Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Looks like we’ve got a bit of a wait, then a real cracker of a Sunday lined up for Last Chance. This point break is an advanced wave, exposed and needing a NE swell to fire, so we’re playing a long game. The first week is mostly a write-off with tiny, weak swell or messy wind. Hold tight.

Tuesday the 8th is a no-go: 10ft of bumpy, short-period SSE windswell with a 22 mph cross-off wind – better off watching from the cliff. Wednesday the 9th morning cleans up nicely. Light offshore wind from the west at 3 mph and a drop to 5ft from the SE, period a short 8 seconds, but the combined energy is moderate (324). The water temperature is about average for this time of year. It’s surfable, clean, but not special.

Thursday the 10th is flat. Drop down to 3ft in the morning, then 2ft in the afternoon with glassy conditions – lovely to look at, but barely a ripple.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are tiny – we’re talking 1ft to 2ft of long-period S swell (17-19 seconds), so the energy is weak to moderate (around 171 to 158). Paddling out would be a waiting game with nothing to ride.

Then the real standout hits. Sunday the 13th is the best on offer. Morning session brings 8ft of S groundswell with a very long 16-second period. That’s a strong event with combined energy hitting 2812. Add a light 6 mph cross-off wind from the WNW, and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. This is solid, powerful stuff – too big for beginners, perfect for those who know the point. The afternoon holds at 7ft with the same period and energy at 2048. Expect a few out there, as crowds are sometimes an issue here.

Monday the 14th morning is still clean and glassy with 5ft of S swell, period 13 seconds, energy moderate at 705. “Very good surf conditions”. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze, chopping it up a bit.

Tuesday the 15th through Wednesday the 16th fades quickly. Swell drops below 4ft, winds turn fresh on Wednesday, and it’s back to poor.

Another big pulse appears on Friday the 18th. Morning shows 8ft of S swell, period 11 seconds, combined energy 1426, with a moderate offshore wind from the WNW. “Excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – that’s a big, clean swell. This is a long-range call though, so treat it as promising but less certain. Saturday the 19th morning holds 7ft but with a 19 mph cross-off wind, making it marginal.

After that, it’s a slow slide into small, ordinary waves through to the end of the 23rd, with nothing worth chasing.

So, short story: hold out for Sunday the 13th, and keep an eye on Friday the 18th for a possible second punch. Everything else is a flat spell or a big mess.

Rusty.

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