Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a 16-day stretch for Mavericks, and honestly, it’s a tough one. The opening days are flat with a tiny, weak 2ft swell from the SW, but it’s a long-period 16-second groundswell. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 60° – just a bit above average for the time of year. The real problem is the wind. It’s cross-onshore, and the wave energy is weak (258). It’s just not going to be worth paddling out for.

Things don’t improve much as we head into Monday afternoon and Tuesday. The swell picks up a little to 3ft from the SSW, but the period drops to 14 seconds and the wind stays cross-onshore, messing up the surface. The combined energy climbs a bit (374-445), but it’s still choppy and poor. Wednesday and Thursday are more of the same – tiny, messy, and cross-onshore. Friday morning on the 24th of July brings a jump in period to 24 seconds, a very long-period groundswell, but it’s only 2ft. The energy is moderate (724), but the wind is still an issue. The end of the first week and start of the second week (July 25th to 28th) is a real letdown. The swell stays under 3ft, the period drops, and the wind just won’t cooperate. There’s a long gap of flat, poor conditions.

Then, on the 28th of July, we get a real change. The swell jumps to 6ft from the WNW, but it’s a short-period 9-second wind swell. The energy is strong (1093), but the wind is a stiff cross-onshore. This is a powerful, choppy mess. The next day, July 29th, sees the biggest swell of the outlook – 8ft from the WNW, also 9 seconds. The energy is very strong (1976). This is expert territory only; it’s too big for most. The wind is onshore, so it will be a wild, chaotic paddle. The 30th of July backs off to 5ft, still from the WNW, but the energy drops to moderate (684). The wind is variable, but the conditions are still marginal.

The last few days of the outlook (August 1st to 4th) are a real letdown. The swell fades quickly to 2ft and 2ft, with weak energy. The wind is light and cross-onshore, but there’s simply no swell to work with. The 3rd of August sees a pulse of 5ft from the NW, but it’s short-period (8 seconds) and cross-onshore, so it’s just another messy day.

Honestly, the standout here is the 29th of July. The 8ft WNW swell is a big, powerful beast, but it’s short-period and cross-onshore. That’s pure grunt, but it’s not clean. This setup is really more interesting for kite surfing than a traditional paddle session. For a surfer, you’re looking at a very long, frustrating stretch. The best you can hope for is the 29th if you’re an expert, but don’t expect any beauty. Keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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