Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm gonna level with you – the next couple of weeks at Rincon are looking pretty grim. This is one of those classic summer slumps where the swell just doesn't want to show up, and when it does, it's barely a ripple. We're in for a long stretch of nothingness, so don't be getting your hopes up.

The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so at least you won't be freezing if you're mad enough to paddle out on a log.

From Wednesday the 19th of August right through to the end of the month, it's a write-off. Swell heights are stuck between 1 ft and 3 ft, mostly from the SSW or SW, with combined wave energy barely cracking 200 (202 on Wednesday morning, 228 Wednesday arvo). The period is all over the shop – sometimes a long 15-18 seconds, which on a point like Rincon would normally be a blessing, but with that tiny size, it's just a tease. The onshore breeze from the SW to WSW keeps things fat and messy, and the actual wave quality is described as "poor surf conditions" with a score of 0 out of 10. There's no way around it – it's flat.

There's a tiny glimmer of hope on the morning of Friday the 28th of August. The swell picks up a touch to 2 ft from the SSW, but the period jumps to a very long 19 seconds, and the combined energy reaches 290. It's still only a 1 out of 10, and the description says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." You'd be flogging a dead horse.

Then on Saturday the 29th of August morning, we get a similar story – 3 ft SSW swell at 17 seconds, energy up to 418 (moderate energy), but still a 1 out of 10. Afternoon sees 3 ft at 16 seconds, 435 energy, but still a 0 out of 10. Don't be fooled by the numbers – the quality just isn't there.

The only real standout, and I say that with a heavy heart, is the afternoon of Tuesday the 1st of September. We get a 6 ft WNW swell, but the period is a pathetic 6 seconds (windswell), and the energy is 361. The light breeze from the SW is onshore, and it's still a 0 out of 10. That 6 ft is too big for beginners, and with that short period, it'll be a total washing machine. Honestly, for a point break like Rincon, a long-period groundswell from the W is what you want, but this ain't it.

The forecast confidence drops off in that second week, but even the promising-looking days like the 2nd of September (4 ft, 8 seconds, 364 energy) are labelled "marginal" at best. It's a struggle.

If you're desperate, the Saturday the 29th of August morning is your best bet, but it's a long shot. Otherwise, save your wax and wait for a proper swell.

Rusty.

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