Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First up, we’ve got Last Chance. This is a break for the advanced crew – a point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the open ocean. The water’s sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent hood or a thick suit.

The start of the week is a bit of a mixed bag. Tuesday, the 28th, has some solid 8ft SE swell rolling in with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is pumping at 2589 (moderate wave energy). But, the wind is a cross-off SSW breeze at 12 mph, and the call is "marginal" – it’s clean but the conditions might be tricky. Not the best, but there’s something there.

Wednesday morning, the 29th, is where it starts to get interesting. The swell drops a touch to 6ft from the ESE, still a solid 13-second period, and the energy is down to 1124 (moderate). But the wind flips to a glassy N at just 3 mph. That’s the good stuff. The notes say "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is a standout window. Clean, lined-up, and you’ll have the place to yourself crowd-wise if you’re lucky. The swell direction (ESE) isn’t the absolute optimum NE, but with that glass and the quality of the setup, it’s the pick of the early days.

Wednesday afternoon and Thursday see the swell fade and the wind turn more onshore or cross-off, so quality drops. By Friday the 31st, we’re down to 3ft and 3ft – small and clean but not really worth the paddle.

Then there’s a big gap. From Saturday, the 1st of August, through to Monday the 4th, the surf is either too small, blowing a gale, or just plain messy. There’s a big spike on Sunday the 2nd with 13ft S swell and 4083 energy (strong), but the wind is howling at 19-25 mph and it’s light rain. That’s a mess – more for kites than paddles.

The next real chance comes around Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August. Thursday morning, the 6th, is a beaut. Clean 4ft from the SSE with a 12-second period, combined energy 519 (moderate), and a glassy WSW offshore wind at 3 mph. The notes say "expect very good surf conditions." That’s our second standout. It’s a smaller day, but the conditions will be pristine. The swell direction is off the optimum, but the offshore wind and the point break setup should make for some smooth, long rides.

After that, it gets wild again. Friday the 7th afternoon sees a massive 16ft swell from the S at a 15-second period, with a combined energy of 11601 (very strong). That’s a monster. The call is that it’s too big for this break, even for the experts. The wind is cross-on, so it’s just going to be a washing machine. For the rest of the second week, from the 8th to the 12th, we’re looking at a long run of poor conditions – strong onshore winds, rain, and messy seas. The swell is all over the place, but the wind kills it.

Bottom line: The best windows are Wednesday morning, July 29th for that glassy, clean 6ft ESE swell, and Thursday morning, August 6th for the offshore, clean 4ft SSE groundswell. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too big. Get out there for those two windows, and you’ll score.

Rusty.

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