Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Rincon – Indicator. Gotta be straight with you, this stretch of the forecast is a real test of patience. The water is running at 70°, which is a solid 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a seriously unusual warm spell, feels more like a tropical bath than a usual autumn session.

The pattern starts off flat. We’re talking Monday the 7th through to Wednesday the 9th, with next to nothing on offer. Tiny, weak swells barely pushing 2 ft with a light cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is just a whisper in the 56 to 173 range. Not worth paddling out for.

We finally get a bit of a pulse kicking in around Thursday the 10th morning. The swell comes up to 2 ft from the SW, with a 17-second period and a glassy, light breeze. The combined energy reads 294 (moderate). It’s still marginal, but the clean conditions on offer make it a sneaky pick for a longboard session if you’re desperate. The wind stays light and on all day, so it’s as clean as it’s gonna get.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th mornings see a similar 2-2 ft SW swell, but the energy drops off a bit. Then Saturday afternoon throws a curveball: a 4 ft swell from the WNW, but with a terrible 5-second period. That’s all wind chop, no shape. The combined energy jumps to 248 (moderate), but the quality is poor.

Sunday the 13th afternoon is where things get a little more interesting. The swell pushes to 5 ft from the WNW, and the period bumps up to a still-short 6 seconds. The energy is strong at 411 (moderate to strong). It’s marginal, but it’s the biggest swell we’ve seen. Still, that short period means it’s going to be a bit of a mess at the point.

Monday the 14th afternoon sees the biggest number of the run: 5 ft from the WNW, but still a poor 6-second period. The energy hits 288 (moderate). It’s a marginal surf day, and the size is too big for beginners. For experienced surfers, it’s a gamble.

The standout window, if you can call it that, is Thursday the 10th. It’s the only day where the period is long (17 seconds) and the wind is dead calm. The swell is only 2 ft, but that long-period groundswell and the offshore conditions mean it’ll be the cleanest, most lined-up wave of the whole forecast. For a point break like Rincon, that long period is a major plus. The crowd profile reads “often”, so expect company.

The rest of the run through to the 22nd is a mix of tiny waves, short-period bump, and onshore winds. Not much to get excited about. The combined energy never really fires up in a way that matches good conditions.

Overall, it’s a lean couple of weeks. The only real standout is that Thursday the 10th for a clean, small wave session. The bigger pulses on the 13th and 14th are too short-period to be truly good. Keep your expectations low, and you might get a few fun ones.

Rusty.

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