Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long hard look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this forecast window is a tough one for paddle surfing around here. We're looking at a real dry spell with very little that's worth getting excited about. The waves are small, the wind is mostly junk, and the only consistent spot on the radar is a big-league wave that needs a whole lot more oomph than it's getting.

We've got a solid gap of nothing worthwhile right through the middle of the period. The only faint glimmers of something surfable are tucked away on the edges, and even then, you'd be stretching it.

Let's start with the one name in the game: Mavericks. This place is a world-class reef break, exposed and hungry for a big WNW to NW groundswell. But for the first week, it's a sad story. The water is sitting at 63°F – that's about 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so you can leave the thick wetsuit at home, but that's about the only positive. We kick off Sunday, September 13th with a tiny 2ft SW swell, but it's getting hammered by a fresh 16 mph cross-onshore. It's choppy, lumpy, and just plain poor. The combined swell energy is weak (195), and the rating reflects that.

Monday the 14th sees a bump to 5ft from the WNW, and the energy climbs to moderate (450), but again, the wind is cross-onshore, though a bit lighter. It's still poor. Tuesday morning the 15th is a similar story – 5ft but messy. The closest we get to a pulse all week is Wednesday the 16th afternoon, with a 4ft WNW swell and the wind finally goes *on* from the WNW, which is offshore for this spot. The period is a short 8 seconds though, so it's a weak, short-period windswell. The energy is moderate (372), but the conditions are still "poor." Not exactly a green light.

The second week is even more of a letdown. From Thursday the 17th right through to the end of the month, the swell drops back to a tiny 1ft to 2ft, mostly from the SW with some very long period (16-19 seconds) energy. That's a classic groundswell signal, but at that size, it's basically a non-event. The energy numbers bounce around from weak (204) to moderate (481), but the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore with moderate to fresh breezes, making it a lumpy, blown-out mess. There's one morning, Tuesday the 22nd, where we get a 4ft WNW swell with a light cross-shore breeze, which is "marginal." That's the best of a very bad bunch.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, there is no standout session. The swell never gets above 6ft, and when it does have a little bit of size, the wind is wrong. The longer-period swells in the second week are too small to do anything at a heavy, exposed reef like Mavericks, and with the period over 15 seconds, it would break too straight for the beach anyway. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session. You'd be waiting a long time between sets for nothing. For now, keep the board in the car and wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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