Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Cape Mendocino over the next couple of weeks.

First off, the water is running much colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 51°F with a big -5°F anomaly. That's a full wetsuit and booties kind of deal, no question.

The honest truth is we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first few days are looking pretty grim with poor conditions and choppy, cross-shore winds. Don't bother paddling out on Thursday the 16th or Friday the 17th—it’s not worth it. The energy is there, but the wind is just ruining it.

We finally get a window of hope on Monday the 20th. The afternoon session is the standout of the entire forecast. The wind drops right off to glassy conditions, and we’ve got a clean 4 ft swell rolling in from the south with a long 15-second period. That's a proper groundswell. The combined energy is solid (874), and with that glassy surface, Cape Mendocino is going to be looking clean and lined up. This is your best bet for a genuine surf, and it’s a fairly consistent spot, so it won't be a total lottery.

After that, the middle of the week dips back into marginal territory with onshore breezes and smaller, weaker swells. The wind stays cross or cross-on for a while, and the wave quality just isn't there.

Now, looking into the second week, things get interesting again but with a big caveat. From Friday the 24th onwards, we see a massive spike in the combined energy, with readings hitting 1472 and even 1720. That’s some serious juice in the water. The swell size hovers around 4 ft to 4 ft, but the period is very long, between 18 and 24 seconds. This is a very long-period groundswell from the SW. At Cape Mendocino, a point break, this kind of long-period energy is ideal—it’ll wrap in and produce some powerful, well-shaped waves. The downside is the wind is a moderate cross-shore, which will put a bit of a texture on the face. It’s not the clean glass of the 20th, but for raw power, it’s promising. This is one for the experienced crew; the sets will be well-spaced and strong.

Beyond that, the last few days of the month look like a write-off with strong, fresh cross-shore winds and poor surf quality. The run of poor conditions at the end is a bit of a bummer, but it’s not unusual for this area when the winds pipe up.

So, to sum it up: Keep your eyes on Monday afternoon, the 20th, for the cleanest, most user-friendly waves. And for the big-wave hunters, the long-period groundswell from Friday the 24th through the 27th offers some serious power, even if it’s a bit wind-affected. The setup is more interesting for paddle surfing than kite surfing given the swell direction, but the wind could make it fun for the kite crew on some of the windier days.

Rusty.

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