Surf Forecasts:
Tauranga Bay surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, W swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 20 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, W swell with 6,706 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tauranga Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Tauranga Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tauranga Bay in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 20) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 4ft (1.2m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Sun 20th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tauranga Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Tauranga Bay.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the wait is worth it. The first couple of days are pretty average, with some clean-ish waves on Tuesday morning but the wind gets ugly by the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off – windy and messy, with the swell jumping up to over 10 ft. That’s big, lumpy, and cross-onshore, so not a paddle session. That combined energy is hitting well over 2000 (moderate to strong), but it’s all wind chop.
It’s not until the following Monday the 21st of September that we see the real deal. The morning is absolute glass – you could eat your breakfast off it. A solid 8 ft WSW swell with a 14-second period, groundswell stuff, and the combined energy is in the strong range (3066). That’s a proper expert-only wave. It’s clean, glassy, and powerful. That’s the standout window for the experienced crew.
Then things go a bit sideways again midweek with strong winds and lumpy conditions through the 22nd and 23rd. But hold onto your leash – Thursday the 24th of September is another beauty. Morning has that clean cross-off with ENE wind at just 3 mph, 8 ft of WSW groundswell at 16 seconds (very long period). That’s a dreamy set-up for a point break. The afternoon goes full glass with zero wind. Combined energy is still strong (2450). That’s the best all-round session of the whole run.
There’s another solid morning on Friday the 25th with glassy 5 ft waves – more manageable for intermediates – and then on Saturday the 26th it’s back to clean 6 ft waves with light offshore. Good consistency through that weekend.
Later in the run, Monday the 28th is glassy again with a 4 ft, 16-second groundswell – nice and clean, but smaller. And the final standout is Wednesday the 30th of September – a 7 ft west swell, glassy, with that very long 14-second period, combined energy at 2663 (strong). That’s another expert session.
Water temp is sitting at about 55°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties.
A few of those afternoons see the onshores kick up, so mornings are where it’s at. This is a consistent spot – when the swell and wind line up, Tauranga Bay is as good as it gets.
Stay stoked,
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Tue night, fresh winds from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Sat morning, calm by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | W 11 | WNW 9 | WSW 13 | W 13 | WSW 16 | W 14 | W 15 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | W 15 | WSW 11 | W 14 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | W 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 742 | 615 | 396 | 439 | 673 | 782 | 1074 | 3677 | 1913 | 6156 | 5934 | 4075 | 4310 | 4735 | 5826 | 4932 | 6706 | 5259 | 3066 | 2006 | 1400 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 12:59PM2.75m | 1:18AM2.67m | 1:37PM2.59m | 1:58AM2.48m | 2:19PM2.42m | 2:43AM2.29m | 3:09PM2.25m | 3:41AM2.13m | 4:14PM2.12m | 4:56AM2.04m | 5:34PM2.09m | 6:17AM2.06m | 6:48PM2.17m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:12PM0.34m | 7:31AM0.43m | 7:52PM0.52m | 8:11AM0.63m | 8:37PM0.71m | 8:59AM0.82m | 9:31PM0.88m | 9:58AM0.97m | 10:39PM0.99m | 11:12AM1.03m | 11:57PM0.99m | 12:28PM0.98m | 1:06AM0.88m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | |  |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:23 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:25 | — | — | 6:27 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:29 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | W 11 | WNW 9 | WSW 13 | N 7 | W 10 | W 14 | W 15 | W 15 | W 14 | — | — | — | W 14 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | — |
| kJ | 742 | 615 | 396 | 439 | 673 | 782 | 1074 | 23 | 952 | 6156 | 5934 | 4075 | 4310 | — | — | — | 6706 | 5259 | 3066 | 2006 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 12 | N 12 | W 20 | W 18 | N 11 | WSW 13 | NW 8 | — | WSW 16 | N 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 11 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 547 | 346 | — | 1913 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 12 | N 11 | — | — | — | — | NNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 6 | WSW 10 | W 13 | — | — | — | — | — | W 14 | W 15 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | — | W 13 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 67 | 696 | 3677 | — | — | — | — | — | 4735 | 5826 | 4932 | — | — | — | — | 1400 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 57 | 57 | 29 | 188 | 0 | 159 | 188 | 188 | 189 | 188 | 159 | 189 | 189 | 4 | 0 | 39 | 159 |
Best forecast wave conditions in West Coast South Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tauranga Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tauranga Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tauranga Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tauranga Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tauranga Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tauranga Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in West Coast South Island? If you are looking for accommodation near Tauranga Bay, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in West Coast South Island, consider staying in Nelson which is 161 km (100 miles) away.
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