Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 13s period, SE swell with 1,729 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 25 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.3m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sat 25th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, your local surf reporter, looking at the forecast for Last Chance.
To be straight with you, the first few days are a total write-off. Friday the 24th through Sunday the 27th have some swell, but it’s all crossed up with messy, moderate winds. The wave energy is there, but the quality is just not there. It's a frustrating start, but hang tight, because the real story is next week.
The standout session is the morning of Sunday, August 2nd. We’ve got a clean 8ft swell from the south with a short 8-second period, and the wind is dead calm, glassy. The wave energy is pumping hard. This is an excellent window for experienced surfers only, as that size is well over the 8ft mark and will be powerful. The Sunday morning glass-off is a rare treat.
Another one to circle on the calendar is the morning of Saturday, August 8th. That’s a full ten days out, so keep an eye on it, but the forecast is promising. We’re looking at a clean 8ft swell from the south with a 9-second period, and light offshore winds from the west. The energy is strong. Again, this is expert territory size-wise, but the conditions are lining up for a proper session.
The water temp is sitting at 55° which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don't forget a good hood and booties if you're paddling out at Last Chance.
For the rest of the window, there are glimpses of hope. The mornings of July 31st and August 3rd look clean with smaller, more manageable 4ft and 5ft swells, respectively. But the wind is a bit variable, so you’ll have to pick your moment. The end of the forecast period gets sloppy again with a big, messy, cross-onshore blow from the 5th of August onwards.
So, to sum it up: the first few days are a bust, but the morning of Sunday, August 2nd is the absolute standout for the big-wave crew. The morning of Saturday, August 8th is a long-range, promising option. The rest is a mixed bag that needs a picky eye.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 6°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | E 8 | E 11 | E 12 | E 11 | ESE 16 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 32 | 33 | 110 | 169 | 202 | 277 | 529 | 539 | 507 | 1545 | 1404 | 1729 | 1551 | 1452 | 1274 | 968 | 787 | 634 | 609 | 579 | 472 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | 3:22PM1.58m | 3:37AM1.48m | 4:08PM1.56m | 4:23AM1.45m | 4:53PM1.55m | 5:09AM1.43m | 5:37PM1.55m | 5:56AM1.42m | 6:22PM1.55m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | 9:53AM0.48m | 10:23PM0.49m | 10:40AM0.45m | 11:08PM0.46m | 11:24AM0.41m | 11:53PM0.41m | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — |
 | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | E 8 | E 11 | E 12 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 12 |
| kJ | 12 | 33 | 110 | 169 | 202 | 144 | 529 | 539 | 507 | 1545 | 1404 | 1729 | 1551 | 1452 | 1274 | 968 | 787 | 634 | 609 | 579 | 472 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | NE 6 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 12 | S 13 | S 11 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 16 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 |
| kJ | 32 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 119 | 277 | 20 | 39 | 33 | 26 | 30 | 23 | 45 | 43 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 132 | 183 | 102 | 56 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | S 16 | SSW 16 | E 13 | SW 14 | — | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | — | — | — | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 10 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 50 | 55 | 49 | — | 33 | 24 | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — | — | 27 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | N 4 | NE 5 | — | SSW 3 | S 6 | S 7 | S 8 | SSE 8 | SSW 8 | S 11 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | NNE 4 | — | — | NW 3 |
| kJ | 2 | 4 | 35 | — | 6 | 206 | 199 | 329 | 378 | 40 | 1023 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 6 | — | — | 5 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 78 | 72 | 54 | 103 | 54 | 31 | 88 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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