Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for our stretch of coast.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead, with only a very brief window of something rideable. The water is sitting at 53° and that’s a whopping 5° colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick suit if you’re even thinking about getting in. The combined swell energy for the first few days is weak, hovering around 95 to 100 (weak energy), and it’s all cross-shore wind, so expect lumpy, bumpy, messy surf.

We’ve got a solid gap of nothing good from the start of the period all the way through to the 4th of August. Then, on the 5th of August, we finally see a pulse of energy. Wednesday morning kicks off with a 6 ft swell from the NW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell, so the waves will be a bit gutless and crumbly. The combined energy jumps to 583 (moderate wave energy), which is a real step up. The wind is light, cross-shore out of the SSW at 9 mph, so it’s not perfect, but it’s the best we’ll see. This is the one standout. Cape Mendocino will be the only option, and it’s an advanced-only wave. With 6 ft, that’s a bit much for beginners, and the short period means it’ll be a bit fat and hard to read. Wednesday afternoon is similar, 6 ft and 8 seconds, with a lighter 6 mph cross-shore wind. It’s marginal, but it’s the only rideable surf in the whole 16-day window.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. From the 6th of August right through to the 18th of August, every single session is rated as poor. The swell stays tiny, between 1.0 ft and 3 ft, with the wind howling onshore or cross-shore at 12 to 19 mph. The combined energy does climb into the 200s, 300s, and even 900s on the 15th of August (strong to very strong wave energy), but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. The swell direction swings around from SSW to WNW, but the wind never cooperates. For the advanced crew, the 15th of August sees 3 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, but with 19 mph cross-shore wind, it’s a no-go. The 18th of August has a glimmer of hope with an onshore 6 mph wind from the W and 2 ft from the W with a 15-second period, but it’s still only marginal at best.

So, the bottom line? If you’re a masochist, Wednesday the 5th of August is your day at Cape Mendocino. Otherwise, this is a long, blank stretch. The setup is honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing given the wind and chop. Stay patient, and remember, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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