Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Cape Mendocino has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tricky outlook. We’ve got a real mixed bag, with only one real standout window that’s worth circling on your calendar. The rest is a whole lot of messy cross-shore wind and chop that’ll have you wishing you stayed home. There are long gaps where I can’t in good conscience recommend paddling out.

The first bit of action worth talking about is on Saturday, the 12th of September. Cape Mendocino is the only break on the radar, and it’s actually showing some real promise that afternoon. We’ve got a clean 3ft SW groundswell rolling in with a long 14-second period, pushing some solid moderate wave energy (590). The wind is glassy out of the NW at just 3 mph, which is about as good as it gets for surface conditions. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a solid 3° colder than average for this time of year – so you’ll want a good hood and gloves. The offshore wind direction (E) is the sweet spot here, and this SW swell is right in the groove for this exposed break. It’s fairly consistent, but keep in mind crowds are possible here sometimes. If you can get out Saturday afternoon, that’s your best bet by a long shot.

Now, Sunday the 13th takes a turn. The swell bumps up a bit to 4ft from the WNW, but the period drops to a weak 8 seconds and the wind swings cross-onshore. It’s not going to be pretty. That trend continues through Monday the 14th, with the swell climbing to 7ft NW, but it’s paired with a strong 19 mph cross-wind that’ll turn the surface into a lumpy mess. Tuesday the 15th through Wednesday the 16th see the swell drop right off to a tiny 2ft. Even though it’s a long-period SW groundswell (16-17 seconds), the energy is weak (around 192-256) and the wind stays cross or cross-shore. Not worth the drive.

We go through the rest of that week and into the next with nothing but marginal or poor conditions. There’s a brief flicker on Thursday the 17th with 5ft NW windswell, but it’s short period (8 sec) and the wind is still cross. The energy is moderate (644-661), but it’s not clean. That’s about the best you’ll see until...

We jump all the way to Monday the 21st of September. That morning, the swell jumps back up to 7ft from the NW with a short 8-second period and strong energy (1088). The wind is cross at 16 mph, so it’s a powerful but messy setup. For experienced surfers only at that size, and the cross-shore wind won't do it any favours. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

After that, it’s back to small, weak, and windy conditions through to the end of the outlook. A little bump in period appears around the 23rd and 24th with 4ft NW groundswell at 11-12 seconds, but the wind is still cross or cross-onshore. The energy is moderate (525-686), but without clean wind, it’s just another one to skip.

Bottom line: Saturday the 12th afternoon is the real standout. After that, it’s a long, frustrating stretch of onshore slop and cross-chop. If you’re a kite surfer, some of those bigger, windier days on the 14th and 21st might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a tough run.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on those forecasts.

Rusty.

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