Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. I’ve been staring at the charts for Rincon - Indicator, and I’ll be straight with you: it’s a slow burn. The next week and a half is going to test your patience if you’re chasing anything with real push. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf, with the odd pulse of energy that just doesn’t have the size to back it up.

The whole window starts off pretty flat. Tuesday afternoon the 4th has a tiny 1ft SW swell, but the energy is weak, only 71 on the combined scale. That’s not even enough to get excited about. The water, though, is sitting at 70°F, which is a solid 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a big deal – you won’t need the thick rubber, that’s for sure.

Wednesday the 5th through Saturday the 9th is more of the same. We’re paddling around on 1ft to 2ft swells, mostly from the SSW. The periods are short, in that 13-19 second range, but the energy is mostly weak to moderate. The wind is light, but it’s cross-onshore, which is going to keep things a little bumpy. Not ideal, but not terrible either. It’s just… there’s nothing to work with. The best energy in this first block is Friday afternoon, with a combined 209, but the swell is only 2ft. You might find a clean peak on the point if you’re really keen, but it’s going to be a long paddle for a knee-high wave.

The second week rolls around and we’re still stuck in the same pattern. From Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 13th, it’s the same story: 1ft to 2ft of SSW/SW swell, weak to moderate energy, and light cross-onshore breezes. The point is going to be a lake most of the time. You’ll see a few ripples, but nothing that’s going to make you scramble for your board.

Now, here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Towards the end of the window, that Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th, the energy levels start to climb. Friday morning the energy jumps to 263, and by the afternoon it’s up to 301. The swell is still small, only 2ft, but the period is a touch longer at 18-19 seconds. That’s a sign of a more organized groundswell, but the size just isn’t there to make it count. Saturday the 15th gets the biggest swell of the whole period, hitting 2ft, but the morning is glassy with a light offshore, and that’s the best it’s going to get. The afternoon, though, the wind swings to the west and kicks up to 12 mph, making it choppy and messy. That’s a kite-surfing kind of day, not a paddle-surfing one.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are similar – 2ft of SSW swell, but the energy is dropping back down. The wind is light, but it’s mostly cross-onshore again. The last few days, Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, fade back into the 1ft to 2ft range with moderate energy.

So, what’s the call? Honestly, there’s no standout day here. The best of a bad bunch is probably Saturday morning the 15th. You’ve got the biggest swell of the window at 2ft from the SSW, with a light offshore wind and clean conditions. It’s not going to be epic, but it’ll be the cleanest, most consistent waves you’ll find in the whole 16 days. If you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your window. Otherwise, this is a good time to check your gear, because it’s a long stretch of smallness.

Rusty.

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