Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next two weeks at Mavericks are a real mixed bag, and most of it is not worth getting wet for. We’ve got a lot of onshore wind and short-period slop, and the only real highlight is a single morning that looks half-decent. If you’re keen, you’ll need to be patient, because the good stuff is a week and a half away.

The run starts Sunday the 16th with a small 3ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds – nice period, but no size. The wind is light onshore from the W at 6 mph, and the energy is moderate at 376, but there’s just not enough juice to make it fun. Afternoon drops off, so don’t bother. Monday the 17th is the same – 2ft of SW swell, light wind, and weak energy. Not worth the walk.

Tuesday the 18th sees a bump to 5ft, but the period drops to a poor 8 seconds and the energy jumps to 551 – that’s windswell slop. The morning is marginal, but the afternoon turns choppy with cross-onshore wind at 12 mph. Skip it. Wednesday the 19th is a write-off – 5ft of WSW windswell at 8 seconds, moderate cross-onshore wind, and messy.

Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are the same story: NW cross-on winds at 12 mph, swell between 4ft and 5ft, all short period (7–8 seconds). It’s lumpy, choppy, and closer to a washing machine than a surf break. The energy stays moderate, but it’s all mush.

Saturday the 22nd is quieter with wind down to 6 mph in the morning, but the swell is still just 4ft at 8 seconds – weak. Afternoon turns cross-onshore. Nothing doing.

Now, the first glimmer: Sunday the 23rd. We get 4ft of WNW swell at 9 seconds, still short-period, but the wind is light cross-on from the SW at 6 mph, so the surface stays clean. The combined energy is 350 (moderate), and while it’s not big, it’s the most rideable so far. It’s a consistent reef, so there will be waves, but the short period might cause some closeouts. Crowds are possible, so be ready. For beginners, it’s okay on the smaller sets; for experts, it’s a bit tame.

Then the flat spell hits. Monday the 24th drops to 1ft with a long 18-second period, but there’s no energy – 284 on the scale – and the wind is cross-on. Dead. Tuesday the 25th through Thursday the 27th, we get 4–5ft of WNW windswell at 7–9 seconds, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the quality is poor. Morning of the 25th is marginal, afternoon chops up. It’s a grind.

Now, here’s the one that counts: Friday the 28th, morning. The swell is 5ft of WNW at 9 seconds, still short-period, but the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the W, and the energy jumps to 624 (moderate-to-strong). The waves will have some push, and the light wind means cleaner faces. It’s not epic, but it’s the best of the whole window. The afternoon though, that NW cross-on kicks up to 12 mph and it’s messy again.

After that, it fades fast. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th see the swell drop to 2–3ft, with longer 15–16 second periods but weak energy. The wind stays cross-on, so it’s not worth it. By Monday the 31st, the swell is 2ft at 14 seconds and the energy is down to 246 – flat, plain and simple.

So, the bottom line: the only real shot in these 16 days is Friday the 28th, early. That’s your window. The rest is windswell chop, small surf, and bad timing. If you’re a beginner, the 23rd might be manageable, but don’t expect much. For experts, the 28th is the one that’ll get your heart going a little, but it’s still not the Mavericks of legend. The long-period swells early on just don’t have the size, and the short-period windswell that follows is pure frustration.

Keep an eye on updates, because this could shift, but as it stands, you’re waiting for Friday the 28th.

Rusty out.

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