Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, S swell with 8,205 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.0m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 14s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at what Last Chance has on offer over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some proper junk early on that you’ll want to avoid, but there’s a real window of clean, quality surf hiding in there if you’re patient.
The opening stretch is rough. We’re looking at a couple of days of poor surf, with strong winds and messy conditions. Sunday and Monday are write-offs, with building swell but absolutely terrible wind. It’s just not worth paddling out. Tuesday and Wednesday stay average, with the swell getting bigger, but the wind and rain are going to keep things ugly. We’ll see a big spike on Wednesday morning, with the swell predicted to be too big for this break, hitting around 16ft with a 12-second period. That’s a lot of water moving, and the energy reading is strong at 6882. It’s not for the faint of heart.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Look to Thursday the 20th, as the winds start to ease off, but it’s still a bit average. The real standout arrives on Friday morning, the 21st. The sky clears, and the wind drops to nothing – pure glass. The swell settles to a clean 5ft from the SSE with an 11-second period, and the energy is moderate at 748. It’s not the biggest, but the conditions are going to be as good as it gets. The morning of Saturday the 22nd is also looking nice, with light winds and clean 4ft surf, but Friday morning is the pick.
The surf drops right off after that into the middle of the following week, with only small, weak waves. It’s a flat spell for a few days, so don’t get your hopes up. But then, things get seriously interesting for the long-range. Fast forward to Saturday the 29th. The forecast is showing a solid 10ft groundswell from the south with a very long 16-second period, and the winds are forecast to be glassy. The energy is strong, at 5345, and it’s being predicted as exceptional conditions for expert surfers. This is the big one on the horizon, but it’s over a week away, so treat it as promising but not a sure thing just yet.
The water temp is about average for this time of year, which is something.
So, the plan is simple. Skip the early junk, get out there Friday morning for some clean, fun waves. Then, keep an eye on that Saturday the 29th – if it comes together as forecast, that could be a proper session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 43mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat night, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Sat night, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Tue night, calm by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 8 | E 9 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 14 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 11 | S 17 | S 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 668 | 313 | 252 | 2468 | 2629 | 1957 | 1377 | 1106 | 2783 | 8205 | 6850 | 4746 | 4688 | 1133 | 721 | 549 | 619 | 1519 | 1589 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:11AM1.75m | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | 11:22AM1.67m | 11:48PM1.62m | 12:14PM1.62m | 00:35AM1.57m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:02AM0.11m | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | 5:15AM0.36m | 5:41PM0.40m | 6:03AM0.41m | 6:30PM0.44m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  |  |  | | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — |
mm | 9 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 2 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 8 | E 9 | ESE 8 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | — | SE 14 | SE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 11 | S 17 | S 16 |
| kJ | 668 | 313 | 252 | 380 | 279 | 268 | 108 | 26 | 30 | — | 32 | 29 | 4688 | 1133 | 721 | 549 | 619 | 1519 | 1589 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 17 | NE 8 | SE 15 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 13 | — | — | SE 8 | SE 9 | S 16 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 |
| kJ | 98 | 214 | 55 | 9 | 302 | 273 | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | — | — | 201 | 93 | 129 | 88 | 59 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SE 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 12 | — | — | E 16 |
| kJ | — | 344 | 229 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 5 | SSW 8 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | S 14 | SSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 87 | 910 | 2468 | 2629 | 1957 | 1377 | 1106 | 2783 | 8205 | 6850 | 4746 | 5545 | 2574 | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 103 | 141 | 276 | 153 | 153 | 86 | 149 | 271 | 160 | 160 | 102 | 90 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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