Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and pull up a stool. Rusty here, lookin' at the charts for the next couple of weeks.

To be brutally honest, the first few days are a write-off. We’ve got a solid, but raw, south-southeast swell hammering Last Chance from Monday the 17th, but it’s blowin’ a solid 22 mph cross-offshore from the SSW. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine with a side of rain. The water’s sitting at 54°F, which is a fair bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll be wanting a good hood and booties if you’re even thinking about it. The swell energy is massive, over 1800, but it’s just messy and way too big. Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell peak, with serious height (13ft to 15ft) and the wind still howling. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, the wind is a problem. The forecast even says it’s too big for this point, so we’re not touching it.

There’s a bit of a gap there, but things start to look up by Friday the 21st of August. The big news is Friday morning: a 5ft south swell, with a proper 16-second period, and the wind goes glassy from the northwest. At Last Chance, that’s a recipe for some clean, long walls. The energy is still solid (1466), and while it’s not massive, it’s gonna be super fun for the experienced crew. Just be aware that long-period groundswell like this (16 seconds) can make the sets a bit shifty here, so timing your paddle-out is key. Friday afternoon has a bit of a cross-shore wind, but it’s light, so still plenty of fun.

Saturday the 22nd sees the swell drop right off to around 3ft, but the wind goes offshore from the west-northwest at 9 mph. The energy drops to 275, but it will be clean and small, perfect for a longboard or a funboard. Sunday the 23rd is tiny and not worth the drive.

The real standout, the one to circle on the calendar, is Monday the 24th of August through Wednesday the 26th. Monday morning has a 3ft south swell with a 17-second period, and clean offshore wind from the west at 16 mph. That’s a proper groundswell with clean conditions. By Monday afternoon, it’s still clean, the wind is gentler, and the swell bumps up to 4ft with that same 17-second period, giving you an energy reading of 776. That’s a very good window.

Tuesday the 25th is a bit more marginal, with the wind turning cross-offshore, but the swell is still there. Wednesday the 26th morning is where it’s at again: a 6ft south swell, 12-second period, and clean offshore wind from the west-northwest. The energy is 821, and the forecast calls it “very good.” That’s your best bet of the run—a solid head-high+ wave, clean, with that classic point break wall. Get out there.

After that, the wind goes onshore for a few days, spoiling the party. There’s a bit of a pulse on the 28th of August with a 6ft south swell and a 15-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s a messy, choppy mess. Not worth it.

The end of the month and into September is a washout, with onshore winds and small, messy swells. The first of September has a slight hope with a clean window, but the swell is tiny and period is short.

So, to wrap it up: the start is a disaster, the middle of next week (Monday 24th to Wednesday 26th) is your money time, and then it fades out. Get the Friday the 21st as a warm-up, but lock in that Wednesday the 26th morning for the best session.

Rusty.

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