Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s your man Rusty here, and we’re taking a hard look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you—this ain't looking like a classic run of waves. The start of the period has some proper small stuff, and it takes a while before anything really gets going.

Right off the bat, for Thursday the 2nd and Friday the 3rd of July, we’re looking at tiny 2 ft SSW swell with a super long 14 to 15 second period, but the wind is cross and the waver energy is weak (around 250). This is pure frustration—nothing worth paddling out for. The water temperature is a seriously chilly 50°F, which is a massive 6°F colder than you'd expect for this time of year, so that’s a major heads-up if you’re heading in.

We then hit a few days with bigger swell but poor quality. Saturday the 4th sees a jump in size to 7 ft to 7 ft from the NW, but the period is short at 8 seconds and the energy is moderate to strong (676 to 843). The wind stays cross at 19 mph, and the conditions are lumpy. It’s a real mess.

Sunday the 5th drops right back down to tiny 2 ft to 3 ft SSW swells with a lovely 18-second period, which would be great if there was any power, but the energy is weak to moderate (393 to 566) and the cross wind ruins it.

Monday the 6th is the first time the forecast starts to give us a little hope. A NW swell builds to 8 ft in the morning and 7 ft in the afternoon, with strong energy (1388 and 1346). But the period is still short at 8 seconds and the wind is still cross. The surf is marginal. The size means it’s a bit much for beginners—over 8 ft is more for experts. It’s a lumpy cross-chop, and this set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, if I’m honest.

Into Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th, we see a very long-period SSW groundswell creep in, with periods of 17 to 19 seconds and swell heights ranging from 3 ft to 5 ft. The energy is strong (over 800), but the wind remains cross. That long period means the sets will be clean and punchy at a point break or reef, but at a beach break it’ll break straight. Still, the marginal tag sticks until Thursday the 9th, when a 6 ft NW swell (9-second period) rolls in with strong energy (1220). It’s still cross-wind and lumpy though.

After that, it’s back to poor surf for ten days straight, from Friday the 10th all the way through to Friday the 17th of July. We’re talking tiny 2 ft to 5 ft swells from various directions, with mixed energy. Nothing really stands out.

The best of a bad lot? If you’re desperate, the Cape Mendocino break itself offers the only real window of slightly cleaner waves. On the morning of Monday the 6th of July, you’ve got a 8 ft NW swell with strong energy (1388). It’s a big swell, so it’s advanced-only, and the wind is cross, not offshore. But if you’re an experienced surfer who can handle lumpy, strong conditions, that’s your shot. That’s the only day where the size and energy really come together, even if it’s not glassy.

Take the later calls with a grain of salt, but for now, Cape Mendocino is mostly a quiet stretch. A blank run like this isn’t unusual for the area, so forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Stay sharp.
Rusty.

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