Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what Mavericks is serving up over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough outlook for this big-wave slab. Buckle up.

The overall pattern for the next 16 days is frustrating. There’s a lot of energy in the water, and the swell direction is mostly out of the WNW which is dead-on optimum for this place, but the wind is the villain here. We’ve got persistent onshore and cross-onshore winds messing up what could be some solid groundswell pulses. The water temp is sitting at 61°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a very unusual anomaly, so you’ll be comfortable in a spring suit.

We don’t get any good surf until Wednesday, July 8th, and even then it’s just a marginal call. The first proper event worth talking about kicks off on Thursday, July 9th. The morning sees a solid 7 ft swell from the WNW, but the period is a short 9 seconds – that’s windswell, not a clean groundswell. The combined energy is beefy (1588), but it’s blown out. The wind is onshore, making it a messy session. By the afternoon, it gets worse with a gusty 16 mph cross-onshore from the NW. This swell is over 5 ft, so it’s too much for beginners, and at 7 ft+, it’s really only for experts even on a good day. On a day like this, it’s more of a drill than a thrill.

Friday, July 10th offers the most potential, but it’s still not a standout. Thursday morning’s swell drops to 6 ft from the WNW, with a short 9-second period. The wind is onshore again. The wave energy is moderate (639). It’s marginal. You might get a couple, but don’t expect the walls of water this place is famous for. The rest of the week and into the next is a washout of poor conditions, with small surf (2 ft to 5 ft) and constant onshore wind.

Given the relentless poor surf quality flagged for almost every session, there is no true standout in this 16-day window at Mavericks. The best you can hope for is a marginal session on Thursday or Friday morning for experts only, but the wind is going to make it ugly. For the majority of this period, the combo of strong wind, small to moderate swell, and the exposed reef setup here looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle surf. Keep your eyes on the charts; it’s a blank run for now.

Rusty.

Read more