Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Cape Mendocino. The 16-day outlook is a bit of a mixed bag, with some real standout moments buried in a lot of average to poor conditions. The water is running much colder than normal for this time of year, so bring the thickest wetsuit you’ve got.

We kick things off on Thursday, the 3rd of September. There’s a solid 7 ft swell from the WNW, but the forecast is pretty cautious. The conditions are a bit iffy, and the water temperature is a frigid 52°, a massive 7° colder than average. That’s a big red flag for comfort. The energy is strong though, with a combined swell energy of 1425, so there’s plenty of power in the water, but it’s not all coming together for a clean session.

Moving into Friday the 4th, the morning sees a 7 ft NW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore, making things a bit messy. The afternoon drops to 4 ft, but we get a very long period SSW groundswell of 17 seconds. That kind of period can produce some beautiful lines, especially at a point or reef, but here at a beach break it can be a bit too straight. Still, it’s worth a look if you can find a bend in the coast.

The weekend of the 5th and 6th is a write-off. Saturday has 4 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, but the wind is all over the place, and the energy drops to 937. Sunday is even smaller at 3 ft and the wind is getting stronger. The whole early stretch is filled with marginal surf, and the conditions are just not cooperating.

There’s a rough patch from the 7th through the 9th of September. Swell drops to under 3 ft and the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore. The energy levels are in the 500-900 range, which is moderate, but the wave quality is poor. It’s a frustrating few days.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday the 10th of September morning is a hidden gem. We’ve got a 3 ft SSW groundswell with a 17-second period, and the wind is from the NNE at 9 mph, giving a clean, cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is 758 (moderate), and the forecast is calling for "very good surf conditions." This is the standout of the first week. The break is fairly consistent, but it can get crowded, so get out there early. The swell is small, but that long period will make it punchy and fun.

Friday the 11th holds some promise with a 3 ft SW swell and 16-second period, but the wind is cross-shore, keeping it from being perfect. The energy bumps up to 1098, which is healthy.

Here’s the real gem of the entire outlook. On Saturday the 12th of September, the morning session is looking absolutely magic. The wind is glassy, dead calm, and the swell is a solid 5 ft from the NW with an 11-second period. Combined energy is 932. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This is your best window in the whole 16 days. Clean, lined-up waves with no wind. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon gets a bit breezy, but the morning is pure gold.

After that, the quality drops off fast. Sunday the 13th sees the wind come up strong from the N at 12-16 mph, making it choppy and messy. The rest of the second week is a struggle. From the 14th onwards, the wind is relentless, blowing 12-19 mph from the north, creating lumpy, cross-shore chop. The swell stays in the 3 ft to 6 ft range, but the energy is moderate and the conditions are poor. The morning of the 15th of September has a 6 ft NW swell and a cross-offshore wind, but it’s short period at 8 seconds and the energy is just 544.

The best of the second week is a gamble. The 18th of September afternoon has a 3 ft SW groundswell with a massive 20-second period and energy of 1004, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, so it’s a lumpy mess. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but don’t bank on it.

To sum it up: the standout is the morning of Saturday the 12th of September with glassy conditions and a solid 5 ft NW swell. The other top pick is the morning of Thursday the 10th of September, for the clean, long-period SSW groundswell. The rest of the window is a battle with the wind. This is a place that can pump, but it’s going to be a waiting game until those two windows.

Stay frothy, and don’t sleep on that glassy Saturday.

Rusty.

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