Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about Cape Mendocino. Rusty here, looking at the next couple of weeks for you.

Honestly, the outlook is a bit of a grind for most of the period. The first few days are a write-off with messy cross-shore winds and poor to marginal surf. The water is running a very unusual 51°F which is much colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick hood and gloves right from the start.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on the afternoon of July 21st. That Tuesday afternoon looks like our first standout. The wind goes glassy, and even though the swell is a modest 3ft from the SSW, that combined wave energy is a solid 539 and the periods are a long 16 seconds. That’s clean, lined-up groundswell. It won’t be big, but it’ll be the best shape we’ve seen all week.

After that, we go through another dry spell of messy, cross-shore conditions and lumpy chop. The wind is a pain, mostly from the N or NNW, keeping things choppy and frustrating.

We do get a big spike in energy around the 24th and 25th of July. The swell jumps up, with a massive combined energy of 2225 (Saturday morning the 25th) and 4ft from the SW with a 21-second period. That’s serious, long-period groundswell. But the catch is a strong cross-shore wind from the N at 15 mph, which will be lumpy and messy. For a spot this exposed, those long-period SW swells are better suited for a point or reef, but at a beach break like this, the long period can make it close out. It’s for experts only if you attempt it.

The real standout, and the one to circle on your calendar, is the afternoon of July 31st. That’s a Friday. The wind finally goes glassy from the W, and we’ve got a solid 7ft of NW swell. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s windswell, but the energy is strong at 1008. The report says it’s “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – that’s the best call in the whole run. At 7ft, it’s too much for beginners, but for the crew who know what they’re doing, that’s the session. The crowds are only “sometimes” a problem, so you might get a few out, but with that glassy top and solid size, it’s worth the paddle.

The rest of the run into the end of July and early August is just more of the same: cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions. Nothing else really stands out.

Keep your expectations low for the first week, and lock in that Friday afternoon on the 31st. It’s the only real window of quality.

Rusty.

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