Pescaderos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, don’t get your hopes up too high. The first real chance of anything worth paddling out for is a fair way off. We’ve got a long stretch of flat, small, or just plain messy conditions ahead. From now until about the middle of next week, it’s a real struggle. We’re talking days of tiny swell, bad wind, and no real energy to speak of. The first week is basically a write-off for anything decent.

The first few days show nothing but tiny, weak surf. Friday afternoon only has 2ft from the SSW with a very long 15-second period, but it’s crossed up and just not doing the job. The combined swell energy is a weak 295, so it’s just a dribble. Water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Saturday and Sunday are even worse, with waves dropping to 2ft and 2ft, and the wind is all over the place. There’s a moment on Sunday morning where it goes glassy, but the swell is tiny and weak, with energy around 197. It’s surfable, but only just.

Monday morning is the same story – glassy but tiny. After that, the wind picks up and the swell direction swings around, but it’s all short-period junk. By Tuesday the 14th, the swell is down to 1.0ft with a super long 18-second period, but it’s so weak and small it’s worthless. The energy is only 121. Mid-week, the swell tries to pick up a little, hitting 4ft on Wednesday afternoon, but the period is a pathetic 6 seconds, and it’s from the WNW. That’s just windswell mush. The energy is 232, but it’s poor quality.

The first real standout finally shows up on Thursday, July 16th. The morning session at Pescaderos has 4ft from the WNW, with a 9-second period, and a moderate combined energy of 363. It’s still a cross-shore wind, but it’s a light breeze, so it’s not totally trashed. The afternoon holds 3ft from the W with an 8-second period. The conditions are still called “marginal,” but compared to the junk before it, this is the best we’ve seen. It’s not a classic, but it’s the first real window for a paddle.

After that, the swell dies again. Friday the 17th has tiny 1ft waves with a very long 18-second period, but it’s so small it’s barely a ripple. The energy is 220. Saturday the 18th looks a bit better on paper, with 2ft from the SW and a long 18-second period, and the energy climbs to 397. But the wind is cross-shore, and the surf is described as “marginal” at best.

The only real bright spot in the whole forecast comes on Monday, July 20th, in the afternoon. Pescaderos is looking at 2ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, but the combined energy jumps to a solid 368. More importantly, the wind goes clean cross-offshore from the W at 9 mph. For the first time, the forecast is saying “expect good surf conditions.” The swell is small, but clean, lined-up, and with that long period, it’ll have some push. It’s a beginner-friendly size, and with the clean wind, it’s the best option in the whole 16-day window. Don’t expect barrels, but for a fun, clean session on a small board, that’s your window.

The days after that fizzle out again. Tuesday the 21st is back to poor conditions, and the rest of the week is a mix of small, weak swells and onshore winds. By Thursday the 23rd, we’ve got a tiny 2ft from the SSW and a weak energy of 144. The last few days of the forecast are just more of the same – small, weak, and not worth getting excited about.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total dud. The best surf of the whole 16 days is on Monday, July 20th, in the afternoon, when the wind goes clean and the swell has a little bit of life. It’s not a big swell, but it’s the only clean window we’ve got. Other than that, it’s a long, quiet stretch. Keep your board waxed and your eyes on the forecast, because it can’t stay this flat forever.

Rusty.

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