Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half at Mavericks is a tough watch. We're looking at a long stretch of poor surf quality, with the first real glimmer of hope not showing up until the very end of the forecast period. The water is sitting at a warm 64°F right now, which is 5°F above normal for this time of year, so it’s feeling more like a bathtub than a big-wave playground.

The main story is a whole lot of cross-onshore wind and choppy, lumpy conditions. Starting Saturday the 12th, through the following week, it's just a mess. The swell is small, mostly around 2ft to 2ft from the SW, and the wind is just ruining it. Even when we see a pulse of WNW swell around Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th, pushing 5ft, the wind is still cross-on, leaving it bumpy. The combined energy on the 14th morning hits 412 (moderate), but with the wind angle, it’s not doing us any favors.

There are a few mornings where the wind drops off – like Tuesday the 15th morning, with a light breeze and a 5ft WNW swell (combined energy 422), but it’s still a cross-on wind, so the surface gets messed up. The same goes for Wednesday the 16th. There are some longer-period swells showing up later in the week, like a 17-second groundswell on the 16th afternoon, but it's tiny (2ft) and the wind is wrong. It's just frustrating.

Then we get a bit of a pulse on the 20th (Sunday), with the swell jumping to 6ft from the NW. The combined energy is 789 (strong), but again, the wind is a fresh cross-on from the NW, making it choppy. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

Finally, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. On Saturday the 26th, we see a shift. The wind goes cross-offshore from the north, with a light breeze. It’s still small, only 2ft from the SW, but it’s clean. The real standout, though, is Sunday morning, the 27th of September. The wind is forecast to go glassy – dead calm. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the SW with a period of 15 seconds. The combined energy is 394 (moderate). That’s a long-period groundswell, which at a reef like Mavericks, means proper, well-shaped lines. It’s small, but it will be absolutely perfect and clean. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

Crowds are always a possibility here, so get there early if you want a slice of that glassy goodness. The consistency is normally solid here, so this blank run is a bit of a bummer, but it won't stay like this forever.

- Rusty

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