Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, S swell with 2,178 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 10s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.1m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Tue 14th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Alright, let’s talk Last Chance in feet and Fahrenheit. This is a point break, pretty consistent, exposed to the swell. Water temp is about 56°, which is running a bit cooler than usual for summer.
The start of the week is slow. Monday morning has some small 3ft south swell with a light offshore breeze and the energy is moderate (265). It’s clean enough to get wet, but nothing flash.
Then the goods show up. From Friday morning the 17th through Sunday morning the 19th, it’s game on. Friday morning brings 5ft ESE groundswell with a 16-second period, glassy conditions, and wave energy surging (1249). Saturday morning stays clean with 5ft ESE swell, and then Sunday morning is the real prize: 5ft south swell at 18 seconds, with massive energy (1949). That’s long-period groundswell, so the point will hold it beautifully for long, clean rides.
Anything over 5ft is getting big for regular folks, but this break suits advanced surfers anyway.
The second week goes flat and ugly. From Tuesday the 21st, the wind turns on hard with rain and strong onshore winds. The swell drops and wave energy is weak. No real options there.
If you want the best of the bunch, hit Friday morning 17 July or Sunday morning 19 July. Clean, glassy, and packed with power.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | ESE 9 | S 13 | S 12 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 22 | S 18 | S 18 | S 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 144 | 96 | 123 | 72 | 49 | 34 | 62 | 55 | 37 | 161 | 315 | 952 | 1230 | 1429 | 1288 | 943 | 746 | 769 | 1294 | 1026 | 2033 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | glassy | on | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 4:14PM1.90m | 4:46AM1.78m | 5:14PM1.94m | 5:45AM1.79m | 6:14PM1.96m | 6:44AM1.79m | 7:11PM1.96m | 7:42AM1.78m | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | 8:58PM1.88m | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:00AM0.22m | 10:38PM0.19m | 11:01AM0.15m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:59AM0.08m | 00:36AM0.09m | 12:53PM0.04m | 1:34AM0.06m | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | S 13 | ESE 8 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | S 18 | S 18 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 121 | 88 | 123 | 38 | 49 | 34 | 62 | 55 | 37 | 161 | 315 | 952 | 1230 | 1429 | 1288 | 943 | 746 | 514 | 1294 | 1026 | 210 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 10 | ESE 8 | S 12 | S 12 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | ESE 13 | S 18 | E 14 | S 16 | S 5 | S 8 | S 15 | S 12 | S 11 | S 22 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 144 | 96 | 57 | 72 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 24 | 148 | 20 | 11 | 34 | 984 | 437 | 289 | 769 | 390 | 312 | 255 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 12 | E 12 | E 15 | E 13 | E 12 | S 9 | S 16 | S 16 | S 15 | S 17 | SSW 9 | S 16 | S 14 | — | — | S 24 | S 9 | S 23 | S 22 | — |
| kJ | — | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 24 | 9 | 19 | 37 | — | — | 11 | 142 | 265 | 84 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NE 4 | NNE 3 | NNE 6 | NNW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 3 | S 16 |
| kJ | — | — | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2033 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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