Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 16 Oct 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 18 Oct, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 17 Oct, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, SSE swell with 2,566 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 18 Oct, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 14s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Oct 18) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Oct 17) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 15s period and expected on Saturday (Oct 17) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 18th Oct) | 6ft (1.9m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 18th Oct) | 6ft (1.9m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sat 17th Oct) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Fri night, calm by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon night, min 11°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 17 | Sunday 18 | Monday 19 | Tuesday 20 | Wednesday 21 | Thursday 22 | Friday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 13 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 14 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 11 | S 11 | S 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2467 | 2204 | 1787 | 1016 | 606 | 1003 | 1078 | 1028 | 1048 | 999 | 564 | 991 | 602 | 383 | 577 | 339 | 188 | 96 | 160 | 160 | 404 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:10AM1.64m | 11:36PM1.53m | 11:56AM1.57m | 00:19AM1.46m | 12:44PM1.51m | 1:03AM1.39m | 1:32PM1.46m | 1:51AM1.36m | 2:20PM1.44m | 2:41AM1.36m | 3:07PM1.45m | 3:32AM1.39m | 3:55PM1.49m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:01AM0.46m | 5:33PM0.43m | 5:45AM0.46m | 6:18PM0.43m | 6:29AM0.46m | 7:04PM0.42m | 7:13AM0.45m | 7:50PM0.40m | 7:59AM0.44m | 8:35PM0.37m | 8:50AM0.42m | 9:21PM0.35m | 9:43AM0.39m | 10:08PM0.33m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:29 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:32 | — | — | 7:34 | — |
mm | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
Feels °C | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SE 10 | NE 12 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 14 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 11 | S 11 | S 12 |
| kJ | 85 | 898 | 5 | 224 | 405 | 1003 | 1078 | 1028 | 1048 | 999 | 564 | 991 | 602 | 383 | 577 | 339 | 188 | 96 | 160 | 160 | 404 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 13 | NE 12 | NE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | NE 4 | NE 10 | S 16 | NE 3 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 13 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | S 14 | NE 11 | ENE 10 | NE 4 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 134 | 96 | 51 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 334 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | ESE 6 | NE 10 | ENE 10 | NE 16 | E 15 | — | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 11 | E 8 | — | ENE 10 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 4 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | — | 10 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | — | — | — | NNE 4 | SW 3 | — | NNE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 3 | NE 3 | — |
| kJ | 2467 | 2204 | 1787 | 1016 | 606 | — | — | — | 11 | 2 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 101 | 318 | 93 | 100 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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