Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 6s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 6s period, NW swell with 133 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 6s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.4m 6s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 2s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, grab a coffee mate, let’s have a look at what’s cooking over at Inner Cut (The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour). I’m not gonna sugar-coat it – this is one of those painful outlooks where we’re staring down the barrel of a long, flat spell. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a drought, so don't get your hopes up.
We start off on Thursday the 16th of July with the only real pulse of energy. Thursday morning sees a tiny 2 ft swell from the NNW with a period of just 6 seconds – that’s short-period wind slop, not a groundswell. The combined wave energy is only 57 (weak). A 3 mph S breeze is blowing cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean, but the waves are going to be tiny and weak. Honestly, it’s surfable in the sense that you could get wet, but the conditions are very ordinary. Thursday afternoon drops off to a pathetic 0.7 ft.
Then we hit a massive gap. From Friday the 17th right through to the end of the period on Friday the 31st of July, there is nothing worth paddling out for. It’s a solid two-week stretch of flat calm, wind ripples, and glassy sessions where the swell height is mostly 0.7 ft or less, and the combined energy is often in the single digits or zero. The wind will be light and clean a lot of the time – even glassy on many afternoons – but you can’t surf nothing. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so you won't freeze just standing there looking at it.
Because this break is inconsistent at the best of times, a blank run like this isn’t shocking for the area. It tends not to stay this poor forever, but for now, leave the board in the car. The only faint hope is that forecast can change, but as it sits, it’s a no-go.
Stick the kettle on, Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wed 22 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | NNW 15 | NNW 5 | SW 3 | NW 16 | NW 16 | WSW 2 | WSW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 16 | N 12 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 11 | N 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 42 | 33 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | glassy | off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:45PM4.49m | 11:04AM4.20m | 11:28PM4.50m | 11:52AM4.20m | 00:10AM4.40m | 12:37PM4.12m | 00:52AM4.23m | 1:19PM3.99m | 1:34AM4.01m | 2:00PM3.82m | 2:19AM3.79m | 2:42PM3.63m | 3:06AM3.57m | 3:27PM3.44m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:46AM0.42m | 5:14PM0.52m | 5:32AM0.41m | 5:56PM0.53m | 6:16AM0.50m | 6:35PM0.64m | 6:58AM0.67m | 7:12PM0.81m | 7:41AM0.89m | 7:50PM1.02m | 8:26AM1.12m | 8:34PM1.27m | 9:16AM1.33m | ||||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:48 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:46 | — | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:43 | — |
 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | NNW 6 | N 6 | NNW 5 | NW 15 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 5 | NNW 4 | NW 16 | NW 16 | — | NW 15 | NW 14 | — | E 3 | — | — | N 11 | NNW 4 |
| kJ | 11 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | — | 8 | 8 | — | 1 | — | — | 10 | 1 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 16 | NNW 16 | NNW 15 | NW 15 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 18 | NW 18 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 15 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | N 10 | NW 6 | N 11 |
| kJ | 24 | 24 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 8 | W 8 | — | NW 8 | — | N 12 | N 10 | — | NW 4 | NW 14 | E 5 | — | NE 4 | NW 16 | N 6 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | 8 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | — | — | SW 2 | SW 3 | — | — | WSW 2 | WSW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 2 | — | — | WSW 3 | — |
| kJ | 42 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 113 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 28 | 68 | 113 | 28 | 68 | 94 | 94 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 102 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Inner Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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