Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 1 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 12s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 12s period, S swell with 4,827 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 27) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Tue 25th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Tue 1st Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Tue 1st Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, looking over Last Chance for the next couple weeks. It’s a point break, exposed, and the water’s running about 12°, which is a bit colder than normal for late summer. You’ll feel it.
The first few days are a bust. Monday the 24th is just poor—0.9ft south swell with a crummy cross-onshore wind. Energy is weak at 447. Not worth the drive.
Tuesday morning the 25th changes the mood. Glassy wind from the NNW, a 1ft south swell with a 12-second period, and moderate energy at 404. It’s clean and small but fun for a morning paddle.
Wednesday morning the 26th is a real standout. Glassy again, with a 1.0ft south groundswell and a very long 17-second period. That long period will really draw the shape out at this point. Energy is 631. This is the session to aim for.
Thursday morning the 27th is the pick of the whole run. We’ve got 2ft of south swell, still a very long 17-second period, and a clean cross-off wind from the SW. The combined energy is strong at 1354. Perfect for experienced surfers—powerful but not insane. Glassy conditions.
Thursday afternoon gets choppy, and then things fade through the weekend. A few clean mornings but with tiny surf, like Sunday the 30th with only 0.7ft.
Now, Monday the 31st afternoon brings a 3ft south swell at a short 7-second period. That’s a messy wind swell. The energy is 762, but nothing special in terms of quality.
Tuesday the 1st of September gets huge—4ft south groundswell with 14 seconds and a massive 5146 energy. But the cross-shore wind from the north at 12 mph will chop it up. This is for experts only. Beginners, stay on the beach.
Wednesday the 2nd cleans up with a 2ft SSE swell and nice cross-off winds, and Thursday the 3rd looks clean again with a 1.0ft south swell and 566 energy.
The big one is Saturday the 5th of September. A huge 6ft south groundswell and glassy conditions. The energy is 9516. That’s just too much for this break—it’ll be out of control. Only for the absolute best.
The best two windows are Thursday morning the 27th and Wednesday morning the 26th. Thursday has the size and power; Wednesday has the glassy perfection. Don’t sleep on them.
Rusty, out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | S 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | S 10 | S 10 | ENE 8 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 347 | 813 | 368 | 290 | 434 | 594 | 520 | 260 | 1342 | 1925 | 1520 | 880 | 476 | 313 | 193 | 143 | 121 | 100 | 70 | 45 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | off | cross-off | on | off |
High Tide | 2:58AM1.40m | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:57PM0.47m | 9:11AM0.44m | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | |||||||
 |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |  |  | |  | | |
 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 15 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | S 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | S 10 | S 10 | ENE 8 |
| kJ | 347 | 813 | 368 | 290 | 434 | 594 | 520 | 260 | 1342 | 1925 | 1520 | 880 | 476 | 313 | 193 | 143 | 121 | 100 | 70 | 45 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | NNE 4 | ESE 13 | S 18 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | E 15 | ENE 5 | E 6 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 6 | NE 6 | ENE 6 | S 9 |
| kJ | 65 | 7 | 33 | 55 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 28 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 33 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 40 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 4 | ESE 13 | NNE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | S 18 | — | — | E 16 | SE 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | SSW 12 | E 6 | SE 12 | NE 9 | S 4 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 35 | 35 | 3 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | — | — | 5 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 1 | 35 | 19 | 3 | 14 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNE 4 | W 3 | ENE 4 | — | — | — | N 3 | — | — | ENE 4 | ENE 5 | NNE 4 | NNE 6 | NE 4 | NE 7 | — | SSW 4 | — | — |
| kJ | — | 19 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 19 | 26 | 8 | 25 | 16 | 36 | — | 2 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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