Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the next couple of weeks at Church are a bit of a grind for us paddle surfers. We’ve got a constant run of small, messy swell coming in from the SW, and the wind is nearly always cross-onshore or onshore, keeping things choppy and uninviting. There’s no real standout session in the immediate future, but if you’re patient and pick your windows, there are a few mornings that might just offer a sneaky clean wave.

The biggest issue is the wind. For the first week, from Sunday the 13th right through to Friday the 18th, it’s a near-constant battle with S to WSW breezes, mostly 6–9 mph, keeping the surface bumpy. The swell is tiny, mostly 1 ft to 3 ft, and the period is all over the place – short 8-second stuff up to longer 19-second groundswell. That long-period energy is good for shape in theory, but with such small size and poor winds, it’s just not coming together. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 190–525, but it’s all wasted on choppy conditions. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

Now, the best chance we’ve got in this whole run lands on Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th. On Saturday morning the 19th, we get a 3 ft SW swell at 18 seconds, with light SW onshore wind (6 mph). It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see – the swell energy is moderate (557) and the conditions are described as “unknown,” which often means it could be glassy. Saturday afternoon holds similar but with a light cross-onshore. Sunday the 20th also has some promise with a 3 ft SW swell at 18 seconds, but the wind swings S at 9 mph, so morning might be choppier. Still, the energy is moderate (576–595), so there’s enough push for a few fun ones if you can find a corner.

After that, from Monday the 21st through to Monday the 28th, it’s more of the same: 2 ft to 3 ft SW swell, mostly cross-onshore winds, and poor surf conditions. The combined energy dips and rises between 300 and 632, but the wind never really lets up. A few mornings like Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th have light WSW cross-onshore and might be marginally rideable, but honestly, it’s a waiting game. The crowds at Church are always heavy, so even if it’s small, you’ll have company.

To be blunt, the whole 16-day window is a struggle. The swell is too small to overpower the wind, and the direction is locked in from the SW, which is okay for Church’s exposure but not enough to make up for the chop. If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross-onshore breeze and moderate energy might actually look appealing, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a lean stretch. Don’t give up hope – forecasts can change, and the long-period pulses suggest the ocean is trying, but for now, pick your moments carefully.

Rusty.

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