Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it. We've got a 16-day window on the table, and I'll be straight with you – it's a frustrating one at Mavericks (Half Moon Bay). The pattern is looking bleak for a long stretch, with a lot of poor conditions and marginal windows that never quite come together. We're looking at a big gap of several days with no real recommendations, so patience is the name of the game.

Kicking off on Tuesday, July 14th, we have a tiny 3ft swell from the WNW. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 60°. The morning has light west wind, but the whole day is marred by poor surf conditions. The wave energy is moderate, around 230, but it's not translating to anything rideable.

Wednesday the 15th sees a bump in swell to 5ft, but it's still short-period at 8 seconds and the wind is cross-onshore, making a mess of things. The energy jumps up to 609, but with a "marginal" tag, it's not worth getting excited about. This same story basically repeats through Thursday and Friday – a little more size, but the wind is always on it, keeping the scores at zero. It's a classic case of a break that needs a lot of things to line up.

Saturday the 18th, the swell drops right off to a tiny 2ft from the SW, but the period jumps to 17 seconds. That's a long-period groundswell, but with so little height, it's just a non-event. The energy is still moderate at 484, but the reports say "poor surf conditions." This small, long-period SW swell dribbles in for the next several days, and we're looking at a stretch from Sunday the 19th all the way through to Friday the 24th where there's simply nothing on offer. That's a big gap of six days with no recommendations.

Now, here's where it gets a little interesting. On Saturday, July 25th, we see a change. The morning brings a 2ft SW swell with a very long period of 21 seconds, and the energy is cranking up to 799. The wind is light and onshore, but it's still tagged as "marginal." The afternoon brings a shift: a 5ft WNW swell arrives, but it's short-period at 8 seconds. The energy is still high at 791. These are the only two glimmers in the whole run.

The best of the best, and the only true standout, is Sunday, July 26th. It's a promising but less certain long-range call. The morning shows a 3ft SW swell with a very long period of 20 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 1064. The wind is a light cross-onshore from the SSW. This is a classic setup for a big-wave spot like Mavericks – a long-period groundswell from the southwest. With a point break and reef setup, this long period will actually be a plus, drawing in clean, powerful lines. The period over 15 seconds means the waves will have serious energy and shape, but the sets will be very spaced out, giving you time to paddle back out. It's a high-risk, high-reward window. The water is still a touch warmer than average, about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year.

The rest of the week after that drops back into the small, messy SW swell pattern again, with no more recommendations. So, if you're a dedicated big-wave charger, circle July 26th on your calendar. For everyone else, it's a long wait.

Rusty out.

Read more