Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for the Cape Mendocino area.

Straight up, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off for decent surf. We’ve got a long, dry spell from Sunday the 13th right through until the morning of Monday the 21st of September. During that stretch, the swell is either too weak, too cross-chop-ridden, or just plain messy. The winds are mostly cross-shore and moderate to fresh, which is not what we want. There are a few small pulses of long-period groundswell in the second half of that period, but they’re tiny—around 2 ft to 3 ft—and the wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave. Don’t bother paddling out.

Now, things start to look more interesting from Wednesday the 23rd of September. We’ve got a proper NW groundswell showing up, with swell heights around 5 ft and a period of 12 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 1061 (moderate energy), which is a big step up from the junk we’ve been looking at. The wind is still cross-shore and moderate, but it’s manageable. This is the first real sign of life. It’s not perfect, but it’s worth a look if you’re desperate.

The standout, the one that gets my blood pumping, is Thursday the 24th of September. By Thursday afternoon, we’re looking at a solid 8 ft swell from the NW with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 2553 (strong to very strong wave energy). This is a serious swell. Now, here’s the catch: the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph from the north, which will put a bit of a chop on it. But for an exposed spot like Cape Mendocino, that size with that period is going to produce some heavy, powerful lines. This is advanced-level stuff; over 8 ft, it’s expert territory. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Friday the 25th of September is also promising. We’ve got a 7 ft NW swell in the morning, period 11 seconds, and the wind swings light from the SSW—that’s a cross-offshore breeze. That light wind will make a massive difference for clean faces. The combined energy is 1402 (strong). This is the best quality window of the whole outlook. If you can, get out Friday morning for the best chance at a clean, powerful session.

After that, the swell drops off a bit through the weekend, with smaller NW swell in the 4 ft to 6 ft range and the wind turning more onshore again. Not a total loss, but not the highlight.

Summary: Don’t even think about it until Wednesday the 23rd. The real standout is Friday morning the 25th of September—best swell size, best wind, cleanest conditions. Thursday the 24th afternoon is for the big-wave chargers only.

Rusty.

Read more