Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve only got one spot to talk about: Last Chance – a tough point break for advanced surfers. The water’s at 55°F, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want a thicker suit.

The action starts on Tuesday afternoon, July 28th. There’s a 8ft swell from the ESE, with a 13-second period – that’s real groundswell energy (combined energy of 2200). The wind’s cross-off at 12 mph, so it’s clean but big – for experts only. The surf is marginal, but there’s a window.

The first real standout is Wednesday morning, July 29th. The swell drops to 6ft from the ESE, still a nice 13-second period, and the wind goes glassy – 3 mph from the NNW. Clean, glassy conditions, excellent for experienced surfers (combined energy of 1075). That’s the best of the early run. By afternoon, the wind switches cross-on and the quality tanks, so make the morning.

Thursday, July 30th and Friday, July 31st see the swell easing to 5ft down to 3ft, with ESE swell and 11-second periods. Winds are cross-off, so it’s clean but small – combined energy drops from 666 to 220. Not a total loss, but you’ll be scratching.

Then we hit a rough patch. Saturday, August 1st through Sunday, August 2nd bring light rain and strong winds – 25 to 31 mph from the SW and SSW. Swell spikes to 12ft on Saturday afternoon and 10ft on Sunday, but with those strong cross-off winds, it’s messy and marginal. Combined energy hits 2352 and 2102, but the quality is poor. Leave it.

Monday, August 3rd is a washout too – 7ft swell from the SSE, but light winds and marginal surf.

The next standout is Tuesday, August 4th, but it’s a beast. The morning brings a 13ft swell from the S, 12-second period, with a fresh cross-off. By afternoon, it jumps to 16ft from the S with a 15-second period – that’s a massive, long-period groundswell (combined energy of 16852). The wind is cross-off, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Experts only, and even then, it’s risky.

Wednesday morning, August 5th is another highlight. The swell settles to 8ft from the SSE, 14-second period, with offshore wind at 3 mph from the WSW. Glassy, clean, excellent for experienced surfers (combined energy of 2596). That afternoon, the wind goes cross and it gets choppy, so hit it early.

From Thursday, August 6th through Sunday, August 9th, we’ve got a mix of S and SSE swell, 7ft to 6ft, with periods from 11 to 16 seconds. Winds are mostly cross-off or cross, with moderate breezes. The combined energy stays in the 1000s to 2000s, but the surf is marginal – not bad, but not firing. Saturday, August 8th sees the swell dropping to 6ft, and Sunday, August 9th has a 7ft E swell, clean but nothing special.

Monday, August 10th to Wednesday, August 12th is a slow fade. Swell from the E and ENE, 4ft to 5ft, with periods of 9 to 11 seconds. The standout in this stretch is Wednesday morning, August 12th: 5ft from the E, 11-second period, and glassy conditions with 3 mph from the NW. Combined energy of 607, and it’s glassy – that’s your best bet for a clean, fun session in the second week. The afternoon gets a cross-on wind, so it’s a morning-only call.

Overall, the best of the bunch is Wednesday morning, July 29th for glassy, clean waves, and Wednesday morning, August 5th for offshore winds and solid swell. The August 4th monster swell is a sight to see, but it’s too big for most. Stay sharp, and keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

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