Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you—this 16-day stretch for Rincon is a tough one to watch. We're looking at a long, dry spell with next to nothing rideable, but there's a tiny flicker of hope way down the line if you're patient and skilled.

The water's sitting at a balmy 70° right now, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year—pretty unusual and honestly feels like a warm bath if you're used to the norm.

Right off the bat, from Wednesday the 26th of August, it's a ghost town. The swell is tiny, mostly around 1 ft to 2 ft, with periods all over the place but the wave energy is weak, barely scraping into the double digits (like 96 or 73). Wind is offshore or light, which would usually be a good sign, but there's just nothing to work with. The forecast says "poor surf conditions" and it's dead calm—no real surf to speak of.

We ride through the rest of August and into the first week of September with barely a pulse. There's a slight uptick in energy around the 29th of August with a 3 ft SSW swell and a long 17-second period, giving us a moderate energy reading of 551, but it's still rated as marginal at best due to cross-onshore winds or questionable tides. It's not worth paddling out for, and honestly, it's frustrating.

The real standout, and I mean the only glimmer in this whole forecast, is Thursday the 3rd of September in the morning. We finally get a 4 ft swell from the SSW with a 14-second period and glassy conditions—wind is basically dead calm, just a slight air. That's the kind of clean surface you dream of. The combined energy jumps to 652 (moderate), and the forecast says "expect good surf conditions." For a point break like Rincon, a 5 ft swell is actually on the bigger side for advanced surfers, but 4 ft is still manageable for the experienced crew. The direction is SSW, which is a touch off the optimum W, but it's close enough to wrap in nicely. Keep in mind, with a 14-second period there'll be some decent gaps between sets, making the paddle out easier. But it's a one-off window—the afternoon goes cross-onshore and marginal, and after that, it's back to tiny, weak swells and poor surf conditions for the rest of the outlook.

So, if you're an advanced surfer and you can hold out for that Thursday morning, you might score a couple of clean ones. For everyone else, it's a waiting game. The run of poor conditions is pretty blank, but Rincon is a consistent spot; it tends not to stay this flat for long, so forecasts could change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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