Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. I’ve been staring at the charts for the next 16 days and, honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch for Mavericks (United States). We’re looking at a long, lean run with very few windows that are actually worth paddling out for.

The water is sitting at 61° right now, which is a solid 4° warmer than average for this time of year – that’s notably warm, you’ll notice it.

The first week is pretty much a write-off. From July 26th right through to the end of the month, the wind is a constant problem. It’s blowing cross-onshore from the NW or WNW, churning the place up. The swell is mostly small, around 3 ft to 3 ft, and while it’s a long-period groundswell from the SW (18-19 seconds), the wind just ruins it. The combined wave energy is moderate (530-836), but it doesn’t matter with that chop. There’s nothing to get excited about here.

We finally get a change in the wind pattern starting Wednesday, July 29th, with an onshore wind from the W and a bump in swell to 6 ft. The problem is that swell is short-period (8 seconds) and the conditions are still described as marginal. The combined energy hits 1066, which is a strong reading, but it’s a messy, short-windowed swell. It’s not clean. This pattern repeats on Thursday, July 30th, with a 6 ft WNW swell, but again, it’s a short period, onshore wind, and the surf quality is poor. Friday, July 31st, and the first weekend of August are much the same – small, short-period, and choppy.

The best the forecast has to offer, and I’m being honest, is a couple of mornings in the first week of August. On Monday, August 3rd, there’s a morning window with a light onshore breeze and a 6 ft WNW swell. The combined energy is 587 (moderate), and the period is a bit longer at 9 seconds. It’s still marginal, but it’s the cleanest the wind will be. Similarly, Tuesday, August 4th, morning has a light onshore wind with a 4 ft swell. It’s not great, but it’s the closest we get to a surfable window.

For the rest of the second week, from August 5th onwards, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at small waves, 1 ft to 4 ft, with a mix of cross-shore and onshore winds. The combined energy falls to weak levels (132-419). There’s a moment on Monday, August 10th, with a 5 ft WNW swell and a 11-second period, giving a moderate energy reading of 764, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, creating chop.

So, to be straight with you, there are no true standouts in this 16-day window. The consistent onshore and cross-onshore winds are the main problem, and the swell windows that do pop up are short-period and messy. For a spot like Mavericks, this is a blank run. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because things can change, but for now, I’d be finding something else to do. The conditions look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most of these days.

Rusty.

Read more