Cape Mendocino Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what’s coming down the pipe for Cape Mendocino. I’ve got to be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day window that’s mostly a whole lot of nothing for the paddle crew. The water is sitting at about 53° which is a solid 5° colder than usual for this time of year, so that’s a brutal wake-up call right off the bat.

The first real whisper of a surfable wave doesn’t show up until Wednesday, August 5th. Before that, from Monday the 3rd through Tuesday the 4th, it’s just tiny, poor-quality slop with cross-winds messing it up. Not worth even looking at.

So, the standout, and really the only true window of opportunity, is Wednesday, August 5th. The morning brings a pulse of new swell, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’re looking at a 6 ft swell from the NW with a short period of 8 seconds. That’s a lot of windswell energy – the combined energy is moderate at 583 – but it’s going to be junky and a bit messy with the light cross-onshore breeze. Beginners might find it a bit much, and the short period means it’ll be a bit sectiony.

But then, Wednesday afternoon is where it’s at. The wind drops completely – glassy conditions. The swell settles a touch to 6 ft, still from the NW, still with that short 8-second period. That combined energy drops to 511. It’s a short window, but that glassy surface on a 6 ft NW swell is the best we’re going to get. Cape Mendocino is an exposed spot, and when the wind goes glass like that, those walls can actually have some fun little lines. The 8-second period means it’ll be a bit crumbly, but clean. This is the one to try and make.

After that, we slide back into a long, bleak stretch of tiny surf and relentless cross-shore winds. From Thursday the 6th all the way through to Tuesday the 18th of August, the swell stays tiny, never getting above 3 ft. The wind is a constant problem – mostly fresh N or NNW winds in the 12 to 22 mph range, keeping everything chopped up and ugly. The energy levels stay moderate, but the quality is just poor. The 15th and 16th of August see a little bump in energy (up to 896 on the 16th), but it’s still a small, messy 3 ft SSW swell with cross-winds. It’s not worth paddling out for.

Honestly, if you’re a kiter, the 15th and 16th might look interesting with that moderate energy and cross-wind, but for a surfer, this is a two-week park. The window is on Wednesday afternoon, August 5th. Don’t waste it.

Rusty.

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