
Surf Forecasts:
Last Chance surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 5 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 14s period, S swell with 9,333 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Last Chance this week:
The surf forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Last Chance in the next 16 days are 5.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 8s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 01) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 5th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Last Chance over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, I'm Rusty.
Alright, let's chew over the goods for Last Chance. This is a point break that's open to the swell, and it's a real paddle. The water is sitting at 55°F , which is about 2°F colder than usual for this time of year, so you'll feel that. We've got a 16-day run, but there's a slow start and a whole lot of wind to get through before the real meat shows up.
The first real standout is Wednesday morning, July 29th. The early session is looking sweet. We've got a clean 6ft groundswell from the ESE with a nice 13-second period, and the wind is glassy from the N at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a solid 1075 (moderate wave energy), which is a healthy push. That's proper point-break conditions—clean, lined up, and offering some punch for the experienced crew. The afternoon goes to hell though, as the wind swings NE at 12 mph and turns it to chop.
Then we hit a long dry spell. From Thursday through to the end of the first week, it's a waste. The swell drops, and the wind just mucks it up. We get a bit of relief on Monday morning, August 3rd. The wind goes offshore from the W at a whisper, and we've got a 6ft swell from the S (11-second period) with 1454 energy (moderate wave energy). It's clean, but that's a hefty swell for a point, so it's one for the experienced only.
The next absolute standout is Tuesday, August 4th. This is a big one. Both morning and afternoon are seeing a massive 16ft swell from the S with a 14-second period. The energy numbers are through the roof—8885 and 8560 (very strong wave energy). The wind is clean and cross-off. But here's the thing: 16ft is a monster. The file says it's predicted to be too big for this break. This is strictly for the experts only, and even then, you'd want to be on a gun and know the reef. For the average punter, it's a spectator sport. The next few days are still big, with 10ft and 8ft swells, but the wind stays messy, so that's not a ticket.
We finally get a clean, manageable window on Friday, August 7th. Both morning and afternoon are looking excellent for experienced surfers. We've got a 6ft swell from the SE with a 13-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is 1247 (moderate wave energy). This is about as good as it gets for a point without it being a washing machine. That's the pick of the weekend.
The second week is a complete write-off from the 8th to the 12th of August. The wind is howling out of the SSE and SW at 25-37 mph with squalls, rain, and thunderstorms. The swell is there but it's all over the shop, and the wind is strong enough to make it look more like a kite-surfing zone than a wave. Don't bother.
The 16-day window closes with a glimmer of hope on Thursday, August 13th. The morning is looking clean with a 6ft swell from the ENE (13-second period) and light cross-off winds. The energy is 1096 (moderate wave energy). It's a solid, clean option for the experienced surfer, but it's a long way off.
So, the best on offer is Wednesday morning, July 29th for the glassy, clean start, and Friday, August 7th for the solid, manageable groundswell with clean winds. The big stuff on Tuesday the 4th is the standout for size, but only for the brave.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 7°C on Sat morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat night, calm by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | SE 16 | S 9 | S 9 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | S 11 | SSE 9 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1052 | 933 | 767 | 488 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 119 | 934 | 2048 | 2943 | 1809 | 921 | 813 | 860 | 5769 | 8885 | 8554 | 9333 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:37PM1.55m | 5:56AM1.42m | 6:22PM1.55m | 6:43AM1.44m | 7:06PM1.57m | 7:30AM1.47m | 7:50PM1.58m | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:24AM0.41m | 11:53PM0.41m | 12:05PM0.37m | 00:38AM0.36m | 12:47PM0.33m | 1:23AM0.32m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | ||||||||
7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 10 | SE 16 | SE 14 | NE 16 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | S 20 | ENE 13 | — | NE 12 | SSE 14 |
1052 | 933 | 767 | 488 | 370 | 302 | 202 | 161 | 116 | 56 | 119 | 96 | 10 | 1809 | 921 | 597 | 68 | 16 | — | 6 | 6390 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 14 | S 16 | S 14 | S 14 | NE 7 | NE 6 | SE 15 | SE 16 | E 10 | E 11 | NE 16 | NE 15 | NE 14 | S 22 | NE 13 | — | — | — | — |
19 | 8 | 36 | 176 | 103 | 57 | 54 | 8 | 57 | 119 | 34 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 7 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | S 16 | S 18 | — | NE 12 | NE 12 | S 14 | ESE 15 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 17 | NE 16 | — | NE 15 | S 19 | NE 13 | — | — | — | — | — |
4 | 5 | 56 | — | 5 | 5 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 10 | — | 34 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 3 | NNE 3 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | — | NW 2 | W 5 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 9 | S 12 | — | — | S 11 | SSE 9 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 | S 14 |
— | — | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | — | 1 | 11 | 286 | 934 | 2048 | 2943 | — | — | 813 | 860 | 5769 | 8885 | 8554 | 9333 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 101 | 93 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 101 | 86 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Last Chance Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Last Chance provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Last Chance can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Last Chance surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Last Chance) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Last Chance may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Last Chance is 38 km (24 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










