Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, fire up the old wax comb and let's have a good look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks. This is your local surf reporter Rusty, and honestly, we're looking at a bit of a mixed bag with a few promising nuggets buried in there if you're patient.

Right off the bat, the first bit of surf we can seriously talk about doesn't really show up until Thursday the 3rd. Before that, it’s a write-off. The first couple of days are pretty much a dud for any decent paddle. We’ve got a fair gap there with no real recommendations.

Now, when Thursday the 3rd rolls around, we’ve got some energy building at Cape Mendocino. This is an advanced spot, and it’s fairly consistent, but it’s also an exposed one, so it catches whatever’s out there. The water temp is sitting at 53° and that’s a solid 5° colder than normal for this time of year – so that’s a notable chill, bring a thick steamer. The swell energy is moderate, coming in at 1284, with a WNW swell at 7 ft. The period is around 10 seconds, so more of a wind swell mix. It’s not clean though, we’ve got a light cross-onshore wind that’s putting little ripples on it, so it’s a bit messy. That’s as good as it gets for that day, and it’s marginal.

Friday the 4th is the standout of this whole run. Again at Cape Mendocino, we’ve got a bit more size holding at 7 ft from the NW with an 11-second period – that’s getting into groundswell territory, which means better shape and more energy. The combined swell energy jumps up to a strong 1772. The wind switches to a light cross-shore, which is a massive positive, and that’s going to keep the surface clean and make for some decent lines. It’s still an advanced wave because of the size and power, and crowds are possible out there. For the experienced crew, this Friday morning session is the best on offer. By the afternoon, the wind shifts, and it gets a bit more onshore.

After that little window, we hit a long, frustrating stretch. From Saturday the 5th all the way through the second week, the quality just drops off. The swell sticks around but the wind is a constant problem, mostly cross-shore from the north, and the period gets long – there's a run of 15 to 17 second swells in there, which at a beach setup like this can make things fat and straight. The combined swell energy stays moderate, but the conditions are consistently poor or marginal. The wave heights drop under 3 ft for days on end, and the comments go from “poor” to “marginal” at best. There’s nothing worth driving for.

We do see a bit of a pulse again around Monday the 14th, with the swell pushing back up to 5 ft from the NW with a 12-second period. The combined energy hits 900, which is moderate. But again, the wind is cross-shore and the conditions are still only marginal. It’s a tease, but not a proper score.

Further out, around Tuesday the 15th, we get another 7 ft pulse from the NW, but the period drops to 8 seconds, which is short and weak, and the wind is onshore. Not a great combo.

In the very end of the window, on Thursday the 17th, we see a tiny 1 ft swell with a very long 23-second period from the SW. That’s a ghost pulse – barely any energy (247) and not worth paddling out for.

So, the honest truth for this stretch? The only real shout is Friday morning, September 4th at Cape Mendocino. That’s your best bet. Get out early for that clean, 7 ft NW swell with light cross-shore wind. It won’t last long, but it’ll be the highlight. Everything else is a waiting game or better suited for the kites with the constant side wind.

Keep your eyes on the charts though – it tends not to stay poor for too long around here.

- Rusty

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