Rincon - Indicator Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a pretty flat and quiet 16 days ahead at Rincon - Indicator. Honestly, it’s one of those stretches where you might want to leave the board in the truck and just go for a walk instead. The whole window is a struggle, with nothing really firing.

We start off on Sunday, July 5th, with a tiny 1 ft SSW swell at a very long 18 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on from the WSW at 9 mph, and the water is a touch warmer than normal at 64°. The combined energy is weak at 172, and it’s just poor surf conditions. That pattern sticks around. Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th see a bump in energy into the moderate range (317 to 451), but the swell stays small and the wind is either onshore or cross-on, keeping it messy. The best of a bad bunch might be Wednesday afternoon the 8th – we get a little 4 ft W swell, period a short 9 seconds, with a light onshore breeze from the SW at 6 mph. The combined energy is 555, which is moderate, but it’s still labeled as poor surf. Notta.

Thursday the 9th is the closest we get to a pulse. Morning has a 3 ft W swell at 10 seconds, light onshore wind, and the energy is 449. It’s only a marginal call – a 1 out of 10 – so it’s less “go” and more “maybe if you’re desperate.” That afternoon drops back to 2 ft. The rest of the first week is a write-off: tiny swells, cross-on winds, and energy levels dropping back under 200.

Looking into the second week, it’s more of the same. From the 13th to the 20th of July, the swell never really gets above 4 ft, and the wind stays mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The only flicker of life is Thursday the 16th afternoon – a 4 ft W swell with an 8-second period, light onshore wind, and the combined energy hits 326 (moderate). It’s another marginal call, a 1 out of 10. For a spot like Rincon, that’s a frustrating tease. The last few days, from the 18th onward, are tiny and weak, with energy dropping to just 74 on the 20th.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The best you can say is that Thursday the 9th morning and Thursday the 16th afternoon are the least bad, but they’re not good. The crowd at Rincon can be heavy, but with surf this poor, you’ll have it to yourself. The long period swells (over 15 seconds) we see early on are better suited for a point break like this, but there’s just not enough size or clean wind to make it work. The setup here is a point, but with these tiny waves and cross-on wind, it’s not a kite day either. Just a flat, quiet, disappointing outlook.

Rusty, signing off.

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