Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Honestly, looking at the next stretch, it’s a bit of a flat, blown-out mess for the first several days. The swell’s tiny and the wind’s got too much cross to it, so the ocean is just going to look like a washing machine. We’re talking about a pretty dull run from now through the end of August and into the first couple of days of September. There’s a solid gap where the surf really isn’t worth paddling out for; it’s all under 3 ft of weak, short-period slop with a constant cross-breeze. You’re better off waiting it out.

The first real glimmer of something shows up on Wednesday the 2nd. The swell starts to build from the NW, but it’s still grubby with a short period of 9 seconds. By Thursday the 3rd, we see the first bit of real size, with the swell hitting 5 ft in the morning and 8 ft in the afternoon. That’s a bit of a step up, and the energy is starting to get going, but it’s still cross-shore and lumpy. This is a period where it’s going from flat to stormy, not necessarily clean.

Things get serious on Friday the 4th. The morning brings a 8 ft NW swell with a 10-second period. Now, that’s a decent push of water, a strong to very strong energy reading (2107). But here’s the catch – it’s cross-onshore and choppy. For a spot like Cape Mendocino (North Coast) which is exposed to the open ocean, this is going to be a beast. That size is more than the beginners should be thinking about, and even for the advanced crew, the wind is going to make it a battle. It might honestly look more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing on that Friday. The energy in the water is undeniable, but the quality is poor.

After that big pulse, the surf settles down again. Saturday the 5th still has a 6 ft NW swell in the morning but it’s getting smaller and the wind is still cross-onshore. From there, we’re back to smaller, weaker swells for the second week. The period drops back down and we’re scraping at around 3 ft or less. There’s a brief look on Sunday the 6th with a 4 ft NW swell but the wind is still on it. And there’s one more interesting pulse in the long-range on Tuesday the 8th, a 20-second period from the SSW, but it’s only 2 ft, so all that long-period energy isn’t going to translate into much on the beach.

Honestly, if I have to call one standout in this whole window, it’s that Friday the 4th. It’s got the most significant size (8 ft) and the most raw energy (2107). It’s not going to be pretty, but the ocean will have some life in it. It’s a powerful, ground-swell-driven NW swell. The 10-second period is not huge, but it’s got some punch. Just know the winds are going to be messy, so if you’re an expert and you don’t mind a battle, that’s your day. Otherwise, keep waiting.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

It’s a frustrating outlook, to be honest. Plenty of waiting and watching the cams.

Rusty.

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