Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Oi, this is Rusty. Lookin’ at the Cape Mendocino forecast for the next 16 days, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The whole run is plagued by persistent cross-shore to cross-onshore winds, often blowing fresh at 12-19 mph, which is gonna chop things up and keep the quality low. The water is unusually cold, sitting at 50°F with a negative temperature anomaly of -4°F, so much colder than you’d expect for July.

There are literally no good surf options here in the 16-day window. The finder shows a big fat zero for scores for the first couple of days with “poor surf conditions” as the wave comment, and when conditions are described as “marginal”, it’s only a 1 out of 10. It’s not until July 15th and 16th that we see a few hints of something better, but even then, the wave comments are “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with no score above 1.

Starting off today, Friday July 3rd, you’ve got clear skies but a cross-shore wind from the N at 16 mph. Swell is 5 ft from the NW with a short period of 7 seconds, and a combined energy of 455 (moderate). The water is a chilly 50°F. “Poor surf conditions” sums it up.

Saturday July 4th is similar, with a morning swell of 6 ft from the NW (same short 7 second period, energy 607) but cross winds from the NNW at 16 mph. The afternoon drops to a tiny 1 ft from the SSW with a very long 20 second period (energy 353) – that’s more of a lake than surf. Still “poor”.

Sunday July 5th brings a morning swell of 5 ft from the NW, 8 second period, energy 668, but it’s cross-onshore from the NNW at 12 mph. Choppy and poor. The afternoon has some long-period 3 ft SSW energy (529, 18 sec period) but quality is “marginal” at best.

We go through a long run of days from July 6th to July 15th. Monday July 6th morning has 7 ft from the NW (8 sec, energy 1236 – strong) but cross-onshore winds and “marginal” conditions. Tuesday July 7th through Thursday July 16th sees mostly weak swell from the SSW or WNW, under 4 ft, with long periods (14-21 seconds) but relentless cross- or cross-onshore winds at 16-19 mph. The combined swell energy vacillates between 248 and 1194, but nothing is clean. The period on the 15th hits 21 seconds for a 2-3 ft WNW swell, which is promising in theory for a point break, but this is a beach setup so those super long-period waves will likely break straight and be hard to manage.

Thursday July 16th offers the best chance in the whole outlook. Morning sees 3 ft from the WNW at 19 seconds, with energy of 1137 (strong). Afternoon bumps to 4 ft from the WNW at 17 seconds, energy 1056. Still, the wind is cross from the NNW or N at 16-19 mph, and the wave comment is only “marginal.” The cross-shore wind with a lumpy cross-chop on the afternoon will ruin any chance of a clean face.

Friday July 17th has a similar 4-4 ft WNW swell (16 sec period, energy around 918-936) but cross-onshore and cross winds, so no dice. Saturday July 18th closes out with 3 ft WNW at 16 sec and a fresh cross-shore wind. Nothing to write home about.

Bottom line: with no offshore winds and persistent cross and cross-onshore breezes, Cape Mendocino is a no-go for surf through this entire 16-day period. The winds and chop are so consistent that this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Keep the board in the car, and wait for a better run. Forecasts can change, but right now, it's a blank stretch.

Rusty

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