Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with 7,865 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 13s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s break it down.
We’ve only got one spot to talk about for the next 16 days – Last Chance. It’s a point break, open to the swell, and it breaks fairly regularly. The water temp is 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thicker wetsuit.
The first real window comes on Sunday, August 2nd. An offshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph is going to make an 8 ft SSE groundswell (12-second period) look clean. The combined energy is strong at 1784. This is the best session of the whole forecast – glassy, powerful, and proper. It’s expert territory at that size.
Monday the 3rd is still decent with a 5 ft SSE swell and offshore winds again in the morning, but the energy is down to 595. Still clean, just not as much juice.
Tuesday the 4th gets wild – a 15 ft S swell (13 seconds) in the afternoon, but the wind is howling at 28 mph cross-off. Energy is extreme at 7358, and it’s just too big for this spot. That’s for the hardcore only.
The next good window is Thursday morning, August 6th. A 7 ft SSE swell, 11-second period, light offshore wind from the WSW at 9 mph. Energy is 1189, and it’s clean. Another solid session for experienced surfers.
Friday the 7th morning is a glassy dream – no wind, 4 ft SE swell. Energy is 518. It’s small, but if you want perfectly smooth waves, that’s your time.
From Saturday the 8th through Monday the 10th, the wind turns onshore or cross-off, and the swell drops. It’s a bit of a dead zone.
Then on Tuesday the 11th, we get a brief window with a 8 ft E swell (7-second period) and glassy conditions in the morning. Short period, so it’ll be a bit weak and bumpy, but still rideable. Energy is 678.
After that, from Wednesday the 12th through to the end, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-off, and the swell is all over the place. A few mornings like Thursday the 14th (8 ft ESE, 10 seconds, glassy) and Sunday the 16th (8 ft S, 8 seconds, cross-shore) are worth a look if you’re keen, but nothing’s clean and consistent.
The standout is Sunday morning, August 2nd. Get out there while it’s firing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, fresh winds from the SW by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Tue night. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, calm by Fri morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1507 | 2862 | 1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 345 | 439 | 1633 | 7352 | 6402 | 5256 | 2597 | 1674 | 1126 | 943 | 541 | 309 | 2040 | 2675 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | off |
High Tide | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |  |  | |
 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — |
 | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Feels °C | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | -2 | -4 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 16 | E 10 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 |
| kJ | 119 | 8 | 1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 345 | 439 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3543 | 2597 | 1674 | 1126 | 943 | 541 | 309 | 2040 | 2675 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | NE 16 | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 12 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | NE 11 | ESE 16 | SE 15 | E 17 | SE 13 | S 10 | SSE 10 | NE 14 |
| kJ | 36 | 10 | 10 | 85 | 8 | 37 | 80 | 58 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 26 | 57 | 6 | 88 | 96 | 339 | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 17 | NE 16 | NE 16 | NE 15 | SE 12 | NE 13 | S 20 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | SE 18 | NE 11 | E 18 | NE 10 | E 16 | SSE 18 | SE 13 | NE 14 |
| kJ | 12 | 40 | 39 | 8 | 25 | 7 | 69 | 6 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 113 | 40 | 8 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SSE 13 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | S 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1507 | 2862 | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | 1633 | 7352 | 6402 | 5256 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 103 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 88 | 318 | 160 | 102 | 120 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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