Third Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long stretch ahead, but the honest truth is this run looks pretty grim for the paddle crew. The whole 16-day window is basically a write-off for decent surf. Gonna be a long, quiet period.

The first real chance of anything worth getting wet for doesn’t pop up until Monday, 3rd of August, and even then it’s only just scraping into the "maybe" category. From now until then? Mostly poor surf with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. Not worth the wax.

Let’s start with the only spot on the cards, Third Reef. This is a reef break, fairly consistent, and it’s best with a swell from the WNW. The water temp is sitting at 60°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

From Monday, 3rd August, things shift from terrible to merely marginal. The mornings are still a bit lumpy, but by Monday afternoon we’re seeing a 8ft swell from the NW with a period of 9 seconds (moderate energy, around 920). The wind drops to a light breeze, so it’s just light cross-onshore with small ripples. It’s still not clean, but it’s the best of a bad lot. Tuesday the 4th is similar: 6ft NW swell, period 10 seconds, winds are light, and the energy is moderate (736-661). Conditions are still only marginal, but the wind is very light, almost glassy at times. That’s about as good as it gets.

The swell builds a bit more towards the end of the first week and into the second. Sunday, 9th August afternoon shows a 7ft NW swell with an 8-second period, and with just a slight air, it’s looking light and clean. Combined energy is strong at 807. This is the closest we get to a stand-out, but it’s still only a marginal call.

Then on Monday, 10th August morning, we get the biggest energy reading of the whole forecast: a 7ft NW swell, period 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 1215. Winds are light from the WNW. That’s the peak of the window in terms of power, but it’s still a short-period swell, so it’s going to be fat and a bit closed out at a reef. Not a classic.

After that, the swell drops off and the wind flirts with an offshore direction on Tuesday, 11th August morning, coming from the WSW. Swell is 5ft from the NW, period 9 seconds. That’s the only time we see actual offshore wind in the whole outlook, but it’s still a marginal situation.

The final week flips back to longer-period south-southwest swells, like on Wednesday, 12th August with a 2ft, 18-second groundswell – that’s a very long period, but it’s tiny. That kind of long period is better for a point or river, but here it’s just a whisper.

Bottom line: If you’re desperate, the best windows are Monday, 3rd August afternoon through Tuesday, 4th August, and again Sunday, 9th August afternoon through Monday, 10th August morning. The winds are lightest then, and the swell has some size. But don’t expect perfection. Crowds are a possibility at Third Reef, so if the wind looks good, it’ll have a few bodies out.

Forget the rest of the days – it’s all cross-onshore chop. If you’ve got a kite, this whole stretch might look more interesting than for a paddle board.

Rusty.

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