Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, crew, Rusty here with a look at what’s on offer for our zone. The only real player in town is Last Chance. It’s a point break, advanced-level only, and we’ve got a big window of surf coming, but the start is a bit of a slow burn and the week ahead has some serious lumps in it.

First up, from Sunday the 26th, we have some small but clean waves rolling in. Swell is 4 ft from the ESE with a 14-second period (groundswell), and the water is sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—about 3° cooler. The combined energy is moderate at 1058. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, so it will be tidy, but the wave comment says it’s marginal. Monday looks similar, with a touch more size Monday afternoon hitting 8 ft, but that’s from the S with a short 9-second period and a strong cross-off wind of 35 km/h, making it a bit messy and bumpy. Not the best.

Tuesday the 28th is bigger again, with 8 ft SE swell and a longer 13-second period, but the wind is cross-off and the energy is climbing into strong territory (2882). Still, the quality is rated marginal, so it’s not a standout.

The first real window of quality appears on Wednesday the 29th morning. Swell drops to 7 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, and the wind goes nearly glassy—just 5 km/h from the north, almost cross-shore. The water is still clean and the energy is moderate (1208). This is our first proper look at clean conditions, but it’s only for the morning; the afternoon turns cross-onshore and choppy.

Thursday the 30th morning is a genuine bright spot. Swell is 5 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, wind is light cross-off from the NNW at 15 km/h, and conditions are described as “very good.” Energy is moderate (660). This is a solid session for advanced surfers looking for clean, lined-up waves at a point break.

Friday the 31st starts flat and poor with rain and a cross-chop, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. Swell is only 3 ft from the ESE at 11 seconds, but wind goes light cross-off and the wave comment says “good surf conditions.” A small but clean option for the end of the week.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Saturday the 1st of August has tiny 2 ft swell with a very long 16-second period, but it’s just too small to do much. The combined energy is weak at 241. This gap of small, marginal surf lasts through to Sunday morning.

Now for the standout period. The real action kicks off Sunday the 2nd of August afternoon. The swell jumps to 17 ft from the S with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is massive—5149 (very strong wave energy). The wave comment says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break, and it is. This is expert-only, and even then, the wind is cross and lumpy. Monday the 3rd sees the same massive 17 ft swell, but with strong cross-winds of 45 km/h and poor conditions. The energy is approaching 6000. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things start to clean up on Tuesday the 4th of August. Still a solid 15 ft from the SE at 13 seconds, but the wind goes cross-off from the SSW at 30 km/h, and the conditions are clean. Energy is enormous (6506). Again, it’s too big for most, but for a select few experts, this will be a session of a lifetime if they can handle it.

The true standout for skilled surfers comes on Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August. On the 5th, we have 10 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, with light cross-off winds from the SW at 10 km/h. Conditions are described as “excellent for experienced surfers.” Energy is still strong at 2971. Thursday morning the 6th is also excellent, with 8 ft from the ESE and a light N wind at 10 km/h. This is the pick of the entire forecast—big, clean, lined-up point break waves for experts.

After that, the swell slowly backs off. Friday the 7th morning has a clean 6 ft with an offshore wind from the W at 5 km/h (very glassy), but the period is short at 10 seconds. A nice session for the experienced crew. The next weekend sees another pulse of 12 ft S swell on the 8th, but with lumpy cross-winds, and then it stays in the 10 ft range through to the 10th with cross-off winds but persistent rain.

Best on offer: Without a doubt, Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August at Last Chance. 10 ft to 8 ft of ESE groundswell, light offshore wind, clean, powerful, and perfect for advanced surfers. It’s going to be heavy. The Sunday the 2nd pulse is massive, but too big and messy for most. Stick to the mid-week.

Rusty

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