Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days at Cape Mendocino are a tough watch. The whole stretch is plagued by persistent cross-shore winds, mostly from the north, blowing at 15 to 25 mph. That means the surface is going to be chopped up and lumpy, with a constant cross-chop. The swell is small to tiny, and the wave energy is low to moderate. There’s no standout session, no magic window. It’s a flat, windy grind.

The first real chance of anything surfable is a long way off, on Tuesday morning, 28 July. Even then, it’s not great. We’ve got a 4 ft swell from the SW, with a very long period of 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s hitting a beach that’s exposed to the wind. The combined energy is moderate (915), but with a 15 mph cross-shore from the north, it’s going to be a mess. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no big anomaly to report.

The afternoon of the 28th bumps up to 4 ft from the SSW with an 18-second period, and the energy climbs to 1139, but again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore. It’s a marginal situation, and the score reflects that. Wednesday the 29th is more of the same: 4 ft to 3 ft, long period, but the wind stays strong and cross. The energy is moderate to strong (935-1317), but it’s just not clean.

From Thursday 30 July onward, the swell drops off a cliff. We’re looking at 3 ft sliding down to 1 ft by the first week of August. The energy plummets to weak, two-digit numbers. The wind doesn’t let up, staying fresh to strong from the north. Nothing to get excited about.

There’s a brief, weird spike right at the end on Sunday afternoon, 9 August, where a 7 ft NW swell with a short period of just 7 seconds appears. The combined energy is 715, but it’s a short-period windswell, and the wind is still a fresh cross-shore. That’s a messy, lumpy wave for experts only, and it’s still rated poor. The following Monday, 10 August, has a 5 ft to 7 ft NW swell, but again, period is short (8-9 seconds) and the wind is strong. Too big for beginners, too messy for anyone else. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The final few days, 11-12 August, see a tiny 2 ft SW groundswell with a long period of 15-18 seconds, but the wind switches to a light cross-onshore. The energy is moderate (367-470), but the swell is just too small to do anything with.

So, there’s no standout. Honestly, the best bet is to not bother. The entire 16-day window is a write-off. If you absolutely have to get wet, the Tuesday 28 July morning has the most size and the longest period, but you’ll be battling a strong cross-wind. That’s the reality. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a blank run.

Rusty.

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