Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and sit down, 'cause I'm lookin' at the next two weeks, and I gotta be straight with ya. It's a tough stretch. The short version? We're in a bit of a flat spell, and it's gonna last a while.

We're starting from now, and there's a real dry gap. I can't give ya a solid wave recommendation for many days. In fact, for the first ten days, from Tuesday the 18th right through until the morning of Thursday the 27th of August, the surf is just not on. It's "poor surf conditions" across the board. The swell is tiny, most of the time under 2 feet, and what's there is coming from the south-southwest with a super long period – around 14 to 18 seconds. That's groundswell, which at a point break like Rincon – Indicator (Rincon-Point) can have a bit of shape, but the combined energy is way down in the double digits and low triple digits (between 107 and 260 for the whole period), so there's just no push.

About the only thing worth noting early on is the water temp. It's sitting at 70°, a whopping 7° warmer than average for this time of year. That's very unusual. But with no waves, it's just a warm bath.

Now, let's be optimistic. The models are a fickle friend. It tends not to stay this poor forever. But for now, this run is real. Around Friday the 28th, there's a tiny flicker. The morning shows a bit of a pulse – 3 feet from the west with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 298 (moderate wave energy) and the wind is light and onshore from the southwest. The report even calls this "marginal" (a 1 out of 10). It's not a standout, but it's the first time the score isn't a zero. The break is *very consistent* and *fairly exposed*, so it might catch a few, but it'll be tough.

Then after that, from the 29th of August through to the 2nd of September, we slip right back into the same groove: tiny swell, long periods from the south, and poor surf.

The only true standout, and it's a late one... if you can wait. Look at Wednesday afternoon, the 2nd of September. The swell picks up to a clean 3 feet from the west, the wind is light and onshore from the southwest, and the combined energy hits 253 (moderate wave energy). The period is 8 seconds, so it's not a long-period groundswell, but the direction is a near-perfect match for Rincon's optimum west swell. It'll be a fun, clean longboard wave. It's still "poor surf conditions" according to the data, but compared to the desert we've been in, it's the best bet on the horizon. Just keep in mind it's a long-range call, so don't book your life around it. And you'll probably have the place to yourself, because everyone else will have given up by then.

Signing off,
Rusty

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