Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Metric

Alright, let’s get into it. For the first few days, from Tuesday, August 18 through Friday, August 21, the surf is just not happening. The wave energy is weak in the 200s (220-246), and the wind is mostly a cross-onshore breeze, making everything choppy. It’s poor surf, plain and simple. You’re better off doing something else.

Then on Saturday, August 22, we finally get a tiny glimmer. The morning shows a 1.1m swell from the WNW with a short period of 8 seconds, light onshore wind, and the energy climbs to 227. The score is a "1", which is just marginal – it’s not great, but it’s the first thing we’ve got. The water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 17°, which is nice.

Sunday, August 23, starts with a 1.0m swell from the WNW, 8-second period, and light onshore wind. Energy is 254. The afternoon drops to a tiny 0.4m from the SW with a very long 18-second period, but the wind stays onshore. The short period WNW swell is just not going to shape up well, especially with the onshore breeze.

Monday, August 24, looks similar – tiny 0.4m SW swell, 18-second period, light onshore wind. The energy is in the 220s. It’s pretty dead.

The pattern doesn’t really improve. Tuesday, August 25, and Wednesday, August 26, keep the same story: small WNW swell, short period, and onshore or cross-onshore winds. The energy does bump up to 275-282, but the wind just kills it.

Now, Thursday, August 27, things start to get a bit more interesting for the experts. The morning swell is 1.5m from the WNW at 8 seconds, with a cross-onshore wind and energy at 425. The afternoon jumps to 1.7m, still WNW, 8 seconds, but the cross-onshore picks up to 20 km/h, and the energy spikes to 810. That’s moderate wave energy. But that wind is still a problem.

Friday, August 28, is the one standout for the big-wave crew. The morning shows 1.8m from the WNW, 8-second period, with a cross-onshore wind and energy hitting 1022 – that’s strong wave energy. The score is a "1", so it’s marginal, but if you’re an expert, this is the biggest swell of the window. The afternoon drops to 1.5m, but the energy is still 479. The wind is still cross-onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy. This is only for experts.

After that, it fades again. Saturday, August 29, has a 1.7m morning swell, but by the afternoon it’s back to tiny 0.6m SW groundswell. The energy drops. The rest of the run through September 2 is all small, short-period windswell, with cross-onshore winds making it choppy. The last day on Wednesday, September 2, has a 0.5m SW swell with a very long 19-second period and energy at 451, but the wind is a fresh 25 km/h cross-onshore – that’s messier than a kicked-up sandbar.

So, the honest truth? The only window that even looks close to okay for a paddle is the morning of Saturday, August 22, and even that’s marginal. If you’re an expert, the morning of Friday, August 28, has the biggest energy (1022) and a 1.8m swell, but it’s going to be a battle with the wind. For everyone else, it’s a long, flat wait. The swell direction from the WNW isn’t matching the optimum swell direction for the break, which is WNW, so that’s a plus on paper, but the wind is the story here. And for a spot like this, with a consistent break and crowds sometimes, the lack of clean conditions means it’s not worth the drive.

Rusty out.

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