Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – looking at this 16-day window for Cape Mendocino, it's a grim stretch. We’re talking about a solid run of days where you’d be better off cleaning the wax off your board than paddling out. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn't show up until mid-month, and even then, it’s a bit of a gamble.

The water is the first thing you’ll notice. At Cape Mendocino, it's sitting at a frigid 51°F, which is a whopping 6° colder than usual for this time of year. That’s seriously unusual, so you’ll want a thick hood and boots.

The first half of August is a write-off. From the 4th through the 12th, we’ve got a persistent run of "poor surf conditions." Winds are a constant cross-shore mess, mostly from the north, and the swell is tiny – peaks around 2 ft. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting in the low to mid hundreds. There’s a brief moment on the afternoon of Tuesday the 4th where it goes glassy with a 1 ft SW groundswell (15-second period), but the energy is so low it’s barely a ripple. Not worth the drive.

Then, we hit a gap of several days with nothing to recommend. The next blip is on Thursday the 13th. Now, this one is interesting but tricky. The morning shows a solid 8 ft swell from the NW with a short period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is substantial, so there’s plenty of power, but that short period means it’ll be a bit of a close-out mess. The wind is a moderate cross-shore from the north, so it won't be clean. This is expert territory only – over 8 ft. For anyone else, it’s a washing machine.

The next hint of something better comes on Sunday the 16th. The morning shows a 6 ft NW swell with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is strong. Winds are a moderate cross-shore from the north. It’s still marginal, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. This is a true standout, but only as a "maybe" for the more experienced crew looking for a punchy, short-period wave at a spot that can handle it.

Honestly, if you’re a kitesurfer, this whole window might look more interesting than it does for us paddlers, with all that north wind and chop. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, but right now, you’re not missing much.

Rusty.

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