Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for the Cape Mendocino stretch. We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, so don’t be in a rush to grab your board just yet.

Right now, the water temp is sitting at about 57°, which is just a touch cooler than the long-term average for this time of year. Nothing crazy, but pack a good hooded wetsuit if you’re heading out.

The first solid sniff of anything worthwhile isn’t until Saturday, September 5th. Up until then, we’ve got a solid week of messy, cross-shore winds and small, choppy swell. From Sunday the 23rd through to Friday the 4th of September, it’s a write-off. The wind is mostly from the north or northwest, blowing straight across the waves, and the swell is tiny—hovering around 2 ft to 3 ft. The energy is weak to moderate (in the 270 to 654 range). It’s just not worth the paddle.

Now, the standout. The morning of Saturday, September 5th. That’s your window. We’ve got a 4 ft SSW swell rolling in with a period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and it’s packing punch with a combined energy of 1073. That’s strong wave energy. The real kicker? The wind turns glassy. Yes, you heard me, glassy. The classic Cape Mendocino break is exposed to the SW, and this swell direction is right in its wheelhouse. The water will be clean, the waves will have shape, and that longer period will mean longer lulls between sets, making it easier to get out the back. This is a solid call for experienced surfers—the swell is under 5 ft, so it’s manageable for a confident intermediate, but the quality will be there.

The afternoon of the 5th holds up okay, but the wind shifts to a light cross-shore, so it’s not as perfect. The morning is the moment.

The following morning, Sunday the 6th, is still fun with a 3 ft SSW swell and light cross-onshore winds, but it’s not the same glassy gem. Then things get interesting again on Sunday afternoon. The swell jumps to 6 ft from the NW with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a big bump in size, but it’s a short-period swell, and the wind is cross-shore again. The wave energy is massive (1826), but the conditions are messy. And with the swell over 5 ft, it’s shifting into expert territory, especially with that cross-shore wind making it lumpy.

Monday the 7th sees a 7 ft NW swell, but again, it’s a cross-shore wind and not the cleanest setup. That kind of size and wind at a beach break can get sloppy. It might be more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle crowd.

So, bottom line: if you’ve got a window, the morning of Saturday, September 5th at Cape Mendocino is the best on offer. Glassy conditions, a nice long-period SSW swell, and clean lines. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty.

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