Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming down the line for the next couple of weeks. I'm looking straight at Mavericks, and I gotta be real with you—it’s a tough outlook.

The overall pattern is pretty grim. We’ve got a consistent WNW groundswell pushing in, but the wind is completely working against us for the vast majority of the period. For the entire first week, from Tuesday the 11th through to Monday the 17th of August, it's a mess of cross-onshore and onshore winds, mostly from the SSW and SW, making things choppy and blown out. The wave energy is there—moderate, with values ranging from about 297 to 403—but the quality is just shot. You’re looking at 3ft to 4ft of messy, short-period swell, and that’s just not going to do anything at a heavy reef like this.

There's a slight flicker of hope around Sunday the 16th of August into the start of the second week. The swell drops to 3ft, but the period stretches out to a very long 16-17 seconds from the SW. That's pure groundswell energy. On Sunday morning the wind looks like a light onshore breeze from the west, which could make it glassy enough to be rideable, but it's going to be small and the tide could be a factor. The combined energy is moderate, hitting around 403, which is decent for the size. We get a few more marginal mornings like this—Wednesday the 19th of August morning has clear skies and a light WSW cross-onshore, and the Friday the 21st morning looks clean with a light westward breeze. But each time, the swell is tiny, around 2ft to 3ft, and the consistency is poor.

Honestly, there’s no true standout session here. If you’re desperate for a paddle and you’re an absolute expert who knows this wave, the most promising window is probably the morning of Sunday the 16th of August, with that super long-period 3ft SW swell and very light wind. But I’m telling you, it’s marginal. The rest is a write-off, with consistent cross-onshore winds from the NW and WNW wrecking the surface later in the second week.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no shocker there. Mavericks is an exposed reef that needs a big, clean WNW swell to fire. This run is just a series of small, dirty windows. For a spot this serious, it’s a quiet period. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

- Rusty

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