Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cooking.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, it’s a frustrating picture. We’ve got a lot of swell on the charts for Cape Mendocino, but the wind just won’t play ball for most of it. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions, with a messy onshore or cross-shore flow dominating. The first real shot at something clean doesn’t look to arrive until Tuesday, 1st of September.

Even then, it’s not the big stuff. That Tuesday morning (1st September) we see a light cross-offshore wind cleaning things up, with a small 3 ft swell from the SSW with a modest period around 13 seconds. The combined energy is only moderate at 343, so it won't have much punch, but it'll be clean. The afternoon picks up a little better, with a 4 ft NW windswell (period just 10 seconds), giving us 576 combined energy, and that clean, glassy feel holds. It’s small, but it'll be the best we’ve seen in a week.

The standout window, and the one I’m circling on the calendar, is around the 3rd and 4th of September. We’ve got a solid pulse of long-period groundswell arriving from the SSW. On Thursday the 3rd, expect a clean 3 to 3 ft swell with a period of 18 to 19 seconds. That’s proper energy, with combined readings of 1037 and 1217. The catch? The wind is cross-shore and moderate, so it’ll have some texture. Given the long period, this swell will be better for the more lined-up point and reef setups around the cape, as it might stand up too straight on the beach breaks. It’s an advanced-level setup at 3 ft? No, at that height it’s manageable, but if the swell faces up a bit, it’s a good challenge. Friday the 4th offers similar size and direction, with the same cross-shore wind and combined energy in the 1100-1200 range. This is your best bet for the whole forecast period—not perfect, but the only time we see a real groundswell with enough strength to make the less-than-ideal wind worth it.

The water is about average for the time of year, sitting around 57°.

Don't expect much from the second week. The swell hangs around, 3 ft from the SSW, but the wind stays stubbornly on it, and the period drops off. By Tuesday the 8th, the energy is back over 1000, but with that cross-shore breeze, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session. There’s a very long period swell showing for the 7th (22 seconds!), but it’s paired with a fresh 19 mph wind, making it a messy proposition.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are a write-off. Rideable, clean surf shows up on Tuesday the 1st of September, but it’s small. The real window, if you can be patient, is Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th. It’s not glassy, but that's your best chance at some genuine long-period groundswell with enough energy to make it worthwhile.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

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