Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks at Mavericks. Let’s be straight with each other – this is a stretch that’s gonna test your patience. The forecast is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, the quality is just not there. We’re looking at a lot of junky, onshore, and cross-onshore wind, with a messy swell bouncing around. The water is sitting at 61.2° – that’s a full 5.2° warmer than usual for this time of year, which is very unusual. It’s a weird, warm blanket out there right now, but it doesn’t help the waves.

Right off the bat, from Thursday the 9th through the whole first week, it’s a tough watch. Thursday afternoon kicks off with a weak 2.6 ft swell from the SW, but it’s a long-period 16 second groundswell. The problem is the cross-on NW wind at 15 mph, which just trashes it. The combined energy at 596 (moderate) feels like a tease. Friday the 10th morning actually brings a bigger pulse – 7.2 ft from the WNW – but again, the cross-on wind is there, and the period drops to a short 9 seconds. The energy reading jumps to 1523 (strong), but it’s just a choppy, blown-out mess. It’s not surfable the way we want it. The pattern continues for days: Saturday morning has a 4.3 ft WNW swell with the wind going straight onshore, but it’s still labeled “poor surf conditions.” Sunday morning the 12th is the same story with a 4.6 ft WNW swell. There’s a brief window Sunday afternoon with clear skies and a lighter 9 mph wind, but it’s still cross-onshore, so you’re battling a gentle chop.

The first real glimmer comes on Wednesday the 15th. The morning shows a 6.9 ft WNW swell, with the combined energy hitting 1221 (strong). The wind is still cross-on at 9 mph, but the rating bumps up to a “marginal” 2/10. This is Mavericks, so 6.9 ft is a proper size, but those 9-second periods mean it’s fat and a bit lumpy. It’s a big, powerful, but messy wave. This is expert territory. By Wednesday afternoon, the energy drops to 834 and the wind picks up again, so that window is tight.

After that, it really fades. Thursday the 16th is a no-go. Friday the 17th sees a tiny 2.0 ft swell but with a beautiful 18-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is still moderate at 529, but it’s so small it’s barely a ripple. The wind is onshore in the morning, offering a slight chance of something clean, but the size is just too small for Mavericks to work. From the 18th through the 22nd, it’s a terrible run. Days of 2.0 ft to 2.3 ft swell with cross-onshore winds from the NW and WNW. The energy readings are pathetic, between 282 and 566. The 18-second periods are a tease on a wave that’s not breaking.

Now, the second week has a potential change-up. Wednesday the 22nd afternoon shows a 4.9 ft WNW swell with a short 8-second period, and the wind finally goes straight onshore from the WNW at 9 mph. The energy is 733 (moderate), but it’s still labeled “poor surf conditions.” The real hope is Thursday the 23rd. The morning kicks off with a 4.6 ft WNW swell, light SW wind at 6 mph, and the rating goes to 1/10. Not great. But Thursday afternoon! That’s the standout. We get a 6.2 ft WNW swell, the wind shifts to a very light WSW at 6 mph, the combined energy jumps to 1053 (strong), and the rating is a 3/10. It’s the best of a bad bunch. The light wind will keep it from getting totally chopped, but it’s still a cross-on wind so it won’t be glassy. The 9-second period means it’s a bit of a walled-up beast. It’s still a big wave, over 5 ft, so it’s for the experienced crew, and at Mavericks, that’s a given. Crowds are *sometimes* a problem there, but with this forecast, it might be a little quieter.

Friday the 24th keeps the hope alive. Morning has a 5.6 ft WNW swell, light WSW wind, and a 2/10 rating. Friday afternoon, the wind goes straight onshore from the W at 6 mph, and we get a solid 6.6 ft WNW swell with a 9-second period. The energy jumps to 1207 (strong). It’s an “unknown” wind state, but the light onshore breeze could actually be okay for a bit of shape. The rating is 2/10. It’s marginal

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