Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 21 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.2° C
1.5° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 27 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, S swell with 1,858 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 22 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 12s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.1m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 9s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Sat 22nd Aug)4ft (1.2m) 12s
Best Surf 9PM (Mon 24th Aug)7ft (2.1m) 14s
Most Powerful 3AM (Thu 27th Aug)7ft (2.1m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s in the water for this stretch.

We’re staring at Last Chance, a point break that needs a good south swell and the right wind. The first few days are a no-go. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are tiny and weak, so leave the board at home. Monday the 24th is a mixed bag. The morning serves up a clean 4ft S swell with offshore wind, but the period is a short 9 seconds, so the energy is moderate (311). The afternoon bumps up to 5ft but the wind turns onshore, ruining the fun.

The one to circle is Thursday the 27th morning. Glassy conditions, clear skies, and a solid 6ft S groundswell with a 13-second period. The combined energy is a strong 1203, and the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. For a point break, that long period will groove some proper lines, but it’ll have some punch. If you’re not solid on your backhand, maybe sit this one out.

Tuesday the 25th is also a stunner. The morning has a clean 4ft S swell, 12-second period, with a cross-off breeze, and the energy is a solid 549. Water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild. The afternoon glass-off is a dream, with 4ft and a glassy surface.

After that, things get rowdy. The end of the month and into early September sees a big jump. On Wednesday the 2nd of September, the afternoon hits 15ft S swell—way too big for this spot, and the wind picks up. That’s for the kamikaze crew only. The next few days are blown out with strong winds until the 6th of September, when Sunday morning brings a clean 6ft S swell, 12-second period, and offshore wind. That’s another one for the experienced.

So, bottom line: Thursday the 27th is the standout. Tuesday the 25th is a close second. The rest of the window is either flat, windy, or oversized. Pick your session wisely.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
2
2
4
3
2
2
2
1
4
4
3
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
S
13
1.1
S
12
1
S
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.7
SSE
10
0.5
SSE
10
0.3
ESE
13
1.3
S
9
1.6
S
14
1.9
S
14
1.3
S
12
1.1
S
12
0.8
S
11
0.7
S
17
0.8
S
16
1.7
S
15
1.8
S
13
1.6
S
14
1.3
SSE
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
582
347
274
210
115
56
33
276
1002
1463
513
339
151
278
301
1246
1172
1048
554
Wind (km/h)
15
N
5
N
5
NNE
20
WNW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
W
10
W
10
ENE
10
NW
5
NW
5
E
10
NW
5
WNW
10
ESE
5
NNW
5
N
10
ENE
15
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
glassy
on
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
off
High Tide
00:35AM1.57m
1:06PM1.58m
1:22AM1.51m
1:56PM1.54m
2:10AM1.45m
2:43PM1.52m
2:58AM1.40m
3:28PM1.49m
3:46AM1.38m
4:13PM1.49m
4:33AM1.38m
4:59PM1.50m
Low Tide
6:49AM0.45m
7:20PM0.47m
7:35AM0.46m
8:10PM0.48m
8:23AM0.46m
8:57PM0.47m
9:11AM0.44m
9:43PM0.43m
10:00AM0.41m
10:29PM0.39m
10:48AM0.36m
11:15PM0.34m
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:46
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:39
6:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:36
5:37
5:37
5:38
5:39
5:40
 mm
Temp °C
10
14
16
12
15
16
12
13
13
12
15
16
14
15
15
14
17
18
16
Feels °C
6
12
14
8
9
11
7
11
10
9
13
14
11
13
12
11
15
16
14
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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