Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real here. I’ve had a good look at the charts and the models for this stretch, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a tough run. If you’re jonesing for a wave, you’re gonna have to be patient, real patient.

We’re looking at a reef and point set-up that’s fairly exposed to the swell, but the optimum direction is from the northwest. The problem is, for the next week and a half, the swell is just not cooperating. The water is sitting at a very warm 72°, which is a whopping 7° above normal for this time of year – that’s weirdly warm, like a bath. Don’t expect a wetsuit to be your friend.

Right out of the gate, from Friday the 7th of August, it’s flat and weak. We’re talking a combined energy of just 4 (weak), and a wave height of 0.3ft. That’s a lake, not the ocean. The wind is a cross-on from the WSW at 12 mph, so it’s choppy and messy. This poor run continues right through the weekend and into the next week. Morning sessions on the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th are all basically flat with tiny, disorganised crumbles. The wind switches around, but the swell height barely cracks 2ft and the energy stays in the low double digits at best. It’s a frustrating stretch of “poor surf conditions” on the data.

We finally see a tiny pulse of life on the morning of Thursday the 13th of August. The swell is still a paltry 2ft from the southwest, but the period jumps to 16 seconds, which is a proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 153, which is moderate. The wind goes light and cross-off from the SSW, so the surface will be clean. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about the best we get. The swell direction is south-west, not the ideal north-west, so it’s going to be weak and inconsistent for this spot. It’s the only thing worth even looking at for the whole first week.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. The 14th and 15th of August are a write-off – tiny swell, nasty cross-onshore winds. There’s a slight bump on the 16th and 17th, with the swell hitting 3ft on the morning of the 17th, but it’s from the west and the wind is cross-on at 12 mph, so it’s going to be a bumpy, blown-out mess. The energy is moderate at 239 on the afternoon of the 17th, but the quality is still poor.

Then we hit a long, quiet stretch. From the 18th of August all the way through to the 22nd, we’re back to tiny, gutless waves. The swell is coming from the south-west with a very long period, up to 19 seconds, but the height is a measly 0.3ft to 1.0ft. That kind of long-period energy on a tiny swell just makes it a slow, fat, un-rideable groundswell. The wind does go offshore on the morning of the 19th from the SSE at 9 mph, which would be clean, but there’s nothing to ride. The combined energy is a pathetic 16.

So, the honest truth? Don’t hold your breath. The only real window is the morning of Thursday the 13th of August, and even that’s a gamble. If you’re a beginner, this whole period is a pass. There’s nothing over 5ft so it’s not too big, but there’s just nothing at all. The consistent long-period swells are all too small. For the rest of the run, you’re better off cleaning your board or checking the forecast for a miracle. This is a proper flat spell, blank for nearly a week at a time.

Rusty.

Read more