Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 19s period, S swell with 4,097 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.4m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s shaping up for Last Chance.
We’ve got a solid run of surf coming in, but it’s definitely for the more experienced crew. Water temp is sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don’t forget a good hood if you’re heading out.
The action kicks off Sunday afternoon, July 19th. We’ve got a 6ft south swell with a very long period of 17 seconds, so it’s proper groundswell. The energy is strong (2055), but the wind is a moderate cross-offshore. It’s clean, but the tide might be a bit tricky. The real standout is Monday morning, July 20th. That’s when you’ll find 6ft south swell at 15 seconds, with a gentle cross-off breeze. The energy is still strong (1631), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. That’s the pick of the early window.
Tuesday morning, July 21st, is also a beauty. We’re looking at 7ft south swell, 16 seconds, and a light offshore wind from the WSW. That’s going to be clean and powerful (2298 energy). The afternoon gets a bit smaller and more cross-onshore, so morning is the move.
The surf eases off Wednesday and Thursday, but the standout of the whole forecast is Monday morning, July 27th. We’ve got a 4ft south swell with a fresh offshore wind, but the real magic is Monday afternoon. That’s when the swell jumps to 10ft from the south, but the period drops to just 8 seconds. That’s a short-period, beastly swell, and with a strong offshore wind, it’s going to be a challenge. The energy is strong (1371), but that’s for experts only. Be careful out there.
After that, the wind gets howling into near-gale force through Tuesday, July 28th, with 10ft swell, so that’s a no-go for paddling. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup. The swell settles back down into the 3ft to 5ft range from Wednesday, July 29th, through to the end of the first week of August, with clean conditions and light winds, but nothing that will blow your socks off.
The final week brings a few promising days. Saturday morning, August 1st, has glassy conditions with a 3ft south swell at a very long 15 seconds. That’s a slow, clean morning for a point break. Then Monday, August 3rd, has a 6ft SSE swell at 7 seconds, with a gentle offshore wind. It’s a bit short-period, but the conditions are good.
All in all, the best surf is definitely the Monday morning (July 20th) and Tuesday morning (July 21st). The Monday afternoon (July 27th) is the big one for experts. Keep your eyes on the winds, and stay safe out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the W by Fri night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | E 10 | SE 17 | ESE 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1682 | 1120 | 1428 | 2865 | 3758 | 2203 | 1589 | 824 | 453 | 294 | 309 | 195 | 79 | 37 | 32 | 28 | 16 | 31 | 73 | 158 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — |
 | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | E 7 | SSW 7 | E 9 | ESE 15 |
| kJ | 1682 | 1120 | 1428 | 2865 | 3758 | 2203 | 1589 | 824 | 453 | 294 | 309 | 195 | 79 | 37 | 32 | 28 | 8 | 35 | 27 | 158 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | S 11 | NE 4 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | SSE 9 | E 10 | SSW 6 | E 10 |
| kJ | 373 | 258 | 203 | 156 | 143 | 95 | 97 | 66 | 43 | 42 | 20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 53 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | — | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | SSE 9 | SE 17 | S 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | — | 23 | 21 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 73 | 46 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 4 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | NW 2 | N 3 | N 3 | SW 4 | — | NNW 2 | NW 3 |
| kJ | 17 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | — | 1 | 5 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 102 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 71 | 71 | 457 | 343 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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