Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 12 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, SSE swell with 4,294 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 8s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Tue 7th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, grab ya coffee, let's have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks. It's not an immediate slam dunk, but there's some real potential brewing if you’re patient.
The first few days are building up to something. Monday the 6th is a write-off with light rain and a messy cross-on wind, so don't even bother paddling out. Tuesday the 7th is where it starts to get interesting. We've got a clean, glassy morning with a 5ft swell from the east, period around 9 seconds, and the water's sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than we'd normally expect for this time of year. That easterly groundswell hangs around through Wednesday with offshore winds, making for some really clean, lined-up waves. Honestly, the standout window is Thursday the 9th morning. The swell drops a touch to 5ft, but the wind is light and cross-offshore from the southwest, and the combined swell energy is a solid 1171, which tells you there's plenty of push behind it. That's your pick of the fortnight for experienced surfers – the conditions are gonna be excellent.
Now, hold onto your board. Friday the 10th gets nasty. We're looking at a 15ft swell from the southeast, but with a screaming 28 mph cross-shore wind, it's going to be a complete mess. That’s a kite-surfing special, not a paddle session. That big, raw energy keeps pumping through the weekend, but the wind stays cross or cross-off, so it’ll be lumpy and hard to manage for anyone but the experts willing to wrestle it. Things clean up again by Sunday the 12th with a cleaner 6ft swell and gentle cross-off breezes.
After that, the second week gets smaller and a bit ordinary until Thursday the 17th, where it pretty much flatlines for a few days with tiny leftovers and messy winds. Then, on Sunday the 19th, we see a spike of energy with a 8ft swell from the northeast, but the wind is cross-shore, so it's going to be a bit of a battle for the take-off spot. That one’s a week and a half out, so a bit less certain, but worth keeping an eye on.
For the daily surfer, stick to Tuesday the 7th through Thursday morning the 9th for the cleanest, most user-friendly waves. The true standout, the one you’d rearrange your schedule for, is Thursday morning the 9th at Last Chance.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon night, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 27mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu night, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Fri morning, light winds from the S by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Mon 13 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 542 | 417 | 501 | 682 | 640 | 610 | 575 | 434 | 458 | 1981 | 3822 | 2683 | 1220 | 2495 | 1477 | 947 | 710 | 565 | 370 | 280 | 222 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:30PM1.58m | 10:48AM1.53m | 11:16PM1.60m | 11:34AM1.57m | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | 1:22PM1.70m | 1:49AM1.70m | 2:19PM1.77m | 2:46AM1.73m | 3:16PM1.84m | 3:46AM1.75m | 4:14PM1.90m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:46AM0.31m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:32AM0.31m | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | 7:39PM0.34m | 8:00AM0.29m | 8:39PM0.30m | 8:58AM0.26m | 9:39PM0.25m | 10:00AM0.22m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | |
 | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — |
 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 |
mm | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | ESE 10 | S 21 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 |
| kJ | 542 | 417 | 501 | 682 | 640 | 610 | 575 | 434 | 458 | 586 | 347 | 397 | 1220 | 35 | 1477 | 947 | 710 | 565 | 370 | 280 | 222 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | SSW 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 13 | S 12 | S 8 | S 16 | SSW 15 | — | — | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | S 19 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 14 | S 12 | S 11 |
| kJ | 105 | 37 | 50 | 47 | 37 | 88 | 248 | 157 | 80 | 86 | — | — | 135 | 125 | 118 | 258 | 216 | 146 | 129 | 105 | 79 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 8 | NNE 9 | S 10 | NNE 8 | NE 8 | — | — | — | SSW 21 | S 15 | S 10 | — | — | N 12 | SSW 14 | — |
| kJ | 131 | 92 | 80 | 75 | 64 | 21 | 54 | 104 | 45 | 21 | — | — | — | 44 | 38 | 2 | — | — | 3 | 63 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 8 | — | — | — | SW 3 | SW 4 | — | S 8 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | SE 10 | SSW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 448 | — | — | — | 5 | 12 | — | 142 | 441 | 1981 | 3822 | 2683 | 1007 | 2495 | 273 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 149 | 149 | 153 | 101 | 102 | 153 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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