
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 14s period, S swell with 9,242 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 5.0m 14s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right then, grab a cuppa, let’s see what’s on offer.
The wind’s howling cross-off from the southwest today, Saturday the 1st, with a solid 8ft S swell, but it’s a messy one with that 35 km/h breeze. The wave energy is a moderate 1023, but the conditions are marginal, so it’s not doing much for me. Water temps are sitting at 55°, about a degree and a half colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll feel that nip.
The real action, though, kicks off on Sunday morning the 2nd. That’s the standout. Last Chance (point) is waking up with the sky clear, a light offshore wind from the WSW at 10 km/h, and a solid 8ft SSE swell packing a punch at 12 seconds. The combined energy is a strong 1784, and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to get around for – clean, lined-up waves, and with that swell direction right in the sweet spot for the break. You’ll need a bit of paddle fitness for the sets, but it’ll be worth it.
Monday the 3rd keeps the good vibes going with a morning offshore from the west at 10 km/h and a 5ft SSE swell (595 energy). It’s still very good, and the afternoon turns glassy with a 4ft swell, perfect for a longboard or a cruiser. Crowds are a possibility here, so get in early.
Tuesday the 4th is a write-off for paddling. The swell jumps to 10ft in the morning, then a massive 15ft in the afternoon (6789 energy) with a 14-second period. That’s deep water for experts only, and the wind is a nasty cross-off at 40 km/h. This setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
We get a bit of a break, then Thursday the 6th delivers another top morning. Clear skies, a light offshore from the WSW at 10 km/h, and a 5ft S swell at 12 seconds (1047 energy). Excellent conditions for experienced surfers again, clean and lined up.
Friday the 7th morning is a real treat – glassy calm, no wind, and a 3ft SSE swell with a very long 20-second period (807 energy). That’s a groundswell with heaps of energy, but on a point break like this, those long-period waves will wrap in beautifully. It’ll be clean and fun, but the sets will be spaced out, so you can take your time.
From Saturday the 8th, things start to get a bit mixed. The morning has a nice 6ft SSE swell with a 14-second period and a light cross-off, but afternoon winds turn onshore. Then Sunday the 9th serves up a big 13ft S swell again, but with messy cross-shore winds.
The second week, from Monday the 10th onwards, is a long stretch of poor conditions. The swell stays big, sometimes over 15ft, but the wind is a relentless cross-onshore from the northeast, creating choppy, lumpy, and unrideable surf. That run lasts until the morning of Saturday the 15th, which is a solid gap of about five days where you’re better off doing something else.
Finally, on Sunday the 16th, the outlook improves. The morning has a 6ft S swell with a 15-second period and a gentle cross-shore, but the afternoon turns glassy with a 5ft S swell (932 energy) and very good conditions. A promising end to the run, but remember, it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the charts.
So, overall, the best bet is Sunday the 2nd and Thursday the 6th. Get out there for the clean stuff while it’s good.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 5°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Tue morning, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | S 10 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 12 | S 10 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 20 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
836 | 1507 | 3671 | 1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 326 | 488 | 1454 | 6783 | 6884 | 3732 | 2499 | 1505 | 625 | 572 | 445 | 507 | 2832 | 2516 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | ||||||||
7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | |
— | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | -2 | -3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | SE 16 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 12 | S 14 | NE 12 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 |
56 | 118 | 2826 | 1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 326 | 488 | 825 | 6 | 6884 | 3732 | 2499 | 1505 | 625 | 572 | 445 | 296 | 2832 | 2516 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 16 | E 11 | E 10 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 13 | S 18 | NE 12 | — | — | NE 12 | NE 11 | ESE 16 | SE 11 | S 11 | SE 13 | SSE 20 | SSE 10 | NE 14 |
119 | 37 | 8 | 10 | 85 | 8 | 37 | 82 | 58 | 6 | — | — | 5 | 5 | 26 | 368 | 240 | 45 | 507 | 246 | 8 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 18 | NE 17 | NE 16 | NE 16 | NE 15 | SE 12 | NE 13 | S 20 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 11 | SE 14 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | ENE 15 | — |
12 | 12 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 25 | 7 | 69 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | S 10 | S 13 | — | — | — | NW 3 | WNW 3 | SSW 12 | S 10 | S 14 | SSW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 12 |
836 | 1507 | 3671 | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1080 | 1454 | 6783 | 9774 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 72 | 103 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 86 | 287 | 101 | 101 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











