Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Cape Mendocino has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, it's looking like a tough run. We've got a long stretch ahead with hardly anything worth getting excited about, so temper those expectations.

Right off the bat, there's nothing happening. The first few days are a write-off. We're looking at a gap of several days with no real surf to recommend. The first hint of anything that's even worth a mention comes on Sunday, July 5th, but it's a mixed bag. Sunday morning brings a 5 ft NW swell, but it's short-period at 8 seconds, and the wind is a cross-onshore from the NNW at 19 mph. It's choppy and not looking great. The afternoon cleans up a bit with clearer skies and a lighter cross-shore wind, but the swell drops to 3 ft from the SSW with a very long 18-second period. There's moderate wave energy (556) but the comment is "marginal." For an exposed spot like Cape Mendocino, that long-period SSW groundswell might wrap in okay, but the size is tiny.

Monday the 6th sees a jump in size with a 7 ft NW swell in the morning, but again, it's short-period (8 seconds) and cross-onshore. The wave energy is strong (1206) but the quality is poor. This NW swell is bumpy and messy. As we move through the week, it's more of the same: constant cross-shore winds from the N and NNW, mostly fresh breezes (16-19 mph) that are going to leave the surface lumpy and chopped up. The swell direction keeps flipping between small, long-period SSW pulses and short-period NW windswell, but the wind just won't play ball.

Now, the water temperature is a big talking point here. It's 49°F, which is a massive 7° colder than normal for this time of year. That is very unusual and seriously cold. You'll want a thick hood and boots, no question.

The best of a bad lot looks like Tuesday morning, July 7th. We've got a 5 ft NW swell with a slightly longer 11-second period, and the wind is a cross-shore from the NNW at 12 mph. The combined energy is strong (1349). It's not clean, but it's the most size and push we see all week before the wind gets even stronger. For an advanced spot that's "fairly consistent," this might offer some lumpy, powerful lines for the locals who don't mind the chop.

After that, it's grim. From Wednesday the 8th right through to the end of the forecast on July 19th, it's just day after day of poor surf conditions. The winds are relentless, mostly fresh cross-shore breezes, sometimes gusting 22 mph. Swell sizes hover between 3 ft and 6 ft, but with that wind, it's all mess. The 6 ft NW swell on Wednesday July 15th afternoon has a period of just 7 seconds – that's pure windswell, blown out and ugly. Given the persistent cross-wind and significant swell at times, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the period.

Honestly, there's no standout session here. The whole 16-day window is a struggle. The only day that might produce a few gruntier, albeit rough, waves is the 7th. But it's not one to tell your mates about. For this area, a blank run like this isn't unheard of, and forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it, but for now, I'd be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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