Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, rust collectors, let’s have a look at what the ocean’s got cookin’ for Church. This ain’t gonna be easy to get excited about for a while, so buckle up.

We’ve got a pretty bleak first week and a half on our hands, with a real long stretch of nothing to write home about. The first decent signs don’t really show up until the end of the month.

The water is way warmer than usual for this time of year, coming in at 70° with an anomaly of 4° warmer—that’s a real standout, something you feel the second you paddle out. Makes a wetsuit decision a bit easier, that’s for sure.

Right off the bat, Tuesday the 14th to Friday the 17th is a total write-off. Tiny, weak waves with messy cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is low, sitting around the 200s to 300s—barely a ripple. You’d be fighting chop for ankle-biters. Don’t bother.

From Saturday the 18th through to Tuesday the 22nd, things stay small and marginal. The swell bumps up a hair, but it’s still 3 ft to 3 ft of SSW swell. The period is short, around 14 to 18 seconds, but the wind stays cross-onshore. The energy climbs a little, hitting the 500s to 600s, but it’s still pretty weak. It’s the kind of surf you look at from the car park and keep driving.

Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th get a bit more interesting. The swell starts pushing up. On Thursday the 23rd afternoon, we get a little window with near-offshore wind from the SW at 3 mph—that’s about as clean as it’s gonna get for a while. Swell is 4 ft from the S, period a clean 14 seconds. Energy ticks up to 918. It’s still a marginal call at best, but that afternoon session on the 23rd might be the best we see in a long time.

Friday the 24th through to Sunday the 26th is where it *finally* starts to look like a proper surf forecast. The swell jumps to 5 ft to 6 ft from the S and SSW, with a solid 13-second period. The combined energy goes through the roof, up to 1629 and even 1793—that’s got some proper push behind it. The wind stays light to gentle, with some nice onshore or cross-onshore flow, but it’s not ruining it. Saturday the 25th afternoon looks the cleanest with light SW winds at 6 mph going nearly offshore. This is the real standout. That size is getting into the advanced-only territory though—anything over 5 ft at Church, especially with that kind of energy, you better know what you’re doing. This is a point-and-beach setup, and it’s always crowded, so expect company.

After that pulse, it settles back down. Sunday the 26th still has some leftover size at 3 ft but with a very long 19-second period from the SSW. That’s a classic groundswell—beautiful shape, longer lulls between sets, makes paddlin’ out easier. Energy is still respectable at 1290. The wind is light and offshore. It’ll be clean, easy, and a nice way to finish the weekend.

The very end of the forecast—Monday the 28th to Wednesday the 29th—drops off again into the 3 ft to 4 ft range with period shortening to 15 to 16 seconds. Energy is back in the decent-but-not-stellar range. It’ll be rideable, especially with the offshore wind in the mornings, but nothing compared to that burst on the 25th.

The best on offer? No doubt. Saturday July 25th morning is the standout. Solid 5 ft to 6 ft of SSW groundswell, light SW wind, clean conditions. It’s got power, it’s got shape, and it’s the biggest, best wave of the whole outlook. Just expect the lineup to be packed, because everyone’s been waiting for it.

Stay keen, and wait for that pulse.

Rusty.

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