Indicators Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for the Indicators break.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a frustrating start. The first swell we see hits Monday afternoon with 5ft from the WNW, and it’s not clean. That cross-shore wind and the moderate combined swell energy (486) just isn't doing us any favours, and it's too messy to get excited about. We've also got Tuesday and Wednesday morning showing a drop in size and persistent onshore or cross-on conditions, meaning the first few days are basically a write-off.

The first real glimmer of hope comes Thursday morning the 17th. The swell drops right down to 2ft, but listen to this: it’s a long-period 16-second groundswell out of the SSW, and we get glassy conditions. The combined energy is actually moderate (404), so those long-period lines will have some punch behind them. For a point break like this, that period and direction is pure gold, giving you clean, lined-up waves. This is a standout session for the patient surfer. Water temps are a touch warmer than normal at 62°, which is a couple of degrees above average for this time of year, so you’ll be comfy out there in a spring suit.

It stays small through the end of the week and into the weekend, with the SSW swell continuing but the wind turning onshore again. The 21st of September (Monday) morning is another cracker, though. Again, glassy winds, 3ft from the SSW with a 17-second period and combined energy hitting 604. This is stronger energy for such a small wave, so expect a surprising amount of punch for a clean waist-high wave. That’s your other true standout, but remember it’s a week out, so keep a hopeful eye on it.

The pattern then fades into the 22nd through the 28th with a lot of marginal, poor, or merely "surfable" conditions. Winds are generally onshore or light, and the swell dips and gets a bit shorter in period. It’s a flat stretch for sure.

But hold onto your leash, because the real prize is at the very end. On Tuesday morning, the 29th of September, we’ve got a solid 6ft of WNW groundswell hitting, powered by very strong combined energy (768). The wind is glassy. This is a proper size, and at 6ft it's getting into intermediate territory, and if it pushes to 7ft that afternoon (with the cross-shore wind and even stronger energy at 804), it'll be a big day only for experts. The morning window, however, with that clean face and a solid period (9 seconds, not super long but solid) will offer the best, most powerful waves of the entire 16-day window. It’s a long way off, so the details are less certain, but the potential is enormous. The combined swell energy (768) is telling us this is the real deal.

So to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a struggle with small, messy surf, barring those two glassy SSW mornings on the 17th and 21st. The second week goes pretty quiet, then finishes with a bang around the 29th if the glass-off holds. Keep the longboard handy for the small clean days, and mark that calendar for the 29th.

Rusty.

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