Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it’s Rusty here.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks look pretty average for the Cape. We’re not looking at any proper, solid surf days where you’d be rushing to get your wettie on. There’s a lot of cross-shore breeze messing things up, and the swell is small and not doing much for most of the forecast.

The water is sitting at 54°F at the start, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the good rubber on.

We kick off with a flat, messy run right through the first week. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see tiny 0.8ft to 1.0ft SSW swells, but it’s all cross-shore chop and the waves are pretty much junk. The energy is weak to moderate, around 378 to 381 on Monday, and honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for anything more than a float.

Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th are a touch better in the morning, but still only marginal. You’ve got that same cross-shore wind, and the swell is only around 3ft with periods of 14 to 16 seconds. There’s a slight bump in energy (502 to 512), but the quality just isn’t there.

Then it fades out again towards the end of the week. Friday the 21st drops to a pathetic 1ft to 2ft, and the weekend is not much better. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are small with long-period SW swells, but the onshore/cross-onshore wind has the surface all torn up. It’s a frustrating stretch of a few days with basically no prospects.

Early next week, Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, the breeze eases a bit, but the swell is still tiny, at 2ft to 2ft. It’s marginal at best. You might get a clean-ish wave with that light wind, but don’t expect much.

The rest of that week looks like more of the same onshore junk. The winds pick up again, with a fresh cross-shore showing on Wednesday afternoon, and the swell stays weak.

Now, the promise of something bigger is way out at the end of the period. On the 28th of August, the models are showing a jump in swell to 6ft, but it’s from the NW with a short, weak period of 7 seconds and the energy is moderate at 618. That’s what we call a windswell, and it’s going to be messy with the cross-shore winds. That won’t be a clean, classic day. The better energy builds right at the very end of August and into the first of September. The 29th and 30th see the energy jump into the strong zone (517 to 739) and the swell bumps up to 3ft, but the winds are still cross-shore or cross-on, so it’s going to be lumpy. The 31st and the 1st of September keep that energy, but again, the wind is just not giving us a break.

For a spot like Cape Mendocino, which is exposed and fairly consistent, we usually need the wind to swing offshore. That’s the missing ingredient for this whole run. It’s hard to find a standout in this forecast. If I had to pick one, it would be the morning of the 25th of August – the swell is small, but the wind is lighter, and you could snag a few clean-ish little lefts. But even that is a stretch.

It’s looking like a period for kites, to be honest. The cross-shore breeze and small, poor surf quality at this exposed beach setup will favour the kites over the paddle boards.

There’s a lot of nothing on offer for the next 16 days. It doesn’t stay this poor forever, and forecasts can change, but right now you’d be better off doing something else.

Rusty.

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