Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty flat for the most part, with a lot of days showing nothing but small, weak, and messy conditions. The swell energy is low, often under 200 (like 164 on Monday morning, 137 on Monday afternoon), and what little swell we get is coming from the wrong direction for the point. The wind is light, but it’s onshore or cross-onshore for most of the period, which just adds a little bump to already tiny waves. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing strange there.

We’ve got a solid run of poor surf from the 10th of August through the 17th – a full eight days where you’re better off doing something else. There’s a glimmer of hope on the 18th of August, Tuesday morning, where the combined energy jumps to 348 and the comment shifts from “poor” to “marginal.” That’s the first real sign of life. That morning we’ve got a 2ft swell from the SSW, period of 16 seconds, and light offshore wind from the WSW. It’s tiny, but it’s clean and the long period (16 seconds) gives it a bit of push. The energy is moderate (348). Still, it’s the best we’ve seen in over a week.

Looking further out, the 23rd of August, Sunday morning, shows a 1ft swell from the SW with a very long period of 19 seconds. That’s a groundswell, and at Rincon, that long period can really wrap around the point and create some nice lines. The wind is light and onshore, so it’ll be clean. The energy is still low (121), but the quality of the swell is promising. The best bet, though, looks like the 25th of August, Tuesday morning. We’ve got a 1ft swell from the SW, period of 16 seconds, light offshore wind from the SW. The combined energy is 151. It’s not big, but it’s the cleanest, most consistent-looking option in the whole 16-day window. The swell direction (SW) is a good match for Rincon, and with the wind staying light, the point should be glassy.

So, if you’re looking for a paddle, the 18th of August is the first real chance, but the 25th of August is the standout. It’s a long way out, so don’t bet the house on it, but the signs are there. For the rest of it, you’re looking at a lot of flat days. Keep an eye on the sky, but honestly, don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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