Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, S swell with 3,390 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 8ft (2.4m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, looking at Last Chance in feet and miles per hour.
The surf starts off tiny, so don’t rush. The real action builds into the first half of next week. The standout window is Sunday morning, September 13th, through Monday morning, September 14th. Water temp is 13°, a bit colder than normal, so layer up.
Sunday morning, September 13th, is the pick of the whole run. A solid south swell pushing 7ft at 15 seconds, with a 12 mph offshore wind from the WSW. That’s a ton of energy (2082) behind it, and with the wind blowing clean off the land, Last Chance will be firing. This is an advanced-only wave at that size, and crowds are possible, so get there early.
Monday morning, September 14th, is another clean session. Swell drops just a touch to 6ft from the SSE, still a healthy 12-second period. Wind is glassy – from the north at just 3 mph. The surface will be dead flat, perfect conditions. The energy is still solid (1041).
Saturday, September 19th, has a return of clean, chest-to-head-high swell. Both morning and afternoon show 4-4ft of south swell, 15-16 second periods, and only a 3 mph breeze off the land. The energy is strong (932 and 729), and it’s a reliable day for experienced surfers.
The second week gets messy. A huge, lumpy 12ft south pulse on Wednesday, September 23rd, with short 9-second period and strong cross-shore winds – that’s a big, ugly, walled-up mess. Thursday the 24th has 7-8ft of SSE swell with lighter winds, but it’s still lumpy and less consistent.
Best on offer: Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th. Saturday the 19th is a solid backup.
Rusty, out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat morning, calm by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 13 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 14 | S 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 7 | ESE 13 | S 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 17 | 755 | 3390 | 2061 | 1403 | 1104 | 1029 | 870 | 550 | 350 | 227 | 125 | 86 | 62 | 28 | 45 | 37 | 13 | 91 | 111 | 513 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 6:25PM1.75m | 6:56AM1.71m | 7:15PM1.74m | 7:45AM1.75m | 8:04PM1.73m | 8:30AM1.77m | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | 9:58AM1.72m | 10:25PM1.64m | 10:45AM1.66m | 11:11PM1.59m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:11PM0.13m | 00:45AM0.17m | 1:02PM0.18m | 1:33AM0.22m | 1:52PM0.24m | 2:19AM0.27m | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | 3:51AM0.39m | 4:19PM0.39m | 4:38AM0.42m | 5:05PM0.42m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | | |  |  | |  | |
 | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — |
 | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 6 |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | S 6 | S 15 | S 15 | ENE 12 | S 11 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | S 14 | S 12 | S 7 | S 6 | S 16 |
| kJ | 14 | 130 | 3390 | 2061 | 14 | 1104 | 1029 | 870 | 550 | 350 | 227 | 125 | 86 | 62 | 28 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 91 | 38 | 513 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 13 | S 16 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | E 8 | ENE 12 | E 9 | E 8 | E 10 | E 9 | S 16 | NE 5 | NE 4 | ENE 4 | S 13 | S 16 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 17 | 755 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 9 | 9 | 75 | 111 | 125 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 12 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NE 13 | NE 13 | S 15 | ENE 12 | S 13 | ENE 4 | ESE 10 | SSE 8 | ESE 11 | S 18 | S 17 | NE 12 |
| kJ | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 51 | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 5 | S 6 | — | — | S 14 | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — | — | NNE 4 |
| kJ | 134 | 176 | — | — | 1403 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | — | — | 10 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 88 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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