Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 10s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, SSE swell with 5,580 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 10s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 10s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sat 11th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sat 11th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Alright, this is Rusty here, looking at our local setup for the next couple of weeks.
Honestly, the next week or so is pretty ordinary for us, with a lot of lumpy, windy days and only marginal conditions. But if you can be patient, there's a serious pulse building for the end of July that makes it all worth it.
The water temp at Last Chance is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than what we'd usually expect for this time of year, so you'll want a decent wetsuit.
Things start a little slow. Wednesday the 8th has some 6ft groundswell from the south-east, but with a strong cross-offshore breeze, it'll be clean but pretty average. A few smaller days follow, but the wind is mostly cross or onshore, keeping the quality down.
Sunday the 12th morning is a little teaser. The wind goes glassy with the swell dropping to 5ft. The wave energy is weak (592), but for a couple of hours it'll look smooth and inviting.
Now, the real story starts Thursday the 16th of July. A solid 7ft south-east groundswell, with a nice 14-second period, and light offshore wind from the west-southwest. That's going to set up clean, powerful lines at Last Chance. This is the standout of the window for advanced surfers—the combined energy is strong (1823), and it's a point break handling that long-period energy well.
The following week keeps pumping. Tuesday the 21st of July is the absolute peak for me. We're looking at 8ft to 10ft south-south-east groundswell with 11 to 12-second intervals. The wind stays light and cross-offshore, making for excellent, clean conditions. The energy readings are massive (3288 on Tuesday morning), and this is squarely in expert territory. For anyone with the skills, this will be the best session of the entire forecast.
It stays big through the 22nd and 23rd of July, with consistent 12ft south-east swell and a 12-second period, though the wind does pick up a tad and turns more cross-shore. Still, that's serious power.
So, the short version: the next week is for staying patient and doing the odd glassy dawn patrol. The prize is the week starting July 16th, especially the 21st. That's the one to circle on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 44mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 9°C on Fri afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Thu night, light winds from the SW by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wed 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | E 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | S 12 | ESE 9 | S 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 17 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 684 | 504 | 1928 | 2570 | 5580 | 3200 | 1578 | 1699 | 1172 | 880 | 670 | 387 | 307 | 172 | 132 | 106 | 38 | 74 | 51 | 91 | 94 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 00:04AM1.63m | 12:26PM1.63m | 00:54AM1.67m | 1:22PM1.70m | 1:49AM1.70m | 2:19PM1.77m | 2:46AM1.73m | 3:16PM1.84m | 3:46AM1.75m | 4:14PM1.90m | 4:46AM1.78m | 5:14PM1.94m | 5:45AM1.79m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:49PM0.35m | 6:18AM0.31m | 6:42PM0.36m | 7:07AM0.30m | 7:39PM0.34m | 8:00AM0.29m | 8:39PM0.30m | 8:58AM0.26m | 9:39PM0.25m | 10:00AM0.22m | 10:38PM0.19m | 11:01AM0.15m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:59AM0.08m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 |
 | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | 5:04 |
mm | — | 7 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 2 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | E 10 | SSE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 |
| kJ | 684 | 504 | 1928 | 449 | 133 | 69 | 1578 | 1249 | 1172 | 880 | 670 | 387 | 307 | 172 | 131 | 106 | 38 | 74 | 51 | 91 | 85 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | SSW 9 | E 10 | NE 9 | SW 20 | — | — | SSW 15 | S 11 | S 19 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 5 | NE 5 | ESE 17 |
| kJ | 88 | 416 | 443 | 39 | 97 | — | — | 135 | 39 | 179 | 334 | 205 | 173 | 103 | 132 | 84 | 30 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 94 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | NNE 9 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | S 15 | S 16 | S 10 | S 10 | — | — | S 6 | — | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 13 | S 9 | S 8 | ESE 13 |
| kJ | 21 | 49 | 58 | 25 | — | — | — | 121 | 43 | 35 | 17 | — | — | 7 | — | 46 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 4 | S 8 | — | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SE 10 | S 8 | SE 10 | SSW 8 | S 7 | — | — | — | — | N 2 | NE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 17 | 323 | — | 2570 | 5580 | 3200 | 597 | 1699 | 176 | 120 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 7 | 13 | 18 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 12 | 78 | 137 | 158 | 153 | 102 | 90 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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