Steamer Lane-Middle Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local stretch. Let’s just say, the next few days are going to test your patience. We’ve got a slow start, but there’s a solid pulse on the horizon.

For the first few days, it’s pretty flat. Thursday the 23rd, Friday the 24th, and Saturday the 25th are all basically a write-off with no real swell to speak of. You’ll be sitting on a glassy ocean but not a wave in sight. That’s the price we pay for the summer doldrums.

The first sign of life comes on Sunday the 26th morning. We’re looking at a tiny 3ft swell from the WNW, but with a short period of only 6 seconds, it’s not going to have any punch. The combined energy is weak at just 58. It’s a good day for a paddle, but not much else.

Monday the 27th is where things start to tick up a notch. The swell builds to 3ft in the morning, climbing to 5ft by the afternoon. The period is still short (6-7 seconds), so the waves will be a bit crumbly, but the combined energy is climbing into the moderate range (93 to 160). The wind is light offshore from the WNW, so the surface will be clean. It’s surfable, but don’t expect any standout barrels.

The real action is going to kick off on Tuesday the 28th. The swell is building nicely, hitting 6ft from the NW by the afternoon with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 362 – that’s a solid moderate pulse. The wind is light offshore all day, so the conditions will be clean. This is where the week starts to get interesting.

But the true standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Wednesday the 29th. The morning session is the pick of the entire forecast. We’ll have clean 7ft NW swell with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is a hefty 827. That’s a strong pulse of energy. The wind is glassy, light offshore from the WSW. This is a morning for the experts out at Steamer Lane-Middle Peak (Santa Cruz). The swell direction is matching the optimum NW, and the very consistent nature of this reef break means it’ll be firing. Just be ready for the crowds – it’s often busy, and for good reason. The water is sitting at 60°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can probably ditch the 4/3 for a spring suit.

The energy holds through Thursday the 30th with another strong morning session (6ft, 820 combined energy), but it starts to fade into the weekend. By Friday the 31st, the swell drops back to 4ft, and the wind switches to a cross-shore, making it a bit messy.

Looking further out into the first week of August, the models are showing another pulse around Sunday the 2nd. The morning has a 7ft NW swell with a 9-second period and a combined energy of 964 – that’s a very strong signal. The wind is light and offshore, so it could be another cracker, but it’s a week out, so keep your fingers crossed. The following days see the energy taper off, and the wind turns more cross to cross-onshore, making the conditions less appealing.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a flat snooze. Wednesday the 29th morning is your absolute best bet for quality, powerful waves. The Sunday the 2nd morning is a promising, long-range runner-up. Get on it.

Rusty.

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