Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a shot in the arm for the region, but you’re gonna have to be patient. The next couple of weeks are a proper mixed bag, with a lot of small, messy days before a couple of interesting late-summer pulses show up. Water temp is sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a bonus.

The opening days are a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak swell – 1ft to 2ft from the SW, with cross-onshore or onshore winds. The combined energy is low, ranging from 135 to 158 (weak), and the wave comment says it plainly: poor surf conditions. Not worth wetting a wetsuit. That drags on through the 5th, 6th, and 7th of August.

We finally get a bit of a pulse rolling in on the morning of Sunday the 9th of August. Swell jumps to 5ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy hits 616 (moderate). The wind is onshore, though, flipping to cross-onshore in the afternoon, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. The wave comment is “marginal,” so keep your expectations in check. Monday the 10th through to the 15th is a constant grind of 4ft to 5ft WNW swell, but the wind is a problem – mostly cross-onshore or cross-shore, with a moderate breeze creating chop. The combined energy hovers between 278 and 508 (weak to moderate), but the wave comments are all “poor.” It’s not anywhere near what Mavericks needs.

There’s a bit of a long-period groundswell showing up on the morning of Friday the 14th of August – 1ft from the SSW with a period of 19 seconds is a tease, but it’s tiny and the wind is a moderate cross-shore. Not happening.

Now, the real standout comes in the second week. On Wednesday the 19th of August, we see a spike in size: 6ft from the WNW, but the period drops to 8 seconds. The combined energy is 847 (strong), but it’s a short-period wind swell, and the wind is a light cross-onshore. The wave comment is “marginal.” It’s a step in the right direction, but it’s not clean.

The true highlight on offer is Thursday the 20th of August. The morning session sees a 7ft swell from the WNW with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a hefty 1094 (strong to very strong). The wind is a light cross-onshore from the NW. Now, this is big. Over 8ft, it’s expert-only territory, but 7ft at Mavericks is serious. The problem is the short period – these wind swell lines are going to be a bit lumpy and won’t have the long, clean lines of a proper groundswell. The caveat is that short-period swell at a reef like this can still be powerful and sucky, but it’s more for the big-wave chargers. The wave comment is “marginal,” but it’s the best score we’ve got by a long shot. The afternoon drops off quickly to 5ft and the wind picks up to a moderate chop.

So, the one to circle is the morning of Thursday the 20th of August. It’s the biggest swell we see, and the wind is light, even if it’s cross-onshore. For the rest of the period, you’re looking at tiny, onshore slop. That big pulse on the 20th is the only time the energy gets into the four-digit range, and it’s the only time the wave quality is even considered “marginal” with a score of 2 out of 10. If you’re an expert, that’s your window. For everyone else, the forecast is a blank.

Rusty.

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