Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the outlook for our local zone. Straight up, I’ve gotta be honest with you—this is a tough stretch. We’re staring down the barrel of a long, frustrating run of poor surf conditions that lasts for the better part of two weeks. The first real glimmer of anything worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until Wednesday, the 29th of July, and even then, it’s not perfect.

For the first week and a half, from Tuesday the 21st of July all the way through Tuesday the 28th, it’s a write-off. The swell is small, the wind is junk, and the water is churned up. We’ve got a consistent cross-onshore breeze from the northwest, and the swell direction is mostly SSW or SW, which is not what this place likes. The combined energy is moderate in the early days, around 362 (moderate) to 756 (moderate), but the quality is just not there. The water temperature is sitting at 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, a degree or so above average, but that’s small comfort when the waves are poor.

Then, on Wednesday the 29th of July, things finally wake up. We get a pulse of swell from the WNW, which is the magic direction for Mavericks. The swell height jumps to 7 ft in the morning, with a short period of 8 seconds—so it’s not a classic groundswell, but it’s got some push. The combined energy is strong, hitting 1487 (strong). The catch? The wind is still cross-onshore from the WNW at 9 mph, so it’s not clean. That morning session is rated as marginal, and it’s the best we’ve seen in days. This is a big wave, over 8 ft, so this is strictly for experts. The short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy, and at a reef break like this, the short period keeps it from being too straight, but it’s still a heavy, powerful wave.

Thursday the 30th of July morning offers a similar setup: 7 ft from the WNW, period 8 seconds, and an onshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph. It’s still marginal, but with the wind more onshore, it’s a bit cleaner than the day before. The energy is strong again at 1278 (strong). Again, experts only.

After that, it fades. The swell drops back below 5 ft by Friday the 31st, and the wind stays cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality poor. The second week is a quiet, forgettable affair with small, short-period swell and energy levels dropping to weak (168) to moderate (800). The only real standout in the entire 16-day window is that Wednesday the 29th of July morning. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only moment where the size and direction line up. If you’re an expert and you’ve been waiting, that’s your window. For everyone else, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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