Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's cooking at Cape Mendocino.

Honestly, looking at the next couple of weeks, it's a pretty grim run. We're looking at a long stretch of mostly poor conditions, with wind and swell alignment just not working in our favour for the most part. The water is sitting at a very cold 51°, which is a full 5° colder than normal for this time of year, so you'll want a thick steamer.

There's a big gap of several days with no real surf recommendations. The first window of anything worth paddling out for is Monday afternoon, July 6th, but even then it's a marginal call. We've got a 6ft swell from the NW, but with a short period of 8 seconds and a moderate cross-shore wind creating a chop, it’s not going to be pretty. The combined energy is moderate at 1159, but the wind will kill the shape.

The next slightly better moment comes on Monday morning, July 13th. Still a cross-shore wind, but the swell is a bit cleaner at 5ft from the NW with a 9-second period. It's a marginal wave at best, and the moderate breeze will keep things choppy.

The one standout, and I say that with caution, is Thursday afternoon, July 16th. A week and a half away, so far from guaranteed, but it’s the best we’ve got. The wind lightens up a touch to a cross 12 mph, and we see a mix of swells. The main one is a 8ft NW swell with a short, weak 8-second period, but there’s also a 3ft long-period groundswell from the WNW at 18 seconds. That longer-period energy will bring some shape, and the combined energy is a solid 1211. This spot is fairly consistent but for an advanced-only crew; at 8ft it’s getting into expert territory. A point break or reef would be ideal for that long-period wave, but at Cape Mendocino's exposed beach setup, those long-period sets could close out a bit. Still, it's the cleanest looking window on the cards.

For the rest of the run, from Tuesday the 7th through to Monday the 20th, it’s a parade of 12-22 mph cross-shore winds, small lumpy swell, and scores that don’t excite. Several late July days see a drop to tiny 2ft to 2ft leftover swell and even stronger winds. There’s just no spark.

Bottom line: save your energy. If you're desperate, keep an eye on the 16th of July for a possible session. Otherwise, this forecast is a blank stretch—it’s one of those runs for the area. Forecasts can always flip, but right now, there's nothing to rush for.

Rusty.

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