Inner Cut Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a long dry spell for Inner Cut, Nelson Harbour. The next week and a half is mostly flat or close to it, with a few small bumps that hardly count. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t arrive until Friday the 24th of July, and even then it’s nothing to get too excited about.

Inner Cut is a point break that’s inconsistent, and the entire 16-day window is a slow grind. The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is about 0.9°F off normal for this time of year—pretty average for winter.

The first day with any surfable wave height is Friday the 24th of July. The morning brings a 4ft swell from the north, with a period of 6 seconds, so it’s short and weak. The combined energy is only 119 (weak), and the wind is glassy, which is a major positive—the surface will be clean. But the swell is super short period, so the waves will be small, weak, and messy. It’s a “surfable but very ordinary” kind of day. The afternoon sees a bigger 5ft swell from the NNW, period 7 seconds, and combined energy 330 (moderate), but the wind turns cross-shore, so it’ll be choppy and lumpy. Not great.

Saturday the 25th of July is a write-off. Morning swell is 1ft, and the afternoon picks up to 4ft from the NNW, but a 9 mph cross-onshore wind makes it poor. Energy hits 164 (moderate) but the quality is no good.

Sunday the 26th of July has a morning 2ft swell from the NNW, period 15 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. Combined energy is 204 (moderate), and the wind is cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean. The problem is the size—just 2ft. That long period swell will produce long, slow lines, but at a point break like Inner Cut, it might actually wrap in nicely. Still, it’s tiny. The afternoon turns into a 19 mph cross-onshore mess.

From Monday the 27th of July through to Thursday the 30th of July, it’s mostly flat or tiny with poor conditions. Keep your board in the car—nothing happening.

Thursday the 30th of July afternoon offers a 4ft north swell, period 8 seconds, with offshore wind from the SSE at 6 mph. Combined energy is 153 (moderate), and it’s clean. That’s not bad for a midweek hit, but the size is small.

Now, the standout window is the end of the month. Friday the 31st of July morning is the best on offer. A 5ft swell from the NNW, period 10 seconds, combined energy 428 (strong), and a clean cross-offshore wind from the south at 6 mph. This is the one to aim for. The swell is solid, the wind is favourable, and the point will handle that long period well. The afternoon sees a 6ft swell from the same direction, period 10 seconds, energy 706 (strong), but the wind turns cross-on from the NNE. That bigger swell might be too much for the inconsistent set-up, and the cross-on wind will mess it up. So the morning of the 31st is your best bet.

After that, Saturday the 1st of August and Sunday the 2nd of August are small and ordinary again, with a little glassy 3ft to 3ft swell, but nothing to chase.

The long-range into the second week looks weak. The 4th of August shows a 0.7ft swell with a 15-second period, combined energy 39 (very weak), and glassy conditions—basically flat. The whole period is a struggle for the Inner Cut, so if you’re keen, keep an eye on that Friday the 31st of July morning.

Rusty out.

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