Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you about the stretch ahead here at Cape Mendocino. Honest truth? The next two weeks are a tough watch. We’re looking at a long, frustrating run of middling to poor conditions, mostly thanks to a relentless cross-shore wind that just won’t let up.

Right now, it’s Tuesday the 7th of July, and the swell is all over the place. We start the morning with a lumpy 5 ft NW swell, but it’s got a messy cross-shore wind from the NNW at 16 mph. The water is running at a very unusual 51°, which is a whopping 5° colder than normal for this time of year—that’s a serious anomaly, so you’ll want a thick suit. The wave energy is there (1302), but it’s just not coming together. By the afternoon, it drops off completely—3 ft SSW groundswell with a long 19-second period, but that same cross-wind chops it up. Zero score there.

That pretty much sets the tone. Wednesday the 8th through Saturday the 11th is a brutal stretch. We’ve got a consistent 16-19 mph cross-shore wind from the north, pinching anything that tries to form. Swell sizes bounce between 3 ft and 4 ft, but the wind keeps it ugly. This is a classic case of “better to stay home.”

We get a slight bump on Sunday the 12th, with a 6 ft NW swell pushing through, but the period is short (10 seconds) and it’s still cross-shore. By Monday the 13th, the wind is still strong and the period drops to a dismal 6-9 seconds. The energy readings dip below 600, telling you it’s weak and disorganised. This goes on and on—through to Thursday the 17th, it’s the same story: moderate to fresh cross-shore winds and poor surf.

Now, if you look way out to the end of the forecast, there’s a tiny glimmer. On Saturday the 18th of July, things finally calm down. The morning is still a bit messy with a light cross-onshore, but the afternoon is the standout of the entire outlook. The wind goes glass—dead calm, from the NW at only 3 mph. The swell is a modest 3 ft from the WNW, with a nice long 16-second period. That’s a groundswell with real shape. The energy is moderate (723), and the conditions are described as glassy. For an exposed spot like Cape Mendocino that usually gets hammered by wind, this is the moment. The water temp will still be cold, but if you can get out there on that Saturday afternoon, you’ll find clean, lined-up waves. It won’t be big, but it will be beautiful.

The following days, Sunday the 19th and beyond, look like a return to onshore slop, so that Saturday is your one real window.

Overall, this is a lean period. A lot of blown-out days with nothing to chase. If you’ve got the patience, the only session worth a wet suit is that glassy Saturday afternoon.

- Rusty

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