Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down. It’s Friday afternoon, July 24th, and there’s not much doing at Last Chance right now. We’ve got a weak 1.6 ft east swell with a short 8-second period and only 64 combined energy units – that’s barely a bump. Water temp is sitting at 54.5°, which feels a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want a hood if you’re paddling out. Wind is cross-offshore from the NNW at 12 mph so it’s clean, but there’s just no power in the water. Poor surf.

We start seeing some life on Saturday morning, July 25th. Swell bumps to 3 ft from the ENE, period stretches to 11 seconds, and combined energy jumps to 265 – moderate energy now. Wind drops right off to 3 mph, still cross-off. That’s a decent little window for a point break, clean and rideable for a seasoned surfer. The afternoon goes downhill fast with 16 mph WSW winds and “poor surf conditions” flagged, so get your session in early.

Sunday July 26th brings a building swell: 3.6 ft to 3.9 ft from the ESE, period 14 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. Combined energy hits 833 in the morning, then 1080 in the afternoon – moderate to strong. Problem is, wind is cross-off but strong: 16 to 19 mph from the SSW. It’s clean but gusty, and the long period means this point break will have long, drawn-out lines with plenty of wait between sets. Marginal conditions; better for experienced paddlers who can handle the swing.

Monday July 27th sees a shift: 7.9 ft to 8.2 ft, S to SSE swell, but period drops to 8 seconds in the morning – short period, jumbled. Combined energy rockets to 1408 then 3037 by afternoon – strong to very strong energy. Wind is still cross-off but fresh at 19-22 mph. This is big for the spot, and with the short period it’ll be a bit of a bumpy wall. For experts only at this size, especially with the heavy wind. Margins are tight.

Tuesday July 28th: 7.2 ft to 7.5 ft from the ESE, 13-second period. Swell energy still strong at 1724–1821. Wind is moderate cross-off from the SSW. Still big, still clean, but only for advanced surfers. It remains marginal – big swell, long period, but you need to know what you’re doing.

By Wednesday July 29th we drop a little: 5.6 ft then 5.2 ft, period 12–13 seconds, energy 779–1001. The morning is clean with a light N wind, cross-shore, but the afternoon turns to a light cross-onshore from the NE, a bit choppy. Not great.

The standout window arrives Thursday July 30th. Swell settles to 4.3 ft from the ESE, 12-second period, 521 combined energy (moderate). Wind is light from the NNW at 6 mph, cross-off – clean waves. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s your best bet for the first week. By morning, it’s clean, manageable, and the point will hold nicely. Paddling out is easy with that period.

Friday July 31st is smaller: 3 ft, period 11 seconds, energy around 267–316. Morning is cross-shore with a slight chop, afternoon picks up heavy rain and 16 mph SW wind. Not worth it.

Then a little gem on Saturday August 1st. Morning: 3 ft from the ESE, 13-second period, 677 combined energy, light cross-off wind. Afternoon: swell bumps to 4.6 ft from the SSE, 12-second period, 848 energy, and the wind goes dead calm – glassy. That’s beautiful. Clean, glassy, long period lines on a point. This is the other standout. Get out there.

Sunday August 2

Read more