Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 6 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 6 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 7 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 14s period, SSE swell with 2,265 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.4m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s break down what’s on the horizon. The first real surf is a few days out, but it’s a cracker. After some sloppy conditions, we’ve got a solid window of clean, glassy waves.
The big one is Friday morning, August 7th at Last Chance. This point break is going to turn on with a 3ft groundswell from the SSE, with a very long period of 17 seconds. The wind is glassy, zero, so the waves will be flawless. The water’s a bit cold at 55°F, and the combined wave energy is strong (1431). This is a session for the experienced crew, and it’s fairly consistent. This is the best on offer.
Saturday morning, August 8th, is also a gem. The swell comes up a bit to 6ft from the SSE, with a long period of 12 seconds. Again, glassy conditions with a light north wind. The wave energy is strong (1361). Another excellent window for the advanced surfer.
After that, the swell drops and the wind gets messy. From Sunday afternoon through the following weekend, it’s small and mostly blown out. Nothing to plan a trip around.
Looking further out, Tuesday, August 18th (afternoon) is a very promising, but long-range, call. The wind goes glassy again, calm, with a 7ft swell from the S and a very long period of 14 seconds. The wave energy is very strong (1749). This is big, powerful, and for experts only. The point break will handle those long-period lines well.
Wednesday, August 19th keeps the size with 6ft and 6ft swells from the S, but the wind picks up to a fresh cross-off. It’s clean and powerful, but the wind is noticeable.
So, lock in that Friday morning on the 7th. It’s the cleanest, most promising window in the near term. The big stuff on the 18th is a potential classic, but it’s a long way off.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 14 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 9 | NE 9 | SE 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2324 | 757 | 761 | 625 | 1240 | 1609 | 880 | 847 | 495 | 379 | 260 | 302 | 135 | 100 | 90 | 132 | 176 | 108 | 56 | 174 | 72 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | 2:00PM1.77m | 2:29AM1.68m | 2:59PM1.81m | 3:29AM1.69m | 3:57PM1.84m | 4:28AM1.70m | 4:56PM1.86m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | 7:41AM0.25m | 8:22PM0.24m | 8:41AM0.22m | 9:21PM0.19m | 9:43AM0.16m | 10:20PM0.15m | 10:43AM0.10m | 11:18PM0.11m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  | | | | | |  |  |  | | |  |  |  | | | |
 | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — |
 | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
Feels °C | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | NE 7 |
| kJ | 1720 | 611 | 761 | 610 | 1240 | 1609 | 880 | 847 | 495 | 379 | 260 | 302 | 135 | 100 | 90 | 132 | 176 | 108 | 56 | 58 | 44 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 15 | SE 14 | SE 13 | SSE 17 | SSE 10 | SE 11 | SSE 16 | SE 11 | E 14 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 | E 12 | E 12 | NE 6 | SE 12 | SSE 9 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SE 8 |
| kJ | 23 | 92 | 265 | 625 | 363 | 127 | 397 | 40 | 4 | 188 | 232 | 11 | 3 | 15 | 54 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 31 | 29 | 72 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 18 | NE 17 | S 20 | SE 13 | SE 12 | NE 14 | SE 12 | NE 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | S 17 | SE 14 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 16 | S 13 | S 12 | NE 10 | E 13 |
| kJ | 6 | 12 | 8 | 196 | 306 | 8 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 11 | SSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | N 2 | NNE 3 | NE 4 | NNE 5 | — | — | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 9 | NW 3 |
| kJ | 2324 | 757 | 616 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | — | — | 35 | 45 | 54 | 51 | 174 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 86 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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