Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Mavericks over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, looking at this 16-day window, it’s a bit of a rough stretch. The surf is mostly small and choppy for the first week and a half, with almost nothing worth paddling for. There’s a real quiet spell from now until the end of August, with just tiny, messy swells and those persistent cross-offshore winds that have the place looking like a washing machine. It’s only in the final few days of the forecast – from the very start of September onward – that we start to see a pulse of energy that might get the heart rate up.

Let's break it down.

Thursday 20th through to Saturday 22nd August: Forget it. We’re talking ankle to knee-high slop at best, with a combined energy around 282 (weak), blowing out from the NW. It’s poor surf conditions through and through. Not a single session worth scratching a board for.

Sunday 23rd to Wednesday 26th August: We get a little bump of swell, around 3 ft to 4 ft from the WNW with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy starts to climb (303 to 371), which is low-moderate. The winds stay cross-shore or onshore, so it’s still fairly messy. It’s ‘marginal’ at best – maybe a logged session if you’re desperate, but it’s not going to be a memory.

Thursday 27th to Friday 28th August: Now we’re talking. The swell builds to 5 ft to 5 ft from the WNW, but the period is still a short 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps into the moderate zone (377 up to 897). The problem is the wind – it’s cross-on and moderate, turning the ocean into chop. It’s more of a torture session than a treat. The size is getting into tricky territory for beginners (over 5 ft), so only the experienced guys will want to tackle this mess.

Saturday 29th to Monday 31st August: The swell drops back slightly, with mixed directions. The energy is still moderate (723 down to 290) but the quality is poor. That persistent NW cross-wind ruins any chance of a clean wave.

Tuesday 1st September: The wind stays cross-on and the swell is a jumbly 5 ft from the NW with a short 7-second period. Combined energy is moderate (500). Honestly, it still looks like a kite-surfing day for the most part.

Wednesday 2nd September to Friday 4th September: This is the closest thing we’ve got to a standout. The swell stays in the 3 ft to 5 ft range from the WNW, with the period finally starting to reach 10 seconds. The combined energy hits 623 on the Wednesday (strong-moderate). But the key detail: the wind swings around to a light westerly or even southwesterly, giving us a light cross-onshore breeze that is a huge improvement over the previous week. It’s still not perfectly clean, but it’s the best we’ve seen. Friday morning looks the pick – a slight 3 mph southwesterly wind, a 4 ft WNW swell, and the lowest wind of the whole run. It’s a marginal call, but compared to the rest of the outlook, this is your window. Mavericks needs big, clean groundswell to fire, and this isn’t that, but for a sneaky session where you might get a few manageable walls, get on it.

In short: The first 11 days are a write-off. The last 5 days offer a glimpse of hope, but the quality is still low. The best chance for a paddle is the morning of Friday 4th September.

Keep your expectations low, but the board waxed.

Rusty.

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