Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Issued: 5 am 05 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.1° C

1.4°C colder than average for this time of year

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, E swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 10s period, SE swell with 3,109 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 10s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 17s. Another secondary swell of 1.7m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 10s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Sun 5th Jul)5ft (1.5m) 10s
Best Surf 9PM (Tue 7th Jul)7ft (2.2m) 10s
Most Powerful 6PM (Fri 10th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, let’s get down to it. This next run is a bit of a slow burner. You’re looking at a gap right off the bat – Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are poor, with messy wind and weak surf. Don’t bother paddling out. You need to wait until Tuesday the 7th for the first decent chance.

Tuesday morning is where it turns. Dead calm wind out of the west – glassy as it gets. There’s about 1.7m of east swell rolling in with a 9-second period. The combined energy is 787 (moderate). It’s clean and rideable, not big, but you’ll get a wave. Tuesday afternoon looks even better, with the swell bumping up to 1.9m and a 10-second period, still glassy. This is your first good session.

But the real standout is Wednesday the 8th. Thursday morning we’ve got a clean 2.2m ESE swell, a 10-second period, and a light cross-offshore wind from the WSW. The energy jumps to 1093 (strong). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – that’s a solid size, too much for beginners. The afternoon stays clean but a touch smaller. That’s your pick of the first week.

Then it goes downhill. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th get messy with too much wind and building swell. Friday and Saturday we’re talking 3.0m to 4.0m with fresh breezes. That’s just a lot of water moving around in poor conditions. Not for the faint of heart. From Sunday the 12th through Friday the 17th, it’s a big gap of marginal and poor quality stuff. Not worth chasing much. Saturday the 18th gives you a small, clean option – 1.1m with offshore wind and a glassy feel – but the period is short at 7 seconds, so you’ll get some close-outs. Energy is weak at 339.

Now, the second week’s real highlight comes Sunday the 19th. We’ve got a 1.3m south swell with an incredibly long period of 16 seconds. Combined energy is 952 (strong). This is a proper groundswell. With a light offshore wind and excellent conditions forecast for experienced surfers, this will be the session of the run. On a point like Last Chance, that long period will wrap in beautifully – just keep in mind at a beach break it might break a bit straight. This is the one you wait for.

Water temperature is about 56°F, which is nearly 3°F cooler than average for this time of year. That’s a nippy anomaly – bring the thick rubber.

So, to sum it up: Wednesday the 8th for a solid clean session, and then Sunday the 19th for the real standout long-period groundswell. Everything else is mostly waiting.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Wed morning). Winds increasing (calm on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the SSW by Fri afternoon).

Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
1
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
ENE
10
1
E
10
1.4
ENE
8
1.9
ENE
9
1.9
ENE
9
1.7
E
9
1.7
E
9
1.9
E
10
2.2
E
10
2.2
ESE
10
2.1
ESE
10
1.7
E
10
1.6
E
10
1.8
S
10
2.5
SSE
9
3
SSE
9
3.5
SSE
10
3
ESE
10
2.5
SE
11
3.5
SSE
10
3.5
SSE
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
537
196
264
512
542
463
502
680
986
1007
833
563
530
600
1062
1407
2345
1905
1562
2651
2345
Wind (km/h)
25
NNE
20
NNE
10
N
15
NE
15
NE
5
SW
0
W
5
SE
10
WSW
15
WSW
10
SSW
10
SW
20
SSW
30
SSW
30
S
45
SSW
45
SSW
45
SSW
40
SSW
40
SSW
30
SSW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
9:24AM1.48m
9:44PM1.57m
10:05AM1.50m
10:30PM1.58m
10:48AM1.53m
11:16PM1.60m
11:34AM1.57m
00:04AM1.63m
12:26PM1.63m
00:54AM1.67m
1:22PM1.70m
1:49AM1.70m
2:19PM1.77m
2:46AM1.73m
Low Tide
3:27PM0.35m
4:02AM0.31m
4:14PM0.35m
4:46AM0.31m
5:01PM0.35m
5:32AM0.31m
5:49PM0.35m
6:18AM0.31m
6:42PM0.36m
7:07AM0.30m
7:39PM0.34m
8:00AM0.29m
8:39PM0.30m
part cloud
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
4:58
4:58
4:59
5:00
5:00
5:00
5:01
 mm
3
6
1
4
4
9
4
4
3
2
1
4
Temp °C
14
15
12
12
12
11
12
12
10
12
11
11
13
13
13
12
11
11
10
10
11
Feels °C
10
12
10
8
9
9
11
11
8
10
8
7
8
8
8
4
2
1
1
1
4
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
E
10
1
E
10
1.4
ENE
8
1.5
E
9
0.2
S
20
1.7
E
9
1.7
E
9
1.9
E
10
2.2
E
10
2.2
ESE
10
2.1
ESE
10
1.7
E
10
1.6
E
10
1.8
S
10
1.4
E
10
1.7
ESE
10
1.8
E
9
3
ESE
10
2.5
SE
11
0.3
SSW
20
0.5
SSW
18
Energy kJ
242
196
264
347
32
463
502
680
986
1007
833
563
530
600
377
551
565
1905
1562
82
178
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
S
12
0.1
S
17
0.1
S
16
0.1
S
14
0.1
S
13
0.4
S
18
0.4
S
17
0.5
S
10
0.5
S
10
0.4
S
8
0.4
S
13
0.8
S
7
0.6
S
10
1.6
E
10
0.2
S
19
0.4
NE
8
0.7
E
10
Energy kJ
3
5
5
4
3
106
92
49
46
22
56
69
65
500
30
24
96
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
S
16
0.1
S
10
0.1
S
15
0.1
S
22
0.1
SW
13
0.1
SW
7
0.4
S
10
0.4
S
16
0.4
S
16
0.4
S
14
0.6
SSW
8
0.4
S
12
0.3
S
17
0.3
S
16
0.3
SSW
19
Energy kJ
5
2
5
9
7
2
33
80
75
64
51
49
49
46
74
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
ENE
10
1.3
NE
7
1.2
NE
7
1.9
ENE
9
1.9
ENE
9
1.6
NE
8
0.8
SSW
7
1.1
S
7
2.5
SSE
9
3
SSE
9
3.5
SSE
10
2.5
S
9
2.5
S
9
3.5
SSE
10
3.5
SSE
10
Energy kJ
537
155
135
512
542
322
61
127
1062
1407
2345
1050
1033
2651
2345
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
2
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
Distance (km)
11
23
8
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
103
149
149
214
153
102
102
102
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand
Rating
(10 max)
2
4
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
9
7
5
5
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
6
6
5
5
4
6
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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