Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the surf window for Tauranga Bay.

We’ve got a proper winter swell train lining up, but it’s a bit of a waiting game. The first few days are a write-off – Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are a complete mess thanks to strong onshore winds and big, lumpy conditions. You can forget about it. The real story starts to turn around on Monday morning the 7th.

Monday the 7th is the standout of the entire run. The morning is where it's at. We’ve got a solid groundswell from the WSW, running 6 ft with a long 14-second period, and the wind swings offshore from the east at 12 mph. That combo is going to produce excellent, clean surf for experienced surfers. The swell energy is solid (1810), and that offshore breeze will groom it into proper walls. By the afternoon, it drops to 5 ft, but the wind stays offshore from the ESE and it’ll still be very good. This morning window is the call.

Tuesday the 8th is still nice – smaller at 4 ft to 4 ft from the WSW, 12-second period, with clean conditions thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze. A good fun-size option if the Monday morning was too big for you.

Wednesday morning the 9th is a real treat. It’s glassy – absolutely flat calm wind from the NE at just 3 mph – with a 5 ft WSW swell. That glassy surface on a point-and-beach setup like Tauranga Bay will be as clean as it gets. The afternoon gets a little cross-on, but still rideable.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Thursday the 10th through to Monday the 14th, strong winds and oversized swell take over. Thursday is blown out, Friday the 11th has a massive 16 ft swell (17393 energy) that’s just too big and wild. The weekend of the 12th and 13th is a no-go with near-gale force winds and 18 ft monsters. It’s more of a kite-surfing zone than a paddle zone during that stretch, to be honest.

Things settle down again on Tuesday the 15th. Another glassy morning with light easterly wind and a clean 5 ft, 14-second groundswell. Lovely waves for a mid-week paddle.

The forecast for the second week gets heavy again. From Wednesday the 16th onwards, we’re looking at huge swells – 18 ft to 23 ft – with long periods. While the wind looks manageable at times, the size is just plain dangerous for this break. The end of the run on the 20th still has 18 ft pumping in, but it’s for experts only, and even then, you’d need to be very selective.

To wrap it up: your best bet is Monday morning the 7th for the cleanest, quality groundswell. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are good backups. The rest of the window is either too windy, too big, or both.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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