Third Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, the short version is we’ve got a bit of a flat spell to kick things off, and the next 16 days are looking pretty average. There’s nothing that’s gonna blow your mind. The first real shot at a wave comes on Tuesday the 11th of August, but it’s nothing to get too excited about. We’re looking at Third Reef, a reef break that’s fairly consistent. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is about 1°F cooler than the long-term average, so it’s pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year. No major surprises there.

The first few days are a write-off. Tuesday morning the 11th sees a 5ft swell from the NW, but the wind is a cross-on from the WNW at 9 mph, making it choppy. The combined energy is moderate at 525, but the quality is just marginal. It’s not worth paddling out for. Tuesday afternoon is worse, with a bump to 6ft from the NW but the cross-on wind keeps it messy. Wednesday the 12th is the same story – 6ft to 6ft, cross-on, choppy. Nothing doing.

Thursday morning the 13th is a bit of a tease. We get a 5ft NW swell with a WSW wind at 6 mph that’s offshore, blowing directly onshore from the west. The combined energy is 557. The wind is light, so it might be a little cleaner, but the comment says it’s still marginal. Afternoon goes back to cross-on. Not the one.

Friday the 14th to Monday the 17th of August, we see a real shift. The swell drops right down to 2ft to 4ft, and it’s coming from the SSW. The period jumps up to 15-19 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. That’s a lot of energy for that size, but the combined energy is still moderate, between 463 and 678. The problem is, with that long period and a SSW direction, it’s going to be breaking straight at a beach break if it’s a beach, but this is a reef. The wind is generally light, with a few windows of offshore wind, but the surf is just too small to be any good. The best of this run is probably Saturday morning the 15th, with a 3ft SSW swell, 17-second period, and a light offshore wind from the west. The combined energy is 648. It’s marginal, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far. Still, it’s not a standout.

We then hit a long, flat stretch. From Tuesday the 18th through to Sunday the 23rd of August, the swell is tiny, mostly 1ft to 3ft, with some very long period signals but no real power. The combined energy drops to 214-410. The wind is mostly cross-on or light offshore. It’s just not worth it. There’s a glimmer on Friday morning the 21st – 3ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, and the wind is glassy. The combined energy is 420. The comment says “expect good surf conditions,” but at 3ft, it’s barely a ripple. It’s the cleanest we’ll see, but it’s a beginner wave at best.

The final few days, from Monday the 24th to Wednesday the 26th of August, see a bit of a pulse, but it’s all bad. The wind cranks up to 12-19 mph from the NW, cross-on, making it lumpy and choppy. The swell is 2ft to 2ft from the SW, with long periods, but the combined energy is moderate to low. The surf is poor. Forget it.

So, the standout, if you can call it that, is a tie between the marginal but cleanest conditions on Friday morning the 21st of August, with glassy conditions, or the slightly bigger 4ft SSW swell on Sunday morning the 16th of August, with a light offshore wind. Neither is a true standout by any stretch. The swell just isn’t there, and the wind is rarely in our favour. For a reef break, the long period swells from the SSW are not the optimum direction, which is WNW. It’s a tough run.

Stay patient, and don’t bother rushing out. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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