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Surf Forecasts:

Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 12 pm Monday 09 Mar 2026 NZDT
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
19.4° C
 (Which is 2.1°C warmer than normal for this time of year)

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Mar 12) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 0.8m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Mar 12) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Mar 10) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Thu 12th Mar)1.5ft (0.4m) 13s
Best Surf10PM (Thu 12th Mar)1.5ft (0.4m) 13s
Most Powerful 7PM (Thu 12th Mar)2.5ft (0.8m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent 
16 DaysHourly
Print Table

Short Range Forecast Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 18°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 20°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Monday
09
Tuesday
10
Wednesday
11
Thursday
12
Friday
13
Saturday
14
Sunday
15
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
See all maps
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.2
N
0.1
N
0.2
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.2
N
0.5
N
0.4
N
0.6
N
0.4
N
0.4
N
0.9
N
0.2
N
0.4
N
0.2
NNW
1
NW
0.2
N
0.2
NNW
0.2
NNW
Period(s) (?)11910101612147671513117169116141415
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy kJ (?)92825344221415551377420251158172022
Wind
(km/h)
0
NNW
15
NE
10
SE
5
SE
5
N
10
SSE
5
SW
10
N
5
SSW
5
WNW
15
NNE
10
N
15
N
0
S
20
WSW
20
WSW
30
WSW
10
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
glasscrossoffoffcross-
on		cross-
off		glasscross-
on		cross-
off		glasscrosscross-
on		cross-
on		glasscrosscrosscross-
on		cross-
on		cross-
on		cross-
on		cross
High Tide
/ height (m)
2:12PM
3.64
2:30AM
3.65
2:52PM
3.38
3:06AM
3.43
3:40PM
3.13
3:50AM
3.19
4:46PM
2.96
4:59AM
2.96
6:11PM
2.92
6:58AM
2.92
7:30PM
3.04
8:23AM
3.14
8:32PM
3.25
Low Tide
/ height (m)
8:13PM
1.06
8:17AM
1.27
8:53PM
1.29
9:03AM
1.53
9:41PM
1.51
10:13AM
1.73
10:44PM
1.68
11:50AM
1.81
12:09AM
1.73
1:17PM
1.71
1:40AM
1.58
2:20PM
1.51
2:45AM
1.29
Monday
09
Tuesday
10
Wednesday
11
Thursday
12
Friday
13
Saturday
14
Sunday
15
Sunrise7:16--7:16--7:18--7:18--7:20--7:20--7:22--
Sunset-7:58--7:55--7:54--7:52--7:51--7:50--7:47-
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
Rain (mm)
-11--------951-------
Temp. °C181712161613161713171917192018191917212217
Feels °C (?)17169141410131512161718192315131313161713
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.

View detailed surf forecast for Outer Cut at:
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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