Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.2° C
1.1° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 11 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, SE swell with 1,480 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s. Another secondary swell of 1.1m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Sat 11th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 9s
Best Surf12PM (Sat 11th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 9s
Most Powerful12AM (Sat 11th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s headed our way down at Last Chance.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the waiting is gonna be worth it if you’ve got patience. The opening days are pretty average, but the back half of the outlook is where the real story is, especially for the crew who can handle some size.

Friday 10th July is a write-off, honestly. Strong south wind at 22 mph, lumpy cross-chop, and a messy 13ft SE swell. The combined energy is way up there at (2995), but it’s just a chore. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday 11th July cleans up a bit. The swell drops to 7ft from the SE, period’s a short 9 seconds, and the wind goes cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph. Cleaner faces, but it’s still a bit of a handful.

Sunday 12th July morning is the first real bright spot. Swell settles to 5ft from the SE, with a light WSW cross-off at 9 mph. It’s clean, and the energy is moderate (595). The water is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so don’t forget the thick wetsuit.

From Monday 13th through to Wednesday 15th, it’s a flat spell. Tiny waves, periods getting long but no power. Wednesday morning is glassy but with only 1ft – there’s nothing to surf.

Thursday 16th July morning kicks off a new pulse. We get a 3ft ESE swell, but the period is a whopping 18 seconds, making it a very long groundswell. Energy is moderate (566), and with a light cross-off from the NW, it’s clean. This kind of period is best at a point break like Last Chance, so it’ll handle the long lines well. The standout for the first week.

Friday 17th July through Saturday 18th sees the swell build to 6ft, still with decent periods (14-15 seconds). The wind is cross-off from the SW, but it’s getting fresh (16-22 mph), so it’s a bit blustery. Clean but with a push of power.

Sunday 19th July morning is a cracker. Swell is 3ft from the ESE, period 12 seconds, and the wind is light offshore from the W at 6 mph. Glassy, clean, and the energy is moderate (596). This is a proper session.

Monday 20th July afternoon is the big one for the second week. Swell jumps to 8ft from the E, period 9 seconds, with a cross-off wind from the SW. The energy is strong (1195), and it’s flagged as excellent for experienced surfers. This is waves for the crew who can handle it. Over 8ft – that’s expert territory.

Tuesday 21st keeps the size at 8-8ft from the ESE, with a light cross-shore wind. Still plenty of juice, but the crowds might be around – it’s a spot that can get busy.

Wednesday 22nd July morning is the absolute standout of the whole 16 days. Glassy conditions, 13ft SSE swell, period 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive (5358). This is exceptional, but it’s only for the experts. The swell direction is a touch south of optimum, but with that size and glass, it’s gonna be a day to remember.

Thursday 23rd to Friday 24th drops back to 10ft then 8ft, with clean cross-off winds. Still good for experienced surfers.

Saturday 25th July morning winds down the run with a clean 5ft ESE swell, offshore wind, and moderate energy (505). A nice way to finish.

So, if you’re picking one or two, I’d set my alarm for Thursday 16th July morning for the long period groundswell and that clean NW wind, and definitely Wednesday 22nd July morning for the glassy, massive 13ft SSE swell – if you’ve got the skills.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the S on Fri morning, calm by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
2
2
2
2
3
1
1
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
SE
10
3.5
SE
10
3
SE
10
2.2
SE
9
1.9
SE
9
1.8
SE
9
1.4
SE
9
1.2
ESE
9
1.1
ESE
10
0.8
S
11
0.8
ESE
8
0.6
S
13
0.5
S
12
0.3
S
12
0.4
ESE
10
0.4
ESE
11
0.4
ESE
10
0.4
ESE
13
0.9
ESE
18
1.4
ESE
17
1.6
ESE
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2924
2223
1480
840
626
515
323
227
210
141
82
123
72
24
34
37
37
55
540
1000
1230
Wind (km/h)
35
S
35
S
30
SSW
20
SSW
15
SSW
15
SSW
15
WSW
10
S
10
N
15
NNW
15
N
15
N
10
N
15
NNE
10
NW
0
WNW
5
SE
5
NNW
15
NW
15
NW
25
WNW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
glassy
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:22PM1.70m
1:49AM1.70m
2:19PM1.77m
2:46AM1.73m
3:16PM1.84m
3:46AM1.75m
4:14PM1.90m
4:46AM1.78m
5:14PM1.94m
5:45AM1.79m
6:14PM1.96m
6:44AM1.79m
7:11PM1.96m
Low Tide
7:39PM0.34m
8:00AM0.29m
8:39PM0.30m
8:58AM0.26m
9:39PM0.25m
10:00AM0.22m
10:38PM0.19m
11:01AM0.15m
11:37PM0.13m
11:59AM0.08m
00:36AM0.09m
12:53PM0.04m
1:34AM0.06m
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
cloud
clear
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:00
5:01
5:01
5:02
5:04
5:04
5:05
 mm
3
2
2
1
2
1
5
Temp °C
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
13
15
12
15
16
13
14
15
14
16
16
12
Feels °C
4
3
3
5
6
5
7
7
6
9
11
9
11
13
11
13
13
12
13
13
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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