Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, lookin' at the charts for Church. Honestly, it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The forecast for the next couple of weeks is mostly a mix of small, messy waves and onshore breezes. We'll see a few windows where it gets clean enough to be worth a paddle, but you'll have to pick your moments.

The water is running at 69°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won't need the thickest rubber.

Let's break it down. We've got a long gap with no real call to action. From Saturday the 4th right through the end of the first week, the wind is mostly cross or cross-on, with the odd onshore direction, and the swell is hanging around 3 ft to 3 ft. The wave energy is weak to moderate (393 to 905), but the conditions are just messy. Saturday morning the 4th might have a light breeze and 3 ft of long-period groundswell (14 seconds), but it's a cross-shore wind from the WNW that'll put ripples on it. Not ideal.

The best looking window in this whole outlook is Tuesday morning the 7th. We've got a clean 4 ft SSW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds, and it's glassy with the wind blowing straight onshore from the SW. That means it'll be clean, but you'll be fighting the paddle-in. There's moderate energy in the water (835). It's a classic Church combo – a point and beach setup that loves that long-period SSW groundswell, but those 18-second sets will be long and drawn out, better for the point than the beach. And since it's "very consistent" and crowds are "always" a thing here, bring your patience. For an advanced surfer, this is the one. The following Wednesday and Thursday mornings (8th and 9th) have a similar story, but the period drops a notch to 16 seconds, and the energy is still moderate, but the onshore wind keeps it a "marginal" call.

After that, the second week gets even slimmer. From the 10th through to the 19th, the swell drops off to between 1 ft and 3 ft, with periods mostly in the 13 to 19 second range. The winds are mostly cross-on or onshore. The only session that raises an eyebrow is the Saturday afternoon of the 18th, with a clean 2 ft from the SW and a light onshore breeze. The wave energy is weak (349), but it's better than nothing. The 19th Sunday afternoon sees a bump to 3 ft and moderate energy (584), but the cross-on wind from the S will chop it up.

So, to wrap it up: if you've got time on your hands, bank on Tuesday morning the 7th. It's the cleanest, most powerful session in the run. For the rest, it's mostly about waiting and hoping the forecasts shift.

Rusty.

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