Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a long look at the surf forecast for the Cape Mendocino area. We’re staring down a 16-day window, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a tough one. The first solid chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until Sunday, August 23rd, so we’ve got a dry spell of about a week with nothing really worth paddling out for.

The whole period is dominated by persistent cross-shore and cross-onshore winds, mostly from the north and northwest, with speeds between 9 and 19 mph. That’s going to keep the surface lumpy and choppy, even when there’s a little bit of swell. The water temperature on August 16th is 54°, which is a full 4° colder than normal for this time of year, so it’s much colder than usual.

The first real event to look at is on Sunday, August 23rd. A new swell from the northwest pushes in with a height of 7 ft and a short period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is strong—971—but the wind is still a cross-shore 12-16 mph from the north and northwest. The break is Cape Mendocino, an advanced spot that’s exposed and fairly consistent. The swell direction is northwest, which is not the optimum southwest, so it’s not the best angle. The conditions are called marginal, and with that size, it’s getting into the too-big-for-beginners range. Honestly, with the short period and the messy wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, Monday, August 24th, the swell drops to 5 ft from the northwest, still with a short 8-second period. The wind swings to a light southwest at 6 mph, but it’s cross-on. The energy drops to 683. It’s still marginal. The morning might be the least terrible option, but it’s not a standout.

The rest of the window, from August 25th right through to August 31st, is a wasteland of poor surf conditions. Swell heights hover around 1 ft to 3 ft, with periods occasionally getting long (16-18 seconds) from the southwest, but the wind never lets up—always cross or cross-on, and often fresh. The combined energy is weak to moderate, never cracking three digits. Nothing here is worth a second look.

So, to sum it up: the only window that even has a pulse is the weekend of August 23rd-24th, and even then, it’s marginal. Don’t get your hopes up. The best you can say is that the northwest swell on the 23rd has some grunt, but the wind and the short period kill it. For a reliable spot like Cape Mendocino, this is a long, frustrating stretch. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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