Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me be straight with you – I’ve looked at what’s coming down the pipe for this region and it’s not looking like much of a summer. This is a reef and point set-up, generally exposed to the NW swell window, and it’s a pretty frustrating outlook for the next two and a half weeks.

The pattern is flat and weak. The water is running warm at 73°F, which is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year, but that’s about the only exciting thing happening. The swell energy is tiny, barely registering over 50 (combined energy of all swells directed here) for most of the period, and the waves are small, sloppy, and lacking any punch.

We’re looking at a long, dry spell right from the start. Wednesday the 29th kicks off with nothing – 2 ft of weak, short-period wind swell from the west, cross-on wind, and the report says it’s poor. That’s the story for the next several days. You’ll see a few clean mornings with light offshore winds, like Thursday the 30th, but the swell is a pathetic 1 ft from the west, period is short at 6 seconds. It’s flat. Friday the 31st is the same – 2 ft with a clean cross-off wind in the morning, but it’s still poor surf. We go through Saturday, Sunday, Monday... all the same. Tiny waves, clean conditions wasted on no swell.

There is a faint glimmer for the afternoon of Friday the 31st. The swell jumps to 1.0 ft from the SW, but the period stretches to 15 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, and the combined energy hits 54. It’s still tiny, but that long period suggests the little energy that’s there will be lined up. For the reef and point, that could actually produce a rideable, shapely little wave. The problem is, the wind turns cross-on and choppy. It’s barely a blip.

Then we go into another gap. Monday the 3rd of August, same story – 1.0 ft at 16 seconds, clean offshore wind in the morning, but the energy is only 67. It’s a tease. Tuesday the 4th, Wednesday the 5th, Thursday the 6th – all showing the same pattern of tiny, long-period groundswell, but the wind is either cross or cross-on, and the waves stay under 2 ft. The energy never breaks 100.

The only day that might move the needle, and I’m being generous, is the morning of Friday the 8th of August. We’ve got a clean cross-off wind from the SSW, swell bumping up to 2 ft from the west at 6 seconds. The energy is 24 – still weak. Saturday the 9th is similar, 2 ft at 6 seconds, but with a cross-shore wind. It’s not good, just less bad.

Honestly, for the entire 16-day window, from Wednesday the 29th of July through to Thursday the 13th of August, the best you can hope for is a knee-high wave with a clean face. The water is warm, the wind is often light, but the swell is just not there. There is no standout. There is no one or two days where I’d say, “Go now.” It’s a bust. The combined energy of all swells directed here never gets out of the weak double digits, hitting a max of 85 on the 3rd, and those are the most promising, but still tiny.

This is just one of those runs where the forecast looks like a desert. It’s a real shame, because the wind is right for clean conditions most mornings. If the swell kicks in later, those mornings will be magic. But for now, I’d save your energy. Keep your eyes on the long-range, things can change. But for this forecast period, it’s a big fat zero. Take a week off.

Rusty.

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