Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s happening for the Cape Mendocino area over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, this is a pretty bleak run. The whole 16-day window is looking like a total write-off. From Monday the 13th right through the end of the month, the surf is either flat or just plain messy. The wind is the main culprit – a constant moderate to fresh cross-shore breeze out of the north-northwest, which is a nightmare for keeping it clean. The swell direction is all over the place, but the wind is the killer. You’re looking at a solid two weeks of poor surf conditions, with only a couple of days that even rate as marginal. The water temp feels about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Let’s get into the details. The first real hint of anything surfable is a couple of days out. On Thursday the 16th, the swell starts to build, but it’s still a mess. Thursday morning brings a 7 ft swell from the northwest, but the period is a short, weak 8 seconds, and the wind is a cross-shore at 16 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 969, but the conditions are still listed as poor. By Thursday afternoon, the swell pushes a bit more energy (1024), but again, it’s cross-shore wind and lumpy. Not worth getting wet for.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day period is on Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd. On Tuesday afternoon, the swell is a solid 8 ft from the northwest, but the period is still only 9 seconds. The wind actually drops to a gentle breeze at 9 mph, which is a lot better than we’ve seen. The combined energy is strong at 1160. This is a big, powerful swell, but it’s a beach break, and with that short period, it’s going to be a nasty, dumpy closeout. This is expert-only territory. The wind is cross-onshore, but light, so there will be a few rideable lumps if you’re brave. Wednesday morning keeps the swell around 7 ft, 9 seconds, with the wind dropping to only 3 mph from the northwest. That’s basically glassy. The combined energy is still strong at 951. This is the best window you’ll get. The swell is big, but the light wind will make it look better than it is. It’s still a short-period, wind-affected swell, but for a local like Cape Mendocino, you take what you can get. The rest of the forecast is a complete washout – more cross-shore wind, dropping swell, and poor conditions through to the end of the month.

So, to wrap it up: if you’re an expert with a big board and a thick skin, point your car at Cape Mendocino for the afternoon of the 21st or the morning of the 22nd. For everyone else, maybe bring a kiteboard, because the wind is reliable even if the waves aren’t.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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