Last Chance Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for our spot, Last Chance. This is an advanced point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, with an optimum direction from the northeast. Right now, the water temp is sitting at about 55°, which is a touch cooler than normal for this time of year – nothing too wild, just a hint of autumn in the water.

The first few days are a bit of a letdown, if I’m honest. Wednesday morning the 9th has some glassy conditions with that 5ft swell from the southeast, but the energy is only moderate and the period is a short 8 seconds. It’s surfable, but the real juice is missing. Wednesday afternoon gets messy with a cross-on wind, and Thursday stays small and ordinary. Friday and Saturday are a bit of a washout for quality waves, with some long-period energy but messy wind or small size.

Then, hold onto your board. Sunday morning the 13th is the standout of the whole run. We’ve got a solid 8ft swell from the south with a 14-second period, which is proper groundswell. The energy is very strong, and the wind is offshore from the WSW. That’s going to groom those point break walls into some clean, powerful lines. This is big enough that it’s only for the experienced crew – beginners would be in over their heads. The afternoon stays clean but the wind picks up, so get on it early.

Monday the 14th drops off quickly with crossing wind and choppy conditions, and the rest of that week has a few small, clean windows but nothing to write home about. Tuesday morning the 15th is a small, glassy 3ft from the south with a 12-second period, a nice little session if you’re keen, but not a standout.

We get a long gap of small, poor surf through the 16th, 17th, and 18th. Friday afternoon the 18th does have a glassy, cross-off window with a 2ft swell and a very long 18-second period, but at that size, it’s more of a longboard glider than a proper wave.

Saturday the 19th brings a bit of a pulse with a 4ft swell from the south and a 15-second period, but the wind is fresh and cross-off, so it’ll be clean but a bit bumpy. The energy is strong, but the quality is just okay.

The real second look comes on Wednesday the 23rd. That morning, we’ve got a 3ft swell from the south with a 20-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell that will wrap into the point nicely. The water is glassy with a light cross-off, and the energy is very strong. For a point break, that long period is a dream, giving you long, lined-up walls. It’s clean, but it’s not huge, so a wide range of surfers can handle it. The afternoon gets a bit sloppy with a cross-on wind and an 8ft bump, so that’s more for the experts and a bit of a mess.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Sunday morning the 13th for the biggest, most powerful clean swell of the run. The second look is Wednesday morning the 23rd for a clean, lined-up, long-period groundswell. Everything else is small, mixed, or windy. Keep your eyes on the sky, and remember, at a spot like this, the forecasts can always change for the better.

Rusty.

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