Consessions/Big Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what we’ve got for this stretch.

Straight up, this ain’t gonna be a week for the history books. The finder only gave us one break to work with, and for a solid stretch it’s mostly a write-off. We’re looking at a long gap with nothing worth paddling out for from the start until the back half of August, and even then it’s touch and go. The real energy doesn’t show up until we get into September.

The only break on the radar is Consessions/Big Rights. It’s an exposed reef setup, so it needs the right direction to really fire. The water temp is sitting at 81° with an anomaly of 0.9°, so pretty much dead average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

From Sunday the 23rd of August all the way through to Monday the 31st of August, it’s grim. The swell is coming from the ENE with a short, weak period of 7 seconds, and combined energy readings are mostly in the 400-600 range. That’s weak energy, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” at best. The wind is a stiff cross-off from the ENE, gusting 19-25 mph, which just ruins any chance of a clean face. There’s a tiny blip on Wednesday the 26th afternoon where a long-period S swell shows up at 2ft and 18 seconds, giving moderate energy of 622, but it’s still marginal with messy wind. That pattern of small, long-period S swell carries into Thursday the 27th (4ft, 17 secs, energy 876), but again, the cross-off wind holds it back from being any kind of standout. After that, it fades back into weak, short-period slop.

The first real sniff of something bigger comes on Tuesday the 1st of September. The swell jumps to 7ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy rockets up to 1246 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is still a cross-off from the ENE at 22 mph, but the power is there. The wave comment only rates it a 2/10, calling it “marginal,” so it’s not clean, but for a big, powerful reef, that’s a lot of water moving.

The standout window in this whole 16-day outlook is Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th of September. On Saturday, we get 7ft of ENE groundswell with a very long period of 12 seconds, and the combined energy hits 1449. The wind backs off to a moderate 16 mph from the NE, still cross-off but lighter. Sunday the 6th is the biggest day: 8ft on the morning building to 10ft by the afternoon, with an 11-12 second period. The energy is enormous – 2400 in the morning and 2397 in the afternoon – that’s very strong. The swell direction is ENE, but the optimum for this break is SSE, so the direction is off. Still, with that much juice and a long period, the reef will be handling it. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but the power is undeniable. This is for advanced surfers only; over 8ft on a reef with cross-off wind is no place for beginners.

So, if you’re holding out, the best bet is Saturday, 5th of September, for the best combination of size, period, and slightly lighter wind, or Sunday the 6th for the absolute biggest push, but expect it to be raw and bumpy. The rest of the run? Honestly, looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer with those strong, consistent cross-off winds and weak, short-period swell. Give it time, though – forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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