Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here again, this time in feet and miles per hour. We’ve got a long outlook, and I’ll be straight with you—it’s a quiet stretch. We’re looking at a reef and point break that’s fairly consistent and fairly exposed, with an optimum swell from the NW, but for a good long while, the surf is small and the conditions are off. Let’s break it down.

The water temp is 68°, which is 4° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a notable bump, so the water’s feeling more like a warm bath than a typical mid-winter chill. That’s something, at least.

Now, for the surf. Honestly, the first ten days or so are a write-off. From Monday the 6th of July right through to the middle of the month, we’ve got tiny, weak, and messy conditions. Swell heights barely scrape 3 ft, and the combined energy is mostly in the single or low double digits—22, 27, 71 (weak energy). The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” No scores worth mentioning. The only highlight in that first week is Wednesday morning the 8th—there’s a brief moment of glassy conditions with a 3 ft W swell at 7 seconds. The wind is glass, so the surface will be like a mirror, but the swell is short period and the energy is only 56 (weak). It’s pretty, but not punchy. You could get a few if you’re desperate.

The second half of July is still quiet. The 16th of July (Thursday) brings a tiny 2 ft SW swell at 16 seconds, with combined energy of 105 (moderate). That’s a very long period groundswell, which means better shaped waves, but for a point or reef break, that could work. The morning is clean with a cross-off breeze, and it’s rated as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s the first time we see a score above zero, but it’s just a 1. Not a standout.

Now, the standout—the one that makes this whole outlook worth reading—is Sunday the 19th of July. That afternoon is where it’s at. We’ve got a 3 ft SW swell at 17 seconds, combined energy of 375 (strong). The wind is cross-offshore and light, so expect clean, lined-up waves. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions”—the only time in the whole 16 days we get a score of 2. For this break, that’s the pick. The swell direction is SW, and the optimum for this spot is NW, so it’s not a perfect match, but that long period groundswell will still wrap in nicely at this reef and point setup. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few out, but it won’t be a circus.

Monday the 20th of July morning holds onto some energy with a 2 ft SW swell at 15 seconds and combined energy of 136 (moderate), but the wind is cross-offshore and clean. It’s a 1 again. After that, we tail off into tiny, short-period junk.

So, the best bet is Sunday the 19th of July afternoon. If you can hold out that long, you’ll be rewarded with clean, long-period groundswell and decent energy. Everything before that is small, weak, and mostly choppy. The forecast is more reliable in the near term, and for that first week, it’s stubbornly flat. The second week is a long-range promise—less certain, but that Sunday afternoon is the one.

That’s it from me. Keep your eyes on the horizon.

Rusty

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