Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the menu for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up: this is a challenging stretch of days. We’re looking at a long, quiet run with a bit of a pulse in the middle of the second week. For the most part, the surf is small and the wind is messy. The best of the bunch is a very long-range, promising swell window, but it’s a long way off and comes with some caveats.

Things start slow. From Tuesday the 21st of July right through to the end of the month, the wave energy is mostly moderate, hovering around 400 to 900 (combined energy units), but the quality is a constant struggle. The wind is almost always cross or cross-on, and the wave comments are all "marginal" or "poor." The standout in that first week is a tricky one: on Friday afternoon the 24th, a very long-period SSW groundswell of 3ft at 24 seconds shows up. The energy jumps to 1132 (moderate), but the swell period is so long (over 15 seconds) that at a beach break like this, it can break straight and turn into a close-out. It’s a glimmer, but not a sure thing.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th sees a bit more size, with 4ft to 4ft SW swell and periods around 19-21 seconds, and the energy gets strong (up to 1566). But again, the wind is a cross-shore, 12-16 mph, creating a cross-chop. The water temp is a notable 52°F – that’s 5°F colder than normal for this time of year, which is a very unusual chill. You’ll need a thick suit.

The first week of August is a total write-off. From the 1st to the 5th, it’s all small (1ft to 3ft) and onshore or cross-shore. The wind is a fresh breeze, 16-22 mph, and the wave energy drops to weak levels (under 300). The comments are all "poor surf conditions." This is a blank run.

The one true standout – and it’s a long-range shot – is on Friday the 31st of July. The afternoon shows a 7ft NW swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds. For a beach break, that’s weak, choppy energy. The wind is still a 16 mph cross-shore. Honestly, given the size and the wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s the only time we see a 6ft+ swell, but the conditions don’t align for a clean, classic wave.

The best on offer? It’s a toss-up between the very long-period groundswell on the 24th and the bigger NW swell on the 31st. Neither is perfect. I’d lean towards the early morning of the 24th for the cleanest potential, if you can handle the long-period close-outs. The 31st is for the experts only, with heavy, short-period, wind-affected waves. Don’t get your hopes up for the first week of August.

Rusty.

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