Pipeline Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu.

This is not a classic Pipeline swell. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf before anything gets interesting. The first real chance to get wet is on Monday, September 14th, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Monday, September 14th: We start with a tiny 1ft wave in the morning. The energy is low (163). It’s clean with a cross-off wind from the ENE at 12 mph, but the swell is from the SW with a very long 24-second period. That means the waves will have shape, but at 1ft, it’s barely a ripple. Water temp is a warm 80°, which is normal for the time of year. The afternoon inches up to 2ft but still marginal.

Tuesday 15th to Friday 18th: This whole stretch is a grind. Swell sits between 2ft and 3ft from the SSW. The period drops from 20 seconds to 15 seconds, so the quality fades. The energy gets into the moderate range (589 on Tuesday morning, peaking at 628 Friday morning), but the cross-off winds stay steady at 12-16 mph. It’s clean, but it’s small and weak. This is longboard or foil territory, not Pipe.

Saturday 19th to Thursday 24th: Things go flat. Swell stays around 2-3ft, but the scores drop to zero. Energy dips under 400, and the period shortens to 12-16 seconds. The wind is still cross-off but picks up to a fresh 19 mph at times. This is a gap of about 6 days with no real surf to recommend. It’s quiet.

Friday, September 25th: A little life. Morning has 3ft from the SSW with a 15-second period and energy back up to 542. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the NNE, but it’s cross-shore. The afternoon improves: 3ft, 15 seconds, 591 energy, with a lighter NNE breeze at 9 mph. It’s still cross-shore, but the surface is cleaner. For the first time in over a week, there’s something to ride.

Saturday, September 26th: The pick of the run. Morning has 3ft from the SSW, 14-second period, and energy of 520. The wind is a light 6 mph from the NNE – that’s almost glassy. The cross-shore is light with just small ripples. It’s still small for Pipe, but the conditions are the cleanest we’ve seen. This is your best session. Crowds at Pipeline are often heavy, but with surf this small, it might be a bit easier to find a wave.

Sunday 27th to Tuesday 29th: The swell tries to build. Sunday morning is 3ft with a 16-second period and 766 energy, but the wind swings to a light cross-on from the NNW. By Monday the 28th, the afternoon swell hits 4ft from the SSW with a very long 18-second period, and energy jumps to 1214 (strong) – the biggest of the forecast. But the wind is cross-on from the north at 9 mph, so there will be some chop. Tuesday the 29th has 4ft with 901 energy and light cross-on winds. This is the most powerful swell, but the wind direction holds it back. At 4ft, it’s fine for intermediates, but that long 18-second period will make the waves fat and walling at a beach break. Pipe is a reef, so it should handle it – but the cross-on wind is a bummer.

The standout is Saturday the 26th. The swell direction from the SSW matches the break’s optimum (WNW) better than anything else, the wind is nearly glassy, and the energy is moderate. It’s small, but it’s the cleanest window. If you only have one day, that’s it.

Stay patient, watch that Saturday morning, and skip the flat days.

Rusty.

Read more