Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – if you’re looking for a clean, fun paddle out at Tauranga Bay over the next couple of weeks, you’re gonna be waiting a long time. The whole period is drowning in heavy, raw energy, with combined swell readings hitting four and even five-digit figures (like 6230, 7649, 7853) which means there’s a *lot* of power in the water. The problem is, most of it is way too big and coming with the wrong wind.

Starting out, Sunday the 30th of August, there’s already a solid 12 ft swell churning, but a howling 25 mph WSW cross-on wind is just shredding the surface. That’s a no-go. Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st of September just get worse – we’re talking 16 ft surf and near-gale force winds. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. Only for the mad men.

We get a brief window Wednesday the 2nd of September morning, where the swell drops to 7 ft from the west with a 14-second period and the wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-on. The energy reading is still high (1948), but the forecast calls it marginal and questionable on the tide. Might be a sneaky session for the brave, but the conditions are far from perfect. Then Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th are back to big, lumpy, and mostly blown out. Saturday the 5th of September morning has a 13 ft west swell with a very long 15-second period, and only a light cross-on breeze – the forecast actually notes the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is simply *too big* for this break. It’s a beast for experts only, and with that long period, the sets will be big and clean on the point, but paddling out will be a mission. The whole first week is a write-off for most of us.

There’s another long gap of poor conditions until we hit Thursday the 10th of September. Now this is a standout – the morning has perfectly glassy conditions, zero wind, with a 10 ft swell from the WSW and a 16-second period. The combined energy is massive (6836), and again the report says the wind and tide are good, but the swell is too big for the break. This is a dawn patrol for the experienced crew only. That glassy, clean surface on a 10 ft groundswell at Tauranga Bay will be a sight to see, but if you’re not comfortable in heavy water, stay on the beach.

The second week sees more of the same theme. Saturday the 12th of September morning has a 15 ft west swell (energy reading 11279 – very strong), with a light 9 mph cross breeze. Once again, it’s flagged as too big for the break. Monday the 14th of September morning offers a 12 ft west swell with a 16-second period and a light 6 mph cross breeze, and the energy is still very high (6987). Again, the call is favorable wind and tide, but the size is overwhelming.

Honestly, for the intermediate surfer, there isn’t a single day in this entire 16-day stretch that I’d call good. The surf is either too big, too windy, or both. If you’re an expert looking for a heavy challenge, the glassy dawn on Thursday the 10th or the clean conditions on Monday the 14th of September are your best shots, but you’ll be threading a needle. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game. The water temp is sitting around 55°F which is pretty normal for this time of year, so the wetsuit stays on.

This is Rusty, signing off. Keep your head down and your eyes on the horizon.

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