Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of swell at Last Chance, a point break that’s exposed to the south and likes it from the NE. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – a full 2° off the average, so you’ll feel that chill.

The action kicks off Sunday the 19th of July. Morning is the real standout here. We’ve got a 6ft south swell with a very long period of 18 seconds, so that’s serious groundswell energy. The combined energy is a hefty 2761 (strong), and with a light 6 mph offshore breeze from the WSW, it’s going to be clean. This is advanced territory though – 6ft with that long period will be powerful and the sets will be a bit spaced out, making paddling out easier between them, but the wave itself is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon drops off a bit with stronger cross-offshore winds.

Monday the 20th keeps the goods coming. Morning has a 6ft south swell (15-second period, 1631 energy) with a cross-offshore breeze. It’s still clean and excellent for experienced surfers. The afternoon ramps up to 7ft from the south with a 19-second period – that’s massive energy at 3515. That’s big, heavy, and only for the well-prepared crew.

Tuesday the 21st is another morning highlight. 7ft south swell, 16-second period, with a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is 2298. That’s a lot of water moving. The afternoon sees a shift to a light cross-onshore, which won’t be as nice.

We start to see a drop-off on Wednesday the 22nd. The swell eases to 4ft from the SSE with a 12-second period. The energy drops to 505 (moderate). The morning is a bit cross-off, but the afternoon goes glassy. That’s a beautiful window for a cleaner, smaller session, though it’s not the size of the earlier days.

From Thursday the 23rd through Saturday the 25th, it gets small and weak. The swell drops under 3ft, energy falls into the double digits, and winds get messy. There’s a brief moment on the 25th morning with a 2ft east swell and a clean offshore, but it’s barely surfable. You’ll be staring at a flat spell there for a few days.

Sunday the 26th shows a bit of life again. The morning picks up to 5ft from the south (10-second period, 682 energy), but it’s a bit wind-affected. The afternoon builds to 6ft (12-second period, 1101 energy) with a cross-offshore breeze. It’s marginal, but there’s hope.

Now, the real return to form hits Monday the 27th. The morning has a 3ft south swell with a very long 15-second period and a clean offshore breeze – that’s a sweet, clean window. But the afternoon is the standout for the second week: 6ft from the south, 18-second period, 2117 energy, with a clean cross-offshore wind. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th are a write-off – strong winds, low energy, poor conditions.

Then, hold onto your board. Thursday the 30th of July is a big one. We’re looking at 12ft from the south, 12-second period, with energy readings of 3053 and 3838. That’s a huge, powerful swell. The wind is cross-offshore, which keeps it clean, but at 12ft, this is strictly for experts. This is a big, heavy ocean.

Friday the 31st of July morning is the best of the long-range. 10ft from the SSE, 13-second period, 2645 energy, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the north. That’s clean, powerful, and set up beautifully for a point break like Last Chance. The afternoon turns cross-onshore, so get on it early.

Saturday the 1st of August and Sunday the 2nd of August fade back to small, weak conditions. The Sunday morning of the 2nd goes glassy with a 4ft south swell, which will be a fun, clean little session for a log.

The forecast ends on Monday the 3rd of August with a bump back up to 7ft from the south, but with strong cross-shore winds making it choppy and messy.

So, the true standouts? Sunday the 19th of July morning – that’s the first, with perfect conditions and a solid, long-period groundswell. And then, for the second week, Monday the 27th of July afternoon and Friday the 31st of July morning. Both offer excellent, clean, powerful surf for experienced surfers. The 31st is a bit further out, so keep your fingers crossed, but it looks promising.

Rusty out.

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