Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 25 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 1 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 15s period, SSE swell with 11,970 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 26 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 26) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 11s period and expected on Monday (Aug 31) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Wed 26th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Tue 1st Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 18ft (5.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here with the outlook for Last Chance.
We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming our way. The first few days are a tease, but the real standout is a massive pulse of swell that hits on the first of September. That’s the one we’ll be waiting for.
Let’s start with Wednesday, the 26th of August. A clean, glassy morning with a 3ft south swell, a long 18-second period, and light offshore wind. The wave energy is moderate (637) and conditions are looking prime. That's your best early window. The afternoon gets a bit messy with a cross-on wind, so make the most of the morning.
Thursday the 27th sees the swell building to 5ft, but the wind switches to a strong cross-on, making it lumpy. The energy is ramping up (1370) but the quality drops. Not the day for it.
The weekend is pretty flat and underwhelming. Friday the 28th has some knee-high leftovers with a moderate cross-shore chop. Saturday and Sunday stay small and weak, with the energy dropping below 300. There’s a clean window on Saturday afternoon with a 3ft swell, but it’s small.
Now, Monday the 31st of August gets interesting for the wrong reasons first. A strong 10ft south swell rolls in, but it’s accompanied by a howling 31 mph offshore wind. The wave energy is very strong (2009), but that wind makes it a kiter’s day, not a surfer’s. The afternoon cleans up but the swell is still a solid 8ft, which is expert territory.
The Standout: Tuesday, the 1st of September. This is the one. Glassy, clean conditions with a massive 18ft south swell. The energy is enormous (11795). This is a true groundswell with a 14-second period, which at a point break like Last Chance will set up some incredible, long, racy waves. This is for advanced surfers only – it’s too big for anyone else. The morning is the window. The afternoon wind shifts onshore, so get on it early.
After that, the swell drops back. Wednesday the 2nd has a nice, clean 6ft SSW swell with glassy conditions again. A solid, fun day. The rest of the week into the second week shows a slow decline into small, weak swells. The period stays long into the 10th of September, but the height is minimal and the winds are mostly cross-shore, keeping the quality poor.
The crowd situation at Last Chance can be busy, so for that Tuesday morning, get there early.
That’s the story. Keep your eyes on the first of September.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Thu afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | S 18 | S 17 | S 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | NE 7 | S 11 | S 11 | S 14 | S 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 600 | 513 | 260 | 1183 | 1660 | 1350 | 722 | 484 | 258 | 186 | 148 | 140 | 91 | 34 | 9 | 2041 | 1599 | 1403 | 6980 | 10460 | 3282 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — |
 | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | S 18 | S 17 | S 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | NE 7 | S 11 | S 11 | S 14 | NE 10 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 |
| kJ | 600 | 513 | 260 | 1183 | 1660 | 1350 | 722 | 484 | 258 | 186 | 143 | 140 | 91 | 34 | 9 | 2041 | 1599 | 1403 | 27 | 10460 | 3282 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SSE 18 | ESE 11 | S 5 | ESE 11 | SE 15 | NE 5 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | NE 7 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 7 | SE 12 | S 16 | ENE 10 | NE 11 | — | NE 10 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 33 | 33 | 63 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 19 | 17 | 49 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 329 | 10 | 18 | — | 25 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | NE 10 | ESE 12 | — | ESE 11 | E 16 | SE 15 | SE 14 | — | SSW 12 | SE 13 | S 15 | SW 5 | ESE 12 | — | — | NE 10 | NE 11 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | 29 | — | 12 | 5 | 9 | 8 | — | 56 | 42 | 18 | 1 | 13 | — | — | 24 | 29 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NNE 7 | SW 4 | — | WNW 2 | SSW 7 | SSW 11 | — | — | S 12 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 21 | 72 | 36 | 54 | 148 | 1 | — | 1 | 595 | 3076 | — | — | 6980 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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