Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: this is a tough stretch. The whole 16-day window is a real struggle for Rincon. We’re looking at a long, flat run with hardly any surf worth paddling out for. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t show up until the end of the first week, and even then, it’s a marginal call. The whole period is dominated by tiny, weak swells, mostly from the SSW and SW, with onshore or cross-onshore winds. The water is sitting at a balmy 69°F, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, but that’s about the only highlight.

The first few days, from Friday the 21st through to Tuesday the 25th, are a total write-off. Tiny swell, poor conditions, nothing doing. We finally get a tiny flicker of hope on Wednesday the 26th afternoon, with a marginal call. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the WNW, but the period is a shocker at just 6 seconds. That’s short-period wind chop, not real groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 268, but it’s just not gonna stack up into a clean wave at Rincon, especially with the wind still on it.

The best on offer, and I’m scraping the barrel here, looks like the afternoon of Wednesday the 26th, or maybe a session on Thursday the 27th. Thursday morning has a 3ft swell from the WNW with an 8-second period, combined energy of 141 (moderate), and the wind is still light and onshore from the SW. It’s small, it’s weak, but it’s the best we’ve got. The crowd factor is a problem here – Rincon is a world-class point break that gets *often* crowded, and on a day like this, everyone will be fighting for the same few peaks.

If you’re a beginner, steer clear – the swell is small, but the conditions are messy and the crowd is a factor. For the experts, it’s a bit of a novelty, but don’t expect any gems. The long period swells we see later (like the 1ft at 19 seconds on Friday the 28th) have a combined energy of 356 (strong), but that’s all energy and no height. A long period, tiny swell just wallows and won’t break properly at a point break like this. It’s a tease.

From the 29th of August through the 5th of September, it’s more of the same: tiny swells, light onshore winds, and a couple of days with rain showers. Nothing changes. The 4ft to 4ft swells on the 31st of August are again short-period (6-8 seconds) and weak. It’s not worth the drive.

Honestly, the only thing that stands out is that the water is unusually warm. But for surf? It’s a flat spell. The setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for the entire 16 days. Hang tight, the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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