Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the 16-day window is looking pretty grim for any kind of proper surf. We’ve got a solid stretch of small, weak waves and less-than-ideal winds for the most part. The first week is basically a write-off if you’re chasing anything with real push. You’re looking at a lot of knee-to-waist high slop, a lot of cross-onshore breezes chopping it up, and just a general lack of energy. The swell energy is there in numbers, but it’s mostly short-period windswell, not the clean, lined-up groundswell we want.

The only real standout in the whole period is early on, on the morning of Sunday the 16th. The swell is still small, but the direction is right (SW), and it’s a long-period groundswell at 16 seconds, which is the kind of energy that can wrap into the break properly. The wind is light and offshore, so the surface is going to be clean, even if the size is small. That makes it the best bet for a paddle, even if you’re not going to be getting barreled. Energy is moderate at 376.

Now, for the rest of that first week, it’s pretty poor. Monday through Saturday there’s not much to get excited about. We see that swell direction swinging to WNW and NW, and with the wind coming from those directions, it’s just going to be a messy, blown-out mess. The period drops off into that short 7-8 second range, which is just not going to offer any real shape at a spot like this. The energy numbers get higher, 542 to 693, but that’s all that short-period chop, and it’s not going to translate to quality. That’s more of a washing machine than a wave. Honestly, with that significant swell and poor quality, it might be more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

A week from today, there’s a real drop-off. The size fades to pretty much nothing, and the energy plummets. We’re into long-period (18-second) swells, but they’ve got no size behind them. The wind is onshore, and it’s all just a big flat, glassy lake. That’s a stretch of a few days, from the 23rd to the 26th, where you wouldn’t even bother bringing your board.

Then, the last few days of the month, the 29th, 30th, and 31st, you see that low-energy stuff start to creep back. It’s still small, but the period is decent (15-17 seconds) and the wind is more favorable in the mornings – light and sometimes offshore. It’s promising but less certain that far out, but if the swell direction holds from the SW, it could be the beginning of something better. But for now, if you’re chasing a wave, your best shot is that early call on the morning of the 16th.

The water temp is 61°F, which is a bit warmer than usual for this time of year. It’s not crazy, but you can feel that little bit of extra warmth in the water.

Signing off,

Rusty

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