Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with 2,872 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 16s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 2s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 14s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's get into it. The only spot on the radar for a solid session is Last Chance, a point break that can handle a bit of swell. We've got a bit of a slow start, but there's a real standout window coming up.
Right now, the water temperature at Last Chance is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – a full degree down, so you'll want that extra rubber.
The first few days are pretty ordinary. Thursday afternoon has tiny 2ft glassy waves from the SE, but it's just not doing much. Friday and Saturday are a write-off with small, messy conditions. The energy is weak, barely registering.
Now, hold onto your boards. Sunday the 13th is the one to circle. The morning is looking excellent. We've got a solid 8ft swell from the south with a 15-second period – that's proper groundswell, full of energy. The combined energy is pumping at 2402 (moderate to strong). The wind is offshore from the WSW at 15 km/h, making for clean, lined-up waves at this point break. This is a standout for experienced surfers only; that size is too much for beginners. The long period will mean good shape and big gaps between sets, making it easier to get out the back.
Sunday afternoon sees the wind turn cross-shore, dropping the quality a bit. Monday and Tuesday morning look okay, but not special. Tuesday morning has a small 3ft glassy swell, but it's nothing to write home about.
After that, the second week trails off into a mix of very small surf and strong winds. There's a lot of side-offshore wind, but waves are mostly under 3ft. The energy is weak. Wednesday the 23rd morning has a small 4ft glassy swell from the NE, but again, it's minor.
So, the clear winner is Sunday morning, September 13th. Get on it, but leave the beginners at home.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | S 16 | S 19 | S 18 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 10 | S 11 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SSE 8 | S 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 57 | 75 | 114 | 234 | 216 | 195 | 755 | 2374 | 2342 | 1597 | 740 | 790 | 761 | 377 | 233 | 131 | 81 | 39 | 23 | 13 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | on | off | cross-off | cross | cross | off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:37PM1.75m | 5:08AM1.63m | 5:33PM1.75m | 6:03AM1.67m | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | 7:45AM1.75m | 8:04PM1.73m | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:59PM0.13m | 11:19AM0.11m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | 1:52PM0.24m | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — |
 | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — |
mm | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 12 |
Feels °C | 13 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 7 | S 7 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 10 | S 11 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SSE 8 | NNE 4 |
| kJ | 57 | 37 | 21 | 78 | 46 | 195 | 755 | 2374 | 2342 | 1597 | 740 | 790 | 761 | 377 | 233 | 131 | 81 | 39 | 23 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 16 | S 14 | S 18 | S 18 | ENE 8 | S 6 | ENE 8 | NE 12 | ENE 8 | E 8 | E 9 | NE 12 | E 9 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 |
| kJ | 12 | 75 | 57 | 234 | 216 | 14 | 38 | 13 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 43 | 41 | 36 | 30 | 13 | 13 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | NE 7 | S 19 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | ENE 13 | ENE 8 | E 6 | NE 12 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | SE 9 | NE 11 | NNE 5 | E 8 | NE 4 | ENE 12 | ENE 12 | S 9 |
| kJ | 5 | 9 | 114 | 36 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 6 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSE 2 | S 6 | — | SSW 7 | S 6 | — | NE 8 | — | SSW 14 | — | — | ENE 3 | NNE 4 | WNW 2 | ENE 2 | — | — | NNW 2 | SW 4 |
| kJ | — | 1 | 69 | — | 72 | 50 | — | 18 | — | 2350 | — | — | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 4 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 188 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 130 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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