Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and we’re looking at the surf ahead for Church. It’s a beach and point setup, and honestly, it’s a pretty flat and frustrating run for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing really special coming up.

The forecast starts with a little pulse of swell on Tuesday, August 25th. We’re seeing a 2ft SW swell with some seriously long period, 16 seconds, which gives it some grunt. The combined energy is moderate at 400, but the water temp is sitting at a very unusual 73°, a massive 5° warmer than average. That’s a standout in itself. But the wind is blowing straight on from the SW at 6 mph, so it’s messy. The comment keeps calling it “marginal,” which is a polite way of saying it’s not worth paddling out. The real issue is consistency—or lack thereof—and that onshore breeze.

That pattern sets the tone for the whole run. For the next week and a half, we bounce between small south and southwest swells, mostly around 3ft to 4ft. The periods are long, hitting 12 to 19 seconds, which is groundswell, but the wind is stuck on or cross-on from the SW or WSW nearly every session. Wednesday the 26th morning has a 4ft S swell at 12 seconds (combined energy 807), but with that onshore wind again, it’s not the clean wave you want. It’s all a bit “kook’s breakfast” – a lot of energy, but poor form.

There’s a bit of a lift around Saturday, September 5th, with a 4ft SSW swell at 16 seconds and combined energy of 780 (moderate, nudging strong). The wind is cross-on at 6 mph, which isn’t terrible, but not the glassy conditions you need to make it shine. This spot is a beach and point, so that long-period swell is better at the point, but the cross-wind will chop it up.

After that, it fades into a string of minimal surf and more onshore or cross-onshore winds, with heights dropping below 3ft and the condition comments turning to “poor.” From around September 6th onward, it’s just not doing anything. We’re talking nine days of flat or near-flat junk.

The only break on offer is Church, and while it’s very consistent for the region, the quality just isn’t there for paddle surfing this time. With the persistent onshore flow and small, long-period swell, this setup actually looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a traditional surfer.

Rusty.

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