Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 25 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.0°C
1.7° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 31 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, S swell with 3,981 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 12s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 8s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 27) at 6AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Tue 25th Aug)3.5ft (1.1m) 12s
Best Surf 9PM (Mon 31st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s
Most Powerful 9PM (Mon 31st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here, dialed in and ready to give you the straight-up for Last Chance. Let’s get into it.

The window opens on Tuesday, August 25th, and we’ve got some real promise early on, especially for the advanced crew. The water’s sitting at 54°, about 3° colder than usual for this time of year, so that wetsuit is staying zipped.

Tuesday morning is a beauty. Glassy conditions with a light NNW breeze, and a clean 4ft south swell running at 12 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (404), and it’s setting up nicely. This is a solid start.

Wednesday, August 26th morning, ups the ante. Swell drops a fraction to 3ft, but the period stretches way out to 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is stronger (637). And with that glassy NNW wind again, this is the pick of the early run. So clean.

By Thursday the 27th, things get a bit messy. Swell bumps up to 4ft and the period is still long at 17 seconds, giving us strong wave energy (1122). But a 9 mph SSE crosswind starts to put a bit of a chop on it.

Friday the 28th afternoon is the real standout from this first week. The swell settles to a very clean 4ft from the SSE with a 13-second period (562 energy), and we get a lovely cross-offshore NNW breeze. The surface will be clean. That’s the session to aim for.

After that, the weekend from the 29th drops right off. Swell fades, wind gets messy. We’ve got a few days of small, ordinary waves through Sunday. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday, August 31st morning, the swell returns. 4ft from the south at 16 seconds, with a clean cross-offshore breeze. Strong energy again (881). Conditions are very good.

Then the second week brings some serious size. Into Tuesday, September 1st, we’ve got 8ft south swell, and by the afternoon it’s hitting 10ft. That’s expert territory. The energy is very strong (4183). The wind is a bit onshore, so it’ll be a challenge, but for the experienced surfer, that’s a powerful, heavy wave.

Wednesday, September 2nd afternoon cleans up nicely. Solid 6ft south swell with a 13-second period and a clean cross-offshore wind. That’s excellent for experienced surfers.

Thursday, September 3rd morning sees the swell drop but the wind swings strong offshore at 16 mph. Nice and clean, but getting hard to paddle into.

The following Friday, September 4th, you’re looking at 8ft swell all day with clean cross-offshore wind. That’s a big, powerful beach break.

The last real notable window is Sunday, September 6th morning. Glassy conditions return, with a fun 4ft south swell and 11-second period. Easy paddling, clean waves.

After that, it’s a long tail of weaker, shorter-period windswell and poor conditions through Monday and Tuesday, which isn’t worth much.

So the standouts are clearly the clean, glassy mornings of August 25th and 26th, and the clean afternoon session on August 28th. For the bigger stuff later on, September 2nd afternoon and September 4th are the top calls, but bring your big-wave board and your experience.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu afternoon). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
3
2
1
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
5
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
S
12
1
S
12
1
S
15
1
S
18
0.9
S
16
0.8
S
15
1.3
S
17
1.8
S
17
1.9
SSE
15
1.4
SSE
13
1.2
SSE
13
0.9
SSE
12
0.8
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
11
1.2
NE
6
0.7
NE
7
0.4
S
16
0.9
S
13
1.3
S
16
2.2
S
16
2.5
S
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
368
290
434
600
417
267
1009
1903
1663
711
476
258
145
138
112
54
80
255
864
2389
3751
Wind (km/h)
5
NNW
5
E
10
NNW
5
NNW
5
NE
20
WNW
15
SSE
10
E
20
NNE
20
NNE
10
NNW
20
N
15
N
15
NNE
15
N
15
NW
15
W
25
SW
5
NNW
10
ENE
10
W
Wind State
glassy
on
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross
on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
off
High Tide
3:28PM1.49m
3:46AM1.38m
4:13PM1.49m
4:33AM1.38m
4:59PM1.50m
5:22AM1.41m
5:47PM1.53m
6:11AM1.46m
6:33PM1.57m
6:58AM1.52m
7:20PM1.62m
7:44AM1.59m
8:05PM1.66m
Low Tide
9:11AM0.44m
9:43PM0.43m
10:00AM0.41m
10:29PM0.39m
10:48AM0.36m
11:15PM0.34m
11:32AM0.32m
00:03AM0.30m
12:17PM0.28m
00:49AM0.26m
1:02PM0.25m
1:35AM0.24m
1:48PM0.24m
2:20AM0.23m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
light rain
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:39
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:33
6:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:38
5:39
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:44
 mm
1
1
1
Temp °C
13
15
13
15
17
15
11
11
11
15
15
15
18
16
14
16
16
12
13
13
14
Feels °C
11
12
11
13
14
11
8
9
7
11
13
11
15
13
12
12
12
8
10
10
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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