Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. I’ve looked over this stretch of coast and honestly, it’s a tough one.

We’re starting here on Thursday, July 30th, and the outlook is grim. The reef and point setup we’re looking at is a "fairly consistent" spot, but for the next 16 days, the surf is just not happening. The first few days are a flat-out write-off. Swells are tiny, mostly around 1 ft to 2 ft, with weak energy for the most part. The one bit of hope is that the wind often goes light and cross-offshore, which would keep the water glassy, but with no real swell to push through, it’s just a flat lake out there.

This dry spell stretches all the way into the second week of August. There’s a massive gap here with nothing worth paddling out for. The combined energy of the swells is laughably low for days on end, with values like 9 or 16, which is basically nothing. The water temperature is a standout, though. It’s running at 72°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, almost like a warm bath, but with no waves, you’re better off swimming.

Things start to get a little more interesting around Tuesday, August 11th, but it’s a very long-range promise. The swell period starts to climb, with some long-period groundswell energy showing up. By the afternoon of the 11th, we see a bump in combined energy to 145 (moderate wave energy), and into the 12th, it hits 183. The swell direction is coming from the SW, which is a good match for the optimum swell direction of NW for this spot, but it’s a bit of a cross. The wind is a problem, though. It’s a persistent cross-onshore, which will make it choppy.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Thursday, August 13th. The afternoon before that, the combined energy jumps to 219 (strong wave energy), with a 2 ft swell from the SW and a period of 16 seconds. That’s a solid groundswell, but the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it won’t be perfect. On the morning of the 14th, the wind lightens up to a cross-shore, and the energy is still moderate at 124, with a 2 ft swell. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but for the experts, that afternoon of the 13th might show a bit of life.

Honestly, for most of the window, with the tiny swell, poor quality, and persistent cross-onshore winds, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Keep your expectations low, and if you’re a beginner, don’t bother. The forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but right now, it’s a long wait for a very small window.

Rusty.

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