Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what the next couple weeks have in store for us.

Overall, it’s a pretty quiet and frustrating stretch for surf at Cape Mendocino. The first week is a write-off with poor conditions and messy wind, so you might as well save the wax. There’s a long gap of nothing much to recommend until things start to look a little more promising right at the very end of the forecast.

We kick off with Saturday, July 4th, but honestly, don’t bother getting wet. A northwest wind howling at 16 mph is making a mess of the 6 ft NW swell. The period is a short, weak 7 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 566 – just a jumbly, cross-shore chop. It’s poor all day, and that theme continues right through Sunday and Monday. The swell tries to get some muscle, hitting 7 ft on Sunday afternoon (energy 1086), but the wind keeps it chopped up and ugly. Monday brings a confusing mix of leftover NW energy and a new 3 ft, 16-second groundswell from the SSW, but the cross-onshore keeps it a no-go.

Tuesday the 7th through to the middle of the following week is a desert. We’re looking at tiny 2 ft to 4 ft swells, mostly from the SSW, with persistent 16 to 22 mph cross-shore winds. The energy is moderate at best, but the wind is just too strong to produce anything but lumpy, poor surf. You can forget about the break until the 14th.

There’s a tiny flicker of hope around Wednesday the 15th of July. We get a new, very long-period 2 ft swell from the WNW with a period of 21 seconds and a combined energy of 505. That’s that deep ocean groundswell. The wind is a light cross-shore at 9 mph, so it will be clean. For a spot like Cape Mendocino that’s exposed to the SW, this WNW direction isn’t ideal, and the size is tiny, but for a patient surfer on a log, those long-period lines might offer a few peelers. It’s a very marginal, blip of a session.

The best of a bad run, and the only true standout in this whole 16-day outlook, looks to be Thursday morning, July 16th. Cape Mendocino should see a slight pulse from the WNW again, with 3 ft of swell at an 18-second period. The combined energy is 589. But the key detail is the wind: a light 6 mph from the NW. That's a light cross-onshore, but it's light enough to keep things mostly smooth. It’s not going to be pumping, and the 3 ft is small, but it might just be the cleanest window we get. For confident surfers willing to work for a few small, long-period waves, this is the morning to try.

After that, the forecast turns windy again and fades out. The Saturday the 18th brings another attempt at a 5 ft NW swell, but the 8-second period and cross-onshore wind mean it’s back to the choppy, messy stuff.

So, bottom line: it’s a grim 10 days, then a couple of tiny, clean windows around the 15th and 16th. Don't hold your breath for anything epic.

Rusty.

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