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Surf Forecasts:

Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 6 pm Sunday 18 Jan 2026 NZDT
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
20.0° C
 (Which is 2.9°C warmer than normal for this time of year)

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jan 24) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 3s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 1.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jan 23) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jan 20) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Sat 24th Jan)1.5ft (0.5m) 12s
Best Surf10AM (Sat 24th Jan)1.5ft (0.5m) 12s
Most Powerful 1AM (Fri 23rd Jan)3.5ft (1.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent 
12 DaysHourly
Print Table

Short Range Forecast Mostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Heavy rain (total 49mm), heaviest during Thu afternoon. Warm (max 22°C on Fri morning, min 12°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Sun
18
Monday
19
Tuesday
20
Wednesday
21
Thursday
22
Friday
23
Saturday
24
PMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
See all maps
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.2
N
0.2
NNE
0.5
N
0.4
NNE
1
N
0.8
N
0.8
N
0.6
N
0.5
N
0.4
N
0.3
N
0.2
N
Period(s) (?)17161615151413131366881412121112111111
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy kJ (?)6554444433429193771961809366392110
Wind
(km/h)
25
ESE
10
SSE
5
SSE
10
ENE
10
SSE
5
SE
10
NE
10
SSE
5
S
10
N
10
SSE
10
S
20
SSE
20
SSW
15
WSW
15
W
25
NNE
0
NNE
5
NNE
0
E
10
SSW
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
cross-
off		offcross-
off		cross-
off		cross-
off		glasscrossoffglasscross-
on		offcross-
off		cross-
off		cross-
off		cross-
on		cross-
on		crossglasscross-
on		glasscross-
off
High Tide
/ height (m)
10:48PM
3.67
11:14AM
3.97
11:28PM
3.79
11:50AM
4.08
12:08AM
3.85
12:25PM
4.15
12:48AM
3.87
1:01PM
4.17
1:27AM
3.85
1:38PM
4.14
2:07AM
3.80
2:18PM
4.04
2:48AM
3.74
Low Tide
/ height (m)
4:29PM
1.15
5:01AM
1.00
5:05PM
1.01
5:39AM
0.82
5:42PM
0.89
6:14AM
0.69
6:20PM
0.79
6:48AM
0.64
6:58PM
0.74
7:22AM
0.66
7:37PM
0.74
7:58AM
0.75
8:18PM
0.80
8:38AM
0.91
Sun
18
Monday
19
Tuesday
20
Wednesday
21
Thursday
22
Friday
23
Saturday
24
Sunrise--6:15--6:16--6:16--6:18--6:20--6:20--6:22
Sunset8:59--8:58--8:58--8:57--8:55--8:55--8:54--
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
mod rain
heavy rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
light rain
cloud
rain showers
clear
Rain (mm)
-----------8311--72-1-
Temp. °C201319211318211319211716161622221613121118
Feels °C (?)141017181116181017201614131320211213111014
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Latest Updates

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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.

View detailed surf forecast for Outer Cut at:
surf-forecast.com

Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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