Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for this stretch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the 16-day window for Church (this is a beach and point setup, exposed to the SW) is a bit of a tough watch. The water’s sitting at a balmy 74°F which is a full 7°F warmer than usual, so that’s very unusual for this time of year. Feels like a warm bath, but the surf just isn’t cooperating.

We’re looking at a long dry spell here. For the first few days, from Tuesday the 11th right through to the end of the week, the score is a big, fat zero. It’s not worth paddling out. The wind is coming from the WSW and W, always cross-on or on, and the waves are small, messy, and gutless. The combined energy is weak to moderate – between 222 and 475 (moderate wave energy) – but it’s all for nothing with that wind. The swell is tiny, between 2ft and 3ft, and the period is long (13 to 18 seconds), but it’s just being chopped to pieces.

We do start to see a slight shift heading into the second week. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th the scores creep up to a 1, but it’s still just “marginal.” The swell picks up a little – hitting around 4ft on the Saturday afternoon – and the energy is building, showing 717 (strong wave energy) on that Saturday arvo. But the wind is still cross-on from the WSW, so it’s never going to be clean. Still, if you’re desperate, Saturday morning might be the best of a bad bunch, with a 3ft SSW swell and 16 second period, but it’s a long shot.

Sunday the 16th morning is the only real standout of the whole run, and even then it’s a 2 out of 10. The swell is 4ft from the SW, period of 16 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-on from the WSW. The energy is a solid 581 (moderate wave energy). It’s not going to be epic, but it might be the one window where the waves have a bit of shape and aren’t completely blown out. That’s your best bet.

After that, it’s back to the same old story. The rest of the week from the 17th onward is a slog of poor conditions, small surf, and that annoying cross-on wind. The wave heights are tiny, dropping to 1ft by the 22nd, and the energy is weak. There’s a tiny flicker on the 26th with a 3ft SW swell and 676 energy (strong wave energy), but again, it’s cross-on and only a 1 out of 10.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, the only window worth even looking at is the morning of Sunday the 16th. The rest is a write-off. This is a period where the forecast is more reliable near-term, and the long-range looks promising in energy but not in quality. If you’re a kite surfer, all that cross-on wind might be your jam, but for a paddle surfer, this is a lean run.

Stay tuned, but for now, keep the board in the car.

Rusty.

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