Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

## The Long Game

The next couple of days are pretty flat and messy, so don’t rush out. Tuesday’s got some size but it’s mostly windslop and cross-off, with rain around. Not worth the paddle. Wednesday morning cleans up with a bit of glass, but the swell drops right out. We’re hanging on until the weekend, honestly.

The real story starts this Sunday, the 13th. We’ve got a proper pulse of south swell showing up, and it’s got some teeth. That’s the standout window. It’s still over a week out, so treat it as a promise with a grommet’s attention span, but the models are singing.

Sunday morning is the pick of the whole run. We’re looking at clean conditions, light west wind, and solid 8ft of south swell. That’s proper size, maybe a bit much for the learners, but for those of us who charge, it’s game on. The energy reading is through the roof, over four figures – this is a real groundswell event. The period is long and powerful, which means it'll push through the lineup better, but keep an eye on the tide. It might wall up a bit. Last Chance (this region) is exposed to that south energy, and with the west-northwest flow, it should be handling it well. Some crowds are possible, so get in early.

Monday morning, the 14th, is still very, very good. Slightly smaller at 7ft, but it’s glassy as a mirror. If you can’t make Sunday, that’s your window.

After that, things back way off. Tuesday the 15th has some waist-high leftovers with clean morning conditions, but it’s not a day to travel for. The following Saturday the 19th shows a bit of a rebound, with a punchy 6ft on the afternoon, but the winds get a bit weird. The real next big thing is further out – the 18th. The Friday before that is another solid day with 8ft forecasts, but that’s a long way off, so just a heads-up.

The run from the 16th to the 21st is mostly small and mixed at best. There are a couple of clean mornings, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

Right now, the water temp is sitting around 55°, but that’s almost a degree and a half cooler than it should be for this time of year. It’s not a freeze-out, but you’ll want the hood and gloves.

One last thing – the 22nd and 23rd show some decent swell, but that 25 mph wind is going to shred it to bits. That’s more of a kiteboarding session unless the storm tracks perfectly. For now, circle Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th on the calendar. That’s the good stuff.

Rusty.

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