Surf Forecasts:
Inner Cut surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 8s period, NNE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 18 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 10s period, N swell with 452 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 5s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Inner Cut this week:
The surf forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 5s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Inner Cut in the next 16 days are 1.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 5s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 5ft (1.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Inner Cut over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a good look at the charts for The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour, and I’m not gonna sugar-coat it: this is a pretty lean run. We’re talking about a stretch where decent surf is a rare visitor, and you’re gonna have to be patient. The first solid window doesn’t show up until later in the second week, but even then, conditions are mixed. Let’s walk through it.
For the first week and a half, it’s pretty grim. From Sunday the 13th right through to the morning of Monday the 28th, there are no good recommendations. That’s a solid gap of about two weeks with barely a ripple worth paddling for. We see tiny waves, mostly under 1 ft, with a few weak pulses of combined swell energy (4 to 35). Winds are often cross or cross-onshore, sometimes glassy but with no real swell to back it up. It’s a frustrating wait.
Now, the standout option in this entire forecast lands on Monday, September 28th, during the morning session. Inner Cut (The-Cut-Nelson-Harbour) is the spot to target. It’s a point break, rated for intermediate surfers, and it’s inconsistent, so when it does fire, you’ve got to be on it. The swell is coming from the NNW at 6 ft, with a period of 7 seconds. That’s a moderate-sized, short-period swell, so it’ll have some punch but won’t be super clean or lined up like a groundswell. The combined swell energy is solid at 319 (moderate wave energy). Wind is light cross-onshore from the W at 6 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s manageable. Water temps are about average for this time of year (55°F, anomaly of 0.4°F). Crowds are possible – “sometimes” is the word, so you might have company. The swell direction from NNW isn’t a perfect match for the optimum NW, but it’s close enough to work.
Honestly, that Monday morning is the only real standout. The rest of the week before and after is poor surf conditions, with tiny waves and messy wind. If you’re a beginner, that 6 ft is right on the edge of being too big. For experts, it’s fine. But don’t expect perfection – it’s more of a “get what you can” session.
That’s the story. Not much to work with, but if you’re keen, that Monday morning is your best bet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 15 | NW 15 | N 15 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNW 5 | N 5 | N 5 | NNE 7 | N 10 | N 10 | N 9 | N 8 | N 7 | NNW 10 | NNW 7 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 28 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 35 | 152 | 422 | 228 | 162 | 65 | 17 | 9 | 9 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | glassy | glassy | cross | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:15PM4.27m | 11:36AM4.19m | 11:49PM4.14m | 12:10PM4.08m | 00:23AM3.94m | 12:43PM3.91m | 00:59AM3.69m | 1:16PM3.72m | 1:39AM3.41m | 1:53PM3.48m | 2:28AM3.15m | 2:36PM3.23m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:59PM0.42m | 5:17AM0.41m | 5:29PM0.53m | 5:50AM0.57m | 5:58PM0.71m | 6:25AM0.78m | 6:30PM0.95m | 7:01AM1.01m | 7:05PM1.21m | 7:40AM1.25m | 7:50PM1.48m | 8:28AM1.49m | 8:57PM1.70m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — |
 | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — | — | 6:19 | — | — | 6:20 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 17 | ENE 3 | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 15 | NW 15 | N 15 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | — | NW 11 | NW 10 | NW 16 | N 10 | N 10 | N 9 | N 8 | N 7 | NNW 5 | NNW 7 |
| kJ | 28 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | 5 | 4 | 10 | 422 | 228 | 162 | 65 | 17 | 16 | 9 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | NNW 16 | NW 5 | — | NW 4 | — | — | NW 5 | N 4 | — | — | NW 16 | NW 16 | NW 18 | NNW 16 | NNW 16 | NW 15 | NW 15 | NNW 10 | NW 14 |
| kJ | 2 | 25 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | 10 | 38 | 12 | 25 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 10 | NW 15 | — |
| kJ | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 8 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 2 | — | NNW 5 | N 5 | N 5 | NNE 7 | — | SSW 3 | — | — | — | NW 6 | WSW 2 |
| kJ | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 28 | 22 | 35 | 152 | — | 3 | — | — | — | 106 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 158 | 28 | 28 | 118 | 68 | 68 | 123 | 102 | 102 | 101 | 102 | 17 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 0 | 68 | 68 | 113 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Inner Cut surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Inner Cut Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Inner Cut provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Inner Cut can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Inner Cut surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Inner Cut) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Inner Cut may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Inner Cut, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 2 km (1 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 64 km (40 miles) away
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