Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 14s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 14s period, S swell with 1,622 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 14s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 8s period and expected on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Last Chance.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first real slap of swell hits us Wednesday afternoon, but it’s a messy one. The water’s a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 55°F, and the combined energy is pumping hard at 3364, but the wind is onshore and the conditions are just marginal. It’s not the day to drop everything and paddle out.
The first standout window is Thursday morning, September 3rd. We’ve got a clean 5ft S swell with a decent 13-second period, light offshore wind from the NW, and the energy is solid at 900. This is the kind of session where you’ll be trading waves with a smile. The break is a point, so that long-period groundswell will line up nicely. Just keep in mind, the crowds are sometimes a thing here, so get in early.
Friday and Saturday are a write-off. The swell drops right off, with waves under 3ft and wind picking up. We’re looking at a few days of underwhelming surf until Tuesday morning, September 8th. That’s when a new S swell pushes through at 5ft with a 10-second period, combined energy of 450, and clean conditions. It’s not a monster, but it’s surfable and fun.
Now, the real highlight for the experienced crew is Saturday morning, September 12th. This is the one. A solid 8ft S swell, 9-second period, and combined energy of 1139. That’s a lot of power. The wind is offshore and clean, making for excellent surf for those who know what they’re doing. This is definitely too big for beginners, but for the advanced surfer, this is the best on offer. The swell direction is from the S, which is spot on for the optimum NE direction at this point, so it should wrap in nicely.
After that, the swell hangs around in the 6ft to 7ft range on Sunday, September 13th, with glassy conditions in the afternoon. That’s a good one for the troops, but the period is a bit short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit more sectiony.
The second week quiets down again. There’s a small window on Wednesday morning, September 16th, with a 4ft S swell and clean wind, but it’s nothing to write home about. The long-range stuff is there, but the confidence is lower.
So, to sum it up: Thursday morning, September 3rd, is your clean, fun session. But if you’re an expert looking for power, clear your calendar for Saturday morning, September 12th. That’s the standout.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | S 15 | S 8 | NNE 5 | S 11 | S 17 | S 17 | S 11 | N 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 572 | 284 | 121 | 75 | 31 | 17 | 76 | 29 | 110 | 53 | 140 | 23 | 7 | 908 | 431 | 262 | 146 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | 11:46AM1.74m | 00:17AM1.65m | 12:46PM1.73m | 1:15AM1.63m | 1:45PM1.73m | 2:15AM1.61m | 2:43PM1.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | 5:34AM0.23m | 6:09PM0.23m | 6:29AM0.21m | 7:08PM0.21m | 7:26AM0.19m | 8:07PM0.18m | 8:26AM0.16m | 9:05PM0.15m | |||||||
 |  | | | |  | | | | | | | |  |  | |  |  | | | |
 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — |
 | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 14 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 12 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSW 7 | S 8 | NE 5 | S 11 | S 9 | S 17 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 |
| kJ | 3355 | 1858 | 892 | 572 | 284 | 121 | 75 | 31 | 41 | 76 | 22 | 110 | 40 | 140 | 11 | 6 | 908 | 431 | 262 | 146 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NNE 4 | SSE 9 | S 15 | SSE 8 | E 10 | S 17 | SSW 17 | S 11 | N 9 | NNE 9 | E 16 | NE 6 | NE 7 |
| kJ | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 7 | 53 | 112 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 20 | 7 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 11 | — | — | SE 10 | — | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | ENE 10 | SSW 6 | S 9 | E 10 | S 8 | S 16 | NE 9 | E 16 | NE 16 | E 16 | E 14 |
| kJ | — | 5 | — | — | 4 | — | 6 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | N 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | SW 4 | — | NE 2 | NNE 5 | NNE 4 | N 3 | NE 7 | NW 3 | SSW 6 | — | NNE 3 | — | SSW 5 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | — | 1 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 86 | 1 | 350 | — | 4 | — | 92 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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