Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Cape Mendocino.

I gotta lay it down straight: the whole 16-day outlook is pretty flat. There’s a long stretch of poor surf starting now, with a lot of cross-shore winds that are just messing up the surface. The water is a cold 51°F – that’s a solid 5°F colder than it should be this time of year, so you’ll want a thick suit.

The first time you might even consider paddling out is Saturday, July 18th. It’s only “marginal” with a small 3ft swell from the WNW, 16-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, which can be a bit wonky at a beach break, but the energy is moderate (829). The wind is still a moderate cross-shore, so it’ll be lumpy.

Sunday, July 19th, is a bit better. By the afternoon, the wind drops to a light cross-shore breeze (3 mph) with a 3ft swell from the SW at a very long 17 seconds. The energy is solid (751). That lighter wind makes it the cleanest we’ll see, but with the swell being small and crowds being “sometimes” a thing, it’s a roll of the dice.

Then we hit another dry spell with poor conditions until Wednesday, July 22nd. That morning, a bigger pulse of 8ft NW swell rolls in, but it’s short-period at 9 seconds and the energy is strong (1211). At 8ft, it’s too big for beginners and only for experts. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore, so it’s gonna be a messy, powerful shorebreak.

The rest of the forecast, from July 25th onward, is just more of the same: small, inconsistent swells with cross-shore winds. Nothing lines up for a clean, top-quality session.

There’s no real standout here. The best bet is that Sunday afternoon, July 19th, with the light wind and the long-period groundswell – it’s the only window where the surface cleans up. The big swell on Wednesday, July 22nd, is for the hardcore crew who don’t mind a fight.

Keep your chin up, the forecasts can always change.
- Rusty

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