Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 25 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 31 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, S swell with 4,153 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 26 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 26) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 4.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 31) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Wed 26th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in. Let's look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks. There's only one spot worth talking about, and it's got some serious potential if you pick your moment right.
The main story is a slow start, then a massive pulse of S swell and offshores later on. The first few days are pretty average, but there's a window that could be absolutely world-class if you're an experienced surfer.
We start with Last Chance, a NE-exposed point that doesn't like it if the swell is too straight. The water temp is sitting at 53.2°, which is a bit colder than normal for the time of year, so bring a good hood and booties. The first real standout windows kick off on the morning of Wednesday the 26th. It's small, only 3.3ft of S swell, but the period is a crazy 18 seconds—that's a long period groundswell. The wind is a light NNW cross-off, so it'll be clean. The energy is moderate (637), so don't expect it to be pumping, but the shape will be there.
The next real highlight is the morning of Wednesday the 2nd of September. This is the pick of the bunch. The swell builds to 6.2ft from the SSE, with a very long 18-second period, and the wave energy is strong (2303). The forecast says clear skies and a light NW cross-off wind. For a point break, this is about as good as it gets. It’s right in the middle of the "expert only" range, so this one is strictly for the experienced crew. The crowd profile suggests it can get busy, so get down early. That’s your session.
After that, it drops off. The big 14.8ft swell on the 31st of August is a mess, with a strong breeze creating a messy cross-chop. The S wind on the 5th of September blows out the small leftover 3.3ft swell. The very end of the window, on the 8th of September, has a 7.5ft swell, but the onshore wind kills the quality. It's a no-go.
So, to sum it up: Get ready for Wednesday morning the 2nd of September at Last Chance. That's the one.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat night, strong winds from the SSW by Sun night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 15 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 18 | S 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | S 10 | ENE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 10 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 290 | 434 | 600 | 513 | 267 | 1357 | 1881 | 1540 | 849 | 492 | 313 | 189 | 143 | 140 | 66 | 50 | 68 | 4103 | 3891 | 1985 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:28PM1.49m | 3:46AM1.38m | 4:13PM1.49m | 4:33AM1.38m | 4:59PM1.50m | 5:22AM1.41m | 5:47PM1.53m | 6:11AM1.46m | 6:33PM1.57m | 6:58AM1.52m | 7:20PM1.62m | 7:44AM1.59m | 8:05PM1.66m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:43PM0.43m | 10:00AM0.41m | 10:29PM0.39m | 10:48AM0.36m | 11:15PM0.34m | 11:32AM0.32m | 00:03AM0.30m | 12:17PM0.28m | 00:49AM0.26m | 1:02PM0.25m | 1:35AM0.24m | 1:48PM0.24m | 2:20AM0.23m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 15 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 18 | S 17 | SSE 15 | SSE 13 | SSE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 9 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | 290 | 434 | 600 | 513 | 267 | 1357 | 1881 | 1540 | 849 | 492 | 313 | 189 | 143 | 140 | 59 | 40 | 68 | 58 | 7 | 1441 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | S 6 | ESE 10 | SE 12 | ESE 15 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 15 | SSE 11 | S 10 | SE 12 | — | NE 10 | S 15 |
| kJ | 55 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 28 | 13 | 78 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 66 | 50 | 5 | — | 4 | 458 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | NNE 10 | NE 10 | NE 10 | SSW 6 | — | ESE 11 | E 16 | SE 15 | — | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | SE 12 | S 21 | S 14 | NE 9 | SSW 17 | — | — | NE 11 |
| kJ | 31 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | 12 | 5 | 9 | — | 19 | 17 | 39 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 27 | — | — | 18 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | S 7 | — | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 5 | NNW 3 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | NW 2 | — | SSW 5 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 109 | — | 12 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 109 | 2 | — | 91 | 4103 | 3891 | 1985 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 84 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 88 | 124 | 153 | 86 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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