Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long look at what Mavericks has cooking for us over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a waiting game for most of it. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, choppy, and pretty poor conditions before things might start getting interesting way out there.

The first entry we see is Friday the 21st of August, and honestly, it's not the start we want. The swell is tiny, around 1ft to 2ft, coming from the West and Southwest, but the wind is a cross-onshore breeze from the Northwest at 12 mph. That combo is just making a mess – the wave energy is weak, and the conditions are poor. This flat, choppy pattern clings on for the rest of August. We get some glassy conditions on Sunday the 23rd with an offshore wind, but the swell is still barely there at 1ft to 3ft, and the forecast for Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th is more of the same weak, cross-onshore slop. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

There’s a slight bump in energy towards the end of the month – Wednesday the 26th sees the combined swell energy climb into the moderate range, but the swell is still small and the cross-onshore wind just chops it all up. Thursday the 27th is a similar story. Nothing worth paddling out for here, folks.

Now, come Friday the 28th of August, we get a bit of a change. The wind goes light and offshore from the West at 6 mph, and the swell picks up to 5ft from the Northwest with an 8-second period. The energy is there, but it’s still tagged as marginal. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th see more cross-onshore wind kicking in, though there is some solid energy in the water from a long-period Southwest swell (18 seconds) on Saturday morning. But that wind... it’s ruining it.

We hit a dry spell from the start of September. Monday the 1st through to Thursday the 5th is a real mix. The swell starts to build, getting up to 8ft with strong energy, but it’s almost always accompanied by that cross-onshore wind. The few windows with light offshore winds are tagged as marginal at best. The swell direction is mostly WNW, which is good for Mavericks, but the wave quality is just not there.

The one true standout on this whole forecast is Wednesday morning, September the 2nd. The morning shows a light offshore wind from the West at 6 mph, and the swell is a solid 8ft from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds. That’s a powerful combo with very strong wave energy. The wind is light, the swell is good direction, and it's plenty of size. A morning like that could be the best on offer, but it won’t be for beginners – anything over 5ft is getting tricky, and 8ft is pushing into advanced territory. Later that afternoon, the wind swings cross-onshore again and messes it up. Thursday the 3rd also has a promising morning with a 7ft groundswell and a gentle cross-onshore breeze, but the afternoon gets messy.

The second week is also a bit of a gamble. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th of September continue with that pattern of a solid, consistent swell from the WNW, but it’s always fighting some cross-onshore wind. It's a tease, really. The energy is there, the size is there, but the wind just won't cooperate perfectly for a long period.

So, if you’re an expert, keep your eye on Wednesday the 2nd of September. That morning window with the light offshore breeze and solid 8ft groundswell from the WNW looks like the only real chance for a clean, heavy session at Mavericks. Everything else in this 16-day window is either flat or a choppy mess. Don’t get your hopes up for the rest of it.

Stay patient.
Rusty.

Read more