Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s running for Last Chance over the next couple of weeks. First things first, that water’s sitting at 55° Fahrenheit, which is a bit colder than we’d usually expect for this time of year – so you’ll want the thick rubber on if you’re heading out.

The week starts off pretty gutless. Saturday the 12th has a tiny, weak swell in the morning, nothing doing. The afternoon shows a bit of life with a 4ft south swell with a 16-second period, and the light cross-off breeze should keep it clean. It’s a start, but we’re not exactly frothing.

Sunday the 13th is where it kicks off. We’ve got a solid 8ft south swell pushing through, with a 14-second period and a gentle offshore wind in the morning. This is proper, powerful surf and it’s going to be lined up. The combined energy is strong, and it’s going to be a handful – this is one for the experienced crew, not for the faint-hearted. The afternoon drops a touch to 6ft and the wind swings cross, making things messier. Still, Sunday morning is a standout.

Monday the 14th backs off a bit, down to 6ft but with a shorter 12-second period and a light cross-shore breeze. It’s surfable, but the wind isn’t doing us any favours. Tuesday the 15th sees the swell fading fast with increasing onshore wind – that’s a write-off. Wednesday the 16th is tiny and weak, just a knee-high dribble.

We hit a flat spell from Thursday the 17th through to Friday the 18th – nothing but small, weak and windblown slop. Saturday the 19th is a nice little reprieve: a clean 4ft south swell with a glassy morning. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun, a good one for a frolic. Sunday the 20th has a longer-period swell (18 seconds) but it’s arriving with a near gale – 55 km/h winds on it. That’s just blown-out chaos.

Next week kicks off with a bumpy 8ft on Monday the 21st and cross-shore winds – not great. Tuesday the 22nd is back to small and clean-ish with an offshore breeze, but it’s a fraction of the size. Wednesday the 23rd starts to get angry again, building to a 10ft mess by the afternoon, but it’s lumpy and cross-shore. Thursday the 24th is another poor one, 8ft of cross-onshore chop.

Now, look ahead to the weekend. Saturday the 27th is the one to circle in the calendar. The forecast is showing a big groundswell – 12ft of south swell with a 11-second period, and it’s showing up as glassy. The combined energy is absolutely massive, which is serious. This is going to be a beast of a day, big, powerful and clean. It’s a proper expert-only session. It’s a week and a half away, so we can’t lock it in, but if it comes together, this is the standout of the whole run. The Sunday session looks like it could back off a touch with more onshore wind, so Saturday morning is the one.

Overall, there are a couple of gems in there – Sunday morning the 13th and Saturday the 27th. The rest of the week is a mix of small, wind-affected waves or blown-out slop. It’s not looking like a classic stretch, but those two mornings have some real potential.

Rusty.

Read more