Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a pretty quiet start. The first few days are looking poor, with small swell and messy winds. The energy is weak, so don’t get your hopes up for the first week. The real standouts are tucked away in the second week, and one day in particular is calling my name.

Alright, let’s talk about Church (beach and point). This spot is exposed to the southwest, and it’s very consistent, which is a good thing. But it’s an advanced wave, and crowds are always a factor here. The water temperature is a whopping 74°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 6°F above average. That’s a weird one, but it’s a nice touch for the long paddle out.

The first real look we get is on Wednesday, 26 August. Morning brings a 4ft S swell with a period of 12 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (817). The wind is light and onshore, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy. It’s marginal, but it’s a start.

Things don’t really improve much through the end of August. The swell stays small, mostly under 4ft, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore. The energy is moderate, bouncing between 400 and 753, but the surf quality is poor or marginal. This is a lull, plain and simple.

A bit of a pulse shows up around Saturday, 5 September. The morning sees a 4ft SSW swell, with a 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell, with long gaps between sets. The energy is strong (1094), but the wind is a moderate 9 mph from the south, cross-onshore, making it messy. The afternoon is a write-off with stronger winds.

Now, here’s the one that gets me excited. Sunday, 6 September, afternoon. The swell drops to 3ft from the SSW, with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is still moderate (675). But the wind… it’s glassy. Dead calm. That’s a rare treat. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the standout of the whole window. The waves will be clean, lined up, and with that long period, they’ll be powerful for their size. The only drawback is that a long period groundswell can be a bit too straight at a beach break, but this is a point break too, so it should handle it well. This is the session to aim for.

The rest of the second week, from 7 September onward, keeps the swell around 4ft to 5ft, with moderate to strong energy (848 to 971). The wind is mostly light, but it’s cross-onshore, so the surf will be a bit grovelly. There’s no other glassy day.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a wash. The second week picks up, but the real gem is Sunday, 6 September afternoon. Set your alarms for that one. The long period means the sets will be proper, and with glassy conditions, it’s going to be as good as it gets around here. Crowds will be inevitable, but it’s worth the fight.

Rusty.

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