Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s talk about the next stretch. Last Chance is the only spot on the map for this whole run, so we’re putting all our eggs in one basket. It’s a pretty exposed point, so it’ll see most of what’s out there, but it needs the right wind to really shine.

The forecast opens up with a bit of hope for Sunday the 16th, but honestly, it’s a tease. We’ve got a clean 5ft east swell pushing in, but that cross-off wind is fresh and the energy is only moderate at 527. It’s surfable, but it’s not going to be pretty. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—about 3° off the mark—so maybe grab the hood if you’re sensitive.

Then things go sideways for a few days. Monday the 17th brings a jump in size, but it’s a mess. The swell jumps up to 12ft on the morning with a strong cross-shore wind and that energy is cranking at 2846. It’s powerful, but it’s all over the place. Then it gets even bigger on Tuesday afternoon, hitting 13ft, and Wednesday morning cracks 16ft with a 12-second period. That’s a serious amount of water – energy readings are through the roof, over 7000 – but with those strong onshore/cross winds it’s just going to be a washing machine out there. This is proper expert-only territory, and even then, it’s more of a survival mission than a fun session. The combined energy is strong, but the quality is zero.

We get a bit of a breather on Thursday the 20th. The swell drops to around 7ft, but it’s still a bit lumpy with a moderate breeze. Still not the one.

Then, finally, Friday morning the 21st is where it all clicks. The wind goes glassy—a slight air from the NNW—and the swell settles into a clean 4ft with a 10-second period. Energy is still moderate at 585, but it’s clean. The surf report says to expect very good conditions. This is the standout of the whole period, the one you don’t want to miss. Last Chance will be working like a proper point, with those lined-up walls.

Saturday the 22nd is still good, but a notch down. Glassy conditions again with a 4ft south swell at a longer 13 seconds. The energy is a bit weaker, but it’ll still be clean and fun. Good chance for a longboard.

After that, it fades. Sunday the 23rd is small and ordinary, with waves dropping to under 3ft. Then we hit a proper flat spell. Monday the 24th is basically nothing, with just a knee-high dribble. The first week of the outlook ends on a whimper, not a bang.

The second week is lean. There’s a brief pulse around the 29th with a clean 6ft south swell, but the period is short at 7 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly. Could be fun for a grovel, but nothing special. The rest of that week is either small, wind-affected, or both. The bigger swells stay away, and the energy levels are mostly weak.

So, bottom line: you’ve got one real standout, and that’s Friday morning, the 21st. If you can get out there for that, you’ll be smiling. The rest of the window is either too big, too messy, or too flat. There are a few other windows like Saturday the 22nd that are okay, but Friday is the call. For a spot this exposed, when it’s glassy and lined up, it’s a special place to be. Just keep an eye on the long-range stuff—it’s promising but not certain.

Rusty.

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