Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 17 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 12s period, S swell with 9,560 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 6.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.1m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Mon 17th Aug) | 20ft (6.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about Last Chance. It’s an advanced point break that breaks fairly consistently, and it loves a NE swell. The water is running about 54°F, which is a bit colder than usual for August – almost 3 degrees off, so you’ll want a thick suit.
The start of the period is ugly. Thursday the 13th has a weak 4ft swell from the SE with a short 9-second period, and a cross-shore breeze. The energy is only 244, so it’s weak. Not worth it. Friday the 14th gets bigger but worse – a 7ft ENE swell Friday afternoon, period a tiny 7 seconds, and a 30 km/h onshore wind. Energy hits 493, but it’s messy.
Saturday the 15th is still bumpy. A 7ft easterly swell, 9-second period, cross-onshore wind. Energy is 619, but it’s lumpy. Sunday the 16th gets big and clean but dangerous. The swell jumps to 12ft from the south on Sunday afternoon, period 9 seconds, and the energy is 2435 – strong. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll look clean, but 12ft at a point is for experts only. Monday the 17th is even bigger: 16ft to 18ft south swell, period hitting 12 seconds, and the energy is massive – 6948 to 9042. That’s very strong. Clean but terrifying.
Tuesday the 18th is a standout for the brave. The swell is still 15ft from the south, period 11 seconds, energy 4728. Wind is clean cross-off, and the forecast says conditions are favorable. But the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Experts only.
Wednesday the 19th drops to 13ft, still south, 11 seconds, with 4244 energy. Clean but huge. Conditions are marginal.
The real sweet spot is Friday the 21st. The swell drops to 6ft from the SSE, period a nice 11 seconds, and the wind turns light offshore from the west at about 6 mph. That is clean. The energy is 626, moderate, but the combo of an offshore breeze and a solid groundswell at a point is the best of the whole run. Friday morning is the one.
Saturday the 22nd is small – 3ft – and not worth it. Sunday the 23rd has a glassy 3ft from the south in the morning, clean but tiny. Then it fades. The last decent day is Friday the 28th, over a week away: 3ft easterly swell, 12-second period, clean cross-off wind. Small but clean for the log.
So, the standout is Friday the 21st morning. That’s your best bet. Tuesday the 18th is for the heavy hitters only. The rest of the time, there are long gaps with nothing to get excited about. The forecast can shift, so keep an eye on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 66mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NE on Fri night, strong winds from the SSW by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 39mm), heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Mon afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | SE 8 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | E 9 | E 9 | S 9 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 203 | 98 | 164 | 166 | 444 | 921 | 600 | 555 | 641 | 373 | 2111 | 5266 | 6842 | 8971 | 7821 | 4728 | 4311 | 3478 | 4244 | 3952 | 2248 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:54PM1.87m | 6:24AM1.72m | 6:49PM1.87m | 7:19AM1.73m | 7:41PM1.84m | 8:11AM1.75m | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:39AM0.06m | 00:16AM0.09m | 12:32PM0.05m | 1:11AM0.09m | 1:24PM0.08m | 2:02AM0.11m | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — |
 | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — |
mm | 5 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 3 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 8 | SSE 10 | S 15 | E 9 | E 8 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | E 10 | — | SSW 16 | SSW 14 |
| kJ | 203 | 98 | 51 | 37 | 9 | 17 | 600 | 555 | 641 | 373 | 225 | 183 | 106 | 71 | 33 | — | — | 8 | — | 1123 | 731 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | ESE 14 | S 16 | SSE 9 | S 16 | S 18 | S 16 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 12 | SE 12 |
| kJ | 17 | 27 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 8 | 19 | 25 | 83 | 193 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | 36 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SSE 10 | ESE 14 | — | SSW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 4 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 20 | — | 24 | 62 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 8 | — | — | — | SSW 6 | S 9 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | SSE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 |
| kJ | 20 | 55 | 164 | 166 | 444 | 921 | — | — | — | 318 | 2111 | 5266 | 6842 | 8971 | 7821 | 4728 | 4311 | 3478 | 4244 | 3952 | 2248 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 122 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 130 | 141 | 149 | 158 | 158 | 287 | 160 | 153 | 101 | 101 | 153 | 86 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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