Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, it's Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe at Mavericks. We've got a 16-day window, but I gotta be straight with you – it's a bit of a slow burner. The first week is going to be a real struggle to find anything rideable, with a lot of poor conditions and marginal forecasts. The action starts to build towards the end of the month, but it's gonna take patience.

First up, Saturday the 18th of July through to Friday the 25th of July. It's a tough stretch. We're looking at tiny swell, mostly around 2 ft, with onshore and cross-onshore winds messing things up. The wave energy is moderate at best, hovering in the 200 to 700 range, but it's all short-period, weak stuff. The water temp is running about what you'd expect for this time of year. Honestly, there's hardly a window worth paddling out for. We do see a slight uptick on Tuesday afternoon the 21st with a 3 ft swell from the SSW, but the winds are cross-onshore and it’s only scoring marginal. The best I can say is, bring a book.

Now, Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th of July. This is where things start to get a little more interesting, but don't get your hopes up just yet. The swell is still small, around 3 to 3 ft from the SW, but the energy is picking up. We're seeing readings around 800 to 1000 (moderate wave energy). The winds are still mostly onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the quality poor. It’s still not worth a special trip, but if you're local, you might find a tiny, grovelly one if the tide plays ball.

The standout window arrives around Tuesday the 29th of July and into early August. This is the one to circle. The morning of Tuesday the 29th sees the swell jump to 5 ft from the SW with long-period energy (17 seconds). The combined energy hits a strong 1771 (strong wave energy)! The wind is light and onshore, which is better, but it's not offshore, so expect some texture. This is definitely getting into the territory where it's too big for beginners, but it could be a fun challenge for intermediates and a solid session for experts. The large, very long-period groundswell (over 15 seconds) from the SW means it might be a bit straight at the exposed spots, but for a big-wave reef like Mavericks, longer period is energy. The wind stays light for the morning session on Wednesday the 30th as well, with a similar 5 ft swell.

Then, as we roll into the very first days of August, the character changes. On the 1st and 2nd of August, the swell direction swings to the WNW and NW, dropping in period to around 8-9 seconds. The height holds around 5 to 6 ft, and the energy stays moderate to strong (485 to 883). The winds are still light and onshore, which isn't ideal. That smaller period means it’s windswell, not groundswell, so the shape won't be as good as those SW swells earlier. This is more of a mushy, rolling wave.

So, what's the call? If you have to pick one day, go for Tuesday the 29th of July in the morning. You're getting the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole forecast with that strong energy reading, a long period that Mavericks can handle, and the wind is at its lightest. It won't be glassy, but it'll be the best of a mixed bag. Keep in mind, this is a consistent, exposed reef break that is only for advanced surfers, and with that size and the crowds that can show, you need to know what you're doing.

Overall, the first week is a write-off. The last week is where the energy returns, but with onshore winds, you're trading power for clean conditions. The setup looks more interesting for paddle surfing than kite surfing, given it's a reef. Stay patient, and the end of the month might deliver one or two decent sessions.

Rusty.

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