Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what we've got coming up over the next couple of weeks at Church. It's a bit of a mixed bag, so let's get into it.

The outlook starts off pretty slow. From Wednesday the 22nd through the weekend, we're dealing with a persistent cross-onshore wind that's going to keep things messy. The swell's there, around 2ft to 4ft from the SSW or SW, but the wind's just wrecking the surface. Combine that with a strong wave energy reading in the 553 to 954 range, and you've got a lot of water moving around but none of it clean. Honestly, for a break like Church that's exposed and known to be consistent, this is frustrating. You'd be better off doing something else those first few days.

Now, things start to turn around on Monday the 27th. We get a proper offshore wind, light at 6 mph, and the swell stays solid at 4ft from the SW with a period of 18 seconds. That's proper groundswell energy, reading at 1050, so there's some real grunt in the water. This combo holds through Tuesday the 28th and into Wednesday the 29th. The wind stays offshore or light cross-on, and the swell ticks over between 4ft and 4ft. This is the best stretch of the whole forecast. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary. Church is always a busy spot, so expect company.

For my money, the absolute standout is Monday the 27th morning and afternoon. That light offshore wind, combined with the long-period SW groundswell, is going to produce clean, lined-up waves at this beach and point setup. The crowd factor is a bummer – it's always busy here – but for the quality on offer, it'll be worth jostling for a few.

We roll into the end of July and the start of August, and the pattern holds up reasonably well. Friday the 31st sees a slight spike in swell height to 5ft from the S, with a 14-second period and the wind still offshore. The energy reading jumps to 1077, so there's plenty of push. A little bit of chop might creep in on Saturday the 1st of August as the wind swings cross-on and the swell builds a touch more to 6ft. That's getting towards the top end for a fun paddle, but still manageable for experienced surfers.

After that, the second week fades. The swell drops away quickly, and from Monday the 3rd of August onwards, we're looking at poor conditions again. The energy readings plummet into the 100s and 200s, and the wind goes back to a moderate cross-onshore. It's a definite tail-off.

So, the plan is simple: wait out the first few days of slop, then hit Monday the 27th through the end of the month for the best windows. Don't expect a repeat in early August.

Rusty.

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