Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you—it’s a rough start. For the first week and a half, from Thursday the 6th of August all the way through to Friday the 14th, it’s basically a write-off. We’re looking at a solid 8-day stretch of poor surf conditions, with messy cross-shore winds and tiny, weak swells that just won’t line up. The water’s sitting at a chilly 52°—that’s a massive 6° colder than usual for this time of year, which is very unusual, so you’ll want a thick suit if you even bother paddling out. Honestly, for the first 8 days, don’t bother.

Things finally start to flicker to life around Saturday the 15th. We get a bit of a bump, with a 3ft swell from the SSW and period around 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and while the conditions are still just marginal with light cross-onshore breezes, the wave energy is climbing into the moderate range (620). It’s not the day to call in sick for, but it’s a sign that the ocean’s waking up.

Now, here’s where we get the standout of the whole outlook. Sunday the 16th of August. That’s your day. The swell holds steady at 3ft from the SSW, with a 16-second period, and the wind goes glassy. Zero wind in the afternoon, just clean, smooth conditions. Wave energy is strong (522), and the break is going to be clean as a whistle. For a spot that’s exposed to the SW, and with that long-period groundswell, the point and reef setups here will be holding that energy beautifully. It’s not a huge day, but with those conditions, the quality will make up for it. Crowds are possible here, so get there early.

Monday the 17th offers a little something—3ft from the SSW with cross-offshore winds from the SE keeping it clean. The energy is moderate (357). It’s a decent follow-up, but not as good as Sunday.

After that, we get a shift. Tuesday the 18th brings a new swell from the WNW, building through Wednesday the 19th. By Wednesday morning, we’re looking at 5ft from the WNW, with a 13-second period. The energy is strong (939), and the swell is getting some size. But the wind is cross-shore from the NNW at 9 mph, which will put a bit of texture on the face. This is pushing into expert-only territory at 5ft, especially at an exposed break like this. It’s worth a look for the crew with a bigger board, but it’s not the glassy perfection of that Sunday.

Thursday the 20th is similar but easing—4ft from the WNW with a shorter 11-second period. The energy is still moderate (720), but the cross-shore wind picks up to 12-16 mph, making it lumpy.

Then we drop back off into poor, small surf from Friday the 21st onward. So, to sum it up: suffer through the first 8 days, then circle Sunday the 16th of August on your calendar. That’s the best on offer.

Rusty.

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