Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Last Chance. It’s a point break, for the advanced crew, exposed to the swell and it’s best when it’s coming from the NE. You’re gonna have to be patient for the good stuff.

The water’s sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit.

First up, Thursday the 9th of July. There’s a big slug of energy coming in with 15ft of SSE swell, but it’s got a 28 mph southerly crosswind on it. The combined energy is a massive 4887, but with that wind, it’s gonna be a total mess. Friday morning is the same story. Not worth it.

Friday afternoon gets a little better. The swell drops to 10ft from the ESE, and the wind switches to a cross-off from the SSW at 22 mph. The energy is still strong at 2034. It’s clean, but it’s only a marginal call.

Saturday the 11th is a step up. Morning sees 8ft from the SE with a 12 mph cross-off, and the energy is 1988. It’s still a bit lumpy, but the afternoon drops to 7ft with the same wind. Rideable, but nothing to write home about.

Sunday morning on the 12th is where the clean-up starts. 5ft from the SE, a gentle 9 mph cross-off, and the energy drops to 678. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the kind of talk I like. The afternoon is even cleaner with a light breeze, but the swell drops to 5ft. Still, a good day for a log.

From Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th, the swell tanks. We’re talking 2ft to 3ft. There’s a glassy morning on the 15th, but with only 86 energy, it’s barely a ripple. Flat spell.

Now, the real standout is Friday the 17th of July. A big pulse of swell arrives from the ESE, 7ft, but with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and for a point break, that’s a dream. The combined energy is 2215, but the wind is a near gale from the SW at 31 mph. It’s clean, but that wind is gonna make it gnarly. By the afternoon, the wind drops to 25 mph, still strong, but the swell holds at 7ft. This is for experts only.

Saturday the 18th is more manageable. 6ft from the ESE, a 19 mph cross-off, and the energy is 1044. It’s clean, and the afternoon drops to a moderate breeze. Solid surfable day.

Then we get to the best of the run. Sunday the 19th of July. Morning is glassy, with a 5ft ESE swell and a 12-second period. The energy is 668, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The afternoon is the same deal, glassy with 4ft. This is the one. Clean, fun, and the crowd will be a factor because it’s a spot that’s sometimes busy. Get there early.

Monday the 20th morning throws a curveball. 12ft from the NE with a 10-second period, and a light cross-shore. The energy is huge at 4118, but it’s marginal. That’s a big wave for a point, and it’ll be breaking straight. Beginners, stay on the beach.

Tuesday the 21st of July is another highlight. The wind goes offshore from the west, with a 4ft south swell and a 17-second period. That’s groundswell perfection for a point. The energy is 1456, and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The afternoon is glassy, same swell. This is a session for the shortboarders.

Wednesday the 22nd is still fun, with a glassy 7ft from the south, but the period drops to 7 seconds. It’s a bit of a mushy crumble. After that, Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are a washout with strong onshore winds.

So, to wrap it up: the standout days are Sunday the 19th for a clean, fun glassy session, and Tuesday the 21st for a proper, powerful groundswell. Keep an eye on the wind for Friday the 17th, but it’s one for the strong paddlers only.

Rusty.

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