Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Straight up, the next couple of weeks are gonna test your patience if you’re chasing clean waves at Church. This stretch is looking pretty flat and messy for the most part, with onshore winds and small, short-period swell. It’s more of a “clean the cobwebs off the board” kind of forecast than a “call in sick” one. Water temps are sitting at 75°, which is a solid 8° warmer than usual for this time of year, so you can get away with just a spring suit – pretty special for August.

We’ve got a real quiet spell to start. From Saturday the 8th through to Wednesday the 12th, there’s basically nothing worth paddling out for. Swell is tiny, down around 2-3ft, with periods mostly in that 13-16 second range, and the wind is constantly on it or cross-onshore. The wave energy numbers are pretty weak to moderate at best (359 down to 221), and the calls are all “poor surf conditions.” It’s a classic case of more of a dribble than a wave – save the energy.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Thursday the 13th. It’s still small, 2-2ft, but the energy starts to build a touch. Then Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th look like the only window where things might get slightly interesting. The swell bumps up to 3-4ft, and the period stretches out to 18 seconds on Friday. That’s a long-period groundswell for sure, which means more push, but it’s coming from the SSW while the break really wants SW. The energy numbers finally climb into the moderate zone (543 and 656), but the wind is still cross-onshore, so the surface is going to be lumpy. It’s a “could be a few sneaky ones if you pick the banks” kind of situation, not a clean session. Don’t expect perfection. The swell also dips a bit into Saturday afternoon with the wind picking up to 12 mph, so the morning will be your best bet.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th fade back into the poor category. The energy drops (463 and then 403), the period shortens, and the wind stays cross-onshore. We’re back to small, junky waves. The rest of the second week, from Tuesday the 19th through to Sunday the 23rd, is a real grind. The swell lingers in that 2-3ft zone, periods drop back to 13-15 seconds, and the energy numbers sink into the weak-to-moderate range (438 down to 195). It’s all “poor surf conditions” with the occasional “marginal” call, but nothing that screams “go.” The wind is up and down but never truly offshore. Honestly, it’s looking like a blank run for the most part, and on a spot like Church, that’s not too unusual. If you’re desperate, you might find a knee-high burger on the better tides, but don’t get your hopes up. With the swell as small and weak as it is, and the constant onshores, this setup might honestly be more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the Friday the 14th morning session. It’s got the longest period (18s) and the most energy (656) of the whole window, and the swell is from the SSW. It’s not big or clean, but it’s the closest we get to any real potential. Everything after that is a waiting game. Long-range calls for the second week are less certain, but as it stands, nothing is firing.

Stay patient, keep the quiver waxed, and maybe check back closer to the time.

Rusty.

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