Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. We’ve got one spot on offer for the next couple of weeks: Last Chance, a tricky, advanced point break that’s fairly consistent but demands respect. Water temp is sitting at about 54°F, which is roughly 3°F colder than usual for this time of year – so that’s a bit nippy, even for July. Grab a thicker suit if you’re paddling out.

The first few days are messy. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see some chest-to-head high swell, around 5 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is cross-off and fairly strong, and the conditions are called marginal or questionable. Not worth getting excited about – the combined swell energy is moderate to strong (1099 up to 2974) but the quality just isn’t there for a good session.

Wednesday the 29th morning is where it starts to look interesting. That’s your first real standout. The wind goes light offshore from the WNW at just 3 mph, the swell is a solid 7 ft from the ESE with a 13-second period (nice long groundswell), and the combined energy is 1233 (strong). Clean lines, excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is the one to aim for if you’ve got the skills – a point break like this will handle that long period well. Just be aware, it’s advanced-only at this size.

By Thursday the 30th, the swell drops a bit to 4 ft–5 ft, still clean with light cross-off winds, and the energy drops to 544–714 (moderate). Good for a fun but smaller session.

Then Friday the 31st morning is a write-off – tiny 3 ft E swell with messy cross-shore wind. Afternoon picks up again to 6 ft from the NNE, but that’s short-period (8 seconds) and clean-ish. Not a standout.

Saturday August 1st looks like a day to skip. The morning is barely breaking at 2 ft, with a very long 16-second period that’ll mostly slide through at a beach break – but Last Chance is a point, so that might actually line up, but the size is tiny. The afternoon blows up to 16 ft from the S, which is way too big for this break. Combined energy hits 5583 (very strong). That’s expert-only territory and even then, it’s likely too much.

Sunday August 2nd through Monday August 3rd are a write-off – solid 10 ft to 15 ft southerly swell but with strong to near-gale cross-off winds (25–31 mph). Combined energy goes from 2648 up to a massive 12533. That’s not surfable at Last Chance – honestly, with that wind and size, it’s more of a kiteboarding setup than a paddle session.

Tuesday August 4th is more manageable: 8 ft–8 ft SE swell, 13-second period, clean cross-off, energy around 1606–2351 (strong). Still solid, still advanced only.

From Wednesday August 5th through Friday August 7th, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Swell drops and rises between 4 ft and 12 ft, with moderate cross-off or cross-shore winds. Nothing is firing clean enough to call a standout. Energy bounces from 561 up to 2792.

Then we hit Saturday August 8th afternoon. This is the big one. The swell is 12 ft from the S with a 13-second period, cross-off wind from the SSW at 9 mph, and the combined energy is 7851 (very strong). The conditions are described as exceptional for expert surfers. This is your second standout – but it’s for experts only. That size at a point break with that much energy will be heavy. If you’re not solid, stay on the sand.

Sunday August 9th – still good, 7 ft S swell with a long 14-second period, clean and cross-off, energy 1620. Excellent for experienced surfers. Worth a paddle.

Monday August 10th morning is a gem – 5 ft from the S, 17-second period (very long groundswell), perfect offshore from the W at just 3 mph, energy 1622. That’s going to produce some beautiful, lined-up waves at the point. Glassy, clean, and powerful for the size. Another standout if you can read the long-period sets.

Tuesday August 11th is small but glassy – 3 ft in the morning, 3 ft in the afternoon, wind goes glassy from the N and NW at 3 mph. Not big, but if you want a longboard or a fun small-wave session, that’s your window. Energy is low (230–373).

So, to wrap it up: the two true standouts are Wednesday July 29th morning (7 ft, ESE, clean offshore) and Saturday August 8th afternoon (12 ft, S, clean, for experts only). The long-range stuff on Monday August 10th morning (5 ft, S, 17s, glassy offshore) is also promising but less certain this far out. Otherwise, the first week is a slow burn, and the second week has a few big, clean days but they’re serious.

Rusty.

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