Surf Forecasts:
Outer Cut surf forecast from 7 Nov 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 12 Nov, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 6s period, NNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 22 Nov, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 9s period, N swell with 399 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 8 Nov, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 6s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Nov 08) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 1.6m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Nov 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Nov 12) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 8th Nov) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Thu 12th Nov) | 5ft (1.6m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sun 22nd Nov) | 5ft (1.6m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 19°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 64mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 7 | Sunday 8 | Monday 9 | Tuesday 10 | Wednesday 11 | Thursday 12 | Friday 13 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 6 | N 6 | N 7 | N 7 | N 5 | NNW 5 | N 6 | N 6 | N 13 | N 13 | N 7 | N 7 | N 7 | N 7 | N 6 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | N 15 | NW 5 | NNW 5 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 15 | 17 | 22 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 94 | 92 | 178 | 74 | 64 | 69 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 7 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 9:09AM3.76m | 9:29PM3.90m | 9:53AM3.90m | 10:06PM3.96m | 10:33AM4.02m | 10:42PM3.96m | 11:10AM4.10m | 11:17PM3.91m | 11:44AM4.13m | 11:54PM3.82m | 12:17PM4.09m | 00:31AM3.70m | 12:49PM3.98m | 1:09AM3.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:17PM0.86m | 3:35AM0.75m | 3:54PM0.78m | 4:12AM0.72m | 4:28PM0.76m | 4:47AM0.73m | 5:01PM0.78m | 5:22AM0.78m | 5:34PM0.84m | 5:58AM0.87m | 6:06PM0.92m | 6:35AM0.99m | 6:40PM1.03m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | |  |  | | |  | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — |
 | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:16 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:21 | — |
mm | — | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 11 | 17 | 29 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 18 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 6 | N 6 | N 7 | N 7 | NW 15 | N 5 | N 6 | N 6 | ENE 3 | ENE 4 | N 7 | N 12 | — | — | NNW 10 | N 5 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | N 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 |
| kJ | 15 | 17 | 22 | 38 | 8 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 3 | — | — | 31 | 27 | 69 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 7 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 8 | N 10 | N 16 | NW 15 | N 14 | N 15 | N 14 | N 14 | N 13 | N 6 | ENE 4 | — | — | — | N 16 | N 8 | N 16 | N 15 | N 6 | N 14 | N 13 |
| kJ | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 15 | — | N 14 | N 16 | — | NW 15 | NW 14 | NW 14 | E 6 | N 13 | N 13 | — | — | — | — | NNW 9 | NW 16 | NW 15 | N 15 | N 14 | N 7 |
| kJ | 4 | — | 4 | 5 | — | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 16 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | N 5 | NNW 5 | — | ENE 4 | — | — | NE 4 | N 7 | N 7 | N 7 | N 6 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | — | SSW 3 | NW 5 | SW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 39 | 39 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 94 | 92 | 178 | 74 | 64 | 229 | — | 1 | 23 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 97 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 113 | 0 | 28 | 102 | 102 | 101 | 28 | 102 | 102 | 118 | 0 | 2 | 113 | 267 | 94 | 177 | 101 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away
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