Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, S swell with 6,207 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 11s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 01) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, rusty here. Let’s have a look at the forecast for Last Chance.
Alright, first things first. This is a point break that’s exposed to the swell and likes it from the NE. The water’s sitting at 55° which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll be glad for the extra rubber.
The week kicks off with a bit of a slow start. The first couple of days are pretty average. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st are mostly a write-off – small, messy, and windy. Not worth paddling out for. The real story starts to build on Sunday the 2nd. That morning we’ve got a solid 8ft SSE groundswell, period around 12 seconds, and the wind is offshore from the WSW. That’s clean, powerful, and the energy is strong (1889). This is definitely for experienced surfers only – it’s pumping, but it’s a serious wave. Sunday afternoon stays clean with 7ft.
Monday the 3rd is a nice little drop in size – 5ft coming down to 4ft in the afternoon with glassy conditions. That’s when the beginner-to-intermediate crew can have a crack. It’s clean and easy.
Then comes the standout. Tuesday the 4th. The combined energy is massive – 9279 on the morning session. We’re looking at a 13ft S swell with a 14-second period, which is a very long period groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the SSW, so it’ll be clean. This is for experts only – way too big for anyone else. That afternoon holds solid at 12ft with a 15-second period. This is the best on offer in the whole window. It’s a big, powerful, clean swell.
The next few days are still good, with Wednesday and Thursday holding 8ft to 7ft on decent groundswells, but with cross-off winds. Good, but not the standout.
The following weekend (Saturday the 8th) through to the 15th is a mixed bag. There’s some nice glassy mornings on the 7th and 9th with small clean waves, and a noteworthy day on Thursday the 13th afternoon and Friday the 14th when the wind goes offshore from the WNW and W, cleaning up a 8ft to 8ft SE swell. That’s a solid session for experienced surfers again.
Towards the end of the run, it gets a bit wind-affected and lumpy, especially from the 10th to the 12th with onshore winds and a lot of chop. The 11th is a complete mess with a 15ft ENE swell and fresh cross-onshore winds – that’s a pass.
So, the clear standout is Tuesday the 4th. It’s big, it’s clean, and it’s powerful. For the big wave crew, that’s the day. For the rest of us, the glassy mornings on the 3rd, 7th, and 9th are the best bet for a fun, manageable paddle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat afternoon, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the SSW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSE 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 202 | 161 | 85 | 1243 | 2909 | 3188 | 1840 | 1163 | 773 | 451 | 314 | 386 | 6207 | 6000 | 3806 | 2570 | 2613 | 1739 | 1121 | 716 | 452 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | |
 | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — |
 | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Feels °C | 10 | 12 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSE 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 202 | 161 | 85 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 1840 | 1163 | 773 | 451 | 314 | 386 | 3066 | 6000 | 3806 | 2570 | 2613 | 1739 | 1121 | 716 | 452 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | NE 6 | SE 15 | SE 16 | NE 17 | NE 16 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 20 | S 18 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | SSE 18 | NE 11 | NE 11 | ESE 15 | SE 15 | SE 13 |
| kJ | 28 | 11 | 57 | 119 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 8 | 37 | 69 | 58 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 348 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 34 | 46 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | SE 15 | NE 6 | NE 18 | NE 17 | E 10 | NE 16 | NE 15 | S 19 | NE 13 | ENE 13 | NE 12 | — | — | — | NE 12 | SE 18 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | NE 10 |
| kJ | 32 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 46 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 6 | — | — | — | 5 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 6 | NW 3 | W 3 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | — | — | — | WNW 3 | WNW 3 | SSW 6 | S 14 | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NE 3 | NE 3 |
| kJ | 80 | 1 | 2 | 1243 | 2909 | 3188 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 40 | 6207 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 103 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 63 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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