Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Cape Mendocino.

Honestly, folks, if you’re itching to paddle out at Cape Mendocino in the next couple of weeks, you’re going to have to dig deep for patience. The immediate start is a write-off, and the pattern that follows is pretty grim for clean, ridable waves. We've got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds battering the coast, making a mess of things.

The problems start immediately. Monday the 6th of July is a non-starter. There is some energy in the water, with a combined swell energy of 1121 (strong), but that’s coming from a short-period 6ft NW windswell under a cross-on NW breeze at 9 mph. It’s going to be choppy and poor. That afternoon we get a 3ft SSW groundswell with a lovely period of 16 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore at 12 mph. The water temperature is a very unusual 51°, which is 5° colder than normal for this time of year, so a thick wetsuit is mandatory.

From Tuesday the 7th through to Monday the 13th, it’s a brutal run of "poor surf conditions". Winds are relentless from the N or NNW, always cross or cross-on, 12 to 19 mph. It’s just lumpy, messy, and not worth the effort. A real shame, because that persistent southern hemisphere groundswell is sending in those lovely long-period sets from the SSW, but the wind is completely trashing it. That long-period, high-energy swell is being wasted.

There is a tiny flicker of possibility around Sunday the 12th of July morning. A 6ft NW swell shows up with a period of 10 seconds and combined energy of 813 (moderate). But the wind is still cross-shore from the north at 16 mph, and the forecast calls it poor. This pattern continues with smaller NW swells and the same miserable wind through the rest of that week.

Honestly, for a setup that is an exposed point-and-reef, the wind never lets up. With that much cross-shore and onshore wind, and consistent swell over 5ft, this is looking more interesting for kite surfing than a clean paddle session.

As we head into the second week, around Monday the 20th of July, we finally get a lighter wind forecast. A light SSW breeze at 6 mph, cross-on. But the swell drops to a tiny 2ft from the SW with a period of 17 seconds. It’s still marginal and the energy is low (396). Not exactly a standout.

The only real standout moment in this whole 16-day window is the afternoon of Sunday the 19th of July. A clean 3ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period and a gentle NNW breeze. The combined energy is 522 (moderate). If you have a log and paddle out at a sheltered spot that can handle that long period, there could be a few clean, groomed lines to be had. It’s the only time the stars nearly align.

Overall, this is a long, frustrating dry spell for Cape Mendocino. If you’re a local, you know it’s a waiting game. Keep an eye on the charts because a forecast this persistently poor has to break at some point. The good news is breaks like this don't stay flat forever.

Rusty.

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