Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The outlook for the next couple of weeks is a tricky one. The first few days are a write-off, but there’s a flicker of something promising further out, especially for the more experienced crew.

Right now, into Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th of July, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got a weak, cross-onshore wind messing up the surface and the swell is tiny, around 2ft to 3ft. The water is much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 62°, but that doesn’t help the fact that it’s choppy and poor. The combined wave energy is moderate (654), but it’s just not doing anything for us.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are more of the same. The swell ticks up just a hair to 3ft, but the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore from the NW, keeping it choppy and messy. The energy is moderate (852-876), but it’s all short-period junk, making for a bumpy, unsatisfying paddle. Not worth the wetsuit.

We get a tiny glimmer of hope on Wednesday the 29th of July. The wind swings to a light onshore, cleaning it up a bit underneath the surface. But the swell is weak, 3ft, and it’s a marginal forecast. The energy is moderate (695), but it’s still a tough call.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Thursday the 30th of July, a pulse of short-period WNW swell arrives. The morning sees a 7ft swell with a light onshore wind, and the energy jumps to 1170 (strong). The problem is the period is only 8 seconds, so it’s going to be a lumpy, fat mess at *Mavericks*. It’s an exposed reef, but that short period won’t produce the clean, powerful lines we need. It’s marginal at best, and really only for the advanced crew. The afternoon gets choppy again.

The next few days, from the 31st through to the 2nd of August, are a frustrating mix of marginal and poor. We see a 6ft to 7ft WNW swell rolling in on the 1st and 2nd, with the energy hitting 1504 on Sunday the 2nd afternoon. That’s strong wave energy, but the winds are all over the place – from light cross-onshore to onshore. The period is still short, between 8 and 9 seconds, so it’s going to be a lumpy, bumpy affair. The best of these is probably the morning of the 2nd, with a 6ft swell and light cross-onshore, but it’s still only a marginal call.

From Monday the 3rd of August onwards, the swell drops off and the wind shifts to a steady cross-shore or cross-onshore from the SSW. The height hangs around 3ft to 4ft, and the energy drops back to weak to moderate (226-355). The period improves slightly, getting up to 10 seconds, but the wind keeps it all a bit rough and not worth the drive. The highlight of this whole period is a tough one, but I’d point to the morning of Thursday the 30th of July. That 7ft WNW swell, while short-period, is the biggest and most energetic wave we’ll see. The onshore wind is light, but it’s still onshore, so don’t expect perfection. It’s a big, powerful, lumpy swell for experts only. The water is much warmer than average, but that’s a minor detail when the waves are this challenging.

For the rest of the second week, into the 9th of August, it’s a consistent run of poor conditions. The swell is small, 3ft to 4ft, with a moderate cross-onshore wind. The energy is weak. It’s a flat spell, and the forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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