Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 24 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 5s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 7s period, NNW swell with 353 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 24 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 5s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 5s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.8m 7s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 15s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 5s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 5s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 7s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming our way at Inner Cut (The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour).
Alright, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it: the next week and a half is a write-off. We’re looking at a solid 10-day stretch of hardly anything rideable. From Tuesday the 21st of July right through to the morning of Thursday the 30th, it’s mostly flat or tiny, mixed with onshore junk. There’s a moment on Thursday afternoon the 23rd with a glassy 2ft wave, but the period is a rubbish 4 seconds – just not enough push to get excited about. That’s a long, slow gap.
Then, things start to wake up. Thursday afternoon the 30th sees a building 5ft swell from the north with a 7-second period, but the wind is on it, so it’s messy. Not our day.
Now, here’s the real standout. Friday the 31st of July. The morning kicks off with a clean 7ft north swell, 10-second period, and glassy conditions. The combined energy is a solid 873 (moderate). That’s a proper winter groundswell for the experienced crew – it’s right in the zone for a point break, though at 7ft it’s a bit much for beginners. The wind is light from the west, glassy, and it’s going to be clean. This is the one to circle.
But the absolute best of the whole 16-day window lands on Saturday the 1st of August. Morning glass again, with a 7ft north swell and a 15-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell, packing serious energy – the combined reading is 2702 (strong). That’s going to wrap in beautifully at Inner Cut, offering long, lined-up waves. This is expert-only territory at over 8ft, so be ready. The water is a bit cool for this time of year, running about 54°F, which is fairly normal for the season. The afternoon drops off to 4ft with a cross-shore wind, so get it in the morning.
After that, the swell fades fast. Sunday the 2nd has small 2ft waves, clean and glassy, but nothing special. The rest of the outlook into early August is tiny again.
So, don’t even bother paddling out until the 31st. For the experienced surfer, Friday the 31st morning is a solid, clean option, but Saturday the 1st of August morning is the true standout – big, clean, and powerful. If you miss that window, there’s nothing else on the cards.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 6°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 26mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 2°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 11 | N 11 | N 10 | N 16 | N 10 | N 8 | N 7 | NW 4 | NW 5 | N 7 | N 7 | NNW 7 | NNW 13 | NNW 15 | NNW 15 | NNW 15 | NNW 14 | NNW 13 | N 13 | NNW 8 | NW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 69 | 257 | 199 | 188 | 98 | 252 | 92 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:42PM3.63m | 3:06AM3.57m | 3:27PM3.44m | 3:59AM3.37m | 4:21PM3.29m | 5:00AM3.22m | 5:32PM3.21m | 6:07AM3.15m | 6:58PM3.28m | 7:13AM3.17m | 8:03PM3.44m | 8:10AM3.28m | 8:49PM3.63m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:34PM1.27m | 9:16AM1.33m | 9:32PM1.51m | 10:12AM1.49m | 10:52PM1.66m | 11:13AM1.59m | 00:09AM1.68m | 12:16PM1.61m | 1:12AM1.60m | 1:19PM1.56m | 2:04AM1.48m | 2:17PM1.44m | 2:46AM1.33m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  |  | | |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:45 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — |
 | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | — | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 11 | N 11 | NW 4 | N 10 | N 10 | N 8 | NW 15 | NW 4 | NNW 5 | — | — | N 7 | N 8 | NNW 15 | NNW 15 | ENE 4 | NNW 14 | NNW 13 | N 6 | NNW 8 | NW 7 |
| kJ | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 19 | — | — | 83 | 30 | 252 | 92 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 10 | — | — | — | — | NW 14 | N 13 | — | — | NW 17 | NNW 13 | — | NNW 8 | NNW 15 | SE 3 | NNW 9 | N 8 | NW 12 | — |
| kJ | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 3 | — | — | 12 | 98 | — | 13 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 13 | N 16 | — | — | N 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 8 | N 7 | ENE 4 | N 13 | — | NW 12 |
| kJ | — | — | 7 | 5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | — | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 2 | SW 2 | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | N 7 | N 7 | NNW 7 | W 3 | WSW 3 | ENE 3 | SE 3 | SE 3 | — | SW 2 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 11 | 69 | 257 | 199 | 188 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 68 | 68 | 68 | 94 | 68 | 94 | 102 | 201 | 0 | 123 | 201 | 2 | 140 | 9 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 94 | 68 | 102 | 94 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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