Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got a long look at the Church break for you. This stretch is a beach and point setup, exposed to the swell, and it's a consistent spot for advanced surfers. The water temperature is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, the next few days are a bit of a grind. We’ve got a weak run of surf coming in. The energy is low, with combined swell energy readings hanging around the 600 to 800 mark (moderate), but the conditions are just not cooperating. For Wednesday, August 26th, we’re looking at 4ft swell from the south, with a 12-second period, but the wind is on it or cross-shore, so it’s messy. The guidance calls this a marginal surf forecast, and I’m with that. Not worth paddling out for.

Thursday, August 27th is more of the same, maybe a touch smaller. By Friday, August 28th, the swell drops to 3ft, and the period jumps to 17 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell. That’s interesting for a point break like Church, but the energy is weak (491) and the conditions are poor. It’s a pass.

We see a little bump in size on Saturday, August 29th, with 4ft to 4ft swell from the south-southwest, and a long 16-17 second period, but the wind is cross-on, so the surface is going to be a bit bumpy. Still, the energy is moderate (771-804), and if you’re desperate, it might be a session. Not a standout.

Sunday, August 30th through Monday, August 31st is a drop-off again. Swell sits around 3ft to 4ft, but the wind is wrong or the conditions are just poor. Not your time.

Now, here’s where it gets a little more interesting. On Tuesday, September 1st, we get a bump back up to 4ft from the south, with a 12-second period. The wind is light and onshore, so it’s not perfect, but it’s a step up from the previous days. The energy is moderate (570). Still marginal.

But the real highlight of this whole 16-day window looks like it’s going to be Thursday, September 3rd. We’ve got 6ft swell from the south-southwest, with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is pushing into the strong range at 1017. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is manageable. This is the best size and energy we see, and for a point break, that’s a solid session. It’s still not glassy, but it’s the closest we get to good surf. The crowds at Church are always an issue, so expect company.

After that, things fade out again. Friday, September 4th, the swell drops to 3ft, and the wind picks up to a moderate breeze, making it choppy. The weekend of September 5th and 6th is poor, with moderate winds and poor conditions. The energy drops off, and the guidance is calling it poor surf. Not worth a look.

The very end of the window, around September 8th to 10th, we see a small pulse of long-period swell (17-19 seconds) but it’s small, around 2ft to 3ft, and the wind is cross-on. The energy is still moderate, but the conditions are marginal at best. Nothing to get excited about.

So, the standout here is Thursday, September 3rd. That’s your best bet for the biggest swell and the most energy. The rest of the run is mostly a waiting game. For a break that’s very consistent, it’s a bit of a quiet spell, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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