Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s headed our way down at Last Chance.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the waiting is gonna be worth it if you’ve got patience. The opening days are pretty average, but the back half of the outlook is where the real story is, especially for the crew who can handle some size.

Friday 10th July is a write-off, honestly. Strong south wind at 22 mph, lumpy cross-chop, and a messy 13ft SE swell. The combined energy is way up there at (2995), but it’s just a chore. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday 11th July cleans up a bit. The swell drops to 7ft from the SE, period’s a short 9 seconds, and the wind goes cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph. Cleaner faces, but it’s still a bit of a handful.

Sunday 12th July morning is the first real bright spot. Swell settles to 5ft from the SE, with a light WSW cross-off at 9 mph. It’s clean, and the energy is moderate (595). The water is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so don’t forget the thick wetsuit.

From Monday 13th through to Wednesday 15th, it’s a flat spell. Tiny waves, periods getting long but no power. Wednesday morning is glassy but with only 1ft – there’s nothing to surf.

Thursday 16th July morning kicks off a new pulse. We get a 3ft ESE swell, but the period is a whopping 18 seconds, making it a very long groundswell. Energy is moderate (566), and with a light cross-off from the NW, it’s clean. This kind of period is best at a point break like Last Chance, so it’ll handle the long lines well. The standout for the first week.

Friday 17th July through Saturday 18th sees the swell build to 6ft, still with decent periods (14-15 seconds). The wind is cross-off from the SW, but it’s getting fresh (16-22 mph), so it’s a bit blustery. Clean but with a push of power.

Sunday 19th July morning is a cracker. Swell is 3ft from the ESE, period 12 seconds, and the wind is light offshore from the W at 6 mph. Glassy, clean, and the energy is moderate (596). This is a proper session.

Monday 20th July afternoon is the big one for the second week. Swell jumps to 8ft from the E, period 9 seconds, with a cross-off wind from the SW. The energy is strong (1195), and it’s flagged as excellent for experienced surfers. This is waves for the crew who can handle it. Over 8ft – that’s expert territory.

Tuesday 21st keeps the size at 8-8ft from the ESE, with a light cross-shore wind. Still plenty of juice, but the crowds might be around – it’s a spot that can get busy.

Wednesday 22nd July morning is the absolute standout of the whole 16 days. Glassy conditions, 13ft SSE swell, period 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive (5358). This is exceptional, but it’s only for the experts. The swell direction is a touch south of optimum, but with that size and glass, it’s gonna be a day to remember.

Thursday 23rd to Friday 24th drops back to 10ft then 8ft, with clean cross-off winds. Still good for experienced surfers.

Saturday 25th July morning winds down the run with a clean 5ft ESE swell, offshore wind, and moderate energy (505). A nice way to finish.

So, if you’re picking one or two, I’d set my alarm for Thursday 16th July morning for the long period groundswell and that clean NW wind, and definitely Wednesday 22nd July morning for the glassy, massive 13ft SSE swell – if you’ve got the skills.

Rusty.

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