Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, S swell with 8,197 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 1.4m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 14s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Imperial version:
Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for the Last Chance area.
We’ve got a pretty wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks. The water is running a bit cooler than usual at 54°F, about 3°F below average, so you’ll want a decent spring suit. The first few days are a write-off, honestly. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are a mess with strong winds and messy, poor surf. The energy is actually huge – 2629 on Monday morning – but that’s 12ft swell with a short 10-second period and strong cross-shore wind, so it’s all chop. Kite surfers might get a look, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass.
The first real window opens up on Thursday the 20th afternoon. The swell drops to 5ft from the S with a nice long 13-second period, and the wind goes light. The combined energy is 990 – moderate – and conditions are clean. Friday the 21st morning is the standout of the early run: glassy conditions with a 5ft S swell, 12-second period, and only 3 mph of wind. That’s 817 energy, but it’s clean and smooth. The break is a point, so that long-period S groundswell will wrap in nicely. It’s fairly consistent and exposed, but expect crowds sometimes – it’s a quality spot.
Saturday the 22nd is still fun with clean 3ft to 3ft waves, but the energy drops off fast. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th are tiny and ordinary – under 2ft with very weak energy (78 to 32). A real lull.
Then things pick up again. Thursday the 27th afternoon is a gem: 6ft from the S, 13-second period, light offshore wind, and 1140 energy. That’s excellent for experienced surfers. Then Saturday the 29th is the big one – 8ft S swell, 12-second period, glassy conditions in the afternoon, and 1933 energy in the morning. That’s a serious groundswell, and with glassy offshores, it’ll be one of the best days of the whole run. But at 8ft, this is for experienced surfers only. The break is a point, so it should handle that size well.
The last few days of the month fade out again into small, onshore junk. Bottom line: the best windows are Friday 21st morning for a clean, fun session, and Saturday 29th for the big, powerful glassy day. The 29th is the standout, but it’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 10°C on Sun night, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SSW on Tue night, fresh winds from the SSW by Wed afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed night, calm by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 8 | SSE 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2385 | 2081 | 1568 | 1236 | 1197 | 2866 | 8197 | 6211 | 4699 | 2557 | 1391 | 835 | 370 | 560 | 1204 | 703 | 309 | 224 | 119 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | 11:22AM1.67m | 11:48PM1.62m | 12:14PM1.62m | 00:35AM1.57m | 1:06PM1.58m | 1:22AM1.51m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | 5:15AM0.36m | 5:41PM0.40m | 6:03AM0.41m | 6:30PM0.44m | 6:49AM0.45m | 7:20PM0.47m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  | | | |  |  |  | | | | | |  | |
 | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — |
mm | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | — | SE 10 | SE 9 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 8 | SSE 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
| kJ | 547 | 300 | 234 | 110 | 60 | 19 | — | 341 | 406 | 2557 | 1391 | 835 | 370 | 560 | 1204 | 703 | 309 | 224 | 119 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | SSW 16 | E 10 | S 14 | — | E 18 | — | SE 14 | SE 14 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | S 12 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 9 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | 9 | 306 | 204 | 148 | — | 6 | — | 47 | 46 | 551 | 380 | 250 | 110 | 109 | 128 | 90 | 36 | 20 | 25 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 11 | SSE 17 | S 16 | E 14 | E 15 | E 13 | ESE 12 | E 13 |
| kJ | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | 59 | 195 | 4 | 17 | 31 | 29 | 14 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | — | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | — | — | — | NNW 2 | WNW 3 | WNW 3 | NNW 3 |
| kJ | 2385 | 2081 | 1568 | 1236 | 1197 | 2866 | 8197 | 6211 | 4699 | — | 2313 | 1387 | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 103 | 276 | 102 | 149 | 86 | 103 | 445 | 160 | 102 | 93 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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