Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Church has got on offer over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a grind out there for a while.

First things first, the water’s sitting at a balmy 76°, which is a whopping 9° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s seriously unusual, almost like summer hung around. You won’t need a thick wetsuit, that’s for sure.

Alright, the outlook starts with Wednesday, the 2nd of September, but it’s a write-off. We’ve got a bit of swell – 2ft from the SSW with a long 16-second period, packing moderate energy (427) – but it’s blown out by a 9 mph cross-on westerly. Choppy, messy, and not worth a paddle. That trend sticks for the next few days. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th see the swell slowly building, but it’s still cross-on or onshore, and the waves are rated poor or marginal. It’s frustrating.

The first real glimmer comes on Saturday the 5th afternoon. The swell pushes to 4ft from the SSW, the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the energy jumps into the strong zone (1102). Plus, the wind swings to a light onshore from the SW at 6 mph. It’s not glassy, but it’s a cleaner look. The water temp anomaly is still way above average, so it’ll feel weirdly warm. Still, it’s only a marginal forecast, so don’t expect perfection.

Sunday the 6th morning has the biggest swell of the run at 6ft from the S, but a 14-second period and moderate to strong energy (1155). The wind is light onshore from the WSW. That 6ft is pushing into “too big for beginners” territory. Honestly, the quality is still only marginal, and with the wind not being offshore, it’s not the standout you’d hope for from that size.

The standout, if we’re being honest, is Saturday the 5th afternoon. That 4ft of SSW groundswell (16-second period) and the lighter wind offer the best chance at a few clean, lined-up waves, especially on the point section of Church. That long period will wrap nicely around the point, giving you some proper push. Expect crowds here though – it’s “always” busy, so get in early. The wave energy is strong (1102), so there’s plenty of grunt behind each set.

After that, things fade. Monday the 7th through the rest of the second week is a slow decline. The swell drops back under 3ft from Wednesday the 9th onward, and the wind stays cross-on or onshore, often picking up to a moderate breeze that chops everything to bits. By the middle of the second week, we’re looking at tiny 2ft to 2ft swell with periods all over the place – even a 21-second pulse on Thursday the 17th, but with only 2ft of height and a cross-on breeze, it’s not going to do much at a beach-and-point setup like this. Energy is weak (around 300-460). There’s a gap of several days from around the 11th of September onward where there’s nothing recommended at all.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Saturday the 5th afternoon for some solid, long-period SSW groundswell with cleaner conditions. Sunday the 6th morning has the most size, but the quality is still just okay. The rest of the window is pretty quiet, with small, choppy, or blown-out surf. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, that Saturday arvo is your only real window.

Stay stoked,

Rusty.

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