Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 07 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.5° C
1.4° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 7 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 8 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 12s period, SSE swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 8 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 12s period, SSE swell with 1,003 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 12s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 1.8m 12s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 8s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 6AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9AM (Sat 8th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 12s
Best Surf 9AM (Sat 8th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 12s
Most Powerful 9AM (Sat 8th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the goods on the next couple of weeks for Last Chance. This is a point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, with an optimum direction from the NE. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

We kick off on Saturday, August 8th, bright and early. The morning’s looking glassy with a light NNW breeze at 3 mph and a solid 6 ft SSE swell churning in at 12 seconds. The combined energy is pumping at 1156, and the conditions are spot-on for experienced surfers. Clean lines, decent power – this is where you want to be. Saturday arvo drops off though, cross-on wind and a lower score, so don’t waste the morning.

Sunday and Monday are a bit average, with smaller swell and cross-shore winds. Monday morning on August 10th has a clean 3 ft SSE swell with offshore WNW wind at 9 mph, but it’s weak (172 combined energy). Not much to write home about.

Tuesday, August 11th, brings a nice pickup. Morning session has a 4 ft SE swell, 12-second period, light WSW cross-off breeze, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate at 526, and the forecast is promising. Good chance of some fun waves.

Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off with fresh onshore winds and poor surf – a gap of a couple of days where you’re better off staying dry.

Then Friday, August 14th, things get interesting again. The afternoon session is a standout: glassy conditions with WNW wind at 3 mph, a 7 ft NE swell at 10 seconds, and 1152 combined energy. This is expert territory, but the lines will be clean and powerful. The morning is also workable with an 8 ft NE swell, though it’s a bit choppy.

Saturday August 15th and Sunday August 16th are mediocre – small swell and moderate winds, nothing to get excited about.

Now, Monday August 17th morning is a cracker. Offshore W wind at 9 mph, 10 ft S swell at 10 seconds, and massive energy (1930). Clean, powerful, and for experts only. Tuesday August 18th and Wednesday August 19th mornings are also worth a paddle – clean conditions, solid S swell in the 7 ft to 12 ft range, with energy climbing to 4336 on Wednesday. That Wednesday morning is the pick of the bunch for the second week: 12 ft S swell, 11-second period, light WNW cross-off breeze, and glassy conditions. This is big, organised groundswell – best for experienced surfers at a point break.

Thursday August 20th is too big – 16 ft S swell with 7415 energy – the break can’t handle it, even with clean conditions. Friday August 21st is still big but manageable, with 12 ft SSE swell and moderate cross-off wind.

The run finishes strong on Saturday August 22nd and Sunday August 23rd. Saturday morning has a clean 7 ft SE swell with offshore W wind, and Sunday morning is a total glass-off with no wind, a tiny 3 ft S swell, but a very long 20-second period. That long-period groundswell is best for a point break, and the energy is still moderate at 905. A rare, clean end to the period.

If you’re out there, focus on Saturday August 8th morning, Friday August 14th afternoon, and Wednesday August 19th morning. The big stuff mid-week is for experts only, but the quality is there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 6°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue afternoon, fresh winds from the NNE by Wed night).

Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
1
2
1
1
2
1
0
2
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SSE
13
1.8
SSE
12
1.7
SSE
12
1.4
SSE
11
1.3
SSE
11
0.9
SSE
13
1.1
SSE
11
0.9
SSE
10
0.9
SSE
10
0.8
SSE
9
1.1
SE
12
1.3
SSE
11
1
SSE
11
1.1
SE
8
1.1
SE
10
0.9
ESE
9
0.8
ESE
9
0.8
ESE
8
1.2
NE
6
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1609
1003
847
495
387
265
302
163
171
108
355
423
218
125
235
119
84
73
109
Wind (km/h)
10
NNW
5
NNW
10
NE
15
N
15
N
15
N
15
NNW
15
WNW
10
S
15
WSW
10
WSW
10
S
15
N
15
NNE
30
NE
20
NNE
30
NNE
20
NNE
35
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
off
cross
off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
00:33AM1.67m
1:01PM1.74m
1:29AM1.67m
2:00PM1.77m
2:29AM1.68m
2:59PM1.81m
3:29AM1.69m
3:57PM1.84m
4:28AM1.70m
4:56PM1.86m
5:26AM1.71m
5:54PM1.87m
Low Tide
6:46AM0.27m
7:22PM0.29m
7:41AM0.25m
8:22PM0.24m
8:41AM0.22m
9:21PM0.19m
9:43AM0.16m
10:20PM0.15m
10:43AM0.10m
11:18PM0.11m
11:39AM0.06m
00:16AM0.09m
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
light rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:03
7:03
7:01
7:00
6:58
6:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:28
 mm
1
1
1
3
9
4
Temp °C
7
11
12
11
14
13
12
15
15
12
11
11
11
13
14
12
14
15
14
Feels °C
4
8
8
7
11
10
9
12
12
9
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
12
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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