Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 29 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, S swell with 3,125 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 30 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 10s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 30) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 13s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Sun 30th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about Last Chance. This is a point break that fires best when the swell’s from the NE, and it’s a fairly consistent wave, but it’s for the advanced crew only. We’ve got a quiet start – Sunday the 30th of August is a no-go. Small, weak waves with a cross-off breeze. Nothing to write home about.
The window opens on Monday the 31st of August. The morning brings a clean 3ft groundswell from the south with a very long period of 17 seconds, and a light offshore wind from the WNW. The water temp is about normal for this time of year. The energy is moderate (488). It’s a good look. But the real standout is the afternoon. The swell jumps to 6ft from the south, period still a solid 14 seconds, and the wind is a moderate offshore from the WNW. The energy is strong (1212), and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the best of the whole forecast – clean, powerful, and long lines. You do not want to miss this.
Tuesday the 1st of September is a washout. The swell is 8ft to 10ft, but the wind is cross-off or cross-shore, and the conditions are marginal. The energy is very high (1655 to 2416), but without clean wind, it’s a mess. Stay on the beach.
Wednesday the 2nd of September is a solid backup. The swell holds at 8ft from the south with a 13-second period in the morning, clean. The energy is strong (1970). The afternoon gets glassy – no wind at all – with a 8ft south swell and a very long period of 17 seconds. The energy is very strong (3431). That’s a scary amount of power. Strictly for the experts, and the long period might make it a bit too straight for the point.
Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th of September drop off quickly. Swell falls to 5ft and then 4ft, winds are cross-off, and the energy drops to moderate (1013 to 460). Surfable, but nothing special.
The weekend of the 5th and 6th of September is small. Saturday the 5th is almost flat, and Sunday the 6th sees a 4ft south swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, but the wind is light cross-off. It’s clean, but the energy is moderate (595). A relaxed session for the experienced.
The second week is mostly small and messy. Monday the 7th of September has a fresh offshore wind but only 2ft of swell. Tuesday the 8th is a total loss with a tiny, short-period windswell from the NNE. The best of the later week is Thursday the 10th of September, with a 4ft, short-period (6 seconds) NE swell and a gentle offshore wind. The energy is weak (114). Small, but clean. Saturday the 13th of September is the last decent call, with a 3ft south swell, an 8-second period, and a gentle offshore wind. The energy is moderate (284). Clean, but small.
So, to sum it up: your one and only true standout is Monday the 31st of August afternoon. Paddle out. Everything else is either too big with bad wind, or just too small. The long-range stuff is a maybe, not a certainty.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (calm on Sun morning, fresh winds from the SW by Tue morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | ENE 7 | S 13 | S 17 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 17 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 90 | 33 | 84 | 358 | 1089 | 1370 | 1958 | 1764 | 2120 | 1834 | 3125 | 1959 | 812 | 483 | 224 | 223 | 125 | 61 | 56 | 47 | 47 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | |  |  | | | |  | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | ENE 7 | NE 8 | S 17 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 17 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 |
| kJ | 90 | 33 | 74 | 358 | 1089 | 1370 | 1958 | 1764 | 2120 | 1834 | 3125 | 1959 | 812 | 483 | 224 | 223 | 125 | 61 | 56 | 47 | 47 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | SSE 10 | S 13 | S 8 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | NE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | NNE 5 | ENE 10 | NE 5 | S 15 | ENE 10 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 |
| kJ | 23 | 33 | 84 | 80 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | NE 9 | SSW 5 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | SE 11 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | — | — | SE 12 | — | — | ENE 10 | SE 11 | ENE 10 | NE 5 | S 16 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 4 | 13 | 9 | 52 | 59 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 11 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 3 | — | NW 3 | W 3 | SSW 13 | — | — | — | — | NNE 9 | WNW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNE 3 | NW 3 | W 3 | — | — | NE 4 |
| kJ | — | 2 | — | 2 | 8 | 2490 | — | — | — | — | 30 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | — | — | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest