Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for the Cape Mendocino region. Honestly, looking at this 16-day window, it's a tough stretch. We've got a long gap of poor conditions to start with, and the run of marginal surf that follows has its own issues. It’s going to take some patience.

The early part of the outlook, from Thursday the 27th of August through to the end of the month, is pretty grim. The wind is a persistent cross-shore, mostly a moderate to fresh breeze from the north, which is putting a real chop on the surface. The swell is small, under 4ft, and what is there is coming from the SSE or SSW with long periods of 13 to 18 seconds, which is a groundswell. While that period has good energy, the combined swell energy readings (between 387 and 979) are only moderate, and the cross-chop makes it a total mess. You're looking at a solid gap of nearly a week with nothing worth jumping in for.

Things get a little more interesting, but still far from perfect, as we move into the first week of September. The morning of Tuesday the 1st of September offers a rare moment of relief. We get a light offshore wind from the west at just 3.1 mph, which could clean things up for a bit. The swell is a small 2.3ft from the SSW with a period of 13 seconds. The combined energy is weak (339), so it's not going to have much push, but that glassy window is the best we’ll see. Later that afternoon and into Wednesday, the wind swings cross-shore again and the swell gets a bit more mixed up with a short-period NW windswell. Then on Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th of September, we see the combined energy jump into the four-digit range (1180 to 1302), signalling strong wave energy. The swell height builds to around 3 to 4.6ft, still from the SSW with long periods (13-18 seconds). This should mean better-shaped waves, but the wind remains a moderate cross-shore from the north, keeping the surface lumpy.

The standout, or the best of a challenging bunch, would be the Thursday the 3rd morning session. It’s not a clean winner, but the swell is a solid 4.6ft from the NW with a period of 10 seconds, which is a better direction for Cape Mendocino as it's an exposed spot. The combined energy hits 1180, telling you there's some real power behind it. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore from the north at 12.4 mph, so it won't be perfect, but it’s the most promising combination of size and direction in the whole forecast. Just keep your expectations in check.

Later in the second week, around the 9th and 10th of September, we get more long-period SSW groundswell, but the wind is once again a persistent cross-shore or onshore. The combination of size, wind, and water temp doesn't come together for a solid call. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year at 56.1°.

On the 11th of September, we see a jump in swell height to 8.2ft from the NW with a short period of 8 seconds. That’s a lot of close-out potential. That size is only for experienced surfers, and with strong cross-shore winds creating a lumpy chop, it’s probably more interesting for the kite crew than anyone on a paddle board.

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