Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

First up, the whole 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of surf showing, but there are some real gaps and a lot of days where the conditions are just gonna be a fight. The real standout is sitting right in the middle of the window, around the 21st of August. Don't get too excited about the start, because we’re looking at a couple of days of messy, blown-out swell first.

The first couple of days, Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, are pretty much a washout for clean surfing. We’ve got a strong SW breeze and a ton of energy in the water – Tuesday morning is showing 1248 combined energy, and Wednesday morning it’s jumping up to 4861. That’s powerful, but it’s too big and too raw for Last Chance (Big Island) to handle. Wednesday morning’s swell is predicted at 4.5m from the SSE, and that’s way over the limit for this place. It’s just going to be a washing machine. The wind is cross-off, but with that size, it’s not going to be any kind of fun.

Thursday the 20th is still pretty average – wave heights around 2m, but the energy is dropping, and the conditions are still marginal. Not worth paddling out for anything special.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting.

The standout is the morning of Friday, the 21st of August. The wind drops right out – we’re talking 3 mph from the NNW, which is cross-off but essentially glassy. Combined energy is still solid at 1133, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the south with a long 13-second period. This is prime Last Chance. That long-period south groundswell is going to wrap in perfectly and the lack of wind will make it absolutely pristine. This is the pick of the whole forecast, hands down. The water temperature is a bit colder than average for this time of year, 54°F with a -3°F anomaly, so you’ll want the hood, but the surf will be worth it. This is the one to plan for.

The afternoon of Friday is still rideable but the wind swings onshore, and the period gets super long – 15 seconds – which can make it a little too straight at certain spots. Still, the morning is the clear winner.

After Friday, the surf backs right off. Saturday the 22nd has some small, clean waves, with the wind going offshore and light, around 3ft, but it’s pretty weak. Sunday the 23rd is almost flat, with energy dropping below 119. This marks the start of a real lull that runs through to the following Thursday. There are small, clean lumps around Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th of August, but they’re mostly under 4ft, and the energy is weak. It’s more of a longboard or a log session than anything serious.

The swell picks up again on Friday the 28th – we’re looking at 6ft from the SSE with a 9-second period and light offshore wind in the morning. It’s got some push, but it’s not the quality of that Friday the 21st.

The final note for the first week of September shows a pulse of longer-period south swell around the 1st and 2nd, with the 2nd seeing a nice 4ft SSW groundswell at 17 seconds and clean cross-off winds. It’s promising, but it’s far out, so treat it as a maybe.

A quick word on the break itself: Last Chance is a fairly consistent point break, so it’s not like it’s a rare treat when it turns on, but it does need the right conditions. It can get crowded sometimes, especially when it’s good, so be prepared to share the peak.

So, in short: don’t bother with the first few days. Your best bet by a long shot is the early session on Friday, the 21st of August. After that, it’s a waiting game, with a possible, less certain, fun morning on the 2nd of September.

Rusty.

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