Third Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Alright, so we're looking at a pretty grim run of surf for the next couple of weeks. We've got a solid, long-period SSW groundswell rolling in on Friday the 24th, but the wind is a real problem. The energy is there, with a combined swell energy of 1337, but the cross-onshore breeze is just ruining it. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's the only good news.

Let's start with Friday the 24th afternoon. The swell is 3 ft from the SSW with a period of 24 seconds—that's a very long period groundswell. That kind of energy is usually best on a reef, point, or river mouth, but with the wind shifting WNW, it's only going to produce some lumpy, weak shapes. It's a no-go.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are much the same story. The swell fills in a bit, hitting 4 ft, but the wind is a persistent cross-onshore. The water is a bit warmer than usual, but that doesn't help the chop. The combined energy is still high, around 1200-1260, but it's just messy.

From Monday the 27th right through to the end of the first week, we get a solid NW wind pattern setting in. The swell direction slowly shifts towards the NW, but the wind is a consistent cross-onshore, often fresh and lumpy. The break is a reef, so it's exposed, but the wind is just writing it off. The combined energy drops from 1287 down to 751 by Wednesday the 29th.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Thursday the 30th of July through Saturday the 1st of August shows a drop in quality. The swell turns short and choppy, and the wind is still cross-onshore. The combined energy plummets to 352 by Saturday morning. There's a short period swell of 7-8 seconds, and it's just not worth the paddle.

The second week is a real write-off. From Sunday the 2nd of August right through to Wednesday the 5th, the swell gets bigger, hitting 8 ft to 10 ft, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, gusting 19 mph. The period is short (8-10 seconds), so it's just a messy, lumpy, powerful wall of whitewater. The combined energy hits 2331 on Monday the 3rd, but it's horrible. This is one for the experts only, and even then, it's a miserable session. The wind is just too strong.

Now, hold on. There's a glimmer of hope. Thursday the 6th of August morning is still a bit messy with a 6 ft NW swell, but by Thursday afternoon, the wind drops to a glassy, light southerly. The swell is 6 ft from the NW with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is 793. The report says "expect very good surf conditions." That's our standout. The wind is glassy, the swell is a solid size for the reef, and it'll be clean. It's the best on offer by a long shot.

Friday the 7th of August is a step down with a light cross-onshore, but then Saturday the 8th of August morning and afternoon both look promising. The wind is glassy again, the swell is a consistent 5 ft from the NW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is around 523. The report says "expect very good surf conditions" for both sessions. That's a great little window.

So, the real standout is Thursday the 6th of August afternoon and Saturday the 8th of August for the glassy conditions. The rest of the 16 days is a minging, wind-affected mess. If you're patient, you might get a few clean ones on those two days, but otherwise, it's a blank run. The forecast can change, but right now, it's looking pretty bleak.

Rusty.

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