Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for the Cape Mendocino stretch over the next couple of weeks. I’ve gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty grim run for most of the period. There’s a whole lot of poor surf conditions and marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions clogging up the calendar. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and that’s keeping the surface messy. The good news is there’s a real standout window right at the end of the forecast that looks like it could be worth the wait.

Right now, on Friday the 11th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the SW with a long 16-second period (moderate energy at 616), but it’s being ripped apart by a 15 mph cross-shore wind. The morning is called “marginal” and the afternoon is just “poor.” The Saturday the 12th is similar – a bit of SW groundswell but with cross-on winds, so the surface is choppy. Sunday the 13th morning has tiny 2ft SW swell but the same onshore vibe. Sunday afternoon actually sees a jump to 6ft, but it’s a short-period NW windswell (9 seconds) with strong 15 mph cross-shore winds, making it a total mess. The whole first week is like this – fresh breeze cross-shore winds on Monday the 14th blowing out a 7ft NW swell, then the swell dies mid-week.

We hit a proper flat spell from Tuesday the 15th through to Wednesday the 23rd of September. The swell drops to 2ft or 2ft with very long periods (16-19 seconds), but the energy is weak (values in the 100-400 range) and the wind stays cross or cross-on. It’s just not doing anything. There are a few “marginal” calls in there, like Thursday the 17th afternoon and Monday the 21st, but nothing you’d paddle out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is Friday morning, September 25th at Cape Mendocino. This is the one to circle on your calendar. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the WNW with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 671 (moderate energy). The wind is dead calm – “glass” conditions. That is a major positive. The surface will be clean as a whistle, the water temperature is about average for the time of year. It’s an exposed spot, so it’ll pick up that WNW energy well, and the direction is right on the money for what this break likes. It’s a fairly consistent break, but be aware crowds are sometimes a thing here. This is the best on offer by a long shot – a proper, clean, glassy session.

The day after, Saturday the 26th morning, sees the swell size jump to 7ft from the WNW, but the period drops to a shorter 9 seconds and the wind goes light cross-on, so the quality won’t be as good as Friday. That Friday morning is your window.

For the most part, though, this area is in a funk. The setup with the strong cross-shore winds and messy swell makes it look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most of those windy days.

So, hold out for that Friday the 25th. It’s a bit of a trek away, but it looks promising.

Rusty.

Read more