Outer Cut Surf Break

Lat Long: 41.26° S 173.26° E

Outer Cut Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 06 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
12.9°C
0.6° 

Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Outer Cut surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 0.5ft (0.2m), 19s period, NNW swell with 37 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 0.2m 19s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Monday (Sep 07) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful12AM (Fri 11th Sep)0.5ft (0.2m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.


Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 35mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun night, min 5°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
N
7
0.5
N
8
0.3
N
9
0.4
N
10
0.4
N
9
0.4
N
8
0.3
N
8
0.2
N
8
0.3
N
8
0.3
NNW
7
0.4
NNW
4
0.4
NNW
5
0.2
NNW
19
0.2
N
6
0.4
NW
6
0.2
NNW
4
0.2
NNW
6
0.4
NW
15
0.3
NNW
5
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
181
28
14
30
23
23
12
5
11
9
7
7
37
3
8
2
4
0
4
Wind (km/h)
5
E
10
SSE
5
SSW
5
SSE
0
E
5
N
5
S
0
W
10
NNE
20
SW
5
SW
20
SW
10
SE
15
WSW
15
WSW
15
SW
15
SW
20
WSW
10
SSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-on
glassy
glassy
cross
cross
glassy
cross
off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
5:40AM3.23m
6:55PM3.34m
7:02AM3.38m
8:00PM3.69m
8:07AM3.63m
8:46PM4.00m
9:00AM3.89m
9:27PM4.21m
9:45AM4.09m
10:04PM4.32m
10:25AM4.21m
10:40PM4.34m
Low Tide
11:40PM1.39m
11:55AM1.41m
00:59AM1.16m
1:21PM1.20m
1:59AM0.86m
2:24PM0.92m
2:48AM0.58m
3:12PM0.66m
3:29AM0.39m
3:52PM0.49m
4:07AM0.30m
4:27PM0.40m
heavy rain
mod rain
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:07
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
 mm
25
10
Temp °C
13
7
8
7
10
10
9
11
12
8
11
11
7
13
11
8
13
12
8
Feels °C
13
5
6
4
7
8
8
9
10
4
8
6
4
7
7
3
8
6
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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