Outer Cut Surf Break

Lat Long: 41.26° S 173.26° E

Outer Cut Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 29 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
12.6°C
0.5° 

Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Outer Cut surf forecast from 29 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 7s period, NNW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 7s period, NNW swell with 198 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 7s period with NNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 7s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 1.5m 7s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 8s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 03) at 6AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep)5ft (1.5m) 7s
Best Surf 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep)5ft (1.5m) 7s
Most Powerful 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep)5ft (1.5m) 7s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.


Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
NNW
7
0.2
N
8
0.7
NW
6
0.4
NNW
4
0.4
NW
4
0.5
NNW
5
0.4
NNW
7
0.4
NNW
7
0.2
NNW
14
0.2
NNW
15
0.1
N
18
0.7
NNW
5
1.3
NNW
6
1
N
7
0.9
NNW
6
0.7
NNW
7
0.8
NW
6
0.9
NNW
7
0.6
NNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
18
5
34
6
5
12
18
20
20
22
6
23
127
106
62
54
43
84
44
Wind (km/h)
20
SW
15
WSW
25
WSW
30
SW
15
W
25
W
15
W
15
SW
15
W
10
WSW
15
SW
15
W
10
WNW
10
SW
10
NNW
0
WSW
5
WSW
25
WSW
15
WSW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
on
cross
cross-on
glassy
cross
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
10:44PM4.23m
11:10AM4.01m
11:17PM4.27m
11:46AM4.05m
11:52PM4.22m
12:20PM4.02m
00:29AM4.09m
12:55PM3.93m
1:10AM3.90m
1:33PM3.76m
1:58AM3.66m
2:17PM3.53m
2:56AM3.42m
Low Tide
4:42AM0.57m
5:03PM0.45m
5:15AM0.48m
5:36PM0.47m
5:49AM0.49m
6:09PM0.55m
6:26AM0.61m
6:47PM0.72m
7:07AM0.80m
7:31PM0.95m
7:56AM1.04m
8:32PM1.22m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:48
6:47
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
 mm
Temp °C
9
15
16
13
14
13
12
13
13
8
14
16
12
16
16
12
16
14
11
Feels °C
6
11
11
6
7
7
6
8
8
4
10
12
11
12
13
11
12
8
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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