Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 22s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 21s period, S swell with 3,467 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 15s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.0m 21s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Friday (Jul 17) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 22s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 21s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright mate, let’s talk about the only game in town: Last Chance. It’s a point break built for the advanced crew – fairly consistent but crowds can pop up now and then. Water temp’s nothing unusual for July.
We kick off Thursday 16 July with small but clean waves. Morning sees a 2.3ft east swell at 15 seconds – weak energy (243) – with a light offshore breeze. Afternoon’s similar but a touch smaller. Not a standout, just a warm-up.
Friday 17 July morning is a proper standout. Glassy conditions, 5.6ft ESE swell at 16 seconds – energy rockets to 1507 – strong. No wind at all, so the point’s gonna be buttery. Too big for beginners, so leave it to the advanced crew. Afternoon gets crossed, so get out early.
Saturday 18 July still holds size – 4.9ft ESE at 14 seconds – with a light cross-off in the morning keeping it clean. Afternoon goes glassy again with 4.6ft. Solid.
Sunday 19 July morning is the absolute best of the whole run. Swell hits 5.9ft from the south with a very long 18-second period – groundswell with serious grunt (energy 2501). Light offshore wind from the west – perfect for a point. Dawn patrol all the way. Afternoon turns a bit cross.
Monday 20 July morning stays glassy with 5.2ft south swell at 15 seconds (energy 1353). Clean calm wind again. A great way to start the week. Afternoon goes onshore.
Tuesday 21 July
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wed 22 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 37 | 215 | 235 | 976 | 1447 | 1376 | 1121 | 943 | 735 | 3467 | 2111 | 1682 | 1092 | 1147 | 1102 | 2038 | 1526 | 1241 | 1821 | 938 | 564 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | cross | off | glassy | on | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 6:44AM1.79m | 7:11PM1.96m | 7:42AM1.78m | 8:06PM1.93m | 8:36AM1.77m | 8:58PM1.88m | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 00:36AM0.09m | 12:53PM0.04m | 1:34AM0.06m | 1:47PM0.03m | 2:28AM0.06m | 2:42PM0.06m | 3:21AM0.09m | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | | | | | | | |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | |
 | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — |
 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | E 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | S 21 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 |
| kJ | 37 | 215 | 235 | 976 | 1447 | 1376 | 1121 | 943 | 735 | 3467 | 2111 | 1682 | 1092 | 1147 | 1102 | 2038 | 1526 | 1241 | 1821 | 938 | 564 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | S 17 | E 14 | S 16 | S 5 | S 9 | S 15 | S 12 | S 11 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 5 | E 5 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | 35 | 24 | 144 | 20 | 18 | 96 | 823 | 344 | 256 | 586 | 390 | 373 | 258 | 206 | 199 | 133 | 95 | 69 | 28 | 7 | 22 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 14 | S 17 | SW 10 | S 15 | S 18 | SSW 15 | S 19 | S 24 | S 10 | — | — | S 21 | — | — | NE 4 | — | — | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ENE 4 |
| kJ | 20 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 42 | 99 | 381 | 29 | 400 | 208 | — | — | 133 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 46 | 37 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 3 | W 3 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 1 | 3 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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