Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe at Church.

Honestly, for the next week and a half, it’s a bit of a slow grind. We’ve got a long patch of small, messy waves with winds that just won’t play ball. The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—pretty pleasant for a paddle, but the ocean’s not giving us much to work with. The combined swell energy is mostly moderate (between 203 and 871), but the quality just isn't there.

From Monday 13 July through to about Wednesday 22 July, the swell is tiny, mostly 1ft to 3ft, and coming from the SSW or SW. The wind is either a light or gentle cross-onshore, which is keeping things choppy and messy. There’s a few moments of light offshore wind on Wednesday morning 15 July and again on Saturday 18 July, but the swell is just too small—1ft to 3ft—to get excited about. The period hangs around 13 to 18 seconds, so there’s some long-period groundswell character, but the wave height is too weak to make it count at this exposed beach and point setup.

Now, if you’re willing to wait, there is a glimmer. Around Thursday 23 July and Friday 24 July, we see a jump in size. Swell hits 6ft on Thursday morning from the south with a 14-second period, and the combined energy cranks up into a strong 1368. That’s real energy, but it’s pushing into the “too big for beginners” territory at 6ft, and it’s still looking like marginal surf conditions with cross-onshore winds on Friday.

The real standout of the whole 16-day window is Thursday 23 July. The morning has 6ft S swell with a 14-second period, light offshore wind from the WSW at just 3 mph, and the combined energy is a solid 1368. The afternoon holds similar with 6ft and clean offshore wind. This is the best shot at proper, clean surf at Church. The swell direction from the south is right in the optimum slot for the break, and that light offshore will groom it up nicely. It’s an advanced wave at this size, so only for the experienced crew. Expect crowds to be an issue—this one will draw a crowd. If you can sneak out on Thursday morning, that’s the call.

After that pulse, it starts to fade into the last weekend of July, with smaller 2ft to 5ft swell and cross-on winds returning.

For the whole stretch, there are no other true standouts. The first week is a write-off, then Thursday 23 July is the one to circle. If you miss that, there’s nothing else worth paddling out for until maybe the very end of the month, when the swell tries to pick up again but the wind is iffy.

Keep an eye on the charts—things can change.

Rusty.

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