Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what’s on the table for Last Chance.

The first half of the period is a bit of a mixed bag, with some good early potential that gets interrupted by a stretch of messy, blown-out conditions. The second week brings a return of clean but stronger, short-period swell, and the very end of the outlook looks flat and lackluster. The real standout is a very specific window on the first morning.

Your best bet, and the only real true standout here, is Friday morning, July 3rd at Last Chance. It’s a point break, exposed to the swell, and early in the day you’ve got glassy conditions with a light breeze from the WNW. The water temperature is 56°, which feels a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good suit. The swell is a solid 5ft from the east with a nice, long period of 12 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, packing good energy into the point. The combined swell energy is a moderate 783. For a premium spot like this, glassy conditions with a decent east swell is the time to go, and the crowd situation is only *sometimes* an issue. This is the session to circle. The afternoon turns cross-on, so that clean morning window is key.

Saturday the 4th starts cross-shore and clean-looking, but the wind quickly gets on it and it turns choppy later in the day. Not terrible, but a step down from Friday morning.

Sunday the 5th morning shows a 7ft swell with a short period of just 7 seconds, and a cross-offshore wind keeping it clean. That short period means it’ll be a bit bumpy and less powerful, a little more tricky for the point. The afternoon dies down.

From Monday the 6th right through to Wednesday the 8th, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore with rain or clouds. Swell sizes vary a bit, up to 7ft, but with fresh winds and choppy conditions, the quality is poor. It’s a bit of a write-off for a clean wave.

Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th clean up with cross-offshore winds, but the wind is strong (22-28 mph) from the south and southwest, while the swell is a short period 8-10 seconds. The energy readings are actually high, between 920 and 1361, but it’s a lumpy, powerful, and windy setup. For a break like this, that’s looking more like a kite-surfing day than a pleasant paddle session for most.

Saturday morning, July 11th is your second standout window. It’s not as good as the first Friday, but it’s the best of the rest. You’ve got a moderate offshore breeze from the WSW cleaning up a 7ft south swell. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, not smooth groundswell. But offshore wind at a point break is always worth paying attention to. The combined energy is moderate at 806. This will be a fun, choppier but ripable session for experienced surfers. That 7ft is getting into expert-only territory.

The rest of that second week, from the 12th to the 15th, is all cross-offshore winds with fluctuating short-period swell between 5ft and 7ft. The energy stays high, over 1000 on several days, but the short period and varying winds keep it from being truly classic. The 15th sees a jump in period to a very long 13 seconds on the afternoon, combined with a 5ft swell from the southeast (1096 energy). That long period could set up well on the point, but the cross-shore wind (12 mph) will put some chop on it.

From the morning of Thursday the 16th onward, the forecast dries up. Swell drops below 3ft, winds are onshore or strong, and the conditions are rated poor. The last few days of the outlook are quiet and not worth getting excited about. That’s the run.

Rusty

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