Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's be straight with you: it's gonna be a tough slog for most of the next two and a half weeks out there on the water. We're looking at a big quiet patch before we get any real hope.

The swell energy is all over the place but mostly low. The only spot on the list is Mavericks, and it's got a long, frustrating wait ahead.

The season's hanging on, but it feels like a holding pattern for the next week.

Days 1–4 (Sept 15–18): Honestly, forget it. The first few days are a write-off. Surf is small and onshore. Tuesday morning sees some 5 ft WNW swell coming in at 8 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-on. It's weak and lumpy energy (372). Water's 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only positive. The rest of this block is even worse – heights drop to 2 ft, periods are long but the wind is either cross-on or onshore. It's just messy.

Days 5–8 (Sept 19–22): Still a struggle. The weekend is poor. Saturday morning has a tiny 2 ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds, but cross-on winds and weak energy (301) make it a non-starter. Sunday morning offers a brief chance: a 5 ft NW swell (7 seconds) with onshore wind – marginal at best. The combined energy is moderate (548), but the short period and onshore breeze will ruin it. Not one for the log.

Days 9–12 (Sept 23–26): Now we're talking, but only for a moment. Wednesday the 23rd is the standout. The morning brings a clean 4 ft WNW swell (11 seconds) with a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE. This is the cleanest window we've seen – proper lines, moderate wave energy (526). It’s a wind-swell setup but manageable. The afternoon glass off is even better: 3 ft WNW at 10 seconds, glassy conditions, but the swell is dropping. This is the best on offer. After that, it's back to small onshore dribble through the rest of the week.

Days 13–16 (Sept 27–30): The long-range promise. The last few days of the month start to build again. Tuesday the 29th morning has a 5 ft WNW at 8 seconds, but it’s onshore and weak (576). Then Wednesday the 30th morning is the big one – a solid 6 ft WNW groundswell (11 seconds) with a light cross-on breeze. The combined energy is strong at 1009, and this is a powerful swell for the break, but the wind is a question mark. For experts only if it holds. The afternoon is too small and choppy.

The takeaway: If you have to surf, make it the morning of Wednesday, September 23. That's the cleanest, most surfable window. The Wednesday the 30th morning looks promising but it's a long way off and the wind could kill it. Don't bother before the 23rd unless you like closeouts and spray.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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