Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what Cape Mendocino has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long run of mostly messy, wind-affected surf with very few windows of opportunity. The forecast is pretty grim for a while, but there is a tiny glimmer of hope way down the line if you’re patient.

The first week is a write-off, honestly. From Thursday the 10th through to Wednesday the 16th, it’s a constant battle with moderate to fresh cross-shore winds and choppy conditions. The swell is a mix of small, weak SW groundswell with some short-period NW windswell in there, but the energy is weak to moderate at best (between 199 and 684 combined energy). These aren’t the kind of waves you paddle out for, especially with that persistent northerly wind messing everything up. A few sessions on the 10th and 12th are “marginal,” but that’s about as generous as I can be. For a wave that can handle a good SW groundswell, the conditions just aren't lining up.

Now, hold on to your board, because things look slightly interesting on Thursday the 17th. We get a pocket of glassy conditions in the afternoon with a light southerly breeze. The swell is a small 2 ft from the SSW, but with a period of 16 seconds, it’s proper groundswell. The combined energy reads a moderate 385. It won't be big, but with the wind going totally glassy, Cape Mendocino could offer a clean, lined-up wave. This is the only real standout in the whole outlook. It’s not a blower, but for a dedicated surfer who can work a small, clean groundswell, that Thursday afternoon window is the best you’ll get. Crowds are listed as "sometimes", so you might have some company, but with conditions that finicky, most people will miss it.

After that brief reprieve, it’s back to the same story. From Friday the 18th right through to the end of the period on Friday the 25th, we’re dominated by strong, fresh, and near-gale force northerly winds, creating lumpy, messy cross-chop. The swells are mostly small, and the energy is weak. A few readings show some decent long-period SW groundswell energy in the background (up to 537 combined on the 18th morning, and 685 on the 20th), but the wind is just too atrocious to make anything of it. It’s a real shame because the raw energy is there, but it’s getting torn to pieces. This setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for long stretches of the second week. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

So to sum it up: suffer through the first week, keep your eyes peeled for that glassy window on Thursday the 17th afternoon – that’s your best bet. After that, the forecast gets promising in terms of swell energy, but the wind is a beast that won’t let up. It’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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