Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 18 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.3° C
1.5° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 6,810 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.0m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 14s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 12s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 12s
Most Powerful 3AM (Wed 19th Aug)16ft (5.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, let’s get into it.

First up, the whole 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of surf showing, but there are some real gaps and a lot of days where the conditions are just gonna be a fight. The real standout is sitting right in the middle of the window, around the 21st of August. Don't get too excited about the start, because we’re looking at a couple of days of messy, blown-out swell first.

The first couple of days, Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, are pretty much a washout for clean surfing. We’ve got a strong SW breeze and a ton of energy in the water – Tuesday morning is showing 1248 combined energy, and Wednesday morning it’s jumping up to 4861. That’s powerful, but it’s too big and too raw for Last Chance (Big Island) to handle. Wednesday morning’s swell is predicted at 4.5m from the SSE, and that’s way over the limit for this place. It’s just going to be a washing machine. The wind is cross-off, but with that size, it’s not going to be any kind of fun.

Thursday the 20th is still pretty average – wave heights around 2m, but the energy is dropping, and the conditions are still marginal. Not worth paddling out for anything special.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting.

The standout is the morning of Friday, the 21st of August. The wind drops right out – we’re talking 3 mph from the NNW, which is cross-off but essentially glassy. Combined energy is still solid at 1133, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the south with a long 13-second period. This is prime Last Chance. That long-period south groundswell is going to wrap in perfectly and the lack of wind will make it absolutely pristine. This is the pick of the whole forecast, hands down. The water temperature is a bit colder than average for this time of year, 54°F with a -3°F anomaly, so you’ll want the hood, but the surf will be worth it. This is the one to plan for.

The afternoon of Friday is still rideable but the wind swings onshore, and the period gets super long – 15 seconds – which can make it a little too straight at certain spots. Still, the morning is the clear winner.

After Friday, the surf backs right off. Saturday the 22nd has some small, clean waves, with the wind going offshore and light, around 3ft, but it’s pretty weak. Sunday the 23rd is almost flat, with energy dropping below 119. This marks the start of a real lull that runs through to the following Thursday. There are small, clean lumps around Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th of August, but they’re mostly under 4ft, and the energy is weak. It’s more of a longboard or a log session than anything serious.

The swell picks up again on Friday the 28th – we’re looking at 6ft from the SSE with a 9-second period and light offshore wind in the morning. It’s got some push, but it’s not the quality of that Friday the 21st.

The final note for the first week of September shows a pulse of longer-period south swell around the 1st and 2nd, with the 2nd seeing a nice 4ft SSW groundswell at 17 seconds and clean cross-off winds. It’s promising, but it’s far out, so treat it as a maybe.

A quick word on the break itself: Last Chance is a fairly consistent point break, so it’s not like it’s a rare treat when it turns on, but it does need the right conditions. It can get crowded sometimes, especially when it’s good, so be prepared to share the peak.

So, in short: don’t bother with the first few days. Your best bet by a long shot is the early session on Friday, the 21st of August. After that, it’s a waiting game, with a possible, less certain, fun morning on the 2nd of September.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 11°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Tue afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
!
3
4
3
2
3
4
2
3
2
2
1
0
1
0
2
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
S
9
4
S
10
5
S
12
4.5
SSE
11
3.5
S
11
2.5
S
14
1.9
S
8
2.1
S
8
1.5
S
8
1.4
S
13
1.5
S
15
1.3
S
13
1
S
12
0.9
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
11
0.6
SSE
10
0.4
SSE
10
0.3
ESE
12
1
S
9
1.1
S
12
1
S
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1157
2756
6548
4815
2883
2545
466
623
316
663
984
582
289
217
158
82
33
29
162
342
384
Wind (km/h)
40
SW
50
SW
55
SSW
40
S
35
SSW
20
SW
25
SW
20
SSW
5
W
5
NNW
15
ENE
15
NNW
15
WNW
5
W
15
NW
25
WNW
15
NW
15
WNW
10
WNW
10
W
10
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
on
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
High Tide
9:46AM1.75m
10:10PM1.71m
10:33AM1.72m
10:59PM1.67m
11:22AM1.67m
11:48PM1.62m
12:14PM1.62m
00:35AM1.57m
1:06PM1.58m
1:22AM1.51m
1:56PM1.54m
2:10AM1.45m
2:43PM1.52m
2:58AM1.40m
Low Tide
4:01PM0.28m
4:27AM0.30m
4:51PM0.34m
5:15AM0.36m
5:41PM0.40m
6:03AM0.41m
6:30PM0.44m
6:49AM0.45m
7:20PM0.47m
7:35AM0.46m
8:10PM0.48m
8:23AM0.46m
8:57PM0.47m
rain showers
rain showers
mod rain
light rain
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:46
6:45
6:43
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:32
5:34
5:35
5:36
5:36
5:37
5:37
 mm
1
2
7
2
2
Temp °C
10
9
9
9
10
10
11
11
10
13
13
12
16
17
14
17
18
13
15
18
13
Feels °C
-1
-2
-2
-1
2
3
6
6
8
10
9
8
13
15
9
13
15
8
12
15
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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