Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. This forecast for the Cape Mendocino area is a bit of a grind, to be honest. We’ve got a window that starts with a whole lot of "meh" and “marginal.” The pattern is dominated by a moderate cross-shore breeze that just won’t quit, and the swell energy is present but never really lines up right for clean, punchy surf. The combined energy figures are mostly in the moderate range (like 431 and 577), but a cross-shore wind is the enemy of a good face, and the wave comments are pretty grim. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting around 56°.

We kick things off on Monday the 7th with a 3ft SSE swell at 13 seconds, but that north wind at 15 mph crosses it up badly. The wave comment is “poor surf conditions,” so that’s a no-go. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are a similar story – small swell, cross-shore winds, and the descriptions are “marginal” at best. The swell direction shifts to the SW, which is closer to the optimum, but the wind is still a problem.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th sees the swell size jump up to 5ft with a NW direction, but the period drops to a short, weak 7 to 10 seconds. That’s a lot of bumpy, wind-affected chop, and the combined energy still reads as moderate. The wave comments are still “poor.” This is the kind of messy, short-period, cross-shore stuff that’s more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session. The size is getting into the territory where it’s too big for beginners but not clean enough for a good time.

There’s a slight glimmer of hope later on. The best on offer, and I mean the only standout that’s worth a mention, is looking like the morning of Friday the 18th. We’ll have a 2ft SW swell with a long, beautiful 19-second period. The combined energy is a solid 657, and the wind is a light, cross-shore breeze from the NW. That’s clear skies and a light breeze. That’s the kind of window where the long-period groundswell will wrap in and hold up, making for some clean, lined-up waves at a spot like Cape Mendocino, which is exposed to the SW. It’s a more promising setup, but it’s a week and a half away, so treat it as a promising but not certain bet.

The following Saturday morning the 19th actually has a 3 mph onshore wind, which is almost glassy. That’s a major positive for a clean face, and the 2ft SW swell at 18 seconds is still quality. The crowd situation at Cape Mendocino is listed as “sometimes,” so you might actually have some company if it cleans up.

Short version: the next 10 days are a write-off. The best chance for a decent surf is the morning of the 18th, and maybe the 19th if the wind holds. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

Read more