Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty again. Let's talk about the next 16 days, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s grim. There isn’t one good day on the books for Mavericks. The whole run is a long stretch of onshore funk and weak, choppy waves.

Overall Pattern: We’re stuck under a persistent pattern of onshore and cross-onshore WNW winds. The swell energy is generally weak to moderate, with combined energy numbers mostly between 269 and 788, meaning small, crumbly waves. The only real muscle shows up on Thursday July 16 with a combined energy of 1631, but it’s still paired with a “marginal” report. The swell is mostly short-period WNW windswell of 8-9 seconds, which makes for weak, disorganized waves. Longer period groundswell from the SW sneaks in late in the run (after July 18) with periods up to 18 seconds, but the heights are tiny.

The First Days (July 8 – July 15): Wednesday July 8 is a total loss: 0.9m of SW groundswell at 18 seconds, but cross-on winds make it a choppy mess. Over the next week, swell builds to about 1.5m to 1.8m, but the wind rarely lets up – it’s cross-on or onshore the whole time, and the period is short. Thursday July 9 morning has a brief spell of onshore wind, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” and the score is a 1 out of 10. No good.

Mid-Range (July 16 – July 17): Thursday July 16 is the biggest swell: 2.3m from the WNW at 9 seconds. That’s over 8ft, so it’s for experts only. The combined energy is 1631, which is the strongest of the run. But it’s still cross-onshore with a choppy surface. Not clean, not inviting. The rest of the week is the same bumpy, low-quality story.

The Tail-End (July 18 – July 23): Swell drops to nearly nothing – 0.6m to 1.3m. There are some longer-period SSW swells (16-18 seconds) on July 19-20 and July 22, but with heights under 1m and such a long period, it will just fatten up and close out on the reef. The wind goes light or offshore on July 19-21, but you need wave height to surf, and there isn’t any.

The only standout: The morning of Thursday July 16 is the biggest, at 2.3m (about 8ft) and a combined energy of 1631. But with cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a raw, bumpy, expert-only mission. For clean, glassy lines – there’s nothing to find here.

Crowds at Mavericks are a “sometimes” thing, but I doubt you’ll see anyone else out in this mess. No word on water temp, but with conditions this poor, it doesn’t matter.

Just a long stretch of nothing. It won’t last forever – forecasts can turn around – but for now, the only thing breaking is your heart.

Rusty

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