Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's cut to the chase: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and ugly. There's a big dry spell at the start, so if you're hoping to get wet soon, you're going to be waiting a while. The one silver lining is that a spot this consistent doesn't stay this quiet for long, and these forecasts can turn on a dime.

The charts are showing a whole lot of onshore wind and poor conditions. The first sign of any real energy doesn't show up until Tuesday, August 18th. That morning, the swell jumps to about 6ft at 8 seconds. That short period means it'll be junky and walled-up. The wave energy is moderate at (819), but with the cross-onshore breeze, it'll be lumpy. The afternoon backs off a bit and the wind gets worse, so that day is a washout.

Wednesday the 19th brings another pulse of about 5ft, but the period is still a short 8 seconds. The morning wind is light onshore, giving it a little more shape, but it's still not going to be pretty. If you're desperate, you might find a few corners, but the quality is poor.

Our best shot in the first week comes on Thursday, August 20th. The swell is around 4ft, but the period stretches out to 11 seconds. That’s a legitimate groundswell, and the energy is moderate at (520). The wind is still onshore, but it's light. For an exposed spot like Mavericks, this is the cleanest it’s going to get. It’s still a marginal call, but it's the closest thing to a real surf we've got.

After that, it backs off again. We get some long-period south-southwest swell sneaking in, but the onshore wind kills any chance of clean waves. The energy drops right out, and this poor run continues through the weekend and into the next week.

Near the end of the period, around Thursday, August 27th and Friday, August 28th, we see some more size. The swell builds back to 5ft to 5ft, but the period is short, only 8 to 9 seconds. The energy is moderate, hitting 447 and 538 on those days. But here's the catch: the winds are forecast to be cross-onshore and fresh. It's going to be a choppy, wind-blown mess. At that size and with that wind, this is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing one.

So, the bottom line is there’s no standout day. If you're forced to pick, Thursday morning, August 20th, looks like your best bet. It has the best mix of size, period, and the lightest wind, but it's still a gamble. That long-range stuff near the end of the month is promising in size, but the wind will probably ruin it. For beginners, this whole two weeks is a no-go. For the rest of you, patience is key.

Keep your head up, the surf will come back.

Rusty.

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