Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me have a look at what’s coming for our patch of coast.

Alright folks, let me level with you. I’m looking at Mavericks, a heavy, world-class reef break that demands respect. It’s an exposed spot that loves a solid WNW swell, but what I’m seeing on the charts for the next two and a half weeks is a pretty grim run, to be honest. The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 61°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – a real oddity, but it won't make up for the lack of quality surf.

We kick off on Monday morning, the 6th of July. There’s a tiny, long-period groundswell running (2 ft from the SW, 16 seconds), but it’s coming in with a cross-on breeze at 15 km/h. The combined wave energy is weak (356), and the conditions are poor. This is a complete no-go for a spot this demanding. There’s a stretch of nothing but poor or marginal conditions stretching from the 6th all the way through to the 22nd of July. That’s over two weeks of onshore winds, mostly cross-on, and a lot of short-period, weak WNW junk. For a spot that needs size and the right wind, this is a hard pass.

The only faint glimmer of potential I can see is around Wednesday morning, the 8th of July. The swell jumps a little, up to 3 ft, also from the SW with a 17-second period, and the combined energy pushes into a moderate range (1158). The problem? It’s still cross-on at 20 km/h. The forecast calls it “marginal,” and I’d agree – it’s not a day to paddle out at a spot this intense.

After that, the setup gets a bit bigger but stays ugly. By Thursday the 9th, we see a 6 ft to 6 ft swell from the WNW, but the period drops to a weak 9 seconds and the wind is a choppy cross-on at 20 km/h. The energy jumps to a strong 777, but with that short period and poor wind, it’s just a messy, closed-out lump. Not your day.

There is a brief window on Friday morning the 10th and Saturday morning the 11th where the wind goes ‘on’ (offshore) from the WSW or W at a light 10 km/h. The swell stays around 4 ft to 5 ft from the WNW, but the period is still a weak 8 seconds. The energy is moderate. While the wind direction is better, the short period makes for crumbly, weak waves at a break that demands power. It might be clean, but the actual wave quality on offer is still poor.

The rest of the run, from the 12th through to the 21st of July, is more of the same: moderate WNW swell, but always with a cross-on breeze (WNW or NW at 15 to 25 km/h) and short 8 to 9 second periods. The energy values are in the moderate to strong range, but with that persistent onshore wind, the surface will be choppy and the waves ugly.

Given this persistent onshore wind, small swell, and poor wave quality for a heavy, exposed reef, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the entire outlook period. There are no standouts. It’s a blank run, plain and simple.

Rusty.

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