Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 29 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.5°C
1.1° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 29 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, S swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, S swell with 4,273 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 30 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 30) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 1.0m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 12s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 9PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Sun 30th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 11s
Best Surf 6PM (Wed 2nd Sep)8ft (2.5m) 17s
Most Powerful 6PM (Wed 2nd Sep)8ft (2.5m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Last Chance over the next 16 days. I’ll be straight with you – the first few days are a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are just not worth paddling out for, with tiny, messy, and poor surf conditions. We’re looking at a gap right through until late Monday the 31st before anything decent shows up.

Now, Monday the 31st of August is where things finally start to get interesting. The morning brings a clean, 3ft swell from the S with a very long 17-second period. The wind is offshore and light, so it’ll be smooth. The combined energy is in the moderate range (600). But the real standout is Monday afternoon. The swell jumps to 6ft from the S, period at 14 seconds, and it goes glassy. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The combined energy rockets up to 1442, so there's some proper push behind it.

Tuesday the 1st of September stays solid, with a 7ft to 8ft S swell but the wind picks up strong from the SSW and SW. It’s still cross-offshore, so clean, but those 16 to 19 mph winds will make it challenging. The energy is strong (1450 to 1877). This is not a beginner’s day.

The real epicenter of this forecast, the one I’d mark in the calendar, is Wednesday the 2nd of September. Morning surf shows 8ft of S swell with a 13-second period and light NNW cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is a very strong 2585. This is excellent for experienced surfers. Afternoon pushes it even bigger at 8ft S with a 14-second period, but the wind swings onshore from the ENE, so the morning window is your best bet.

Thursday the 3rd of September is still a strong option. The swell drops to a still-healthy 6ft from the S, 14-second period, with a clean cross-offshore wind. The energy is 1345. In the afternoon, it goes offshore from the WNW with a 5ft SSE swell and a 13-second period, giving you clean, lined-up waves.

After that, the surf fades significantly. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th have some swell but conditions turn poor. Then we hit a long gap of several days with only small, choppy, or blown-out waves. A few days in the middle of the 16-day window look hopeless.

Hold onto your board for Thursday the 10th of September. That afternoon sees a huge pulse: 11ft from the S with a 14-second period, offshore wind from the WNW, and a combined energy of 5040. This is exceptional, but only for expert surfers as it’s well over 8ft. It’s a long-range standout, so keep an eye on it but don’t bank on it just yet.

The rest of the window from the 11th onward drops back to small, weak, and mostly not worth the drive.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
4
3
3
2
4
4
3
5
4
3
1
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SSE
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
11
0.6
SSE
11
0.5
NE
9
0.5
S
13
0.9
S
17
1.8
S
14
1.9
S
13
2.1
S
13
2.4
S
13
2.5
S
12
2.5
S
13
2.5
S
14
2.5
S
16
1.8
S
14
1.4
SSE
13
1
S
12
0.8
S
12
0.6
S
11
0.6
S
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
193
176
138
90
38
83
443
1334
1210
1420
1854
1987
2576
2775
3098
1335
700
289
171
85
71
Wind (km/h)
15
N
20
N
15
N
5
WSW
20
SW
25
W
5
W
5
W
35
WNW
25
SSW
30
SW
10
NW
10
NNW
5
ENE
25
WNW
15
NW
15
WNW
15
NW
10
WNW
20
WNW
10
SSW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
6:33PM1.57m
6:58AM1.52m
7:20PM1.62m
7:44AM1.59m
8:05PM1.66m
8:29AM1.65m
8:52PM1.69m
9:13AM1.70m
9:40PM1.69m
9:59AM1.73m
10:30PM1.68m
10:50AM1.74m
11:22PM1.67m
Low Tide
12:17PM0.28m
00:49AM0.26m
1:02PM0.25m
1:35AM0.24m
1:48PM0.24m
2:20AM0.23m
2:37PM0.24m
3:05AM0.23m
3:28PM0.25m
3:52AM0.23m
4:20PM0.25m
4:42AM0.24m
5:13PM0.25m
light rain
light rain
light rain
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:35
6:33
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:43
5:44
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:46
5:47
 mm
1
2
1
4
2
Temp °C
17
16
13
15
16
14
14
15
14
9
8
7
12
14
13
18
19
15
20
20
15
Feels °C
15
13
10
12
12
8
12
13
7
4
1
3
9
12
9
15
16
12
16
16
13
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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