Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what Cape Mendocino has got cookin’ for the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The models are painting a pretty bleak picture for most of the run, with only a couple of narrow windows that might just scratch the itch.

We’ve got nearly two weeks coming up where it’s gonna be a real grind. The swell energy is there, but the quality is just not cooperating. For the most part, we’re dealing with messy, cross-shore winds that are gonna chop up whatever waves are showing. Don’t get too excited about the open ocean numbers because what’s hitting the beach isn't gonna be pretty.

Let’s start with the first real chance we get, around Monday the 20th. We’ve got a couple of small windows. Monday morning sees a clean little 2ft swell, 16 seconds period from the SW with a light offshore breeze from the WSW (10 km/h). The water temperature is a bone-chilling 51°F, which is over 5°F colder than usual for this time of year. That’s a serious anomaly – you’ll be needing a thick steamer and maybe some booties you forgot you owned. The combined swell energy is moderate (421). It’s tiny, but the conditions could be glassy for a session. Later Monday afternoon, a short-period 6ft NW windswell (8 seconds) rolls in with a clean 5 km/h offshore wind. The energy jumps up (925) but the period is short, so the waves will be a bit crumbly and fat. It’s a classic trade-off: size for shape.

Now, the second week is where we see the biggest swells, but don't get your hopes up for clean conditions. From Saturday the 25th into the following week, we’re looking at solid long-period groundswell in the 3ft to 4ft range, with periods stretching from 19 up to 21 seconds. The swell direction is a mix of SSW and SW, which is decent for the cape. However, the wind is a persistent and strong cross-shore from the N and NNW, blowing 25 to 30 km/h. The combined swell energy during this period is strong (1269 to 1653). But that strong cross-wind will chop it up, making for lumpy, difficult conditions. It's not ideal for a paddle surfer. For the more adventurous, with that much wind and solid swell, it could get interesting for a kite session.

The only real standout that might be worth paddling out for is the brief window on Monday afternoon the 20th. The 6ft from the NW is decent, the wind is glassy at just 5 km/h, and the break is exposed enough. It's the best quality we're going to see. For the rest, you’re best off waiting or finding something else to do.

Bottom line: a long, lean period ahead. Check Monday the 20th, otherwise, this cape is mostly a no-go.

Rusty.

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