Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 19s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, S swell with 4,537 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 19s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 19s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's comin' down the pipe.
We've got one spot on the menu: Last Chance. This is an advanced point break that's fairly consistent, and it's exposed to the swell. The optimum direction here is from the NE, so let's see how the forecast stacks up.
The action kicks off on Sunday the 19th of July with a solid start. We're looking at a 6ft S swell with a long period of 18 seconds – that's proper groundswell energy, giving you some real punchy waves. The combined energy is a strong 2761, so there's plenty of power. A light W offshore wind will keep things clean, but this is for experienced surfers only. The water temp is about average for this time of year.
Sunday afternoon backs off a touch to 6ft S swell with a 17-second period, combined energy 2055. The wind swings to a cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph, still surfable but not as pristine. The rating drops a bit, and the conditions get a little more marginal.
Monday the 20th starts with a 5ft S swell, period 15 seconds, and combined energy 1258. Cross-off wind from the SSW at 9 mph keeps it clean, but it's a touch ordinary. The afternoon brings a bigger 7ft S swell with a 19-second period and a massive 3195 combined energy – real power there. The rating is back up, but still marginal conditions with that cross-off wind.
Tuesday the 21st is a standout. Morning session has 7ft S swell, 16-second period, combined energy 2326. Offshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph – this is about as clean as it gets. This is going to be the best on offer, with excellent conditions for the experienced crew. The afternoon drops to 6ft S swell, 15-second period, combined energy 1686, but the wind goes cross at 3 mph, leaving a light ripple on the face.
Wednesday the 22nd sees a drop in size to 4ft from the SSE, 12-second period, with combined energy 524. Morning has a cross-off from the NNW at 3 mph, resulting in very good conditions. Afternoon turns onshore with 4ft S swell and only 389 combined energy – not worth paddling out.
From Thursday the 23rd through to Friday the 31st of July, it's mostly small and poor. Sizes range from 0.7ft to 5ft, periods are short, and winds are mostly cross or onshore. The combined energy drops to double digits and low triple digits. There's a brief window on Saturday the 25th with a 1ft ESE swell and a 16-second period (combined energy 142) under a moderate offshore breeze, but it's tiny. Not much to get excited about.
Then, on Sunday the 26th of July, we get another pulse. A 8ft S swell with an 8-second period – that's short period, so it'll be a bit fat and less organized. Combined energy is 1134, with a moderate offshore wind at 16 mph. The surf is clean, but that short period and size (over 5ft) mean it's still for experienced surfers. The afternoon and Monday the 27th see size up to 8ft, but winds pick up to 19-25 mph from the SSW and SW, making it cross-off and marginal.
Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th taper off. Wednesday morning the 29th looks good for a glassy session – 5ft from the SE, 9-second period, combined energy 595, and glass-like conditions. It's a nice window for a dawn patrol but not a standout.
Thursday the 30th of July through to Saturday the 1st of August is mostly poor with onshore and cross-onshore winds, small swell, and low energy. Sunday the 2nd of August offers a glimmer with a 2ft S swell and a 12-second period under a light W offshore breeze – combined energy 365, good conditions but small. The afternoon picks up to 5ft S swell, 11 seconds, combined energy 879, but cross-off wind.
Monday the 3rd of August brings the last call of the outlook. A 7ft S swell with a 16-second period and a massive 2900 combined energy. Cross-off wind from the SW at 12 mph. The conditions are marginal but the power is definitely there for those who can handle it.
So, the standout is definitely Tuesday the 21st of July, morning session. That's the one to circle. The other notable is the initial push on Sunday the 19th. The rest is a mix of average, marginal, and poor, with a few small, clean windows for a quiet paddle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | E 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3822 | 2300 | 1682 | 1120 | 984 | 2865 | 4255 | 2231 | 1589 | 824 | 461 | 347 | 270 | 212 | 146 | 42 | 10 | 23 | 29 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | E 8 |
| kJ | 3822 | 2300 | 1682 | 1120 | 984 | 2865 | 4255 | 2231 | 1589 | 824 | 461 | 347 | 270 | 212 | 146 | 42 | 8 | 18 | 29 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | NE 6 |
| kJ | 586 | 461 | 373 | 258 | 203 | 156 | 130 | 95 | 97 | 66 | 63 | 42 | 20 | 39 | 39 | 22 | 10 | 23 | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | E 6 | SE 11 | SSE 9 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 9 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 3 | S 5 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 5 | NE 5 | — |
| kJ | — | — | 4 | 28 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 7 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 46 | 71 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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