Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the Church stretch over the next couple of weeks.

Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell trying to push through, but the wind is gonna be a real pain for most of the first week. The best windows of opportunity will be when that wind drops right off and we get some clean glassy conditions. The standout sessions look to be on the morning of Saturday the 25th and again on Monday the 27th.

The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Tuesday 21st July kicks off with a 4ft SSW swell running at a very long 16 seconds. That’s got some serious energy behind it (858 combined energy) but it’s a bit of a tease. The wind is onshore and messy, so it’s more of a look-and-see than a paddle-out. The afternoon just gets worse with a cross-onshore breeze, so don’t bother.

Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd are pretty much write-offs. The swell drops a bit and the cross-onshore wind keeps everything choppy and uninviting. You’ll be fighting the wind more than the wave.

Friday 24th July is a weird one. We get a tiny 2ft swell but with a monster 24-second period. That’s proper groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely breaking. The wind is light but cross-onshore, so it’s a no-go for a proper surf. The energy is moderate (874), but it’s just not enough height.

Saturday 25th July – This is where it gets interesting. The morning shows 3ft of SW swell with a 21-second period. The combined energy jumps up to 1011, which is solid. But the real winner here is the wind: light and onshore from the southwest. That’s glassy, clean conditions. For an advanced break like this, that’s a beautiful thing. If you’re an experienced surfer, get out there early. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and the long-period lines will have some shape. The crowds are a guarantee here, but with conditions this good, it’s worth the hassle.

Sunday 26th and Monday 27th July keep the same vibe. The swell holds around 3ft to 4ft with long periods (18-19 seconds) and light winds. Monday morning edges ahead with a combined energy of 1093, so it’s got a bit more grunt. Again, the onshore wind means clean faces. Monday is a solid shout.

Tuesday 28th through Thursday 30th see the wind shift cross-onshore again, stirring up a bit of chop. The swell is still there (4ft to 4ft, 15-17 seconds) but the quality drops. The energy is still moderate to strong (1066-689), but it’s not as clean as the weekend.

Friday 31st July – The swell size jumps up to 7ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, with a 15-second period. That’s a lot of water moving, with energy reaching 2246. But the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. At this size, it’s expert-only territory. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

Saturday 1st August drops back to 6ft with a shorter 12-second period. The winds are lighter, but it’s still a bit messy. A strong session for experienced surfers only.

From Sunday 2nd August onwards, the whole thing fades fast. Swell drops to 2ft-2ft, the energy is weak (below 250), and the conditions are poor. We’re looking at a blank run of a few days here. It’s a quiet end to the outlook.

The Verdict: If you can, get on it Saturday morning the 25th or Monday morning the 27th of July. Clean, glassy conditions with a long-period groundswell. That’s as good as it gets in this window.

Rusty.

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