Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it.

Well, I gotta be honest with you – this outlook is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is a real battle. We’ve got consistent swell, no doubt, and the direction is right out of the WNW, which is what Mavericks wants. But the wind is the story here, and it’s mostly a bad one. For the vast majority of the period, we’re looking at onshore or cross-onshore winds that are just chewing up the surface. It’s choppy, messy, and the scores reflect that – a whole lot of zeros. There’s a gap of solid surf action from now until late on the 24th of July.

The one break that’s in the picture is Mavericks. It’s an exposed, consistent reef break, and it’s a heavy one – strictly for advanced crew only. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a slightly thinner suit.

Let’s walk through it. From Monday, July 13th, right through to Thursday, July 24th morning, it’s just a write-off. The wind is relentless – onshore or cross-onshore from the WNW and NW, blowing 9 to 12 mph. The swell is small to moderate, rarely over 4 ft, but the energy is weak and the period is short, under 8 seconds. It’s just choppy and poor.

We do see a bit of a pulse on Thursday, July 16th, with the swell kicking up to 6 ft and the energy jumping to moderate, but the cross-on wind at 12 mph still ruins it. The same story repeats on Friday, July 17th and Saturday, July 18th – the swell drops off but the wind stays garbage.

There’s a glimmer on the morning of Friday, July 24th. The wind is a light breeze from the WSW at 9 mph, and the swell is 4 ft from the NW with a moderate period of 9 seconds. The energy is starting to build, and the report says marginal. It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen. The morning of Saturday, July 25th looks similar with a 4 ft WNW swell and light onshore winds, but it’s still just a marginal call.

The real standout – if you can even call it that – is the morning of Sunday, July 26th. The wind is light from the SW at 6 mph, giving us a light cross-onshore with just small wind ripples. The swell is a solid 4 ft from the WNW at 9 seconds, and the energy is moderate. The report says marginal, but that light wind is the best we’re gonna get. It’s the only period where the surface might be workable. The afternoon of the 26th gets a bit bigger at 5 ft, but the wind picks up to 9 mph cross-on, messing it up again.

The rest of the 27th and 28th go back to the same old story: moderate onshore winds and choppy, messy surf.

So, here’s the bottom line. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, the morning of Sunday, July 26th is your only real shot. The light wind will give you the cleanest surface of the whole 16 days. The swell is decent, the direction is perfect, but it’s a long wait for one marginal session. The rest of the time, it’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-surfing one.

Rusty.

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