
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 7,433 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 11s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 11s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
We’ve got a solid run of surf ahead at Last Chance over the next week, but it’s not for everyone – this is advanced territory. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so a good 4/3 is going to be your best mate.
The first real standout hits on Sunday, August 2nd. Morning glass-off with a light offshore breeze from the west, and a clean 8ft swell coming from the SSE with a 12-second period. The combined energy is pumping at 1784 (moderate to strong energy). This is excellent surf for those with the skills. The afternoon holds up nicely too, dropping to 7ft, still clean, with a cross-off wind. This is the pick of the bunch early on.
Monday morning, August 3rd, is still very good – 5ft from the SSE, offshore wind from the WNW, and clean. By the afternoon, the wind swings onshore and it gets a bit scrappy, so aim for the early.
Things get serious on Tuesday, August 4th. A big 10ft groundswell rolls in from the S with a very long 15-second period. The energy is huge at 3834. But – and this is a big but – the wind is cranking at 25 mph from the SSW. For a point break like Last Chance, that long-period swell is going to be lining up nicely, but the strong breeze will make it challenging. This is only for experts. By the afternoon, the swell hits 13ft, and with the same strong wind, it’s messy and too big for most.
Wednesday, August 5th, is the biggest of the run. A 15ft swell from the S, period at 12 seconds, and the combined energy rockets to 5793 (strong to very strong). The wind is still strong cross-off. This is another one that’s strictly for the pros at an advanced spot. The afternoon drops to 12ft but the wind sticks around.
The rest of the first week, from Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 8th, sees the swell slowly backing off from 8ft down to 6ft. The real gem is Saturday, August 8th, morning. The wind goes glassy – a light NW breeze at 3 mph – and the swell is a clean 6ft from the SSE with a nice 13-second period (1124 energy). That is as good as it gets for a clean session with no wind chop. The crowd profile says “sometimes” here, so on a Saturday with conditions like that, expect some company.
Into the second week, it gets quieter. From Sunday, August 9th, we’ve got some inconsistency. The morning has a tiny 4ft but a massive 17-second period – very long period, which at a point break can be fantastic, but the wind is light cross-shore. Not a standout. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th offer small 4-5ft swells with offshore or light winds, but the energy starts to drop. From Wednesday the 12th onward, the size drops below 3ft and the wind goes onshore and strong. By the weekend of the 15th, it’s a write-off – lumpy, onshore, and tiny.
The very last chance to grab something is on Sunday, August 16th afternoon, when the wind goes glassy again, and the swell is 3ft from the SE (297 energy). Not big, but if you’re desperate for a clean small-wave session, it’s there.
Overall, the window is tight. The first week is serious swell, and you need experience. If you’ve got it, Saturday morning August 8th is the clear standout for quality and cleanliness. After that, it’s a slow fade into nothing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Wed morning, min 5°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 15 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1735 | 1104 | 787 | 575 | 345 | 503 | 3813 | 3330 | 7287 | 5793 | 3904 | 3213 | 1422 | 588 | 776 | 527 | 590 | 1305 | 1120 | 774 | 581 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | on | cross |
High Tide | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | ||||||||
7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | |
— | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
Feels °C | 5 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 8 | -2 | -4 | -4 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | ENE 12 | NE 12 | — | — | — | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
1735 | 1104 | 787 | 575 | 345 | 503 | 14 | 6 | — | — | — | 2355 | 1422 | 588 | 776 | 527 | 590 | 1305 | 1120 | 774 | 581 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 13 | S 18 | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | NE 18 | ESE 15 | S 11 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SSE 18 | SSE 10 | E 14 | NE 13 | SSE 15 |
10 | 85 | 8 | 37 | 84 | 58 | 7 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 22 | 457 | 70 | 156 | 540 | 402 | 4 | 7 | 21 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 16 | NE 15 | SE 12 | NE 13 | S 20 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 18 | E 17 | E 16 | SSE 19 | E 15 | E 15 | — | S 19 | E 13 |
39 | 8 | 25 | 7 | 69 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | 71 | 4 | 4 | — | 7 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WNW 3 | — | — | S 15 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3813 | 3330 | 7287 | 5793 | 3904 | 3213 | 1593 | 972 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 88 | 341 | 160 | 101 | 153 | 86 | 72 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











