Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this is a tough one for the Half Moon Bay area. The pattern over the next 16 days is a long, frustrating grind. There are no standout sessions, no windows where everything clicks, and I'm looking at a whole lot of poor surf conditions. The first recommendation doesn't come until the very start, and then it's basically a long dry spell. We've got a gap from the 22nd of July all the way through to the 5th of August where the models are showing nothing but poor surf. That's a long stretch of nothing.

Let's look at the one flicker of hope. On Tuesday, the 21st of July, we've got a chance at Mavericks in the afternoon. It's a tiny 3 ft swell from the SSW with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 376, but the real issue is the wind. We've got a 9 mph cross-shore from the south, which will leave a bit of a chop on the surface. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Honestly, it's a marginal forecast, and the score reflects that. It's a session for the patient and the local die-hards who know the reef, but it's not something I'd get excited about. The crowd situation is "sometimes" here, so on a Tuesday afternoon you might find a bit of space.

From Wednesday the 22nd through to the end of the month, the wind is a relentless problem. It's mostly a cross-onshore from the NW, and the swell is tiny and weak. The wave energy stays moderate for a while, but the quality is zero. We get a spike in long-period groundswell on the 24th and 25th, with periods hitting 24 seconds, but the height is only 2 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is terrible. Long-period swell like that needs a perfect wind to be any good, and we just don't have it.

Things get a bit more interesting in the first week of August, but not in a good way. On the 30th of July, the swell jumps up to 5 ft, but it's a short-period, windswally 8-second pulse from the WNW. That combined with a strong cross-onshore wind of 16 mph makes for a lumpy, bumpy mess. The wave energy is strong at 747, but it's all noise. This setup is honestly more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The same pattern continues into the 5th of August with a 5 ft swell from the WNW, but again, the wind is a cross-onshore mess.

So, the bottom line is, there's no real highlight here. The first day is the only one with a surfable score, and it's just barely on the radar. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off for quality waves. Keep your board in the car and wait for the next front to change the wind. This is one of those times where the forecast won't stay poor forever, but for now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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