Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for Cape Mendocino. It’s a bit of a rough patch, to be honest. The water is running much colder than normal for this time of year, about 52.3°, which is a solid 4.1° below average – you’ll feel that chill on the paddle out.

The forecast starts off pretty quiet. We’ve got a small, short-period swell on Thursday afternoon, July 23rd, with little energy. It’s not really doing much. Friday, July 24th, shows a bump in period, with a 2ft to 3ft swell from the SSW, but it's still crossed up with a light breeze and the wave energy is moderate (789) in the morning and building to strong (1126) by the afternoon. Still, the conditions are a bit messy.

The best of a fairly average lot looks like Saturday morning, July 25th. The wind goes light and offshore from the WNW, which is a big positive for clean faces. The swell is 4ft from the SSW with a solid 21-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is strong (1498), but a period that long can make the waves at a beach setup like this break a bit straight and fat. It’s a Saturday, and crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so you might have some company. Still, this is the standout window.

From Sunday onward, the wind swings around to the north and northwest, picking up and staying onshore or cross-shore. The swell sticks around for a few days, but the quality drops fast. By Wednesday, July 30th, the swell direction shifts to the NW with a very short period of 8 seconds, and the wind is honking at 19 mph. The waves are about 7.5ft, which is too big for beginners and just a choppy, lumpy mess for everyone else. That kind of setup with a strong cross-shore wind is more interesting for the kite surfers than for paddle surfing.

After that, the forecast flatlines. From Friday, July 31st, through to the end of the window, the conditions are poor. The swell drops off, and the wind stays relentless. There are some long gaps of 8 or 9 days in a row here with no real recommendations. It’s a pretty blank run for the area.

So, if you’re going to get wet, make it Saturday morning, July 25th, for the cleanest conditions and the best chance of a decent wave. After that, I’d be doing something else with my time.

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