Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s have a real look at the next couple of weeks. It’s not going to be a classic stretch, but there are a few windows where things might just line up if you’re patient.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a slow start. The first few days are looking pretty rough – small, weak, and mostly onshore. The swell is barely pushing 3 feet, and the wind is just messing things up. You’re looking at light cross-onshore breezes and lumpy conditions. This is not the time to be paddling out unless you’re happy to just get wet and frustrated. The water temp is sitting at 76°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a little bonus if you do decide to go for a swim instead.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up around Tuesday the 11th. It’s still pretty marginal, but the energy is starting to build. The swell is small, around 2 feet, but the period is stretching out a bit. It’s nothing to write home about, but it’s a sign that things might be turning.

Then we get to the middle of the month. By Thursday the 14th and into the weekend, the energy really starts to pick up. We’re seeing the combined energy jump into the 500s and 700s, which is a solid push of moderate wave energy. The swell is still not huge – around 3 to 4 feet – but the period is staying in that 15-18 second range, which is proper groundswell. The problem is the wind. It’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, which is going to keep the surface messy. Friday morning looks like the best of the lot, with lighter winds and a bit more size, but it’s still going to be a bit of a battle.

The standout window, if you can call it that, is really the weekend of the 15th and 16th. The energy is at its highest, with the combined energy hitting 771 on Saturday afternoon. The swell is up to 4 feet, but it’s a bit inconsistent and the wind is still cross-onshore. It’s going to be lumpy, but there will be some fun waves for the more experienced crew. On the Sunday the 16th, the wind picks up a bit more, and the quality drops off again.

After that, it’s a slow fade. The energy stays moderate, but the wind keeps messing with things. The swell direction is consistently from the SSW, which is good for this break, but the onshore wind is just killing the quality. There’s a brief moment on the 22nd where the period jumps to 21 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell, but the swell height is tiny – just 1 feet. That’s a lot of energy for nothing, and it’s likely to be too straight for the beach break anyway.

So, here’s the deal. The best surf on offer is probably on the morning of Friday the 14th, even though it’s not huge. It’s got the best mix of size, period, and lighter wind. The Saturday the 15th is also worth a look, but you’ll be fighting the onshore breeze. And if you’re just looking for something clean, the 22nd might have a few long-period lines, but it’s going to be tiny.

Honestly, this isn’t a stretch that’s going to have you calling in sick. There are a few days with some energy, but the wind is rarely your friend. Stick to the mornings, pick your spots, and don’t expect perfection.

Rusty

Read more