Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, S swell with 8,233 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 14s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab your board and let’s talk about the next stretch. Last Chance is the only spot on the map for this whole run, so we’re putting all our eggs in one basket. It’s a pretty exposed point, so it’ll see most of what’s out there, but it needs the right wind to really shine.
The forecast opens up with a bit of hope for Sunday the 16th, but honestly, it’s a tease. We’ve got a clean 5ft east swell pushing in, but that cross-off wind is fresh and the energy is only moderate at 527. It’s surfable, but it’s not going to be pretty. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—about 3° off the mark—so maybe grab the hood if you’re sensitive.
Then things go sideways for a few days. Monday the 17th brings a jump in size, but it’s a mess. The swell jumps up to 12ft on the morning with a strong cross-shore wind and that energy is cranking at 2846. It’s powerful, but it’s all over the place. Then it gets even bigger on Tuesday afternoon, hitting 13ft, and Wednesday morning cracks 16ft with a 12-second period. That’s a serious amount of water – energy readings are through the roof, over 7000 – but with those strong onshore/cross winds it’s just going to be a washing machine out there. This is proper expert-only territory, and even then, it’s more of a survival mission than a fun session. The combined energy is strong, but the quality is zero.
We get a bit of a breather on Thursday the 20th. The swell drops to around 7ft, but it’s still a bit lumpy with a moderate breeze. Still not the one.
Then, finally, Friday morning the 21st is where it all clicks. The wind goes glassy—a slight air from the NNW—and the swell settles into a clean 4ft with a 10-second period. Energy is still moderate at 585, but it’s clean. The surf report says to expect very good conditions. This is the standout of the whole period, the one you don’t want to miss. Last Chance will be working like a proper point, with those lined-up walls.
Saturday the 22nd is still good, but a notch down. Glassy conditions again with a 4ft south swell at a longer 13 seconds. The energy is a bit weaker, but it’ll still be clean and fun. Good chance for a longboard.
After that, it fades. Sunday the 23rd is small and ordinary, with waves dropping to under 3ft. Then we hit a proper flat spell. Monday the 24th is basically nothing, with just a knee-high dribble. The first week of the outlook ends on a whimper, not a bang.
The second week is lean. There’s a brief pulse around the 29th with a clean 6ft south swell, but the period is short at 7 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly. Could be fun for a grovel, but nothing special. The rest of that week is either small, wind-affected, or both. The bigger swells stay away, and the energy levels are mostly weak.
So, bottom line: you’ve got one real standout, and that’s Friday morning, the 21st. If you can get out there for that, you’ll be smiling. The rest of the window is either too big, too messy, or too flat. There are a few other windows like Saturday the 22nd that are okay, but Friday is the call. For a spot this exposed, when it’s glassy and lined up, it’s a special place to be. Just keep an eye on the long-range stuff—it’s promising but not certain.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 35mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sun morning, near gales from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 9 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SE 8 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 9 | S 10 | SSE 16 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
313 | 297 | 2573 | 2546 | 1922 | 1286 | 411 | 3077 | 8233 | 7077 | 5412 | 3944 | 1654 | 1189 | 290 | 374 | 448 | 813 | 398 | 285 | 224 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | 11:22AM1.67m | 11:48PM1.62m | 12:14PM1.62m | 00:35AM1.57m | 1:06PM1.58m | 1:22AM1.51m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | 5:15AM0.36m | 5:41PM0.40m | 6:03AM0.41m | 6:30PM0.44m | 6:49AM0.45m | 7:20PM0.47m | ||||||||
6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | |
— | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — | |
mm | 1 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -3 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 9 | ESE 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 8 | E 18 | — | SE 14 | SE 14 | ESE 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 9 | S 10 | S 11 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 |
313 | 297 | 417 | 300 | 230 | 130 | 411 | 6 | — | 46 | 47 | 354 | 1654 | 1189 | 290 | 374 | 275 | 813 | 398 | 285 | 224 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | NE 8 | SE 15 | SSW 16 | E 10 | S 14 | S 14 | — | — | — | — | SE 9 | SE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | SSE 16 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 13 |
214 | 70 | 9 | 306 | 162 | 148 | 92 | — | — | — | — | 437 | 309 | 199 | 103 | 69 | 448 | 82 | 36 | 15 | 34 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | ESE 15 | — | — | E 10 | E 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 13 | S 17 | S 17 | ESE 9 | N 3 | SE 10 | E 10 | NNE 3 |
344 | 229 | 22 | — | — | 89 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 23 | 142 | 43 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 5 | SSW 6 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSW 9 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSW 13 | — | — | NNW 2 | — | NW 3 | W 4 | — | NNE 3 |
80 | 238 | 2573 | 2546 | 1922 | 1286 | 708 | 3077 | 8233 | 7077 | 5412 | 3944 | 2809 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 103 | 103 | 149 | 102 | 153 | 86 | 149 | 160 | 160 | 153 | 101 | 88 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











