Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The outlook for Cape Mendocino over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long dry spell with very little to get excited about for a paddler.

The first week is dominated by a persistent, strong northerly wind that’s howling at 19 mph most days, creating a lumpy, cross-shore mess. The energy is there – you’ll see combined wave energy readings well into the three-digit range, like 1109 on Monday morning – but that's not the kind of power you want. It’s a short-period, wind-affected swell (SSW around 18 seconds) that’s being chopped up by the wind. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty average for this time of year.

We start on Monday, July 27th, with a tiny window of hope. The swell is a long-period 4ft from the SSW, but it’s crossed up by a 12 mph NNW wind. You’ll get a few sets, but the quality is marginal. The wind stays onshore and cranks up, so the rest of the week is a washout. By Thursday, July 30th, it's dropping to 3ft, and the wind is still a solid 19 mph. The whole first week is a right-off for quality surf.

We then hit a real slump. From Friday, August 1st, right through to Sunday, August 10th, the swell drops to tiny 1ft to 2ft junk. The wind stays relentless from the north, pounding the coast. The combined energy drops to low two-digit values, like 67 on Wednesday, August 5th. It’s just not surfable. This is a solid 10-day gap with no worthwhile recommendations.

The only glimmer on the horizon is Monday, August 11th. The wind finally eases a bit to a 9 mph NNW breeze, but it’s still cross-onshore. The swell is a tiny 2ft, so it’s not going to offer much. There’s a slight uptick in energy on Friday, August 7th, with a 2ft, 21-second SSW groundswell, but the wind is still 22 mph.

Honestly, for the entire 16-day window, there’s no standout. The waves are small, the wind is strong, and the conditions are poor. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-shore wind might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a tough stretch. It’s one of those spells where you just have to wait for the forecast to change.

Rusty.

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