Mavericks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about this stretch of coast. The outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day window that starts with a real quiet spell – no good surf on offer for the first few days. The first real glimmer doesn’t show up until the morning of Sunday, the 2nd of August, and even then, it’s only a marginal call.

The overall pattern is pretty flat and uninspiring. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore for most of the period, which is a killer for any wave quality. The water temperature is sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the spring suit might feel a bit more comfortable.

The only break on the cards is Mavericks, a heavy, exposed reef. It’s a consistent spot, but it takes a big, clean, and well-directed swell to really fire. Over this whole forecast, we just don’t get that. The swell that does show up is mostly from the WNW, which is the optimum direction, but the size and wind always seem to be off.

Let’s break it down. Thursday afternoon the 30th of July is a write-off – 5ft WNW swell, but it’s cross-on with a 12 mph NW wind, and the combined energy is weak (477). It’s choppy and poor. Friday the 31st looks a bit better in the morning with 5ft swell, but the wind is still cross-on. The energy picks up a bit (642), but it’s still marginal. Saturday the 1st of August is more of the same – messy conditions.

The best chance in the whole run lands on Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. The swell is 6ft from the WNW, period is 9 seconds, and the wind is light, coming from the west at 6 mph. It’s classed as “on” shore, but a light breeze like that can be glassy early. The combined energy is moderate (717). This is your window. It’s still labelled as marginal, but if you’re a local who knows where the peak sets up, this is the cleanest it’s going to get. The crowd factor at Mavericks is ‘sometimes’, so on a so-so day like this, you might actually have a bit of room.

After that, it drops off fast. The afternoon of the 2nd shows a bigger swell of 8ft, but the wind swings cross-on and the energy jumps to 1767, which is a lot of juice. But the chop and wind will make it a mess – more of a challenge for the experts. The rest of the period is a total bust. From Monday the 3rd of August all the way through to Friday the 14th of August, it’s a desert. The swell drops to under 3ft, the wind is consistently cross-on or cross, and the combined energy is weak to moderate. The long-period swells that show up in the second week (like 16-19 seconds) are from the SW, which is the wrong direction for this break, and the wind spoils any chance of it being rideable.

For a place like Mavericks, a blank run of over a week and a half is a bit normal when the jet stream goes quiet. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-onshore wind and the mess might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a no-go.

Keep your eyes on the charts, but for now, we’re on a break.

Rusty.

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