Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Imperial Version

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking at Cape Mendocino. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag for the next couple of weeks, so we’ll have to pick our moments. The water is 51° right now, which is a whopping 6° colder than usual for this time of year – that’s not just a little chilly, that’s a full-on wetsuit and hood situation. Don’t be fooled by the summer dates.

We kick off the window on Monday, July 20th. The morning isn’t much to write home about – a 6ft NW windswell with a short, weak 8-second period and a moderate wave energy (792). The wind is light and onshore, so it’s gonna be a bit lumpy. However, the afternoon is where it gets interesting. The wind goes completely *glass* – dead calm. A 3ft SW groundswell rolls in with a very long 16-second period, and the energy jumps to a solid moderate level (909). That’s the standout of the whole forecast. The water is glassy, the swell is clean, and it’s a proper long-period groundswell that will wrap into the point. This is the best it’s going to get. Expect clean, lined-up waves but long waits between sets. Keep in mind this spot is for advanced surfers, and it can get crowded sometimes.

Tuesday the 21st sees the swell drop off to 2ft and 3ft with a long period, but the wind is cross or cross-on from the NW, so it’s not as clean. The energy is still moderate (611 and 441), but the quality isn’t there. Wednesday the 22nd offers a brief glimmer in the afternoon with a 3ft S swell (10 seconds) and a glassy wind again, but the energy is lower (237). It’s rideable, but nothing special.

From Thursday the 23rd right through to the end of the first week and into the second week, the pattern is dominated by fresh to strong northerly winds. Cross-shore chop becomes the norm. The swell sticks around in the 2ft to 4ft range, mostly from the SSW, with periods from 14 to 24 seconds. The energy gets very strong, peaking at 1582 on Saturday the 25th. But with a moderate to fresh north wind blowing 12-19 mph cross-shore, the surface is going to be a mess of lumpy chop. It’s a classic case of plenty of energy but terrible conditions. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, that onshore cross-chop makes it look more like a kite surfing session than a paddle surfing one.

The final week, from July 29th through August 4th, is pretty poor. The swell drops, the energy weakens down to a low 132, and the wind stays relentless from the north. It’s just a week of poor surf conditions with small, choppy waves. Not worth the drive.

So, to wrap it up: the one true standout is Monday afternoon, July 20th. A glassy, long-period groundswell at 3ft from the SW. That’s your window. Everything else requires a lot of patience and a low expectation. The long-range stuff looks promising in size but disappointing in wind.

Stay stoked, stay warm.
Rusty

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