
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period, S swell with 2,600 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.2m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 8s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Last Chance. This is a proper point break, exposed to the swell and it needs a solid NE direction to really light up. We’ve got a slow start, but the second half of this forecast window is where the magic is.
The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Tuesday the 21st is the only action early on, with a solid 7ft S swell arriving, but it’s got a 16-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. For a point break like this, that’s a dream setup. The morning has a clean cross-off breeze, and by the afternoon it turns glassy. The wave energy is strong (2298), so this is for experienced surfers only. It’s a standout, but it’s the only real game in town for the start.
We then hit a dry spell. From Wednesday morning the 22nd, the swell drops fast. Thursday and Friday are tiny, with poor conditions and onshore wind. Saturday the 25th is a complete no-go, with howling offshore winds but hardly any swell. Sunday the 26th is a total washout with rain and messy onshores. That’s a solid 5-day gap of nothing worth paddling out for.
But hold on. Monday the 27th is where it kicks back off. The swell jumps back up to 6ft from the ESE, with a 13-second period, under a clean offshore wind from the W. That’s a moderate offshore, clean and lined up. The energy is strong (2089). This is good, solid surf for the experienced crew.
The real standout of the whole period, though, is Tuesday the 28th. We’ve got a 10ft SSE swell, and while the period is a shorter 10 seconds, the wind is a moderate offshore from the WSW. The energy is very strong (3358). This is big, powerful, and clean. It’s too big for anyone but experts, and crowd-wise, it’s a spot that can get busy, so expect a few other chargers in the water. This is the best on offer.
The quality holds through Wednesday and Thursday the 29th and 30th as the swell eases back down to a more manageable 7ft to 5ft range, still with clean offshore or cross-off winds. Friday the 31st stays clean but the swell drops further.
Then we get a final little pulse on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning starts glassy with a 5ft S swell, and the afternoon goes glassy again with a 6ft S swell and a 14-second period. The wave energy is strong (1504). It’s clean and inviting, but it’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it – it’s promising but not locked in.
After that, Monday the 3rd of August throws a massive 16ft S swell at us, but with a 15-second period and cross-on wind, it’s just too big and onshore for this break. The energy is extreme (11584), but it’s a pass for a paddle board. The swell stays huge through Tuesday the 4th, and into Wednesday the 5th it’s still 12ft and messy. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a surfer’s paradise.
So, to wrap it up: the first true standout is the glassy Tuesday afternoon session on the 21st. The absolute best of the lot is the big, clean Tuesday the 28th. After that, the Sunday the 2nd of August glassy session is the long-range one to watch. Stay stoked.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Thu night, fresh winds from the WSW by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | NE 6 | ESE 13 | E 12 | ESE 16 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | SSE 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
4073 | 2203 | 1430 | 824 | 469 | 299 | 334 | 146 | 89 | 35 | 32 | 17 | 60 | 16 | 115 | 215 | 437 | 458 | 674 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | glassy | glassy | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | off | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | 3:22PM1.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | |||||||
— | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 12 | 21 |
Temp °C | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | SSE 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | NE 5 | SSE 10 | ENE 6 | SSE 9 | ENE 8 | E 12 | ESE 16 | S 8 | ESE 13 | ESE 14 |
4073 | 2203 | 1430 | 824 | 469 | 299 | 334 | 146 | 89 | 11 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 106 | 215 | 187 | 458 | 674 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 10 | NE 6 | SSE 9 | ESE 11 | NNE 4 | ESE 17 | E 11 | ESE 14 | S 15 | SSW 14 |
143 | 95 | 97 | 66 | 43 | 42 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 35 | 9 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 115 | 82 | 437 | 40 | 79 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | E 6 | SSE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | SE 14 | ESE 13 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | SSW 15 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 45 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 4 | NE 3 | — | — | N 3 | NE 6 | W 4 | WSW 4 | S 8 | — | S 8 | SSE 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4 | — | — | 2 | 60 | 17 | 15 | 545 | — | 196 | 640 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 71 | 35 | 72 | 78 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 102 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










