Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day run for Rincon is a tough one to call. The data shows a whole lot of "poor surf conditions" and "marginal" windows, with none of the scores hitting the mark for a proper green light. There's a long gap of almost nothing worthwhile, especially for a spot that's usually so reliable. But don't lose hope; it's Rincon, and it never stays flat for too long. The only real flicker of something to paddle out for comes at the very end.

Right now, starting Friday the 24th, it's a write-off. We've got a tiny 3 ft swell from the west with a short 7-second period, and it's onshore. The water is a balmy 70° – that's a whopping 7° warmer than normal, which is very unusual for this time of year. That's a real talking point, but it doesn't help the surf. The energy is weak (62). Saturday and Sunday are more of the same: small, onshore, and messy. The combined energy jumps up a bit on Sunday morning (434) with a 2 ft south-southwest swell, but it's still a marginal call at best. The wind is light, but it's coming from the wrong direction.

The whole first week is a dud. Monday through Wednesday, the swell stays tiny – 2 ft to 3 ft – and the wind keeps it onshore or cross-onshore. The energy levels (like 501 on Monday afternoon, 525 on Tuesday morning) are moderate, but it doesn't matter with the wind being so poor. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st see the swell drop even further, with an 8-second period on Friday (energy 42) – that's just crumbly and weak. This is a classic "check the wind forecast" time, but the long-range isn't promising.

The first weekend of August, the 1st and 2nd, is a little better but still not good. Saturday morning we have a 3 ft south-southwest swell with a 15-second period, giving a combined energy of 356. The wind is light onshore, so it's clean but not punchy. A 15-second period is a long groundswell, which can be tricky at Rincon (a point break) – it can get a bit walled-up and straight, but the long gaps between sets make paddling out easier. I wouldn't call it a standout, just a glimmer. Sunday is similar with a 3 ft swell and 12-second period, but the wind is onshore again.

Then we hit a big gap. From Monday the 3rd of August right through to Friday the 8th, there's absolutely nothing. The swell is consistently below 2 ft, the periods are short, and the combined energy is mostly under 100 (weak). The wind is often cross-onshore, chopping up what little there is. This is a solid 5-day stretch of flatness.

The only real standout, and I mean the only one, is on Saturday the 8th of August. The morning shows a 1.0 ft swell from the south-southwest, but here's the kicker: the period is 19 seconds. That's a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is only 87 (weak), but that long period means it'll have a lot of push for its size. The wind is light and onshore, so it'll be glassy. The water temp is still warm, but we don't have a reading for that day. At Rincon, a 1.0 ft, 19-second swell from the south-southwest is a real sneaky treat. It's not a big wave, but it'll have a nice, clean shape, and with the light wind, it'll be smooth. The crowds will be *often* there, so expect a few heads bobbing around. It's the only window in the entire 16 days that even looks like a proper surf, and it's a long way out. It's promising, but take it with a grain of salt.

Until then, keep the board waxed and the patience high. This is a dry spell, but it won't last forever.

Rusty

Read more