Tora Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Tora Point.

The 16-day window kicks off with a bit of a slow start, but there’s a serious pulse of energy lurking on the horizon. Overall, the pattern is a tale of two halves: a small, clean but underwhelming opening stretch, followed by a powerful, and at times, oversized, groundswell that will have the experts’ hearts racing.

Thursday, August 27th is a write-off for me – a 7ft S swell with a 16-second period is on the way, but the NE cross-off wind and a 'marginal' tag on the tide puts it in the 'better to sit this one out' basket. The combined energy is reading 2618, which is strong, but the conditions aren't there to unlock it.

Friday, August 28th is where it starts to look interesting. The swell eases to a clean 5ft from the S at 12 seconds, but the big difference is the wind. A solid NNW offshore breeze keeps the face of Tora Point (Lower North Island) clean and lined up. The energy is a moderate 632, and it’s looking like a solid day for a longboard or a mid-length to get some proper lines.

Saturday, August 29th drops right off. We’re down to 3ft of SSE/S swell at 11 seconds. Clean conditions with an offshore breeze, sure, but it’s just not doing anything for me. This is the kind of day you check the tide charts and decide whether it’s worth a skate session instead. The energy is weak at around 195.

Sunday, August 30th is much the same story – small, clean, but unremarkable. The morning has a bit more hope with a light offshore and a 3ft SSW swell, but the arvo turns foul. A WNW cross-off breeze picks up to 22 mph, making it messy and uninviting. Not your day.

Then comes Monday, August 31st. Whoa, hold on. This is the big one. The energy numbers are colossal: 4494 in the morning and 9272 in the afternoon. The swell is jacking from 12ft to a massive 15ft at 12-14 seconds from the SSW. The wind and tide look favorable in the morning, but this is a case of 'too much of a good thing'. This is far and away beyond the comfort zone for Tora Point. This is a big, serious, expert-only swell, and even then, it might be closing out completely. The water temp on this first standout is 53°F, which is pretty standard for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Tuesday, September 1st is rooted. The swell is hanging in there at 13ft, but a SW cross-on wind is going to turn it into a lumpy, blown-out mess. Hard pass.

Wednesday, September 2nd is a redemption arc. The swell has dropped to a much more manageable 7ft from the S at 11 seconds. The wind is a light offshore from the NW, and the call is for 'excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers'. This is the standout. This is the one you circle on the calendar. 1042 energy is solid, the wind is right, and there’s enough size to get some serious speed down the point. This is where I’d be.

Thursday, September 3rd is a letdown after the day before. The swell is draining fast, down to 3ft, and a strong cross-off wind makes it feel smaller and more agitated. Not worth the paddle.

Friday, September 4th has a small, clean pulse of SSW swell at a long 15-16 second period. The morning looks glassy with a light N offshore, but the fresh NW cross-off in the afternoon will chop it up. A brief window, maybe.

Saturday, September 5th and the rest of the first week of September looks flat and unexciting. We're talking knee-high slop. The energy readings are down in the low hundreds and even the 100s. It’s a proper flat spell.

Sunday, September 6th through Tuesday, September 8th: It’s tiny, and the wind starts to howl from the NW, making it completely unappealing. Kite surfers might be having a field day with that strong offshore flow, but for a wave rider, this is a painful stretch.

Wednesday, September 9th is a tease. The swell kicks back up to over 7ft, but the wind is a near gale from the NW at 31 mph in the morning. It’s onshore and impossible. The afternoon is different, but the swell is already dropping.

After a few more small, windy days, we get to Friday, September 11th. This one is interesting. A 5ft SSW swell at 12 seconds shows up with a light N offshore wind. It’s looking clean and a return to a proper fun size. The afternoon builds to a bigger 10ft at 15 seconds, but the cross-off wind and that big period might make it a bit too straight for a point break. Still, a promising way to finish the window, but with a big 'maybe' attached.

So, the standout in this whole run is Wednesday, September 2nd, with Friday, August 28th as a close second for a mellower, more cruisy session. The big swells are going to be too wild for this spot, and the flat spells are long and boring. Keep the faith for that 2nd of September.

Rusty

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