Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 6s period, NNW swell with 114 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.2m 6s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 7s period and expected on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 4ft (1.2m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, Rusty here. Look, I’ve scanned the charts for the upcoming stretch, and I’ll be straight with you: it’s a pretty flat and quiet run for the Inner Cut (Nelson Harbour). We’re looking at a solid week or more of nothing doing on the surf front, I’m talking from the 9th right through to the 18th of September. There are gaps where there’s just no swell at all, and even when there is a bump, the wind and the quality just aren’t coming together. It’s a long stretch of small, messy waves with nothing that gets the heart racing.
The first real glimmer of hope comes on the morning of the 19th, a Saturday. We finally see the combined swell energy start to build, hitting a moderate 87, with a wave height hovering around 4ft. The direction is from the NNW, but the cross-shore breeze is going to keep it a bit lumpy. It’s not perfect, but at least the ocean is starting to wake up.
Then, things get a little more interesting on the 20th, Sunday. The energy jumps to 308 in the morning, which is a solid step up, and that NNW swell pushes up to 4ft. The morning session is still showing some cross-shore wind, but it's the afternoon that has the potential to be the one to watch. We see a light offshore breeze with that 3ft N swell and a combined energy of 170. It’s clean, and for a spot that’s been so quiet, that spells opportunity. This is looking like the standout of the run, a genuine chance to get a few. The water temp is sitting at 55°F, which is about average for this time of year, so the wetsuit needs to be thick.
What about the next day, the 21st? There’s a drop-off. The morning has a small 2ft N swell with a cross-offshore wind, and the energy is back down to 60. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. After that, it fades out again. By the 24th, the swell direction swings a bit more NNW, bumping up to 5ft on the Thursday afternoon, but the energy is moderate and the wind is onshore, making the whole thing pretty messy. It’s not what you’d want to paddle out into.
So, bottom line? For the next ten or so days, find another hobby. But keep the 20th marked in the calendar for a Sunday afternoon session. That’s the best we’ve got, and it looks like it might just be worth it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 3°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | N 8 | NW 5 | NNW 4 | N 5 | NNW 20 | NW 19 | NNW 6 | NNW 17 | SW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 17 | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | NNW 6 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 5 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 49 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross | cross | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 8:46PM4.00m | 9:00AM3.89m | 9:27PM4.21m | 9:45AM4.09m | 10:04PM4.32m | 10:25AM4.21m | 10:40PM4.34m | 11:02AM4.24m | 11:15PM4.27m | 11:36AM4.19m | 11:49PM4.14m | 12:10PM4.08m | 00:23AM3.94m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:24PM0.92m | 2:48AM0.58m | 3:12PM0.66m | 3:29AM0.39m | 3:52PM0.49m | 4:07AM0.30m | 4:27PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.31m | 4:59PM0.42m | 5:17AM0.41m | 5:29PM0.53m | 5:50AM0.57m | 5:58PM0.71m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | N 12 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | N 5 | NNW 20 | NW 19 | NW 18 | NNW 4 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NNW 17 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | — |
| kJ | 5 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 92 | 82 | 2 | 65 | 64 | 69 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 30 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 20 | N 18 | N 7 | NW 16 | ENE 4 | — | NW 4 | NNW 17 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 15 | NW 5 | NW 15 | — |
| kJ | — | 8 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 1 | — | 3 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 12 | NW 17 | NW 21 | — | — | NNW 6 | NW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 15 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 3 | 12 | 18 | — | — | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 8 | NW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | W 3 | SW 3 | NW 3 | WSW 2 | — | — | — | SW 2 | — | WSW 2 | WSW 2 | — | NNW 6 |
| kJ | — | 10 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 49 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 68 | 177 | 2 | 140 | 113 | 94 | 68 | 68 | 113 | 101 | 102 | 68 | 102 | 158 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 101 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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