Pescaderos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's break down the next couple of weeks for our stretch of coast. It's gonna be a bit of a mixed bag, so let's talk it through.

The water is running real warm for this time of year, like 70° with a big old anomaly of 7° warmer than usual. That's a serious spike, so you can probably leave the thickest suit at home for a while. The word on the street is it's gonna be a waiting game, with small, often weak pulses of swell and a lot of marginal days ahead. But there are a couple of moments that look worth circling on the calendar.

Tuesday afternoon, September 8th kicks things off with the most promising conditions we'll see for a while. We've got a clean 3ft of SSW swell at Pescaderos, with a 13-second period pushing in. The wind is a light cross-off from the W at 3 mph, which will leave the surface glassy. The wave energy is moderate, nothing crazy at 276, but it's the cleanest it's going to be for a bit. This is a good time to get wet if you're a beginner or just want a fun, mellow session.

After that, the week settles into a real grind. From Wednesday September 9th through the weekend, we're looking at small, short-period swell, mostly in the 1ft to 2ft range, with periods dropping below 8 seconds at times. It's going to be weak, with energy readings often below 150 and a lot of cross or cross-on winds. Thursday afternoon the 10th has a clean 2ft with a cross-off breeze, but the period is only 16 seconds so it should be rideable. Still, plenty of these days are going to feel like a whole lot of nothing.

Saturday the 12th sees a slight bump in size, but it's junky. The morning is a cross-shore mess of 3ft that's all over the place, and the afternoon has the size up to 5ft but it's coming from the WNW with a short 6-second period. That's just a jumbled, onshore-boosted mess, not worth your time for a paddle. The energy is still only moderate at 331, so it's not powerful, just messy.

We get a little taste of something on Sunday the 13th with a 4ft WNW swell in the morning, but again, the period is short and the winds are cross. It's a tease. From the 14th to the 22nd, it's a long, drawn-out stretch of small surf, with most days showing 1ft to 2ft and poor to marginal conditions. There will be the odd clean window, like the afternoons of the 18th and 19th, where the wind goes cross-off and the surf is tiny but clean, but it's all a bit of a struggle.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Look ahead to the final day of the forecast window: Wednesday afternoon, September 23rd. That's when the models are showing a real spike. The swell is expected to jump to 6ft from the WNW, and the energy is forecast at a strong 515. The period is short at 6 seconds, which means it will be a raw, powerful wind swell rather than a clean groundswell. With a 9 mph cross-off wind, it might be clean, but at that size with that short a period, it's going to be a handful. This is one for experienced surfers only, and even then, it might be more of a battle than a joy. It's a long way out, so treat it as a promising but uncertain possibility.

For the week in between, there are just no real standouts. It’s a classic long stretch of small, underwhelming surf. The setup looks a bit more interesting for those with a kite, especially if the swell and wind line-up on that Saturday the 12th, than for us paddle surfers. Keep the board waxed for that Tuesday and maybe get ready for the 23rd.

Signing off, Rusty.

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