Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, looking at the 16-day window for Church, there's a tricky start. The first proper surf recommendation doesn't kick in until Tuesday, September 8th, with a small, marginal window. Before that, Monday September 7th is a write-off – we’ve got a solid 6ft swell from the SSW, but a nasty 16 mph cross-wind from the WNW is just chopping it all to pieces. That’s a no-go.

The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 73°, a full 6° warmer than normal for this time of year. It feels like a bathtub out there.

Now, the standout in this whole forecast. Keep your eyes on Sunday, September 20th, and Monday, September 21st. The swell direction is a clean SW, which is right in the sweet spot for Church. We’re looking at a solid 3ft to 3ft of swell, but the real story is the period hitting 18-19 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 616-687. The wind is forecast to be light and *onshore* from the SSW or SW, which is a bit of a bummer, but it's only a light breeze. It’s the best consistency and quality on offer in the whole run, and it’s an advanced spot that’s *very consistent* and always exposed. Expect crowds, because it’s always packed.

The earlier part of the week, from Tuesday the 8th through Saturday the 13th, is mostly marginal. You’ll see knee to waist-high waves (2ft to 4ft) with a mix of cross and cross-onshore winds. The periods are decent, 10 to 17 seconds, but the wind just keeps it from being clean. The best of that early run is probably Wednesday morning, September 9th, with a glassy 2ft from the SSW and a very long 16-second period, and light cross-shore wind. It’s tiny but clean.

The second week, from the 15th onward, is a waiting game. The swells are small, mostly 1ft to 3ft, but the periods are long (15-20 seconds), which is promising. The winds are light. It’s not until the 20th and 21st that it all comes together. The long period groundswell is best for a point and reef setup like this, so it should offer some nice lines, even if it’s a touch small. It’s a promising but less certain call that far out.

To sum it up: the first week is a salvage operation for small, clean windows. The second week, specifically the 20th and 21st, is the real target. If you want the best surf, that’s your window.

Rusty.

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