Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Straight up, looking at this 16-day window for Mavericks, and I gotta be honest with you – it's a tough one. We're staring down a pretty grim stretch. The word on the street is that for the early part of this forecast, there’s just nothing doing. The surf is poor, the wind is a mess, and it's going to be a long wait for anything that even looks like a wave worth paddling for.

We’re looking at a solid gap of, well, basically the entire first week. From Thursday the 23rd right through to Tuesday the 29th of July, the conditions are just plain awful. The wind is mostly a moderate cross-onshore breeze, chopping everything up, and the swell is small and weak. The combined wave energy is mostly in the low hundreds (250 to 887), which is pretty weak. You’d be better off taking the week off. The water temp is sitting at 60°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's the only nice thing I can say.

Now, the first real flicker of hope comes on Wednesday the 30th of July. The wind shifts to a light offshore breeze from the WNW, and the swell starts to show a pulse. It’s a short period, only 8 seconds, but the swell height is 6ft from the WNW. The combined energy kicks up to 946 (moderate). It’s labelled as "marginal," which is a far cry from perfect, but it's the best we've seen. The size is manageable for most.

Then, Friday the 1st of August morning offers a brief moment. The wind goes light offshore from the WSW at just 3 mph, with a 4ft WNW swell. That light wind is a major positive, promising cleanish conditions. But the period is still short (8 seconds) and the energy is dropping (357). It’s a window, not a session.

The rest of the first week of August just keeps the same story going. The wind is mostly cross-onshore, and the swell, while picking up a bit in height (hitting 7ft on the 2nd of August), is still short period and messy. When the swell hits 7ft, that’s a size that’s really only for the experienced crew, and with the poor conditions, it’s a pass.

For the second week, the outlook doesn't get much better. The swell direction stays WNW, but the wind never really gets clean. The only real standout, if you can call it that, is slight improvement on the morning of August 6th and 7th. On the 6th, we see a 6ft WNW swell with a period of 10 seconds and a light cross-onshore wind. The energy is moderate (587). On the 7th, the wind goes light and onshore from the W, with a 5ft WNW swell. It's still not good, but it's the least bad of the bunch.

Honestly, for this entire 16-day run, I wouldn't point you to a single standout. The break is an exposed reef, and the optimum swell direction is WNW, which we do get, but the wind just ruins it every time. It’s consistently cross-onshore or onshore with a moderate breeze. The crowd profile says "sometimes" busy, but with this forecast, I doubt you'll see many people out. There is simply no period where the quality of the swell, the wind, and the period come together. If you're a kite surfer, the strong, consistent cross-onshore winds and some decent swell heights might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a write-off.

Keep an eye on the forecasts, things can change. But for now, save your energy.

Rusty.

Read more