Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the first solid surf we see isn't until Monday the 20th of July, and even then, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water is a chilly 51°, which is a whopping 6° colder than usual for this time of year – that’s seriously cold, so a thick wetsuit is non-negotiable.

We kick things off on Monday morning with a 6ft swell from the NW, but it's only got 8 seconds of period and a light onshore breeze from the WNW at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 792, but the conditions are marginal. Honestly, it’s not looking great. The afternoon cleans up a bit with the wind dropping to 3 mph from the W, and the swell switches to a 3ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The energy is still moderate (909), but that long period means it’ll be a bit more lined up, though it might break a little straight at a beach break.

Tuesday the 21st drops off further. Morning sees a 2ft SW groundswell, still very long period at 16 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on from the NNW at 9 mph. It’s small and choppy. Afternoon is even worse – 3ft SSW with a 15-second period, but the same cross-on wind. The combined energy drops to 441. Not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday the 22nd is more of the same: tiny, short-period NW swell in the morning at 3ft and 8 seconds, with a light cross-on wind. The energy is 427 – weak to moderate. The rest of the week through to Thursday the 30th of July is a long, sad story of poor surf. The swell stays small, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is a persistent cross-shore from the north at 15 to 22 mph. It’s lumpy, choppy, and the energy is all over the place, from a weak 384 to a moderate 498. The only real spike in energy is on Friday the 24th afternoon (1215) and Saturday the 25th morning (1487), but the swell is still only 3ft to 4ft, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore breeze. The long period (21-24 seconds) will give some shape, but the wind is going to ruin it. For a spot like Cape Mendocino, which is an exposed, fairly consistent spot, this is a tough run.

The real kicker is that from the 28th of July all the way through to the 4th of August, the conditions are pretty much all poor. The wind is a fresh cross-shore breeze at 19-22 mph, and the swell is tiny – dropping to 1.0ft to 2ft. The combined energy fades to weak, down to 95 by the 3rd of August. It’s a blank run for the second week.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there’s no true standout. If I had to pick the least ugly session, it would be Monday the 20th afternoon. The 3ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period and a light 3 mph onshore wind from the W will at least give you some clean, glassy lines. The energy is moderate (909), so there’s some push there. It’s not big, but it’s the cleanest it’s going to get. The only other remotely interesting window is Saturday the 25th morning, with a 4ft SW groundswell at 21 seconds, but the cross-shore wind at 15 mph is going to make it a bumpy mess. With that much wind and a small swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Bottom line: get your Monday afternoon session in, then start looking at the long-range charts for a change. These blank runs happen, but it won’t stay this way forever.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more