Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a proper look at what’s coming our way at Mavericks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a window of real power if you know what you’re doing.

The week kicks off on Thursday, July 30th, with not much to write home about. We’ve got a 3ft, 16-second SSW groundswell in the morning, but the wind is onshore from the WNW at 9 mph. The water’s sitting at a warm 61°, about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but the conditions are just marginal. The combined swell energy is weak at 612, and honestly, it’s not looking like a proper session. The afternoon clean-up never comes – the wind turns cross-onshore and the surf drops to 3ft. No good.

Friday the 31st is a write-off. Cross-onshore winds all day, with a choppy 6ft, 8-second windswell in the morning and a poor 4ft in the afternoon. The combined energy is moderate at 714, but the quality is just not there. Don’t bother.

We roll into the weekend, and Saturday, August 1st, is more of the same. The morning has a bit of a 5ft, 8-second swell, but it's onshore and messy. The afternoon gets worse with cross-onshore winds and a 6ft, 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 503, but it’s all choppy and poor. Not worth a paddle.

Sunday, August 2nd, is where things start to feel different. The morning brings a light breeze from the west at 6 mph, with a 6ft, 9-second WNW swell. It’s still onshore, so the surface isn’t epic, but you can feel the energy building – the combined energy sits at 702 (moderate). The afternoon is the real turn-up: the swell jumps to 8ft, 10-second period, with a combined energy of 1700 (strong). The wind is cross-onshore at 12 mph, which is a problem, but the size is there. That’s a heavy wave for experts only – over 8ft, so don’t even think about it if you’re not solid.

Monday, August 3rd, is the standout of the first week. The morning has a 6ft, 10-second WNW groundswell, with a gentle cross-shore from the SSW at 9 mph. The combined energy is 816 (moderate). The wind is variable, keeping it slightly bumpy, but the swell is clean enough. The afternoon glassed off a bit with a light onshore breeze from the west at 6 mph, and the swell dropped to 5ft. The morning is the best window – it’s the only time in the first week where the wind isn’t completely ruining it. This is the one to look at.

After Monday, the week falls off a cliff. Tuesday through to the end of the run is small, weak, and mostly cross-shore or cross-onshore. The swell dips to 5ft and below, with periods dropping to 8–9 seconds. The combined energy falls to 381 or lower. For a spot like Mavericks, that’s just not enough to get the reef working. There’s a gap of five days from Tuesday, August 4th through to Saturday, August 9th, where there’s nothing worth a drive.

Sunday, August 9th, is a dead end. The morning has a 2ft, 16-second novelty swell from the SSW, but the energy is only 327 (weak). The wind is light cross-onshore. It’s a lake.

The second week, from August 10th onward, is a flat spell. The swell is tiny, 2ft to 3ft, with periods that are all over the place – 14 to 18 seconds – but no size. The combined energy is mostly between 198 and 446 (weak to moderate). The wind is often cross-shore or cross-onshore, but it doesn’t matter because there’s no wave to ride. The water is still warm, but the surf is dead. If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross-shore wind on the 10th and 12th might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a no-go.

Bottom line: Monday, August 3rd morning is your only real shot at a clean, solid session at Mavericks in this 16-day window. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too big and messy. Get it while you can.

Rusty.

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