Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be real with you: the next couple of weeks at Cape Mendocino are looking pretty damn lean. The swell is gonna be small and the wind is mostly going to have that cross-shore chop on it, making things messy. We’re looking at a long stretch of days where you’ll be better off doing something else, and I’ll walk you through the whole 16-day window as it stands.

The first week is basically a write-off for any decent waves. From Monday the 10th through to Friday the 14th, we’ve got nothing but tiny surf – we’re talking 1ft to 2ft – with a consistent cross-shore breeze that’s going to leave the surface lumpy. The swell energy is weak to moderate at best, sitting around 183 to 360 (combined energy). There’s a bit of a longer period groundswell in the mix, 14 to 19 seconds, but with these tiny heights, it’s just not doing anything. It’s all poor surf conditions, so don’t get your hopes up.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th sees a slight bump in size, up to a clean 3ft, but the wind remains that annoying cross-shore. The energy picks up into the moderate range – we’re looking at values around 550 to 660 (combined energy) – but the conditions are still marginal at best. The tide might be doing something weird, but with the wind as it is, it’s still not worth paddling out for more than a grovel. The 17th is more of the same, with 3ft and a *slight* improvement in wind, but it’s still cross-shore.

Then we hit another flat spell from the 18th to the 19th, with the swell dropping back down to 2ft to 3ft. The energy is still moderate, but the quality is poor. The 19th does see a change in direction to a short-period WNW, but at 9 seconds and less than 3ft, it’s not going to save the day.

The 20th is the first day that starts to look interesting. The swell jumps to 5ft, but it’s a short-period WNW (10 seconds) and the wind is still cross-shore. That’s a lot of energy – 749 (combined energy) – but it’s not going to be pretty. This is more of a bump than a proper swell, and it’s still in the marginal category.

The real standout in this whole period is the afternoon of Friday the 21st. The wind finally drops out, turning glassy. The swell is a modest 3ft from the WNW, but with that clean surface, it’s going to be the best surf of the entire run. It’s not big, but it will be clean and fun. The energy is moderate at 315 (combined energy). This is your window.

After that, it’s back to the grind. The 22nd has a small 2ft in the morning before a bump to 5ft in the afternoon, but that’s a short-period NW with onshore wind, so it’s messy. The 23rd drops back down to 1ft to 2ft, and the 24th and 25th are stuck in the 2ft range with cross-shore winds. The long-range stuff from the 23rd on is promising-sounding with a 19-second period, but there’s no size to push it.

So, if you’re waiting for a proper day, you’re going to be waiting a while. The only real highlight is that glassy session on the afternoon of Friday the 21st. It’s not going to be big, but it will be clean. For the rest, it’s a long stretch of small, choppy, cross-shore junk. If you’re a beginner, some of those 3ft to 5ft days might be okay, but the wind will make it tricky. Experts will be bored.

I’ll be keeping an eye on it, but for now, the forecast says we’re in for a dry spell. Keep the board waxed, and wait for that Friday afternoon window.

Rusty.

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