Waimea Bay/Pinballs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about the next 16 days for Waimea Bay/Pinballs. This is a tricky one because we’re right in the heart of the summer doldrums for this North Shore spot. We’re looking at a long stretch of very small surf, and honestly, it’s going to be a while before we see anything worth paddling out for.

The first real chance of any surf doesn't appear until Saturday the 12th of September, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. We’ve got a few days of proper flatness before that. From Saturday morning, we start to see a tiny 3 ft swell from the NNE with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined wave energy is weak at 103. That’s not going to get the heart pumping. The wind is a light, cross-off breeze at 9 mph, which will keep the surface clean, but these waves are barely surfable. Conditions are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary". This is definitely a *wait and see* situation.

The pattern holds into Sunday and Monday the 13th and 14th with similar tiny 3 ft to 3 ft swells from the NE. The energy is still weak to moderate (peaking at 159 and 141), but the quality just isn’t there for the size and shape we need at a powerful reef like this. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least the wait will be comfortable.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, and a bit strange. Around Tuesday the 15th of September, we get a pulse of very long-period swell from the SW at 20 seconds. The wave height only shows 2 ft, but the combined energy jumps to 296, which is moderate. That long period suggests there’s energy moving deep underwater. However, a SW swell is completely wrong for Waimea Bay. This spot needs big NW to N swell to light up. A SW swell wrapping in here will be weak, broken up, and likely blown out by the usual trade winds. It’s a tease of energy, but the wrong direction.

The whole second week, from the 17th of September onward, is a write-off. We see more of these tiny, weak SW pulses and a few small NW pulses that amount to nothing. The swell heights are consistently 1.0 ft to 2 ft, and the energy values drop back into the double digits. The wind is a persistent moderate to fresh cross-off breeze from the E to ENE around 12-19 mph, which will just keep the surface a bit bumpy even with the small size.

There are a couple more days on the 24th and 25th of September where we see some energy creep back in, with combined energy readings hitting 252 and 281 from a 17-second SW groundswell. But again, it’s the wrong direction for this spot, and the forecast notes it as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions".

The Final Word
Honestly, there’s no standout day here. Not one. For Waimea Bay/Pinballs, we need a proper North swell to get those famous reef lines working. For the entire 16-day window, the surf is either flat or too small and from the wrong direction to make this exposed, consistent reef break worthwhile. Save the gas, keep your board in the car for another day, and maybe go for a snorkel. The water is warm, but the waves are not.

This is Rusty, signing off.

Read more