Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be real – this forecast is a tough one to swallow. Over the next 16 days, we’ve got a long wait for anything half decent, and even then, the conditions are fighting us every step. The first surfable day shows up on Friday, August 28, but it’s a marginal call. There are big gaps where I just can’t tell you to paddle out.

The only spot in the mix is Church, an advanced-level beach and point that’s always packed, very consistent, and takes swell from the SW.

Friday, August 28 kicks things off with a long-period groundswell – 3 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and combined wave energy sits at 515 (moderate). Water temp is 74°F, which is 6°F warmer than normal – pretty unusual for this time of year. But the wind is a light onshore breeze from the SSW at 6 mph. It’s clean-ish, but the report calls it marginal. Friday afternoon is similar: 2 ft, 19-second period, same onshore wind.

Saturday, August 29 bumps up to 4 ft from the SSW, 17-second period, and combined energy hits 760 (moderate). Morning has a light onshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph, but the afternoon turns cross-onshore from the W at 9 mph, which will mess with the surface.

Sunday, August 30 is more of the same – 4 ft SSW, 15-second period, but cross-onshore winds all day. Energy drops to 664.

From Monday, August 31 through Wednesday, September 2, it’s a total dud. Swell drops to 2 ft–3 ft, periods get shorter, and cross-onshore winds are relentless. Scores are zero. Save your energy.

We get a little bump on Thursday, September 3 with 4 ft SSW at 15 seconds, combined energy up to 848 (moderate). Morning has a light onshore wind from the SW at 6 mph, but the afternoon goes cross-onshore from the WSW at 9 mph. Still marginal.

Friday, September 4 has 3 ft SSW at 17 seconds in the morning, with a light onshore breeze from the SSW. Energy is 901 – moderate. Afternoon turns cross-onshore again. Marginal.

From Saturday, September 5 to Thursday, September 10, it’s a slog. Swell sits between 2 ft and 4 ft, periods from 14 to 18 seconds, but cross-onshore winds are a constant problem. Scores are mostly zero. A few mornings have light cross-onshore with small wind ripples. Nothing to write home about.

Now, Friday, September 11 and Saturday, September 12 are the only real highlights, but they’re not perfect. On Friday the 11th, the swell builds: morning has 4 ft from the S at 14 seconds, but wind is a moderate cross-onshore from the S at 12 mph – that’s choppy. The afternoon gets better size: 5 ft from the S at 14 seconds, and combined energy jumps to 1042 – that’s strong energy. But again, cross-onshore from the SSE at 12 mph. Marginal, and with Church always crowded, it’ll be a scrap.

Saturday, September 12 morning is the best bet – 5 ft from the S at 13 seconds, with a moderate cross-onshore from the S at 9 mph. Combined energy is 941 (strong). That 5 ft is getting into the too-big-for-beginners zone, and the period is under 15 seconds, so it’s not that long-period groundswell that makes paddling out easier. The afternoon drops to 3 ft from the SSW at 14 seconds. Still cross-onshore.

So, if you’re dead set on getting wet, Saturday, September 12 morning is your best window – 5 ft S swell, strong energy, but cross-onshore wind and a crowded lineup. For advanced surfers only. Everything else is too small, too onshore, or just plain messy. It’s one of those runs where patience is the name of the game.

Rusty.

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