Surf Forecasts:
Outer Cut surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 14 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period, N swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period, N swell with 354 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 13 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 6s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 15s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 16 days are 1.7m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 16 days.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 2°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 4°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | N 8 | NW 17 | NNW 16 | N 21 | NW 19 | NW 18 | NW 16 | NW 16 | N 14 | NW 17 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NNW 4 | N 5 | N 7 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 16 | 199 | 313 | 201 | 105 | 42 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross | glassy | glassy | cross |
High Tide | 3:25PM3.46m | 3:47AM3.61m | 4:21PM3.42m | 4:51AM3.56m | 5:34PM3.43m | 6:00AM3.59m | 7:00PM3.55m | 7:10AM3.70m | 8:14PM3.81m | 8:15AM3.86m | 9:11PM4.11m | 9:16AM4.02m | 10:00PM4.35m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:29PM1.31m | 9:56AM1.21m | 10:46PM1.35m | 11:02AM1.25m | 00:01AM1.26m | 12:12PM1.22m | 1:06AM1.08m | 1:23PM1.11m | 2:06AM0.88m | 2:30PM0.94m | 3:03AM0.69m | 3:32PM0.75m | |||||||||
 | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | |
 | 7:52 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — |
 | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4 | 12 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
Feels °C | 12 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | — | NW 17 | NNW 16 | ENE 5 | ENE 4 | NW 18 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 18 | NW 17 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | N 4 | N 5 | — | — | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 |
| kJ | 1 | — | 12 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 16 | — | — | 201 | 105 | 42 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 8 | — | ENE 5 | NW 15 | NW 19 | — | — | — | N 14 | — | — | — | — | NW 15 | N 15 | — | — | — | NW 14 | NNW 12 |
| kJ | — | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 14 | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 4 | — | — | — | 7 | 14 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | N 21 | NW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 20 | N 18 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 6 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 2 | — | SSW 2 | S 3 | SSE 3 | SSE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | — | N 7 | N 8 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19 | — | 199 | 313 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 94 | 94 | 73 | 28 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 94 | 94 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 102 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Outer Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away
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