Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, church, let's get real for a sec. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and uninspiring. We’ve got a long stretch here with no real swell pushing in, and honestly, most of it is going to be a struggle just to find something rideable. Don't get your hopes up for any fireworks; it's more about making the most of small windows.

We’re starting off with nearly nothing. Tuesday the 4th through Thursday the 6th, the swell is tiny, around 2ft to 2ft, and the energy in the water is weak. You can see the combined energy values are low, mostly between 146 and 205. The winds are light, mostly offshore in the mornings, but with no real swell, it’s just not doing anything for us. The water is a balmy 76°, which is about 9° warmer than normal for this time of year. That's a big deal, so if you're paddling out, you won't need a thick suit.

Friday the 7th and the weekend of the 8th and 9th, we see a slight bump in period, with some longer period energy showing up (17-19 seconds), and the energy climbs to the 325-447 range. But the size stays small, around 2ft to 3ft. It's still marginal. The waves might have a bit more push to them, but it's not enough to get excited about. The mornings are looking cleaner with that offshore flow, but it's small, small, small.

Next week, from Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 13th, we’re still stuck in the same pattern. Swell heights hover around 2ft to 2ft, with moderate energy in the 257-428 range. We’ve got some light offshore winds in the mornings, but it’s still not offering up anything that would be considered “good.” It's a waiting game.

Now, here’s the one glimmer of hope in this whole forecast. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th show a bit more life. The swell starts to build a little, with the Friday morning seeing 2ft, but it's the afternoon that gets more interesting, jumping to 3ft and then to 4ft on Saturday morning. The combined energy jumps into the 592-795 range, which is a solid step up from the weak stuff we've been dealing with. The period is hanging around 16-19 seconds, which means it's got some proper groundswell character.

Now, the catch: the winds are going to be cross-on from the west, not the clean offshore we'd want. It's going to be a bit bumpy and choppy. Church is a beach and point setup, and with this kind of cross-on wind, it might get a little messy, especially on the beach. The point might offer some shelter, but it's not going to be perfect. This is the standout of the entire stretch, but it's not a no-brainer— the conditions will be challenging. For anyone not super comfortable in lumpy conditions, this might be a session for watching.

After that little pulse, we settle back down. From Sunday the 16th through to Wednesday the 19th, it's back to small surf, around 2ft to 3ft, with energy fading back to the 229-420 range. The winds stay mostly cross-on. It's just not doing much.

So here's the bottom line: if you're desperate for a wave, Saturday the 15th is your best bet, but it's not going to be a classic. The rest of the period is mostly small, weak surf with a lot of waiting around. Conditions like this can change, so it's worth keeping an eye on the charts, but for now, you might be better off finding something else to do.

Stay salty.

Rusty

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