Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.

The forecast opens with a proper swell hitting Last Chance. This is an exposed point break, and right from Monday the 20th of July, we’re looking at a solid S swell pushing 6 ft, with a very long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with a combined energy reading of 1631 (moderate wave energy), there’s plenty of grunt. The water’s sitting at 55°, about 2° colder than normal for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a bite to it. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze, keeping things clean for the advanced crew. This is top-shelf, expert-only stuff right out of the gate.

Monday afternoon picks up even more, with the swell jumping to 7 ft, but the tide and conditions get a bit questionable. Still, the period stretches out to 19 seconds – that’s seriously long-period energy that will hold up beautifully on this point. Tuesday morning, the 21st, keeps that 7 ft S swell going with a 16-second period and clean cross-offshore wind. This whole first run is the standout of the entire forecast. For experienced surfers, this is as good as it gets right now.

Things ease off by Wednesday the 22nd. The swell drops to around 4 ft from the SSE with a 12-second period, but the wind turns glassy. The energy drops to 512, so it’s much weaker, but it’ll be clean and fun for a paddle. Not a standout, but a nice breather.

From Thursday the 23rd, the wave heights start to fade away into nothing, and we hit a real quiet spell. By Friday the 24th and into the weekend, we’re looking at tiny surf – 1 ft and less – with no real energy (combined energy down to 49 and 43). That’s a flat spell that lasts a few days.

Then, hold on. Sunday the 26th of July gets interesting again, but in a heavy way. The afternoon brings a massive pulse of S swell at 15 ft with a 12-second period. The combined energy hits 5779 (strong wave energy), but with near-gale-force cross-offshore winds, it’s going to be a messy, dangerous beast. Not for paddling – that’s a kite-surfing setup if anything. Monday the 27th keeps that big swell in the 13 ft range, with winds still strong but clean. That’s for the absolute experts only; well over 8 ft, it’s a no-go zone for anyone else.

After that big pulse, the surf drops back down to 3–5 ft through the end of July and into the start of August. Winds are mostly cross-offshore or offshore, keeping conditions clean. You’ve got some decent 5 ft ESE groundswell on the 29th of July with a 13-second period and offshore wind – a solid, clean window. The 31st of July Friday morning looks promising too, with a 4 ft S swell and a long 17-second period, with clean offshore wind (combined energy 1698 – moderate to strong). That’s a good, sneaky session.

By the time we hit the 1st of August and beyond, it fizzles out again. Swells shrink to under 3 ft, the winds get strong out of the SW, and the energy dries up. The period drops to short, weak stuff. Nothing worth chasing there.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best on offer is that Monday-Tuesday run (20th-21st July) with the solid S groundswell, long period, and clean wind at Last Chance. That’s the call. The late July window on the 29th and 31st is a solid second shout. Everything else is either flat, too windy, or for the die-hards only.

Cheers,
Rusty

Read more