Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break it down for you, this time in feet and Fahrenheit.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you. Looking at the next two weeks, Mavericks is in a serious slump. We've got a long, drawn-out stretch of poor conditions to start, so don't even bother paddling out for the first several days. It’s a tough run. The water is running much warmer than usual for this time of year, about 63°F, which is a big anomaly (5°F warmer than average), but that’s about the only excitement we’ve got.

Monday the 24th kicks things off with tiny, weak waves just over 1 foot from the SW, with a long period of 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, but there’s hardly any energy behind it (combined energy of 262). The wind is a cross-on mess from the SW at 6 mph, and it only gets worse through the day. Tuesday through Thursday, we’re still stuck in the doldrums with wind-affected, choppy conditions, and the swell barely reaches 2 to 3 feet. The period drops off badly, too – down to 6 seconds on Thursday, which is just pure wind chop. Not worth a look.

Friday the 28th morning, there’s a brief flicker. We see some onshore wind from the W at 6 mph and the swell jumps to about 5 feet from the NW, but with a short period of 8 seconds, it’s weak. The combined energy hits 617, which is solid, but the whole setup is “marginal” at best. The morning might offer a window, but the wind quickly swings back to a stiff cross-on from the NW at 16 mph. Saturday and Sunday are more of the same – lumpy, choppy, and not worth the drive.

The first week of September doesn’t bring much change. The swell stays small, between 2 and 3 feet, and the winds are mostly cross-on or onshore. You’ll see some SW groundswell with periods up to 19 seconds, but the energy is moderate (around 400-500 range), and the conditions just aren’t there. It’s frustrating, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Now, here’s the one and only standout across the whole outlook. On Tuesday the 8th of September, the stars finally align – briefly. The morning session looks glassy, with a light ESE breeze at 3 mph (glass). The swell is about 2 feet from the SW with a very long period of 19 seconds, and the combined energy is strong (543). That’s a proper groundswell pulse, and with glassy conditions, Mavericks could shape up nicely. But here’s the thing: this is a spot that’s consistent, but with such a long-period swell, it’s going to break big and straight at a beach break; this setup is best for a place like this reef. It’s not for beginners – 2 feet might sound small, but at Mavericks with that period, it packs a punch. The afternoon falls apart with a cross-shore wind picking up, and the whole run after that is back to poor. So, if you’re an expert, circle Tuesday September 8th morning. It’s the only moment of magic in a 16-day window full of dud days.

Trust me, I know how this feels. It’s a grim run, but a spot like Mavericks doesn’t stay flat forever. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, save your energy for that Tuesday morning session.

Rusty.

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