Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, mate, it’s a pretty grim start. The first recommendation doesn’t come around until Saturday the 18th, and even then, it’s pretty marginal. The beginning of the period is a write-off. We’ve got a solid week of poor surf conditions with messy, cross-shore winds and tiny, weak swell. The water is way colder than it should be for this time of year – a full 5°F colder than average – so you’ll want a thick wetsuit if you’re even thinking about getting in.

The real standout, the only one that gets my heart rate up, is Cape Mendocino on Saturday the 18th. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. We’re talking a solid 7 ft swell from the NW, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined swell energy is strong (1148), so there’s some grunt behind it. The morning is a bit messy with a cross-onshore wind, but the afternoon cleans up to a cross-shore wind. The wave comment says “marginal,” but compared to the flatness before it, this is the one to circle. It’s definitely an advanced spot, and with the size, it’s not for beginners. The swell direction is NW, which is what this spot needs.

Sunday the 19th offers a bit of relief. The swell drops right back to 3 ft, but we get a beautiful, light offshore wind from the WNW in the morning. That’s glassy, clean conditions. The period jumps to a very long 15 seconds, which is a classic groundswell. This size and period will make for some nice, lined-up waves, but the energy is only moderate (725). It’s a better paddle-out with the long gaps between sets, and if you can find a bank, it’ll be a fun, clean session.

After that, the surf drops off again for the rest of the first week and into the second week. It’s a long stretch of small, weak, and messy surf. The wind stays cross or cross-shore for days, and the ocean looks pretty average.

The next flicker of life shows up around the 25th and 26th of July. We start seeing some bigger, longer-period swell from the SW/S. On Saturday the 25th, the afternoon sees a 3 ft swell from the SSW with a very long period of 21 seconds and strong combined energy (1457). The wind is cross-shore, which is okay, but it’s a long way out. The 26th has a similar story with a 4 ft swell from the SW and a long period of 20 seconds, with even stronger energy (1586). These are promising, but it’s a long-range call, and the wind is still a bit on the strong side. If the wind lays down, those days could be absolute rippers for the points and reefs, but don’t book the time off just yet.

So, if you’re waiting for the best of the window, it’s Saturday the 18th for the most size, or Sunday the 19th for the cleanest, most user-friendly conditions. The rest of the time, you’re looking at a lot of flat spells.

Rusty.

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