
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 16s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 21s period, S swell with 2,864 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 11s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 1.8m 21s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 21s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna lie—this 16-day window for Last Chance starts off pretty flat. We’ve got a couple of tiny, ordinary waves on Wednesday, but nothing worth paddling out for. The real action doesn’t kick in until the middle of the week, and there’s a big gap of nothingness after that.
Wednesday morning, July 15, is small and clean with a 2ft east swell, but it’s barely got any push (combined energy of all swells directed here is only 70). The water’s sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Thursday, July 16, picks up a fair bit—morning shows a 2ft easterly swell with a 15-second period, and the energy jumps to 239 (moderate). By Thursday afternoon, the swell shifts to 2ft from the ESE, and the period pushes to 17 seconds, giving it a nice groundswell feel with energy up to 403. The wind is offshore, so it’s clean.
Now, Friday morning, July 17—this is the standout. Glassy conditions, 6ft swell from the ESE, and a 16-second period. The energy is cranked right up to 1510 (strong). That’s proper groundswell, and Last Chance is a point break, so it’ll handle that long period beautifully. This is excellent stuff for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit cross-on, so get out early.
Saturday morning, July 18, is another glassy gem with 5ft from the ESE and a 14-second period, energy at 1224 (strong). Again, point break perfection. The afternoon turns cross-on and drops a bit.
Sunday, July 19, sees a new swell from the south at 6ft, period 19 seconds (very long period), and energy is a massive 2443. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the south direction might not be ideal for the break’s optimum. Still, for experienced surfers, it’s got punch. Monday, July 20, is similar—7ft to 7ft south swell, 15-second period, energy over 2000, and clean cross-off wind. The 7ft Monday afternoon is rated excellent for experienced surfers, but it’s big.
Tuesday, July 21, is a glassy morning with 5ft south swell, 13-second period, and energy at 1028—still strong. After that, the size drops off quick. By Wednesday, July 22, we’re down to 3ft, and then it’s a slow fade into small, weak waves. From Friday, July 24, right through to the end of the month, there’s a solid gap of days with no real recommendations—just tiny, poor surf or nothing worth mentioning. The energy dips below 100 at times. The water temp stays around that colder-than-normal mark throughout.
So, the call: Friday morning, July 17, and Saturday morning, July 18, are your best bets. Glassy, solid groundswell, and a point break that’ll handle the long period. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds are possible—it’s exposed, and there’s good reason to be out there. After that, the swell fades, and you’ve got a long stretch of small stuff. For the second week, it’s mostly small and inconsistent, with a few 2ft to 3ft waves that might be okay if you’re desperate.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 22 | S 19 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
61 | 55 | 37 | 215 | 235 | 1023 | 1447 | 1358 | 1121 | 834 | 746 | 2204 | 2053 | 1722 | 964 | 1853 | 1937 | 1546 | 933 | 659 | 353 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:14PM1.96m | 6:44AM1.79m | 7:11PM1.96m | 7:42AM1.78m | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | 8:58PM1.88m | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:59AM0.08m | 00:36AM0.09m | 12:53PM0.04m | 1:34AM0.06m | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | ||||||||
7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 22 | S 19 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 |
61 | 55 | 37 | 215 | 235 | 1023 | 1447 | 1358 | 1121 | 834 | 746 | 2204 | 2053 | 1722 | 964 | 1853 | 1937 | 1546 | 933 | 659 | 353 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | NE 4 | ESE 13 | S 17 | E 14 | S 16 | S 5 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 10 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 |
3 | 1 | 35 | 24 | 144 | 20 | 21 | 224 | 528 | 390 | 250 | 595 | 390 | 378 | 283 | 206 | 156 | 130 | 95 | 93 | 85 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | S 16 | S 16 | SW 8 | S 17 | SW 10 | S 15 | S 15 | S 15 | SW 20 | S 25 | S 9 | — | — | — | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — |
6 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 4 | 42 | 165 | 272 | 15 | 48 | 108 | — | — | — | 251 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 3 | — | NNE 5 | W 3 | SW 17 | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 5 | S 6 | SSE 6 | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 |
2 | — | 2 | 1 | 106 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 95 | 128 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 90 | 101 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










