Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Church over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, it’s a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, quiet run with hardly anything to get excited about. The first week is pretty much a write-off with poor surf conditions. The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 76°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – you might not even need a springsuit.

For Sunday the 2nd, it’s a no-go. Tiny 2 ft SW swell with a light cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is weak at 186, and the report says it’s poor. That theme carries right through the week. Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th stay small, with swell hovering around 1 ft to 2 ft. The wind mostly stays light and onshore or cross-onshore, keeping things messy. The energy stays low, in the 100s, and the surf quality is just poor.

Friday the 7th sees a bit of a pulse. The swell bumps up to 2 ft from the SSW, and the period stretches to 19 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 447, which is moderate. But here’s the kicker: the wind is a cross-onshore 9 mph from the SSW, and conditions are described as “fairly choppy.” It’s only given a marginal call at best. This long-period swell will want a point or reef to wrap around, not a beach setup in choppy wind, so don’t expect perfection.

The weekend of the 9th and 10th is more of the same. Swell holds around 3 ft to 3 ft, still with that long-period energy, but the wind stays light and onshore. The energy readings are moderate, peaking at 443 on Sunday the 9th, but again, the surf quality is flagged as poor or marginal. Not the kind of conditions that’ll have you paddling out with a grin.

Now, the second week is where things get slightly more interesting, but it’s still a waiting game. Starting around Wednesday the 14th, we see a bit more size. Friday the 14th afternoon brings a 4 ft SW swell with an 18-second period and a combined energy of 781 – that’s moderate-strong energy and the biggest of the whole outlook. The wind is light and offshore from the WSW at 6 mph. For the first time, we’ve got clean conditions with some proper push. The surf quality is still listed as marginal, but this is the one to keep an eye on. It’s still over a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Saturday the 15th holds similar size at 3 ft, but the wind shifts to a cross-onshore W at 9 mph, which will mess up the surface. Sunday the 16th starts okay with a light cross-onshore, but the afternoon gets blown out by a moderate 12 mph WNW cross-onshore.

The standout: Honestly, there’s only one session that even gets close to a call. Friday the 14th afternoon at Church – that 4 ft SW swell with 18-second intervals and light offshore wind is your best bet. The energy is solid (781), and the direction matches the optimum swell direction from the SW. It’s not firing, but if you’re desperate, that’s the window. Expect crowds to be a real issue here – this spot is always busy, and the lack of options elsewhere will have everyone on it.

For everything else? Keep the board in the car, check the cam, and hope the forecasts tighten up.

Rusty.

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