Church Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the models are throwing up for Church over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a slow burner, to be honest, so don't be expecting to rush out today.

We start off with a very quiet spell. From this Friday, 14th August, right through until the end of the following week, the swell is just a dribble. We're looking at knee-to-waist high stuff, mostly around 2 ft to 4 ft, with a lot of cross-onshore wind. The water is currently about 75°, which is a massive 7° warmer than normal – that is seriously unusual for the time of year, so maybe just a rashie and boardshorts for the first session you do get. The combined energy is weak to moderate, sitting around 250 to 700 (moderate wave energy) for most of these days, and the forecasts are all tagged as marginal or poor. The wind isn't doing us any favours, either; it's mostly a light cross-onshore, killing any chance of a clean face. There is a solid 7-day gap here with no real recommendations, so don't hold your breath.

Now, hold onto your boardies, because things change as we head into the last week of August. Around Tuesday, 25th August, we see a proper pulse of energy arrive. The swell builds to 4 ft on Tuesday morning, then hits 6 ft by the afternoon, and peaks at 6 ft on Wednesday, 26th August. This is where it gets interesting. The combined wave energy jumps right up – we're talking 1081 on Tuesday morning, and a hefty 1601 (strong wave energy) by Tuesday afternoon. That's a lot of power in the water. The swell is coming from the S-SSW with a period of 15-16 seconds, so it's a decent, long-period groundswell. This kind of long-period energy will wrap around nicely at a point break like Church, giving it shape and power, but it also tends to race and wall up, so this is solidly in the "experts only" territory when it's over 5 ft. For a spot that is 'very consistent' and exposed, this is the standout window.

The wind looks promising for this window too. It's forecast to be light and onshore, but from the WSW and SW. For Church, which needs a NE wind for a true offshore, a light wind from the SW is almost a cross-offshore or clean onshore. It’s not ideal, but it's 'light breeze' strength, so it won't chop things up too much. The crowd situation is a worry though, because this spot is 'always' busy, and when a solid SSW groundswell lines up with the optimum direction, it’ll be a zoo out there. If you're an experienced surfer, the mornings of the 25th, 26th, and 27th August are your best bet before it starts to drop off a touch. The 27th still has good 5 ft swell with solid 1000 energy (strong wave energy) and clean light winds.

After that peak, the swell slowly backs off through to the 29th, still offering some fun waist-to-chest high sets, but the energy levels are already starting to dip back into the moderate range. The long-range outlook for those final days is promising, but it's a bit less certain given the time frame.

So, the standout is that window from Tuesday, 25th August, through to Thursday, 27th August. If you can handle the power and the crowds, that's the time to be at Church.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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