No Pass Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into the outlook for No Pass. It’s looking like a tough stretch of swell ahead, with a long wait for anything decent.

Right now, the water temp is sitting right around average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The forecast starts off pretty grim. From Friday morning, July 31st, right through the weekend, we’ve got a building swell from the NW, but the wind is a mess. It’s cross-onshore and choppy, with the combined energy building from 374 up to over 873 by Sunday afternoon. That’s moderate wave energy, but with the wind on it, the surf is just a jumbled-up mess. Saturday morning sees a brief 4ft swell from the NNW, but it’s short-period at 8 seconds and cross-onshore again. Not worth the paddle.

Things get a bit bigger early next week. Monday August 3rd kicks off with a solid 7ft NW swell, but the cross-onshore wind is still there, making it a choppy, poor affair. By Monday afternoon, the swell hits 8ft from the NW, period stretches to 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1089 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind eases a touch to a cross-shore, but it’s still lumpy. The surf report calls it “marginal.” For a more experienced surfer, the size is there, but the wind is just not cooperating.

We finally get a window of opportunity on Tuesday, August 4th. The morning is still messy with light cross-onshore wind, but come Tuesday afternoon, things get interesting. The swell drops to a cleaner 5ft from the NW, but the wind goes glassy. The energy is still moderate at 514, and the surf report says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the standout of the whole 16-day window. If you can get in the water then, it’s the only time you’ll find clean, lined-up waves.

Wednesday, August 5th, has some glassy periods too, but the swell is backing down to 4ft-5ft. It’s a decent option for a longboard or a fun shape, but it’s not the standout like Tuesday.

After that, the swell drops right off. From Thursday, August 6th through the 15th, we’re scraping the barrel with tiny swells, mostly under 3ft, and short-period windswell. There are a few glassy moments on Sunday, August 9th, and Monday, August 10th afternoons, with a clean 2ft-3ft SSW swell, but it’s just small. On Thursday, August 13th afternoon, the wind goes glassy again with a 3ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell. That would be very clean, but the size is tiny. It’s a pretty blank run from the 6th onwards, with only these small, clean windows for the absolute beginner or a longboarder.

Overall, the best on offer is Tuesday afternoon, August 4th. That’s your one chance to score clean, glassy chest-high waves from the NW. The rest of the period is either blown out or too small to bother.

Rusty.

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