Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day look at Last Chance, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We need to be patient.

We’re starting off this outlook on Saturday the 4th of July with some clean surf in the morning. The swell is a modest 5ft from the east with a period of 12 seconds, which is a decent groundswell, and the water is sitting at 55°, which is about 3° cooler than usual for this time of year – so you’ll want the thick rubber. However, that nice morning window quickly gets blown out by the afternoon as the wind swings onshore. Sunday and Monday look pretty poor as well, with messy, choppy conditions and building but junky swell.

The first real standout arrives on Tuesday the 7th of July in the afternoon. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and the swell is a solid 6ft from the east with a 10 second period. The wave energy is strong (713), and the surface is going to be perfect. This is your best chance for smooth, clean waves all day.

Wednesday the 8th of July morning brings another winner. The wind swings offshore from the west-southwest, blowing gently at 9 mph. The swell holds at 6ft from the east (10 seconds), and the combined energy is pumping hard (893). The lineup will be clean and well-shaped thanks to that offshore breeze. This is a true standout window.

Thursday the 9th starts rough with rain and onshore wind, but the afternoon brings a major shift. A new swell fills in, pushing 7ft from the east-southeast (10 seconds), and the energy absolutely rockets to 1785. The wind cleans right up to a light cross-offshore. This is excellent, powerful surf, but at this size, it’s definitely for experienced surfers only. Friday and Saturday the 10th and 11th get wild but messy with strong winds and a big, unruly swell up to 13ft – a kite surfer's paradise more than a paddle session.

Looking into the second week, things settle down but stay good. Monday the 13th of July morning is a highlight with clean 8ft surf from the south (9 seconds) and light cross-offshore winds (1798 energy). Still a big, powerful wave for those who can handle it. By Tuesday the 14th the swell drops, and by Wednesday and Thursday we’re looking at smaller, long-period southerly groundswells (up to 15 seconds). These are better for the points and reefs to hold shape, as a long period swell at a beach break can be a bit straight. The winds are light but mostly cross or onshore. The final few days from Friday the 17th onwards fade right out with tiny surf and strong winds.

In short, lock in Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning of the first week. The long-range action around Monday the 13th is also promising, but keep an eye on the wind as it gets closer.

Stay safe,
Rusty

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