Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks at Cape Mendocino are a real mixed bag, and mostly a frustrating one. We’ve got a long stretch of lumpy, cross-shore wind and poor surf quality, with only a couple of afternoons offering a glimmer of hope. Let’s get into it.

The overall pattern is dominated by persistent cross-shore winds, mostly from the N and NNW, that are just chewing up the surface. There’s plenty of energy in the water, but it’s all messy. The first real bit of swell we see is on Thursday morning, July 9th, with a solid 4ft SSW groundswell (period 16 seconds) and a hefty combined energy of 1121 – that’s a lot of power. But the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore from the NNW, making it lumpy. The score is a 1 out of 10, and it’s just not worth paddling out for. Through Thursday afternoon, the swell jumps to 7ft from the NW, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds, and the wind is still cross-shore. That’s a lot of close-outs.

From Friday, July 10th, right through to Wednesday, July 15th, we’re in a ditch. The swell drops right off, the wind is relentless, and every single session is marked as “poor surf conditions.” The combined energy values are mostly in the 200-800 range, which is weak to moderate, but it’s all junk. There’s a quick spike on Thursday morning, July 16th, with a 8ft NW swell – that’s proper size, and energy is 1471 (strong). But the period is just 8 seconds, and it’s cross-shore. At that size, it’s only for experts, and with that wind, it’s going to be a messy, heavy close-out. Not the one.

The only real standout in this whole outlook comes later on. On Sunday afternoon, July 19th, we get a bit of magic. The swell is only 3ft, but it’s a long-period 18-second SSE groundswell, and the combined energy is 1578 – that’s strong. The wind is a gentle 15 km/h cross-shore from the NNW, so it’s clean with just a slight chop. This is the best wave on offer, and it’s still a marginal call (score 3/10). For a spot that’s exposed to SW swell, this SSE direction is a bit off, but the long period will wrap in nicely. It’s fairly consistent here, but it breaks rarely, so when it does, you want to be on it. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

After that, it’s back to the same story: poor conditions and cross-shore wind through the rest of the forecast. There’s a bit of a gap from July 20th onward, with nothing worth recommending. The energy stays weak to moderate, and the wind just won’t ease up.

So, if you’re looking for a paddle, keep your eyes on that Sunday afternoon, July 19th. It’s the pick of a pretty grim bunch. For the rest of the time, honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the strong cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions.

Rusty

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