Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let's huddle up and talk about what Mavericks is looking like for the next couple of weeks. It’s gonna be a bit of a mixed bag, with some real quiet spells and a few moments where our famous big-wave spot might just come alive. Hang tight, it’s a long-range forecast.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a little pulse on Tuesday, September 15th, with some 5ft WNW swell showing up, but it’s flagged as marginal. The water is sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little boost, but the real story is that winds are onshore and the conditions aren't backing that swell up. The combined wave energy is moderate at 372, but it’s short-period stuff, only 8 seconds, and the forecast is calling it poor. Not the day to paddle out.

We hit a real dry spell from Wednesday, September 16th through Saturday, September 19th. Swell is tiny, mostly under 2ft, and when there is a little 2ft groundswell with a long 16-19 second period, the wind is either onshore or chopping things up. It’s just not happening. The combined energy drops into the 200-300 range, which is weak, and the scores are just flat-out zeros. Save your energy.

Now, Sunday, September 20th, we get a bit of a tease. A 5ft NW swell rolls in with a short, punchy 7-second period. The combined energy jumps to 604, which is solid moderate energy, but the wind is a stiff, choppy cross-onshore at 12-16 mph. The call is poor surf conditions again. For a setup like this, with that much wind and short-period junk, it’s looking more like a kitesurfer’s fun than a paddle surfer's dream.

Finally, we see a glimmer of hope on Monday, September 21st. Morning session has 5ft of WNW swell with a slightly better 9-second period. The combined energy is a hearty 635, and we get light, onshore winds from the WSW at just 6 mph. The score ticks up to a 2, which is the best we’ve seen, but it’s still only marginal due to questionable tide conditions. It’s the pick of the first week, but don’t expect perfection.

Tuesday, September 22nd, shows some more moderate energy with a 4ft WNW swell at 12 seconds, pushing the combined energy to 936. That’s getting into the strong end of moderate. But again, it’s held back by cross-onshore winds, making it marginal at best.

The real standout for the whole period looks to be Wednesday, September 23rd. We’ve got a clean morning with a light, cross-offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph, blowing right down the face. The swell is a solid 4ft from the WNW with an 11-second period. Combined energy sits at 532, and the conditions are described as clean. The score holds at a 2, making this the most promising window. If you had to pick one day in this entire 16-day outlook, this Wednesday morning is it. The wind will clean it right up.

After that, the forecast goes back into a long, quiet run from Thursday, September 24th, all the way through to Wednesday, September 30th. Swells are tiny, mostly under 2ft to 3ft, with long periods from the SW that won’t really wrap in with any punch. Winds are mostly cross or onshore. The combined energies drift between 138 and 548, with most days scoring zeros or low ones. It’s a pretty blank run to finish the outlook.

So, the bottom line: this is a tough stretch for Mavericks. The first week is mostly a bust, with a couple of marginal days. The only true standout is the Wednesday morning session on September 23rd, where light offshore winds will give that 4ft WNW swell some shape. Beyond that, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, though, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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