Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into the outlook for Church.

Overall, it’s a pretty drawn-out period. We’ve got swell on the way, but the conditions are a bit of a mixed bag. The water is sitting at 73°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a real anomaly, over 6°F warmer than average (3°C). That’s very unusual and means you might not even need a full spring suit.

The first decent sign of life comes on Tuesday the 15th of September. There’s a long-period SW groundswell rolling in, with a period of 16 seconds, pushing about 2ft of swell. However, the wind is a cross-onshore from the south at 9 mph, making it fairly choppy. The combined energy is only sitting at 255 (weak energy), so it’s not going to be any kind of standout. Honestly, the reports are calling it poor surf conditions.

Things stay marginal through Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th. The swell bumps up slightly to about 3-3ft, still from the SSW with a decent period (18-16 seconds), and the energy climbs into the moderate range – hitting 416 on Wednesday morning and 462 on Thursday morning. The wind is light and onshore, but at 6 mph, it’s manageable. These early mornings look like the only time to even bother, but I’d still call them a gamble with that onshore wind.

Friday the 18th of September is where I’d start to pay attention. Friday morning looks like the pick of the first week. We’ve got a clean 2ft SW groundswell with a very long period of 19 seconds, and the wind is light and onshore. The energy is solid at 501 (moderate wave energy). This is a long-period groundswell, so at a beach and point setup like Church, it should wrap in nicely and offer some shape.

Saturday the 19th sees similar conditions: about 3ft at 18 seconds from the SW, with moderate energy (503) and light onshore wind in the morning. It’s another window, but the wind swings cross-onshore by the afternoon.

From Sunday the 20th right through to the end of the month, the pattern is frustrating. The swell holds steady between 2-3ft, still from the SW, with moderate energy (hitting a peak of 654 on the 20th afternoon). But the wind is persistently cross-onshore or onshore. We’re looking at a solid 9-day stretch of "gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy" or "light cross-onshore with small wind ripples." The quality just isn’t there for a clean ride.

If I had to pick the best window for a dedicated surfer, it’s Friday morning, September 18th. It’s not big, at 2ft from the SW, but that 19-second period gives it some punch for its size, and the light onshore wind is the best we’re going to see. Get in the water early because it goes downhill by the afternoon.

Rusty.

Read more