Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with 4,640 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 7s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Tue 7th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Last Chance has in store for us over the next few weeks.
We’ve got a slow start here, with nothing really worth paddling out for on Monday the 6th. The swell is messy and the wind isn't doing us any favours. It’s a bit of a wait, but things start to turn around come Tuesday the 7th.
The first real standout of the period is shaping up for Wednesday the 8th. Tuesday the 7th morning is looking glassy with a 5ft easterly swell, and the afternoon cleans up nicely, but Wednesday is where you want to be. We’ve got a solid 7ft easterly swell rolling in with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind is light and cross-offshore, making for some clean, powerful lines. The combined swell energy is strong (1090), so there’s plenty of grunt in the water. This will be a day for experienced surfers only, as that size gets a bit much for the average punter. The offshore wind direction matches the optimum, so the point should be firing.
Thursday the 9th sees a shift as a big southerly swell pushes in with a strong 28 mph cross-offshore wind on Friday the 10th. The swell balloons to a massive 15ft (combined energy of 4228 to 4830), but the southerly direction is not optimum for this NE-facing break, and it’s simply too big for anyone but the most expert charger. The wind will keep it clean, but it's a beast.
The surf settles down a bit over the weekend and into the following week. Monday the 13th looks like another good opportunity with offshore winds and a 7ft southerly swell (combined energy of 1518). That’s excellent for experienced surfers, offering clean, powerful waves. After that, the swell drops off and conditions get a bit more average, with onshore winds making things choppy towards the end of the week of the 14th.
We hit another dry spell from around Wednesday the 15th, with the swell dropping small and the wind turning ugly. It stays poor right through until the end of the forecast period, with just small, messy waves.
The best bet, no question, is Wednesday the 8th of July. Get on it early.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 35mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Wed night, strong winds from the SSW by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sun 12 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 9 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 288 | 443 | 547 | 540 | 422 | 522 | 792 | 988 | 740 | 557 | 865 | 1583 | 3412 | 3998 | 4640 | 4075 | 3046 | 2339 | 1822 | 1367 | 1391 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | on | cross | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:44PM1.57m | 10:05AM1.50m | 10:30PM1.58m | 10:48AM1.53m | 11:16PM1.60m | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | 1:22PM1.70m | 1:49AM1.70m | 2:19PM1.77m | 2:46AM1.73m | 3:16PM1.84m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:02AM0.31m | 4:14PM0.35m | 4:46AM0.31m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:32AM0.31m | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | 7:39PM0.34m | 8:00AM0.29m | 8:39PM0.30m | 8:58AM0.26m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | |  |  |  | | |  | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — |
 | — | — | 4:58 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:01 |
mm | — | — | 10 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 3 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 11 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSW 21 | E 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 |
| kJ | 288 | 290 | 547 | 540 | 422 | 522 | 792 | 988 | 740 | 557 | 379 | 1583 | 377 | 230 | 190 | 231 | 44 | 31 | 1822 | 1367 | 1149 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 14 | S 20 | S 18 | SSW 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 13 | NNE 9 | E 10 | SSW 20 | — | — | — | SSW 21 | — | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 |
| kJ | 5 | 4 | 32 | 105 | 37 | 51 | 47 | 38 | 47 | 50 | 30 | 379 | 75 | — | — | — | 45 | — | 101 | 185 | 157 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 9 | S 22 | S 13 | SSW 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 | NNE 9 | SSW 17 | NE 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — |
| kJ | 13 | 9 | 3 | 131 | 92 | 80 | 75 | 64 | 88 | 68 | 55 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 108 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 7 | ENE 8 | — | NE 8 | — | — | — | — | SW 3 | S 8 | S 9 | — | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 14 | — | SE 10 |
| kJ | 85 | 443 | — | 367 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 378 | 865 | — | 3412 | 3998 | 4640 | 4075 | 3046 | 2339 | 36 | — | 1391 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 88 | 149 | 149 | 317 | 102 | 102 | 153 | 90 | 88 | 100 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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