Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our stretch of coast, specifically Deadman’s. Let me tell you straight—it’s a quiet stretch ahead. We’ve got a lot of small, weak swell on the way. The energy readings are mostly in the low to mid hundreds, which is weak to moderate at best. There’s a bit more push later on, but it’s still not going to be a big-wave show.

Deadman’s is a point break that rarely gets going, and this stretch is no exception. It’s been inconsistent, and the first week is looking pretty average. The water is sitting at 73°, which is a whopping 9° above the long-term average. That’s not just a bit warm; that’s proper unusual for this time of year, so you might want to ditch the full wetsuit.

The early days, from Saturday the 12th through to the middle of next week, aren't offering much. Swell heights are basically hovering around 1ft to 2ft, coming from the SW with periods around 14 to 16 seconds. A lot of the time it's cross-onshore, which is junk. The afternoons are a bit cleaner with a cross-off breeze, but the waves are still just knee-to-waist high. A couple of those mornings, like Monday the 14th, have a bit more period at 18 seconds, but it's still tiny.

Things get a whisker more interesting starting around Wednesday the 16th. The energy starts to climb a bit—the Wednesday morning readout is 315, and it stays in the 200s and 300s for a few days. Still, the wave height tops out at a meager 3ft. Thursday the 17th afternoon has a moderate breeze, but the wind is cross-off, so it’s clean. Nothing to get too excited about yet.

Now, here’s the standout. It’s the long-range, and it’s promising. Look at Monday the 21st. The afternoon sees the swell holding at 3ft from the SW with a 17-second period, and the energy jumps to 436. That's the strongest reading in the whole stretch. The wind is a gentle cross-off, and the report says "expect good surf conditions." That’s the pick of the bunch. Clean, small but lined-up waves, and the longer period should give it some shape on the point. It won't be a giant, but for the size, it should be the best we see. It's over a week away, so treat it as promising but don't lock your plans in yet.

After that, it fades again. The last few days of September slide back into the doldrums, with poor surf and energy readings back down in the 100s and low 200s. The period gets shorter too, dropping to 12-14 seconds, so it'll be mushier.

So, if you're keen, keep an eye on that Monday the 21st afternoon. Everything else is a wait-and-see kinda deal. For us, this is just how it goes sometimes—the ocean likes to tease. The waves are small, so it's not a beginner's worry, but it's not a punchy day either. The winds are often light or gentle, which is a positive, but all that cross-on muck in the mornings is the main buzzkill. I'd say keep the board handy, but don't rush out for anything before that Monday. It’s a long blank stretch, but the pattern can flip. I’ll be watching.

Right, that’s the forecast. I’m signing off.

Rusty

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