
Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 25 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 8s period, NNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period, NNW swell with 393 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 24 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 7s period with N swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 7s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.8m 8s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 30) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sat 25th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Lookin' over the charts for our little slice of paradise, and I gotta be straight with you – it's a quiet stretch. We've got a 16-day window, and for the most part, the ocean's takin' a nap. There's no real swell on the cards until we hit the very start of August, so don't bother waxin' up your boards just yet. Let's break it down.
The only spot worth talking about is Inner Cut (The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour). This is a point break that's inconsistent, so it needs the right combination to fire. When it does, it's a beauty. On Friday morning, the 24th of July, we get our best look. There's a 2 ft swell lurking on the Thursday, but it's messy. Friday morning, though, we see a jump to 5 ft of swell out of the N, with a period of 7 seconds. The wind is dead calm – glassy as a millpond. Water temp is sitting at 53°F, which is about 1°F cooler than average for this time of year, so nothin' wild, just a standard winter chill. The combined energy hits 223 (moderate), but honestly, it's the total lack of wind that makes this one interesting. It's surfable, but the conditions are very ordinary, so keep your expectations in check. This is the best we've got by a long shot, but it's a far cry from pumping.
After that, it's a whole lot of nuthin'. The rest of July is a write-off with tiny, weak energy levels – mostly 0s and single-digit energy readings (weak). We get one little pulse on Saturday afternoon, the 25th with a 2 ft swell from the NNW and a very long period of 15 seconds (224 energy, moderate), but the cross-shore wind ruins it. The point break setup might give you a few clean lines, but it's not worth the paddle for the size.
Then we hit a real dead zone. From Sunday the 26th of July all the way through to Monday the 3rd of August, we're looking at a solid 9 days of barely a ripple. You'll see zeros for swell energy on a lot of those days. Don't be fooled by the glassy mornings – without any swell, you're just floating.
We finally get another pulse around Monday afternoon, the 3rd of August and into Tuesday the 4th. On the 4th, Tuesday morning there's a 3 ft N swell with a 9-second period and clean offshore wind. The energy is 99 (still weak), but by Tuesday afternoon it builds a little to 3 ft from the NNE with a 9-second period and glassy conditions, energy hitting 123 (moderate). The charts say "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions," and for this stretch, that's as good as it gets. It's a long way off, so don't plan your week around it, but it's a glimmer of hope.
To be honest, for a stretch this long, the consistent theme is that this area is in a real lull. The numbers back it up. If you absolutely need a paddle, keep an eye on that window around August 4th. Otherwise, it's a good time to fix a ding or just enjoy the view.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 5°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Mon afternoon, min 4°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NNW 5 | N 7 | N 8 | NNW 8 | N 8 | NNW 15 | NNW 9 | NNW 15 | NNW 14 | NNW 13 | NNW 8 | NNW 8 | NNW 7 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 22 | 223 | 217 | 311 | 86 | 188 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 69 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 100 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | glassy | on |
High Tide | 4:21PM3.29m | 5:00AM3.22m | 5:32PM3.21m | 6:07AM3.15m | 6:58PM3.28m | 7:13AM3.17m | 8:03PM3.44m | 8:10AM3.28m | 8:49PM3.63m | 8:57AM3.44m | 9:27PM3.79m | 9:38AM3.60m | 10:02PM3.92m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:52PM1.66m | 11:13AM1.59m | 00:09AM1.68m | 12:16PM1.61m | 1:12AM1.60m | 1:19PM1.56m | 2:04AM1.48m | 2:17PM1.44m | 2:46AM1.33m | 3:08PM1.25m | 3:22AM1.19m | 3:51PM1.04m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | |
5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | N 13 | — | — | N 8 | N 8 | NNW 15 | NW 15 | NNW 8 | ENE 3 | NNW 13 | NNW 8 | NNW 8 | NNW 7 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NW 15 | — |
4 | 3 | — | — | 141 | 86 | 188 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 69 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 14 | — | — | — | NW 17 | N 10 | N 8 | NNW 9 | NNW 15 | NNW 8 | — | NW 12 | NW 12 | NW 12 | — | — | — | NW 15 | — | — |
8 | — | — | — | 12 | 18 | 34 | 16 | 21 | 6 | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 17 | — | — | — | NNW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 15 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 27 | — | — | — | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NNW 5 | N 7 | N 8 | NNW 8 | WSW 3 | SW 3 | NE 4 | E 4 | — | — | SW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 5 | NNW 6 |
13 | 22 | 223 | 217 | 311 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23 | 100 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 102 | 196 | 0 | 124 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 96 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 28 | 94 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 101 | 118 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away










