Third Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, it’s a bit of a quiet start, but there’s a real gem waiting for us down the line if we can hold out. The first week or so is mostly marginal, with some small, long-period groundswell arriving but not really lining up with the winds. The real standout in this whole 16-day window is happening way later, on the 3rd of August.

We kick off on Monday, 20th July, with a small 2ft swell from the southwest, with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 526, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf is just marginal. Not worth getting excited about. Tuesday, 21st July, sees a bit of a drop in energy, but Tuesday afternoon turns glassy with 2ft SW swell – that’s a nice clean window for a few quiet ones. Wednesday, 22nd, and Thursday, 23rd, continue the same pattern: small SW swell, glassy windows in the afternoons, but the energy is fickle and the forecasts are all for marginal surf.

Friday, 24th July, the period jumps up to 24 seconds, which is incredibly long, and the energy picks up to 595 (moderate) in the morning, but it’s cross-onshore. The afternoon sees a big jump in energy to 1063, but again, cross-onshore wind – it’s going to be lumpy and messy. Not clean.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Saturday, 25th July, all the way through to the end of the month, the wind is a real problem. It’s mostly cross-onshore from the NW or NNW, blowing 12 to 19 mph. The swell is there, but it’s poor quality, with the energy still in the 900-1300 range (strong to very strong). The wave comment is “poor surf conditions” almost constantly. This is a stretch where the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We finally get a break on the 2nd of August. Sunday afternoon sees a 7ft NW swell, still cross-onshore and marginal, but the size is starting to get up there.

Now, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for. Monday, 3rd August, is the standout. The morning starts with a 7ft NW swell, a 9-second period, and glassy conditions. The combined energy is 796 (strong). The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the real deal. By Monday afternoon, it gets even better: 8ft NW swell, still glassy, with energy climbing to 1080 (very strong). The wave comment is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s a big call. The optimum swell direction for Third Reef is WNW, and this is coming from NW – close enough to be very good, and with glassy winds, it’s going to be clean and powerful. The water temp is about average for the time of year. This is a wave for the crew who know what they’re doing, as 8ft is getting into expert territory. The 9-second period is on the shorter side, so it won’t be as drawn out as a longer period swell, but it should still offer some punchy, fun waves.

Tuesday, 4th August, the morning drops off a bit with a light cross-shore wind, still 7ft but the quality fades to marginal.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off unless you’re desperate for a small glassy session in the afternoons. The 3rd of August is the absolute highlight. If you can wait, that Monday is going to fire. Don’t get sucked into the windy, choppy junk before it.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more