Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 12 Oct 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 16 Oct, 7PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 17 Oct, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, SSE swell with 4,483 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 15 Oct, 7PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 7s period with NE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Oct 15) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Oct 17) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Friday (Oct 16) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Thu 15th Oct) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Fri 16th Oct) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sat 17th Oct) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Warm (max 24°C on Wed afternoon, min 14°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Thu afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu night, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Thu night, strong winds from the SSW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 13 | Wednesday 14 | Thursday 15 | Friday 16 | Saturday 17 | Sunday 18 | Monday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | S 16 | ENE 9 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | NE 6 | NNE 4 | NE 6 | S 8 | S 8 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 14 | S 13 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 17 | 20 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 34 | 20 | 19 | 35 | 1415 | 4483 | 3093 | 2132 | 1402 | 637 | 1368 | 1016 | 1508 | 1380 | 674 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | off |
High Tide | 8:17AM1.75m | 8:37PM1.67m | 9:01AM1.76m | 9:23PM1.66m | 9:44AM1.75m | 10:09PM1.64m | 10:26AM1.70m | 10:53PM1.59m | 11:10AM1.64m | 11:36PM1.53m | 11:56AM1.57m | 00:19AM1.46m | 12:44PM1.51m | 1:03AM1.39m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:29PM0.34m | 2:49AM0.39m | 3:16PM0.38m | 3:33AM0.42m | 4:02PM0.41m | 4:17AM0.45m | 4:47PM0.42m | 5:01AM0.46m | 5:33PM0.43m | 5:45AM0.46m | 6:18PM0.43m | 6:29AM0.46m | 7:04PM0.42m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  |  |  | |  | |  | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — |
 | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:23 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:25 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:29 | — | — | 7:30 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 22 | 23 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 20 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 24 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 9 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | NE 7 | NE 6 | S 8 | ENE 8 | — | S 16 | S 14 | NE 12 | ESE 8 | SE 8 | S 13 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 |
| kJ | 17 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 35 | 7 | — | 21 | 106 | 5 | 169 | 158 | 1016 | 1508 | 1380 | 674 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 5 | S 16 | ENE 9 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | ENE 7 | ENE 10 | S 14 | S 10 | NE 6 | NE 14 | — | — | NE 12 | NE 12 | S 14 | NE 11 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 |
| kJ | 3 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 6 | 8 | — | — | 6 | 5 | 150 | 5 | 76 | 48 | 29 | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SE 9 | ENE 4 | S 16 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | — | NE 10 | S 14 | N 4 | — | — | — | — | — | S 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 9 | — | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 9 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | NE 4 | NNW 3 | — | — | NNE 3 | NE 6 | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | WSW 4 | S 8 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 14 | — | — | — | N 2 |
| kJ | 1 | 11 | 3 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 1415 | 4483 | 3093 | 2132 | 1402 | 637 | 1368 | — | — | — | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 86 | 182 | 71 | 188 | 180 | 1 | 86 | 180 | 102 | 71 | 122 | 130 | 149 | 102 | 103 | 86 | 88 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Last Chance surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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