Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 25 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.5° C
1.6° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, SSE swell with 2,970 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 13s period with ESE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.3m 7s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 29th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 13s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 29th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 13s
Most Powerful 3AM (Tue 28th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the line for us here.

First up, we’ve got a bit of a slow start, but things shape up into a couple of real nice windows. The key spot is Last Chance, a point break that’s pretty consistent and exposed to the swell. It’s mainly for the advanced crew, so keep that in mind.

The water’s running a bit colder than usual right now, about 55°, with a temperature anomaly of -3°, so it’s noticeably cooler than what we’d normally expect for this time of year. Grab a thicker spring suit if you’ve got one.

The pattern starts off pretty lackluster. Saturday, the 25th, we’ve got some small waves around 3 ft from the east, with a 12-second period, but the wind is putting a bit of a cross-off on it. The energy is only moderate, around 210. It’s clean, but it’s not gonna get you too excited. By Sunday the 26th, the swell bumps up to 7 ft from the south, but the period drops to 8 seconds, and the wind is howling cross-off at 15 to 19 mph. The energy is strong though, over 1100, but the conditions are marginal. That one’s a pass for me.

Monday and Tuesday keep that 8 ft south-southeast swell going, but the wind is still up, and the quality is just not there. The energy is huge, over 2500 on Tuesday morning, but it’s a messy cross-off and cross-shore wind. Not the good stuff.

Then we hit Wednesday, the 29th of July. This is the real standout. The swell drops to 7 ft, but it’s from the ESE with a 13-second period, and the wind goes glassy in the morning. That’s a rare treat. The energy is very strong at 1270, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle on the calendar. Thursday the 30th keeps it going with a 5 ft ESE swell, 12-second period, and light cross-off winds. Still very clean, with energy around 656. That’s a solid session.

After that, we hit a rough patch. From Friday the 31st right through to the end of the first week of August, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore, the swell becomes inconsistent, and the quality vanishes. There’s a brief window on Sunday, August 2nd, with a 6 ft SSE swell and offshore wind, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’s not great.

The next big highlight is Monday, August 3rd. The swell jumps to 12 ft from the east, with a 10-second period, and the wind is offshore in the morning. The energy is massive, over 2600. This is big, powerful stuff. It’s excellent for experienced surfers, but at 12 ft, it’s expert-only territory. Tuesday the 4th stays solid with 8 ft east swell and clean conditions, still very strong energy.

After that, the wind swings back onshore and the surf gets messy again through the rest of the forecast. The last week is mostly a write-off with strong cross-on winds and dropping swell quality.

So, the two standouts: Wednesday, July 29th with the glassy morning and 7 ft ESE groundswell, and Monday, August 3rd for the big 12 ft east swell with offshore wind. First one is for the clean, lined-up waves, the second is for the power and size. Don’t sleep on the 29th, that’s the best quality you’ll see.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 6°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
0
3
2
1
2
2
4
2
1
3
4
2
1
3
3
1
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
E
12
0.9
E
11
0.7
ESE
16
2.1
S
8
1.2
ESE
14
1.2
ESE
13
2.5
S
8
2.5
S
9
3
SE
12
2.5
SE
12
2.5
SE
12
2.3
ESE
13
2
ESE
13
2
ESE
12
1.8
ESE
12
1.6
ESE
12
1.4
ESE
11
1.3
ESE
11
1.2
E
11
1
E
11
0.8
E
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
166
202
215
567
601
515
963
1171
2589
2044
1859
1753
1246
1158
857
636
495
430
358
242
151
Wind (km/h)
10
WNW
25
SW
40
SW
25
SW
30
SSW
25
SW
35
SW
30
SSW
25
SSW
25
SSW
25
S
15
SSE
5
S
10
ENE
15
N
10
N
5
NNW
20
NNW
15
N
15
NNE
15
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
2:36PM1.59m
2:51AM1.51m
3:22PM1.58m
3:37AM1.48m
4:08PM1.56m
4:23AM1.45m
4:53PM1.55m
5:09AM1.43m
5:37PM1.55m
5:56AM1.42m
6:22PM1.55m
6:43AM1.44m
7:06PM1.57m
Low Tide
8:50PM0.50m
9:04AM0.48m
9:37PM0.50m
9:53AM0.48m
10:23PM0.49m
10:40AM0.45m
11:08PM0.46m
11:24AM0.41m
11:53PM0.41m
12:05PM0.37m
00:38AM0.36m
12:47PM0.33m
1:23AM0.32m
cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:16
7:16
7:16
7:15
7:13
7:13
7:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:13
5:14
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:16
 mm
2
3
1
1
1
1
2
1
Temp °C
13
10
10
10
10
9
9
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
9
12
15
10
14
15
12
Feels °C
8
4
1
4
3
2
1
3
3
4
5
6
9
8
4
9
12
5
10
11
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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