
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, S swell with 2,856 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 10s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 21s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Tue 14th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Last Chance.
First up, the water temp is sitting at 56°F right now, which is about 2°F cooler than normal for this time of year. Nothing too wild, just a touch on the fresh side, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit.
Right now, and for the next couple of days, we’re in a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 14th is pretty flat with weak, messy swell. There’s a small bump of 1ft to 2ft, but winds are cross or cross-off, and the energy is weak (125). It’s surfable but nothing to get excited about.
Wednesday the 15th is a total glass-off morning with 2ft of east swell, period around 11 seconds. The energy is low (71), but it’ll be clean. Still, it’s really small – a board-stretcher, not a standout.
Things start to pick up on Thursday the 16th. The morning delivers 2ft of east swell with a very long 15-second period, and light cross-off NNW wind. The combined energy jumps to 243, which is moderate. It’s clean, but still on the small side. The afternoon goes up to 2ft with a 17-second period and 395 energy, but the score is marginal.
Now, the real standout window begins Friday the 17th. Friday morning sees 5ft of ESE swell with a 16-second period, clean cross-off WSW wind, and energy hitting 1249. This is solid, groundswell-driven surf for experienced surfers. The swell direction (ESE) matches the optimum (NE) well enough for this point break. Because it’s a point, that long period will wrap in nicely, giving you proper waves. This is the best on offer in the first week.
Saturday the 18th keeps it going. Morning has 5ft ESE swell, 14-second period, 1399 energy, and light cross-off wind. The afternoon goes glassy with 5ft and 1089 energy. Clean, consistent, and excellent for experienced surfers. If you’re an advanced surfer, Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon is your window.
Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th see a shift. Swell drops to 3ft to 4ft from the south, with strong winds (19 mph) and lumpy conditions. The energy is high (1500+) but the quality drops. Not worth it.
From Tuesday the 21st through to Saturday the 26th, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. Swell is small, onshore winds dominate, and the energy is moderate to low. There’s a few days there with nothing to recommend. This is a real quiet patch.
Then, hold onto your board. Sunday the 26th afternoon sees a massive jump: 13ft of east swell, 12-second period, and a colossal 4633 energy. The wind is onshore though, so it’s messy. But the real bombs are on Monday the 27th. Monday morning has 13ft of east swell, an 11-second period, and a staggering 8552 energy, with offshore WSW wind. This is a serious, expert-only day. The afternoon is even bigger at 15ft, but the file says it’s too big for this break. For the experts, Monday morning is the absolute standout of the whole 16-day run. It’s big, powerful, and clean.
Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th still have big swell (7ft to 10ft) and clean conditions, but the energy drops. Still excellent for experienced surfers, but the peak is Monday the 27th.
So, to wrap it up: your best bets are Friday the 17th through Saturday the 18th for solid, clean, expert-level surf, and Monday the 27th for a massive, powerful, offshore day that’s only for the brave. The long gap in the middle (roughly the 21st to the 25th) is a write-off.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | S 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 19 | S 17 | S 10 | S 18 | S 15 | S 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
72 | 32 | 34 | 62 | 55 | 37 | 215 | 229 | 1011 | 1230 | 1376 | 1544 | 943 | 879 | 613 | 715 | 600 | 873 | 749 | 760 | 740 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 5:14PM1.94m | 5:45AM1.79m | 6:14PM1.96m | 6:44AM1.79m | 7:11PM1.96m | 7:42AM1.78m | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | 8:58PM1.88m | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:01AM0.15m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:59AM0.08m | 00:36AM0.09m | 12:53PM0.04m | 1:34AM0.06m | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | ||||||||
7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | 5:04 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 8 | ESE 10 | NNE 4 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | S 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 15 |
39 | 32 | 8 | 62 | 55 | 37 | 215 | 229 | 1011 | 1230 | 1376 | 1544 | 943 | 879 | 613 | 491 | 355 | 746 | 535 | 506 | 740 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 12 | ESE 10 | NE 5 | ENE 5 | ESE 13 | S 17 | E 14 | S 16 | S 16 | S 16 | ESE 15 | S 10 | S 8 | S 23 | S 19 | S 17 | ESE 12 | S 18 | S 15 | SSE 8 |
72 | 24 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 24 | 134 | 20 | 19 | 185 | 1193 | 440 | 177 | 361 | 715 | 600 | 328 | 749 | 760 | 207 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | E 13 | E 12 | S 9 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | SW 10 | — | — | — | E 14 | S 14 | SSW 12 | — | — | S 16 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 |
4 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 24 | 4 | — | — | — | 16 | 33 | 52 | — | — | 322 | 250 | 242 | 183 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | NE 6 | — | W 3 | — | NNE 4 | — | N 10 | WSW 3 | SSW 6 | S 8 | — | — | — | S 8 | S 7 | S 8 | S 10 | — | — | — |
10 | 25 | — | 1 | — | 2 | — | 8 | 5 | 77 | 377 | — | — | — | 160 | 392 | 589 | 873 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 153 | 72 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










