
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 19 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, SSE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 17s period, S swell with 1,859 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 16 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 4s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 1.8m 17s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sat 19th Sep) | 6ft (1.9m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Mon 21st Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Last Chance.
The next couple of weeks start off a bit slow, but there's a serious pulse of energy building for the end of the run. We've got a bit of a quiet spell before things get interesting.
Tuesday the 15th kicks things off with a 5ft swell from the SSE, but the wind is a messy cross-shore and the energy is only moderate at 429. The afternoon gets worse with a stronger onshore breeze, so the first day is a write-off. Wednesday the 16th morning is the first real glimmer of hope. It's small, only 3ft from the SSE, but the wind is glassy. That's a big positive. The energy is weak (188), but for a tiny board or a longboard, it'd be clean and fun. The rest of that week is mostly plagued by poor conditions or onshore winds, with the energy levels bouncing around in the moderate range. Thursday the 17th is clean but small, and Friday the 18th brings a jump in energy but with strong, clean cross-off winds and a short period that chops things up.
Saturday the 19th afternoon shows a 6ft S swell (energy 710) but with a cross-shore breeze, making it messy. Sunday the 20th morning is clean with a 4ft S swell (12-second period) and moderate energy (515), but the swell direction isn't ideal for this break which wants NE.
Now, the real standout. Monday the 21st of September. The morning session sees a solid 6ft S groundswell with a 12-second period. The energy is strong at 1601, and the wind is a light cross-shore. The afternoon goes even bigger, with a 6ft S swell, a very long 17-second period, and huge energy at 1924. The wind turns cross-on, which is a downside, but that long period groundswell is going to wrap in with serious power. This is the pick of the first week.
The following week starts rough. Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd get hammered by strong cross-off winds. Wednesday morning is a massive 13ft S swell (energy 3325), and the afternoon is 16ft (energy 6692). That's big and powerful, but the wind is screaming, making it a challenging, expert-only zone. Thursday the 24th morning is even bigger with a 15ft S swell and energy hitting 10015. The wind is clean, but the file says it's predicted to be too big for this break, so it's likely just a washing machine.
Friday the 25th is still solid with a 7ft SSE swell (energy 1067) and clean wind, but it's not a standout. The run finishes on a high note. Monday the 28th of September brings a clean, glassy 8ft SSE swell (energy 846). This is a top pick for the second week. Then Tuesday the 29th morning has a 4ft SSE groundswell (11 seconds) with glassy conditions and 445 energy. Finally, the absolute best of the whole outlook lands on Wednesday the 30th of September morning. Glassy conditions, a 5ft S groundswell with a very long 16-second period, and excellent energy (1410). The file says it's excellent for experienced surfers. That long period groundswell at a point break like Last Chance is going to produce some beautiful, powerful lines. Get on that.
So, the standout sessions are Monday the 21st for the big groundswell, and Monday the 28th and especially Wednesday the 30th for the glassy, long-period perfection. The middle of the second week is blown out or too big, but the bookends are solid.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat night, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Fri afternoon, calm by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 14 | ESE 12 | S 7 | SSE 7 | SE 7 | S 8 | SSE 8 | S 12 | S 6 | SSE 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
658 | 415 | 325 | 207 | 145 | 132 | 255 | 142 | 113 | 79 | 237 | 541 | 376 | 160 | 447 | 277 | 396 | 196 | 314 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | 9:58AM1.72m | 10:25PM1.64m | 10:45AM1.66m | 11:11PM1.59m | 11:34AM1.60m | 11:55PM1.52m | 12:25PM1.54m | 00:41AM1.44m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | 3:51AM0.39m | 4:19PM0.39m | 4:38AM0.42m | 5:05PM0.42m | 5:24AM0.45m | 5:53PM0.44m | 6:09AM0.46m | 6:41PM0.45m | |||||||
— | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | SE 7 | ESE 11 | SSE 8 | S 12 | ESE 10 | SSE 8 |
658 | 415 | 325 | 207 | 145 | 132 | 255 | 142 | 113 | 58 | 237 | 177 | 119 | 160 | 135 | 277 | 396 | 83 | 314 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 13 | NE 13 | S 16 | NE 4 | SE 13 | SE 12 | S 13 | S 14 | S 16 | ESE 14 | NE 6 | NE 9 | NE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 8 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | S 16 | ESE 10 |
7 | 7 | 19 | 11 | 42 | 39 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 79 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 102 | 60 | 135 | 103 | 20 | 59 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | NE 13 | NE 13 | S 14 | NE 4 | S 13 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NE 11 | S 13 | NE 8 | SSW 16 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | SE 7 | E 11 | S 15 |
2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 104 | 45 | 70 | 68 | 196 | 16 | 2 | 41 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ENE 3 | NNE 4 | — | ENE 3 | WNW 2 | N 2 | NNE 4 | NNE 5 | S 6 | S 7 | SSE 7 | SSW 6 | S 8 | N 2 | W 3 | S 6 | — |
— | — | 6 | 16 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 237 | 541 | 376 | 112 | 447 | 1 | 2 | 196 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 130 | 54 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 23 | 90 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










