Pipeline Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a yarn about the next couple of weeks on the North Shore.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first few days are pretty lackluster. We’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SW hanging around, but the wind is a solid cross-off, which does keep things clean, but the energy is weak (317). Friday's a write-off, just marginal at best. Saturday morning 12 September shapes up as the first real chance with the same 2ft SW swell and the wind easing to a gentle breeze, offering cleaner conditions and the energy bumps up a bit (338). Still, it's not lighting the world on fire.

The standout by a long shot is going to be Pipeline (Oahu). I know, I know, it's Pipeline. But look at Wednesday, 23 September. The morning is glassy – total glass – with a 2ft SW swell and a 17-second period. That's a proper groundswell pulse. The water temp is pretty much average for this time of year. The real magic happens that afternoon: calm, glassy conditions, a touch bigger at 2ft, and a 16-second period from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to 324 (moderate). For a spot that is fairly consistent, this is a genuine opportunity to get some clean, long-period waves. The crowds are often here, so expect company, but on a glassy day like that, it’s worth the paddle. That wedge off the reef is going to be doing its thing.

The middle of the week leading up to that is a slog. We see the swell tick up to 4ft by Friday 18 September, but the wind stays a moderate cross-off and the conditions are only ever called "marginal." The energy is high on the 17th and 18th (556-740), but the quality just isn't there for a good paddle surf – the swell is inconsistent and the period is a bit all over the place. If I was a kite surfer, I'd be looking at that wind and that open ocean exposure, but for us paddle guys, it's frustrating.

After that Wednesday high point, we lose it again. Thursday 24 September sees a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-shore wind which will mess up the surface. By the following weekend, it's back to tiny 3ft waves with cross-onshore winds. The energy is still moderate (508), but the wind is wrong. The run fades out completely by Monday 21 September, with the combined energy dropping to 96 and then 59 by Tuesday. By 23 September it picks up again, but that’s a long way out. The long and short of it: the 23rd is your day. Mark it.

Rusty

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