Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, things are looking pretty grim. For the first week, from Thursday the 2nd right through to Sunday the 12th of July, we’re in a real dry spell. There’s just no quality surf to get excited about. The swell is small, mostly under 0.8ft, and the wind is locked in from the SSW or SW – a constant cross-onshore breeze keeping everything choppy and messy. The water temp is sitting at 61°F, which is a massive 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a real anomaly. It feels like bathwater out there, but the waves just aren't cooperating. The energy is weak to moderate, bouncing around in the low 300s to mid 400s (combined swell energy), and that’s just not enough to make Mavericks the beast we know it can be.

Now, we do finally see a change heading into the second week. Wednesday the 8th of July morning brings a pulse of energy with a 6ft WNW swell, but it’s a short 8-second period and the wind is onshore. The energy jumps up to 1193 (strong), but the conditions are marginal at best. The real window looks to be Thursday the 9th of July. The morning has a 6ft WNW swell, but it’s that afternoon where we get a little spike: a 7ft WNW swell, still a short 9-second period, with a cross-onshore wind from the NW at 12 mph. The combined energy hits 1559, so there’s plenty of water moving, but it’s going to be mushy and bumpy. This is likely the pick of the whole forecast – but it’s strictly for advanced surfers only. Anything over 7ft at a reef like this means big, raw ocean.

The following Friday the 10th through Sunday the 12th are more of the same: 5ft to 6ft of WNW swell but always fighting that cross-onshore or onshore wind. It’s a frustrating run because the energy is there, with values consistently in the 500s, 600s, and even 800s, but the wind never cleans up. Crowds at Mavericks can be an issue, and when the waves are this marginal, it’s not worth the crowd.

After the 12th, the swell fades back down into the 4ft range with light winds, but it’s just not enough to break that heavy reef properly. The long 19-second period groundswell that shows up on the 15th is a tease – big period, but only 2ft of swell from the W. A long period swell like that needs a point or reef, and Mavericks is perfect for it, but with no size, it’ll just be a bump.

Overall, my honest take? There are no true standouts in this 16-day window. The best you can hope for is a window on the afternoon of Thursday the 9th of July for some big, unruly swells if you’re an expert. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the kite surfers get more out of this set-up than we do.

Stay tuned, the forecasts can shift.

Rusty.

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