Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, and I gotta be honest with you – it’s a tough one. The first real sniff of anything worthwhile doesn’t show up until we’re well into the second week, so there’s a big gap of poor conditions to sit through first.

The only break on the radar is Mavericks, a heavy reef slab that’s advanced-only and exposed to the open ocean. This spot is a beast when it’s on, but for the first nine days, from Wednesday the 26th of August right through to Thursday the 3rd of September, it’s pretty much a write-off. We’re looking at a mix of small, weak swells with combined energy readings mostly in the low hundreds to moderate range (from 148 up to 935), but the wind is a constant problem. It’s cross-onshore from the northwest for most of that stretch, leaving the surface choppy and messy. Even when the swell period gets long—like 16 to 19 seconds on the 28th and 29th—those long-period groundswells need clean conditions to shine, and they just don’t have it here. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Now, we finally get a glimmer of hope on Friday the 4th of September. That morning, the wind swings around to a glassy SSW light air, dropping to just 3 mph. The swell is small at 2 ft from the SW, but with a very long 18-second period, there’s some real energy in the water (combined energy of 616). The break is a reef, so those long-period lines should hold up nicely. That afternoon, it gets even better: the wind shifts to a glassy NNE breeze, the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the energy stays solid at 619. This is the standout window. The conditions are clean, the swell is there, and for a spot like Mavericks, that’s a rare treat. The Saturday morning on the 5th also has glassy conditions with a 2 ft SW swell at 16 seconds, but it’s not quite as punchy as Friday.

Still, for the rest of the run after that, it’s back to cross-onshore winds and poor surf, so that Friday the 4th is your one true shot. The break is consistent, so you know it’ll be breaking, but crowds are possible here. For an advanced crew, that Friday morning and afternoon is the best on offer in this whole 16-day outlook.

Rusty.

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