Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch. We’ve got a solid run of swell on the way, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The wind is going to be the main character for a few days, so we need to pick the right windows.

The forecast starts with a quick, clean window on Monday morning, 3rd August. Last Chance is the only spot on the menu, and it’s firing right out of the gate. It’s a consistent point break, exposed to the swell, and it’s a bit of a sneaky spot for the advanced crew. Monday morning is looking choice: 5ft of SSE swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the wind is a light 3 mph from the WNW – that’s a slight offshore, practically glass. The water is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is moderate at 629, and it’ll be clean. This is a standout session for the start of the week. Just be aware that crowds are possible here.

The window tightens up Monday afternoon as the wind swings onshore and the swell drops. Tuesday, 4th August, is a raw day. The wind screams from the SSW at 22 mph, and the swell jumps to 10ft to 12ft. That’s too big for beginners, and the cross-off wind is howling. The energy is very strong (3680), but it’s a battle. Wednesday, 5th August, is the biggest of the run, with 15ft of S swell on the morning. That’s expert territory. The wind is still strong at 28 mph, and the energy is colossal (5723). The break is a point, so it can handle some size, but this is on the edge of what’s fun. It’s more of a spectacle than a session.

The swell eases a bit on Thursday, 6th August, but the wind remains a cross-off. The waves are still on the messy side. Friday morning, 7th August, is a real highlight. The wind drops to almost nothing from the NNW at 3 mph – glassy conditions. The swell is 6ft from the SSE, period 10 seconds, and the energy is moderate (1077). The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and I’d agree. The glassy water will make it a dream.

Saturday, 8th August, has nice clean conditions with light cross-off winds, but the swell is a bit smaller. Sunday morning, 9th August, is another standout. The wind is 3 mph from the NNW, glassy again, and the swell is 5ft but with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s pure groundswell energy (1260). It’s going to be clean and lined up, but that long period means it will be a bit more walled up on a point break. for the experienced surfer, this is a gem. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-shore breeze, but the morning is the pick.

Then we hit a flat patch. From Monday afternoon, 10th August, right through to Wednesday, 12th August, the wind is mostly onshore, the swell drops, and the energy is weak. The surf quality is poor. There’s a few days of nothing.

Things look up again on Thursday morning, 13th August. The wind is light from the NNW, and the swell is 8ft from the SSE, but the period is short at 8 seconds. The energy is moderate (846). It’s clean, but the short period means it’s a bit fat and sectiony. Friday morning, 14th August, is glassy with zero wind. The swell is 6ft, period 8 seconds, and energy is moderate (571). Clean but again, short period.

The final weekend, 15th-16th August, has small, clean waves with light winds, but nothing to write home about. The swell direction shifts to the SE, and the energy drops. The last real chance is Monday morning, 17th August, with a light offshore wind and 3ft of swell, but it’s small.

The Bottom Line: The best windows are Monday morning, 3rd August, and Friday morning, 7th August, and Sunday morning, 9th August. The 9th has the best quality with the long-period groundswell and glassy conditions. Get on it while it’s clean. The big days mid-week are for the experts only.

Rusty.

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