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Outer Cut Surf Forecast
/ Nelson – Tasman Bay (18 surf breaks) /
Surf Forecasts:
Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand
12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 5 pm Thursday 18 Sep 2025 NZST
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 19) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 2s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 3.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 22) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 14s period and expected on Friday (Sep 19) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Fri 19th Sep) | 2ft (0.6m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Tue 23rd Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Mon 22nd Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.
Short Range Forecast Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu night, strong winds from the N by Sun morning). | Days 3-6 Weather Summary Heavy rain (total 57mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the N on Sun afternoon, calm by Tue morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Thu 18 | Friday 19 | Saturday 20 | Sunday 21 | Monday 22 | Tuesday 23 | Wednesday 24 | |||||||||||||||||
| PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |||
Rating (10 max) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||||
| Wave Height (m) & direction (?) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Period(s) (?) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | ||
Wave (?)Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ (?) | 169 | 63 | 30 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 80 | 951 | 1730 | 2352 | 556 | 556 | 617 | 258 | 182 | 177 | 99 | 124 | 38 | 22 | ||
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wind State (?) onshore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore offshore glassy | cross- on | cross | glass | cross- on | glass | glass | cross- on | on | cross- on | cross- on | cross- on | cross | glass | cross- off | glass | glass | glass | glass | cross | cross- off | glass | ||
High Tide / height (m) | 7:51PM 3.54 | 7:57AM 3.42 | 8:34PM 3.78 | 8:44AM 3.64 | 9:10PM 3.96 | 9:24AM 3.83 | 9:44PM 4.07 | 10:00AM 3.96 | 10:15PM 4.13 | 10:33AM 4.03 | 10:46PM 4.12 | 11:06AM 4.05 | 11:16PM 4.05 | 11:37AM 4.02 | |||||||||
Low Tide / height (m) | 1:52AM 1.03 | 2:15PM 1.13 | 2:35AM 0.82 | 2:58PM 0.90 | 3:12AM 0.67 | 3:33PM 0.72 | 3:46AM 0.58 | 4:03PM 0.60 | 4:17AM 0.55 | 4:31PM 0.57 | 4:48AM 0.57 | 4:58PM 0.62 | 5:17AM 0.63 | ||||||||||
Thu 18 | Friday 19 | Saturday 20 | Sunday 21 | Monday 22 | Tuesday 23 | Wednesday 24 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sunrise | - | - | 6:22 | - | - | 6:20 | - | - | 6:18 | - | - | 6:16 | - | - | 6:15 | - | - | 6:13 | - | - | 6:11 | ||
| Sunset | 6:19 | - | - | 6:20 | - | - | 6:21 | - | - | 6:22 | - | - | 6:22 | - | - | 6:23 | - | - | 6:24 | - | - | ||
 |  |  |  |  | | |  |  |  |  | | | |  | | | | | | | |||
Rain (mm) | - | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | 2 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 12 | - | 1 | 4 | 4 | - | - | - | - | 1 | ||
| Temp. °C | 15 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | ||
| Feels °C (?) | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 11 | ||
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Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
Recent Eyeball Surf Reports for Nelson - Tasman Bay
Continuing clean conditions at Outer Cut (calm at Nelson East wx 3 km from Outer Cut). 1.1m 9s swell from the NNW with a 0.4m 11s groundswell, also from the NNW. 2 swells combining to make bigger set waves.
1 h 10 min ago
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away
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