Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 18 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.2° C
1.0° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 23s period, S swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, S swell with 4,585 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 24s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 24s period with a secondary swell of 1.4m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 1.0m and 12s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3PM (Sat 18th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 24s
Best Surf 6PM (Sat 18th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 23s
Most Powerful 9PM (Mon 20th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at what’s coming up over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one spot that’s going to be the main player, and it’s a proper one for the crew that knows what they’re doing.

The name of the game is Last Chance, a point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell. The water’s sitting at 56°F right now, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don’t forget a decent spring suit.

We’re kicking off on Saturday, 18 July, with a glassy morning. Swell’s 5ft out of the ESE with a period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy is pumping at 1311 (moderate to strong). The wind is dead calm, glassy, and that’s a massive positive for clean waves. It’s a bit punchy for beginners at this size, but for the advanced crew, it’s a ripper. The afternoon drops to 3ft, but the period jumps to 24 seconds - that’s a very long period groundswell, which means those sets will have plenty of push and shape, especially on a point break.

Sunday, 19 July, holds clean, cross-off conditions with the swell up to 6ft from the S, period 18 seconds, and energy at 2761 (strong). That’s a solid, powerful wave. The afternoon sees a bit more wind, but still cross-off, with 6ft of swell.

Monday, 20 July, the morning is a bit messy with cross-shore wind, but the afternoon? That’s the standout. The swell hits 7ft from the S, period 19 seconds, and the energy is a massive 3515 (very strong). The wind is gentle cross-off, keeping it clean. This is the best of the bunch for the week – big, powerful, clean lines for the experts. Over 8ft would be pushing it, but 7ft is right in the sweet spot for advanced surfers.

Tuesday, 21 July, is another beauty. Morning has offshore wind with 7ft S swell, period 16 seconds, and energy at 2298 (strong). The afternoon turns glassy again with 6ft and a 15-second period. That’s two days of top-tier, clean surf.

From Wednesday, 22 July, the swell starts to drop. The morning is glassy and calm with 5ft from the SSE, but the period is down to 12 seconds, and energy drops to 597 (moderate). It’s surfable, but the magic is fading. From Wednesday afternoon onwards, things get smaller and wind-affected.

We’ve got a long gap of poor options from late Wednesday through to the end of the month. The swell gets small, winds are strong, and conditions are ordinary. There’s a glimmer on Wednesday, 29 July, with a 8ft SE swell, 14-second period, and energy at 1894 (strong), with cross-off wind. That’s a big one for the experts, but it’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on the forecasts. The week after that is messy with strong winds and dropping swell.

So, the call is this: Saturday 18 July through Tuesday 21 July is your window. The absolute standout is Monday afternoon, 20 July, with that 7ft S groundswell and clean conditions. Get out there if you can handle it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
5
4
3
4
3
5
4
4
4
2
3
1
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
ESE
14
0.9
S
24
2.1
S
21
1.9
S
18
1.7
S
17
1.5
S
16
1.8
S
15
2.1
S
19
2.5
S
18
2.1
S
16
1.9
S
15
1.6
S
13
1.4
SSE
12
1.1
SSE
12
1
S
11
0.8
SSE
10
0.5
SSE
10
0.7
ENE
7
0.8
ENE
8
0.8
ENE
8
0.8
E
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
943
915
3822
2300
1682
1120
1447
3185
4209
2203
1568
933
558
361
265
114
56
41
92
94
94
Wind (km/h)
5
WNW
10
SSW
5
NNW
10
WSW
25
SSW
15
SW
15
S
15
SSW
10
S
10
WSW
5
SE
10
N
0
NNW
5
E
5
W
5
N
15
NE
15
NNW
10
NNW
20
NNW
10
N
Wind State
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
off
glassy
cross
glassy
on
off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
8:58PM1.88m
9:27AM1.75m
9:50PM1.81m
10:17AM1.72m
10:42PM1.74m
11:07AM1.68m
11:33PM1.68m
11:59AM1.65m
00:24AM1.62m
12:54PM1.62m
1:14AM1.58m
1:46PM1.61m
2:03AM1.55m
Low Tide
2:42PM0.06m
3:21AM0.09m
3:36PM0.13m
4:12AM0.14m
4:30PM0.21m
5:02AM0.20m
5:23PM0.29m
5:51AM0.28m
6:15PM0.36m
6:39AM0.36m
7:08PM0.42m
7:27AM0.42m
8:00PM0.47m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:22
7:20
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:06
5:07
5:07
5:08
5:09
5:09
5:10
 mm
2
6
Temp °C
11
11
10
13
12
12
11
12
11
11
11
10
11
11
10
12
13
10
14
15
11
Feels °C
8
8
8
8
7
9
7
8
8
8
9
7
9
9
8
9
9
6
10
10
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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