Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, checking in from the remote Cape Mendocino zone.

Look, the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a handful of promising windows, but there’s a long stretch in the middle where the wind just won't play nice, and at the very end we might be swimming in way too much water. Let’s break it down.

We kick things off on Friday, August 21st, with some marginal, knee-high swell. It’s mostly a non-starter with the wind on it, but you can see the potential is there. The real glimmer in this first week shows up on Monday, August 24th. The afternoon session is the standout for this entire first half of the forecast. Cape Mendocino has a clean, glassy 5ft NNW swell rolling in. The combined wave energy is a solid 593 (moderate). That’s chest-high, clean, and absolutely worth a paddle. The morning is a close second with 5ft NW swell but a slight cross-onshore breeze.

Then, just when it gets good, it gets ugly. From Tuesday, August 25th, all the way through Monday, September 1st, we are looking at a massive dry spell. The swell drops, and we get hammered by moderate to fresh cross-shore winds – mostly from the north at 12 to 18 mph. The water temp is about average for the time of year. There are a few stray pulses of long-period swell in there, but the wind just ruins the surface. You’ll see a little bump on Sunday, August 30th, but honestly, the conditions are poor. It’s a long gap of nearly a week with no true green lights.

Now, for the second week, things get heavy but tricky. On Tuesday, September 1st, the afternoon shows a jump to 5ft NW swell with a period of 11 seconds. The energy ramps up to 853 (moderate to strong), but the cross-wind is back. Then we hit the big one.

Wednesday, September 2nd, and Thursday, September 3rd, Cape Mendocino is looking at a massive 10ft NW swell. The combined energy is over 2500, which is very, very strong. The file says the wind is favorable, but at 10ft with a 12-second period, this is for experts only. That’s well over the 8ft mark. It could be a phenomenal, powerful day for someone with a big-wave gun and nerves of steel, but it will wash over everyone else.

The final chance for a clean one comes on Friday, September 4th. The afternoon session offers a glassy 3ft SSW swell from a long 17-second period. The energy is 420 (moderate). It’s not big, but it will be smooth and lined up. This is your consolation prize if you missed the Monday of the first week.

Overall, the clear winner is Monday afternoon, August 24th, at Cape Mendocino. It’s the only day that combines a decent sized swell with glassy conditions. The big 10ft swell on the 2nd and 3rd of September is a big-wave-only spectacle, not a day for the average surfer.

Rusty.

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