Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s happening. We’re looking at a long stretch for Mavericks, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a tough outlook. The next 16 days are a real test of patience. There are no good surf options on offer for the vast majority of this period. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly messy, and the consistency just isn't there for a proper paddle session. You’re looking at a long, dry gap of about 10 days where the surf is basically flat or junk.

The first real whisper of something interesting doesn’t show up until Friday, September 8th, and even then it’s a tease. Let’s break it down.

For the first week and a half, from now through the end of August and into early September, it’s a write-off. We’ve got these tiny little swells from the SSW, mostly under 3 ft, but the wind is cross-on or onshore from the NNW and NW, blowing at 12 to 13 mph. That’s just choppy, blown-out slop. The water temp is sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s the only interesting thing about it. The combined energy figures are all over the place, but mostly in the low-to-mid hundreds, peaking at 942 on the 29th, but with onshore wind, it’s just a mushy, bumpy mess. Not worth paddling out for.

Around the 4th of September, there’s a slight uptick on Friday morning with a 4 ft swell from the WNW, but the period is a short 12 seconds, and the wind is still onshore. The combined energy hits 684, which is moderate, but the conditions are still marginal. This is not the standout.

The one true standout, the only window that looks worth a damn, is the morning of Tuesday, September 8th. We’ve got glassy conditions. The wind is from the SW at only 3 mph, and it’s described as "glass." That’s as clean as it gets. The swell is a small 2 ft from the SSW, with a period of 13 seconds. The combined energy is a modest 270, so it’s not a powerhouse, but for a spot like Mavericks, you need it clean. This is a break for experts only, and it’s a reef, so it’s exposed. The swell direction from the SSW isn’t its optimum (which is WNW), but with glassy conditions, a long-period groundswell like this will have some shape and energy. You’ll get long waits between sets, but when they come, they’ll have some push. This is your best bet, but it’s small, so don’t expect a big day.

After that, it’s back to the grind. The rest of the forecast shows more cross-onshore wind and tiny, poor surf. The 9th of September has a 3 ft WNW swell, but the period is short at 10 seconds, and it’s a cross-onshore wind. Not great.

So, to sum it up from a local’s perspective: don’t even bother checking the buoys for the next 10 days. The surf is flat and blown out. Mark your calendar for the morning of Tuesday, September 8th. If you’re an expert and you’ve got the patience for a small, glassy, long-period swell, Mavericks might just give you a clean, quiet session. But it’s a long wait for a small window.

Rusty.

Read more