Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m gonna be straight with you—this is a rough stretch for Cape Mendocino. The whole 16-day window is a tough read. The swell is mostly small and weak, and the wind is almost never doing us any favours. There’s no standout day, no real clean session to get excited about. The first few days are a write-off, and the pattern doesn’t really improve. The gaps are long and the quality is poor.

Let’s start with Sunday the 16th. The morning has some clouds and a gentle cross-shore breeze from the NNW at 9 mph. The swell is 3 ft from the SSW with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s a groundswell, but energy is moderate at 656, and the wave comment says it’s marginal with questionable tide. The wind is cross-shore, not clean, so the surf is a bit choppy. It’s not a beginner wave—it’s small but the long period means it’ll be a bit shifty at the beach break. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no anomaly to speak of. This is the best-looking session in the first week, and that’s saying something.

From Monday the 17th through to the end of the first week, it’s all poor. Winds are cross-on or cross with the swell dropping to 2 ft to 3 ft, and energy falls into the 300s to low 500s. The wave conditions are consistently described as "poor surf conditions" or "marginal" at best. The wind is always moderate, and the chop is there. The swell direction stays SSW, but the period varies from 14 to 16 seconds. Nothing to call home about.

The second week doesn’t get any better. There’s a bit of a bump on Saturday the 22nd with a 7 ft swell from the NW, but the period is short—only 8 seconds—and the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph. The energy is moderate at 678, but the waves are gonna be messy and lumpy. This is not a clean wave. It’s too big for beginners at 7 ft, and the short period makes it fat and crumbly. For experts, it might offer a few closeouts, but with the wind and chop, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than paddle surfing.

The only real spike in energy comes on Friday the 28th of August, about 12 days out. The morning shows a 8 ft swell from the NW with a period of 9 seconds, and energy jumps to 1402. That’s strong to very strong wave energy. But the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph, and the wave comment says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." The swell is too big for beginners, and for experts, the short period and cross-shore wind will make it a messy, choppy beast. The afternoon is similar at 8 ft. This is the only moment in the whole window with any real grunt, but it’s not clean. I’d call it promising but uncertain, given the long-range timing.

After that, the swell drops back to 3 ft and the energy falls to the 400s, with the same cross-shore wind pattern. The whole stretch from the 29th to the 31st is more of the same: small, weak, and unexciting.

Truth is, there’s no easy pick here. Cape Mendocino is exposed to the SW and prefers that direction, but the swell is too small and the wind is always wrong. The consistency is "fairly consistent" in the guidance, but for this 16-day window, it’s a blank run that’s pretty normal for the area. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the boards at home and check back in a week.

Rusty.

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