Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get real about the next 16 days at Mavericks. I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough one. We’re staring down a long stretch of poor surf quality and messy conditions. The best advice is to keep your expectations low.

The first recommendation to even consider paddling out isn’t until Saturday, July 12th. From then on, it’s a grind. The pattern is dominated by short-period swell, mostly in the 8-second range, which lacks the power and shape you want for a wave of this size. The wind is almost always a negative factor, blowing cross-on or onshore, keeping the surface choppy and unsettled. The combined energy is moderate, often in the 300-700 range, which for a spot like this just isn't enough to overcome the wind.

The small window of interest comes on Sunday, July 19th morning. There’s a little bump in the WNW swell at 4ft, with a slightly longer period of 10 seconds. The wind goes light and onshore from the west, making it the only session with a genuine chance of something rideable. The water temperature is sitting at 60°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, about 4°F above average. That’s a weird bonus, but it won’t fix the bumpy surface.

Maybe the most promising session is the morning of Saturday, July 25th, a full two weeks out. A solid SW groundswell shows up with a 21-second period and combined energy of 928. The head-high swell is 3ft. The wind is light cross-on from the NW, which is a decent compromise. This is the standout because it’s the only real dose of long-period energy, but it’s a long way off and the cross-on wind could still mess with the lineup. For a spot like Mavericks, that long period is a double-edged sword – it means power, but it also means the wave can close out if you’re not on a reef or point. Given the constant marginal conditions before this, this is the one to circle on the calendar, but keep a loose grip on it.

Honestly, if you’re a paddle surfer, most of this forecast looks like a write-off. The persistent cross-onshore winds and short-period chop make it more of a kite surfer’s setup than a pure wave-riding situation. Don’t get your hopes up too high for the long-range stuff; these winter swells are promising but not locked in.

Rusty.

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