The Wedge Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it. We’ve got a 16-day window on the cards, but I’ll be honest with you, it’s a bit of a slow burner.

First thing’s first – the water is sitting at a very unusual 73°F with a temperature anomaly of 6°F, so it is much warmer than what we’d normally expect for this time of year. Don't get too comfortable though, because the surf outlook is a tough one.

Right now, we’re staring at a gap. There’s nothing worth paddling out for until Thursday the 17th of September, and even then, it’s only marginal. For the first three days, from Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 16th, the conditions are flat and poor. The swell is tiny, mostly around 1 ft to 3 ft from the SW with a very long period—18 seconds on Monday, dropping to 16 seconds by Wednesday—and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate at best (200–374), but with those onshore breezes, it’s a write-off.

The best you can say about the whole 16 days is that Thursday the 17th sees a slight flicker of hope. The morning brings a 2 ft SSW swell with a period of 16 seconds and the combined energy picks up to 367. The wind is a light cross-onshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph, so it’s messy but might be just surfable for the die-hards. The afternoon stays cross-shore but keeps that marginal tag.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are similar – small 2 ft SW swells with long periods (18-19 seconds) and light winds. The energy is moderate (356–370), but the waves are small and the conditions are only marginal, so it’s really just a chance to get wet more than score anything special. The wind does swing offshore from the SSW on Saturday morning, which is a positive, but the swell is just too weak to get excited about.

Sunday the 20th sees a slight bump. The swell pushes up to 3 ft from the SW, period 18 seconds, and the energy jumps to 466 in the morning and 556 in the afternoon. That’s moderate energy finally making a statement. The wind is light and onshore in the morning, but the afternoon sees it go light cross-onshore from the SSW. It’s still just marginal at best, but it’s the closest we get to anything with a pulse.

After that, the pattern remains stubborn. From Monday the 21st onwards, we’re looking at more poor surf conditions. The swell hangs around 3 ft to 2 ft from the SW with periods dropping from 17 seconds down to 13 seconds by the 26th. The energy remains moderate (200–477), but the wind stays either onshore, cross-onshore, or cross-shore. It is consistently poor surf, with no standout windows. By the 27th and 28th, the swell drops back to 2 ft–2 ft, and the final day, Tuesday the 29th, sees a tiny 1 ft–2 ft SSW swell with a long 18-second period, but the wind is onshore and it’s back to poor.

Honestly, the only break on the menu here is The Wedge. It’s a breakwater wave, fairly consistent, and it needs an SSW swell to work. We do get some SSW component late in the window, but the size is too small and the winds are never clean. The crowds can be an issue here, often busy, but with conditions this poor, you won’t have to worry about that. For a spot this exposed and demanding, anything under 2 ft just isn't going to do it, and the slight afternoon bumps we see don’t line up with clean winds.

Don’t hold your breath on this one. It’s going to be a flat and frustrating run for the most part. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board in the car and bring a towel.

Rusty.

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