Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, the first thing to say is that the first few days are pretty ordinary. We’ve got a bit of a lull to start, especially through the first weekend and into early next week. Don’t get your hopes up too high for the early sessions. The real action is a week and a half away.

We’re looking at Last Chance as the only spot on the menu. This is a proper advanced point break, fairly consistent, and it loves a good NE swell. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Let’s break it down. Sunday the 6th is a write-off: tiny 2ft S swell, super long period, but the energy is weak (109) and the conditions are just meh. Monday and Tuesday aren’t much better. There’s a pulse of 6ft on Tuesday morning the 8th, but it’s a short period SE swell (8 seconds) with cross-shore wind. The energy is moderate (449), but the quality is marginal. Not worth the paddle.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are still pretty small and weak. The wind is light and clean on Thursday, but the swell is only 2ft and the energy is weak (81). You could get a longboard out, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Friday the 11th sees a bump in size with a 7ft S swell, but the period is a disappointing 6 seconds. The wind is cross-off, but that short period kills it. The energy is moderate (399), but the quality is poor. Saturday the 12th is messy with rain showers and strong wind.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is Monday the 14th of September. This is the one you’ve been waiting for. We’ve got a 12ft swell from the S, with a period of 13 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, and at 13 seconds, it’s got some serious push. The energy is massive (3812), and the wind is light offshore from the west in the morning, going glassy in the afternoon. This is going to be a clean, powerful, expert-only session at this point break. The sets will be long and lined up, but remember, a long period groundswell on a point break like this is a dream scenario. It’s going to be a big day, so only the experienced crew should be out there.

The next few days after that are still good, but not as perfect. Tuesday the 15th is still solid with a 6ft SSE swell, but the wind turns cross-on in the afternoon, killing the quality. Wednesday the 16th is a good, clean smaller day with 4ft and light winds. Thursday the 17th gets a bit wild with strong offshore winds and a 4ft long period S swell, but the wind is howling at 22 mph in the morning, making it a bit of a battle.

Then, Saturday the 19th of September is another absolute standout. A 13ft swell from the S, with a 10-second period, and light cross-off winds. The energy is huge (3539), and it’s clean. This is another massive swell for experts only. The point will be handling it, but it’s going to be a heavy, powerful wave. Sunday the 20th is a drop in size, back to 6ft, but clean in the morning.

So, to keep it simple: the two true standouts, the ones you need to circle on the calendar, are Monday the 14th and Saturday the 19th. Both are big, powerful, clean S swells, perfect for advanced crew at Last Chance. The first week is a bit of a bust, so don’t stress the early days. It’s a waiting game, but the payoff is going to be worth it.

Rusty.

Read more