Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Cape Mendocino has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it's a bit of a slow start. The first few days are looking pretty average, with a lot of cross-shore wind messing up the shape. You’re not going to want to rush out there just yet. We’ve got a long gap here with no real standout surf until we get towards the end of the month. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

For Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th, we’ve got some small, long-period groundswell rolling in from the WNW, around 3ft with a period of 16 to 17 seconds. That’s a classic groundswell with real energy behind it, but the wind is a cross-shore moderate breeze, so it’s not going to be clean. The combined energy is moderate (832 and 1146), but the conditions are just poor to marginal. It’s gonna be a bumpy, choppy mess.

Sunday the 19th sees a bit of a jump in size on the morning, with a 7ft swell from the NW, but it’s a short-period windswell (8 seconds) and the wind is still cross. That’s a lot of water moving around but no real shape to it. The energy is moderate (987), but it’s not one for the log.

Monday the 20th through to Thursday the 24th is a real nothing-burger. Swell drops right off, mostly under 3ft, with a mix of light cross-onshore and cross-shore winds. The combined energy drops into the low hundreds (295 to 882). It’s pretty bleak, to be honest. You’d be better off doing something else.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Friday the 24th of July in the afternoon, we start to see a change. A solid 3ft swell from the SSW with a very long period of 24 seconds rolls in, combined energy hitting 1254. The wind is light and onshore, but the potential is there. This is a proper groundswell, and it’s going to wrap around the points and reefs at Cape Mendocino. It’s a long period, so it’ll break a bit straight at the beach, but for the right setup, it’ll be lined up.

The real standout, though, is the weekend of the 26th and 27th of July. Saturday morning the 25th has a 4ft SSW swell with a 21-second period, and the wind is light cross-shore from the NNW. This is the best window we’ve got. The combined energy is strong (1475). That’s a clean, lined-up groundswell with light wind. It’s not going to be huge, but it will be quality. The break is fairly consistent, and you can expect crowds sometimes, so get there early.

Into Sunday the 26th, the swell holds around 4ft from the SW with a 20-second period, but the wind picks up to a fresh cross-shore during the afternoon. The morning will still be decent. The energy is very strong (1982). After that, through to the end of the month, the wind gets stronger and the conditions get lumpy again. The swell sticks around at 3ft to 5ft, but the cross-shore fresh breeze kills it.

The second week of the outlook is a write-off. The wind is honking from the N and NNW at 18-22 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. The swell is small and the energy is weak. Honestly, with that much wind and a beach setup, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a dud. The best bet is Saturday morning, July 25th at Cape Mendocino. You’ve got a solid 4ft groundswell from the SSW, light wind, and strong energy. It’s the only real window of clean, quality surf in the whole 16 days. Sunday the 26th morning is a backup, but the wind will get you. After that, it’s a long stretch of poor conditions.

Rusty.

Read more