Surf-Forecast | Outer Cut Surf Guide

Lat Long: 41.26° S 173.26° E

Issued: 6 am 04 Nov 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in hr min

Today's Outer Cut sea temperature is

15.7°C

Outer Cut surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.

Photo by: Kevin Toughey

Outer Cut Surf Guide

Outer Cut in Nelson - Tasman Bay is a quite exposed point break that has inconsistent surf with no particular seasonal pattern. Offshore winds blow from the southeast and there is no shelter here from cross shore breezes. Groundswells more frequent than windswells and the optimum swell angle is from the north northwest. No point break here. Best around low tide. It very rarely gets crowded here. Dangerous rips are a hazard of surfing here.

Outer Cut Spot Info

Type:	Rating:	Reliability:	Todays Sea Temp*:
Point	4	inconsistent	15.7°C*ocean temperature recorded from satellite

Surfing Outer Cut:

The best conditions reported for surf at Outer Cut occur when a North-northwest swell combines with an offshore wind direction from the Southeast.

Hourly Forecast

16 Day Forecast

What's the best time of year to surf Outer Cut (for consistent clean waves)?

juneBest Season: winter

The best time of year for surfing Outer Cut with consistent clean waves (rideable swell with light / offshore winds) is during Winter and most often the month of June. Clean surfable waves are typically found 5% of the time in June while 16% of the time it tends to be blown out. For the remaining 79% of the time it is considered too small by most surfers but may still be OK for beginners and groms at times.

clean

Surfable waves that hold up well for longer rides in prevailing cross-offshore, offshore or light wind conditions.

blown out

16%

Surfable sized waves that are of poorer quality due to prevailing onshore, cross-onshore or windy conditions (may be preferable for kitesurfing).

too small

79%

Waves usually considered too small for good surf. Some wave-magnet breaks may still work though if conditions are right (on occasion).

Explore Outer Cut Location Map

Interactive Outer Cut surf break location map. View information about nearby surf breaks, their wave consistency and rating compared to other spots in the region. Current swell conditions from local buoys are shown along with live wind speed and direction from nearby weather stations. Click icons on the map for more detail. The closest passenger airport to Outer Cut is Nelson Airport (NSN) in New Zealand, 6 km (4 miles) away (directly). The second nearest airport to Outer Cut is Woodbourne Airport (BHE), also in New Zealand, 58 km (36 miles) away.

Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)

Please note that some surf spot locations are approximate to protect their exact location while others are not shown at close zoom level.

Outer Cut Surf Forecasts:

Hourly Forecast

16 Day Forecast

Todays Surf Summary
Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 09:38 Local Time

m, °C	Wednesday 04
ft, °F	10AM	1PM	4PM	7PM
Wave (m)	N	N	N	N
Period (s)	6	6	6	6
Wind (km/h)
Wind State	cross	cross- on	cross	cross

What does Outer Cut look like?

Latest photos from Outer Cut. Upload your own or view all photos on the gallery page.

Credit: Rob Davies Credit: Rob Davies Credit: Rob Davies Credit: Rob Davies Credit: Kevin Toughey

Tides at Outer Cut

Current tide and informaton

For Nelson, New Zealand, 1 km from Outer Cut.

Next High Water: 07:04pm | 3.5m

Next Low Water: 12:33pm | 1.3m

NEXT	IS AT (local time)	remaining
high tide
low tide

Outer Cut Sea Temperature

The water temperature (15.7 °C) at Outer Cut is quite cool. If the sun shines as we have forecast, it should feel warm enough to surf in a good spring wetsuit. Effective windchill factor of (17.0 °C) will make the air and water feel about the same temperature.

Today, many surfers would wear a spring wetsuit.

Current Temp*: 15.7°C*ocean temperature recorded from satellite