Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 27 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 18s period, S swell with 2,222 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 1.9m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 30) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Mon 24th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Thu 27th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got the lowdown on what’s coming our way at Last Chance. This is a demanding, advanced point break that takes a south swell, and it’s about to get interesting.
The next few days are a mixed bag, but the real magic is hiding in the second week. There’s a solid run of surfable waves, but patience is key.
Monday morning, August 24th kicks things off with clean waves averaging 5ft from the south, period at 9 seconds, and a light offshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (348). It’s a solid start, but not the headline act.
Tuesday morning, August 25th is glassy—wind is dead from the northwest—with 4ft south swell. The period bumps up to 12 seconds, giving the waves more shape and punch. Energy is moderate (465). This is a clean, fun morning session.
Wednesday morning, August 26th is another glassy winner. The swell is 3ft from the south, but the period stretches to a very long 17 seconds. That’s groundswell energy, and it shows in the combined energy reading of 624. This will be a much better wave, especially at this point break.
Thursday morning, August 27th is the first real standout. We’ve got glassy conditions, 5ft of south swell, and a very long 18-second period. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1202. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers—clean, powerful, and lined up. The afternoon sees the swell bump to 6ft, but the cross-onshore wind chops it up.
The weekend is a bit of a washout with smaller, shorter-period swell and cross-offshore winds. Sunday morning, August 30th offers a clean 4ft with a solid offshore, but it’s nothing to write home about.
Now, hold onto your board, because Wednesday morning, September 2nd is a big one. The swell jumps to 10ft from the south with a 17-second period. The combined energy is a massive 4812. This is expert territory, and it’s clean. Not for the faint of heart.
But the real monster is Friday morning, September 4th. We’re looking at 12ft of south swell with a 21-second period. The combined energy reading is a staggering 10328. The wind is a light cross-offshore, keeping it clean. This is an exceptional, powerful, long-period groundswell that will be a true test of skill at this advanced point. It’s the best on offer, but it’s more than a week out, so keep an eye on the forecast.
After that, it drops off into smaller, choppier conditions through the second week, with a few clean scraps but nothing that matches the Thursday and Friday standouts.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | S 9 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 18 | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
34 | 313 | 428 | 903 | 430 | 285 | 428 | 587 | 488 | 387 | 1183 | 2222 | 1422 | 836 | 590 | 339 | 265 | 270 | 193 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:10AM1.45m | 2:43PM1.52m | 2:58AM1.40m | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:23AM0.46m | 8:57PM0.47m | 9:11AM0.44m | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | |||||||
— | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
Feels °C | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | S 9 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 18 | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | S 6 |
34 | 313 | 428 | 903 | 430 | 285 | 428 | 587 | 488 | 387 | 1183 | 2222 | 1422 | 836 | 590 | 339 | 265 | 270 | 132 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 9 | ESE 13 | S 7 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | S 18 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 12 | E 15 | NNE 5 | SSE 15 | NNE 5 | SSE 11 |
8 | 34 | 88 | 35 | 33 | 55 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 29 | 12 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 86 | 2 | 193 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 4 | NE 5 | ESE 13 | E 11 | NNE 4 | ESE 13 | NNE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 3 | SE 13 | — | E 16 | SE 15 | NE 9 | E 5 | ESE 14 | NE 10 | ENE 10 |
2 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | — | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 10 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 3 | — | — | NE 4 | W 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | ENE 15 | NNE 3 | NNE 6 | N 7 | S 2 | SSW 6 |
2 | — | — | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 45 | 3 | 60 | 23 | 1 | 160 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











