Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 07 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.7° C
1.2° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 7 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 8 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 13s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 10s period, NE swell with 3,492 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 13s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 8s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Sat 8th Aug)7ft (2.2m) 13s
Best Surf12AM (Sat 8th Aug)7ft (2.2m) 13s
Most Powerful 6PM (Fri 14th Aug)13ft (4.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Last Chance is cooking up for us over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a bit of a slow burn, but there are a few moments that’ll get the blood pumping if you play your cards right. The first real window opens on Friday morning, August 7th. The water’s sitting at 55°, which is about a degree colder than we’re used to for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties. We’ve got a solid 4ft swell running from the SSE with a very long 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wave energy is strong at 1393, and with glassy conditions and a clear sky, this is going to be clean as a whistle. This is prime for experienced surfers, so if you’ve got the skill, this Friday morning is your standout. The swell direction matches the optimum NE direction? Well, it’s a point break, so that long-period SSE groundswell will wrap in nicely. Keep in mind, that long period can make it a bit straight at the beach, but on a point like this, it’s going to line up beautifully.

Saturday morning, August 8th, is the other real highlight. The swell bumps up to 6ft from the SSE, period still a healthy 12 seconds, and wave energy is solid at 1156. Winds are glassy from the NNW, so it’s another session of clean, lined-up waves. This is still in the advanced zone with that size, but if you’re comfortable in overhead surf, you’ll be grinning.

Now, after those two mornings, things get a bit ordinary. Sunday and Monday are smaller and the winds get messy, so it’s not worth paddling out. We’ve got a gap of poor to marginal conditions from Sunday afternoon right through the middle of the following week. The swell drops off, and we get cross-onshore winds and short-period junk.

There’s a flicker of hope on Tuesday morning, August 11th, with a 3ft SE swell at 12 seconds and clean conditions, but the energy is only moderate at 468 – it’s surfable but nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a long dry spell. From Wednesday the 12th all the way through Saturday the 15th, it’s mostly small and choppy. The swell sticks around the 2ft to 5ft range but with short periods and moderate to fresh onshore winds. Honestly, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially with those consistent cross-on breezes.

Things start to look up again on Sunday morning, August 16th. We’ve got a 5ft S swell, but with a short 7-second period, so the quality won’t be amazing. The afternoon, however, is worth noting: the swell hits 7ft from the S, still short-period, but the winds turn light offshore from the SSW. It’s going to be a bit fat and bumpy, but there’s some grunt there for the experienced crew.

The big stuff arrives on Monday and Tuesday, August 17th and 18th. We’re looking at 6ft to 7ft SSE/S swells, with wave energy jumping to 1214 on Monday afternoon. The winds are cross-offshore and clean, but the period stays short (8-10 seconds). This is big, powerful, but a bit messy. It’s expert territory, especially when it gets over 7ft. The best of this push might be Monday afternoon if you can handle the size, but it’s not the clean, lined-up groundswell we had at the start.

The end of the forecast period, from Wednesday the 19th onward, fades out again. Small waves and strong winds on Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st bring a 6ft to 8ft S swell, but with howling SSW winds of 22-28 mph. The wave energy gets up to 2898 on Friday morning, but with that wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. Not for the faint-hearted.

Best on offer: Without a doubt, Friday morning, August 7th and Saturday morning, August 8th at Last Chance. Clean, glassy, solid groundswell with excellent shape. If you can only pick one session, make it that Friday morning.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 6°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
7
Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
4
4
1
1
1
0
2
1
0
2
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SSE
17
1.7
SSE
15
2.2
SSE
13
1.8
SSE
12
1.7
SSE
12
1.4
SSE
11
1.3
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
14
1
SSE
11
0.8
SSE
10
0.8
SSE
10
1.3
S
9
1.5
S
9
1.5
SSE
9
1.1
SSE
9
0.8
SSE
8
1.3
ENE
6
0.9
ENE
6
0.9
E
6
0.9
E
6
0.9
NE
6
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
745
1240
1609
1003
847
469
379
246
243
133
125
281
380
383
199
85
100
66
64
64
57
Wind (km/h)
0
NW
10
E
5
NNW
5
NNW
10
NE
20
N
15
N
20
N
10
NNW
5
WNW
15
SSE
10
W
10
W
10
SE
15
N
25
NNE
25
NE
15
NNE
10
N
15
NE
15
NNE
Wind State
glassy
on
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
off
off
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
12:04PM1.70m
00:33AM1.67m
1:01PM1.74m
1:29AM1.67m
2:00PM1.77m
2:29AM1.68m
2:59PM1.81m
3:29AM1.69m
3:57PM1.84m
4:28AM1.70m
4:56PM1.86m
5:26AM1.71m
5:54PM1.87m
Low Tide
6:23PM0.31m
6:46AM0.27m
7:22PM0.29m
7:41AM0.25m
8:22PM0.24m
8:41AM0.22m
9:21PM0.19m
9:43AM0.16m
10:20PM0.15m
10:43AM0.10m
11:18PM0.11m
11:39AM0.06m
00:16AM0.09m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:05
7:03
7:03
7:01
7:00
6:58
6:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:22
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:28
 mm
3
Temp °C
8
9
8
12
12
11
13
14
13
14
13
11
11
11
10
11
13
13
17
16
15
Feels °C
6
5
5
9
8
7
9
10
10
12
9
8
9
9
7
6
8
10
15
13
13
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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