Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you, the outlook is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some interesting signals if you know where to look and you’re patient.

We’ve got a stretch of pretty marginal conditions kicking things off this Saturday the 18th and into the first part of the week. The water temp is sitting at a chilly 51°F, which is a massive 6°F colder than what’s normal for this time of year. That’s a whole lot of neoprene, boys. The swell energy is actually pretty impressive, with readings hitting four figures – moderate to strong at 1032 units – but the problem is the wind. It’s coming from the NNW at 16 mph, blowing straight across the face, making for a choppy mess on that 3 ft SW groundswell. The period is a very long 18 seconds, so there’s plenty of grunt, but at a beach setup like this, that long interval will make the waves a bit straight and tricky. Not a session to write home about.

Sunday the 19th isn’t much better. The morning brings a bigger 6 ft NW swell, but it’s a short-period 8-second windswell and the wind is cross-on. It’s going to be lumpy and unruly. That’s more for the gear-testers than the surfers.

Monday the 20th is where we get a little glimmer. The morning session is the pick of the early days. We’ve got that clean, glassy water with the wind dropping right off to just a slight air, coming from the west. The swell is only 2 ft, but it’s a proper long-period SW groundswell (16 seconds). The combined energy is moderate at 421 units, but with zero wind, the ocean will look like a mirror. It’s small, but it will be the cleanest surf of the first week. For a log or a fun mid-length, this is your window.

After that, things take a turn. From Tuesday the 21st right through to Friday the 1st of August, it’s a real slog. A persistent NNW-N cross wind sets up, gusting from 9 to 19 mph, just ruining most of the waves. Swell sizes hover between 2 ft and 4 ft, mostly from the SSW, but the wave comment reads “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” for nearly every session. There’s a few days in there with some serious energy – like Saturday the 25th with 1637 units of combined swell energy from a very long period 21-second SSW groundswell – but those howling cross-winds (16 mph from the NNW) will trash any potential. It’s a classic Cape Mendocino pattern: plenty of ocean energy, but the wind just won’t let you have it. If the wind keeps up like this, the beach break setup looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle.

Looking into the second week, it’s more of the same story. The most promising session in the whole 16-day window is actually Monday morning on July 20th. That’s the standout. It’s the only time the wind goes glassy, and while the swell is small, the quality will be miles ahead of anything else on offer. For the rest of it, you’re looking at a long blank run of onshore or cross-shore winds that just won’t quit. The forecasts can change, but right now, this stretch looks lean. Keep an eye on it, though; it never stays bad here forever.

Stay patient, keep wax on, and wait for that glass-off.

Rusty

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