Surf Forecasts:
Outer Cut surf forecast from 23 Oct 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 28 Oct, 1AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 8s period, N swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 27 Oct, 7AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, N swell with 513 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 28 Oct, 1AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 8s period with N swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Oct 28) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 2.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Oct 27) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Oct 24) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Wed 28th Oct) | 2ft (0.6m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Wed 28th Oct) | 2ft (0.6m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Tue 27th Oct) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 19°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNW on Mon night, light winds from the S by Tue night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 23 | Saturday 24 | Sunday 25 | Monday 26 | Tuesday 27 | Wednesday 28 | Thursday 29 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 20 | NW 17 | NNE 4 | NNW 5 | N 5 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNW 5 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 6 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 7 | NNW 10 | NNW 9 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 8 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 84 | 170 | 155 | 363 | 157 | 44 | 15 | 39 | 15 | 13 | 24 | 13 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 8:46PM3.66m | 9:17AM3.65m | 9:25PM3.90m | 10:01AM3.90m | 10:04PM4.09m | 10:42AM4.12m | 10:43PM4.20m | 11:21AM4.27m | 11:25PM4.23m | 12:00PM4.32m | 00:09AM4.18m | 12:41PM4.26m | 00:56AM4.04m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:53AM1.00m | 3:15PM0.85m | 3:30AM0.74m | 3:54PM0.63m | 4:06AM0.55m | 4:32PM0.46m | 4:44AM0.45m | 5:11PM0.37m | 5:25AM0.45m | 5:50PM0.37m | 6:09AM0.53m | 6:33PM0.49m | ||||||||
 |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | |  | | | |  | | | |
 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | 7:55 | — | — | 7:57 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:59 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:01 | — | — | 8:02 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 14 |
Feels °C | 14 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 20 | NW 17 | NNE 4 | NNW 5 | N 5 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | — | — | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 7 | NNW 10 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 |
| kJ | 8 | 12 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | — | — | 363 | 157 | 44 | 15 | 39 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 13 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 18 | NW 17 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 15 | — | — | — | NNW 13 | NNW 12 | NNW 11 | N 7 | NNW 9 | NW 8 | — | NW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | — | — | — | 33 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 3 | — | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NW 19 | NW 15 | N 6 | NW 7 | N 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 14 | NW 14 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 15 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 4 | — | WSW 2 | NW 6 | SW 2 | — | — | WSW 2 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 6 | — | — | WSW 3 | WSW 2 | — | — | NW 6 | — | — |
| kJ | 1 | — | 1 | 113 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 84 | 170 | 155 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — | 103 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 127 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 113 | 68 | 101 | 101 | 113 | 123 | 2 | 118 | 0 | 68 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away
Nearest