Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for our stretch of coast.

The first few days are pretty uninspiring, to be honest. We’ve got a bit of small, short-period swell around Thursday the 6th, but it’s weak and the conditions are nothing to write home about. The energy is weak (191), and the swell is only 2ft. It’s surfable but very ordinary, so I’d probably give it a miss unless you’re desperate for a paddle. There’s a slight improvement Friday the 7th as the swell pushes up to 5ft to 7ft, but the wind is up and the period is only 10 seconds, so it’ll be a bit of a battle. The energy is moderate (469 to 911), but the conditions are marginal. Saturday the 8th is similar, with some lumpy, rain-soaked surf and a dropping swell in the afternoon. Still nothing to get excited about.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Sunday the 9th is the first real standout. The swell jumps to a solid 8ft from the NNW with a 10-second period, and the energy is strong (1979). The morning is looking clean with a light NE breeze, and the conditions are rated as excellent for experienced surfers. Tauranga Bay (Tauranga-Bay-Westport) is exposed to the west-southwest, which is its optimum direction, so this could be a proper session. The afternoon goes a bit cross, but the morning window is the one to chase. This is a big, powerful swell, so it’s not for beginners – you need to know what you’re doing.

Monday the 10th calms down a bit with chest-high waves around 4ft from the WSW. The period is a nice and long 14 to 15 seconds, and the wind is glassy. The energy is moderate (906 to 967), and the conditions are expected to be very good. The water temp is 55°, which is about average for this time of year – a touch warmer than the long-term norm but nothing crazy. This is a much more manageable day, good for a fun session on a point or reef. The long period should make for some clean, lined-up waves.

The mid-week gets a bit messy again. Tuesday the 11th has a 20-second period, but the swell is small at 2ft, so it’s a bit of a tease. Wednesday the 12th pushes up to 6ft, but the wind is up and it’s looking junky. By the afternoon, the swell is 10ft from the NNW, which is too big for this break and will be a washing machine. The energy is strong (2707), but it’s not for surfing. Thursday and Friday the 13th and 14th are more of the same – sizeable, wind-affected, and messy. Not great.

Now, the big one. Saturday the 15th is a big, powerful, and dangerous day. The swell is massive – 15ft in the morning and 18ft in the afternoon – with a very strong energy reading (12127). This is way too big for Tauranga Bay, and the wind is cross-shore to cross-on. This is a day to stay well clear of the water unless you’re a big-wave gun looking for a beating. The conditions are not for paddle surfing; this looks more like a kite-surfing day if anything. Sunday the 16th is still huge – 11ft – but with a long period. Again, too big and messy.

The light at the end of the tunnel is Monday the 17th. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft to 8ft from the WSW, with a 14-second period. The energy is still strong (3244 to 2939), but the wind is offshore to cross-off and the conditions are rated as excellent for experienced surfers. This is another standout window. The morning looks particularly clean. Tauranga Bay will be handling this west-southwest swell well, and it should be a proper session. The rest of the week into the 19th and 20th settles down to a more user-friendly 5ft to 5ft with clean, glassy conditions, and the long-period swell will make for some nice, peeling waves.

Looking further out, there’s one more big pulse predicted for Friday the 21st, with a 13ft swell from the west. But it’s too big for this break again, and the energy is massive (6733). The morning is glassy, but it’s just too much water moving. That’s a waiting game for the next day or two after that.

So, to sum it up: the standout windows are Sunday the 9th and Monday the 17th. Both are powerful, clean, and for experienced surfers only. The smaller, fun days are Monday the 10th and the 19th and 20th. There’s a lot of rough and oversized stuff in between, so pick your moments. The water is about average for the time of year, so a good hood and boots are your friends.

Alright, stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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