Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for the Cape Mendocino area is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of what I’d call “leave the board in the car” weather, with persistent cross-shore winds and messy conditions. Don’t get your hopes up too early.

We kick things off with a bit of a wait. The first surf on offer is Friday, July 10th, but it's not worth paddling out. We’re looking at a 3ft SSW swell with a period of 15 seconds – that long period groundswell has some energy (671 on the energy scale), but with a cross-shore wind of 15 mph from the NNW, it’s going to be choppy and bumpy. The water is a chilly 51°, which is 5° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a lot colder than usual. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” and that’s the story for the next week and a half. Friday afternoon, Saturday, Sunday – it’s the same sad song: more cross-shore, more chop, and swell heights up to 6ft on Sunday but with short period (8-10 seconds) meaning weak, crumbly waves. The combined energy tops out around 843 Sunday morning but it’s still messy.

We go through the entire week following with the same pattern. Cross-shore winds every day, mostly from the N or NNW at 15 to 20 mph, keeping the surface lumpy. Swells drop down to tiny 1ft to 2ft through the middle of the week, with periods all over the place but still poor conditions. This is a real dry spell.

Now, there is a standout that peeks its head up a week from now – Friday, July 17th, in the morning. We get a pulse of swell from the NW at 7ft, period around 8 seconds, and the energy jumps way up to 1469 – that’s strong. The wind is a lighter cross-onshore from the NW at only 9 mph, which is the gentlest breeze we’ve seen. This is the best chance in the whole outlook, but only for experts. At 7ft with a short period, it’s going to be powerful and dumping hard – definitely not for beginners. The wind is still cross-onshore though, so don’t expect glassy perfection. The wave comment rates it as “marginal surf forecast” but relative to everything else, this is the one to circle. The rest of that day, and the following days, it’s right back to the same old cross-shore chop with smaller swells.

So here’s the bottom line: you’ve got a big gap of poor to no surf from now until July 17th. That Friday morning is your only real shot at something worth a look, and even then it’s expert-only and not perfect. For the rest, it’s a waiting game. With how consistent the wind is being, it’s one of those blank runs that just happens around here sometimes. Forecasts can change, but for now, don’t rush out.

Stay patient.
Rusty

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