Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Church. It’s a beach and point setup, exposed to the swell, and it’s an advanced wave that’s very consistent. The vibe is that it’s always packed, so you’ll have company.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty frustrating run. The water temperature is a toasty 76°, which is a whopping 9° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, almost like a bath. But the surf? It’s a struggle. From Thursday the 6th through to the morning of Tuesday the 11th, it’s just poor. The swell is tiny, mostly around 2ft to 3ft from the SSW or SW, and the wind is junk – cross-on or onshore, keeping things messy. There’s some energy in the water, with combined energy readings in the hundreds (like 141 to 450), but it’s not translating into anything you’d want to paddle out for.

Then, on Tuesday afternoon, the 11th, we get a tiny window. The wind drops to glassy, and the swell is 2ft from the SW with a long period of 18 seconds. The energy bumps up to 403. The forecast says “good surf conditions,” but be honest with yourself – that’s a tiny, long-period groundswell. For a spot like this, it might be a bit too straight and weak to really light up, but if you’re desperate and the glass is in, it’s the closest thing to a pulse we’ve got. It’s a stand-out only because everything else is so grim.

The rest of the week and into the second week is more of the same grind. From Wednesday the 12th through to the morning of Friday the 21st, it’s an endless parade of poor surf or marginal conditions. Swell sizes hover between 2ft and 4ft, mostly from the SSW. The wind is a constant issue – cross-on or onshore from the W or WSW, keeping things choppy and ugly. The combined energy climbs into the 700s on the 15th, but with the wind ruining it, you’d be better off on a kiteboard than a paddle board. The setup just looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of this.

The forecast confidence is solid for the first week, but it’s a bummer to report. The second week holds a bit more energy but the same wind issues, so it’s less certain and still not worth getting excited about. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendations, and honestly, it’s a blank run that’s normal for this area when the wind doesn’t cooperate.

Keep an eye on the glassy Tuesday afternoon, August 11th. That’s your one chance for a clean, albeit small, wave. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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