Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cooking for Mavericks over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are a tough watch for paddle surfing. The first real chance to even think about a wave comes on Sunday, August 2nd, but it’s a marginal call. We’ve got a slow start.

The overall pattern is dominated by a lot of cross-onshore wind and choppy, messy conditions. The energy is there, but it’s not cooperating. For the first few days, from Friday the 31st right through Saturday the 1st, it’s a write-off. The wind is either cross-on or straight onshore, and the surf is just poor. You’re looking at a lot of chop and small, weak waves.

Now, Sunday morning, August 2nd, shows a bit of a pulse. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WNW, with a 9-second period, and the wind is swinging directly onshore from the west at 6 mph. The combined energy reads a moderate 704, which is something. The call is marginal, not a total loss, but don’t expect perfection. The wave state is unknown, which for a spot like this usually means it’s a bit of a gamble. The afternoon bumps up to a 8 ft WNW swell with a 10-second period and a massive 1659 combined energy, but the wind turns cross-on again and it’s choppy. That’s a swing and a miss.

The best the whole forecast has to offer is early Monday morning, August 3rd. It’s a light cross-shore breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, with a 6 ft, 10-second WNW swell. The energy is solid at 831. The wind is light, which is a big deal for a place like Mavericks, but it’s a cross-shore, not a clean offshore. The report says "light cross-shore with small crossing wind ripples." It’s not perfect, but compared to the rest of the window, it’s the standout. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, that Monday morning window is your only real shot. After that, it’s a long, slow fade into the second week.

From Tuesday the 4th onward, the swell drops and the wind stays unfriendly. The second week, from around the 5th to the 15th of August, is a total bust. The swell heights drop to under 3 ft, and often below 2 ft, with very long periods from the south-west. This is a classic case of a “groundswell” that’s too long and too weak to wrap into the bay properly. The combined energy values are all in the 100s and 200s, which is weak. The water temperature isn’t noted in the data, so we’ll skip that.

For a spot that’s "consistent" and exposed, this is a pretty blank run. It’s a reminder that even the best reefs can go quiet. The setup is not looking good for paddle surfing at all. With the persistent cross-onshore winds and the small, weak swell, the whole thing looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a paddle surfer.

Keep watching the charts, but for now, it’s time to wax the car, not the board.

Rusty

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