Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the line for this stretch of coast.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week is a dud. We're looking at a run of days from Sunday the 16th all the way through to Saturday the 22nd with just nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly a messy cross-shore, and everything is labelled as poor or marginal. It's a flat spell, plain and simple. Don't bother checking the buoys, just use the time to fix your dings and sort your wax.

Now, things start to get a bit more interesting heading into the following week. The standout window, and pretty much the only real chance for a wave, lands on Sunday the 23rd. Cape Mendocino picks up a 7 ft swell from the NW, but here's the kicker – that period is only 8 seconds. That's short-period wind swell, so it'll be a bit of a messy, bumpy affair on the surface. The combined energy is in the moderate range, hitting 900, so there's plenty of water moving around. The water itself is much colder than usual for this time of year, sitting at just 54°F, which is a solid 4°F colder than average.

Because the swell is over 5 ft, this isn't really a beginner's day. And while it's not over 8 ft, the short period and cross-onshore winds from the WNW will chop it up. For a cape like this, a 7 ft NW wind swell with a cross-onshore breeze... honestly, this set-up looks more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle guys. It's going to be bumpy and hard to get a clean line. The wind shifts to a cross-shore from the South in the afternoon, but the quality is still just marginal.

Monday the 24th sees the swell dropping off to 6 ft and then 5 ft, still from the NW with that same short 8-second period. The wind stays cross-onshore, so it's more of the same – choppy and average. You'd be fighting it more than enjoying it.

After that little pulse, we sink back into a prolonged period of small, weak, and wind-affected surf from Tuesday the 25th right through to Monday the 31st. The swell drops to under 3 ft, often below 3 ft, and the wind is a persistent cross-shore around 16 mph. It's just not worth the effort. The second week is a write-off for anything decent.

So, to sum it up: the first eight days are a total bust. Your one and only chance to get wet is Sunday the 23rd, but don't expect perfection. It's a short-period, wind-affected NW swell better suited to kites than paddles. The rest of the forecast is a sad story of flatness and cross-shore chop.

Stay patient, and check back closer to the time. Things can always change.

Rusty.

Read more