Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 13 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.3° C
1.0° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, S swell with 3,204 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 10s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 12s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3PM (Tue 14th Jul)1.5ft (0.5m) 10s
Best Surf 6PM (Fri 17th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 10s
Most Powerful 9PM (Fri 17th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


G'day, Rusty here. Let's break down the next 16 days.

We're kicking off with a slow start, but the first real action worth paddling for hits on the weekend of the 18th. There's a few small, clean waves before that to keep you honest.

Last Chance is a point break, exposed to the NE swell, and it's strictly for the advanced crew. The water is sitting at 56°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you'll want a thick wetsuit.

The first semi-decent window is Monday morning, the 13th of July. We've got a 3ft S swell, with a period of 11 seconds, and a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate (265). It's clean, but tiny. Not a standout, but it's a start.

We then hit a real lull through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday morning. The surf is tiny, around 2ft to 2ft, and the energy drops off. Thursday afternoon the 16th, however, things look up. A 2ft ESE swell arrives with a very long 17-second period, and the wind goes offshore from the WNW. The combined energy jumps to a strong 328. It's clean, long-period groundswell, and for a point break like Last Chance, that's a treat. A quiet, glassy option.

Friday the 17th sees a big jump in size. We're looking at 5ft to 6ft ESE swell with a 16-second period, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the SSW at 15 mph. The combined energy is massive (1115-2236), but the conditions are described as "marginal." It's big, powerful, and on the edge of being clean. This is for the experienced crew.

Now, here's the real standout. Saturday morning, the 18th of July. The forecast is for 5ft ESE swell, 14-second period, and the wind goes glassy, dead calm from the NNE at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a very strong 1596. This is the pick of the first week. It's clean, powerful, and the point will be handling that ESE swell beautifully. This is "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." The only thing is, crowds at Last Chance are "sometimes" an issue, so get in early.

Sunday the 19th drops off to 4ft, but the wind is fresh from the SSW. It's still a solid option for the brave.

Then we get a second pulse of energy. Monday the 20th is a bit messy with rain and strong wind, but Tuesday the 21st of July is another serious standout. We're looking at a 8ft SSE swell with a 16-second period in the morning, and a light cross-offshore SW wind. The combined energy is a colossal 2728. This is for experts only. It's big, it's powerful, and it's clean. The afternoon holds at 7ft. This is heavy, world-class potential.

The quality hangs on through Wednesday and Thursday the 22nd and 23rd, with 6ft to 5ft SSE/SE swells, clean conditions, and more moderate energy (799 to 511). Excellent, solid waves.

After that, the swell backs off into the last week of July. We get some small, clean 2ft to 3ft ESE swells through the 24th, 25th, and 26th, with glassy conditions on Sunday morning. It's not the big stuff, but it's a fun way to finish the forecast period. The following Monday and Tuesday the 27th and 28th look a bit choppy and less appealing.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best of the best is Saturday morning, the 18th of July for clean, powerful, glassy conditions, and Tuesday the 21st of July for the big, expert-level grunt.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, strong winds from the SSW by Sat night).

Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2
3
2
3
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
S
11
0.8
ESE
9
0.6
S
13
0.5
S
12
0.5
E
10
0.4
ESE
10
0.5
E
11
0.5
E
10
0.4
ESE
13
0.6
E
15
0.5
ESE
17
1.3
ESE
16
1.5
ESE
16
1.7
ESE
16
3
S
12
1.5
ESE
14
1.5
ESE
14
1.3
ESE
13
0.8
S
20
0.9
S
18
1.6
S
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
144
96
123
72
49
34
62
55
57
159
160
823
1096
1447
2188
956
892
595
484
503
1147
Wind (km/h)
10
NNW
10
N
15
N
20
N
15
NNW
15
NNW
5
NNW
5
ESE
10
NW
15
WNW
10
WNW
20
W
25
SSW
20
SW
10
WNW
5
NNE
15
ENE
25
SW
30
SSW
25
SW
30
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
4:14PM1.90m
4:46AM1.78m
5:14PM1.94m
5:45AM1.79m
6:14PM1.96m
6:44AM1.79m
7:11PM1.96m
7:42AM1.78m
8:06PM1.93m
8:36AM1.77m
8:58PM1.88m
9:27AM1.75m
9:50PM1.81m
Low Tide
10:00AM0.22m
10:38PM0.19m
11:01AM0.15m
11:37PM0.13m
11:59AM0.08m
00:36AM0.09m
12:53PM0.04m
1:34AM0.06m
1:47PM0.03m
2:28AM0.06m
2:42PM0.06m
3:21AM0.09m
3:36PM0.13m
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
cloud
cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:22
7:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:02
5:04
5:04
5:05
5:06
5:06
5:07
 mm
1
1
1
Temp °C
12
14
12
16
15
14
16
16
14
15
17
12
12
11
10
12
13
12
10
10
10
Feels °C
9
11
9
13
12
11
14
14
12
11
14
8
6
6
7
9
10
9
2
3
3
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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