Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Mavericks we’re talking about, a world-class, heavy-duty reef out in Northern California. It’s an exposed, consistent spot that needs a serious, long-period swell from the west-northwest to really fire. Right now, we’re looking at a pretty quiet 16-day window, with no real standout sessions. The water is sitting at 63°, which is a wild 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a big anomaly, feels like summer hung on a bit too long.

We start off on Tuesday the 25th of August, and it’s a bit of a non-starter. We’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the southwest with a long 16-second period, but it’s being chopped up by a moderate cross-onshore breeze out of the northwest. Wave energy is moderate (260), but the conditions are poor, and the score is a flat zero. That theme sticks around for the next several days. The wind is constantly cross-onshore or onshore, messing up what little swell there is.

Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th are more of the same: small southwest swells, poor wind, and choppy surf. On Thursday, the swell direction swings to the west-northwest, but the period drops to a short, weak 6-7 seconds, and the wind is still a problem. The energy is still moderate (200-296), but the quality is just not there. Friday the 28th sees a bit more energy, climbing to 477, but again, it’s a messy, cross-onshore situation.

We finally get a tiny glimmer on Saturday the 29th of August. The morning shows a 3ft southwest swell, with an 18-second period, and the wind switches to a light offshore from the west-northwest. The energy bumps up to a solid 645. The report calls it marginal, but that offshore wind is a major positive. This is the only real window where the paddle out might be clean, but the swell height is still very small for a beast like Mavericks. The afternoon gets ruined by the wind picking up again.

The rest of the first week and into the second is a total write-off. Sunday the 30th has more energy (772) but the wind is cross-onshore again. Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st of September slip back into the doldrums with weak swells and poor conditions. The pattern of light, cross-onshore winds and small, choppy surf continues through the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

Things get a little more interesting on the 4th and 5th of September. The wind shifts to cross-shore from the south, which is a slight improvement, but the swell is still small (2-3ft) and the energy is moderate (426-579). The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so likely there will be a few locals out. But the surf is still poor, with a cross-chop, and the score is 1 or 0. Not worth the drive.

The only real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September. We finally see a bit of size: a 5ft swell from the west-northwest with a 9-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the south-southwest. The energy is a strong 517. It’s still marginal, but it’s the biggest swell in the forecast. It’s going to be a bit lumpy, but for a big-wave spot, this is technically the best window. The score is a 2 out of 10, which tells you it’s still not great. The 6ft swell in the afternoon is too big for the wind to handle, and the onshore flow kills it.

Bottom line: it’s a lean 16 days for Mavericks. The only one that’s worth a look is Saturday the 29th of August for the rare offshore wind, or Tuesday the 8th of September for the biggest swell. Don’t expect any barrels. This is a period where the forecast can change, so keep an eye on it, but as it stands, it’s mostly a flat, choppy mess.

Rusty

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