Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming down the line for this stretch of coast.

To be straight with you, the next 16 days are looking pretty bleak for any kind of proper session. There’s a real drought of quality surf on the cards. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak swells and persistent onshore or cross-onshore winds that are going to mess up what little energy there is. For the most part, you’re looking at tiny waves and choppy, poor conditions.

The first proper sniff of anything surfable is on Thursday morning, August 13th, but it’s a real tease. The Church (beach and point) will see a small 2ft swell from the SW, but here’s the kicker – that swell is carrying some serious period at 16 seconds, a proper groundswell, but it’s combined with an onshore wind from the SW. The energy reading is a weak 340, so the power just isn’t there. The forecast talks about marginal conditions and questionable tide, and to be honest, it’s not worth getting wet for. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

That Thursday afternoon and into Friday the 14th, the swell ticks up a touch to 3ft to 3ft from the SSW, and the period gets even longer, up to 18 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and at a point break like Church, that can actually be a good thing for shape. But again, those winds are onshore or cross-onshore, so the surface will be manky. The energy climbs into the moderate range, hitting 684 on Friday afternoon, but the wave quality is still rated as poor. The cross-onshore breeze is just ruining it.

This same story plays out through the weekend. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th have the best swell of the whole period, with heights reaching 4ft from the SSW on Saturday afternoon and energy up at 717. But it’s all for nothing with those persistent WSW and W cross-onshore winds. The surf will be choppy and gutless.

From Monday the 17th right through to the end of the forecast on Friday the 28th of August, it’s just a slow, sad fade. Swell drops from 3ft down to 1ft and the energy reading sinks to as low as 188. The periods do stay long at times, hitting 19 seconds on the 22nd, but with that tiny 1ft swell and cross-onshore winds, it’s not going to break properly. It’s just a long period wash.

The Standout

Honestly, there are no standouts here. If I had to point to the *least worst* option, it would be Friday afternoon, August 14th at Church. The 3ft SSW swell with an 18-second period has the best chance of offering a clean, lined-up wave underneath the surface crap if the wind miraculously drops. But it’s a desperate call. The moderate energy (684) and very long period is what you want for a point break, but the wind is the villain.

On the whole, this is a two-week write-off. Don't bother paddling out unless you’re desperate for a float in average conditions. Keep an eye on the charts, though – it can change.

Rusty.

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