
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 26 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, S swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, SSE swell with 6,345 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 13s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 30) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, crew, Rusty here with a look at what’s on offer for our zone. The only real player in town is Last Chance. It’s a point break, advanced-level only, and we’ve got a big window of surf coming, but the start is a bit of a slow burn and the week ahead has some serious lumps in it.
First up, from Sunday the 26th, we have some small but clean waves rolling in. Swell is 4 ft from the ESE with a 14-second period (groundswell), and the water is sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—about 3° cooler. The combined energy is moderate at 1058. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, so it will be tidy, but the wave comment says it’s marginal. Monday looks similar, with a touch more size Monday afternoon hitting 8 ft, but that’s from the S with a short 9-second period and a strong cross-off wind of 35 km/h, making it a bit messy and bumpy. Not the best.
Tuesday the 28th is bigger again, with 8 ft SE swell and a longer 13-second period, but the wind is cross-off and the energy is climbing into strong territory (2882). Still, the quality is rated marginal, so it’s not a standout.
The first real window of quality appears on Wednesday the 29th morning. Swell drops to 7 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, and the wind goes nearly glassy—just 5 km/h from the north, almost cross-shore. The water is still clean and the energy is moderate (1208). This is our first proper look at clean conditions, but it’s only for the morning; the afternoon turns cross-onshore and choppy.
Thursday the 30th morning is a genuine bright spot. Swell is 5 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, wind is light cross-off from the NNW at 15 km/h, and conditions are described as “very good.” Energy is moderate (660). This is a solid session for advanced surfers looking for clean, lined-up waves at a point break.
Friday the 31st starts flat and poor with rain and a cross-chop, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. Swell is only 3 ft from the ESE at 11 seconds, but wind goes light cross-off and the wave comment says “good surf conditions.” A small but clean option for the end of the week.
Then we hit a bit of a lull. Saturday the 1st of August has tiny 2 ft swell with a very long 16-second period, but it’s just too small to do much. The combined energy is weak at 241. This gap of small, marginal surf lasts through to Sunday morning.
Now for the standout period. The real action kicks off Sunday the 2nd of August afternoon. The swell jumps to 17 ft from the S with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is massive—5149 (very strong wave energy). The wave comment says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break, and it is. This is expert-only, and even then, the wind is cross and lumpy. Monday the 3rd sees the same massive 17 ft swell, but with strong cross-winds of 45 km/h and poor conditions. The energy is approaching 6000. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Things start to clean up on Tuesday the 4th of August. Still a solid 15 ft from the SE at 13 seconds, but the wind goes cross-off from the SSW at 30 km/h, and the conditions are clean. Energy is enormous (6506). Again, it’s too big for most, but for a select few experts, this will be a session of a lifetime if they can handle it.
The true standout for skilled surfers comes on Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August. On the 5th, we have 10 ft from the ESE at 12 seconds, with light cross-off winds from the SW at 10 km/h. Conditions are described as “excellent for experienced surfers.” Energy is still strong at 2971. Thursday morning the 6th is also excellent, with 8 ft from the ESE and a light N wind at 10 km/h. This is the pick of the entire forecast—big, clean, lined-up point break waves for experts.
After that, the swell slowly backs off. Friday the 7th morning has a clean 6 ft with an offshore wind from the W at 5 km/h (very glassy), but the period is short at 10 seconds. A nice session for the experienced crew. The next weekend sees another pulse of 12 ft S swell on the 8th, but with lumpy cross-winds, and then it stays in the 10 ft range through to the 10th with cross-off winds but persistent rain.
Best on offer: Without a doubt, Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August at Last Chance. 10 ft to 8 ft of ESE groundswell, light offshore wind, clean, powerful, and perfect for advanced surfers. It’s going to be heavy. The Sunday the 2nd pulse is massive, but too big and messy for most. Stick to the mid-week.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 6°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Mon afternoon, calm by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | S 9 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 11 | E 11 | NE 7 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
547 | 515 | 692 | 941 | 816 | 2326 | 2005 | 1427 | 1189 | 1016 | 755 | 541 | 410 | 238 | 232 | 205 | 121 | 171 | 146 | 2084 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:22PM1.58m | 3:37AM1.48m | 4:08PM1.56m | 4:23AM1.45m | 4:53PM1.55m | 5:09AM1.43m | 5:37PM1.55m | 5:56AM1.42m | 6:22PM1.55m | 6:43AM1.44m | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:37PM0.50m | 9:53AM0.48m | 10:23PM0.49m | 10:40AM0.45m | 11:08PM0.46m | 11:24AM0.41m | 11:53PM0.41m | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | |||||||
— | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | |
5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 12 | NE 8 | E 11 | ESE 16 | E 11 | ENE 10 |
547 | 515 | 692 | 799 | 816 | 2326 | 2005 | 1427 | 1189 | 1016 | 755 | 541 | 410 | 238 | 232 | 156 | 121 | 171 | 85 | 34 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 14 | S 12 | — | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | S 13 | ESE 11 | NE 6 | E 11 | ESE 15 | NE 16 |
17 | 15 | 12 | — | 14 | 25 | 39 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 99 | 119 | 66 | 58 | 31 | 205 | 20 | 59 | 146 | 10 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | — | S 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 16 | SSW 10 | — | S 18 | NE 12 | SE 16 | SE 15 | SE 14 | NE 7 | S 11 | E 10 |
55 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 20 | — | 25 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 51 | 11 | 21 | 19 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SSE 8 | S 8 | S 9 | SSE 8 | S 8 | S 8 | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | N 3 | NE 4 | NE 7 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | — | S 12 |
439 | 373 | 391 | 941 | 715 | 531 | 249 | — | — | — | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 228 | 2 | 6 | 5 | — | 2084 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 199 | 9 | 31 | 103 | 88 | 88 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










