Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is your local surf outlook from me, Rusty.

We’ve got a solid run of swell on the way for Church, but the wind is going to be the main character for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 76°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – you’re basically surfing in a warm bath. The first decent pulse arrives on Thursday afternoon, but it’s a bit of a tease with cross-on wind making it choppy.

Thursday afternoon the swell is 3ft from the SSW with a very long period of 18 seconds, but the wind is cross-on from the WSW at 9 mph, so expect bumpy conditions. The combined energy is moderate at 534. It’s just a peek, not really worth the paddle.

Friday sees the swell nudge up to 3ft, still SSW, period 17 seconds. The morning has offshore wind from the SSW at 6 mph, which sounds promising, but the data tells me the potential is still marked as marginal. By the afternoon, the cross-on wind is back. The energy is building, though, at 680 then 798.

Saturday morning, we’re at 3ft SSW, 16 seconds, still cross-on from the W at 6 mph. The afternoon bumps up to 4ft from the S, period 14 seconds, and the combined energy jumps into the strong range at 1217. But it’s still cross-on, so you’ll be sharing the bumps with some wind chop.

Sunday morning is the first real jump in size: 6ft from the S, period 14 seconds, energy at 1481, but the wind is cross-on from the WNW. Sunday afternoon is the standout of the whole forecast. We get a bit of magic: 6ft from the S, period 13 seconds, and the wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NNW at just 3 mph. That’s clean, that’s lined up, and the energy is still strong at 1328. This is the window for experienced surfers, and for Church, being a very consistent break, you can expect a crowd given it’s always busy. That period is a little shorter, so it won’t be as fat and walled-up as the longer period stuff. This is your best bet.

Monday drops a bit, size is 7ft from the SSW, 14 seconds, but the cross-on wind from the W at 9 mph chops it up. Tuesday the same story – 6ft to 6ft, but the wind is cross-on and on Tuesday afternoon gets a bit stronger at 12 mph, making it choppy. The energy is still very strong in these days (1250-1529).

From Wednesday, September 9th, the swell begins to fade. Wednesday afternoon drops to 4ft and the conditions are rated as poor. By the end of the first week into the second, the writing is on the wall. From September 10th to the 18th, we see a steady decline. The swell size drops from 3ft down to a tiny 1ft. The period starts to drop but then throws a weird long period of 22 seconds on the 17th with 2ft, which is just a recipe for slow, wobbly lines. Winds are consistently cross-on or onshore. The energy drops from moderate (727) all the way down to weak (186). There are no other surfable windows in this period. It’s a long, flat, blown-out run from the 10th onward – about a week of poor conditions.

For a rare mention, the swell on Thursday, September 17th has a period of 22 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell. With that tiny 2ft size and cross-on wind, it’s not worth chasing at a beach-and-point break like Church. It would just break straight and be a mess.

So, if you’re looking for the best, that Sunday afternoon, September 6th, is your only true standout. Get on it.

Rusty.

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