Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cookin’.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look pretty grim for Cape Mendocino. We’ve got a real run of poor to marginal conditions and not a single standout session to get excited about. The first wave of any note doesn’t show up until Monday morning, July 20th, and even then, it’s a struggle.

The whole pattern is dominated by a persistent NNW to N cross-shore breeze, which is a real buzzkill. For most of the coming days, the wind is sitting in that 15 to 30 mph range, and it’s almost always cross-onshore or just plain cross, leaving the surface lumpy and chopped. The water is a brutal 51°F, which is a massive 6°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a shocking anomaly, so bring a thick hooded suit.

Let’s start with the first chance, Monday morning the 20th. We’ll see a 6 ft NW swell, but it’s a short period 8 seconds windswell, and it’s meeting a cross-onshore WNW breeze at 3 mph. The energy is moderate (792), but the quality is already marked as marginal. The shape is going to be a mess. That afternoon, the swell drops to 3 ft but the period jumps to 16 seconds on a SW groundswell, which is a better direction. The energy is strong (909), but the wind is still cross-on from the NW. It’s a tease.

The rest of that week into the next is a repetitive loop of small, weak swells and cross-wind. We see a few pulses of longer period SW and SSW groundswell, like the 24-second stuff on Friday the 24th with strong energy (1130), but the N wind is cranking at 30 mph and it’s a cross-shore, lumpy mess. The break is fairly consistent and exposed to the SW, which is a plus, but it’s not enough to save it.

Around the 25th to the 28th, the combined energy climbs into the 1200-1600 range, which is strong. The swell holds around 3 ft to 4 ft from the SW, with periods of 17 to 21 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. But again, the wind is a relentless cross-shore from the N or NNW at 25 to 30 mph. The forecast for these days is still just marginal or poor. For a break like Cape Mendocino, that long period swell is better on a point or reef, but here the wind is just ruining the surface.

By the time we hit the end of the month and into the beginning of August, the wind actually picks up to 30 to 35 mph, and the swell period drops back to 8 to 12 seconds. The energy drops to the 200-900 range, and the surf quality is marked as poor across the board. The 1st of August brings a 6 ft NW windswell, but with that 35 mph N wind, it’s going to be a complete washing machine. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, bottom line fellas: there is no true standout here. The best of a bad bunch is probably the morning of the 28th of July, with a 4 ft SW swell (17 seconds) and moderate energy of 1000, but the wind is still a cross-shore from the N at 25 mph. You might find a few clean shoulders if you sit in the right spot, but you’ll be working for it. Don’t get your hopes up for the second week; it’s a write-off with strong winds and weak, short period choppy waves.

It’s a tough run for the Cape, but the coast can turn around quick. Stay tuned.

Rusty.

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