Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Cape Mendocino are mostly a grind, but there’s a little window of something worth paddling out for if you’re patient and picky.

Right now, Saturday the 22nd into the weekend, the ocean’s got some long-period energy rolling in – a 1 ft to 2 ft SW groundswell with periods around 18 to 19 seconds – but the wind is a nasty cross-shore at 15 mph, ruining any chance of clean waves. The combined energy is weak (263 on Saturday), and it’s labelled poor. Nothing to get excited about. The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll want a thick suit.

Sunday afternoon sees a shift: a 5 ft NW swell with a short, weak 7-second period (combined energy 497) but still cross-shore winds. The onshore wind Monday keeps things choppy. Honestly, it’s not until Tuesday morning, August 25th, that we get a sniff of something better. A 3 ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period and light onshore wind at 6 mph makes for marginal but cleaner conditions. Combined energy is moderate at 452. It’s not firing, but it’s the best early week option.

The standout moment comes on Saturday, August 29th. A 4 ft SSW groundswell, 18-second period, builds through the morning (combined energy 815) and peaks in the afternoon at 1049 – that’s moderate to strong energy. The wind is cross-shore at 15–18 mph though, so it’s lumpy. This is the pick of the forecast, but it’s still only marginal. You’ll need to pick your bank and tide. Cape Mendocino is exposed to SW swell, and that matches the direction – a point in its favour. It’s an advanced break, fairly consistent, and crowds can show up sometimes, so be ready for company.

From August 30th onward, it’s a long stretch of poor surf with cross-shore winds and weak to moderate energy. There’s a brief pulse on Wednesday, September 2nd afternoon and Thursday, September 3rd morning, with a 8 ft NW swell and 8–9 second period (combined energy 1094–1512). That’s moderate to strong energy, but the short period and cross-shore wind mean messy, lumpy conditions. This is expert territory at 8 ft and not clean enough to recommend unless you’re desperate for a challenge. The direction (NW) is not optimum for Cape Mendocino, which prefers SW.

After that, the second week fades into more cross-shore winds and smaller SSW swells. Sunday, September 6th offers a 3 ft SSW groundswell with a lighter cross-shore breeze (6 mph), combined energy 610, and marginal scores. It’s a last gasp but not a standout.

Overall, this is a quiet run for Cape Mendocino. The best bet is Saturday, August 29th afternoon, despite the lumpy cross-shore wind – the swell energy is there, and the direction lines up. For the rest, you’re waiting for a shift in the wind. Don’t hold your breath, but forecasts change.

Rusty.

Read more