Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s cookin’ this week and beyond.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next few days are a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell rollin’ in from the SSW, with period hangin’ around 16 to 18 seconds, so there’s plenty of energy in the water (moderate wave energy around 499 to 883). The issue is the wind. We’re lookin’ at a persistent cross-onshore breeze swingin’ from WSW to W, and that’s messin’ with the surface. It’s choppy, it’s bumpy, and for an advanced spot like Church, it’s just not lettin’ the waves line up properly. Water temp is sittin’ at 68°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – not a bad thing for a session, but it’s the wind that’s the killer.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Saturday the 11th in the afternoon. The wind drops right out – we’re talkin’ glassy conditions, calm as a millpond. Swell is still a modest 3 ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 408. For Church, a beach and point setup, that long period can be a bit straight on the beach sections, but the point should handle it beautifully. This is your window for a clean, mellow session. It won’t be massive, but it’ll be quality. Crowds? Expect a few – this spot gets busy, and with conditions like that, the regulars will be out.

The rest of the week after that drops back into the doldrums. Monday the 13th through to Thursday the 17th is a write-off. Swell drops right down to 1 ft to 2 ft, energy fades into the low hundreds, and the cross-onshore wind is back. Honestly, it’s not worth paddlin’ out unless you’re desperate for a float.

Then we get a bit of a tease toward the end of the run. Saturday the 18th, early – we see a bit of a pulse pick up, 3 ft from the SW with 17-second period, moderate energy at 510, and a light onshore breeze at 5 km/h. It’s still marginal, but the tide might help. The real standout though? Monday the 20th. Swell builds to 4 ft in the morning, touchin’ 5 ft by the afternoon, both from the SSW, with period around 14 to 15 seconds. Combined energy climbs to 921 – that’s solid moderate energy, knockin’ on the door of strong. Wind is light – 10 km/h from the W, just a light cross-onshore, so the surface should be workable. This is your best bet of the whole outlook. Keep in mind that 5 ft with that period is gonna have some push; it’s a bit much for beginners, but for the advanced crew at Church – a consistent, exposed point – this could be a proper session. Crowds will be there, but when the swell’s this clean and consistent, it’s worth the company.

So, if you’re askin’ me: Saturday 11th afternoon for the glassy, easy waves, and Monday 20th for the size and power. The rest is a bit of a battle with the wind. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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