Wainui Beach - Stockroute Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for our local stretch.

Alright, so for the immediate future, it’s a bit of a slow start. We’ve got a couple of small, clean windows early on, but the real meat of the forecast comes later. There’s a big swell event brewing for the second half of the coming week that’s worth getting excited about, but you’ll need to pick your moment with the wind.

Wainui Beach - Stockroute (beach and reef) is the only spot we’re looking at, so all eyes are here.

We kick off Sunday the 5th of July. It’s small with a 4ft easterly swell, period around 10 seconds. The wind is a light northerly, cross-off, so it’s clean, but the energy is weak (257). Water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Not a standout, but it’s surfable.

Monday the 6th sees more of the same – small 3ft easterly swell in the morning with a light northerly, though the period drops to 8 seconds, making it a bit weak and wobbly. The afternoon gets a touch bigger to 5ft from the east, but the wind swings easterly, bringing a light cross-on that messes with the face.

Now, Tuesday the 7th is where things perk up. Morning session is your first real chance. We get a 4ft easterly swell combined with a WNW offshore wind of 5 km/h (3 mph). That’s glassy, clean conditions. The combined energy is moderate (330). It’s small, but with that offshore breeze, it’s going to be tidy. This is a solid pick for the early part of the week.

Wednesday the 8th is a mixed bag. The morning sees a jump in size to 6ft from the ESE, period 11 seconds – that’s a bit of a longer-period groundswell, which will bring more energy (894). But the wind is a cross-shore from the SSW at 15 km/h (9 mph), so it’s a bit lumpy. Not the best conditions for that size. The afternoon gets worse with stronger cross-winds (25 km/h / 16 mph) and poor surf.

The real event hits Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th. The swell builds significantly. By Friday morning, we’re looking at an 12ft SE swell, period 10 seconds. The combined energy is massive (2474). This is a strong swell, but the wind is a strong cross-shore (40 km/h / 25 mph) from the south, making it a messy, choppy mess. This is purely for experienced crew, and honestly, with those winds, it looks more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers.

Saturday the 11th is still big – 10ft to 13ft from the SSE – but still hammered by strong cross-shore winds (35-40 km/h / 22-25 mph). Poor quality for a wave that size.

We get a bit of a let-up on Sunday the 12th, with the swell dropping to 8ft to 10ft from the SE, but the wind is still a fresh cross-shore (20-30 km/h / 12-19 mph), keeping it lumpy.

The best of the entire outlook lands on Tuesday the 14th of July. This is the standout. The morning brings a clean 5ft SE swell, period 11 seconds, with a WNW offshore wind at only 10 km/h (6 mph). This is glassy, clean, and the longer period (11 seconds) means it’ll have some push and shape. The combined energy is still moderate (580). With the offshore wind and that swell direction being close to the optimum SSE, this break should be firing clean lines. It’s an advanced break, and it’s very consistent, so expect a crowd as it’s a well-known spot. This is your day.

Wednesday the 15th is okay. A 4ft ESE swell with a light cross-off from the NW, but it’s smaller and less powerful than Tuesday.

After that, the surf fades away. From Thursday the 16th through to the end of the forecast (Monday the 20th), we drop into small, weak waves (1ft to 4ft) with poor cross-shore winds. There’s a long gap of about five days with no real recommendations.

So to sum it up: early week offers a few small, clean windows, but the big winner is Tuesday the 14th at Wainui Beach - Stockroute. That offshore wind with a solid, long-period swell is the one to pencil in. The big swell later this week is there for the taking, but you’ll want the wind to cooperate more than it looks like it will.

Keep an eye on the forecast – it’s gonna change.

Stay wet, Rusty.

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