
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, ESE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 14s period, SE swell with 1,824 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 23 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 13s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.2m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 7s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.
The first real surf window to get excited about is a short one, but it's got some magic. We're looking at the point break, Last Chance, and it's an advanced, fairly consistent spot that likes a NE swell, so we'll keep that in mind.
Wednesday afternoon, the 22nd of July, is the kick-off. The water's sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you'll want a good hood. The wind is a glassy 3 mph from the East, and we've got a 3 ft swell from the South with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 342. It's not huge, but for a glassy afternoon session with clean lines, it's a solid little start. The standout here is the conditions. The wind is dead flat, the waves are clean, and the water is smooth. It's a pure, clean point break session.
Thursday through Saturday, the 23rd to the 25th, the surf drops off. It's small and messy with onshore winds, so not worth paddling out. We get a bit of a bump again on Saturday morning the 25th of July, with a 3 ft East swell at 11 seconds, but a 9 mph cross-offshore wind will keep it clean. The energy is moderate at 192, but it's a small wave. It's a tricky one.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The real standouts are in the following week. Monday the 27th of July is a building swell, but it's still a bit raw. The first true standout is Tuesday the 28th of July. The morning session is the pick of the whole forecast. We've got a 7 ft swell from the SE with a 14-second period, and the wind is a light 9 mph offshore from the WSW. The combined energy is pumping at 1870, a strong wave. That's a proper groundswell with a long period and clean offshore wind. This is a point break, so that long period will wrap in beautifully. The size is over 8 ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. It's a big, powerful day. The Tuesday afternoon is also good, with a 7 ft swell and the same offshore wind, but the morning is the magic window.
Wednesday the 29th of July is still decent, but the wind turns cross-shore and cross-on, so it gets a bit chop. The 30th of July, Thursday, has a nice clean morning with a 5 ft ESE swell and a 12-second period and a light 9 mph cross-offshore wind. The energy is 608, moderate. It's a good, clean day.
Then we hit a rough patch. From the 31st of July through the 2nd of August, the wind turns nasty with strong breezes and near-gale force, and the swell gets huge and messy. It's a write-off for paddle surfing. The swell is over 10 ft, and the wind is howling. This looks more interesting for kite surfing.
The end of the forecast, around the 6th of August, shows a bit of promise. The morning of Thursday the 6th of August is glassy again with a 6 ft SSE swell. The wind is dead calm, 3 mph from the WNW. The energy is moderate at 905. It's a clean, glassy day with solid waves. It's a long way out, so it's a hopeful one, but it's a good note to end on.
Overall, the clear winner is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July at Last Chance. Big, clean, offshore, and powerful. That's the one to circle on the calendar. The glassy sessions on the 22nd and the 6th are the next best bets for a clean, smooth ride.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Sat afternoon, min 5°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | E 8 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 16 | S 8 | S 9 | S 9 | ESE 13 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | SE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
299 | 334 | 144 | 89 | 35 | 32 | 34 | 112 | 160 | 195 | 217 | 417 | 586 | 654 | 703 | 986 | 1224 | 1824 | 1471 | 1188 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | 3:22PM1.58m | 3:37AM1.48m | 4:08PM1.56m | 4:23AM1.45m | 4:53PM1.55m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | 9:53AM0.48m | 10:23PM0.49m | 10:40AM0.45m | 11:08PM0.46m | |||||||
— | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | |
5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | ENE 4 | SSE 10 | E 8 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 14 | E 12 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | SE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 |
299 | 334 | 144 | 89 | 11 | 32 | 34 | 112 | 160 | 195 | 108 | 297 | 190 | 442 | 510 | 986 | 1224 | 1824 | 1471 | 1188 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 10 | ENE 6 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | NE 6 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | E 10 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
42 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 35 | 12 | 28 | 16 | 16 | 117 | 217 | 51 | 220 | 523 | 703 | 380 | 245 | 46 | 44 | 21 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 4 | ESE 12 | E 4 | SSE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | N 10 | S 16 | SSW 15 | S 14 | — | S 14 | S 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 |
1 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 43 | 16 | — | 15 | 32 | 140 | 100 | 46 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | N 3 | N 3 | NNE 4 | WNW 3 | SW 4 | SSW 7 | S 8 | S 9 | S 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 24 | 500 | 417 | 586 | 654 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 93 | 31 | 31 | 88 | 31 | 31 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










