
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, SSE swell with 5,109 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 10s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple weeks.
We’ve got a 16-day window, but it’s not all good news straight away. Things look pretty average early on, with a solid kick of energy showing up later for the experienced crew.
The first few days are more about watching and waiting. Wednesday and Thursday mornings are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a 7ft ESE swell on Wednesday morning, but a strong cross-offshore wind has it all messed up. The energy is moderate, about 831. The water is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good suit. On Thursday, it really goes off the rails. That swell jumps to 10ft from the S, then 13ft SE, with strong cross winds and rain. The wave energy is massive (1685 on Thursday morning, 3673 Thursday arvo), but the quality is absolutely shocking. That setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Friday is another write-off with heavy rain and strong winds, despite a 13ft SE swell (3924 energy). It just won’t be any fun. Saturday and Sunday finally start to settle. Saturday morning has a cleaner 7ft ESE swell with lighter cross-off winds, energy dropping to 1089. It’s still just marginal, though. Sunday morning is the first real glimmer of hope – a clean 5ft ESE swell with glassy 5 km/h winds from the WSW. That’s the best it gets for a while, but the energy is still low at 762. It won’t be pumping, just rideable.
Then we hit a big quiet patch. From Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 15th, the swell just fades away. It drops to 4ft and lower, with very weak energy (as low as 117). The waves are tiny and ordinary. There’s not much to get excited about.
The real standout comes next. Mark your calendars for Thursday the 16th of July. This is the one. Last Chance is going to fire for the big-wave hunters. We’re looking at a solid 7ft ESE groundswell with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper energy – 2072 – and it’s going to have serious punch. The wind is glassy, and conditions look excellent for experienced surfers. Because it’s such a long period, this deep-water point will handle it beautifully. It’s an advanced wave and fairly consistent, but there might be crowds here for this one. Light winds from the east on the arvo will keep it a touch onshore, so get it in the morning.
Another one to watch: Friday the 17th of July. We’ve got a 6ft ESE groundswell with a 13-second period, and the wind is offshore – a clean 5 km/h from the WSW. Energy is 1134. This will be a cleaner, slightly smaller version of the day before. The period is still long, so it will be well-shaped and powerful. The morning session is your window before a light cross-onshore breeze kicks in later.
After that, the weekend of the 19th and 20th gets messy again with strong onshore winds and big, lumpy 10ft+ swell. Those days are best left for the hardcore crew or a kite.
So to sum it up: if you’re a beginner, the whole 16 days is a write-off. For everyone else, the window is short and sharp. The standout is the morning of Thursday the 16th of July – that’s your best shot. Followed closely by Friday the 17th morning.
Stay safe out there.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 46mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Wed night, near gales from the S by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | S 9 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
742 | 667 | 575 | 1228 | 3233 | 4138 | 3924 | 1478 | 924 | 850 | 1034 | 599 | 490 | 394 | 266 | 180 | 96 | 54 | 98 | 74 | 104 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | 1:22PM1.70m | 1:49AM1.70m | 2:19PM1.77m | 2:46AM1.73m | 3:16PM1.84m | 3:46AM1.75m | 4:14PM1.90m | 4:46AM1.78m | 5:14PM1.94m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | 7:39PM0.34m | 8:00AM0.29m | 8:39PM0.30m | 8:58AM0.26m | 9:39PM0.25m | 10:00AM0.22m | 10:38PM0.19m | 11:01AM0.15m | 11:37PM0.13m | ||||||||
7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | |
— | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSW 20 | SSW 18 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 |
742 | 667 | 575 | 434 | 440 | 38 | 109 | 1478 | 924 | 850 | 932 | 599 | 490 | 394 | 266 | 180 | 96 | 54 | 98 | 74 | 104 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | S 13 | S 12 | NNE 8 | SSW 17 | — | — | E 10 | S 16 | S 11 | S 19 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | ENE 5 |
25 | 88 | 49 | 23 | 59 | — | — | 71 | 75 | 39 | 179 | 343 | 272 | 188 | 157 | 89 | 54 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 18 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 8 | SSW 12 | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | SSW 12 | S 15 | S 11 | S 10 | — | S 7 | NE 12 | — | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 9 | E 14 | S 9 |
64 | 21 | 89 | 56 | — | — | — | — | 123 | 42 | 35 | 17 | — | 23 | 6 | — | 37 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 9 | SW 4 | S 8 | S 9 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 11 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | N 2 | NE 3 | NE 5 | NE 5 | NE 5 | — |
115 | 12 | 93 | 1228 | 3233 | 4138 | 3924 | 692 | 355 | 158 | 1034 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 14 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 78 | 149 | 153 | 267 | 153 | 90 | 9 | 88 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










