Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Last Chance, the only break in the mix for this outlook. The next sixteen days start with a big pulse of swell, but it’s a tricky one to get right.

The first real action is on Wednesday morning, August 19th. A big 15 ft swell from the SSE is heading in, with a period of 11 seconds, delivering a huge combined energy of 4777. The water’s sitting at 54°, which is about 3° colder than usual for this time of year – noticeably cooler. The wind is a strong 25 mph cross-off from the south, which keeps the surf clean, but that swell is just too big for this break. It’s a standout for size, but only for the most experienced crew. By the afternoon, the swell drops to 12 ft, still with a 22 mph cross-off, but the score’s low – it’s marginal.

Thursday the 20th sees the swell backing off to 7 ft in the morning, with a short 8-second period from the south, and a moderate 16 mph cross-off. The combined energy drops to 1198 – still moderate, but the quality’s just not there. Afternoon drops to 6 ft, same short period, and a lighter 9 mph cross-off. Not shaping up well.

Friday morning, August 21st, is where it gets interesting. The swell is down to 5 ft from the south, but the period jumps to 13 seconds – proper groundswell. The energy is 982, moderate. Here’s the kicker: the wind is a whisper-light 3 mph from the NNW, cross-off, with clear skies. The conditions are clean. This is a genuine standout morning. The long period means the waves will have shape and power, and with hardly any wind, it’ll be glassy. Crowds are sometimes around here, so you might have some company. That 5 ft might sound small, but with that period and clean conditions, it’ll be a lot of fun. This is the best on offer in the first week. Friday afternoon gets a cross-on wind from the NE, 9 mph, and a 5 ft swell with a very long 16-second period, but the wind messes it up.

Saturday the 22nd stays small – 3 ft in the morning from the south, 12-second period, 324 energy, with a light 9 mph cross-off from the NW. Clean, but tiny. Saturday afternoon gets a 3 ft SSE swell, 11 seconds, with a light 6 mph offshore from the west. It’s clean, but you’re really stretching for a wave.

Sunday the 23rd onward into the week is a flat spell. The swell drops to 2 ft, then 1.0 ft, and the combined energy falls into double digits (120, 67). The wind is light, but there’s virtually no surf. Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th have glassy conditions with 2 ft to 3 ft swells, periods between 9 and 16 seconds, but the energy is low – 96 to 422. The longest period stuff on Tuesday afternoon (16 seconds) will be clean, but it’s barely breaking. This gap of poor-to-no surf runs from Sunday the 23rd right through to the end of the month.

Then, on Thursday morning, September 3rd, the forecast throws a real curveball. A 5 ft swell from the south, with a very long 15-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 1220. The wind is completely calm – glassy. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a late standout. The swell direction is from the south, and the optimum for Last Chance is from the NE, so it’s not a perfect match, but with that period and glassy conditions, the point should handle it well. The water is still cool from the anomaly earlier. Afternoon on the 3rd sees a 5 ft swell, same long period, but the wind turns onshore from the east at 9 mph, making it marginal.

Overall, the best windows are Friday morning, August 21st, and the Thursday morning, September 3rd. The first is more reliable given the timeframe, the second is a promising long-range call. If you’re a seasoned surfer, the big swell on the 19th is a spectacle, but it’s too much for a good time.

Rusty.

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