Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Last Chance.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 56°F right now, which is about 2°F cooler than normal for this time of year. Nothing too wild, just a touch on the fresh side, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit.

Right now, and for the next couple of days, we’re in a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 14th is pretty flat with weak, messy swell. There’s a small bump of 1ft to 2ft, but winds are cross or cross-off, and the energy is weak (125). It’s surfable but nothing to get excited about.

Wednesday the 15th is a total glass-off morning with 2ft of east swell, period around 11 seconds. The energy is low (71), but it’ll be clean. Still, it’s really small – a board-stretcher, not a standout.

Things start to pick up on Thursday the 16th. The morning delivers 2ft of east swell with a very long 15-second period, and light cross-off NNW wind. The combined energy jumps to 243, which is moderate. It’s clean, but still on the small side. The afternoon goes up to 2ft with a 17-second period and 395 energy, but the score is marginal.

Now, the real standout window begins Friday the 17th. Friday morning sees 5ft of ESE swell with a 16-second period, clean cross-off WSW wind, and energy hitting 1249. This is solid, groundswell-driven surf for experienced surfers. The swell direction (ESE) matches the optimum (NE) well enough for this point break. Because it’s a point, that long period will wrap in nicely, giving you proper waves. This is the best on offer in the first week.

Saturday the 18th keeps it going. Morning has 5ft ESE swell, 14-second period, 1399 energy, and light cross-off wind. The afternoon goes glassy with 5ft and 1089 energy. Clean, consistent, and excellent for experienced surfers. If you’re an advanced surfer, Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon is your window.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th see a shift. Swell drops to 3ft to 4ft from the south, with strong winds (19 mph) and lumpy conditions. The energy is high (1500+) but the quality drops. Not worth it.

From Tuesday the 21st through to Saturday the 26th, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. Swell is small, onshore winds dominate, and the energy is moderate to low. There’s a few days there with nothing to recommend. This is a real quiet patch.

Then, hold onto your board. Sunday the 26th afternoon sees a massive jump: 13ft of east swell, 12-second period, and a colossal 4633 energy. The wind is onshore though, so it’s messy. But the real bombs are on Monday the 27th. Monday morning has 13ft of east swell, an 11-second period, and a staggering 8552 energy, with offshore WSW wind. This is a serious, expert-only day. The afternoon is even bigger at 15ft, but the file says it’s too big for this break. For the experts, Monday morning is the absolute standout of the whole 16-day run. It’s big, powerful, and clean.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th still have big swell (7ft to 10ft) and clean conditions, but the energy drops. Still excellent for experienced surfers, but the peak is Monday the 27th.

So, to wrap it up: your best bets are Friday the 17th through Saturday the 18th for solid, clean, expert-level surf, and Monday the 27th for a massive, powerful, offshore day that’s only for the brave. The long gap in the middle (roughly the 21st to the 25th) is a write-off.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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