
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, S swell with 5,605 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 4 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sat 4th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, grab your board, let's talk surf. Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown for the next couple of weeks at one spot that’s got a very specific window.
Right now, things are pretty flat and messy. We’ve got a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions kicking off from early July. There’s a bit of energy showing but the wind and swell direction just aren’t playing nice. The water is sitting at 55°F and that’s about 3°F colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll feel that bite straight away.
Last Chance is an exposed point break for advanced surfers, and it’s fairly consistent. It needs a NE swell and it’s been getting a lot of east energy, which isn’t its best angle. The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday, July 7th. That morning it turns glassy with a clean 5ft easterly swell and a 10-second period. The energy is moderate. It’s a small, clean day, but worth a look if you’re keen.
A better window opens on Wednesday morning, July 8th. Again, glassy conditions, 6ft easterly swell. It’s not the optimum direction for the point but with zero wind, it will be a joy to surf. Crowds are always possible here, so get in early.
Then things get a bit wild. Around Friday, July 10th, we get a massive pulse of swell from the south, but it’s way too much for this break. You’re looking at 16ft on the morning with a stormy 25 mph wind. The afternoon cleans up but the swell is still huge at 15ft—this is expert-only territory, and honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
After that big blow, the surf settles back down. The real standout window is Wednesday, July 15th. The morning is glassy with a 5ft easterly swell at a very long 12-second period. The energy is strong. That afternoon is also glassy, with 6ft from the ESE at 12 seconds and even more juice. These are excellent conditions for experienced surfers.
The best on offer? I’d put my money on Thursday afternoon, July 16th. Clean, light cross-off wind, a solid 12ft of NE groundswell at 9 seconds. The energy is very strong. The direction is finally matching what Last Chance wants. That is a proper session for the crew who can handle it.
Into the final weekend, another standout is Friday morning, July 17th. Light offshore wind, 12ft easterly swell. Clean, powerful, and a great way to finish the run.
So, a slow start, a dangerous middle, but some absolutely perfect sessions in the second week if you’re patient. Get out on that 15th or 16th and you’ll be smiling.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, fresh winds from the SW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | E 10 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 9 | S 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
689 | 646 | 594 | 459 | 458 | 527 | 306 | 245 | 490 | 624 | 348 | 349 | 354 | 500 | 552 | 500 | 440 | 327 | 273 | 2027 | 5605 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 8:17PM1.58m | 8:43AM1.46m | 9:00PM1.57m | 9:24AM1.48m | 9:44PM1.57m | 10:05AM1.50m | 10:30PM1.58m | 10:48AM1.53m | 11:16PM1.60m | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:37AM0.35m | 2:42PM0.37m | 3:19AM0.32m | 3:27PM0.35m | 4:02AM0.31m | 4:14PM0.35m | 4:46AM0.31m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:32AM0.31m | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | |
4:57 | — | — | 4:57 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | 5:00 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 2 |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | E 10 | S 15 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 |
689 | 646 | 594 | 459 | 458 | 527 | 306 | 245 | 4 | 624 | 348 | 349 | 354 | 500 | 552 | 500 | 440 | 327 | 273 | 260 | 216 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 17 | S 16 | S 22 | S 20 | SSW 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 17 | S 17 | — | — |
24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 39 | 185 | 212 | 168 | 116 | 56 | 116 | 52 | 92 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | SSW 15 | N 11 | N 11 | — | S 16 | S 10 | NE 10 | — | S 13 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | SW 12 | NE 7 | — | — |
5 | 21 | 2 | 2 | — | 5 | 2 | 4 | — | 3 | 105 | 91 | 82 | 75 | 99 | 88 | 47 | 40 | 14 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NE 4 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 6 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | NNW 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 4 | SSW 4 | WSW 4 | S 8 | S 6 | S 9 | S 11 |
— | — | — | 19 | 122 | 286 | 104 | 56 | 490 | 10 | — | — | — | — | 10 | 28 | 9 | 181 | 215 | 2027 | 5605 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 78 | 103 | 149 | 153 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











