Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 08 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.0°C
0.7° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, S swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, S swell with 3,262 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 2.1m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 11) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Tue 8th Sep)7ft (2.2m) 8s
Best Surf 3AM (Sun 13th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 16s
Most Powerful 3AM (Sun 13th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

## The Long Game

The next couple of days are pretty flat and messy, so don’t rush out. Tuesday’s got some size but it’s mostly windslop and cross-off, with rain around. Not worth the paddle. Wednesday morning cleans up with a bit of glass, but the swell drops right out. We’re hanging on until the weekend, honestly.

The real story starts this Sunday, the 13th. We’ve got a proper pulse of south swell showing up, and it’s got some teeth. That’s the standout window. It’s still over a week out, so treat it as a promise with a grommet’s attention span, but the models are singing.

Sunday morning is the pick of the whole run. We’re looking at clean conditions, light west wind, and solid 8ft of south swell. That’s proper size, maybe a bit much for the learners, but for those of us who charge, it’s game on. The energy reading is through the roof, over four figures – this is a real groundswell event. The period is long and powerful, which means it'll push through the lineup better, but keep an eye on the tide. It might wall up a bit. Last Chance (this region) is exposed to that south energy, and with the west-northwest flow, it should be handling it well. Some crowds are possible, so get in early.

Monday morning, the 14th, is still very, very good. Slightly smaller at 7ft, but it’s glassy as a mirror. If you can’t make Sunday, that’s your window.

After that, things back way off. Tuesday the 15th has some waist-high leftovers with clean morning conditions, but it’s not a day to travel for. The following Saturday the 19th shows a bit of a rebound, with a punchy 6ft on the afternoon, but the winds get a bit weird. The real next big thing is further out – the 18th. The Friday before that is another solid day with 8ft forecasts, but that’s a long way off, so just a heads-up.

The run from the 16th to the 21st is mostly small and mixed at best. There are a couple of clean mornings, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

Right now, the water temp is sitting around 55°, but that’s almost a degree and a half cooler than it should be for this time of year. It’s not a freeze-out, but you’ll want the hood and gloves.

One last thing – the 22nd and 23rd show some decent swell, but that 25 mph wind is going to shred it to bits. That’s more of a kiteboarding session unless the storm tracks perfectly. For now, circle Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th on the calendar. That’s the good stuff.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Tue morning, calm by Wed morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Fri morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds.

Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
2
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
4
4
3
4
0
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SSE
8
2.4
SE
8
1.8
SE
8
1.5
SE
8
1.4
SE
8
1.1
SE
8
0.9
SE
7
0.7
SE
7
0.4
S
15
0.4
SE
7
1.7
S
7
0.5
S
18
0.4
S
17
0.7
S
16
2.1
S
16
2.4
S
16
2.1
S
16
1.7
S
15
2.2
S
13
2
S
8
1.8
S
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1027
771
448
268
255
147
79
56
68
17
303
150
91
246
2262
2948
2234
1241
1704
494
879
Wind (km/h)
30
SSW
25
SW
15
SW
0
NNW
15
ENE
15
NNW
15
WNW
0
NW
30
SW
30
SSW
15
SSW
10
NNW
25
SW
20
S
15
N
10
W
10
SW
20
SW
5
WNW
20
ENE
20
WSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
off
High Tide
2:43PM1.74m
3:14AM1.61m
3:41PM1.74m
4:12AM1.62m
4:37PM1.75m
5:08AM1.63m
5:33PM1.75m
6:03AM1.67m
6:25PM1.75m
6:56AM1.71m
7:15PM1.74m
7:45AM1.75m
8:04PM1.73m
Low Tide
9:05PM0.15m
9:27AM0.13m
10:02PM0.13m
10:25AM0.11m
10:59PM0.13m
11:19AM0.11m
11:53PM0.14m
12:11PM0.13m
00:45AM0.17m
1:02PM0.18m
1:33AM0.22m
1:52PM0.24m
2:19AM0.27m
light rain
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:18
6:16
6:16
6:13
6:13
6:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
 mm
2
2
8
1
1
1
Temp °C
10
11
10
12
12
11
15
16
12
10
11
11
12
11
10
15
15
14
13
13
13
Feels °C
4
6
6
10
8
7
13
14
9
4
7
7
6
6
8
12
12
10
10
9
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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