Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the Church area over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I’m not gonna sugar-coat it: this is a tough run. The swell is small, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the first real shot of anything decent is a long way off.

The window kicks off on Thursday, the 30th of July, with a modest 3 ft SSW groundswell rolling in. The energy is moderate (683), and the water temp is sitting at 74°, which feels much warmer than usual for this time of year. But the wind is coming from the WSW at 6 mph, putting a cross-onshore bump on the surface. It’s a tricky, choppy mess – not what you want for a clean wave. The period is a decent 15 seconds, which usually means energy, but the combined onshore wind just kills the quality. This is a spot that always has a crowd, and with conditions like this, it’ll be a fight for scraps.

We slide into Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August. The swell drops off rapidly – from 4 ft down to 2 ft. The energy follows the same path, dropping from 646 to a weak 247 by Saturday morning. The wind is still blowing onshore from the SW and SSW, and the waves are getting smaller and weaker. The reports are calling it marginal at best, and by Saturday afternoon, "poor surf conditions." It’s a complete write-off.

Then we hit a dead zone. From Sunday the 2nd of August right through to Thursday the 13th of August, it’s a long, flat grind. Swell heights are stuck between 1 ft and 3 ft, and the energy values are mostly in the low 100s or 200s – that’s just weak, unimpressive dribble. The wind stays stubbornly onshore or cross-onshore from the SW or WSW. The period jumps up to some really long numbers – 16, 19, even 20 seconds – which is true groundswell, but with no height behind it, those long-period lines just wash through without producing any wave. For a beach and point setup, that long period can make things racey and straight, not to mention the gaps between sets. It’s more of a paddle-around day than a surf day. The "poor surf conditions" flag is stamped on almost every single entry. This is a proper blank run.

Now, there is a tiny glimmer at the end of the tunnel. On Thursday the 14th and Friday the 15th of August, we see the swell nudge back up to 3 ft, with that moderate energy returning (around 412 to 426). The period is still decent at 15-16 seconds. The wind shifts slightly to WNW on the 14th, giving us a cross-shore condition for a moment, which is a big improvement. It’s still only "marginal" and far from perfect, but it’s the best of a weak bunch. Don't get your hopes up, but for the local stalwarts who are desperate, it’s the only window worth a glance. The rest of that second week fades back into poor, onshore slop.

Honestly, there’s no standout day here. It’s a period of recovery between swell events. The Church always has a crew out, and with these tiny, bumpy conditions, it’s more of a social paddle than a surf session. If you’re a beginner, the 2 ft days are safe enough, but the onshore wind will make it a bumpy, frustrating pop-up.

So, the long and short of it is: keep your board in the car for the odd check on the 14th, but otherwise, this is a two-week snooze-fest.

- Rusty

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