Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 6s period, NNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 6s period, NNW swell with 183 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 6s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.7m 6s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ over this next stretch at The Cut (Nelson Harbour). I gotta be straight with you – it’s lookin’ pretty quiet for a while.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a long, dry spell. From now until the morning of Wednesday, September 16, it’s mostly flat or just miserable little knee-slappers that aren’t worth wettin’ a suit for. The water temp is sittin’ around 55°F which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – nothin’ unusual there.
The first real glimpse of hope shows up on the morning of Wednesday, September 16. We get a bump of NW swell at about 4 ft. The wind is light and cross-shore, which will keep it from gettin’ too chopped up, but the period is a short 6 seconds, so the wave energy is weak (84). It’s not gonna set the world on fire, but it’ll be a rideable option for a keen local who just needs to get wet.
The next decent pulse comes on the morning of Thursday, September 17. Swell is smaller at 2 ft from the N, but the real tease here is the wind: dead glassy. It’s a short period again at 6 seconds, and energy is low (29), but if you’re desperate for a clean, tiny wave, that’s your window. For a point break like Inner Cut, that glassy surface can make an otherwise small day feel magical.
Then, a bit of a tease on the morning of Wednesday, September 23. Swell pushes back up to 4 ft from the NW, period is still short at 5 seconds, and it’s got moderate energy (82). The cross-onshore wind won’t do us any favors though. If you’re a beginner, 4 ft is still manageable, but the lumpy wind can make it tricky.
Later, on the morning of September 24, we see a long-period spike pop up at 17 seconds from the NNW, but the swell height is only 0.7 ft. That’s classic groundswell energy (39), but just not enough push to wrap in.
Truth is, there’s no standout session in this whole 16-day outlook. The most you can hope for is a glassy morning on the 17th for a soul session on a longboard.
Due to the weak, short-period energy and often messy conditions, the setup is more interesting for kite surfing on the windier afternoons than for regular paddle surfing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 6°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 19 | NNW 6 | NNW 17 | NNW 5 | N 5 | NNW 6 | NNW 17 | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | N 4 | NW 15 | N 15 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | N 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 0 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 84 | 42 | 36 | 29 | 47 | 22 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | on | cross | cross-off | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 9:45AM4.09m | 10:04PM4.32m | 10:25AM4.21m | 10:40PM4.34m | 11:02AM4.24m | 11:15PM4.27m | 11:36AM4.19m | 11:49PM4.14m | 12:10PM4.08m | 00:23AM3.94m | 12:43PM3.91m | 00:59AM3.69m | 1:16PM3.72m | 1:39AM3.41m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:52PM0.49m | 4:07AM0.30m | 4:27PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.31m | 4:59PM0.42m | 5:17AM0.41m | 5:29PM0.53m | 5:50AM0.57m | 5:58PM0.71m | 6:25AM0.78m | 6:30PM0.95m | 7:01AM1.01m | 7:05PM1.21m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 19 | NW 18 | NNW 4 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 17 | NNW 17 | NNW 17 | ENE 3 | NW 16 | NW 16 | N 4 | NW 15 | N 15 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | — | NW 12 | N 6 | N 5 | NNW 5 |
| kJ | 92 | 82 | 4 | 67 | 68 | 44 | 28 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | — | 5 | 29 | 18 | 7 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 6 | NNW 17 | NNW 5 | — | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 16 | NW 5 | — | NW 15 | — | NW 4 | — | — | — | — | NW 17 | NNW 15 | NNW 15 |
| kJ | — | 3 | 29 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 | — | 9 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 23 | 22 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 11 | — | — | — | NW 11 | NW 10 | NNW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 10 | — | NW 7 |
| kJ | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | 18 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 3 | SW 3 | N 5 | WSW 2 | SW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 2 | — | NW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | — | NNW 6 | W 3 |
| kJ | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 84 | 42 | 36 | — | 47 | 4 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 68 | 68 | 113 | 68 | 128 | 68 | 68 | 113 | 28 | 68 | 113 | 68 | 68 | 133 | 102 | 2 | 192 | 102 | 101 | 101 | 101 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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