Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next stretch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough run. The whole 16-day window is lookin’ pretty bleak for anything worth paddling out for. We’ve got a whole lot of cross-shore wind and messy, choppy conditions, and the swell is just not cooperating. For the first few days, from the 13th to the 15th, it’s a complete write-off. The water is a chilly 51° on the 13th, which is 5° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a real shock to the system, and you’ll be feelin’ that even through a thick wetsuit. The combined wave energy is weak (554) and the wind is a solid 16 mph from the NNW, making for a lumpy, cross-chop mess. It’s just poor surf conditions, plain and simple.

We do start to see a bit of a pulse around the 16th and 17th. Thursday the 16th brings a 6 ft NW swell with a short 7-second period, but that cross-shore wind is still messing it up. The energy is moderate (815), but the “marginal” tag is right – it’s not gonna be pretty. Friday the 17th morning is a bit of a tease: a 3 ft WNW swell with a really long 17-second period, giving it a high energy reading (1001). That’s a proper groundswell, but at a beach break like Cape Mendocino, that long period is gonna make it break too straight and close out. Plus, the wind is still cross-shore. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s a real “if you’re desperate” kind of call.

After that, it’s a long, grinding slide back into nothing. From the 18th all the way through to the 28th, we’re stuck with a mix of tiny swells, long-period junk, and a relentless cross-shore, often a fresh breeze at 19 mph. The energy numbers are all over the place, but the surf quality is just not there. It’s a long stretch of flat to poor conditions. The only flicker of hope is on the morning of Friday the 24th, with a 3 ft SSE swell, but again, it’s marginal at best.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t a proper one. If I had to point to the best on offer, it’s that Friday the 17th morning. The swell energy is high (1001), and the long period means there’s power, but it’s a gamble for the reasons I said. For a more reliable, but still average session, the 16th might be it. But don’t get your hopes up. This is a classic case of a long, quiet period for this area – it happens. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy and check back in a few days.

Rusty.

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