Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 13 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 20 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 13s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, S swell with 7,284 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 20 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 13s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. Another secondary swell of 2.1m and 9s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 20th Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Thu 20th Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Last Chance over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a waiting game, but there’s a couple of rippers in there.
Early on, we’ve got a rough start. Small, messy waves with side-onshore winds keep things ugly through the 13th and 14th. The wave energy is weak—around 244 on Thursday morning—and the water’s sitting at about 54°, which feels a touch cooler than normal for this time of year.
Come Saturday the 15th, the swell lines finally show up. A 7ft wave from the east with moderate energy (743) and a light onshore breeze means the morning is rideable, if not perfect. Sunday the 16th gets serious: 13ft from the south in the afternoon, with strong energy (2902) and clean conditions from a strong cross-offshore wind. That’s expert-only territory.
Now for the good stuff. Thursday, August 20th is the one to circle. Morning brings an 8ft SSE groundswell with a long 13-second period, moderate offshore wind from the WSW, and excellent conditions for skilled surfers. Energy is very strong at 2220. This is a clean, powerful day at the point.
Then Friday morning, August 21st, is a gem. The swell drops to 5ft from the SSE, but the wind goes glassy—totally calm at 5 mph from the NNW. Moderate energy (645), clean, silky waves, and a long 11-second period. It’s not the optimum NE direction for Last Chance, but with those conditions, you’ll still find some long, fun rides.
After that, the size fades. The 22nd through the 24th are smaller with more onshore influences. A little spike to 5ft from the SSE on Tuesday the 25th, but it’s choppy with cross-onshore winds. By the 27th, it’s barely a ripple at 1ft.
Bottom line: grit your teeth through the first week, then Thursday the 20th delivers a proper, clean, solid swell. Friday the 21st gives you that rare glassy session. After that, it’s small and quiet.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 59mm), heaviest during Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the SE on Sat morning, strong winds from the SSW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 26mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 10°C on Mon night, min 8°C on Sun afternoon). Mainly strong winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | NE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | SE 9 | SE 11 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 100 | 98 | 155 | 239 | 1437 | 676 | 488 | 566 | 305 | 2503 | 2291 | 1477 | 1592 | 593 | 1086 | 1097 | 1641 | 2770 | 2322 | 1424 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:54PM1.87m | 6:24AM1.72m | 6:49PM1.87m | 7:19AM1.73m | 7:41PM1.84m | 8:11AM1.75m | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:16AM0.09m | 12:32PM0.05m | 1:11AM0.09m | 1:24PM0.08m | 2:02AM0.11m | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | | |  | |
 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — |
 | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — |
mm | 12 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 8 | SSE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | SE 9 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 17 | S 15 |
| kJ | 100 | 51 | 50 | 7 | 987 | 676 | 488 | 566 | 305 | 230 | 200 | 202 | 84 | 593 | 1086 | 739 | 10 | 283 | 1769 | 1046 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SE 11 | ESE 14 | S 15 | S 16 | S 18 | S 18 | ESE 8 | — | SSW 19 | SSW 16 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 16 | ESE 14 | SE 14 | — |
| kJ | 27 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 25 | 96 | 165 | — | 312 | 437 | 65 | 96 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 21 | 29 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | SE 13 | E 15 | S 16 | SSW 15 | S 19 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | — | — | ESE 15 | — | — | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 17 | 7 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 7 | 31 | 120 | — | — | 21 | — | — | — | 31 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | NE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | — | ESE 8 | — | SSW 6 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | 58 | 98 | 155 | 239 | 1437 | — | 198 | — | 441 | 2503 | 2291 | 1477 | 1592 | 932 | 828 | 1097 | 1641 | 2770 | 2322 | 1424 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 11 | 11 | 122 | 35 | 8 | 78 | 12 | 141 | 141 | 153 | 102 | 153 | 93 | 102 | 103 | 102 | 103 | 160 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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