Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about what's happening at Cape Mendocino.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next week and a half is looking pretty grim. Don't get your hopes up. We've got a long stretch coming up where the conditions just aren't cooperating. From Monday the 6th all the way through to Friday morning the 17th, the surf is a write-off. The wind is howling out of the north and northwest, putting a nasty cross-chop on everything. The swell is there, but it's a messy mix, and the wind just ruins it. It's going to be a frustrating period for anyone trying to get a wave.

Now, let's look at the numbers. On Monday the 6th, we have a 3 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the energy is moderate at 1090. But the 12 mph NNW cross-wind just kills it. The water temperature is a chilly 51°, which is 5° colder than normal for this time of year. That's a big anomaly, so you'll definitely want a thick wetsuit. The situation doesn't improve much for the next week. The wind stays strong, the swell direction is all over the place, and the scores are bottom-of-the-barrel. There's a brief moment on Friday the 10th where the swell bumps up to 7 ft from the NW, but it's short-period at 8 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore. That's a messy, blown-out combo that's way too big for beginners and only for the most hardcore experts who don't mind a battle.

The whole pattern is relentless. The wind shifts a bit but stays in that problematic cross-shore range, and the swell energy fluctuates between weak and moderate, never really locking in. For instance, the 16th of July has a 2 ft WNW swell with a very long 19-second period, but that energy is high (581) and the wind is a fresh 19 mph. That long period groundswell would be a dream at a point break, but with this wind, it’s just a crumbly, choppy mess at the beach.

But hold on. There's a light at the end of the tunnel. The real standout, the only period worth circling on your calendar, is Saturday the 18th of July. This is the one. The morning brings a 3 ft WNW swell with a 16-second period and a glassy, offshore wind from the SW at just 3 mph. The energy is a solid 632. The afternoon gets even better: the wind goes completely flat, dead calm, from the SSW at 0 mph, with a 3 ft SW swell at a very long 18 seconds. The energy climbs to 763. This is clean, glassy surf. It's not huge, but it will be the best shaped, most fun waves we've seen in the entire forecast. The crowd profile says "sometimes," so expect a few others to have the same idea.

The following Sunday and Monday slip back into mediocrity with light but onshore winds and marginal conditions. So, your window is clear: Saturday the 18th is the session. It's a long way out, so the forecast could shift, but right now, that's the only play.

This is Rusty, signing off. Good luck out there.

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