Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a good look at what we've got coming up for Church.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, it's a bit of a frustrating outlook. The water's pumping at a toasty 73°, which is about 6° warmer than normal for late July – that's very unusual and makes for a pleasant session when you're in the water. The problem is the surf quality just isn't matching up. We've got a long window of marginal conditions, and after that, it drops right off a cliff. There’s a lot of waiting ahead.

We kick off on Friday the 24th of July. It's not going to be great, with a small 2ft southwest swell rolling in. The wind is a cross-on from the south-southwest, making things a bit choppy. The wave energy is moderate (928), but the conditions are just fighting it. This pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the month. Through Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, we're stuck in that same rut: small, inconsistent swells in the 3ft range with cross-onshore winds. It’s cleanable, but it's not firing.

We get a slight bump heading into next week. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see the swell picking up to a consistent 4ft to 5ft from the south-southwest. The energy is ramping up into the strong category (1147 to 1133). The wind is light, but mostly cross-on or onshore. It’s the best of a tough bunch, but “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” keeps popping up in the notes. The period is dropping from 18 seconds to 17 seconds during this time – still a decent groundswell, but the cross-onshore breeze is going to keep it from being the glassy perfection we'd want. This stuff is really only for the advanced crew who know the bank.

Then comes Thursday the 31st of July. The swell jumps to 6ft to 6ft from the south with moderate energy (1466). The period shortens to 14 seconds. This is a bigger, punchier wave and could be the standout for the more experienced surfers, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. It'll be a wall of water but messy.

The best bet on the horizon is Saturday the 1st of August. We have a solid 6ft south-southwest swell and the wind drops to almost nothing – just 3 mph from the southwest, essentially glassy. It’s the cleanest the place will look during this whole run. The period is 13 seconds, which is a solid, workable swell. For that morning, it's your window for some proper, clean lines before the crowds inevitably turn up.

After that brief high, the outlook gets grim. From Sunday the 2nd of August through to the 8th of August, the swell drops to under 3ft, the energy plummets to weak levels (down to 44 by the 8th), and the conditions are labelled as "poor" or "very poor." Honestly, from Tuesday the 5th onwards, the combined energy is so low (120 or less) that you're better off leaving the board at home. It’s a blank run for about a week.

So, in short: a long stretch of marginal, small surf, one potential standout on the 1st of August for clean waves, followed by a total flat spell. Not the best run for Church.

- Rusty

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