and cold water at 53°F, which is well below average. Don’t bother.
Monday the 24th shows some hope. Morning has clean 4ft S swell with a light offshore breeze. Energy is moderate (299). The afternoon jumps to 5ft but with a long 15-second period from the south – real groundswell. Energy is strong (1143), but the cross-on wind chops it up a bit.
Tuesday the 25th morning is the standout. Glassy conditions, no wind, and 4ft S swell with a 13-second period. Energy is solid (486). This is as good as it gets – clean, peeling waves at this point break. The water’s still cold, but you’ll be smiling.
Wednesday 26th morning is glassy again but smaller – 2ft with a 17-second period. Clean but slow. Afternoon goes messy.
Thursday the 27th morning is a beauty. 4ft S swell, 17-second period, light cross-off wind, and strong energy (719). Expect very good conditions. The afternoon gets a bit bumpy, but the morning is worth the early wake-up.
Friday the 28th has 5ft S swell, 15-second period, and cross-off wind. Energy is high (983). Clean but big – advanced surfers only. Afternoon drops off.
Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are small and ordinary.
Monday the 31st brings a big spike. Morning has 8ft S swell with a 10-second period – that’s heavy, short-period stuff for experts only. Energy is very strong (1352). Wind is cross-off, so it might be clean, but it’s a handful. Afternoon drops to 7ft and looks much cleaner, with very good conditions. If you’ve got the skill, that afternoon session could be the best of the run.
Tuesday September 1st morning is clean with 4ft S swell, 16-second period, and light wind. Energy is solid (789). Another top session. Afternoon goes choppy.
The rest is small and clean with occasional strong winds. Wednesday the 2nd has offshore winds all day with 3ft S swell – clean but small. Thursday the 3rd is windy and messy. Friday the 4th is okay. Saturday the 5th is blown out. Sunday the 6th morning is glassy with 2ft – small but clean for a log. Monday the 7th is tiny.
Best bets: Tuesday 25th morning, Thursday 27th morning, and Monday 31st afternoon for the bold. The long-period southern swells will line up perfectly at this point. Keep an eye on that Monday the 31st – it’s a big one.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | ESE 13 | S 9 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 115 | 56 | 34 | 264 | 1074 | 976 | 451 | 344 | 208 | 284 | 321 | 239 | 691 | 1508 | 1545 | 957 | 627 | 350 | 250 | 256 | 176 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 1:56PM1.54m | 2:10AM1.45m | 2:43PM1.52m | 2:58AM1.40m | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:10PM0.48m | 8:23AM0.46m | 8:57PM0.47m | 9:11AM0.44m | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | |
 | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — |
 | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SW 5 | S 9 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 10 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 115 | 56 | 11 | 264 | 1074 | 976 | 451 | 344 | 100 | 284 | 321 | 239 | 691 | 1508 | 1545 | 957 | 627 | 350 | 250 | 256 | 176 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 4 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | S 15 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 4 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 17 | ESE 12 | ESE 15 | NE 5 | NE 5 | ENE 10 | NE 5 |
| kJ | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 4 | 33 | 31 | 208 | 94 | 39 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | S 17 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NNE 4 | SE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | NE 10 | — | E 16 | SE 15 | NE 9 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | S 21 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 35 | 2 | 42 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 29 | 4 | — | 5 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 9 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | N 4 | SW 5 | — | — | NNE 4 | W 3 | ENE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NNE 3 | NNE 3 | NNE 6 | WNW 3 | ENE 5 | — |
| kJ | 2 | 10 | 28 | — | — | 13 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 | 4 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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