Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, lookin’ at the Cape Mendocino stretch.

So, right off the bat, this is a tough run. We’re lookin’ at a solid stretch of pretty ordinary conditions for the next couple weeks, with just a glimmer of hope way out there at the end. For the first week and a half, the wind is just a constant problem – cross-shore and cross-onshore, blowin’ anywhere from 9 to 19 mph, making a mess of things. The water temp is runnin’ a bit colder than normal for this time of year at 56°, which is a bummer, about 3° below average.

The first real surfable suggestion doesn’t even show up until Monday the 7th, but honestly, it’s a no-go. We’ve got a small 3 ft SSE swell with a 14-second period and moderate cross-shore winds. The wave energy is moderate (691), but the conditions are just too rough with that wind. The whole first week is like that – small swells, messy wind. Wednesday the 9th afternoon shows a 2 ft SW swell with a long 19-second period, which sounds nice, but that moderate cross-wind kills it. You’d be scratchin’ your head wondering why you paddled out.

The weekend of the 13th and 14th, we get a bump in size. Sunday the 13th morning has 6 ft NW swell, and by Monday the 14th morning it’s 7 ft from the NW. But the period drops to 8 seconds – that’s short-period windswell, not much power behind it. The wave energy is strong though (797 to 797), but the wind is still a consistent 16 mph cross-shore. At that size with that wind, it’s a washing machine. This is expert territory anyway at over 8 ft, but the conditions just aren’t there.

We hit a real lull mid-week the 15th and 16th, with tiny 2 ft to 2 ft swells. Nothing doin’.

Now, let’s talk about the one bright spot. Lookin’ way ahead, the 22nd of September (Tuesday) is the standout. We’ve got a 8 ft WNW groundswell with a 13-second period – that’s proper energy. The combined swell energy is very strong (2409). The wind is a light 6 mph cross-shore in the afternoon, which means clean-ish faces. That’s the one to keep an eye on. It’s over 8 ft, so it’s experts only, and it’s a long-period swell, so it might jack up and close out on a beach break, but at a point or reef setup it’ll be firing. Just remember, we’re talkin’ over a week out, so forecasts can change. It’s promising, but not a lock.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, if you’re a beginner, don’t bother. For the experienced crew, your only real hope is that Tuesday the 22nd. The rest of the time, it’s a frustrating mix of onshore junk or small, weak swell. There’s a lot of days with zero recommendations, especially from the 15th to the 19th. It’s a tough forecast.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that 22nd.

Rusty.

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