Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 11 pm Tuesday 01 Jul 2025 NZST
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
12.6° C
(Which is normal for this time of year)


Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 03) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.4m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 2.3m 10s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 04) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 03) at 3PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9AM (Thu 3rd Jul)5ft (1.5m) 8s
Best Surf 3PM (Thu 3rd Jul)6ft (1.9m) 10s
Most Powerful 9PM (Fri 4th Jul)7.5ft (2.3m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Wednesday
02
Thursday
03
Friday
04
Saturday
05
Sunday
06
Monday
07
Tuesday
08
Wednesday
09
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sun
13
NightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.1
NW
0.1
NW
0.1
NW
0.5
N
1.5
N
1.9
NNE
1.7
N
1.3
N
1.9
N
2.1
N
0.9
NNW
1.5
N
0.9
N
0.6
N
0.4
NNW
0.2
NNW
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.2
ENE
0.2
ESE
0.4
NE
0.4
N
1.1
N
1.8
N
1.7
N
2.3
NNE
2.5
NNE
1.8
NNE
1.5
NNW
0.7
NNW
1.2
N
2
NNE
1
N
0.7
N
Period(s) (?)151414581011101010121110998777145346910101010981312777
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy (?)000165517266703611253882482517158642871115000111866025521045139450546724956639211444
Wind
(km/h)
5
SSE
5
S
0
ENE
5
S
5
SE
10
S
5
SSE
10
NE
10
NE
10
NE
10
S
5
ENE
5
SE
5
SE
5
NW
5
SSE
5
SSE
5
N
5
SSE
10
SSE
5
NNW
10
S
5
S
5
NE
5
SSE
5
NE
10
ENE
5
E
5
E
0
SSW
5
S
5
SSW
5
W
10
S
5
S
5
SE
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
cross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
offcross-
off
cross-
off
crosscrosscrosscross-
off
cross-
off
offglassglasscross-
off
offglasscross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
glassglassglassglasscross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
glassglass
High Tide
/ height (m)
2:14AM
3.70
2:42PM
3.54
3:04AM
3.54
3:28PM
3.41
3:58AM
3.42
4:18PM
3.31
4:54AM
3.33
5:18PM
3.26
5:52AM
3.28
6:29PM
3.30
6:48AM
3.28
7:36PM
3.44
7:42AM
3.35
8:29PM
3.62
8:32AM
3.46
9:12PM
3.79
9:18AM
3.61
9:51PM
3.93
10:02AM
3.74
10:29PM
4.03
10:44AM
3.84
11:06PM
4.12
11:26AM
3.88
Low Tide
/ height (m)
8:24AM
1.22
8:31PM
1.29
9:16AM
1.38
9:23PM
1.46
10:12AM
1.49
10:32PM
1.59
11:10AM
1.53
11:45PM
1.64
12:05PM
1.52
12:46AM
1.59
12:55PM
1.48
1:36AM
1.48
1:46PM
1.40
2:20AM
1.35
2:37PM
1.28
3:00AM
1.20
3:27PM
1.13
3:39AM
1.06
4:14PM
0.96
4:18AM
0.94
4:55PM
0.80
4:58AM
0.85
5:33PM
0.68
Wednesday
02
Thursday
03
Friday
04
Saturday
05
Sunday
06
Monday
07
Tuesday
08
Wednesday
09
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sun
13
Sunrise-7:52--7:52--7:52--7:52--7:52--7:52--7:52--7:50--7:50--7:50--7:50--7:50-
Sunset--5:07--5:08--5:08--5:09--5:09--5:10--5:12--5:12--5:13--5:14--5:14--5:15
clearpart cloudpart cloudlight rainheavy rainheavy rainlight rainmod rainrain showersrain showerspart cloudlight raincloudpart cloudpart cloudclearclearclearclearpart cloudpart cloudpart cloudcloudcloudcloudlight rainlight rainlight rainlight raincloudcloudcloudcloudcloudcloudcloud
Rain (mm)
---117265735-1-------------1241-------
Temp. °C810111010101214141415141213129111188979991011111112111314121413
Feels °C (?)691099811141312151311121179966747779991012101113101312

Short Range Forecast: Heavy rain (total 59mm), heaviest during Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 6°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 6-9 Weather Summary Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Long Range Forecast: Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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