Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 15s period, NNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 31 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NNW swell with 976 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 15s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 3s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the upcoming surf for Inner Cut (The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour). Let’s be straight with you – this is a lean patch, no two ways about it.
We’re looking at a long, frustrating dry spell to start. From Saturday the 25th of July right through to the morning of Wednesday the 29th, it’s all tiny, weak slop with next to no energy. You’re looking at swell heights of 0.7ft to 2ft, and the combined energy barely gets into double digits – mostly single-digit readings like 9. That’s just not going to get you wet. Even though it’s clean with light winds, there’s nothing to ride.
Then we get a tiny flicker of hope on Thursday morning the 30th. The swell ticks up just a touch to 3ft from the NW, and the wind goes glassy. The combined energy is still weak at 70, and the period is short at 5 seconds, so it’s not going to have any push. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s ordinary. The water temp is sitting at 53°, which is about average for this time of year.
Friday the 31st of July is a write-off. A big 8ft swell rolls in from the NNW with a nasty cross-onshore wind blowing 16-22 mph. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1485, but with that wind it’s a messy, lumpy, onshore disaster. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell period is short at 8-9 seconds too, so it’s just a wall of chop.
We get a bit of a breather on Saturday the 1st of August, with clean conditions and an offshore breeze. Swell drops to 3ft from the north, combined energy at a modest 113. It’s surfable but ordinary. Sunday the 2nd offers the same story – glassy, clean, but tiny 2ft to 3ft swell with low energy. Nothing will get you excited.
After that, from Monday the 3rd of August onwards, it’s back to flatness. Swell heights drop below 2ft and the combined energy readings are in the single digits again. There’s a very long period 16-second swell showing for the morning of Saturday the 8th of August, but with only 0.3ft of height, it’s just a ripple on the water.
Bottom line: there is no standout session here. The best you’ll get is a clean, glassy but tiny wave on the morning of Thursday the 30th of July or Sunday the 2nd of August. Don’t plan your week around it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Sat afternoon, min 4°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 36mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed afternoon, fresh winds from the NNE by Fri morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | NNW 15 | NNW 14 | NNW 14 | NNW 14 | NNW 13 | NNW 8 | NNW 7 | N 11 | N 6 | N 6 | N 3 | N 4 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | N 5 | N 7 | N 8 | NNW 9 | N 8 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 45 | 125 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 49 | 24 | 123 | 597 | 976 | 201 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:58PM3.28m | 7:13AM3.17m | 8:03PM3.44m | 8:10AM3.28m | 8:49PM3.63m | 8:57AM3.44m | 9:27PM3.79m | 9:38AM3.60m | 10:02PM3.92m | 10:16AM3.74m | 10:36PM4.04m | 10:54AM3.84m | 11:09PM4.12m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:12AM1.60m | 1:19PM1.56m | 2:04AM1.48m | 2:17PM1.44m | 2:46AM1.33m | 3:08PM1.25m | 3:22AM1.19m | 3:51PM1.04m | 3:56AM1.05m | 4:27PM0.84m | 4:30AM0.92m | 5:00PM0.70m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  |  | | | |
 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — |
 | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 28 | 15 | 23 |
Temp °C | 11 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | NNW 15 | NE 4 | NNW 8 | NNW 7 | NNW 9 | NNW 8 | NNW 7 | N 6 | N 6 | N 6 | N 3 | N 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NW 17 | — | — | N 9 | N 8 |
| kJ | 45 | 125 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 11 | — | — | 509 | 201 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 15 | — | NNW 9 | ENE 4 | NNW 14 | NNW 13 | N 12 | NW 12 | N 11 | — | — | NW 6 | N 15 | NW 14 | NE 6 | — | — | — | NW 16 | NW 15 |
| kJ | 146 | — | 15 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 10 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 14 | NNW 14 | — | — | NW 12 | — | — | — | — | NW 11 | — | — | N 14 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 21 | 20 | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 3 | WSW 3 | — | — | — | SSW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | — | NW 5 | N 5 | N 7 | N 8 | NNW 9 | — |
| kJ | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | 49 | 24 | 123 | 597 | 976 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 19 | 0 | 68 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 97 | 68 | 68 | 102 | 68 | 0 | 113 | 0 | 118 | 102 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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