Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 22 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 14s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 24 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 14s period, S swell with 1,531 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 8s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 23) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Mon 24th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for Last Chance. This is a point break that needs a decent south swell to get going, and it looks like we’ve got a few windows of opportunity.
We’re starting off a bit flat. The first day or two are pretty much a write-off with small, weak, short-period junk. But hang tight, because things turn around on Monday the 24th of August. The early glass-off that morning brings in clean, 4ft surf from the south with a moderate wave energy (255). It’s not epic, but it’s a start.
The real standout for the first week is Tuesday the 25th of August. We’ve got a solid 4ft south swell, with a long 13-second period. The wind is glassy off the WSW in the morning, making for some very good, clean conditions. The combined energy is a solid moderate (580). This is your best bet for a proper session without the crowds being too heavy.
The run of good conditions continues right through the end of the week. Thursday the 27th of August sees another strong south groundswell, 4ft with a very long 16-second period, under glassy skies in the afternoon. The energy is up there (827). These sets will have real push, but the long period might make it a bit walled-up at the point; still, it’ll be a fun, powerful wave.
Now, looking into the second week, we are building toward a monster. Tuesday the 1st of September is the big one. The morning shows a 7ft south swell, with a massive 19-second period. That combined energy reading is 2865, which is very strong, serious groundswell. It’s only for experienced surfers at this size. By the afternoon, it’s pushing 8ft from the south with a 17-second period, glassy conditions, and the energy jumps to 3229. This is the absolute highlight of the entire outlook; it’s excellent for those who can handle it. Keep in mind, this is a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.
After that peak, the swell hangs around but gets a little messier with cross-off winds and some onshore chop, though there are still some clean windows. Monday the 7th of September morning has another solid 7ft south groundswell with a 14-second period and clean cross-off wind, giving us a strong energy reading (1684) – another session for the experienced crew.
Overall, the first week has some real gems with clean, fun waves, and the second week offers a true, powerful swell window for the experts. Don’t sleep on that first half of the week.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | ESE 13 | S 9 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 15 | S 15 | S 15 | S 16 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
210 | 115 | 56 | 33 | 220 | 984 | 1279 | 546 | 344 | 198 | 161 | 371 | 362 | 864 | 791 | 1174 | 836 | 494 | 345 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 1:22AM1.51m | 1:56PM1.54m | 2:10AM1.45m | 2:43PM1.52m | 2:58AM1.40m | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | |||||||
Low Tide | 7:35AM0.46m | 8:10PM0.48m | 8:23AM0.46m | 8:57PM0.47m | 9:11AM0.44m | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | |||||||
— | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSW 5 | S 9 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 15 | S 15 | S 16 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 |
210 | 115 | 56 | 16 | 220 | 984 | 1279 | 546 | 344 | 198 | 98 | 371 | 362 | 864 | 791 | 1174 | 836 | 494 | 345 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 4 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | S 15 | S 15 | ESE 13 | NE 4 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SE 16 | SE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 |
29 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 4 | 33 | 32 | 157 | 161 | 33 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 18 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | E 13 | S 17 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | — | ESE 13 | NE 4 | SE 13 | ESE 12 | S 18 | E 10 | ESE 12 | SE 13 | ESE 11 | E 16 | NE 10 | NE 9 | NE 9 |
2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | 35 | 1 | 42 | 29 | 101 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 2 | N 3 | N 4 | — | — | NE 5 | NNE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | — | — | NE 10 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NE 5 |
1 | 2 | 9 | — | — | 1 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | 27 | 3 | 10 | 12 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











