Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Last Chance. This is a proper point break, exposed to the swell and it needs a solid NE direction to really light up. We’ve got a slow start, but the second half of this forecast window is where the magic is.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Tuesday the 21st is the only action early on, with a solid 7ft S swell arriving, but it’s got a 16-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. For a point break like this, that’s a dream setup. The morning has a clean cross-off breeze, and by the afternoon it turns glassy. The wave energy is strong (2298), so this is for experienced surfers only. It’s a standout, but it’s the only real game in town for the start.

We then hit a dry spell. From Wednesday morning the 22nd, the swell drops fast. Thursday and Friday are tiny, with poor conditions and onshore wind. Saturday the 25th is a complete no-go, with howling offshore winds but hardly any swell. Sunday the 26th is a total washout with rain and messy onshores. That’s a solid 5-day gap of nothing worth paddling out for.

But hold on. Monday the 27th is where it kicks back off. The swell jumps back up to 6ft from the ESE, with a 13-second period, under a clean offshore wind from the W. That’s a moderate offshore, clean and lined up. The energy is strong (2089). This is good, solid surf for the experienced crew.

The real standout of the whole period, though, is Tuesday the 28th. We’ve got a 10ft SSE swell, and while the period is a shorter 10 seconds, the wind is a moderate offshore from the WSW. The energy is very strong (3358). This is big, powerful, and clean. It’s too big for anyone but experts, and crowd-wise, it’s a spot that can get busy, so expect a few other chargers in the water. This is the best on offer.

The quality holds through Wednesday and Thursday the 29th and 30th as the swell eases back down to a more manageable 7ft to 5ft range, still with clean offshore or cross-off winds. Friday the 31st stays clean but the swell drops further.

Then we get a final little pulse on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning starts glassy with a 5ft S swell, and the afternoon goes glassy again with a 6ft S swell and a 14-second period. The wave energy is strong (1504). It’s clean and inviting, but it’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it – it’s promising but not locked in.

After that, Monday the 3rd of August throws a massive 16ft S swell at us, but with a 15-second period and cross-on wind, it’s just too big and onshore for this break. The energy is extreme (11584), but it’s a pass for a paddle board. The swell stays huge through Tuesday the 4th, and into Wednesday the 5th it’s still 12ft and messy. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a surfer’s paradise.

So, to wrap it up: the first true standout is the glassy Tuesday afternoon session on the 21st. The absolute best of the lot is the big, clean Tuesday the 28th. After that, the Sunday the 2nd of August glassy session is the long-range one to watch. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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