Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 09 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
13.1° C
1.3° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, SSE swell with 5,580 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 6PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Sat 11th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 9s
Best Surf 9PM (Sat 11th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 9s
Most Powerful12AM (Fri 10th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


Right, let’s have a look at what’s on offer. The only game in town for the next couple of weeks is the point break, Last Chance. It's an advanced spot, exposed to the swell, and it needs a solid east-northeast pulse to really fire. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent steamer.

We’ve got a bit of a rough start. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are a write-off with strong cross-shore winds and a lot of energy in the water – combined energy is 3418 and 5096 (strong to very strong) – but it’s messy. It’s not worth paddling out. Saturday the 11th still looks marginal, but the afternoon shows a little improvement with a cleaner look as the wind drops.

The first real glimmer of hope comes Sunday morning, the 12th. The wind goes light offshore from the WSW, which will clean things right up. Swell is a manageable 5 ft from the SE, with a period of 10 seconds. The energy is a moderate 657. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun for the advanced crew. That’s a solid window.

The middle of the week dies off. Monday and Tuesday are small, with poor surf conditions. The water goes flat, and only a few weak pulses show up. Thursday the 16th however, is a standout. The morning is glassy, and the swell is a long-period 16-second groundswell from the ESE, pushing 2 ft but with a combined energy of 403. The afternoon ramps up to 4 ft with a 15-second period, and it’s clean. This is a point break, so that long period will set up beautifully.

Now, the real highlight of the whole forecast. Friday the 17th, in the afternoon, is the best you’ll see. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the ESE, with a 16-second period and a combined energy of 2123. The wind goes glassy, dead calm. That’s going to be absolutely firing for experienced surfers. It’s big, but the conditions will be excellent. Saturday the 18th still has some size, but the wind turns onshore and messes it up.

After that, the second week looks pretty grim. The wind gets strong and onshore from the ENE, with a lot of rain. The swell stays around 6 ft to 10 ft, but the conditions are poor. The only flash of potential is Friday the 24th, with a 10 ft ESE swell and a 12-second period, but the wind is cross-on and lumpy. That one’s a long shot, more than a week out, so keep an eye on it but don’t bank on it.

So, for the whole period, your best bets are Sunday morning the 12th for a clean, smaller session, and the absolute standout is Friday afternoon the 17th for the big, glassy, long-period groundswell. That’s the one to clear your schedule for.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 56mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the S on Thu night, light winds from the WSW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
3
3
3
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
SSE
10
4.5
SSE
11
5
SSE
11
4
SE
10
3
ESE
10
3
SE
10
2.2
SSE
10
2.4
SE
10
1.8
SE
9
1.6
SE
10
1.4
ESE
9
1.1
ESE
9
0.7
S
12
0.9
ESE
8
0.4
S
10
0.4
S
13
1.1
NE
6
0.5
E
10
0.5
E
10
0.5
E
10
0.6
E
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2908
4682
5580
3328
1454
1430
970
1077
538
452
320
184
129
101
36
50
93
50
52
52
103
Wind (km/h)
40
S
45
S
50
S
40
S
35
SSW
25
SSW
25
S
20
SSW
10
SW
5
WSW
10
E
15
NNW
15
N
20
N
15
N
15
N
0
WNW
5
NW
5
N
10
NE
5
W
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
off
on
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
12:26PM1.63m
00:54AM1.67m
1:22PM1.70m
1:49AM1.70m
2:19PM1.77m
2:46AM1.73m
3:16PM1.84m
3:46AM1.75m
4:14PM1.90m
4:46AM1.78m
5:14PM1.94m
5:45AM1.79m
6:14PM1.96m
Low Tide
6:42PM0.36m
7:07AM0.30m
7:39PM0.34m
8:00AM0.29m
8:39PM0.30m
8:58AM0.26m
9:39PM0.25m
10:00AM0.22m
10:38PM0.19m
11:01AM0.15m
11:37PM0.13m
11:59AM0.08m
00:36AM0.09m
mod rain
mod rain
heavy rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:00
5:00
5:01
5:01
5:02
5:04
5:04
 mm
7
8
30
4
1
4
1
1
Temp °C
13
12
11
11
10
10
11
10
10
10
11
10
13
14
12
15
16
13
15
16
14
Feels °C
5
4
1
3
2
3
5
5
6
8
8
6
8
9
8
13
15
10
12
13
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Last Chance:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest