Last Chance Surf Break

Lat Long: 39.00° S 177.90° E

Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 20 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Last Chance sea temperature is
12.9° C
1.3° 

Last Chance surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Last Chance surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 12s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, S swell with 6,980 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:

The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 9s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Mon 20th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 19s
Best Surf 9PM (Sun 26th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 12s
Most Powerful12AM (Mon 27th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.

The forecast opens with a proper swell hitting Last Chance. This is an exposed point break, and right from Monday the 20th of July, we’re looking at a solid S swell pushing 6 ft, with a very long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with a combined energy reading of 1631 (moderate wave energy), there’s plenty of grunt. The water’s sitting at 55°, about 2° colder than normal for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a bite to it. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze, keeping things clean for the advanced crew. This is top-shelf, expert-only stuff right out of the gate.

Monday afternoon picks up even more, with the swell jumping to 7 ft, but the tide and conditions get a bit questionable. Still, the period stretches out to 19 seconds – that’s seriously long-period energy that will hold up beautifully on this point. Tuesday morning, the 21st, keeps that 7 ft S swell going with a 16-second period and clean cross-offshore wind. This whole first run is the standout of the entire forecast. For experienced surfers, this is as good as it gets right now.

Things ease off by Wednesday the 22nd. The swell drops to around 4 ft from the SSE with a 12-second period, but the wind turns glassy. The energy drops to 512, so it’s much weaker, but it’ll be clean and fun for a paddle. Not a standout, but a nice breather.

From Thursday the 23rd, the wave heights start to fade away into nothing, and we hit a real quiet spell. By Friday the 24th and into the weekend, we’re looking at tiny surf – 1 ft and less – with no real energy (combined energy down to 49 and 43). That’s a flat spell that lasts a few days.

Then, hold on. Sunday the 26th of July gets interesting again, but in a heavy way. The afternoon brings a massive pulse of S swell at 15 ft with a 12-second period. The combined energy hits 5779 (strong wave energy), but with near-gale-force cross-offshore winds, it’s going to be a messy, dangerous beast. Not for paddling – that’s a kite-surfing setup if anything. Monday the 27th keeps that big swell in the 13 ft range, with winds still strong but clean. That’s for the absolute experts only; well over 8 ft, it’s a no-go zone for anyone else.

After that big pulse, the surf drops back down to 3–5 ft through the end of July and into the start of August. Winds are mostly cross-offshore or offshore, keeping conditions clean. You’ve got some decent 5 ft ESE groundswell on the 29th of July with a 13-second period and offshore wind – a solid, clean window. The 31st of July Friday morning looks promising too, with a 4 ft S swell and a long 17-second period, with clean offshore wind (combined energy 1698 – moderate to strong). That’s a good, sneaky session.

By the time we hit the 1st of August and beyond, it fizzles out again. Swells shrink to under 3 ft, the winds get strong out of the SW, and the energy dries up. The period drops to short, weak stuff. Nothing worth chasing there.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best on offer is that Monday-Tuesday run (20th-21st July) with the solid S groundswell, long period, and clean wind at Last Chance. That’s the call. The late July window on the 29th and 31st is a solid second shout. Everything else is either flat, too windy, or for the die-hards only.

Cheers,
Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Thu night, strong winds from the WSW by Sat morning).

Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
!
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
S
15
2.1
S
19
2.4
S
18
2.1
S
16
1.8
S
15
1.5
S
13
1.2
SSE
12
1.1
S
12
1
S
13
0.8
S
12
0.6
S
12
0.4
SSE
10
0.4
SSE
10
0.3
SSE
9
0.5
NE
5
0.2
S
16
1.2
S
8
0.6
ESE
15
0.8
ESE
14
4.5
S
12
5
S
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1428
3117
3758
2203
1430
824
469
359
334
190
99
35
31
17
11
20
177
152
223
5478
6980
Wind (km/h)
15
SSW
15
SSW
15
SSW
15
WSW
5
ESE
10
NNW
5
WSW
5
SE
5
W
10
N
15
NE
10
NNW
20
N
20
NNW
25
WNW
40
WSW
20
SW
25
NW
25
W
55
SSW
35
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
glassy
glassy
off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
10:17AM1.72m
10:42PM1.74m
11:07AM1.68m
11:33PM1.68m
11:59AM1.65m
00:24AM1.62m
12:54PM1.62m
1:14AM1.58m
1:46PM1.61m
2:03AM1.55m
2:36PM1.59m
2:51AM1.51m
3:22PM1.58m
Low Tide
4:30PM0.21m
5:02AM0.20m
5:23PM0.29m
5:51AM0.28m
6:15PM0.36m
6:39AM0.36m
7:08PM0.42m
7:27AM0.42m
8:00PM0.47m
8:15AM0.47m
8:50PM0.50m
9:04AM0.48m
9:37PM0.50m
cloud
light rain
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:07
5:08
5:09
5:09
5:10
5:12
5:13
 mm
1
1
4
2
Temp °C
11
11
10
10
10
9
10
11
9
12
13
11
14
14
13
10
11
12
9
9
7
Feels °C
7
7
6
8
8
6
8
9
7
8
9
7
9
9
8
2
5
6
3
-2
-3
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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