Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one for the next couple of weeks. Cape Mendocino is the only spot on the radar, and honestly, the waiting game is real. We’re starting with nothing, and it’s a long, frustrating gap before anything even remotely worthwhile shows up.

For the first week, from Wednesday, the 29th of July, through the following Tuesday, the 11th of August, it’s a write-off. The wind is hammering out of the north and north-northwest, all cross-shore, between 16 mph and 25 mph, just ruining any chance of a workable surface. Swell heights are tiny, mostly under 3 ft – a lot of 1 ft dribble – and the combined energy is weak, stuck in the hundreds (108 to 994). It’s all poor surf conditions, with a nasty cross-chop. You’re better off finding something else to do.

Wednesday, the 5th of August, teases us with a big spike: 10 ft of swell from the northwest, with a short period of 9 seconds, and a massive combined energy of 1427. But that’s a problem. That’s too big for this break, and the wind is still a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-surfing one. Steer clear.

The only real glimmer of hope comes right at the end of the forecast. Wednesday morning, the 12th of August, we see a slight improvement. Swell from the west-northwest at 3 ft, with a 15-second period, and combined energy of 769. The wind drops to a light breeze, 6 mph from the west-northwest, but it’s cross-onshore, leaving small wind ripples. It’s still only marginal, with a score of 2 out of 10. Thursday the 13th of August is similar: 3 ft from the south-southwest (16-second period, 754 energy) and later from the southwest (16-second period, 682 energy), with light winds around 6 mph. These are the best on offer, but calling them a standout feels generous. The long-period swell (16 seconds) means clean, energy-rich lines, but at a beach break like Cape Mendocino, it might run a bit straight. Still, with light winds, it’s the closest we get to a surfable morning.

The water temperature is sitting at 56°F, which is about average for the time of year, with a -0.5° anomaly. Nothing unusual there.

Cape Mendocino is a fairly consistent, exposed spot when it works, and it’s for advanced surfers. The optimum swell is from the southwest, but we’re seeing a mix of west-northwest and south-southwest. It’s not aligning perfectly. Crowds are possible sometimes, so you might have a few mates out, but that’s not a worry with this quality.

So, there’s nothing for the first week and a half. The second week flirts with a few marginal mornings, but don’t get your hopes up. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, this is a blank run that feels normal for the area. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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