
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 23s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 22s period, S swell with 4,043 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 16s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.1m 22s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 23s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 22s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the waves coming our way.
Alright, we’ve got a solid run of swell lining up at Last Chance. This is a point break, so it handles a good south swell beautifully. The water’s sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than we’d expect for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties if you’re heading out.
It kicks off Friday morning the 17th with a clean 6ft swell from the ESE, a long 16-second period, and glassy conditions. The energy is pumping with a combined reading of 1529. This is proper groundswell, and with that offshore wind, it’s going to be clean and lined up. This is a standout session for experienced surfers – the size and power are serious.
Saturday the 18th keeps it going. The morning is glassy again with 5ft ESE swell at 14 seconds. The afternoon sees a shift to a cleaner 3ft S swell with a very long 24-second period, which is a proper groundswell. The energy is still strong (1966). That long period will make it wall up nicely at the point, but it’ll be a bit more selective.
Sunday the 19th is the pick of the weekend. The morning brings 6ft of S swell at 18 seconds with clean offshore wind. The combined energy hits 2715 – that’s some serious grunt. This is big, powerful, and clean. For experienced surfers only at this size.
Monday the 20th is a sneaky good one. Light rain, but the wind is completely glassy. The swell is a solid 6ft from the south at 15 seconds. The energy is still strong (1471). It’s going to be clean and consistent.
Tuesday the 21st is the biggest of the run. The morning shows 8ft S swell at 17 seconds with a massive energy reading of 3040. That’s a lot of ocean moving. The wind is light and clean. This is the best on offer for the whole period – a true standout for anyone who can handle heavy, powerful waves. The afternoon gets a bit cross-on, so get it in the morning.
After that, the size drops off. Wednesday the 22nd has a smaller 5ft SSE swell, still clean but losing its punch. Energy drops to 669. It’s still surfable, but nothing compared to the start of the week.
From Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the month, the swell really fades. We’re looking at tiny 1ft to 3ft waves with weak energy, mostly under 250. The wind is often cross-onshore or messy. The last few days of July and into August are a write-off for any decent surf. The good news is this area can get a new swell quickly, but for now, it’s a blank run of about a week.
Don’t forget the crowds at Last Chance can be an issue, but with this quality of swell, it’ll be worth the company.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Mon afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | S 24 | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 19 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1466 | 1376 | 1136 | 943 | 915 | 3786 | 2325 | 1702 | 1258 | 1310 | 1087 | 3777 | 2945 | 2181 | 1097 | 628 | 432 | 285 | 130 | 97 | 169 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | on | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | 8:58PM1.88m | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | ||||||||
7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | |
— | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 19 | S 17 | S 16 | S 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 10 |
1466 | 1376 | 1136 | 943 | 777 | 3786 | 2325 | 1702 | 1258 | 1310 | 1087 | 3777 | 2945 | 2181 | 1097 | 628 | 432 | 285 | 77 | 97 | 169 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 6 | S 10 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 5 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | ESE 10 |
21 | 279 | 290 | 359 | 274 | 586 | 390 | 373 | 258 | 161 | 156 | 98 | 95 | 70 | 58 | 37 | 22 | 27 | 130 | 95 | 10 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 19 | S 15 | S 28 | S 24 | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | — | — | — | — | E 15 | E 13 | ESE 11 | S 12 | SSW 12 | NNE 3 |
42 | 110 | 205 | 15 | 915 | — | — | — | — | — | 377 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 47 | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | WNW 3 | W 3 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










