Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me break down the surf outlook for the next 16 days.

To be brutally honest right off the bat, it’s looking pretty grim for paddle surfing around here. The window starts with a few pulses of swell, but the wind is just never our friend. We’re looking at a long stretch of frustrating conditions, and I’m not seeing a single standout session that’ll have you racing for your wetsuit.

The first real chance of any action comes Sunday, July 19th. We’ve got a 6ft NW swell for the morning, but don’t get too excited. The wind is cross-on from the NNW at 9 mph, making it a fairly choppy mess. The combined energy is moderate (902), but the wave comment just says “marginal”, and honestly, it’s not worth the paddle out. The water is a very unusual 51°, which is a massive 6° colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be freezing your tail off for nothing.

Monday, July 20th, is more of the same. The morning has a 6ft NW swell, with a light onshore wind. The wind state is “unknown” for the morning, which is always a red flag, and the afternoon has a long-period 16-second SW groundswell at 3ft, but it’s cross-on. The combined energy is moderate (881), but the wind just kills it.

We then hit a massive dry spell. From Tuesday, July 21st, all the way through to the end of the first week of August, the data is almost entirely “poor surf conditions” with scores of zero. The wind is relentless, coming from the north or NNW at 12 to 22 mph, constantly cross or cross-on. It’s a lumpy, choppy, blown-out mess. The swell is a mix of short-period junk and some longer-period SSW groundswells, but the wind is so strong it’s only good for kite surfing. The combined energy does spike up to strong levels on the 24th and 25th of July, with over 1000 energy, but with a 16 mph crosswind, it’s just a big, bumpy, dangerous wall for a paddle surfer.

Towards the end, on August 2nd and 3rd, we see a slight drop in wind speed, but it’s still cross-on, and the swell is small and weak. The combined energy drops to 308 and 267, which is just weak. There’s no chance of a clean wave.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there isn’t one. The whole 16-day window is a washout. The combination of persistent, strong winds and poor surf quality means you’re better off finding a new hobby for a few weeks. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not entirely unusual when the north winds set in.

Stay tuned, but expect to be disappointed.

Rusty.

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