Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I’m gonna level with you: this is a tough stretch for paddlers. The numbers don’t lie, and the conditions are largely messy, but if you’re patient, there might be a fleeting window to get a wave.

Right now, we’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of poor to marginal surf. The first real sniff of anything rideable doesn’t kick off until Monday, July 13th, and even then it’s a struggle. The swell energy is moderate at best, with values around 323 (combined energy), and the wind is a light breeze from the WSW, which is blowing onshore. That’s a recipe for bumpy, uninviting lines. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing freaky there.

From Monday afternoon all the way through to Monday, July 20th, it’s a slog. The wind turns cross-onshore, mostly from the NW or WNW, and the wave heights hang around 3 ft to 5 ft. The period is short, just 8 seconds, so those waves are gonna be weak and crumbly. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is poor. You’re looking at a lot of choppy, wind-affected surf. The best that can be said is that on Monday morning, July 20th, we get a brief window of onshore wind again with a 5 ft swell, but the tide will be questionable, so keep your expectations low.

Now, here’s the interesting bit. Starting Monday afternoon, July 20th, and into Tuesday, July 21st, the wind finally shifts to an onshore direction, which is a start. But the swell is still short-period (8-9 seconds) and only 4 ft to 5 ft. The energy is moderate (719 on Monday afternoon), but the forecast still calls it marginal. For a spot like Mavericks, that’s not enough to get excited about.

The real tease comes late in the run. On Saturday, July 25th, and Sunday, July 26th, we see a slight uptick. The swell direction stays true to the optimum from the WNW, with heights around 4 ft to 6 ft. The period increases to 10 seconds on the 25th, and the combined energy jumps to 614 and 657. That’s moderate energy pushing in. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore, though, so it’s not going to be glassy. Still, the swell is building, and if you’re an expert looking for a big, powerful wave, this is the only window on the whole forecast that has any real potential. For a seasoned charger on a big day, Sunday morning, July 26th, with a 5 ft WNW swell and moderate energy (609) and onshore wind, might be worth a look. The water temp is still average.

Other than that, the second week is a desert. The 27th and 28th are a mix of long-period groundswell (18 seconds) from the SW, but the wave heights are tiny (2 ft to 2 ft), and the wind is onshore. That’s a whole lot of energy for nothing. The long period at a beach break like Mavericks means the waves will break straight and be hard to ride.

So, to sum it up: The only standout is the period from Saturday, July 25th, to Sunday, July 26th. The swell is building, the direction is right, and the energy is moderate. But don’t kid yourself, the wind is against us. If you’re a kite surfer, this whole setup from the 16th to the 26th is going to look way more interesting than it is for paddle surfing. The crowds at Mavericks? They’re *sometimes* there, but given the conditions, you’ll probably have it mostly to yourself.

For the rest of the 16 days, leave your board at home. The surf is poor, and the forecasts are likely to change, but right now, there’s nothing to get stoked about.

Rusty.

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