Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty.

Alright, let's chew over the goods for Last Chance. This is a point break that's open to the swell, and it's a real paddle. The water is sitting at 55°F , which is about 2°F colder than usual for this time of year, so you'll feel that. We've got a 16-day run, but there's a slow start and a whole lot of wind to get through before the real meat shows up.

The first real standout is Wednesday morning, July 29th. The early session is looking sweet. We've got a clean 6ft groundswell from the ESE with a nice 13-second period, and the wind is glassy from the N at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a solid 1075 (moderate wave energy), which is a healthy push. That's proper point-break conditions—clean, lined up, and offering some punch for the experienced crew. The afternoon goes to hell though, as the wind swings NE at 12 mph and turns it to chop.

Then we hit a long dry spell. From Thursday through to the end of the first week, it's a waste. The swell drops, and the wind just mucks it up. We get a bit of relief on Monday morning, August 3rd. The wind goes offshore from the W at a whisper, and we've got a 6ft swell from the S (11-second period) with 1454 energy (moderate wave energy). It's clean, but that's a hefty swell for a point, so it's one for the experienced only.

The next absolute standout is Tuesday, August 4th. This is a big one. Both morning and afternoon are seeing a massive 16ft swell from the S with a 14-second period. The energy numbers are through the roof—8885 and 8560 (very strong wave energy). The wind is clean and cross-off. But here's the thing: 16ft is a monster. The file says it's predicted to be too big for this break. This is strictly for the experts only, and even then, you'd want to be on a gun and know the reef. For the average punter, it's a spectator sport. The next few days are still big, with 10ft and 8ft swells, but the wind stays messy, so that's not a ticket.

We finally get a clean, manageable window on Friday, August 7th. Both morning and afternoon are looking excellent for experienced surfers. We've got a 6ft swell from the SE with a 13-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is 1247 (moderate wave energy). This is about as good as it gets for a point without it being a washing machine. That's the pick of the weekend.

The second week is a complete write-off from the 8th to the 12th of August. The wind is howling out of the SSE and SW at 25-37 mph with squalls, rain, and thunderstorms. The swell is there but it's all over the shop, and the wind is strong enough to make it look more like a kite-surfing zone than a wave. Don't bother.

The 16-day window closes with a glimmer of hope on Thursday, August 13th. The morning is looking clean with a 6ft swell from the ENE (13-second period) and light cross-off winds. The energy is 1096 (moderate wave energy). It's a solid, clean option for the experienced surfer, but it's a long way off.

So, the best on offer is Wednesday morning, July 29th for the glassy, clean start, and Friday, August 7th for the solid, manageable groundswell with clean winds. The big stuff on Tuesday the 4th is the standout for size, but only for the brave.

Rusty.

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