
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with 5,898 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 5 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, cobber, this is Rusty. I’ve been staring at the charts for Last Chance, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag to be honest. We’ve got a proper few days of action coming up, but we’re also looking at a real dry spell after that.
The first call is Wednesday morning. It’s not a pretty one, though. We’ve got a solid 15ft of south swell rolling in, with a 12-second period. That’s a lot of juice, and the combined energy is reading a massive 5898, which is strong to very strong. But, the wind is a cross-off from the SSW at 25 mph, and honestly, the call is that it’s just too big for this point. It’s an advanced break, but even they’ll be scratching their heads. The water is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, sitting at 55°F, which is about a degree off the norm. It’s not a complete write-off, but I’d be watching from the cliff.
Thursday sees the swell drop a bit, but it’s still messy. Morning is 10ft from the south, and the afternoon drops to 6ft. The wind stays cross-off, but it’s not a standout day. The scores are low, and it’s just one of those days where you’re fighting the conditions.
Now, Friday morning is the first real gem. The swell drops to a clean 3ft from the SSE with a long, 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell. The wind is glassy, just a slight air from the NNW. This is where this point will shine. Long period swells like this are perfect for a point break, giving you those long, racy walls. The energy is still moderate at 1356, but the conditions are prime. This is for the experienced crew, but it’ll be worth it.
Saturday morning is also decent. Similar size, 6ft from the SSE, but the period has dropped to 12 seconds. Still glassy in the morning, which is great. It’s a touch more size on it, but the quality is still there. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-on breeze, so make the most of the morning.
Sunday is where it starts to fade. The swell drops to 4ft and the wind goes cross-shore, creating some chop. It’s not great, and the afternoon is a write-off. Monday and Tuesday are pretty flat and ordinary, with small waves and poor conditions. The energy is weak, and you’re just hoping for a bump.
From Wednesday the 13th through to the 15th, it’s a proper lull. We’re looking at tiny waves, under 3ft, with weak energy. There’s a bit of offshore wind on the 14th, but there’s just no swell to push it. This is the kind of stretch where you check the forecast and go back to bed.
Now, hold on. The 16th has a bit of a pulse. Sunday the 16th looks promising. The morning shows 3ft of south swell with a very long 19-second period. The wind is a gentle offshore from the west, and the energy is moderate at 691. The comment says "very good surf conditions." Then the afternoon keeps it around 3ft with a 16-second period and a light cross-off breeze. This is a promising window, but it's a week and a half out, so keep your expectations in check. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising, but not certain.
The 17th has some more size, up to 4ft, but the period drops. The morning is a bit poor, but the afternoon with a solid offshore wind from the west looks okay.
But then it gets sketchy again. The 18th and 19th see the swell jump up, but the period drops right off to 6 and 7 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. It’s got size, up to 8ft on the 19th, and it's clean, but with that short period, it's going to be a mess. It might be more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers. That short-period, big swell on a point is just going to be lumpy and hard to ride.
So, the standout here is Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th in the morning. Clean, glassy, with proper long-period swell. The Sunday the 16th is a long-range hope, but don’t book your flights yet. The rest is a waiting game.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Wed morning, min 5°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SE 12 | SSE 9 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
5898 | 4286 | 2798 | 2177 | 683 | 692 | 655 | 1178 | 1496 | 934 | 861 | 504 | 334 | 260 | 307 | 190 | 141 | 122 | 161 | 136 | 160 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | 2:59PM1.81m | 3:29AM1.69m | 3:57PM1.84m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | 8:41AM0.22m | 9:21PM0.19m | 9:43AM0.16m | 10:20PM0.15m | ||||||||
7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | |
— | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | |
mm | 1 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | -1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 11 | SE 16 | SSE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SE 12 | SSE 9 | SSE 10 |
— | 5 | 41 | 1628 | 611 | 692 | 537 | 1178 | 1496 | 934 | 861 | 504 | 334 | 260 | 307 | 190 | 141 | 122 | 161 | 136 | 160 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NE 18 | SE 15 | SE 14 | SE 13 | SSE 18 | SSE 10 | ESE 11 | SSE 16 | SE 11 | E 13 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | NE 6 | NE 5 | E 11 | NE 6 | S 9 | NE 6 | NE 6 |
— | — | 12 | 35 | 92 | 269 | 655 | 425 | 24 | 330 | 30 | 3 | 138 | 166 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 5 | 1 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | E 18 | NE 10 | S 21 | SE 13 | SE 12 | NE 14 | E 14 | NE 13 | E 14 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | S 16 | SE 12 | NE 6 | S 14 | E 11 |
— | — | — | 6 | 4 | 8 | 164 | 205 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 6 | — | NE 5 | — | — | — | NE 3 |
5898 | 4286 | 2798 | 2177 | 683 | 473 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 5 | 14 | 48 | — | 7 | — | — | — | 3 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 101 | 102 | 88 | 86 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











