Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SE swell with 2,891 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 10s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 02) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's on the table for the next stretch. We've got a bit of a slow start, so be patient.
First thing to know, the water at Last Chance is sitting at 54.1°F, which is a solid 3.1°F colder than you'd expect for late July. That's a bit nippy, so a good quality 4/3 is the call.
We've got a bit of a lull to kick things off. The first couple of days are pretty ordinary, with some cross-off breezes keeping things from being totally horrible, but the swell is small and the energy is weak. The real action starts looking promising mid-week.
Wednesday the 29th of July morning is the first flicker of hope. The wind swings to a light northerly, going cross at just 3 mph. That's going to put a nice, clean, glassy-ish surface on the 5.9ft of groundswell. The energy is moderate (1071) and that long 13 second period from the ESE will wrap in nicely. It's an advanced spot and only breaks 'fairly consistently', so don't expect perfection, but for a Wednesday morning session, this is the best on offer in the near-term.
For a true standout, you've got to look to the following week and keep your fingers crossed. Tuesday, the 4th of August, see a solid pulse of S swell, 11.5ft, with the energy kicking up to a strong 2535. That is proper size and only for the experienced crew. The wind is a strong 25 mph cross-off from the SSW. It's going to be raw and powerful, but for those who can handle it, the potential is there.
We then see things settle back down heading into the second weekend, with cleaner but smaller conditions on offer. The whole period is marked by that "fairly consistent" nature of the break, so nothing is guaranteed to be pumping, but the long-range window has that one serious, powerful window.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 6°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Mon morning, light winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SSE 9 | SE 13 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | SE 14 | SE 15 | S 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 529 | 547 | 515 | 669 | 892 | 2326 | 2075 | 1915 | 1342 | 1052 | 985 | 743 | 462 | 363 | 238 | 213 | 151 | 88 | 103 | 116 | 1398 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:22PM1.58m | 3:37AM1.48m | 4:08PM1.56m | 4:23AM1.45m | 4:53PM1.55m | 5:09AM1.43m | 5:37PM1.55m | 5:56AM1.42m | 6:22PM1.55m | 6:43AM1.44m | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | 9:53AM0.48m | 10:23PM0.49m | 10:40AM0.45m | 11:08PM0.46m | 11:24AM0.41m | 11:53PM0.41m | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  |  |  | | |  | |  | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 |
Temp °C | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | NE 6 | E 10 | E 10 | S 12 |
| kJ | 529 | 547 | 515 | 669 | 799 | 2326 | 2075 | 1915 | 1342 | 1052 | 985 | 743 | 462 | 363 | 238 | 213 | 151 | 33 | 54 | 54 | 1398 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 15 | S 17 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | NE 8 | E 11 | SE 14 | SE 15 | SE 14 |
| kJ | 20 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 68 | 34 | 26 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 38 | 135 | 113 | 65 | 32 | 70 | 88 | 103 | 116 | 99 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | E 13 | — | S 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 17 | SSW 10 | NE 12 | NE 12 | SE 17 | ESE 16 | SE 15 | SE 14 | NE 6 | NE 17 | E 10 |
| kJ | 25 | 55 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 57 | 49 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 8 | SSE 8 | S 8 | SSE 9 | S 9 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | NE 3 | N 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | NE 7 | NNW 4 | NW 3 | SSW 6 | SSW 10 |
| kJ | 478 | 476 | 373 | 466 | 892 | 798 | 99 | — | — | — | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 69 | 85 | 8 | 3 | 176 | 1594 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 199 | 9 | 31 | 103 | 86 | 88 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest