Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – looking at the Cape Mendocino stretch for the next 16 days, and it’s a tough one. The wind is the main problem. It’s almost always a cross-shore breeze, and often a fresh, lumpy one, which is going to chop up the surface. The swell is around, but it’s not combining with the right conditions to give us clean, rideable waves. We’re in for a long run of challenging conditions.

The first real surf we see kicks off Sunday the 23rd of August, but it’s messy. A 2ft SW groundswell with a very long 19-second period is pushing in, giving us moderate energy (442), but that 19 mph north cross-wind is killing it. The water temp is about average for this time of year. By Monday the 24th, the wind swings southwest and stays cross-onshore with a gentle breeze, and the swell mixes up – a weak 2ft SW groundswell (18s) and a short-period 5ft NW windswell (7s). The wave energy is moderate (609), but it’s “fairly choppy”. This pattern of messy, cross-shore wind and mixed swell hangs around for days.

There’s a bit more size on the 28th of August, with a 6ft NW windswell on Friday morning, but with 16 mph cross-winds, it’s not going to be pretty. The energy is moderate (680). The wind stays strong and cross-shore for the next week. Even when the swell bumps up to 7ft on the 2nd and 3rd of September, with strong energy (928 and 1066), the 16-22 mph north cross-winds will have it blown out and lumpy. This is expert-level size (over 8ft on the 3rd) but it’s unsurfable for most.

The real standout on paper, if you’re an expert and don’t mind a battle, is Thursday the 3rd of September. The swell is 7ft from the NW in the morning, with strong energy (1066), and a period of 8 seconds. That’s a lot of power, but it’s a short-period swell, which means it’ll be steep and dumpy. The wind is still a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, so it’s going to be a full-on, choppy, high-energy grind. Not for the faint of heart. The afternoon sees similar size (6ft) and even higher energy (1181), but with the same wind issues.

Honestly, if you’re after a paddle, this forecast is a washout. A setup this exposed, with persistent strong cross-shore winds and mixed swell, looks a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind is consistent, and there’s plenty of energy. For us with paddles, it’s going to be a waiting game. The good news is that the swell is here, so if the wind ever decides to ease off or go offshore, we’ll be in for a treat. But based on what I’m seeing, that’s a long way off.

Rusty.

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