Virgin Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s switch to feet and miles, but keep the same story.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal to poor conditions, with a lot of cross-onshore wind and choppy water. The wind is mostly from the NW, and it’s just not playing nice. The swell is around, but it’s short period, mostly 7-8 seconds, so it’s lacking that punch. The wave energy is moderate for the first few days, around 519 to 822 (a three-digit number, so not weak, but not exactly pumping either). Water temp is sitting at about 54°F, which is about normal for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are pretty much write-offs. The waves are small to medium, but the wind is cross-on, making things messy. You’ll be fighting chop more than riding waves. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are similar – some swell, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the models are calling it poor surf. Nothing to get excited about.

Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th sees a weird shift. We get a long-period groundswell from the WNW, with periods of 15-17 seconds. That’s a long period, which usually means better shaped waves and more energy. And the energy numbers are strong, hitting 1119 and 999. The wind is also looking better, light and onshore. But the swell height is small, only about 3 ft to 3 ft. It’s a tease. The models are still calling it “marginal,” so don’t expect a classic session. Maybe a few cleaner lines if you’re patient.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st bring a bit more size, with the swell popping up to 5 ft to 7 ft from the NW, but the period drops back to 8-9 seconds. The wind is light and onshore, which is a big positive. The wave energy is strong, especially Monday afternoon at 1015. This is the best bet in the near term. It’s still only a 3/10 on the score, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen so far. The break is exposed to the W, and the swell is coming from the NW, so it’s not a perfect match, but it’s close enough.

Now, Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th, we’re back to small, weak, and poor conditions. A lot of SSW swell in the mix, but it’s tiny and the wind messes it up. Not worth the paddle.

Alright, here’s the big one. Look ahead to Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th. The models are lighting up. We’re talking a solid NW swell, 8 ft to 12 ft, with a moderate 9-second period. The wind is light and onshore, which is perfect. The wave energy is massive – 1307 on Saturday morning, hitting 2104 on Saturday afternoon, and a whopping 2660 on Sunday afternoon. That’s a four-digit number, meaning very strong energy. The models are even saying “wind and tide favorable,” but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a beginner spot, anything over 8 ft is expert territory. This is a stand-out for the experienced crew only. If you’re a beginner, stay on the beach and watch. If you’re an expert, mark your calendar for that Saturday and Sunday. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it, but it looks promising.

After that, Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th look like a repeat of the earlier pattern – messy, cross-onshore, and not great.

So, the best on offer is a two-part story: the cleanest, most rideable surf will be Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st, with manageable 5 ft to 7 ft waves and light wind. But the true standout is the big swell on July 25th and 26th, which is a powerful, heavy setup for experts only.

Rusty.

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