Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 6 am Monday 29 Dec 2025 NZDT
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
18.7° C
(Which is 2.6°C warmer than normal for this time of year)


Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Dec 31) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 10s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 2.1m 10s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jan 01) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Monday (Dec 29) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Wed 31st Dec)2.5ft (0.8m) 10s
Best Surf 1AM (Thu 1st Jan)6ft (1.9m) 10s
Most Powerful 4AM (Thu 1st Jan)7ft (2.1m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Short Range Forecast Heavy rain (total 32mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Warm (max 21°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Monday
29
Tuesday
30
Wednesday
31
Thursday
01
Friday
02
Saturday
03
Sunday
04
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.2
N
0.2
N
0.2
N
1.3
N
1.9
NNE
1.9
N
1
N
0.5
N
0.3
N
0.2
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
Period(s) (?)1313131212101110109867713131212121811
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy kJ (?)43331181036076155411318943333362
Wind
(km/h)
5
ESE
25
ESE
25
SE
15
S
10
SSW
10
S
10
SE
0
WNW
5
ESE
15
ENE
5
SE
5
SSE
5
ESE
5
E
10
SE
5
ESE
15
N
10
SE
5
N
15
NNE
5
S
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
offcross-
off
offcross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
off
offglassglasscross-
off
glassglassglassglassoffglasscross-
on
offcross-
on
cross-
on
cross-
off
High Tide
/ height (m)
5:28PM
3.65
6:08AM
3.50
6:32PM
3.67
7:22AM
3.59
7:38PM
3.74
8:38AM
3.76
8:43PM
3.83
9:43AM
4.00
9:45PM
3.97
10:36AM
4.24
10:43PM
4.07
11:22AM
4.40
11:36PM
4.13
Low Tide
/ height (m)
11:15AM
1.27
11:41PM
1.15
12:31PM
1.22
12:47AM
1.12
1:37PM
1.08
1:52AM
1.06
2:38PM
0.93
2:57AM
0.98
3:35PM
0.76
4:00AM
0.84
4:29PM
0.62
4:58AM
0.72
5:19PM
0.53
Monday
29
Tuesday
30
Wednesday
31
Thursday
01
Friday
02
Saturday
03
Sunday
04
Sunrise5:54--5:54--5:54--5:56--5:56--5:58--5:58--
Sunset-9:01--9:01--9:01--9:01--9:02--9:02--9:02-
part cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
heavy rain
cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
Rain (mm)
---323-12322----------
Temp. °C212116141313191717181817181716181815181815
Feels °C (?)151511101111181816181917181815161614161614
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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