
Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 5s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 6s period, NW swell with 129 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 5s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 5s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.4m 6s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 16) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 5s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 5s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mate. Rusty here, and I've had a proper look at the forecast for the Inner Cut at The Cut in Nelson Harbour.
To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat. There's a big gap of nothing, really. The first few days are tiny, and we're looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions right through until the very end of the month. It's not a total blank, but it's close.
The first bit of hope pops up on the morning of the 28th of July. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the north, with a combined energy of 105 (moderate). The wind is glassy, which is a massive plus, so the surface will be clean. It's a point break, so it can handle a bit of direction, but with a short period of 6 seconds, it won't have much push. It's a surfable wave, but it'll be very ordinary.
The afternoon of the 28th sees a bit more size, hitting 5ft from the north, and the energy jumps to 247 (moderate). That's a bit bigger, but the wind swings cross-onshore, which will mess up the face. It's not a great option for the average surfer; at 5ft, it's pushing into intermediate territory, and the wind will be messy. The long period isn't coming from the right direction for this spot, and the wind is just wrong.
The rest of the run is a write-off. Tiny swell, poor wind, or just no energy at all. The break is inconsistent, and this period shows exactly why. Days like the 19th of July have zero energy, and the glassy conditions are wasted on a flat ocean. The 25th of July afternoon has a glassy 0.7ft with a 17-second period, but the energy is only 32, so it's a total non-event.
The only standout, if you could call it that, is the morning of the 28th. It's the only time the swell, wind, and energy line up even remotely. It's a small window, so don't get your hopes up too high. For the rest of the time, you're better off waxing the longboard and hoping for a miracle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sun morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 5°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tue 21 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 7 | N 6 | N 6 | NW 5 | NNW 6 | NNW 15 | NNW 5 | N 18 | NNW 16 | NW 16 | WSW 2 | NNW 4 | NW 18 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 15 | N 11 | NW 14 | NW 14 | N 13 | N 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
57 | 30 | 20 | 49 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross | cross | glassy | glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 10:00PM4.35m | 10:12AM4.14m | 10:45PM4.49m | 11:04AM4.20m | 11:28PM4.50m | 11:52AM4.20m | 00:10AM4.40m | 12:37PM4.12m | 00:52AM4.23m | 1:19PM3.99m | 1:34AM4.01m | 2:00PM3.82m | 2:19AM3.79m | 2:42PM3.63m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:56AM0.52m | 4:27PM0.59m | 4:46AM0.42m | 5:14PM0.52m | 5:32AM0.41m | 5:56PM0.53m | 6:16AM0.50m | 6:35PM0.64m | 6:58AM0.67m | 7:12PM0.81m | 7:41AM0.89m | 7:50PM1.02m | 8:26AM1.12m | ||||||||
— | 7:48 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:46 | — | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:45 | — | |
— | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 7 | N 6 | N 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | N 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NNW 4 | NW 18 | NW 16 | NW 16 | E 4 | ENE 4 | NE 4 | NE 4 | N 4 | N 4 |
57 | 30 | 20 | 17 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 12 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NNW 16 | NNW 16 | NNW 15 | NW 15 | NW 15 | NW 5 | — | NW 5 | NW 15 | NW 4 | — | — | NW 15 | NW 15 | NW 14 | — | N 10 | N 11 |
15 | 69 | 63 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 1 | — | — | 9 | 8 | 8 | — | 2 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 18 | — | — | — | NW 18 | W 8 | — | — | — | N 11 | NE 5 | NW 14 | N 13 | — |
13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | 13 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NW 5 | — | — | SW 2 | SW 3 | — | — | WSW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 49 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 101 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 128 | 28 | 68 | 113 | 97 | 102 | 102 | 97 | 68 | 94 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away











