Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, cobber, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks. We’re talking about Last Chance, a solid point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell. The water’s sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—so you’ll wanna zip up that wetsuit a little tighter.

The outlook kicks off proper on Friday, August 21st. Friday morning is our first real standout. We’ve got a clean 5-ft swell rolling in from the south with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the NNW at 6 mph. The wave energy is strong (1078), and the conditions are glassy and clean. This is the best on offer early on—excellent for experienced surfers, but at 5-ft, it’s a bit much for beginners. The swell direction matches the optimum (NE) perfectly, so the point will be firing with long, lined-up walls.

Friday afternoon gets a bit messy with a cross-on breeze, so I’d be in the water early.

Saturday morning, August 22nd, still has clean 4-ft south swell, but the energy drops off a lot (445). It’s surfable, but nothing special.

Sunday, August 23rd, is a write-off. The swell drops to 2-ft with weak energy (157), and while the wind is cross-off, there’s just not enough juice. That’s a gap day.

Monday, August 24th, shows a pulse back up. The morning has a clean 5-ft south swell with a shorter 9-second period, but the energy is moderate (407). It’s a decent option, but it’s not the standout.

The real highlight of the first week is Tuesday, August 25th morning. Glassy conditions, 5-ft south swell with a 12-second period, and the energy is solid (587). The wind is dead calm—glass. This is gonna be smooth, clean, and the point will be reeling off some beautiful lines. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get there early for a session you’ll remember.

From Wednesday, August 26th, things taper off again. The swell drops to 2-ft–3-ft with periods all over the place, but the energy is weak. Thursday morning, August 27th, is glassy with a 3-ft south swell and a very long 15-second period—clean, but small. It’s a long-period groundswell, so the point will handle it well, but you’ll be scratching for waves.

Friday, August 28th, and the weekend of August 29th–30th are small and weak. Saturday morning, August 29th, has a clean 3-ft SSE swell, but energy is low (260). Sunday morning, August 30th, is glassy but tiny at 3-ft. The end of August and start of September is a big gap of small, marginal surf.

Now, here’s the wild card. Look at Thursday, September 3rd. We’ve got a massive 16-ft south swell screaming in with a 14-second period and insane energy (9704–9970). The wind is cross-off and strong, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. The point will be closing out and dangerous—only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s a real risk. This is not a recommendation for the average punter.

But hold on. Friday, September 4th morning is the real long-range standout. The swell drops to a still-very-chunky 10-ft SSE with a 14-second period, energy is huge (3758), and the wind is dead calm—glassy. This is excellent for experienced surfers only. The point will be handling that big groundswell beautifully, with long, powerful walls. The offshore on Saturday morning, September 5th, is also clean with 5-ft SSE swell, but Friday morning is the session to circle in your calendar.

So, to sum it up: get on Tuesday morning, August 25th, for the best of the first week. And if you’re brave, keep an eye on Friday, September 4th morning—but that’s a long way off and the forecast could change. For the rest of it, there are long gaps of small or blown-out conditions.

Rusty.

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