Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for Mavericks. Honestly, it's a tough stretch for the big wave spot. We're looking at a long run of poor surf conditions, so don't get your hopes up for anything epic in the near future.

Over the next 16 days, the water temperature is sitting at a very unusual 62.6°, which is 4.5° warmer than what's normal for this time of year. That’s a real standout, but it doesn't help the waves.

The first couple of days set the tone. Saturday the 8th has a tiny 1.6 ft SW swell with a crazy long 17-second period, but onshore west winds at 9 mph and a combined energy of just 270 are making it a complete washout. Sunday the 9th bumps up a bit to 4.6 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and we've got moderate energy (566), but cross-onshore wind and "marginal surf" tags mean it's not worth a paddle.

Monday the 10th through to Thursday the 15th is a real drag. We're seeing swell heights bouncing around 3.6 ft to 4.6 ft, mostly from the WNW, with periods of 8 to 10 seconds. The combined wave energy is moderate, sitting between 334 and 454, but it's all wasted. A constant cross-onshore breeze, ranging from light to a moderate 12 mph, is just chopping everything to bits. Every report is marked "poor surf conditions."

We finally see a shift on Friday the 14th, where a long-period 18-second swell from the SW shows up at 1.6 ft with energy of 315, but it’s a cross-shore wind and only considered "marginal." This pattern of tiny SW swells with very long periods and cross-onshore winds continues right through to the end of the period. Saturday the 22nd sees the swell bump up to 4.6 ft from the WNW with an 8-second period and 448 energy, but it's still a poor call.

There's really only one moment that stands out, and it's a conditional one. For the first half of the forecast, the most promising slot looks to be Sunday morning the 16th. We have a 3.0 ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period and light onshore wind. The combined energy is a solid 401. For a spot like Mavericks, that long period groundswell hitting the reef could set up some long, clean lines if the offshore breeze shows up. The light onshore wind is a worry, but it's the only "marginal" tag we see that might come together. But with a "rarely breaks" reputation and crowds that show up "sometimes," don't plan your trip around it.

For the rest of the run, with the constant cross-onshore wind and small to moderate swell, the setup actually looks more interesting for a kite surfer with those steady breezes than for a paddle surfer. It's a long, dry stretch for the big wave crew. As rusty as it gets.

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