Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let me break down what we’re looking at for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead. The first decent chance to even think about paddling out doesn’t come until Saturday the 5th, and even then it’s a real low-energy affair. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with almost nothing rideable, and that’s the story for most of the 16 days.

The one spot that pops up with anything at all is Cape Mendocino. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than your typical September average. The combined swell energy is moderate on the Saturday morning, hitting 1090, but it’s a long-period groundswell from the SSW at 4ft with a 16-second period. That period is a double-edged sword – it’ll bring some shape, but it might break a bit too straight and fat for the beach setup here. The wind is a cross-shore from the NNW at 9 mph, which is enough to keep it from being glassy, but it’s not trashing it either. The catch is, the forecast is calling it marginal, with questionable tide, so it’s a real gamble. The afternoon gets bumpier with a cross-shore wind picking up to 12 mph, so morning is your only real window.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th are basically write-offs – the swell drops to 3ft or less, and the wind stays a stiff cross-shore. The combined energy is still in the moderate range, but it’s just not clean enough to get excited about.

We hit a real dead zone from Tuesday the 8th all the way through to Wednesday the 16th. The swell stays tiny, the wind is mostly cross-shore or onshore, and the combined energy dips into the weak hundreds. There’s a brief flicker on Wednesday the 9th with a 4ft SSW swell and a 12-second period, but the wind is a light cross-onshore at 3 mph, and the energy is only 489. It’s just not worth the effort.

The only other time the swell gets above 3ft is on Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th, with 3ft to 4ft from the SW and a decent period, but the wind is screaming cross-shore at 12 to 19 mph. The forecast calls it poor – lumpy, choppy, and messy. Honestly, with that wind and only a beach setup, this looks more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-out.

Late in the window, on Friday the 18th of September, there’s a bump in size to 6ft from the NW with a short 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 1171. But the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore. That’s a washing machine, not a wave. It’s only for the hardcore, and even then, it’s a no from me.

There’s no true standout here, folks. The best of a bad bunch is the Saturday morning session on the 5th, and even that’s a low-percentage call. The rest of the 16 days is a long stretch of flat, choppy, or just plain ugly conditions. Sometimes it’s like this – a blank run. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy for the next swell.

Rusty.

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