Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 27 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.3°C
1.3° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 1 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, S swell with 4,132 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 29 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 1.2m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 13s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6PM (Sat 29th Aug)3ft (0.9m) 11s
Best Surf 9PM (Tue 1st Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s
Most Powerful12AM (Wed 2nd Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of days are lookin’ pretty flat and messy, so you might wanna get the fishing gear ready. But don’t you worry, there’s some serious swell on the horizon, and Last Chance is gonna fire. This might be the best window we’ve seen in a while. Let’s break it all down, day by day.

The next week starts off weak. Thursday the 27th has a bit of swell, but the tide is questionable, and the energy is all over the place. It’s not worth paddling out for. Friday and Saturday are pretty poor, with cross-onshore winds and chop ruining any chance of clean lines at Last Chance. By Sunday the 30th, the swell is tiny, just a sliver of energy. The morning is clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. It’s a real flat spell. The good news? It doesn’t last.

The first real highlight hits on Monday the 31st of August. We’ve got a solid 8ft of south swell flooding in, with a short, punchy 8-second period. It’s got plenty of power, pushing the combined energy to a strong 934. The wind swings offshore at 9 mph in the morning, grooming it into clean, hollow waves. This is the standout of the week. If you’re an advanced surfer, this is your window. It’s a bit big for the beginners, but the ocean is gonna be all-time.

Then things get even more interesting. Tuesday afternoon the 1st of September the swell settles to a still-solid 8ft, but the period stretches out to 14 seconds, making for some proper groundswell. The wind is light offshore, and the energy vaults to a very strong 1969. The waves are gonna have real shape and power. This is another one of those days where Last Chance is gonna be firing. The water’s been a bit colder than normal, so throw on the thicker suit, but that’s a small price to pay for those conditions. Wednesday morning follows it up with glassy conditions and a 7ft, 12-second swell. The energy is still strong at 1364, and with no wind, you’re gonna get those clean, down-the-line waves that make this spot so special. This is the best two-day stretch of the whole forecast.

After that, the swell starts to back off. The rest of the week and into the weekend has smaller surf, but still some clean conditions. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th of September have a bit of leftover energy with offshore winds, keeping things surfable, but it’s a big step down from the Tuesday and Wednesday peak. By the weekend of the 5th and 6th, it’s dropping fast, and the 6th is basically flat. The ocean takes a breather.

There’s a long flat spell from Sunday the 6th through Tuesday the 8th. If you were stoked on those early-week waves, this is a quiet period where you can rest up. But the horizon isn’t empty.

Mid-week, Wednesday the 9th of September, we get another push, with a 7ft swell showing up. But the period is only 10 seconds, and the winds are cross-offshore. The energy is moderate, so it might be a bit bumpy. Then Thursday the 10th is shot to hell by a massive 22 mph offshore wind, which will make it tough and blustery.

The best bet for the second week is actually Friday the 11th of September. It’s not huge, but a 5ft, 10-second south swell with light offshore winds in the afternoon should bring in some clean, fun waves at Last Chance. The energy is moderate at 444. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s got potential.

All in all, this is a tale of two weeks. The first half has a couple of absolute rippers, and the second half is quiet with a few smaller, cleaner days. Keep your focus on that Monday-to-Wednesday window – that’s the pay-off.

Alright, that’s it from me. Get out there when it’s good.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Mon night).

Thu
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
3
3
3
2
4
4
4
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
S
17
1.8
S
16
1.4
SSE
14
1.2
SSE
13
1.1
SSE
12
0.9
SSE
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
11
0.7
SSE
11
0.4
S
12
0.7
S
12
2.5
S
8
1.5
S
15
2.5
S
13
2
S
13
2.3
S
14
3.5
S
14
2.1
S
12
1.7
SSE
12
1.3
SSE
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1680
1589
733
499
333
193
176
140
101
47
151
804
1037
2258
1359
1894
4132
1356
833
470
Wind (km/h)
5
E
25
NNE
20
NNE
15
N
20
N
20
N
15
NE
10
N
5
SW
0
ENE
20
W
15
W
20
SW
35
WNW
25
SSW
15
WSW
10
N
0
WNW
10
NNE
10
WNW
Wind State
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-off
glassy
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
4:59PM1.50m
5:22AM1.41m
5:47PM1.53m
6:11AM1.46m
6:33PM1.57m
6:58AM1.52m
7:20PM1.62m
7:44AM1.59m
8:05PM1.66m
8:29AM1.65m
8:52PM1.69m
9:13AM1.70m
9:40PM1.69m
Low Tide
11:15PM0.34m
11:32AM0.32m
00:03AM0.30m
12:17PM0.28m
00:49AM0.26m
1:02PM0.25m
1:35AM0.24m
1:48PM0.24m
2:20AM0.23m
2:37PM0.24m
3:05AM0.23m
3:28PM0.25m
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:37
6:35
6:33
6:33
6:31
6:30
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:44
5:45
5:45
 mm
1
8
5
1
Temp °C
12
11
14
16
14
16
15
13
14
15
14
13
14
14
8
8
7
13
16
13
Feels °C
11
7
10
12
11
13
12
12
13
14
9
9
9
7
2
4
4
12
13
10
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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