Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple weeks.

We’ve got a 16-day window, but it’s not all good news straight away. Things look pretty average early on, with a solid kick of energy showing up later for the experienced crew.

The first few days are more about watching and waiting. Wednesday and Thursday mornings are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a 7ft ESE swell on Wednesday morning, but a strong cross-offshore wind has it all messed up. The energy is moderate, about 831. The water is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good suit. On Thursday, it really goes off the rails. That swell jumps to 10ft from the S, then 13ft SE, with strong cross winds and rain. The wave energy is massive (1685 on Thursday morning, 3673 Thursday arvo), but the quality is absolutely shocking. That setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Friday is another write-off with heavy rain and strong winds, despite a 13ft SE swell (3924 energy). It just won’t be any fun. Saturday and Sunday finally start to settle. Saturday morning has a cleaner 7ft ESE swell with lighter cross-off winds, energy dropping to 1089. It’s still just marginal, though. Sunday morning is the first real glimmer of hope – a clean 5ft ESE swell with glassy 5 km/h winds from the WSW. That’s the best it gets for a while, but the energy is still low at 762. It won’t be pumping, just rideable.

Then we hit a big quiet patch. From Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 15th, the swell just fades away. It drops to 4ft and lower, with very weak energy (as low as 117). The waves are tiny and ordinary. There’s not much to get excited about.

The real standout comes next. Mark your calendars for Thursday the 16th of July. This is the one. Last Chance is going to fire for the big-wave hunters. We’re looking at a solid 7ft ESE groundswell with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper energy – 2072 – and it’s going to have serious punch. The wind is glassy, and conditions look excellent for experienced surfers. Because it’s such a long period, this deep-water point will handle it beautifully. It’s an advanced wave and fairly consistent, but there might be crowds here for this one. Light winds from the east on the arvo will keep it a touch onshore, so get it in the morning.

Another one to watch: Friday the 17th of July. We’ve got a 6ft ESE groundswell with a 13-second period, and the wind is offshore – a clean 5 km/h from the WSW. Energy is 1134. This will be a cleaner, slightly smaller version of the day before. The period is still long, so it will be well-shaped and powerful. The morning session is your window before a light cross-onshore breeze kicks in later.

After that, the weekend of the 19th and 20th gets messy again with strong onshore winds and big, lumpy 10ft+ swell. Those days are best left for the hardcore crew or a kite.

So to sum it up: if you’re a beginner, the whole 16 days is a write-off. For everyone else, the window is short and sharp. The standout is the morning of Thursday the 16th of July – that’s your best shot. Followed closely by Friday the 17th morning.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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