Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get to it. The 16-day window is a tough one for Cape Mendocino. There’s no immediate surf to speak of, so we’ve got a gap right from the start. The first half of the period is dominated by small, weak, and choppy conditions with a lot of cross-shore wind. It’s not until Thursday the 13th that we see a pulse of energy, but it’s messy. The wave energy climbs into the moderate to strong range, hitting 715 (moderate wave energy) on the afternoon of the 13th, but the swell is short-period at 8 seconds and comes straight from the NW at 7ft – that’s a steep, dumpy beach break scenario. The wind is cross-shore from the NNW at 20 km/h (12 mph), so expect lumpy, cross-chop conditions. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

The water temperature is 53°F – which is 5°F colder than normal for this time of year. That’s notably chilly.

Friday the 14th morning offers the best chance for a wave, though that’s not saying much. Swell is 6ft from the NW at 8 seconds (still short period), with cross-onshore wind from the NW at 15 km/h (9 mph). The combined energy is 656 (moderate wave energy). It’s marginal, but it’s the most rideable size in the first week. Still, you’re fighting a gentle cross-onshore bump.

The second week isn’t any kinder. We get more small 3ft to 4ft SW groundswells, but the wind remains predominantly cross-shore or cross-onshore. The swell direction (SSW) is not the optimum SW for the break. A few sessions on the 16th, 18th, and 19th have light wind and the swell period climbs to 15–16 seconds (long-period groundswell), which would traditionally give cleaner lines at a reef or point, but at a beach break like Cape Mendocino, those long-period swells tend to close out. Combine that with the small size (3ft to 4ft), and it’s marginal at best. The wave energy is moderate (379 to 661).

From the 20th onward, it’s back to poor surf with moderate cross-shore wind and energy dropping into the 149–287 range (weak to low moderate energy). The afternoon of 23 August jumps up to 5ft from the NW at 8 seconds (short period), but again, it’s cross-shore and lumpy. No real standouts here. This is a blank run that feels normal for the area when the wind doesn’t cooperate. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a struggle.

Stay hopeful, but keep the board in the car for a quick dash if the wind shifts.

Rusty

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