Ranches Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a single spot lighting up the forecast for the next couple of weeks, and it’s a proper reef setup that demands respect.

The overall pattern is a bit of a slow burn. We’re starting with a few days of small, ordinary surf before a real push of energy arrives for the second weekend and into the following week. The standout window is clearly the 16th through the 18th, when things get serious.

We kick off on Friday the 7th of August with tiny 2ft waves from the southwest, but the wind is a cross-off from the NNE, so the water’s clean. The water temperature is sitting at a very warm 80°, which is about 0.5° above the long-term average, so it’s basically normal for this time of year—nice and balmy.

Saturday the 8th is a washout with no rideable surf, and Sunday the 9th is back to that 2ft southwest swell, but this time with a clean offshore breeze from the NE. The period is a decent 16 seconds, which is proper groundswell, but the energy is still weak (187 combined energy). It’s surfable but ordinary.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are similar—small, weak, and not worth getting excited about. The swell drops to nearly nothing by Wednesday and Thursday the 12th and 13th, with a bit of a long-period WNW groundswell trying to sneak in, but it’s only 0.7ft to 1.0ft. That’s a paddling-only day.

Now, Friday the 14th sees a shift. The swell picks up to 4ft from the northeast, with a short period of 7 seconds. The wind is offshore from the ENE, but the energy is building (132 combined energy). It’s still ordinary though.

The real action starts on Saturday the 15th of August. The swell is 4ft to 4ft from the NE, period is 8 seconds, and the wind is a solid offshore from the ENE. The energy jumps to 221 by the afternoon, but the conditions are still marginal. Not the best, but it’s getting there.

Sunday the 16th of August is where it gets interesting. The morning sees 6ft of NE swell, period 8 seconds, and clean offshore ENE winds at 25 km/h. The combined energy is a strong 459. This is legitimate surf, but at 6ft, it’s pushing into the zone where it’s too much for beginners. The afternoon bumps up to 7ft with 516 energy.

Monday the 17th of August is the standout. The morning brings 7ft of NE swell, period 8 seconds, and a lighter offshore breeze from the ENE at 15 km/h. The energy is a powerful 610. This is very good surf. The afternoon holds steady at 7ft with 625 energy. This is big, powerful, and clean. For a reef break like Ranches, the NE swell direction is spot on for the optimum. At this size, only experienced surfers should be out there. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might share it, but it’s worth it.

Tuesday the 18th is still good with 4ft of NE swell, but the wind turns cross-off from the NNE, and the energy drops to 243. Still fun, but not as clean as Monday.

After that, things get small again. Wednesday the 19th has a brief moment of glassy conditions with 2ft from the NE in the morning, but by the afternoon, the wind swings onshore from the WSW. The rest of the week into the 22nd stays small, weak, and mostly ordinary, though there are a few clean windows with offshore winds.

The Pick: Without a doubt, Monday the 17th of August at Ranches. The 7ft of NE swell, clean offshore wind, and 610 combined energy is the best on offer. It’s big, powerful, and clean. Don’t sleep on the Sunday either, but Monday is the peak.

Rusty.

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