Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line. We’ve only got one spot on the radar this whole run, and that’s Church. It’s an exposed beach and point setup that loves a good SW swell, so we know where the energy needs to come from. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, nothing wild to report.

Right off the bat, Thursday the 10th is where the story starts. We’ve got a nice little pulse of long-period groundswell rolling in, 3 ft from the SW with a period of 17 seconds. That’s proper energy for a point break, lots of push and shape, and the combined energy is a moderate 628. The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’ll be a little bumpy but rideable. The afternoon holds similar with 16-second period and 564 energy. Keep in mind, this is an advanced break and it’s always crowded, so expect company. This is a standout – the longest-period, best-quality window of the whole forecast.

Friday the 11th and through the weekend, it gets real quiet. By Friday morning, the swell drops to 3 ft but the wind picks up from the SSE at 9 mph, making it choppy and poor. Friday afternoon is small at 3 ft and marginal. Saturday and Sunday are a write-off with tiny 2-3 ft waves and persistent cross-onshore wind. There’s a six-day gap here where nothing’s really worth paddling out for.

Monday the 14th is a mess – a 3 ft, 8-second windswell from the W with a moderate 12 mph cross-onshore. That’s short-period, weak, and choppy. Not your friend.

By Wednesday the 16th, things try to clean up a little. We see a 3 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, and the wind goes light and offshore (onshore? Wait, it’s “on” from the SW – that’s offshore at Church). That’s clean, glassy potential. Energy is a moderate 429. Still, it’s small. A sneaky window for a longboard if you’re keen.

Moving into the second week, there’s a tiny spike around Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th with 2-3 ft SW groundswell and period up to 19 seconds. Wind stays light or onshore, but the combined energy climbs back into the 500s. It’s promising but less certain this far out. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd show a similar pattern – 3-3 ft SW swell, 16-17 second period, and light winds, but always cross-onshore or onshore. The energy sits in the moderate 500-600 range, so there’s juice, but it’s not clean enough to get excited about.

After that, from Wednesday the 23rd onward, it fades fast. By Thursday the 24th, we’ve got rain showers and a 16 mph SSE wind making a mess of the 2 ft swell. Not worth your time.

Best of the run? No doubt, Thursday the 10th. Get out there early. After that, maybe a cheeky Wednesday the 16th morning if you’re desperate. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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