Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, boys and girls, Rusty here. We’ve got a wild ride on the table for Last Chance over these next couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.

The first half of the period is a bit of a tease, but by the second week, things get real interesting. There’s a gap of a few days at the start with no real action, so we kick off on Monday, July 6th. The first call is for Monday morning, but honestly, it’s a dud – only 5ft of weak, short-period (8 seconds) ENE windswell, blowing across from the NNE at 9 mph. That’s a cross-shore mess, and with the water temp sitting at 56°, about a degree and a half colder than normal for July, you’ll want a thick wetsuit just to sit there. Not worth the paddle.

But hold onto your board, because things clean right up on Tuesday, July 7th. Tuesday afternoon is a standout: clear skies, glassy conditions with a 3 mph south breeze, and a solid 6ft easterly groundswell at 10 seconds. The combined energy is cranking at 741 (moderate), and the offshore wind direction is favorable. This is the kind of session you wake up thinking about – smooth, lined-up, and begging for a carve. It’s a point break that’s fairly consistent, so expect some company, but the quality will be worth sharing the peak.

We roll into Wednesday and Thursday with consistent 5ft to 7ft easterly swell, still with clean cross-off winds from the southwest. The energy is solid (921 on Wednesday morning), but the breeze picks up to 9–12 mph, so it’s not as glassy as Tuesday. Still, good waves on offer for anyone who knows the point.

Then Friday, July 10th, the swell jumps up to a beastly 15ft from the SSE with a 10-second period, but it comes with a 28 mph southerly crosswind. The combined energy is a massive 3687 (strong), but the ocean is a chaotic, choppy mess. This is not for the faint of heart – only for experts, and honestly, with that wind, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind backs off by Saturday, but the swell is still a heavy 10ft from the SSE, with 19 mph winds. Still expert-only territory.

After that, the swell drops back down into the 5ft to 8ft range from Sunday, July 12th, through the middle of the following week, but the wind stays messy and cross-shore. Not worth planning around.

Now, mark your calendars for Saturday, July 18th. We’ve got a new push from the south: 7ft at 9 seconds, with a light 6 mph offshore west wind. The combined energy is 887 (moderate to strong), and conditions are clean. This is a solid, surfable day, but it’s the calm before the storm.

Because the real standout – and I mean the one you don’t miss – is Sunday, July 19th. We’re talking about a 23ft southerly groundswell with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy? A staggering 34360 (very strong). The wind goes glassy from the west at 3 mph in the morning. But here’s the truth: 23ft is too big for this break. This is a point break, and with a 14-second period, it will be a freight train of energy. For the absolute elite – the chargers – this could be the session of a lifetime. For everyone else, stand on the cliff and watch the show. The afternoon drops to 18ft, still massive, but with a light cross-onshore. The energy is still through the roof (11736). Do not take this lightly.

Things stay big and messy after that, with 12ft+ waves and fresh onshore winds from the NE from Monday, July 20th, into Tuesday. These are poor conditions, not for paddling. Kite surfers might have a field day, though.

Overall, the best on offer is Tuesday afternoon, July 7th, for clean, fun waves, and the epic-but-ominous Sunday, July 19th, for the big-wave crew. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more