Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long look at what we've got on the table for Mavericks. Straight up, this is a tough stretch for paddle surfing. The water is running about 64°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing your arse off waiting for something to happen.

We're looking at a pretty grim run right out of the gate. From Saturday the 12th all the way through to the following Friday the 18th, it's a write-off. The swell is tiny or totally junky with cross-onshore winds making a mess of things. The combined energy is moderate at best, peaking around 321 on Saturday, but with poor conditions, it's not worth suiting up. You’d be better off going for a fish than a surfboard through this whole first week.

The first real glimmer of hope, and I mean a tiny glimmer, shows up on Tuesday the 15th morning. We've got a 5 ft swell from the WNW with a short 8-second period. The combined energy is still moderate at 378. It's marginal at best due to questionable tide conditions, and the wind is a light cross-onshore. It's not good, but compared to everything before it, it's the least bad option. By Tuesday afternoon, it drops back to 4 ft.

The pattern stays marginal and weak right through to the end of the second week. There's nothing that stands out as a true standout. The only period that might get your heart beating a little faster is around Sunday the 20th. We see a jump in swell to 5 ft from the NW, but again the period is a short 7 seconds, and it's cross-onshore. The combined energy climbs to 643, which is moderate, but the wind will ruin it. It’s a glimpse of something better, but it’s not going to deliver.

Further out, on Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd, we get some 5 ft to 5 ft WNW swell with a slightly better 9-second period. The energy is getting stronger, hitting 825 on Tuesday afternoon. Light offshore winds show up on the Tuesday afternoon, which is the best wind call in the whole forecast. This is the closest we get to a decent window, but it’s still only rated as marginal. For a spot like Mavericks, you need a lot more power and a cleaner wind angle to make it truly special. Without the right conditions, this heavy reef is a dangerous place to be.

Between Tuesday the 15th and Thursday the 24th, there are no days that offer a clean, powerful, and well-windowed swell. Because the breaks are exposed to a WNW swell, and we're getting a lot of cross and cross-onshore wind from the NW and SW, it never lines up perfectly.

If you are an expert and you have to get wet, the Tuesday the 22nd afternoon with the light offshore is your best, and honestly, only real shot in this entire 16-day window. But don't expect perfection. For everyone else, leave the big-gun board in the car and go do something else. The forecast can always flip, but right now, this is a long, flat, and frustrating run for Mavericks.

Signing off,
Rusty

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