Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid window coming up, but the first real standout is right on the doorstep. The ocean is waking up with a decent pulse of long-period groundswell, and the conditions are looking prime for the experienced crew.

Tuesday, July 21st is the go. Early morning at Last Chance is the pick of the bunch. We’re looking at a 7ft swell out of the south, with a very long 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent rubber. The wind is light out of the southwest, making for a clean, cross-off breeze. The combined swell energy is cranking hard at 2298, so there’s plenty of grunt. This is a point break, so that long period will wrap in nicely, offering up some real shape. It’s advanced territory at this size, and it’s fairly consistent, but keep in mind conditions can get a bit uncertain as the tide moves. The swell direction is south, which is a solid match for the break’s optimum from the northeast. The wind will be light and cross-off, keeping the face glassy. Absolutely the best session on offer.

Wednesday morning, July 22nd also looks tasty. The swell drops to 4ft from the south-southeast, but the period is still a long 12 seconds. The wind goes glassy – dead calm – which is a major positive. The combined energy is moderate at 512. The waves will be clean and well-shaped, a great session for anyone who can handle a point break.

We hit a dry spell from Wednesday afternoon through to Friday, with the swell bottoming out to flat and choppy conditions. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday, July 25th shows a bit of life with an offshore wind from the west-northwest and a 3ft swell from the east-northeast, but the energy is low at 255. It’s a pickable option, but not a standout.

Sunday, July 26th has a pulse of short-period swell. The afternoon session sees a 6ft swell from the south-southeast, but with a short 8-second period, it’ll be a bit lumpy. The wind goes offshore from the west though, so it’ll be clean. The energy is moderate at 858. Worth a look if you’re desperate.

Monday, July 27th is a write-off. Strong winds will trash the surface, making it choppy and messy.

Tuesday, July 28th sees the swell building again, but strong cross-off winds will keep the quality low. Not recommended.

Now, the next big standout is looking like Wednesday, July 29th. The morning session is a beauty. The swell is 6ft from the east-southeast, with a long 13-second period. The wind is glassy again – dead calm. The combined energy is strong at 1244. This is another prime session for experienced surfers at Last Chance. The waves will be clean, powerful, and well-shaped. This is the second true standout.

Thursday, July 30th continues the run with a 6ft east-southeast swell and a 12-second period. The wind is light offshore from the west-northwest, keeping the waves clean and orderly. The energy is moderate at 798. A very solid option.

The surf then tapers off into the first week of August, with smaller, weaker swells and increasing winds. Sunday, August 3rd is a monster, but it’s a problem. The swell is 15ft from the south-southeast, with a short 11-second period. The combined energy is huge at 4911. This is way too big for anyone but the most elite experts, and even then, it’s likely to be a close-out. The break is described as a point, but at that size and short period, it’s going to be a washing machine. Not a recommended session.

The outlook then fades into poor conditions with strong winds and heavy rain mid-week, before a final clean-up on Wednesday, August 5th afternoon. That afternoon brings a 5ft south swell with a very long 16-second period, and a cross-off wind from the north-northwest. The energy is still strong at 1891. It’s a promising late call, but we’re a long way out, so treat it as a hopeful possibility.

Overall, the two clear standouts are Tuesday morning July 21st and Wednesday morning July 29th. Both offer strong, clean, long-period groundswell with glassy or offshore winds. Get on it.

Rusty.

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