Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at the next couple of weeks for Cape Mendocino. To be straight with you, this is a tough stretch. The forecast is dominated by a persistent, strong northerly wind regime that’s going to keep things messy, and the swell windows are just not lining up. We’re looking at a long, dry spell before anything even gets remotely interesting.

The Overall Pattern

Right now and for the foreseeable future, it’s all about the fresh to strong northerly winds. These cross-shore winds are going to tear up the surface, leaving us with a lumpy, cross-chop mess. The water temp is sitting at 55°F, which is about 2°F cooler than what we'd normally expect for this time of year. It’s a bit nippy, but not freakishly cold.

We’re entering a period of very small, weak swells that won't be worth paddling for. The combined energy readings are low, and the wave comments are all "poor surf conditions" or "marginal." This is going to be a frustrating stretch for anyone looking for a proper wave.

Thursday, 30th July & Friday, 31st July

Thursday morning and afternoon offer a small 3ft to 3ft SSW swell, but with a solid 19 mph cross-shore wind, it's game over. The surface is going to be a washing machine with a combined energy of 744 (moderate) and 699 (moderate), but it’s all for nothing. Friday is very similar, with a 3ft to 5ft mix of SSW and NW swells, still hampered by moderate cross-shore breeze. We’re looking at "marginal" conditions all day.

Saturday, 1st August through Monday, 10th August

This is the big gap. From Saturday through Monday the 10th, it’s a complete write-off. We’re talking ten days of tiny swell (1ft to 2ft) and relentless cross-shore winds. The combined energy drops to weak levels, often under 150, and the wave comments are universally "poor surf conditions." The only slight change is a brief moment on Wednesday the 5th where the wind switches to a light 3 mph onshore, but with a tiny 1ft swell, it’s a flat, blown-out nothing burger. Just save your energy and don't even bother.

Tuesday, 11th August

Finally, something changes, but it’s not good news for everyone. A solid NW swell pushes in, hitting 7ft on Tuesday morning, with a combined energy of 1179 (strong). This is a big, powerful swell, but it’s short-period (8 seconds) which means it’s going to be a bit of a wall of whitewater. The wind is still a strong cross-shore, so the surface will be messy. The wave comment says "marginal." This is strictly for the experts only. The big size and onshore wind will make it a chaotic, dangerous mess for anyone else. For the average surfer, this setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday, 12th August through Friday, 14th August

The rest of the week is a letdown. The big swell fades quickly, and we’re back to small, messy SSW swells. The wind doesn't let up, staying fresh and cross-shore. The energy remains moderate, but the quality is just not there. The wave comment remains "poor" or "marginal" at best.

The Standout (Such as it is)

The only real standout in the whole 16-day window is on Tuesday, 11th August. The morning could offer some powerful, albeit raw, waves for experienced surfers who don't mind a side-wind chop. The size is there (7ft), but the conditions are far from perfect. It’s a last resort, not a destination.

Stay patient, folks. This is a rough patch. The forecasts can always change, but right now, it’s looking like a long wait.

Rusty.

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