Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SSE swell with 3,287 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 30 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 11s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 30) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 12s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Sun 30th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming down the pipe for Last Chance. This is a point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell. It’s an advanced wave, so keep that in mind. The water temp is about average for this time of year.
Right now, it’s pretty quiet. The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 30th and Sunday the 31st mornings are seeing poor conditions with small, weak swell and nothing to get excited about. Hang tight.
Monday the 31st afternoon, things take a turn. We get a jump in swell to 6ft from the south with a short period of 9 seconds. The wind goes glassy, dead calm. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1109. That’s going to be clean and punchy, but that short period means it might be a bit crumbly on the face. Still, for experienced surfers, that Monday afternoon window is the first real standout.
Tuesday the 1st of September morning gets messy with strong wind, but Tuesday afternoon sees a big southerly swell building to 10ft with a period of 13 seconds. The energy is very strong at 2791. It’s clean but that size is for experts only.
The real gem of this whole outlook lands on Wednesday the 2nd of September morning. Glassy conditions with a light NNW breeze, a solid 8ft southerly swell at 12 seconds. The energy is pumping hard at 1905. This is prime, clean, powerful point surf. If you’re experienced, you do not want to miss that session. Thursday the 3rd in the morning is also excellent, with 6ft southerly swell and a long 14-second period, super clean under light offshore winds and energy at 1123. That’s a gem too.
We get a bit of a lull after that until Sunday the 6th of September. Sunday morning comes back with a big 7ft southerly swell and an extra long 16-second period. Energy is very strong at 2216. The wind is light and clean, but that 16-second period means it might be a bit too straight for the point, so it could be a little tricky. Still a serious day for the experts.
Then we’ve got another big pulse arriving on Friday the 11th of September. Friday morning shows a 10ft southerly swell, but with a short period of 8 seconds, clean under offshore wind and energy at 1081. It will be a powerful wall of water, but it’s going to be a bit of a freight train, suited to those who know what they’re doing. That’s the last big shout for this outlook, and it's a long range call so keep an eye on it.
Overall, the standout sessions for the best quality and clean conditions are Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd of September mornings. Don’t sleep on them.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Mon morning). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Tue morning, calm by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 13 | S 17 | S 10 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 193 | 200 | 138 | 90 | 33 | 80 | 346 | 518 | 1136 | 1012 | 2225 | 1933 | 2023 | 1871 | 2972 | 1335 | 683 | 285 | 123 | 82 | 656 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | 8:29AM1.65m | 8:52PM1.69m | 9:13AM1.70m | 9:40PM1.69m | 9:59AM1.73m | 10:30PM1.68m | 10:50AM1.74m | 11:22PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | 2:37PM0.24m | 3:05AM0.23m | 3:28PM0.25m | 3:52AM0.23m | 4:20PM0.25m | 4:42AM0.24m | 5:13PM0.25m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | |  |  | | | |  | | | |  | | | |
 | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — |
mm | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | NE 7 | NE 9 | S 17 | S 10 | S 13 | NE 10 | ENE 10 | S 12 | S 13 | SSE 13 | S 16 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 9 |
| kJ | 193 | 200 | 138 | 90 | 22 | 79 | 346 | 518 | 1136 | 25 | 18 | 1933 | 2023 | 1871 | 2972 | 1335 | 683 | 285 | 123 | 82 | 656 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SSE 10 | S 13 | ENE 9 | S 14 | NE 9 | SE 12 | — | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | NNE 4 | ENE 10 |
| kJ | 17 | 22 | 33 | 18 | 33 | 80 | 49 | 388 | 20 | 6 | — | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 13 | SSW 12 | S 15 | S 20 | ENE 8 | SSW 5 | SE 12 | ENE 9 | SE 11 | — | S 24 | — | — | SE 11 | — | — | SE 11 | NE 11 | SE 12 | ENE 10 | S 16 |
| kJ | 27 | 28 | 17 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 5 | — | 11 | — | — | 5 | — | — | 5 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 6 | NNE 6 | — | — | — | S 8 | — | WNW 3 | S 13 | S 12 | — | — | — | NE 9 | NNE 10 | NW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | WNW 3 | — |
| kJ | 43 | 56 | 85 | — | — | — | 272 | — | 6 | 1012 | 2225 | — | — | — | 21 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 11 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 54 | 88 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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