Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SSE swell with 2,653 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 29 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 7s period with NNE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.8m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 3.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 11s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sat 29th Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Last Chance.
We’ve got a solid run of surf shaping up, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The first proper call is on Thursday morning, the 27th of August. The water is sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good wetsuit.
The standout session, no doubt, is that Thursday morning. We’ve got a clean 4ft swell rolling in from the south with a very long 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with the combined swell energy reading 1033, there’s plenty of push behind it. The wind is a light cross-off, so the faces are going to be tidy. This is a point break, and that long period will really shine here, offering up some nice, lined-up waves. It’s advanced territory, so it’s for the experienced crew only.
Now, the rest of that week is a bit of a write-off. Friday through Sunday the swell drops off and the wind gets messy. We see a small pulse building again on Monday, the 31st of August. Monday morning sees a solid 8ft south swell, but with a short 9-second period, it’s a bit of a mush burger. The wind is offshore and clean, scoring a 1272 on the combined energy, so there’s plenty of water moving. It’s big, but that short period will make it hard work over 8ft, so only the experts should be out there. The afternoon cleans up slightly with a longer 12-second period and lighter cross-off wind, making it a bit more manageable at 7ft.
Tuesday, the 1st of September, is still big, with 7ft to 8ft south swell, but the wind is cross or cross-on, which will chop it up. The energy is huge, hitting 2111 on Tuesday afternoon, but it’s not going to be pretty.
After that, the swell fades. Wednesday morning the 2nd of September has some clean 6ft leftovers, but it’s dropping. From the 4th of September onward, it’s just tiny, inconsistent waves, with a few days of nothing worthwhile. There’s a glimmer on the 9th of September, Wednesday morning, when the wind goes glassy and we get a clean 4ft south swell with a 12-second period. That’s a nice surprise, but it’s a long way out and the rest of the week is flat, so don’t bank on it.
Overall, the best bet is that Thursday morning, the 27th of August. Get on it early.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun morning, strong winds from the SW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 17 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | ENE 7 | S 14 | S 9 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1021 | 1680 | 1718 | 861 | 499 | 333 | 193 | 140 | 109 | 90 | 47 | 178 | 1021 | 1310 | 1667 | 1151 | 2088 | 1435 | 960 | 820 | 511 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — |
 | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 19 | 16 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 17 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | ENE 7 | S 14 | S 17 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 |
| kJ | 1021 | 1680 | 1718 | 861 | 499 | 333 | 193 | 140 | 86 | 47 | 47 | 178 | 214 | 1310 | 1667 | 1151 | 2088 | 1435 | 960 | 820 | 511 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | S 5 | ESE 11 | SE 12 | NE 5 | E 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | NE 9 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 9 | NE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 27 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 109 | 90 | 33 | 79 | 32 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 16 | SE 15 | SE 15 | E 9 | SE 13 | SSW 16 | S 15 | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | SSE 10 | SE 11 | NE 9 | SE 11 | — | — | S 21 | NNE 5 | — | SE 12 |
| kJ | 12 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 9 | 4 | — | 6 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | — | — | — | WNW 3 | S 9 | — | W 3 | SSW 12 | — | — | — | — | WNW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | 28 | 20 | 110 | 46 | 53 | 56 | — | — | — | 3 | 1021 | — | 5 | 1909 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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