Third Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ for Third Reef (United States). To be straight with ya, this stretch is lookin’ pretty ordinary over the next sixteen days, with no real standout sessions to get fired up about. The water temp’s sittin’ around 59°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothin’ unusual there.

We start off this Friday morning, August 28, with some clouds and a light WNW breeze blowin’ cross-on at 9 mph. Swell’s comin’ from the SSW at 3 feet, with a long period of 16 seconds, but the combined energy is moderate at 525. It’s a groundswell, but that cross-onshore wind’s got it choppy and messy. The waves are small, the tide’s questionable – honestly, it’s a bit of a dud. Afternoon’s no better, same story with poor conditions.

Saturday, August 29, the wind picks up to 19 mph from the NW, fresh and lumpy. Swell height’s 4 feet from the SSW, period 18 seconds, combined energy jumps to 1070 (strong), but that cross-onshore wind just ruins it. Sunday, August 30, is more of the same – clear skies, but cross-onshore WNW at 9 mph, swell 4 feet, period 16 seconds, energy 1394. Still marginal, still choppy. The pattern holds through Monday, August 31, with lighter S winds at 6 mph and a cross shore, swell drops to 3 feet, period 14 seconds, energy 598. Slight improvement in wind, but the surf’s still weak and marginal.

The rest of the first week into early September is a real grind. Tuesday, September 1, has light winds but swell only 2 to 3 feet, and the period drops to 10 seconds – weak energy around 286 to 314. Wednesday and Thursday are similar, with a bit of a bump on Thursday afternoon September 3 – swell hits 5 feet from the NW, period 11 seconds, energy 985. That’s the biggest push so far, but the wind’s light cross-on from the WSW at 3 mph, and it’s still labelled marginal, so nothin’ to write home about.

Friday, September 4, has a bit of potential – swell 3 feet from the SSW, period 17 seconds, energy up to 1127 in the afternoon, with light onshore WSW wind at 3 mph. Again, it’s marginal and the wind’s not helpin’ clean it up. Saturday, September 5, and Sunday, September 6, drift along with 3 feet swell, 14-15 second periods, and light winds, but the combined energy sits around 500-782. Still no clean conditions.

There’s a gap from Monday, September 7 through to Wednesday, September 9, where the surf stays small and messy – swell under 3 feet, periods dropping to 7 or 8 seconds, and cross-onshore winds. The energy’s low (236 to 564). This area’s just not firin’.

Then we get a spike late in the second week. Thursday morning, September 10, sees a 5 feet NW swell with a 12-second period, combined energy of 1498 (strong), but it’s cross-onshore from the NW at 9 mph – so lumpy and poor. Afternoon’s even windier at 16 mph. That swell’s got some size, but the quality’s wrecked. Friday and Saturday, September 11-12, the swell stays around 3 to 6 feet with long periods (13-16 seconds) and energy up to 1475, but the wind’s fresh and cross-onshore again – nothin’ clean.

Look, if you’re keen, the best chance is probably Thursday afternoon, September 4, with that 3 feet SSW groundswell and light wind, or maybe Thursday morning, September 10, if you can handle lumpy 5 feet waves. Neither’s a true standout. The NW swells have long periods, which could work alright on Third Reef (it’s a reef break after all), but the wind never lines up right for clean conditions. Crowds are possible here sometimes, but with this forecast, it might be quiet.

Overall, it’s a bleak outlook – long stretches of poor to marginal surf with cross-onshore winds. If you’re really itchin’, keep an eye on those few days with lighter breeze, but don’t expect much. The setup here is more interesting for kite surfing than paddling, given the strong winds and lumpy seas.

Rusty.

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