Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for Church over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, it’s a bit of a flat spell. We’ve got a long gap of small, weak, poor-quality surf stretching through the rest of August and into the very start of September. The first Monday (17th) is a write-off with a tiny 3ft SSW swell, cross-on wind, and the combined energy is weak at 359. The water’s a warm 73° which is 5° above normal – very unusual for this time of year, but the surf just isn’t there. Tuesday and Wednesday (18th and 19th) offer a flicker of hope with the same small 2-3ft SSW groundswell. That long-period energy (16-17 seconds) will give it some push and shape, but with onshore winds and marginal scores, it’s flat and crumbly, not worth paddling out for. The energy stays moderate but the quality is poor, so you’re not missing much.

Thursday and Friday (20th and 21st) drop further – 2-3ft, weak energy in the 180-240 range. The swell continues to fade, winds stay cross or on, and it’s just not doing anything. The weekend of the 22nd-23rd stays marginal with a slight uptick in period (15-19 seconds) but only 2ft, so it’s a long-period dud. Energy climbs a bit towards 400 on the Sunday but the swell is tiny. The following week (24th-28th) is a long stretch of the same sad story: 2-2ft SW windswell, cross-onshore wind, and mostly zero-worthy scores.

The standout – and the only reason to get excited – is the very end of the run, Saturday 29th August and Sunday 30th August. That’s your window. Swell jumps to 4-5ft SSW with a solid 16-18 second period, and combined energy skyrockets past 1000 (1082 to 1124) – that’s strong, real energy. The winds turn light or even true onshore from the SW, so it could be glassy and clean. This is groundswell with proper power. Church is a beach and point break, very consistent, exposed to this SW direction, and the optimum swell direction matches up. But at over 4ft, it’s pushing into intermediate territory – not beginner-friendly. The long period means longer lulls between sets, easier paddling, but it could get a bit dumpy on the beach sections. Expect crowds here – it says “always” – so you’ll have company. This is the one to circle.

A small pulse remains into Monday 31st at 4ft (energy still a solid 558) before it fades into early September with 3ft and no quality. The long-range Saturday/Sunday window is promising but not locked in. The rest of the forecast is a real snooze.

- Rusty

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