Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look what’s on the cards for this stretch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of pretty ordinary conditions. There’s no immediate surf worth jumping for, and the first real chance to wet a line doesn’t show up until Thursday afternoon, August 27th, and even then it’s a small one.

The overall pattern is a persistent run of small, onshore-affected swell from the SSW and SW. The winds are mostly blowing straight on or cross-on, which is a killer for quality. We’ve got a mix of very long period groundswell in there, which usually means clean lines, but with the wind direction being what it is, those waves are going to be chopped up. You’ll see a few spikes in combined energy – like Saturday morning August 29th hitting moderate energy (512) – but the wind just ruins it with "on" conditions.

The only real standout I can point to is a brief moment on Tuesday afternoon, September 1st. The wind goes glassy from the south at just 3 mph, and we get a small 0.7 ft swell from the SSW with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s a clean, glassy window, but it’s tiny. For a break like Rincon - Indicator (Rincon-Point), that’s a challenging session – you’ll need a log and some patience. It’s a consistent spot that’s fairly exposed to the W swell, and the water temp is sitting at 71°, which is about 7° warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit.

After that, the outlook gets grim again. From Wednesday September 2nd right through to Friday September 11th, the finder is showing nothing but poor surf conditions and marginal surf. There are stints of light cross-onshore breeze and gentle onshores. The swell stays small, mostly between 1 ft and 2 ft, with the wind never really turning truly offshore in a meaningful way. The combined energy dips as low as 50 (weak) on Tuesday September 1st morning, and never gets strong enough to outweigh the bad wind. It’s a long, blank feeling run.

For the last week, September 5th onward, the numbers don’t change much. The combined energy swings between weak and moderate (220 to 302) but the wind is either on or cross-on, and the period drops to 14-16 seconds. It’s the same story – a lot of energy, but nowhere to direct it cleanly. The crowds at Rincon are often around, but with this quality, I doubt many will be out. There’s no true standout in the second week; it’s a washout of poor conditions.

If you’re desperate, keep an eye on that Tuesday afternoon, September 1st, but don’t hold your breath. The best bet? Wait for a proper change in the wind.

Rusty.

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