Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, I'm gonna level with you straight up. This forecast is a tough one to write. We've got a long, dry spell ahead. The first surfable action doesn't even kick off until Sunday, July 26th, and even then... it’s a bit of a heartbreaking story. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but almost every single day comes back with "poor surf conditions." It's not for lack of swell energy, though. The problem is the direction.

For the entire run, the swell is coming from the southwest (SW) and south-southwest (SSW), which is fine for Rincon - Indicator, but the wind is constantly blowing from the southwest and west-southwest too. That puts us in an onshore or cross-onshore wind pattern for nearly the whole period. Clean, groomed waves? Forget it. It's going to be choppy and messy.

Sunday, July 26th through to Tuesday, July 29th, there’s a moderate amount of swell energy in the water (around 319 to 480 on the energy scale), with a very long period between 16 and 19 seconds. That’s a beautiful groundswell, but it’s completely ruined by the 10 km/h onshore winds. It’s a tease. The water temp is sitting at about 70°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, almost like a bath for July.

From Thursday, July 30th through Saturday, August 2nd, the swell period drops significantly to 7-8 seconds. That’s short period, weak windswell. The energy drops to two-digit numbers (45-125). Combine that with persistent onshore or cross-onshore wind from the WSW and S, and you’ve got ankle-snappers if you're lucky. Not worth paddling out.

There’s a small window on Monday, August 5th and Wednesday, August 7th where the period climbs back up to 14-21 seconds (that’s a very long period on the 6th and 7th), and the energy picks up again (120-158), but the wind stays cross-onshore from the south. For a point break like Rincon, that south wind is just going to wash it out. The swell size is only about 1 ft to 1 ft anyway, which is tiny.

Honestly, there’s no standout day here. Not one. The best you could hope for is to catch a high tide on one of the glassier, lighter-wind morning windows when the wind is listed as just a light breeze, but even then, the wave comment is "poor surf conditions." If I had to pick the least terrible moment, it might be Sunday, August 3rd morning, or Sunday, August 9th morning, when the swell period is 15 seconds and the wind is light and onshore. Even then, the wave state is "unknown" which is never a good sign.

This is a rough patch for Rincon. If you absolutely need to get wet, you’ll be scratching for scraps. For the kitesurfers out there, with the consistent onshore winds and ankle-to-waist high swell, the setup looks more interesting for you than for us paddle surfers.

Hang in there, see you in the water when it gets better.

Rusty

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