Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Cape Mendocino for the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough run. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off, with barely a session that’s worth paddling out for. The water’s sitting at a cool 56°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be wanting a decent wetsuit.

The pattern is grim: persistent cross-shore winds, mostly from the north and NNW, gusting anywhere from 9 to 19 mph, and the swell is almost always on the small side, under 4 ft, with a long period (16–18 seconds) that’s better suited to a point or reef than a beach break. The combined wave energy is moderate, peaking around 797 (on the 29th morning) but still falling into the “three-digit” moderate range. The wind is never truly offshore or glassy – it’s always cross or cross-onshore, so the surface is chopped and lumpy. There’s a long stretch from Wednesday 26 August right through to Tuesday 1 September where every single session is marked “poor surf conditions.” Not a single day in that block gets above a score of 1 out of 10.

The only flicker of something halfway interesting shows up on Friday 4 September morning, when the swell bumps up to 7 ft from the NW with a short period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1377 (strong). That’s solid, but it’s a short-period, windswell-type wave, and with a N cross-shore at 16 mph, it’ll be messy. At 7 ft, it’s pushing into the zone where only advanced surfers should be out. The afternoon of the 4th still has some energy (1127), but it drops to 3 ft from the SSW. Still, the wind is cross, so don’t expect clean shoulders.

After that, it’s back to the grind: weak, cross-shore slop from the 5th through to the 10th of September, with swell heights mostly under 4 ft and energy fading back to moderate. There’s a very marginal morning on Tuesday 8 September with a 2 ft, 19-second SW groundswell – that long period could give a little shape, but it’s tiny and the wind is gentle cross-shore. Not exactly a standout.

Honestly, there’s no real standout in this 16-day window. The only break we’re looking at is Cape Mendocino, rated for advanced surfers, fairly consistent in exposure, but with crowds “sometimes” around. If you’re desperate, the 4th of September morning is the biggest push, but it’s more of a kitesurfing setup with that strong wind and short-period swell. For a proper paddle session, you’re better off waiting for a change in the pattern. The forecasts can always shift, but right now, it’s a blank run.

Rusty.

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