Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with 6,046 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 8s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's talk about Last Chance. This is a point break that's fairly consistent, but the next few days are a total washout.
From Wednesday the 12th through Friday the 14th, it's all bad news. Onshore and cross-shore winds, weak to moderate swell energy (between 245 and 449 on the energy scale), and poor, choppy surf. Keep the board in the truck.
The first real chance comes on Saturday the 15th. The morning goes glassy—no wind at all—with a 6-foot swell from the east, a 8-second period. The energy is moderate (419). The period is short, so it'll have less punch, and the swell direction is east compared to the optimum northeast, but it's clean and the best we've seen.
Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are a mess. The swell gets big, 8 feet to 12 feet, but the wind is a near gale or fresh breeze, making it raw and messy. The energy is strong (1010 to 1294). This looks more like a kiteboarding session than a surf session.
Tuesday the 18th is a bit cleaner with cross-off winds and 5-foot to 6-foot swells, but it's still marginal. The energy is moderate (706 to 746).
Now, Wednesday the 19th is a monster. A 16-foot swell from the south-southeast, with a very long 15-second period. The energy is insane (11314). This is a huge groundswell, but it's way too big for this break—only for experts. The wind is clean, but the swell direction is south-southeast, not the preferred northeast.
The rest of the week from the 20th sees the swell drop to 10 feet down to 4 feet, with clean cross-off winds. The energy is moderate to strong (1061 to 3542). Conditions are marginal to good, but nothing stands out until the end.
The real gold is the final weekend. Saturday the 22nd has clean 6-foot swell from the south-southeast (1146 energy), but a bit of onshore wind. Then Sunday the 23rd morning is a dream: glassy, calm, with a 6-foot swell from the south-southeast (728 energy). That's the best session on offer. Monday the 24th afternoon is also a winner, with a 5-foot swell from the south-southeast, a 12-second period (702 energy), and clean winds.
The water temperature is about average for the time of year.
The standout is the glassy Sunday the 23rd morning with a clean 6-foot south-southeast swell. The 19th is a big-wave day for experts only. Everything else is marginal or blown out.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 64mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sun afternoon). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, near gales from the SW by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | SE 8 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | S 7 | S 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | S 8 | SE 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 227 | 182 | 543 | 369 | 203 | 149 | 133 | 361 | 127 | 276 | 382 | 382 | 408 | 695 | 1797 | 1236 | 939 | 1192 | 396 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:28AM1.70m | 4:56PM1.86m | 5:26AM1.71m | 5:54PM1.87m | 6:24AM1.72m | 6:49PM1.87m | 7:19AM1.73m | 7:41PM1.84m | 8:11AM1.75m | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:20PM0.15m | 10:43AM0.10m | 11:18PM0.11m | 11:39AM0.06m | 00:16AM0.09m | 12:32PM0.05m | 1:11AM0.09m | 1:24PM0.08m | 2:02AM0.11m | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  | |  |  |  | | | |  | | |  | | | | |
 | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | 2 | 15 | 7 | 4 | — | 8 | 16 | 8 | 17 | 9 | — | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 0 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | SE 8 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | SE 9 |
| kJ | 227 | 182 | 543 | 369 | 203 | 149 | 80 | 50 | 101 | 276 | 382 | 382 | 408 | 212 | 204 | 117 | 143 | 82 | 396 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 7 | SSE 12 | NE 10 | NE 10 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | E 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | S 18 | S 17 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | S 15 |
| kJ | 2 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 28 | 18 | 25 | 95 | 87 | 56 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 275 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 11 | SE 14 | S 16 | S 16 | NE 10 | S 18 | E 15 | S 16 | SSE 9 | S 15 | S 16 | S 14 | SSW 17 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | SE 15 | NE 8 | — | E 10 |
| kJ | 4 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 4 | 119 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 18 | — | 98 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 6 | ENE 4 | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | — | — | — | — | S 7 | S 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | S 8 | S 8 |
| kJ | — | 2 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 133 | 361 | 127 | — | — | — | — | 695 | 1797 | 1236 | 939 | 1192 | 386 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 137 | 137 | 149 | 102 | 102 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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