Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here. I’ve had a good look through the numbers for Church, and truth be told, it’s a bit of a rough stretch ahead. This spot is a serious wave – a beach and point setup that’s for advanced surfers only, and it’s very consistent, but the wind and swell just aren’t lining up for a while.

For the next week and a half, we’ve got a long, frustrating gap. From Wednesday the 8th of July right through to Friday the 17th of July, it’s a write-off. The swell is there, hovering around 1ft to 4ft, and it’s a long-period groundswell out of the SSW (16 seconds), which usually means power. However, the wind is all wrong. Nearly every session has a cross-onshore breeze, making it choppy and bumpy. The wave energy is moderate, sitting between 153 and 898 combined energy, but the quality is just poor. It’s the kind of setup where you’d be better off with a kite than a paddleboard.

Now, let’s talk about the water. It’s sitting at 68°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a slight anomaly of 2°. That’s notable, but won’t save a bad surf session.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Saturday the 18th of July. The morning looks magic. We’ve got a glassy ocean – the wind is flat calm – and a 3ft SSW swell with an 18-second period. That’s a proper, very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a moderate 468. Because it’s a point break, that long period will wrap in nicely and offer up some clean, workable runners. It’s not huge, but it will be the cleanest surf in the whole outlook. That Saturday morning is the clear standout. Just be prepared for a crowd – it’s always busy here.

Sunday the 19th of July sees a jump in size, with a 5ft southerly swell in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon. The energy jumps to 1696 and 1823 respectively – strong, powerful stuff. But the wind goes cross-onshore again, which is a shame because that size would be great. The period drops to 14-16 seconds, still solid but not the perfection of Saturday.

Looking into the third week, around Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd of July, there are hints of more SSW swell in the 3ft to 5ft range, but again the wind looks tricky. The 23rd afternoon shows a jump in energy to 1440 with a 5ft S swell, but the cross-onshore breeze kills the vibe. At this range, it’s promising but far from certain.

Honestly, the only session worth really getting excited about is that Saturday morning the 18th. It’s a glassy, clean window on a solid wave. The rest of the run, you’re waiting.

Rusty.

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