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Surf Forecasts:

Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 6 pm Tuesday 25 Nov 2025 NZDT
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
18.7° C
 (Which is 4.4°C warmer than normal for this time of year)

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Nov 27) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 2.2m 7s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Nov 30) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 7s period and expected on Monday (Dec 01) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Thu 27th Nov)5.5ft (1.7m) 7s
Best Surf10PM (Sun 30th Nov)7ft (2.2m) 7s
Most Powerful10PM (Sun 30th Nov)7ft (2.2m) 7s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent 
12 DaysHourly
Print Table

Short Range Forecast Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri morning, min 14°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sun afternoon. Warm (max 22°C on Sat morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tue
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
01
PMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
See all maps
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.1
N
0.1
N
1.7
N
1.8
N
1.7
NNW
1.3
N
1.8
N
1.4
NNW
0.7
N
0.9
NNW
0.6
N
0.4
NNW
0.8
NNW
0.3
NNW
0.2
NNW
1
N
1.1
N
0.8
N
1.4
NNW
0.7
N
0.5
N
Period(s) (?)161678767775666815578887
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy kJ (?)552633573051243482084743281144132242111782545526
Wind
(km/h)
10
NNE
10
NE
30
N
20
N
5
NE
20
N
25
N
0
SSE
0
W
10
NNE
5
SW
15
WSW
5
NE
20
SW
10
N
15
NE
5
WNW
15
W
10
NNE
5
S
10
NNE
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
crosscrosscross-
on		cross-
on		glasscross-
on		cross-
on		glassglasscross-
on		crosscrosscrosscrosscross-
on		crosscross-
on		cross-
on		cross-
on		cross-
off		cross-
on
High Tide
/ height (m)
2:01AM
3.50
2:13PM
3.59
2:51AM
3.38
3:04PM
3.48
3:48AM
3.29
4:03PM
3.43
4:50AM
3.26
5:09PM
3.46
5:53AM
3.32
6:13PM
3.57
6:56AM
3.47
7:14PM
3.72
7:59AM
3.69
Low Tide
/ height (m)
7:24PM
1.14
8:08AM
1.15
8:12PM
1.26
8:54AM
1.21
9:10PM
1.35
9:44AM
1.28
10:16PM
1.38
10:45AM
1.33
11:27PM
1.30
11:57AM
1.31
12:32AM
1.15
1:07PM
1.16
1:29AM
0.97
Tue
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
01
Sunrise--5:50--5:50--5:50--5:48--5:48--5:48--5:48
Sunset8:36--8:37--8:37--8:38--8:39--8:40--8:42--
cloud
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
Rain (mm)
-645-332-------41----
Temp. °C181717171718181719201722221818171721201617
Feels °C (?)171413151814161918201820221415161818181515
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Latest Updates

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Quiksilver Teams Up With PrimaLoft® For World’s First Thermal Layering System for a Wetsuit.

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View detailed surf forecast for Outer Cut at:
surf-forecast.com

Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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