Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good look at what’s coming down the line for Cape Mendocino. I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty average for us.

Overall Pattern

We’ve got a bit of swell on the way, but it’s gonna be a struggle with the wind. For the first week, that persistent cross-shore breeze is going to mess things up. The wave energy is moderate at best, and the conditions are going to be lumpy. The best of what’s on offer is early on, but even that’s not a standout.

Sunday, July 26th to Tuesday, July 28th

The opening few days bring the most size, with swells hovering around the 4ft to 4ft range, coming from the SW and SSW. The period is long, around 17 to 19 seconds – that’s proper groundswell with some serious energy behind it, giving you waves with a bit of shape and long lulls between sets. The combined energy is strong (1285 on Sunday morning for example), so there’s power there. But honestly, the wind is a letdown. It’s a moderate cross-shore (9 to 16 mph) which means a cross-chop on the face. The breaks are exposed to a SW swell, but with that wind, it’s going to be hard work.

Wednesday, July 29th onwards

From Wednesday, things start to fall apart. The swell drops below 3ft, the period shortens up, and the combined energy fades. The wind actually picks up to a fresh 19 to 22 mph cross-shore (and later cross-offshore) making for lumpy, poor conditions. There’s a long stretch from Wednesday, July 29th, right through to Saturday, August 9th, where the conditions are just poor. Swell heights dip to as low as 1.0ft and 1ft, and while there’s a period of very long period swell (19 seconds on August 6th), with hardly any height (1ft), it’s not going to produce much.

The Blip – Thursday, August 6th

There is one tiny window. On Thursday afternoon, August 6th, the wind finally drops to glassy conditions. The swell is still tiny at 1ft, but the combined energy is weak (110). It’s surfable, but it’s not something to get excited about. For a true expert spot, it’s just not enough.

The Verdict

Look, I can’t sugarcoat it – there are no real standouts here. The first couple of days have the size and power, but the wind kills it. The rest is flat and windy. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so the 59° to 59°F water won't be a shock.

This is a blank run for Cape Mendocino. It’s a fairly consistent spot that can fire, but this forecast is a dud. Sometimes you just gotta wait for the next weather pattern. Keep an eye out, things can change fast around here.

Rusty.

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