Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s coming up for Mavericks. I gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window is a tough one for us. The surf just isn't cooperating, and we’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions before we see anything worthwhile.

We kick off on Wednesday, July 22nd, with a small, long-period groundswell. The water is sitting at 60°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The buoys are showing a modest 2ft of swell from the SW, but with a long 15-second period that gives it some decent energy (428). The problem is the wind. We've got a gentle cross-shore breeze from the SSW, which is already putting a slight chop on the surface. It’s a bit of a tease, really. The forecast is calling it marginal at best, and I wouldn't be paddling out for this.

And then it gets worse. From Thursday, July 23rd, right through the end of the month, we are in a full-on slump. The wind goes cross-onshore from the NW, and it stays that way for days on end. The swell height barely moves, hovering around 2ft to 3ft, and the wave energy drops off a cliff. The forecasts are calling it poor surf, and honestly, it looks like a washing machine out there. This is a stretch where you’re better off doing anything else.

We get a slight uptick in energy around the 27th and 28th, with the combined energy reading hitting four digits (1090 and 1345), but it's still a messy, cross-onshore wind situation and the surf quality is just not there. The swell starts to increase in height as we head into August, but it’s a short-period, wind-affected swell, and the wind just won't let up.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Wednesday, August 5th. The wind finally swings around to the SSW, giving us a clean cross-shore breeze. The swell is building too, with a solid 7ft of WNW groundswell packing a serious punch (1253 combined energy). The period is 9 seconds, which isn't super long, but it's enough to get some good shape. This is the standout of the whole outlook. It’s a powerful swell, but at 7ft, it’s pushing into expert territory. This is a day for the experienced crew to get a real adrenaline fix at Mavericks. It’s still a couple of weeks out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s the one day that looks like it could really deliver.

The next morning, Thursday, August 6th, still has some size (5ft) but the wind strengthens and the quality drops off again. So, here’s the deal: the first week and a half is a write-off. The one real day to circle on your calendar is Wednesday, August 5th. It’s the only day where the wind and swell look like they’re going to line up for something special, but it’s for the big dogs only.

Rusty.

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