Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s on offer down at the Cape.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, we’re looking at a pretty grim stretch. There are long gaps where there’s just nothing rideable, and when swell does show up, the wind is usually tearing it apart. For the most part, the coast is going to be a choppy, cross-shore mess – staying out of the water is the smarter call most days. The standout window, if you can call it that, is a brief window later on the 24th, but it comes with a massive caveat.

Right now, from Sunday the 13th straight through until Wednesday the 16th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got moderate to fresh cross-shore winds daily, with swell heights either too small or badly wind-affected. The combined wave energy is moderate at best, hitting around 676 on Sunday but with a messy 9-second period and a 15 mph cross-breeze, it’s just a lumpy line of whitewater. No point even suiting up.

We get a tiny glimmer on Thursday the 17th morning. Cape Mendocino will see a 6 ft NW swell, period only 8 seconds, energy at 725, so it's a moderate push. Wind is a gentle cross-shore from the south at 9 mph, which cleans it up a bit, but it’s still just marginal. By the afternoon the wind swings light WSW, making it a cross-onshore, and the quality drops again. Not the day to call in sick for.

From Friday the 18th through Tuesday the 22nd, it’s back to the doldrums with weak, long-period leftovers in the 1 ft to 3 ft range, but again, cross-shore winds just ruin any chance of a micro-session. The energy stays mostly moderate, nothing to get excited about.

Now, the best chance, and it’s a serious maybe, lands on Wednesday the 23rd morning. Cape Mendocino picks up a solid 8 ft swell from the NW with a 9-second period, combined energy surging to a strong 1200. The wind is light from the south at 9 mph, making it a cross-shore – that could clean it up nicely. But here’s the problem: at 8 ft, this is expert territory. Too big for anyone but the crew who know what they’re doing on a ledge. It’s a short-period swell, so it’s going to dump hard and fast.

But the real standout? I’m eyeing up Thursday the 24th afternoon. That’s the one. We see a 10 ft NW swell, 9-second period, energy hitting a very strong 1380. The wind is moderate cross-shore from the south at 15 mph. Normally that wind is trouble, but for this size, and with the right tide, it might just hold shape. The forecast even calls it "wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." That’s the warning. This is a beast of a day – expert only. If you’re not on a gun and confident in heavy water, stay on the beach. For the brave few, it could be the session of the month. Friday the 25th still has a solid 8 ft NW swell and lighter WNW cross-onshore wind, promising some big, walled-up waves, but you’re fighting the wind angle.

After that, Saturday the 26th and into the following week, the wind gets up again with fresh northerlies, the swell drops, and we’re back to watching the horizon. A few pulses in the 3 ft to 4 ft range show up but with 22 mph cross-shore winds, it’s just a messy, lumpy ocean. Not worth the paddle.

So to wrap it up: the next two weeks are pretty bleak overall, with a ton of no-go days. Your only window worth looking at is that Wednesday the 23rd morning for the brave, and Thursday the 24th afternoon for the truly experienced crew. If you're a beginner, give Cape Mendocino a miss until the winds calm down and the swell drops below 5 ft. Otherwise, sit this one out.

Stay safe, Rusty.

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