Exiles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’re looking at a pretty quiet run for Exiles over the next 16 days. The good news is there are a few clean, glassy mornings, but the afternoon seabreezes kick in and muck things up every day. This is a long-period groundswell setup – periods between 11 and 19 seconds – so the waves that do show will have decent push, but it’s small, mostly 1ft to 3ft. The combined swell energy sits in the moderate range, bouncing around 105 to 399. The water temp is about average for this time of year. Because the swell is so small and comes from the SSW to SW (which is pretty close to the optimum WNW for Exiles), it’s not going to fire. This is a point break that can be inconsistent, and right now it’s living up to that.

Let’s start with Wednesday the 16th of September: morning has some cloud, a light SSE cross-off breeze at 9 mph, and a tiny 2ft SSW groundswell with a massive 17-second period. The energy is 208 – moderate – and it’s clean, but the waves are very ordinary. Afternoon turns choppy with a cross-shore, and it’s poor.

Thursday the 17th: same story. Morning is clear, almost no wind, super clean with 2ft SSW swell at 16 seconds and 217 energy. Surfable but nothing to get excited about. Afternoon goes cross-onshore and choppy.

Friday the 18th: another clean morning with 2ft SW swell at 19 seconds and 266 energy. Glassy but tiny. Afternoon, a moderate cross-onshore ruins it.

Now, Saturday the 19th of September is the first standout. Morning is clear, glassy with a gentle S breeze, and 2ft SW swell at 18 seconds. The combined energy is 271 – moderate – and conditions are clean. There’s a real chance for a few fun, lined-up waves on the point before the wind shifts. The 2ft is small, but the long period will give them shape. Good surf conditions are on the cards. Afternoon turns poor.

Sunday the 20th: morning is even better with a light SSE offshore at 6 mph, 2ft SW swell, 18-second period, energy at 302. Clean as a whistle. This is another solid window. Monday the 21st builds a touch: 3ft SW swell at 17 seconds, energy jumps to 399 (still moderate but the best of the run), with a gentle offshore breeze in the morning. That’s your peak – small but clean, and that long period will make the most of it. Afternoon degrades.

After Monday, the period drops a bit and the winds get worse. Tuesday the 22nd morning is only light cross-shore, and the swell drops to 2ft. Wednesday the 23rd through to the end of September is a long, bleak stretch. Most mornings are clean but the swell is tiny, and by afternoon it’s choppy and poor. There’s a gap of several days – from Tuesday afternoon all the way through to Sunday the 27th – where there’s really nothing worth paddling for. On Sunday the 27th morning, we get a brief moment of glassy conditions with a 2ft SSW swell at 12 seconds and energy of 194. Surfable but very ordinary.

Into the first week of October, nothing changes. Small, poor afternoon conditions dominate the forecast. The best bet is to plan for Saturday or Monday morning around the 19th–21st of September for the cleanest, most consistent little waves. It’s not big, but it’s as good as it gets here.

Rusty.

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