Pipeline Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The forecast is a bit of a slow burn for the next week and a half, so don't get too amped for the next few sessions. We're looking at a long stretch of small, weak swell, with a decent pulse arriving around the 18th, and the real standout window shaping up for the 24th and 25th. That's a couple of weeks out, so keep an eye on it, but it's got potential.

To start, the water's sitting around 79.7°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. Not worth a second thought.

Right now, through the 13th, it's pretty gutless. We're talking weak energy readings in the 200-350 range, with wave heights mostly down around 1.6ft to 2.3ft. The period is there, 15-18 seconds, but there's just no size behind it. The trade winds are blowing cross-off from the east, so it's clean, but there's nothing to ride. This is a waiting game.

The 14th and 15th see the energy just start to creep up a little, but it's still marginal. The 15th has a bit more push, with readings in the 400s, but the 2.6ft – 3ft of swell is just not doing it for the North Shore. The 16th and 17th stay in that same holding pattern, still clean but on the small side.

Now, the 18th is where things start to get a little more interesting. That afternoon we're looking at 3.9ft of SSW groundswell with the energy jumping up to the 700s. It's bigger, and the period is a solid 17 seconds, but the winds are up to 30 km/h from the east. That’s a bit of a fresh breeze and while it’s cross-off, it’ll probably be a bit lumpy. Then it drops back down pretty quickly.

The 19th through the 22nd is another lull. The swell backs off to under 3ft, and the energy drops out of it. The 21st and 22nd are particularly poor, with energy readings down in the 100-200 range. Just a flat spell.

Then, the whole picture changes. The 23rd sees the swell pick up again to around 3ft, but the wind goes a bit cross-shore. It's the 24th and 25th that are the real deal. On the 24th, a 3.3ft SSW groundswell lines up with a glassy morning and light offshore winds. The energy is up in the 500s, and that’s when Pipeline will be at its cleanest and most organized. The 25th looks nearly as good, with the wind dropping to near nothing and glassy conditions both morning and afternoon.

For the standout, I'm calling the 24th of September. The morning glass is the key here; it’s going to make the 3.3ft of SSW swell (period 16 seconds) look a lot more fun than the size suggests. The 25th is the backup, but the 24th is the one.

One thing to remember about Pipeline: it's a reef break, and it's fairly consistent but can be inconsistent at times. It's exposed, it sees all the swell, and the crowds are often there when it's good. When it's this small and clean, it can be a bit more user-friendly, but it's still a heavy wave. The direction is a solid WNW optimum for the spot, so this SSW swell should wrap in nicely.

Keep the next few days off, don't waste the energy. Save your self for late September.

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