Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about Mavericks – this stretch of coast is going through a real quiet spell. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for a proper session. There’s nothing that I’d call a genuine standout, and even the “best” days are only marginal, with poor surf conditions dominating. The first surfable suggestion doesn’t show up until Friday 17 July morning, and even then it’s just a marginal call with a score of 1 – that’s a four-day gap from the start with nothing worth paddling out for.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Alright, let’s run through it day by day.

Wednesday 15 July – Wednesday morning brings a 5ft swell from the WNW with a short 8-second period, so it’s jumbled and weak. That cross-on wind at 9 mph is making it choppy and poor. The combined energy is moderate at 604, but it’s messy. The afternoon stays the same story – 5ft, cross-on at 12 mph, energy drops to 410, and it’s still poor. No point wetting the suit.

Thursday 16 July – Thursday morning is a repeat: 6ft from the WNW, 8-second period, cross-on at 12 mph, energy at 568, and poor. Afternoon is a bit more cloud, still 6ft, cross-on from the NW, energy at 582, and still choppy. Nothing to get excited about.

Friday 17 July – Friday morning is the first time we see a marginal note. Swell is 5ft from the WNW, still 8-second period, but the wind is onshore at 9 mph. The combined energy is 534 – moderate. It’s not clean, and the score is a 1. This is the best on offer in the first week, but honestly, it’s a scratchy, uninviting wave. The afternoon goes back to poor with 5ft and cross-on wind.

Saturday 18 July to Sunday 26 July – From Saturday 18 July through to Sunday 26 July, the swell drops right off. We’re talking 2ft to 3ft most days, with long-period SW groundswell (16 to 24 seconds). That long period should mean shape, but it’s too small to do anything at Mavericks. The combined energy stays in the 200 to 1000 range – weak to moderate. Winds are mostly onshore or light cross-onshore. The marginal scores pop up again on Friday 24 July afternoon (score 1), Saturday 25 July morning (score 2), and Sunday 26 July morning (score 2). Saturday 25 July morning is the highest score in the whole outlook: a 3ft SW swell at 21 seconds, light onshore wind at 6 mph, and combined energy of 805. For a spot like Mavericks, that’s barely a ripple. The long period and small size mean it’ll be breaking too straight for the reef, and the energy is weak.

Monday 27 July to Thursday 30 July – The last few days are more of the same: 3ft to 4ft SW swell, periods around 15-18 seconds, onshore or cross-on winds, and combined energy around 500-900. The scores are all 0 or 1. Thursday 30 July morning is the last call – a 3ft SW swell, 16-second period, light onshore wind, energy at 506, and a marginal score of 1. It’s a forgettable end to a forgettable run.

There’s no standout day here. The surf is too small, inconsistent, and dogged by onshore wind. The combined energy never reaches strong levels, and the swell direction (WNW, then SW) doesn’t line up with the optimum WNW for Mavericks. For a wave this heavy, you need size and clean conditions, and we’ve got neither. If you’re a beginner, the swell never goes over 5ft, but the conditions are too poor to learn. If you’re an expert, there’s nothing to challenge you. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – the consistent cross-onshore winds and moderate energy would give a kite a good pull.

That’s the lot. It’s a lean stretch, but it tends not to stay poor for long around here. Forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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