The Wedge Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down this 16-day stretch for The Wedge in Newport Beach.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty flat and discouraging run. The forecast starts with a window of mid-period SSW swell, but it’s paired with a light cross-onshore breeze on Monday July 27th. The swell direction is SSW, which is basically the worst possible for this spot – it just doesn’t wrap in right. The water is sitting at 71°F, which is a full 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – super toasty, but that’s the only generous thing here. The combined energy is moderate in the 700s (767 on Monday morning), but the wave comments keep saying “marginal,” and I have to agree. The wind is light, but it’s from the wrong angle, so the lineup will be bumpy and unorganized.

This marginal pattern continues right through the end of July and into early August. Tuesday the 28th has a bit more energy (811) but the wind is onshore, not favourable. Wednesday the 29th sees the energy peak at 876, but again, it’s onshore. The swell heights are only around 4 ft to 4 ft, and with a period of 16-17 seconds, this is a long-period groundswell, but it’s wasted on a beach break with the wrong wind. The Wedge needs that perfect SW to SSW combo with offshore or glassy conditions to really fire, and we’re not getting that.

The best of a bad bunch is probably the Thursday July 30th and Friday July 31st morning sessions. The swell drops to 5 ft from the S, with a shorter 14-second period, and the wind is light cross-onshore. Still not clean, but it’s the biggest swell we’ll see. The combined energy is still in the 700-800 range, so there’s push, but the quality is just not there. It’s not a paddle-out you’ll remember.

Then we hit a wall. From Saturday August 1st, the bottom falls out. Swell drops below 3 ft, the period collapses, and the combined energy plummets into the 100-300 range. By Sunday August 2nd, we’re looking at 2 ft waves with 172 energy – that’s weak. The wind stays onshore or cross-on. This is a real dry spell.

From August 3rd through to the 11th, we’re in a long gap. The swell is tiny – 1.0 ft to 2 ft – with periods all over the place, but the energy is regularly below 200. One morning on August 6th has a 21-second period, but it’s only 1 ft. That’s pure ocean pulse, not a surfable wave. The wind is light, but it doesn’t matter because there’s nothing to ride. The Wednesday August 5th drops to 94 energy – that’s basically a lake.

There is a tiny flicker of life on August 7th and 8th, with the swell climbing back to 3 ft-3 ft and the energy hitting 442 on Saturday morning. But it’s still cross-on wind, and the direction is still SSW. The waves are small, weak, and messy. Not a single standout session in this whole run.

To be honest, for a break that’s fairly consistent, this is a grim outlook. It’s the kind of blank run that feels longer than it is. The forecasts can change, but for now, I wouldn’t bother suiting up unless you’re desperate for a paddle. This setup with the wind and small swell looks more interesting for kite surfing than a proper surf. The combined energy is just too low for anything fun.

Rusty.

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