Pescaderos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range picture for Pescaderos isn't exactly firing, and I’ll be straight with you—there’s a whole lot of nothing at the start. We’re looking at a solid stretch of tiny, poor surf for the first several days. The water’s running about 70°, which is a fair bit warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit while you’re sitting there staring at flatness.

The first good chunk of the window, from the 9th through the 13th, is pretty grim. We’re talking ankle-biters at 1ft to 2ft, with a weak combined energy reading (143 to 236). The swell is coming from the SSW, but it’s just not showing up. Winds are mostly light and cross or cross-on, which keeps things mushy and bumpy. There’s no real push, and the surf quality is poor. It’s a waiting game.

Things start to look a *little* more interesting around the 14th and 15th. The swell bumps up slightly to 3ft, and the energy starts to build, hitting the 300s to 400s (341 to 408). It’s still not big, but the period is holding around 16 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. It just might be a bit too straight for this beach break, though. The wind is still light and cross-shore, but the tide and sandbanks might line up for a few rideable ones. It’s still marginal, but it’s the first sign of life.

The 16th and 17th see the swell peak a little, with 3ft on the 16th afternoon and a 14-second period. The energy is up there, around 431-443. Still, the wind is cross to cross-on, so it’s not going to be clean perfection. The 17th afternoon actually brings a cross-off breeze, which is a bonus, but the swell is already dropping back down to 2ft. There might be a fun, clean wave for a short window, but it’s fleeting.

After that, it’s back to the grind. The 18th through the 20th are mostly small and ordinary, with 1ft to 2ft waves. There’s a bit of a cross-off wind in the afternoons on the 18th, 19th, and 20th, which will clean things up, but there just isn’t the swell to make it worth much. The energy is still moderate, in the 150 to 253 range, but it’s not translating to anything exciting.

Now, for the long-range stuff, the 21st to 23rd brings a shift in direction. We’ve got a WNW swell showing up, but it’s short-period, only 9 seconds, which is weak and junky. It’s about 3ft, so there’s some size, but that short period means it’s going to be messy and walled up. The energy is moderate, around 228 to 333, but the quality is just not there. The 23rd morning has 3ft, but again, that 9-second period is a killer. Not worth getting excited about.

The last day, the 24th, drops back down to 1ft, and the direction swings to the SSE with a 17-second period. That’s a long-period swell, but it’s tiny, and the energy is only 272. It’s more of a tease than anything else.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, the 16th morning looks like the standout to me. It’s got 3ft of SSW swell, a 15-second period, and the energy is at 443, the highest of the whole window. The wind is light and cross-on, which isn’t perfect, but it’s manageable. It’s not a day for beginners, but it’s the closest we get to a proper wave. The other one to keep an eye on is the 23rd morning—it’s got a bit more size at 3ft, but that short-period WNW swell is a bit of a gamble. It could be a fun, punchy beachie, but it could just as easily be a closeout. I’d say the 16th is your best bet.

There are long gaps here with nothing on offer, so don't get your hopes up for the first week. But the ocean can change, so keep an eye on it. This is Pescaderos, and it’s fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay this poor for long. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Read more