Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SSE swell with 5,611 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 01) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s check out the next couple of weeks.
It starts off a bit slow, but don’t count it out. The first real session to think about is on Sunday afternoon, the 2nd of August. The swell is running 7ft from the SSE with a period of 11 seconds, so there’s a decent amount of energy in the water (combined energy of all swells directed here: 1192). The wind is a light breeze from the southwest, keeping things clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers, but at that size, beginners should stay on the sand.
The water temperature at Last Chance is 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit.
Now, the standout window is mid-week. Tuesday the 4th of August, in the afternoon, the swell jumps to 12ft from the SSE with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s a ton of energy (5617) and it’s a proper groundswell. This is big, clean, and only for experts. The wind is cross-off from the southwest, so it’ll be well-shaped, though with that long period, it might be a bit straight for a beach break – but Last Chance being a point, it should handle it just fine.
Thursday the 6th of August morning is another good one. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft from the SSE, with a 12-second period. The wind is offshore from the WSW, making for clean, lined-up waves. Combined energy is 1128, and it’s listed as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a good day to aim for.
After that, things get messy. A strong onshore wind kicks in from the 8th of August right through the 10th, and the quality drops hard. Those days are a write-off for paddle surfing.
The second week has a glimmer of hope. Thursday the 13th of August morning brings a 6ft swell from the east, 11-second period, with light wind and clean conditions. It’s not huge, but it’s a solid option for experienced surfers. Then Friday the 14th of August morning is glassy with a 6ft east swell – that’s a nice, clean morning session, even if it’s not the biggest.
The last few days of the forecast, from the 15th of August onwards, are back to poor conditions with choppy onshore winds, so not much to get excited about.
Overall, the best bet is the Tuesday the 4th of August afternoon for the big stuff, and the Thursday the 6th of August morning for a more user-friendly, clean session. Keep an eye on the wind, but there’s some proper surf to be had.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Sat afternoon, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the SW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 12 | S 15 | SSE 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 202 | 161 | 116 | 951 | 3133 | 3476 | 1805 | 1163 | 685 | 451 | 263 | 243 | 1225 | 5611 | 3806 | 2656 | 2907 | 1771 | 1102 | 799 | 310 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — |
 | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Feels °C | 10 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 11 | E 10 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 12 | S 15 | SSE 15 | S 14 | S 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SE 10 |
| kJ | 202 | 161 | 116 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 1805 | 1163 | 685 | 451 | 263 | 243 | 1225 | 5611 | 3806 | 2656 | 2907 | 1771 | 1102 | 799 | 310 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NNE 6 | SE 15 | SE 16 | NE 17 | NE 16 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 20 | SE 9 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NE 11 | ESE 15 | SE 15 | S 11 |
| kJ | 56 | 12 | 57 | 119 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 37 | 69 | 86 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 34 | 240 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | SE 15 | NE 6 | NE 17 | NE 17 | E 10 | NE 16 | NE 15 | S 19 | NE 13 | NE 13 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | SE 14 |
| kJ | 32 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 46 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 4 | 4 | 47 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 7 | WNW 3 | WNW 3 | S 9 | S 11 | S 13 | — | — | — | WNW 3 | W 3 | SSW 6 | S 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 |
| kJ | 166 | 3 | 3 | 951 | 3133 | 3476 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 506 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 103 | 72 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 9 | 88 | 78 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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