Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight about Mavericks for the next couple of weeks. This is a big, heavy, exposed reef that needs a serious, clean, WNW-to-NW groundswell to show its teeth. Looking at this forecast, we’ve got a long dry spell before anything remotely rideable shows up. Most of the time, the wind is howling cross-on from the NW, and the swell is small, weak, and from the wrong direction. It’s a grim outlook for a spot this demanding.

We’re starting off with a real dud. Saturday the 22nd through the whole of the first week, and right into the start of September, it’s just one poor report after another. The waves are tiny—knee to waist high at best—with weak energy. The wind is almost always a messy cross-onshore, and the swell is coming from the SW or SSW, which isn't the optimum direction for this break. The combined swell energy is all over the shop, from a low 157 up to a moderate 655 on the 28th morning, but it’s still attached to poor conditions and crummy 8-second windswell. There's no point sugarcoating it; this stretch is a write-off. You’re looking at nearly two weeks of nothing worth paddling out for.

Finally, there’s a glimmer. On Friday morning, the 4th of September, things look like they could come together. The forecast shows a glassy, light SSW wind at 3 mph, which is about as clean as it gets. The swell is 3 ft from the SW at 18 seconds. That long-period groundswell has good energy behind it (655), which is what Mavericks needs to get those deep, heavy bowls. The only thing is, a SW direction isn't perfect for this spot, and a long-period SW swell can sometimes be a bit too straight for a beach break, but at a focused reef like this, it should wrap in nicely. That Friday morning window is the one to circle on the calendar. The crowd at Mavericks is *sometimes* an issue, but on a glassy morning with a decent pulse, expect a few other boats in the channel.

After that, the weekend of the 5th and 6th drops back off again with onshore winds and smaller, weaker energy. So, if you’re looking for a window, that Friday the 4th morning is your best, and really only, bet. The water is running much warmer than normal, so you can get away with a thinner suit.

Rusty

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