Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s size up what’s happening at Cape Mendocino for the next couple of weeks.

First thing you’ll notice is the water is running way colder than usual. We’re talking about a water temp of 51°, which is 5° colder than the long-term average for this time of year. That’s a solid reminder to zip up that steamer before you paddle out.

Right now, through Sunday the 12th and into Monday the 13th, it’s a miss. We’ve got some swell in the water—around 6ft to 5ft from the NW—but it’s being hammered by a cross-shore wind at 16 mph. The surf is just a mess of cross-chop. Combined swell energy is moderate at 863, but the quality is zero.

Monday afternoon and Tuesday the 14th see a weird shift. The swell drops right off to 2ft, but we get a 13-second period from the SSW, and then a tiny 1ft pulse with an 18-second period from the SW. Those are long-period groundswells, which hints at some energy deep down, but at these tiny heights it’s just not going to break properly for a paddle surfer. The energy is weak (239 and 277). Still, cross winds are ruining any potential.

Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th is a flat, messy stretch of nothing. The swell stays below 3ft with periods all over the place, and we have a fresh cross-shore breeze at 19-22 mph kicking up a lumpy surface. The combined energy pushes up to moderate levels (738 on Friday morning), but with those winds, it’s a total no-go for a clean wave.

Now, there’s a little flash of hope on Saturday, July 18th. It’s not a classic, but it’s your best window in this whole run. The morning is marginal with a 3ft WNW swell and a cross wind still, but by afternoon the wind drops to a whisper—just 3 mph from the SSW, light cross-shore. The swell drops a touch to 3ft from the SW with a sweet 18-second period. Combined energy climbs to a solid 736. That light wind means the surface could clean right up. For a dedicated soul on a log or a longboard, that afternoon session might just have a few glassy, lined-up waves. Don’t go expecting barrels; it’s small and clean.

After that, from Sunday the 19th all the way through to Monday the 27th of July, it’s grim reading. The swell stays between 2ft and 4ft, but the cross-shore wind just won’t quit. It’s blowing 12 to 22 mph from the north and northwest for days on end. The combined energy gets moderate to strong (up to 816 on the 25th), but the wind state is consistently “moderate cross-shore” or “fresh cross-shore” with lumpy chop. There are a couple of marginal days (like the 20th and 24th), but with onshore or cross-onshore light winds and tiny swell, it’s more of a hopeful check than a proper session.

Honestly, this is a pretty blank run for Cape Mendocino. The north winds just have a stranglehold on the place for the entire second week. Saturday afternoon the 18th is the one standout, and even then, it’s a low-stakes, small-wave clean-up. Beyond that, you’re better off finding a different hobby for a fortnight. If the wind ever swings offshore, those long-period groundswells in the middle of the run could turn it on, but as it stands, the chop and the cold water are winning.

Stay warm, and don't hold your breath.

- Rusty

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