Pipeline Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s be straight with you – this is a pretty flat run for the North Shore over the next fortnight. We’ve got Pipeline on the cards, but there’s not much to get excited about. The entire 16-day window is a long, drawn-out stretch of marginal to poor conditions, so don’t go cancelling any plans.

It kicks off Sunday the 12th with some small background SW swell, but that’s it. We’re looking at a 1 ft SW groundswell with a solid 16-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at best (403). The wind is a constant cross-off from the ENE at 18 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the wave quality is just poor. The water temperature here is 79°, which is dead average for this time of year. Nothing to write home about.

The whole first week stays locked in this rut. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th offer up the same story: small 1 ft to 2 ft SSW/SW swell, moderate energy readings in the 350–550 range, and that same persistent cross-off breeze. The surf is either poor or just marginal. The best you can say is the wind keeps it looking tidy, but there’s no power, no push.

By Wednesday the 16th, it gets even smaller – down to 1 ft – and the energy drops off a cliff. Thursday the 17th through to the end of the following week sees the swell hovering between below 1 ft and 2 ft, with combined energy readings often dipping below 200 and sometimes even below 100 (weak). That’s just limp. For a wave this heavy, it’s not even worth paddling out.

There is one blip on the radar on Thursday the 23rd of July. We get a little bump with a 1 ft SSW swell but a very long 22-second period. The combined energy jumps back up to 284 (moderate). But honestly, at that size, that long period is just going to make it fat and straight at a beach break. You’d need it at a river mouth or a reef, and even then, 1 ft is barely a ripple. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 15 mph. It’s marginal, not a standout.

The last few days, the 26th and 27th of July, are the closest we get to “something.” The swell lifts slightly to 2 ft from the SSW, periods in the 15-18 second range, and energy in the 300s. But again, that’s small for this break, and the quality is only ever described as marginal. The wind is consistently cross-off, which saves it from being a total write-off, but there is no single day in this entire period that I’d call worth the paddle out.

In short: it’s flat, it’s small, and the window is a long dud. Nothing for a surfer here. Keep the board in the car and wait.

Rusty

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