Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 7,197 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 4 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s break down Last Chance in feet and miles per hour.
The water’s running about 55°F, which is a touch colder than usual for this time of year, so a good wetsuit is a must. The first couple of days are a mess. We’ve got a massive south swell rolling in, with energy readings over 3400 and 5997, but the wind is a solid 18 to 25 mph out of the SSW and SW. That’s pushing the swell height from 10 to 15 feet, which is strictly for the big-wave crew, and with the wind right on it, it’s just ugly. On Wednesday morning, the swell is actually too big for the break to work well.
The first real standout is Thursday morning. The swell eases to about 10 feet from the south, period 11 seconds, and the energy is still solid at 3856. But the wind goes light offshore from the WSW at 15 mph. That’s going to make for clean, powerful lines wrapping around the point. This is for experienced surfers only.
Friday morning and Saturday morning are the real sweet spots for the average surfer. Friday dawns glassy with no wind, and the swell is 5 feet from the SSE with a short 10-second period – not a ton of energy, but it’s clean. Saturday morning is the pick though: glassy conditions, a 6-foot SSE swell, 12-second period, and an energy reading of 1098. The wind is a light offshore from the WNW, so it’ll be a morning of super clean, fun waves. The longer period will help it wrap nicely around the point.
After that, from Sunday the 9th through the second week, it’s small and weak. The combo energy drops to 200-400, and the swell direction swings east and southerly, but the period is short and the size is around 3 feet or less. There’s a brief spike on Wednesday the 12th with a 7-foot easterly swell, but it’s a short 7-second period, which is just fat and weak. Not worth the paddle.
The best bets are Thursday morning the 6th for the big, clean, offshore stuff, or the glassy Saturday morning the 8th for the best all-round session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Wed night, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, calm by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 6°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3484 | 3363 | 5345 | 5997 | 4286 | 3610 | 2196 | 599 | 653 | 480 | 917 | 1407 | 920 | 644 | 401 | 214 | 198 | 499 | 256 | 218 | 204 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | 2:59PM1.81m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | 8:41AM0.22m | 9:21PM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  |  |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | |
 | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — |
 | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — |
mm | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Temp °C | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | -2 | -4 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | — | NE 11 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | 5 | 2635 | 1597 | 503 | 653 | 480 | 917 | 1407 | 920 | 644 | 401 | 214 | 198 | 499 | 256 | 218 | 204 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | ESE 16 | SE 15 | E 17 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SSE 10 | ESE 11 | SSE 16 | E 13 | E 13 | SE 14 | SSE 14 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | NE 6 |
| kJ | 7 | — | — | — | — | 25 | 57 | 6 | 221 | 159 | 373 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 102 | 166 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | E 18 | E 18 | SSE 14 | E 16 | SSE 18 | SE 12 | SE 13 | SSE 16 | NE 13 | SSE 15 | E 12 | NNE 3 | NE 12 | NE 5 | NE 6 | S 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 246 | 192 | 63 | 153 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | — | — | SSW 3 | SSW 4 | NE 6 |
| kJ | 3484 | 3363 | 5345 | 5997 | 4286 | 3610 | 2196 | 599 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5 | — | — | 4 | 6 | 11 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 90 | 149 | 160 | 106 | 255 | 86 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 122 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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