Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with 3,243 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 14s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 2ft (0.6m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, same spot, but I’ll switch to feet and Fahrenheit for y’all.
Last Chance is a point break that comes alive with a south swell and west wind. The next couple of days are a bust, but hang tight—two killer windows are coming.
Water temp is 55°, running about 2° colder than normal for September. You’ll want the thick wetsuit.
This Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th? Forget it. Tiny, choppy, messy.
Saturday afternoon, things flirt with life—a 4ft south swell with a long 16-second period, cross-offshore wind. Clean lines, moderate energy. It’s a start.
The first real standout is Sunday the 13th in the a.m. A solid 8ft south groundswell, 15-second period (nice long gaps between sets, good shape for a point), and offshore WSW wind making it glassy. Energy is 2270. This is for experienced surfers only—too big for beginners. Best session of the first week, hands down.
Monday the 14th goes 6ft with a shorter 12-second period and cross-shore wind. Not the one. Tuesday the 15th has a glassy morning with 4ft SSE swell—clean but mellow.
Wednesday and Thursday are tiny and weak. Not worth the drive.
Then the second standout: Saturday the 19th, morning. A beast—8ft south swell with an extra-long 19-second period under dead calm, offshore WSW wind. Combined energy is 4610. Massive, clean, powerful groundswell at a point that will handle it perfectly. Experts only. This is the most powerful session of the whole run, but remember it’s a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed.
Sunday the 20th is still solid with 5ft glassy waves in the morning, but the energy drops. The next week shows another big pulse on the 25th and 26th with 10ft+ south swells, but onshore winds mess up the afternoons. Mornings could still be epic if you’re an expert.
Bottom line: Two absolute bangers for experts—Sunday the 13th morning and Saturday the 19th morning. The 19th is the biggest and cleanest. Beginners, sit this one out when it’s overhead.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 19 | S 18 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 10 | SSE 12 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 16 | S 15 | S 6 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 114 | 234 | 216 | 195 | 746 | 3200 | 2249 | 1476 | 832 | 1100 | 957 | 560 | 350 | 240 | 169 | 86 | 64 | 25 | 19 | 38 | 36 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | off | cross | cross-off | cross | off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 5:33PM1.75m | 6:03AM1.67m | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | 7:45AM1.75m | 8:04PM1.73m | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | 9:58AM1.72m | 10:25PM1.64m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:19AM0.11m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | 1:52PM0.24m | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | 3:51AM0.39m | 4:19PM0.39m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |  | | | |
 | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — |
 | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:59 | — |
mm | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | S 7 | S 7 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 10 | SSE 12 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSW 4 | S 15 | S 6 |
| kJ | 27 | 78 | 34 | 195 | 746 | 3200 | 2249 | 1476 | 832 | 1100 | 957 | 560 | 350 | 240 | 169 | 86 | 64 | 25 | 11 | 38 | 36 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 18 | S 18 | ENE 8 | S 6 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | E 8 | NE 12 | NE 4 | NE 5 | S 16 | NE 3 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | S 13 | S 16 | ESE 14 | S 13 |
| kJ | 57 | 234 | 216 | 14 | 52 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 32 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 19 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | ENE 13 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | ENE 8 | E 8 | NE 12 | NE 15 | E 9 | E 9 | NE 13 | ENE 12 | — | — | NE 12 | ESE 9 | NE 11 | ESE 14 |
| kJ | 114 | 21 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 15 | — | — | 5 | 8 | 5 | 20 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | — | — | S 6 | S 6 | — | — | SSW 14 | — | — | ENE 3 | — | — | — | NNE 3 | — | NNE 4 | N 3 | SW 5 | S 6 | — |
| kJ | 62 | — | — | 88 | 64 | — | — | 2436 | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 1 | 23 | 43 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 8 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 188 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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