Outer Cut surf break

Outer Cut surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand

information circle12 Day Weather and Surf, issued 5 pm Tuesday 08 Jul 2025 NZST
Forecast update in hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is
12.3° C
(Which is slightly cooler than normal)


Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Outer Cut this week:

The surf forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 09) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Outer Cut in the next 12 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 11) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 8s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 16) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Wed 9th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 8s
Best Surf 9PM (Wed 9th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 10s
Most Powerful 3PM (Fri 11th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Outer Cut over the next 12 days.

Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent
Tue
08
Wednesday
09
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sun
20
PMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Wave Height (m) & direction (?)
0.1
N
0.1
N
0.4
N
1
N
1.7
N
1.4
N
1.2
NNW
0.8
N
1.4
NNE
2.5
NNE
1.7
N
1
N
0.9
N
1.2
NNW
0.5
NNW
0.6
N
0.5
N
0.5
N
0.6
N
0.4
NNW
0.4
NNW
1.5
NNW
1
NNW
0.7
N
0.5
NNW
0.3
NNW
0.2
N
0.3
N
0.4
N
0.3
N
0.2
NNW
0.1
N
0.2
NNW
0.2
NNW
0.1
NW
0.1
NW
Period(s) (?)71579988778988131387677567766557715816151515
Wave
Graph
(?)Metric surfscale
Energy (?)1419157837451297612089137461401444761627428215215122529361216381817372242300
Wind
(km/h)
0
W
5
SSW
5
SSE
0
SE
5
S
5
SSW
5
NE
0
ESE
15
ENE
40
NE
20
N
0
ESE
5
NNW
5
SW
5
NW
15
N
5
SE
5
S
5
NW
10
SSW
5
SSE
10
SW
10
S
5
SSW
5
W
10
SSE
10
S
5
S
10
S
10
S
5
W
10
S
5
SSW
5
N
10
SW
5
SW
Wind State (?)
onshore
cross-onshore
cross-shore
cross-offshore
offshore
glassy
glassglasscross-
off
glasscross-
off
glassglassglasscross-
off
crosscross-
on
glassglassglassglasscross-
on
glasscross-
off
oncross-
off
cross-
off
crosscross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
off
glasscross-
off
cross-
off
cross-
on
crosscross
High Tide
/ height (m)
8:29PM
3.62
8:32AM
3.46
9:12PM
3.79
9:18AM
3.61
9:51PM
3.93
10:02AM
3.74
10:29PM
4.03
10:44AM
3.84
11:06PM
4.12
11:26AM
3.88
11:44PM
4.17
12:08PM
3.86
12:22AM
4.17
12:51PM
3.82
1:03AM
4.12
1:35PM
3.77
1:47AM
4.02
2:20PM
3.70
2:35AM
3.87
3:10PM
3.62
3:31AM
3.71
4:06PM
3.52
4:35AM
3.58
Low Tide
/ height (m)
2:20AM
1.35
2:37PM
1.28
3:00AM
1.20
3:27PM
1.13
3:39AM
1.06
4:14PM
0.96
4:18AM
0.94
4:55PM
0.80
4:58AM
0.85
5:33PM
0.68
5:39AM
0.79
6:09PM
0.64
6:21AM
0.77
6:46PM
0.68
7:04AM
0.79
7:26PM
0.79
7:50AM
0.86
8:13PM
0.95
8:41AM
0.98
9:12PM
1.13
9:39AM
1.12
10:29PM
1.26
10:48AM
1.24
Tue
08
Wednesday
09
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sun
20
Sunrise--7:50--7:50--7:50--7:50--7:50--7:48--7:48--7:48--7:47--7:47--7:46--7:45
Sunset5:12--5:12--5:13--5:14--5:14--5:15--5:15--5:16--5:16--5:17--5:19--5:20--
part cloudcloudlight rainmod rainrain showerspart cloudclearlight rainmod rainheavy rainrain showersclearclearclearclearrain showersrain showersclearclearclearlight rainrain showersclearpart cloudlight rainheavy rainmod rainlight rainclearclearclearclearclearpart cloudpart cloudpart cloud
Rain (mm)
--163--28532----21---21--134101--------
Temp. °C1089911131312131413121311101210121387106101010111110131591112911
Feels °C (?)9688101312121011912121199910116472989101081113791079

Short Range Forecast: Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 3-6 Weather Summary Heavy rain (total 58mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NE on Fri afternoon, calm by Sat night).

Days 6-9 Weather Summary Heavy rain (total 48mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Long Range Forecast: Some drizzle, heaviest during Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Outer Cut Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Outer Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 12 days. A general guide to surfing at Outer Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Outer Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Outer Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Outer Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Outer Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 65 km (40 miles) away

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