Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 02 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.0° C
0.9° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 6,736 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 3 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 11s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 13s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Mon 3rd Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 11s
Best Surf 6PM (Tue 4th Aug)15ft (4.5m) 11s
Most Powerful 3AM (Wed 5th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, grab your board. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch. We’ve got a solid run of swell on the way, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The wind is going to be the main character for a few days, so we need to pick the right windows.

The forecast starts with a quick, clean window on Monday morning, 3rd August. Last Chance is the only spot on the menu, and it’s firing right out of the gate. It’s a consistent point break, exposed to the swell, and it’s a bit of a sneaky spot for the advanced crew. Monday morning is looking choice: 5ft of SSE swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the wind is a light 3 mph from the WNW – that’s a slight offshore, practically glass. The water is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is moderate at 629, and it’ll be clean. This is a standout session for the start of the week. Just be aware that crowds are possible here.

The window tightens up Monday afternoon as the wind swings onshore and the swell drops. Tuesday, 4th August, is a raw day. The wind screams from the SSW at 22 mph, and the swell jumps to 10ft to 12ft. That’s too big for beginners, and the cross-off wind is howling. The energy is very strong (3680), but it’s a battle. Wednesday, 5th August, is the biggest of the run, with 15ft of S swell on the morning. That’s expert territory. The wind is still strong at 28 mph, and the energy is colossal (5723). The break is a point, so it can handle some size, but this is on the edge of what’s fun. It’s more of a spectacle than a session.

The swell eases a bit on Thursday, 6th August, but the wind remains a cross-off. The waves are still on the messy side. Friday morning, 7th August, is a real highlight. The wind drops to almost nothing from the NNW at 3 mph – glassy conditions. The swell is 6ft from the SSE, period 10 seconds, and the energy is moderate (1077). The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and I’d agree. The glassy water will make it a dream.

Saturday, 8th August, has nice clean conditions with light cross-off winds, but the swell is a bit smaller. Sunday morning, 9th August, is another standout. The wind is 3 mph from the NNW, glassy again, and the swell is 5ft but with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s pure groundswell energy (1260). It’s going to be clean and lined up, but that long period means it will be a bit more walled up on a point break. for the experienced surfer, this is a gem. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-shore breeze, but the morning is the pick.

Then we hit a flat patch. From Monday afternoon, 10th August, right through to Wednesday, 12th August, the wind is mostly onshore, the swell drops, and the energy is weak. The surf quality is poor. There’s a few days of nothing.

Things look up again on Thursday morning, 13th August. The wind is light from the NNW, and the swell is 8ft from the SSE, but the period is short at 8 seconds. The energy is moderate (846). It’s clean, but the short period means it’s a bit fat and sectiony. Friday morning, 14th August, is glassy with zero wind. The swell is 6ft, period 8 seconds, and energy is moderate (571). Clean but again, short period.

The final weekend, 15th-16th August, has small, clean waves with light winds, but nothing to write home about. The swell direction shifts to the SE, and the energy drops. The last real chance is Monday morning, 17th August, with a light offshore wind and 3ft of swell, but it’s small.

The Bottom Line: The best windows are Monday morning, 3rd August, and Friday morning, 7th August, and Sunday morning, 9th August. The 9th has the best quality with the long-period groundswell and glassy conditions. Get on it while it’s clean. The big days mid-week are for the experts only.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the SSW by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 5°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Wed night, calm by Fri morning).

Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Saturday
8
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
1
2
2
1
0
!
2
5
2
3
3
4
3
4
3
3
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
SSE
11
1.6
SSE
11
1.3
SSE
10
1.2
SSE
12
3
S
14
3.5
S
10
5
S
12
4.5
S
12
4
S
12
3.5
S
12
2.5
SSE
11
1.6
S
11
2
SSE
10
1.7
SSE
10
1.9
SSE
17
2.3
SSE
14
1.7
SSE
13
1.5
SSE
12
1.3
SSE
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
787
575
345
439
3659
2795
6315
5723
4146
3489
1400
599
810
527
1969
2228
938
644
401
Wind (km/h)
10
N
5
WNW
10
S
20
WSW
35
SSW
40
SW
45
SW
45
SSW
35
SSW
30
SW
25
WSW
20
SW
10
WNW
5
NNW
10
ENE
10
NW
10
NNW
10
WNW
15
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
off
cross
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
High Tide
8:57AM1.55m
9:19PM1.63m
9:39AM1.59m
10:04PM1.65m
10:22AM1.63m
10:51PM1.66m
11:10AM1.67m
11:41PM1.67m
12:04PM1.70m
00:33AM1.67m
1:01PM1.74m
1:29AM1.67m
Low Tide
2:50AM0.27m
3:02PM0.29m
3:34AM0.27m
3:49PM0.29m
4:19AM0.27m
4:38PM0.30m
5:05AM0.28m
5:29PM0.31m
5:54AM0.28m
6:23PM0.31m
6:46AM0.27m
7:22PM0.29m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
light rain
mod rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:09
7:07
7:07
7:05
7:05
7:03
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:20
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:23
 mm
5
4
10
3
2
3
Temp °C
9
13
14
12
7
6
7
9
9
9
9
9
7
9
10
10
13
14
12
Feels °C
5
11
11
9
-2
-4
-4
-1
1
1
2
3
3
6
7
7
10
12
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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