
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with 3,390 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 16s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 1.1m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.2m 2s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 17) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 4ft (1.2m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s running for Last Chance over the next couple of weeks. First things first, that water’s sitting at 55° Fahrenheit, which is a bit colder than we’d usually expect for this time of year – so you’ll want the thick rubber on if you’re heading out.
The week starts off pretty gutless. Saturday the 12th has a tiny, weak swell in the morning, nothing doing. The afternoon shows a bit of life with a 4ft south swell with a 16-second period, and the light cross-off breeze should keep it clean. It’s a start, but we’re not exactly frothing.
Sunday the 13th is where it kicks off. We’ve got a solid 8ft south swell pushing through, with a 14-second period and a gentle offshore wind in the morning. This is proper, powerful surf and it’s going to be lined up. The combined energy is strong, and it’s going to be a handful – this is one for the experienced crew, not for the faint-hearted. The afternoon drops a touch to 6ft and the wind swings cross, making things messier. Still, Sunday morning is a standout.
Monday the 14th backs off a bit, down to 6ft but with a shorter 12-second period and a light cross-shore breeze. It’s surfable, but the wind isn’t doing us any favours. Tuesday the 15th sees the swell fading fast with increasing onshore wind – that’s a write-off. Wednesday the 16th is tiny and weak, just a knee-high dribble.
We hit a flat spell from Thursday the 17th through to Friday the 18th – nothing but small, weak and windblown slop. Saturday the 19th is a nice little reprieve: a clean 4ft south swell with a glassy morning. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun, a good one for a frolic. Sunday the 20th has a longer-period swell (18 seconds) but it’s arriving with a near gale – 55 km/h winds on it. That’s just blown-out chaos.
Next week kicks off with a bumpy 8ft on Monday the 21st and cross-shore winds – not great. Tuesday the 22nd is back to small and clean-ish with an offshore breeze, but it’s a fraction of the size. Wednesday the 23rd starts to get angry again, building to a 10ft mess by the afternoon, but it’s lumpy and cross-shore. Thursday the 24th is another poor one, 8ft of cross-onshore chop.
Now, look ahead to the weekend. Saturday the 27th is the one to circle in the calendar. The forecast is showing a big groundswell – 12ft of south swell with a 11-second period, and it’s showing up as glassy. The combined energy is absolutely massive, which is serious. This is going to be a beast of a day, big, powerful and clean. It’s a proper expert-only session. It’s a week and a half away, so we can’t lock it in, but if it comes together, this is the standout of the whole run. The Sunday session looks like it could back off a touch with more onshore wind, so Saturday morning is the one.
Overall, there are a couple of gems in there – Sunday morning the 13th and Saturday the 27th. The rest of the week is a mix of small, wind-affected waves or blown-out slop. It’s not looking like a classic stretch, but those two mornings have some real potential.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 13 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SSE 8 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | S 6 | S 7 | S 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 755 | 3381 | 2218 | 1363 | 1252 | 1047 | 855 | 541 | 276 | 160 | 125 | 79 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 50 | 57 | 483 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | 7:45AM1.75m | 8:04PM1.73m | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | 9:58AM1.72m | 10:25PM1.64m | 10:45AM1.66m | 11:11PM1.59m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | 1:52PM0.24m | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | 3:51AM0.39m | 4:19PM0.39m | 4:38AM0.42m | 5:05PM0.42m | ||||||||
6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
— | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | S 8 | N 4 | S 6 | S 7 | S 16 |
14 | 755 | 3381 | 2218 | 1363 | 1252 | 1047 | 855 | 541 | 276 | 160 | 125 | 79 | 40 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 57 | 483 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 13 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | E 8 | E 9 | — | S 15 | NE 5 | NE 5 | S 13 | NE 5 | S 14 | S 14 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 14 | S 6 |
17 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 7 | — | 41 | 27 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 34 | 36 | 18 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ENE 13 | ENE 12 | ENE 8 | E 8 | NE 12 | E 9 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NE 13 | E 9 | S 15 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | S 13 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | S 13 | S 11 | S 18 | ESE 13 |
4 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 54 | 64 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | S 6 | — | — | S 11 | — | — | — | NE 3 | NNE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 5 | — | NE 5 | — | — | NNE 3 | — | — | — | NE 3 |
962 | 86 | — | — | 657 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 47 | — | 6 | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | 5 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 88 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 285 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 86 | 252 | 71 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










