Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. This is a tough one, I gotta be honest with you. The numbers are telling me we’re looking at a real flat spell with hardly any decent surf to speak of for the whole 16-day run. There’s a lot of small swell and almost always a cross-onshore wind messing things up. Let’s break it down.

We start off on Thursday the 16th and it’s not looking good. We’ve got a 5ft to 6ft swell from the WNW, but it’s a short period, around 8 seconds, and that cross-onshore wind from the WNW at 12 mph is just making it choppy and messy. The water temp is a balmy 60°F, which is a whopping 4°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a real standout, feels like a bathtub, but the surf itself is rubbish. The combined swell energy is moderate (503), but it’s all wind chop.

Friday the 17th is more of the same. About 6ft of WNW swell, still short period, and the wind is onshore at 9 mph in the morning, switching to a cross-onshore 12 mph in the afternoon. The wave energy picks up a bit (970), but the quality is still poor.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see a big drop in size. We’re looking at 2ft to 3ft of swell from the SW. The period jumps up to 17-18 seconds, which is a long period groundswell, but the problem is the wind. It’s cross-onshore from the WNW on Saturday (12 mph), and onshore on Sunday (6-9 mph). The energy is still moderate (475-647), but with those tiny waves, it’s just not worth it. The forecasters are calling it “marginal” at best.

From Monday the 20th right through to the end of the month, it’s a real desert. The swell drops to almost nothing, between 2ft and 3ft, from the SW or SSW, with periods between 14 and 16 seconds. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, light to moderate. The combined energy is weak to moderate (218 to 906). The whole thing is just a washout for paddling a surfboard. There are a few sessions where the wind goes light and onshore, but the swell is just too small to do anything with.

The only little flicker of hope comes right at the end, on Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th of July. We see a bump in swell energy – 1345 on Saturday morning, which is strong wave energy – and the swell is from the SW with a very long period of 21-24 seconds. But the size is still only 2ft to 3ft. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore. That long period groundswell on such a small wave and with wind on it? It’s a tease. It’s going to be incredibly lined up but tiny and probably blown out. For an expert spot like Mavericks, this is a complete non-event. It’s a reef break that’s exposed to the WNW swell, and the optimum swell direction is WNW, but the forecast is all SW.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, there’s just nothing to get excited about here. The setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, with that consistent cross-onshore wind and small, choppy waves. The whole 16-day window is a blank run. For this area, a long stretch of small, poor quality surf like this is pretty normal. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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