
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 13s period, S swell with 8,337 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 12s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 7s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Wed 5th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
We’ve got a solid run of surf at Last Chance, a point break that can handle a good swell. The first real action kicks off Sunday morning, August 2nd, with a clean 8ft SSE swell pushing in with a period of 12 seconds. The combined swell energy is chunky at 1784, so there’s plenty of power. Water temp is 55°, which feels a bit colder than usual for this time of year. Winds are light offshore, making for some clean, lined-up waves. This is advanced territory though – that size and energy isn't for the faint-hearted, but for the experienced crew, it’s going to be a standout session.
Sunday afternoon the swell drops a little to 7ft, still clean with a light cross-off breeze. Good, but the morning is the real pick.
Monday the 3rd keeps things fun. A 5ft SSE swell in the morning keeps the energy moderate at 605, and the waves are clean. By the afternoon it’s dropping to 4ft, so the morning is your window.
Tuesday the 4th is a write-off. A big 12ft to 16ft swell arrives, but it’s blowing 25-31 mph with light rain. The wave energy jumps to 6945, but the wind and messy conditions make it one for the kites, not a paddle session. Same goes for Wednesday the 5th – big, unruly, not worth the hassle.
Thursday the 6th is a return to form. Morning sees a 8ft SSE swell with an offshore breeze and clean conditions. The energy is 1324, so there’s plenty of push. This is your second standout of the run. The afternoon still clean but a little smaller.
Friday the 7th offers a 5ft morning with a gentle offshore, but keep an eye on Friday afternoon – a 5ft SSE swell rolls in with a very long 17-second period. That’s groundswell, and it’ll bend in nicely around the point, offering some long, drawn-out walls. The energy is 1703, so don’t let the height fool you; there’s plenty of punch. The morning glass on Saturday the 8th is pure joy: 6ft, glassy, SSE groundswell at 13 seconds. Clean, smooth, and the offshore wind is dead calm. This is a major positive – get out there early.
After that, things get smaller and wind turns onshore or cross-shore. By the second week, it’s a bit of a fade out. From the 10th through to the 13th, we’re looking at knee-to-waist high junk with choppy conditions and weak energy in the 100-400 range. Nothing to get excited about. There’s a slight bump on the 14th with a 5ft NE swell, but the period is short and the wind is cross, so it’s messy.
The 15th offers a clean 4ft morning, but it’s small. The real last chance comes on Monday the 17th, with a 8ft S swell arriving. The period is short at 8 seconds, and the wind is cross-off, but the combined energy is 880. It’s a bit of a gamble that far out, but if it cleans up, it could be a fun, punchy session for the experienced crew.
So, the true standouts are the morning of Sunday the 2nd and the morning of Thursday the 6th. The rest is a mix of good, clean smaller waves, and a few days of blown-out junk. Overall, it’s a solid window for the advanced surfer at Last Chance.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Wed night, min 5°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, light winds from the WNW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | S 8 | S 12 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 345 | 511 | 1563 | 6939 | 6957 | 5385 | 3517 | 2249 | 1261 | 1011 | 590 | 348 | 1230 | 2111 | 1103 | 774 | 581 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | 1:01PM1.74m | 1:29AM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | 6:46AM0.27m | 7:22PM0.29m | ||||||||
7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | |
— | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -1 | -5 | -4 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | — | — | E 18 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SE 10 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
1735 | 1104 | 787 | 551 | 345 | 511 | 6 | 6 | — | — | 6 | 2249 | 1261 | 1011 | 590 | 348 | 1230 | 2111 | 1103 | 774 | 581 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | S 13 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 16 | SE 15 | SE 10 | SE 14 | S 10 | SSE 10 | E 15 | E 14 | NE 13 | S 18 |
10 | 85 | 8 | 37 | 84 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 57 | 356 | 46 | 125 | 411 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 16 | NE 15 | SE 12 | ENE 13 | S 20 | NE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 18 | E 18 | SE 14 | E 16 | S 19 | ESE 13 | NE 14 | — | NE 10 | E 13 |
39 | 8 | 25 | 17 | 69 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | 6 | 66 | 5 | 190 | 62 | 8 | — | 4 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | S 8 | S 12 | S 13 | S 13 | SSE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 76 | 1563 | 6939 | 6957 | 5385 | 3517 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 287 | 160 | 106 | 120 | 31 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











