Pescaderos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ in the water.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn’t one of those weeks where you’re gonna be paddling out with a big grin on your face. Pescaderos is serving up a long stretch of pretty quiet, messy conditions, especially through the first half of this run. The swell is small and the wind, more often than not, is gonna put a bit of a chop on things. You’re looking at a mellow spell.

Sunday morning, July 12th, starts off about as gentle as it gets. We’ve got tiny 2ft swell rolling in from the SSW, and the wind is glassy. The water’s a cool 63°, which is about a degree warmer than average for this time of year, so it feels a little nicer. The combined energy is around (215), which is weak, but man, the surface will be like a mirror. If you’ve got a log and just want to feel the glide, you could have a laugh, but there’s no grunt in the waves. That’s about as good as the opening day gets, because by the afternoon the wind picks up onshore and things go flat.

The rest of the first week is a bit of a washout. Monday and Tuesday see that tiny swell stay in the 1ft to 2ft range, with light cross-shore breezes that just mess up the texture. Wednesday the 15th does see a jump in swell height, hitting 4ft by the morning, but it’s a short-period wind swell from the WNW with only 6 seconds between waves – it’ll be weak and crumbly. By Wednesday afternoon the wind turns clean and cross-offshore, and the swell picks up to 6ft with moderate energy (384). It’s still that short-period stuff, so it’ll be bumpy and a bit fat for a beginner, but the shape might improve for the more experienced.

Thursday the 16th keeps things interesting with a bigger 5ft WNW swell and a solid period bump up to 9 seconds, giving it some push. Combined energy gets up to (434) in the morning, and even higher in the afternoon (627). The wind stays light and cross-shore, so it’s not epic, but it’s rideable. This is the first real window where a decent surfer could find a couple of fun runners, especially if you’re happy with the cross-shore texture.

Then we hit a dry patch. Friday and Saturday the 17th and 18th see the wind swing fully onshore or cross-onshore, and the quality drops out. There’s a pulse of long-period SSE swell arriving Saturday morning (3ft, 15 seconds) with strong energy (632), but it’s coming straight onshore which makes it a bumpy mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than anything for a paddle board.

Sunday the 19th settles back down with 3ft SSE swell and light cross-shore winds, but it’s still marginal. The energy stays moderate (531), but the waves are just not good enough to get excited about.

Now, if you’re patient, there’s a standout window worth marking on your calendar. July 24th (that’s just over a week away, a Friday), Pescaderos sees a solid SSE groundswell. In the morning, we get 4ft at a long 16-second period, and combined energy jumps to a punchy (805). The wind is light and cross-shore, so the surface will be pretty clean. By the afternoon, the swell pushes to 4ft with the same period, and cross-offshore winds from the west at 12 mph will groom it up properly. The energy is strong at (870). This is the pick of the forecast. The long period suits these breaks, and the wind will make for some smooth, tapered waves. It won’t be huge, but it’ll be far and away the best we’ve seen in this run. The crowd factor is listed as “sometimes”, so you might have company, but it won’t be a pack.

After that, it backs off quickly. The 25th still has some 4ft swell but a shorter period, and the 27th sees a return to small 2ft SSW swell. The afternoon of the 27th does get the best overall conditions of the whole period: 2ft SSW swell, 18-second period, gentle cross-offshore wind, and a clean surface. The combined energy is moderate (324), but the long-period will make for some nice, long lines even if the size is small. That’s a fun way to close the forecast.

So, bottom line: don’t bother paddling out until July 24th. That’s the real standout. If you miss it, the afternoon of the 27th is a good consolation prize on a longboard. Everything else is flat, choppy, or just not worth the wetsuit.

Rusty.

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