Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, it’s a tough one here. Looking at the next two weeks, the swell’s there, but the wind’s gonna be a constant battle. This is the kind of period where you’ll be scratching your head more than you’ll be scratching a wave. Gonna be a lot of waiting and hoping.

The only break in the game is Church. It’s an exposed spot, so it catches plenty, and we’ve got a long period groundswell from the SW rolling in pretty consistently – you can see the energy sitting there, moderate to strong all the way through (values between 217 and 672). The problem? That wind. It’s gonna be cross-on or onshore for almost the entire run, and for a place that likes a good offshore from the NE, we’re not getting anything close to that. That means the surface is going to be messy, choppy, and just plain frustrating.

Water temp is around 69°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, no real surprises there.

Let’s walk through it. The first few days, Friday 11th through to Sunday 13th, are a write-off. Swell is hanging around 1 ft to 3 ft, but with a moderate SSE wind and then a cross-on S breeze, it’s a choppy mess. Don’t bother.

Monday 14th sees a bit of a spike in swell height to 4 ft, but it’s a short period W windswell – that’s only 8 seconds of energy, and with a cross-on wind, it’ll be ugly. Not worth a paddle.

From Tuesday 15th through to the end of the first week, we’re stuck in a rut. Swell sticks between 1 ft and 3 ft, period is decent (14 to 20 seconds), but the wind remains a cross-on or onshore nuisance. The afternoons on Thursday 17th and Friday 18th might offer a little glimmer with a light breeze and some small wind ripples, but the comment says it all – “poor surf conditions.”

Into the second week, from Saturday 19th September onward, the story doesn’t change. The swell starts to get a bit more organised, with most sessions showing 3 ft to 3 ft of SW groundswell and that healthy energy staying in the 300 to 600 range. Saturday 20th afternoon has a combined energy of 672, which is proper power, and the wind is light. But it’s still a cross-on from the W. It’s close to being good, but not quite there. The morning of Sunday 20th is onshore from the SW, but it’s only a light breeze, so the 3 ft, 18-second groundswell could have a few clean-ish ones for the patient surfer. That’s about as close to a standout as we get, and even then, it’s a gamble.

The final few days, from the 23rd to the 26th, the swell drops off a little and the wind stays stubbornly cross-on or onshore. By the 26th, we’re down to 1 ft to 2 ft with a very long 19-second period, but with only a light breeze, it’s a fickle, small-scale affair.

So what’s the call? Honestly, there are no true standouts here. The best bet, if you’re desperate, is to target the Sunday 20th of September morning. The 3 ft groundswell with a 18-second period will have some push, and a light onshore breeze might just keep it rideable. But it’s not clean, and it’s not for beginners – that energy is real. For the advanced crew, maybe the Saturday 20th afternoon session, if the light cross-on wind doesn’t wreck the face. Crowds at Church are always an issue, so expect company.

There’s a big gap of poor-to-marginal surf right through the first week. Don’t get your hopes up.

-Rusty

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