Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 27 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, S swell with 1,858 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 22 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 12s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.1m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 9s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Thu 27th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s in the water for this stretch.
We’re staring at Last Chance, a point break that needs a good south swell and the right wind. The first few days are a no-go. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are tiny and weak, so leave the board at home. Monday the 24th is a mixed bag. The morning serves up a clean 4ft S swell with offshore wind, but the period is a short 9 seconds, so the energy is moderate (311). The afternoon bumps up to 5ft but the wind turns onshore, ruining the fun.
The one to circle is Thursday the 27th morning. Glassy conditions, clear skies, and a solid 6ft S groundswell with a 13-second period. The combined energy is a strong 1203, and the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. For a point break, that long period will groove some proper lines, but it’ll have some punch. If you’re not solid on your backhand, maybe sit this one out.
Tuesday the 25th is also a stunner. The morning has a clean 4ft S swell, 12-second period, with a cross-off breeze, and the energy is a solid 549. Water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild. The afternoon glass-off is a dream, with 4ft and a glassy surface.
After that, things get rowdy. The end of the month and into early September sees a big jump. On Wednesday the 2nd of September, the afternoon hits 15ft S swell—way too big for this spot, and the wind picks up. That’s for the kamikaze crew only. The next few days are blown out with strong winds until the 6th of September, when Sunday morning brings a clean 6ft S swell, 12-second period, and offshore wind. That’s another one for the experienced.
So, bottom line: Thursday the 27th is the standout. Tuesday the 25th is a close second. The rest of the window is either flat, windy, or oversized. Pick your session wisely.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | ESE 13 | S 9 | S 14 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 14 | SSE 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 582 | 347 | 274 | 210 | 115 | 56 | 33 | 276 | 1002 | 1463 | 513 | 339 | 151 | 278 | 301 | 1246 | 1172 | 1048 | 554 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off |
High Tide | 00:35AM1.57m | 1:06PM1.58m | 1:22AM1.51m | 1:56PM1.54m | 2:10AM1.45m | 2:43PM1.52m | 2:58AM1.40m | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:49AM0.45m | 7:20PM0.47m | 7:35AM0.46m | 8:10PM0.48m | 8:23AM0.46m | 8:57PM0.47m | 9:11AM0.44m | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | |||||||
 |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
Feels °C | 6 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSW 5 | S 9 | S 14 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 14 | SSE 13 |
| kJ | 582 | 347 | 274 | 210 | 115 | 56 | 9 | 276 | 1002 | 1463 | 513 | 339 | 151 | 278 | 301 | 1246 | 1172 | 1048 | 554 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | E 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | NE 4 | ESE 13 | S 17 | S 15 | S 10 | ESE 13 | SSE 6 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | S 17 |
| kJ | 52 | 30 | 13 | 29 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 4 | 33 | 52 | 110 | 71 | 33 | 43 | 24 | 13 | 368 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 17 | E 15 | E 14 | SE 8 | E 13 | NE 4 | SSE 9 | NE 5 | E 11 | ESE 13 | NE 5 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | E 10 | — | SE 13 | NE 10 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 55 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 32 | 29 | 33 | 2 | — | 7 | 4 | 14 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | NNE 3 | — | NW 2 | N 3 | NNW 4 | WNW 3 | SSW 9 | — | NNE 4 | — | — | — | — | S 9 | — | — | ENE 3 | NE 4 |
| kJ | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 794 | — | 13 | — | — | — | — | 76 | — | — | 7 | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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