Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what Cape Mendocino has on offer for the next 16 days. I’ll be honest – it’s a tough outlook. The first week is mostly a washout, and the second week only has a couple of moments that might get you out of bed. Water temp is 53°F, which is nearly 5°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a serious chill, so pack the thick rubber.

The first possible session is Friday morning, September 4th. There’s a northwest swell at 7ft, period 11 seconds, and the combined wave energy is moderate to strong at 1704. The wind is light from the SSW, blowing cross-shore, so it’s clean enough, but the waves are marginal and the tide is questionable. Not worth getting keen on.

Saturday the 5th goes downhill. Swell drops to 4ft, but it’s a long-period SSW groundswell at 16 seconds. That kind of period can make the waves close out and go straight at an exposed break like this. Wind picks up from the north to 15–20 mph, creating cross-chop by the afternoon. Sunday to Tuesday the 6th–8th is even worse – weaker swell, strong northerly winds, and messy onshore conditions. You’re basically looking at a write-off from Saturday morning through Wednesday.

Thursday the 10th is the first little glimmer. Swell is only 3ft but it’s a clean, long-period SSW groundswell at 17 seconds. The wind goes light and cross-offshore from the NNE, giving you clean, glassy conditions. Combined energy is moderate at 690. It’s a small day, but for a log or a fish, it’ll be the best you’ll see in the first week.

Friday the 11th brings a jump in size – a 7ft southerly swell, but the period is short at 9 seconds and winds are cross-on from the NNW. Combined energy is strong at 1517, but it’ll be lumpy and jumbled. Not the day to pull out the step-up.

From Sunday the 13th onward, it’s a major lull. Swell drops below 3ft, and the wave energy falls into the weak range (as low as 246). Strong north winds blow through most of the second week, making conditions poor. It’s a desert until the next standout.

That standout is Thursday morning, September 17th. Swell from the WNW at 4ft, period 9 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – flat calm from the southwest at just 3 mph. Combined energy is moderate at 493. It’s not big, but it’s clean and the break is fairly consistent and exposed. Crowds can pop up here sometimes, so get there early. That’s your golden window.

So, the bottom line: first week is a bust. Thursday the 10th offers a small, tidy session, and Thursday the 17th is the real standout for clean conditions. Everything else is either too weak, too windy, or both. Keep an eye on that 17th – it’s a way out so treat it as promising, not guaranteed.

Rusty.

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