Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, groms, Rusty here. Let's cut through the hype: the next two weeks are looking pretty bleak. We've got a lot of small, weak swell and not much behind it. The 16-day outlook starts slow, but there might be a glimmer of hope way out at the tail end.

From the get-go, the surf at Church is tiny. We're talking ankle-biters with a 0.8 to 1.0 ft swell, and the energy is weak—combined energy values are mostly below 428. To make it worse, the wind is cross-onshore for the first few days, which will chop up what little there is. Not worth getting wet for. The water temp is a balmy 74°, which is a massive 6° warmer than usual for this time of year, so the suit will be thin, but you'll just be floating around.

The first week is a total loss. From the 15th through the 21st, the swell stays under 3 ft, and the energy is weak. There are some periods with light onshore winds, but the waves are just too small and gutless. It's a lot of paddling for nothing. Maybe go for a swim or check the tide pools.

We hit rock bottom around the 21st and 22nd, with swell dropping to 1 ft. That's basically flat. A long stretch of nothing.

Then, around the 23rd, the period stretches out, getting into the 17-19 second range. This is proper groundswell, but there's still no size. We're talking 2 ft to 2 ft of swell, so while the energy is a bit better, it's still not rideable. The long period means shape would be good if there was any size, but there isn't.

Now, here's the thing to keep an eye on. Way out at the end of the forecast, on the 28th and 29th of August, the energy finally starts to build. We see values jump over 1000, and the swell bumps up to 4 ft to 4 ft. The period is still solid at 16-18 seconds, which is good. This is the most promising window we have. It's not huge, but it's a step in the right direction. The winds are still a bit cross-onshore, but light, so there's a chance for some cleaner lines. Keep your fingers crossed for this one.

So, the plan is simple: sit tight for the next week and a half. Don't even bother with the board. Maybe give the kite a thought if you're desperate, because with this weak swell and cross-shore breezes, that could be more fun than surfing. The setup at Church looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now. Then, when we get to the 28th, start paying attention. That’s our best shot at a wave, but remember, it's a week and a half out, so don't book your flights just yet. Forecasts can change.

Stay patient.

- Rusty

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