Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty here with a look at what Church has on the cards for the next couple of weeks. Now, I gotta be straight with you—this isn’t going to be one for the history books. The data tells me we’ve got a bit of a slow burner here, and the real action might take a bit of patience.

The first decent run of surf kicks off on Saturday the 25th of July, but don’t get too excited just yet. The conditions are described as marginal, so we’re not looking at perfection. It’s an advanced-level spot, and it breaks consistently, which is the one saving grace. The water temperature is sitting at 71°F, which is a solid 5°F warmer than what’s normal for this time of year—definitely a standout, that’s very unusual warmth. You’ll want a thin suit or maybe just a rashie.

Right, let’s get into it. Saturday the 25th sees a long-period SSW groundswell of 3ft coming in with a 21-second period. That’s a proper, very long period swell, which brings heaps of energy but can straighten out at beach breaks. At Church, which is a beach and point setup, it should wrap in a bit better. The wind is light and onshore, which isn't ideal, but it’s not howling. The combined swell energy is moderate (911). Honestly, it’s a looker for the advanced crew, but the onshore breeze and “marginal surf” tag means I’d keep the expectations low.

Through the rest of the week, the swell slowly ticks up. By Monday the 27th, we’re seeing 4ft from the SSW with an 18-second period and solid combined energy (1146). Still, the onshore wind is going to mess with the surface. This pattern sticks around: waist-to-chest high sets, plenty of energy in the water, but the wind keeps it from being a real standout.

Now, hold onto your leash. The best chance we get looks like Thursday the 30th of July into Friday the 31st. On Thursday afternoon, the swell pushes to 5ft from the south with a 14-second period, and the energy jumps to moderate (1029). The wind goes light and onshore, which is still not perfect but much better. The real pick, though, is Friday the 31st. The morning session shows a solid 6ft south swell, a 14-second period, and the combined energy really pumps up (1505). That’s strong energy for this area. The wind is light onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy, but for the advanced surfers out there, this is your window. This is the standout of the whole outlook. Swell is getting towards the 7ft mark, so it’s going to be a proper challenge—experts only after 8ft, and this is close to that territory.

After that peak, it’s a slow fade into August. The first few days of the new month will still have some rideable swell, around 5ft, but the energy drops off and the wind starts to turn more cross-on. Then, from Sunday the 2nd of August onward, it’s pretty much game over. The swell drops to under 3ft, the energy readings are weak (values down in the 100-200 range), and the conditions are described as poor. That gap of poor conditions lasts for the next week, all the way through to Sunday the 9th of August. Don’t bother paddling out during that period—nothing happening.

So, to sum it up: if you’re an advanced surfer looking for a challenge, pencil in Friday the 31st of July for the best size and energy. It won’t be glassy, but it’ll be the most juice on offer. For the rest of us, the first week is just a tease, and the second week is a flat spell. That’s the story for Church this time around.

Rusty.

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