Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 30 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, S swell with 3,394 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 13s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.4m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 13s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 8ft (2.4m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Mate, let me break this down for you in feet and miles per hour.
We got a slow start, but some real magic coming up mid-week. Not much happening in the first couple days, so just sit tight.
Sunday 30th August arvo is a total dud – 2ft of weak ENE windswell, energy a pathetic 79, and a cross-off breeze making everything messy.
Now Monday 31st August morning at Last Chance (Last-Chance) – that’s your first real nod. Clean 3ft south swell, but the period is a fat 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. Energy is strong at 513. Offshore WNW wind at 12 mph is keeping it clean. Water temp is 54°F – a bit colder than usual by about 3°F, so grab a thick suit. This point break will love that long period.
Monday afternoon swell jumps to 6ft from the south, still with 14 seconds, and offshore WNW wind at 15 mph. Energy rockets to 1505 – getting serious. Bigger and more powerful, but tide might play games.
Tuesday 1st September morning is huge – 10ft of south swell, 12-second period, cross-off SW wind at 19 mph. Energy is very strong at 2435. Experts only. Tuesday arvo: 8ft south swell, 12 seconds, light 6 mph cross-off breeze. Energy still very strong at 2051. Excellent for the experienced.
Wednesday 2nd September is the pick of the lot. Morning: 7ft south swell, 13 seconds, light 6 mph cross-off NW breeze, energy at 2311 (very strong). But Wednesday afternoon – glassy! NNE wind at just 3 mph, 8ft south swell with a mammoth 17-second period. Energy hits 3159 – very strong. Glassy conditions on a point break with that long period is a dream. Crowds are possible, so be early.
Thursday 3rd September drops – 5ft morning, 4ft arvo, cross-off NW breezes. Clean but nothing special, energy down to 682 then 412.
From Friday 4th through Sunday 6th September – flat and messy. Swell sizes from 2ft to 4ft, poor energy, crappy winds. A real gap.
Monday 7th September – huge again. 13ft south swell in the morning, 10-second period, fresh cross-off WNW wind at 19 mph. Energy massive at 2836. That’s enormous. Arvo also solid at 10ft.
Tuesday 8th September – nice drop. 5ft SSE swell morning, glassy by arvo with 4ft SSE swell and 11 seconds, ENE breeze at 3 mph. Clean and fun, energy moderate (332 and 304).
After that, from Wednesday 9th to Saturday 12th – mostly small and poor, energy below 200, messy. Sunday 13th September morning has a sneaky glassy session with 4ft south swell, glassy conditions, and energy at 291 – worth a look if you’re keen.
The standout: No question – Wednesday 2nd September afternoon at Last Chance. Glassy, 8ft south swell with a 17-second period, and energy at 3159. That’s the one. Also don’t forget Monday 31st morning for a smaller but still tasty session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 17°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Mon night, calm by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | S 13 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 13 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 11 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 33 | 84 | 358 | 1472 | 1650 | 2402 | 2032 | 2764 | 1760 | 3125 | 1686 | 673 | 402 | 174 | 86 | 77 | 30 | 73 | 162 | 350 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  |  | | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | NE 8 | S 8 | S 14 | S 13 | NE 10 | S 12 | S 13 | S 13 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | SSW 6 | S 9 | S 9 | S 11 |
| kJ | 33 | 74 | 103 | 1472 | 1650 | 26 | 2032 | 2764 | 1760 | 3125 | 1686 | 673 | 402 | 174 | 86 | 77 | 47 | 73 | 162 | 350 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | S 13 | S 17 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | SE 13 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | SSE 18 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | NE 5 | S 10 | S 15 | ENE 10 | NE 3 |
| kJ | 33 | 84 | 358 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 19 | 9 | 522 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 9 | SW 4 | ENE 9 | SE 11 | NE 11 | — | — | — | ENE 9 | — | SE 12 | — | — | SE 12 | — | ENE 10 | NE 5 | ENE 10 | S 15 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 13 | 5 | 52 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | 8 | — | 5 | — | — | 5 | — | 11 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 4 | — | NW 2 | NW 3 | SSW 13 | S 12 | — | — | NE 9 | NNE 9 | W 3 | NW 3 | WNW 3 | NNW 3 | N 3 | NW 3 | — | NW 3 | — | NE 4 |
| kJ | 3 | — | 2 | 1 | 2817 | 2402 | — | — | 21 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | — | 2 | — | 6 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 78 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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