Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be honest with you, looking at the 16-day window for Cape Mendocino, it’s a tough stretch. The water is sitting at 51°F which is a solid 5°F colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be wanting a thick wetsuit and booties right from the start.

We’re kicking off with a blank run. The first few days are a write-off. Tuesday the 14th through to Wednesday the 15th have nothing but poor surf conditions with a moderate cross-shore breeze chopping things up. The swell is tiny—around 2ft to 3ft—and the wave energy is weak (280 to 406). It’s not worth paddling out for.

There’s a bit of a tease on Thursday the 16th morning. The swell is still small at 2ft, but the period jumps to 19 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and the energy picks up to moderate (622). It’s marginal, but there might be a rare clean wave if you’re desperate. The wind is still cross, though, so it’s not the best.

The most interesting window comes on Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th. Friday morning the swell bumps up to 7ft from the NW with a short period of 8 seconds, and the energy is strong (1244). It’s a bit of a messy beast though—cross-shore winds at 16 mph and only a marginal call. That’s expert territory with that size, and the short period means it’ll be a bit fat and crumbly on the beach. Not the cleanest, but there’s some juice.

Saturday the 18th is similar: 6ft to 6ft from the NW, still short period, strong energy (1099 to 1136). The wind lightens a touch on Saturday afternoon to a moderate breeze, but it’s still cross-shore choppy. It’s a “maybe” for experienced surfers, not a standout.

Sunday the 19th is the best bet in the whole forecast—and it’s still nothing to write home about. The morning brings 5ft from the NW with a light onshore breeze, only 6 mph. It’s marginal, but the wind is light, so the surface might be cleaner than the rest of the week. The energy is still moderate (790). Afternoon sees a drop to 3ft from the SW with a long period of 17 seconds, but it’s cross-onshore again. The morning is your best chance for a few fun ones if you’re an intermediate or above.

After that, it’s a long, frustrating slide into the second week. From Monday the 20th onward, the swell drops to knee-high (3ft to 3ft) with moderate energy (415 to 472) and cross-shore winds picking up again. The period is long (16 to 21 seconds), but the swell is too small to do anything with. The last few days of the forecast (24th to 29th) see the energy climb back up to moderate-to-strong (931 to 1143) with very long periods (20 to 24 seconds) but the swell height stays tiny at 2ft to 3ft. It’s a classic case of a big groundswell passing deep but not wrapping cleanly, and the wind stays fresh cross-shore (19 mph), so it’s lumpy and messy. Not worth a look.

Overall, it’s a lean 16 days. The only real chance is Sunday morning the 19th for a few cleanish waves if you’re an expert. Otherwise, leave the boards in the car and go for a walk.

Rusty.

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