Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. I’m looking at the big fella, Mavericks.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you – the water temp is sitting at 60°F which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least the water won’t be a complete shock to the system.

The overall pattern for the next 16 days is a bit of a sad story, to be honest. We’re looking at a long, dry spell of poor surf conditions. From Monday the 13th through to Friday the 24th of July, it’s pretty much a write-off. The waves are there, but the quality is just not happening. You’ll see those scores are all zeros, and the comments are all “poor surf conditions”. The wind is mostly cross-onshore, or onshore, chopping everything up. There’s a bit of a tease on Wednesday the 15th with a 5ft swell that bumps the combined energy up to 604 (moderate wave energy), but it’s tagged as “marginal” and the wind is still an issue. Then on Thursday the 16th, we get a 7ft swell from the WNW with a massive 1080 combined energy (strong wave energy), but again, the cross-onshore wind just ruins it. That’s not a surfer’s wave, that’s a kite surfer’s dream. The setup at Mavericks is a reef, but with that wind and chop, it’s just not going to hold up.

There’s a glimmer of hope right at the end. On Saturday the 25th of July, we start to see a change. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is up to 680. The wind is onshore, but it’s a light breeze. It’s still marked as “marginal”, but it’s a step in the right direction. The afternoon picks up a bit with a 5ft swell and a 10-second period, energy at 743.

Then Sunday the 26th of July is where it gets a bit more interesting. The morning has a 6ft swell from the WNW, with a 10-second period and a combined energy of 990 (strong wave energy). The wind is onshore and light. This is the best-looking window in the whole forecast. For a spot like Mavericks, 6ft is a solid size, but it’s not insane. The wind is light and onshore, which is a massive positive because it’ll keep the surface clean. This is the one to circle. The afternoon on Sunday gets a bit more wind, turning cross-onshore, so the morning is definitely the pick.

After that, Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th fall back into the poor category, with cross-onshore winds and messy conditions.

So, to wrap it up: the first 12 days are a write-off. The standout is the morning of Sunday, 26th July. Get on that. It’s still a long way out, so it’s promising but not locked in. The forecast confidence for that far out is lower, so keep an eye on it. For a spot like Mavericks, it’s a rare and inconsistent break, so when a window like this appears, you’ve got to be ready. The crowds are “sometimes”, so you might have some company, but for a wave like that, it’s worth it.

Rusty.

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