Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Last Chance. This is a point break that really only comes alive when conditions line up, and it’s a spot for the advanced crew. The water is sitting at 55° right now, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, something to keep in mind.

The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that are gonna get the heart racing. First up, Thursday the 3rd, we've got a nice solid push. The morning is looking clean with a 5ft south-southeast groundswell, a 13-second period, and that cross-off wind from the north-northwest. There’s moderate wave energy in the water (900), and the combo of size and clear skies makes for very good surf. That’s your best bet for the near term. The afternoon stays fun but drops a bit to 4ft with a light cross breeze.

The surf then backs right off through Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th. Friday has small, weak 3ft swell, and Saturday morning is tiny at 2ft. That glassy 2ft on Saturday morning is surfable, but it’s very ordinary. We’re looking at a few days of nothing much to write home about.

Sunday the 6th is small, but a sneaky long-period 17-second groundswell pops in the afternoon at a weak 1ft. It’s not much to get on, but the period is interesting. Then Monday the 7th gets a bit of a spike with a 8ft south swell in the afternoon, but it’s only 7 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph. That’s messy and only marginal.

Now, the real standout. Mark your calendars for Friday the 11th. The morning hits with a clean 8ft south swell, 8-second period, and strong wave energy pushing 988. But the afternoon, oh boy. Glassy conditions, a 3ft south swell with a 20-second period. That is a very long-period groundswell, packing a lot of energy for its size (875). For a point break like Last Chance, that long period is a huge positive, meaning long, lined-up walls. It’s not huge, but the quality will be top-notch.

The following weekend gets dramatic. Saturday the 12th sees a massive 8ft swell with an incredible 2971 energy reading, but it’s accompanied by a strong breeze of 28 mph. That’s a washing machine for all but the maddest experts. Then Sunday the 13th morning is the next big ticket. Glassy conditions again, a solid 8ft south groundswell with a 13-second period and very strong energy (2012). The data calls it excellent for experienced surfers, and I’m not arguing. That’s a big, clean, powerful point break session, but at this size, it’s strictly for the pros.

After that, the second week has some promising signals. Wednesday the 16th afternoon brings a very good 5ft south-southeast swell with a 12-second period and solid energy (925) under light winds. Thursday the 17th has a bigger 7ft south-southeast swell with a long 14-second period, but offshore winds are a fresh 19 mph. It’ll be clean and powerful, but again, big and windy for the advanced only. The outlook for the 18th shows a clean 4ft south swell with a 17-second period – long-period groundswell again – but it’s a bit smaller and more marginal for a big session.

Overall, the best on offer is the glassy Sunday the 13th morning for the experienced crew, and the super clean, long-period Friday the 11th afternoon if you want quality over raw size. Keep an eye out, the long-range stuff on the 17th and 18th looks promising but less certain. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

Read more