Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a long, flat run with a lot of noise and not much to get excited about. The first real surf worth mentioning doesn't even show up until the very end of the forecast.

Saturday the 5th kicks off with a bit of a tease. We’ve got a 4ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a very long 16-second period, and the combined wave energy is a solid 1056. That’s a lot of energy in the water, but the wind is a cross-shore from the NNW at 9 mph, putting a slight chop on it. The water is sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. The trouble is, the forecast says it’s “marginal” with questionable tide conditions, and the score is low. It’s not clean enough to call it a standout. By the afternoon, the wind picks up to 12 mph and the quality drops further.

Sunday the 6th sees the swell drop to 3ft, still with a decent 15-second period, but the wind stays cross and bumpy. The energy drops to 615. Not great. Monday through to the middle of the second week is pretty much a write-off. We’re looking at small, weak swell – mostly under 3ft – with short periods and constant cross-shore winds. The combined energy stays in the 300-700 range, and the wave comments are all “poor” or “marginal.” There’s a stretch from the 7th right through to the 19th of September where there’s really nothing to recommend. A long, flat gap.

Now, if you’re patient, there’s a glimmer on the horizon. On Sunday the 20th of September, we see a change. The morning brings a 5ft WNW swell with a 10-second period and the energy is a strong 910. The wind is light, from the SSW at just 3 mph, making it a light cross-onshore. It’s still “marginal,” but the conditions are the best we’ve seen in weeks. The afternoon session on the 20th looks even better: the swell holds at 5ft, the period is 10 seconds, and the cross-shore wind from the south at 9 mph is manageable. The combined energy jumps to 1068. This is the one to keep an eye on – the only real window of opportunity in the whole 16-day forecast. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best on offer.

Given the lack of consistency and the long run of poor conditions, this feels like a typical quiet spell for the area. Forecasts can change, but for now, mark your calendar for the 20th if you’re keen.

Rusty.

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