Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about the surf. The next 16 days are a bit of a slow burn. The first week is mostly flat and messy, with nothing to get excited about. The water’s running at 60°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

The main spot on the radar is Mavericks (Half Moon Bay). It’s a consistent, exposed reef that’s built for big stuff, but you won’t see that for a while. From Saturday the 18th through the end of the week, the swell is tiny – just 2ft to 3ft from the SW. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross-on or onshore, and the energy is weak (429 to 453). Not worth your time. Sunday the 19th has a little more energy in the afternoon (509), but the wind is still on and the surf is marginal.

The next few days are the same story: small, weak, and choppy. Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd have a bit more energy (379-453), but the wind is cross-on and the swell is still tiny. By Thursday the 23rd, the wind picks up to a moderate breeze, making it choppy. Not good.

Now, there’s a shift around the end of the first week. Friday the 24th, the swell period jumps to 24 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. The energy bumps up to 632 in the morning and 706 in the afternoon, but the swell is still only 2ft. The wind is on in the morning and cross-on in the afternoon. Still marginal. Saturday the 25th has higher energy (742), but the wind is onshore and the swell is small.

The real change comes on Monday the 27th. The swell picks up to 3ft from the SW, with a period of 18 seconds and strong energy (1148). The morning has light onshore wind, but it’s marginal. Tuesday the 28th sees the swell at 3ft, with energy at 1084, but the wind is cross-on from the NW.

Then, on Wednesday the 29th of July, we get a proper shot. The swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds. The energy is massive (2303), but it’s a short-period swell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy. The wind is onshore in the morning with a light breeze, which could give you clean faces. This is for experts only – 8ft at Mavericks is serious. The afternoon has cross-on wind, which will mess it up.

Thursday the 30th has the swell dropping to 6ft from the WNW, still with a short period, and the energy is still high (927). The wind is onshore in the morning, but the afternoon is cross-on and choppy.

The pick of the entire window is the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. That’s the only time the swell is big, the direction is right (WNW), and the wind is light and onshore, offering a chance for clean conditions. It’s a true standout for very experienced surfers. The rest of the time, it’s a waiting game. Crowds at Mavericks can be an issue sometimes, but with this forecast, it’ll be quiet.

Rusty.

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