Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Cape Mendocino. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, but I’ve got my eye on a couple of moments that could be worth the paddle out. It’s an exposed spot that’s fairly consistent, but the wind is going to be the main player here.

First up, the water is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, sitting at 55°F with a anomaly of -3°F, so it’s a bit nippier than average. That’s the first thing you’ll feel when you hit the water.

The early part of the forecast is a bit of a write-off. From Friday 28th August through to the end of the month, we’ve got a cross wind blowing between 18 and 19 mph, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions”. The swell is there – a mix of SW and SSW swell, with heights around 2ft to 4ft – but that wind is just going to mess it up. It’s lumpy and choppy, not the kind of thing you want to be out in. The combined swell energy is moderate, ranging from 563 to 924, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

We get a little bit of a break on Monday 31st August and Tuesday 1st September. The wind drops right off, down to a light breeze, and the swell is still around 3ft to 4ft. The direction is a bit jumbled, with a mix of SSW and NW, but the period is a short 10 to 14 seconds. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast”, which is a step up from “poor”. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far. The combined energy is still moderate, between 472 and 775. It’s a chance to get a few, but don’t expect perfection.

Then, from Wednesday 2nd September, we’re back to poor conditions and cross winds for a few days. It’s a bit of a bummer.

Now, here’s the standout. On Thursday 3rd September, we’ve got a proper swell pushing in. The swell height jumps to 7ft from the NW, with a period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 2117. That’s a lot of power. The wind is a light breeze from the north in the morning, making it a light cross-shore. The wave comment is still “marginal”, but that’s mostly about the tide. For a surfer who knows what they’re doing, this is the one. This is big, powerful groundswell, so it’s for experts only. It’s going to be a heavy, powerful wave. The wind is the key here – if it stays light, it could be clean. Afternoon gets a bit of a cross-on wind, so the morning session on Thursday 3rd is your best bet.

After that, from Friday 4th September onwards, the swell drops off again and the wind picks up. We’re back to cross winds and poor conditions for the rest of the forecast. The second week just looks like a lot of choppy, messy surf with moderate to fresh cross winds. Not much to get excited about.

So, the bottom line: You’ve got to wait for Thursday 3rd September. That’s the one day where the swell is big and the wind is light enough to maybe make it work. It’s not for the faint-hearted, but that’s the highlight of the whole 16-day window. The rest of the time, it’s either blown out or just too small. It’s a bit of a waiting game.

Rusty.

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