Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get into what’s on offer at Last Chance, because the next couple of weeks have a real Jekyll and Hyde feel to them.

The window kicks off on Tuesday, 18th August, but I’d be sitting this one out. We’ve got a solid 13ft swell from the S, but the wind is howling out of the SW at 31 mph, making for some pretty grim conditions. It’s a big, raw ocean out there with combined wave energy of 2846 – a lot of juice – but it’s not surfable for us. The water is sitting at 54°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thickest rubber you’ve got.

Wednesday the 19th is the real standout, and the only one worth circling on the calendar. Early morning, we’ve got a powerful 15ft swell from the SSE with a solid 11-second period, driving combined energy up to 4741. The wind is S at 25 mph, cross-off, and the call is that wind and tide will line up. This is heavy, advanced territory – over 8ft is for experts only. If you’ve got the skills and the board for it, this is the moment.

Wednesday afternoon drops to 12ft from the S, but the wind is a bit lighter and the conditions are more marginal. Thursday the 20th sees the swell drop to 6ft, then 6ft, with a short 8-second period and moderate cross-off breezes. It’s on the small side and the quality just isn’t there.

Now, Friday the 21st morning is where it gets interesting again. The swell is down to 5ft from the S, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. This is pure groundswell. The wind is a glassy 3 mph from the NNW, absolutely dead. For an advanced spot like this, that long period will groom the lines beautifully, but be aware that such a long period can make beach breaks straighten out – at a point break like Last Chance, it should be a dream. The combined energy is 1503, still solid. This is the other high point in the window.

From Saturday the 22nd into the following week, it’s a slow slide. The swell drops right off, with Saturday morning seeing 3ft, and by Sunday the 23rd we’re down to 2ft and 1.0ft. The energy falls away into double digits (115 and 66), and it’s just a flat spell. There’s a gap of several days with very little to recommend.

Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th mornings offer a little pulse back up to 3ft, with the 25th showing a very long 16-second period from the S again and light NW winds. Combined energy at 523, and the call is for very good conditions. It’s a smaller window, but for a patient surfer on a log or a mid-length, it could be a clean, fun session.

The rest of the run into late August and early September is mostly poor. Winds pick up, the swell stays small and inconsistent. The 1st of September even sees a strong breeze hit 28 mph, but the swell is only 5ft. It’s a write-off. The 2nd of September afternoon shows a little promise with a 5ft S swell and a gentle breeze, but it’s a long way out and not a guarantee.

So, bottom line: the absolute best on offer is Wednesday morning, 19th August, for the big-swell crew on the 15ft SSE groundswell. The second-best is Friday morning, 21st August, for the clean, long-period 5ft waves. Don’t get your hopes up for the rest of it.

Rusty.

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