Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grim times ahead, folks. The next couple of weeks are looking seriously flat and mostly onshore, so we're going to have to scrape for anything rideable. The ocean's got some energy in the water in the coming days, but it's all staying pretty small, and the wind's just not playing nice.

Right now, for Tuesday afternoon, we've got a bit of a pulse of swell pushing in at around 3ft from the SSW. But it's coming with a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore wind from the NW, and the ocean's going to be lumpy, chopped-up mess. Not worth your time. The water's at 73°F, which is a solid 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that's pretty notable, so at least you'll be comfortable while you're sitting there staring at the flatness.

The next few days are all marginal at best. Wednesday morning drops to 2ft but it's a super long-period groundswell at 16 seconds, coming cross-on from the west with a light breeze. That long period is always tempting because it means real energy, but with such a small size, it's going to be dribbly and mostly closing out. Thursday isn't much better – 3ft again, but the period's still long, and the wind's still cross-on. It's just not coming together. We're looking at a real run of nothing, with very poor conditions through Friday, Saturday, and into Sunday morning. The energy numbers are hovering around 200-300, which is weak to moderate at best.

Then the swell just fades away into nothing. By Sunday afternoon and into Monday, we're down to 1ft. That's barely a ripple. The period's still long, so there's the ghost of a groundswell, but it's not doing anything for us. The whole of next week is looking like a write-off – still blowy and small.

The real glimmer of hope comes about a week and a half out. From the 19th and 20th, we finally see the wind ease off to light breezes, and the swell starts to push back up to around 3-3ft from the SW with a solid 17-18 second period. The energy numbers start climbing too, getting up into the 500s and 600s – that's solid, moderate energy. This is the best of the whole period, but it's still only knee-high. Church is a super consistent break, so it'll probably have something, but it's also an exposed beach and point that'll have plenty of lumps in it.

By the 21st and 22nd, we're seeing the same story – 3ft of SW groundswell, light winds, and energy in the 600s. It's promising, but it's still just not big enough to get excited about. It could be a really clean, glassy day with a few fun runners, but you'll be on the longboard for sure.

So that's the long-range promise. The first week is basically dead, and the second week offers some clean, small waves that could be fun if you're desperate. The standouts, if you can call them that, look like the 20th through the 22nd – still small, but with that long-period SW swell and light winds, it's the best we're going to get.

Rusty.

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