El Capitan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your coffee. It’s Rusty here, and we’re looking at the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some windows if you know where to look.

We’re starting off with a bit of a tease at El Capitan (a reef and point setup, so it handles the longer period stuff well). The water is sitting at 70°F, which is a whopping 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, practically tropical feeling. Thursday morning is the standout for the near-term. You’ve got a 3ft swell from the south with a nice 12 second period, but the real magic is the glassy conditions from a light 3 mph northeast wind. The energy is pumping at 488 (moderate) and it’ll be clean as a whistle. Thursday afternoon stays clean with a cross-offshore breeze and still decent energy at 601.

Friday looks promising again, especially the morning. That same long-period groundswell (19 seconds!) is pushing 2ft to 2ft from the SSW. The energy is huge at 612, and with a light cross-off wind, the line-up will be tidy. Just remember, that super long period (19 seconds) can make a beach break tricky, but on a point and reef like El Capitan, it will reel off nicely. It is an advanced wave here and it’s inconsistent, so wait for the sets.

By the weekend, things start to get smaller. Saturday and Sunday still have 3ft to 3ft waves, but the wind turns a little cross-shore and the energy fluctuates. Not terrible, but not the peak of the week. By Monday (31st) and Tuesday (1st of September), it turns pretty ugly with onshore winds and poor conditions. That stretch from Monday afternoon right through to Wednesday (2nd) is basically a write-off.

We then hit a long, flat, marginal run. The middle of the first week in September is all light onshore breezes and weak, short-period slop. There is a tiny blip on the 3rd of September with a bump in swell to 5ft from the SSW, but the wind is cross-onshore, so expect bumpy surface. Not great.

Looking way down the line, the real promise might be late in the second week. On Friday the 11th of September, the afternoon shows a jump in height to 6ft. However, the period is only 6 seconds and the direction shifts to WNW. With a solid 16 mph cross-offshore wind from the northwest, the surface will be clean, but that short period and size (over 5ft, so not for beginners) mean the energy (458) will be weak and lumpy. It might be more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer that afternoon. There’s a similar clean pocket on the 10th with 3ft from the SSW.

Overall, the best on offer is Thursday morning (27th of August). That’s the only true standout: glassy, waist-high swell, clean, and warm water. The Friday morning (28th) is also a strong contender for its incredible groundswell period and clean conditions. The rest of the window looks marginal, so pick your days wisely.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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