Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna lie—this 16-day window for Last Chance starts off pretty flat. We’ve got a couple of tiny, ordinary waves on Wednesday, but nothing worth paddling out for. The real action doesn’t kick in until the middle of the week, and there’s a big gap of nothingness after that.

Wednesday morning, July 15, is small and clean with a 2ft east swell, but it’s barely got any push (combined energy of all swells directed here is only 70). The water’s sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Thursday, July 16, picks up a fair bit—morning shows a 2ft easterly swell with a 15-second period, and the energy jumps to 239 (moderate). By Thursday afternoon, the swell shifts to 2ft from the ESE, and the period pushes to 17 seconds, giving it a nice groundswell feel with energy up to 403. The wind is offshore, so it’s clean.

Now, Friday morning, July 17—this is the standout. Glassy conditions, 6ft swell from the ESE, and a 16-second period. The energy is cranked right up to 1510 (strong). That’s proper groundswell, and Last Chance is a point break, so it’ll handle that long period beautifully. This is excellent stuff for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit cross-on, so get out early.

Saturday morning, July 18, is another glassy gem with 5ft from the ESE and a 14-second period, energy at 1224 (strong). Again, point break perfection. The afternoon turns cross-on and drops a bit.

Sunday, July 19, sees a new swell from the south at 6ft, period 19 seconds (very long period), and energy is a massive 2443. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the south direction might not be ideal for the break’s optimum. Still, for experienced surfers, it’s got punch. Monday, July 20, is similar—7ft to 7ft south swell, 15-second period, energy over 2000, and clean cross-off wind. The 7ft Monday afternoon is rated excellent for experienced surfers, but it’s big.

Tuesday, July 21, is a glassy morning with 5ft south swell, 13-second period, and energy at 1028—still strong. After that, the size drops off quick. By Wednesday, July 22, we’re down to 3ft, and then it’s a slow fade into small, weak waves. From Friday, July 24, right through to the end of the month, there’s a solid gap of days with no real recommendations—just tiny, poor surf or nothing worth mentioning. The energy dips below 100 at times. The water temp stays around that colder-than-normal mark throughout.

So, the call: Friday morning, July 17, and Saturday morning, July 18, are your best bets. Glassy, solid groundswell, and a point break that’ll handle the long period. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds are possible—it’s exposed, and there’s good reason to be out there. After that, the swell fades, and you’ve got a long stretch of small stuff. For the second week, it’s mostly small and inconsistent, with a few 2ft to 3ft waves that might be okay if you’re desperate.

Rusty.

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