Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you about the Mavericks forecast for this run. Looking at the next 16 days, I gotta tell you, it's a tough one. We've got swell, but the conditions are fighting us every step of the way.

The whole period is a bit of a grind. The wind is stubbornly coming from the Northwest or West-Northwest, putting us in a cross-onshore position almost constantly. That means the surface is going to be choppy and lumpy for the vast majority of sessions. The water temperature is a balmy 63°F which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're getting bounced around.

The first recommendation doesn't pop up until Sunday the 23rd, and even then it’s just a "marginal" call with some clouds and a light westerly breeze. The morning has a tiny 1ft swell from the SW with a very long period of 19 seconds, giving us a moderate energy reading of 287. That long period might make it a bit wonky at a beach break, but at a reef like this, it could have some shape. The afternoon sees the swell pick up to 3ft from the WNW (8s period), but the wind stays onshore. It’s not great.

We go through a long stretch from Monday the 24th right through to the end of August where it's just poor surf conditions. The wind is a constant cross-onshore, the swell is all over the place in size and direction, and the wave energy is in the moderate range (180 to 840). There's a small window on Saturday morning the 29th where it's "marginal" again – 3ft from the SSW with an 18-second period and a light breeze. The energy is solid at 840, but that cross-onshore wind is still a problem.

The start of September is more of the same. A bit more size pushing through, with the swell hitting 5ft on Tuesday the 1st and staying around 4-4ft through Wednesday the 2nd. But at 5ft, that’s getting into expert-only territory for a spot like this, and the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore. It’s going to be a messy paddle.

The best you can hope for is the early morning of Thursday the 3rd of September or Friday the 4th. On Thursday morning, we have 2ft from the SW with a 19-second period and lighter winds. The energy is moderate at 357. Friday morning has 3ft from the SW (18s period) with slightly more energy at 534. For a spot like Mavericks, even that tiny swell with that long period could produce a clean, long wall if you can find the peak. But the wind is still cross-onshore, so "clean" is a relative term here.

Forget about Saturday the 5th – the wind is back up and the energy is strong (530), but it's just going to be messy.

Honestly, if you were hoping for those classic big, clean Mavericks waves, this forecast isn't it. The swell direction is mostly from the WNW which is okay, but the cross-onshore wind is the killer. If I had to pick one, maybe the early morning of Friday the 4th of September is the most promising for a quiet, patient session, but don’t get your hopes up. It’s one of those periods where the sea looks more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle guys.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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