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Outer Cut Surf Forecast
/ Nelson – Tasman Bay (18 surf breaks) /
Surf Forecasts:
Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand
16 Day Weather and Surf, issued 12 am Sunday 29 Mar 2026 NZDTForecast update in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
19.3° C
(Which is 2.8°C warmer than normal for this time of year)Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Mar 30) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 1.3m 6s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Apr 04) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Mar 31) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Mon 30th Mar) | 3ft (0.9m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Mon 30th Mar) | 3ft (0.9m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sat 4th Apr) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Short Range Forecast Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Warm (max 20°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 3-6 Weather Summary Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 29 | Monday 30 | Tuesday 31 | Wednesday 01 | Thursday 02 | Friday 03 | Sat 04 | ||||||||||||||||
| Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | ||
Rating (10 max) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
| Wave Height (m) & direction (?) | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Period(s) (?) | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 4 | - | - | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
Wave (?)Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ (?) | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 24 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 47 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wind State (?) onshore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore offshore glassy | glass | glass | cross | cross- on | glass | glass | cross | cross- off | cross- off | off | glass | cross- on | cross- off | cross | cross- on | cross- off | glass | cross | cross | cross- on | cross- on | |
High Tide / height (m) | 8:17AM 3.50 | 8:26PM 3.44 | 9:06AM 3.76 | 9:18PM 3.66 | 9:46AM 3.96 | 10:01PM 3.86 | 10:22AM 4.09 | 10:40PM 4.01 | 10:56AM 4.16 | 11:16PM 4.10 | 11:28AM 4.16 | 11:49PM 4.12 | 11:59AM 4.09 | |||||||||
Low Tide / height (m) | 1:38AM 1.34 | 2:22PM 1.01 | 2:44AM 1.11 | 3:10PM 0.79 | 3:31AM 0.87 | 3:49PM 0.61 | 4:10AM 0.68 | 4:25PM 0.51 | 4:43AM 0.56 | 4:59PM 0.48 | 5:13AM 0.53 | 5:30PM 0.50 | 5:42AM 0.58 | 6:01PM 0.58 | ||||||||
Sunday 29 | Monday 30 | Tuesday 31 | Wednesday 01 | Thursday 02 | Friday 03 | Sat 04 | ||||||||||||||||
| Sunrise | - | 7:37 | - | - | 7:39 | - | - | 7:39 | - | - | 7:41 | - | - | 7:41 | - | - | 7:43 | - | - | 7:43 | - | |
| Sunset | - | - | 7:24 | - | - | 7:22 | - | - | 7:21 | - | - | 7:20 | - | - | 7:17 | - | - | 7:15 | - | - | 7:15 | |
 |  |  |  |  | | | | | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | ||
Rain (mm) | - | - | 1 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Temp. °C | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 20 | 20 | |
| Feels °C (?) | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 18 | |
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away
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