Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's coming up for Cape Mendocino. We've got a bit of a slow start before things potentially kick off, but there's a window in there that could be worth the wait.

Right off the bat, Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off. The water's sitting at a chilly 53°, a full 5° colder than average for this time of year. That's a serious drop, so you'll be wanting a thick suit and booties if you're even thinking about it.

We kick off the surf period on Thursday the 3rd. The swell is from the WNW at 6 ft but it's not the best quality. It's a bit jumbled with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind is blowing straight onshore at 6 mph. The wave energy is moderate (1151), but it's messy. Thursday afternoon cleans up a little, same wind but the swell bumps to 7 ft. Honestly, it's all marginal.

Friday the 4th is where we see some potential. Morning has a solid 7 ft NW swell with a 10-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the SSW at 9 mph. The energy is ramping up (1601). It's still a bit of a mixed bag, but there will be some fun, punchy waves out there. The afternoon drops off in size quickly though.

The standout here is Saturday the 5th. Yeah, it's smaller at 3 ft, but that SSW swell is packing some serious 16-second period groundswell. This is that long-period energy that really wraps in and offers clean, lined-up walls. The energy is still moderate to strong (1206). With a light NNW cross-shore at 9-12 mph, it'll be clean with only a slight chop. This is a proper point-break day. That long-period swell will be a bit straight at the beach breaks, but at Cape Mendocino itself, which is exposed to the SW, it should be dialed in. Crowds are possible here, so get out early.

Sunday the 6th through to Wednesday the 10th is a real struggle. We're looking at days of poor conditions, with scores dropping off a cliff. The wind picks up, the swell mixes up from the SSE and S, and the energy drops. Not worth paddling out.

Then, around Thursday the 10th afternoon, we see a spike of 8 ft from the S, but it's a short-period 7-second windswell with a 15 mph cross-shore. The energy is strong (1092), but that's a lot of bump and chop for not much reward. This one's for the kite-surfers, not the paddle crew.

The second week gets a bit more promising but less certain. Around Monday the 14th, we see a NW swell build back in. The morning has 5 ft at 13 seconds with a moderate cross-shore from the N. The energy is strong (1035). Tuesday the 15th holds similar but a bit smaller. The wind stays a problem though, consistently from the N at 12-15 mph, keeping it lumpy.

After that, from Wednesday the 16th onward, the wind really cranks up from the N at 18-22 mph, with the swell building to over 7 ft. That's expert territory with the size, but the wind will make it a messy, choppy beast. Not a good look for a clean wave.

So, for the best bet, get on it Friday the 4th for size, or Saturday the 5th for that sweet, long-period groundswell and clean conditions. That's your window.

Rusty, out.

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