Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. We’ve got a long 16-day window, but honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch for a proper paddle. The overall pattern is one of persistent cross-shore winds and messy conditions, meaning we’re waiting a long time for anything decent.

Right now, and for the next week, Cape Mendocino is copping a lot of wind. The water is sitting at 51°F, which is a solid 5°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a very unusual chill, so you’ll want a thick, good-quality wetsuit. The first few days are a write-off with poor surf and moderate cross-shore breezes. The swell is small and weak, with wave energy in the 200s to 300s (moderate wave energy), but the wind just ruins it.

We finally see a glimmer on Thursday, July 16th, with a very marginal call. The swell is tiny at 2ft, but the period is a long 19 seconds from the WNW. That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s got no size to work with, and the wind is a gentle cross-onshore, leaving it a bit choppy. Wave energy (648) is moderate. It’s not a goer.

Friday, July 17th, is similar. Still poor, but the morning has a slightly better wave energy reading (972) and a 17-second period. The onshore wind is still a problem, though. We’re looking at a lot of waiting.

The only standout in the whole two weeks comes on Tuesday, July 21st. The morning brings a pulse of swell hitting 7ft from the NW with a short period of 9 seconds. That’s a lot of windswell. The wave energy is strong (1020). The problem? The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, making it choppy and the conditions are still described as “poor.” This is for experts only, as it’s over the 5ft mark. The short period means it’ll be a bit fat and messy, not the clean, lined-up stuff we dream of. Beginners, sit this one out.

Wednesday, July 22nd, offers a marginal chance in the morning with 6ft NW swell (10-second period) and cross-shore wind. Wave energy is moderate (846). It’s again for experienced surfers, but the wind isn’t doing us any favours.

After that, it’s a long grind of poor surf and lumpy, fresh breezes right through to the end of the month. There are no real clean windows. This is a stretch where it’s looking more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle crew, given the persistent wind and the mostly beach-break setup, though there are no other break types here to compare.

Hang in there, but don’t rush to the water’s edge.

Rusty.

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