Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for any decent surf. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing really happening. The first real chance of anything resembling a wave that’s worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until August 11th, and even then it’s just a whisper. We’re talking about a solid week of straight-up poor conditions before that. From August 1st all the way through to the morning of August 11th, it’s a dead zone, with nothing but cross-shore winds and junk. That’s a tough run.

Now, let’s talk about the only day that even gets a nod of approval. On the morning of August 11th, we’ve got a little pulse of long-period swell coming in from the SW at 1 ft, but with a period of 19 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, which means it’ll have some energy behind it, but it’s prone to closing out on a beach break and might be better suited for a point or reef. The wind is light from the NW at 6 mph, which is a light cross-onshore breeze, so it’s not going to be glassy but it’s not a total washout either. The combined energy is 218 (moderate), but it’s described as marginal. Honestly, it’s not a standout, it’s just the best of a bad bunch. The afternoon of the 11th is a bit better, with a bit more energy (285, moderate) and a light cross-shore breeze, but the swell is still small at 2 ft.

The real potential, and I mean the *only* potential in this whole outlook, is the morning of August 15th. That’s a Saturday. We’re looking at a 4 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, which is a classic long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a solid 1113 (strong), so there’s some real grunt behind it. The wind is light from the NNW at 6 mph, which is a light cross-onshore breeze – that’s the best wind we’ll see for any of these days. But it’s still listed as marginal, likely due to tide or the fact that a long-period swell this size can be tricky at a beach break. If you’re an experienced surfer who knows Cape Mendocino, keep an eye on this one, but it’s far from a sure thing this far out. The swell is 4 ft, which is fine for most surfers, but not for beginners.

The rest of the window, all the way through August 16th, is just more of the same: cross-shore winds, messy chop, and small, weak swell. The water temperature is about 53°F, which is much colder than normal for this time of year, so bring the thickest wetsuit you’ve got.

So, to sum it up: there’s nothing really worth getting excited about until the second week of August. The morning of August 15th is the only real glimmer, but it’s a long way off and the forecast confidence is low. It’s a tough outlook for Cape Mendocino.

Rusty.

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