Waimea Bay/Pinballs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for the North Shore, Oahu.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the surf outlook is pretty grim for a while. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak energy coming in. The first real chance of anything ridable is around Tuesday, July 14th, when a short, lumpy swell tries to show up. But even then, it’s looking marginal at best.

For the first week, from Saturday the 11th through Monday the 13th, the swell is tiny – we’re talking 1 ft to 2 ft of weak, short-period stuff. The combined energy is low, around 30-36 at the start, barely enough to get a ripple. The wind is blowing cross-offshore from the ENE, which would be great for grooming if there was any swell, but there isn’t. The water temp is sitting at a typical 79°, right on the money for this time of year.

Things get a little more interesting on Tuesday the 14th. We see a bump in swell height to 4 ft, but it’s coming from the NNE with a short period of only 7 seconds. That’s gonna be a messy, wind-affected wave. The combined energy jumps to 372, which is moderate, but the quality is poor. It’s a short-period swell, so it’s gonna be choppy and tough to find a clean face. This is more of a “see if you can get a close-out barrel” kind of day for the experts.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon looks like the best of a bad bunch. The swell drops back to 2 ft from the W, but it’s got a decent 15-second period behind it. That’s a groundswell, which means more push and shape. The combined energy holds at 286, and the wind goes light from the E at 6 mph. That’s a recipe for clean, glassy conditions. For a point break like Waimea Bay/Pinballs, that long-period west swell could line up nicely. The water is still around 79°, nothing unusual there.

After that, it’s a slow fade. From Thursday the 16th all the way through the end of the forecast on Sunday, July 26th, it’s tiny again. We’re looking at swells under 2 ft, often with zero energy, and the wind stays on the cross-offshore side. There’s a big gap from July 20th to July 23rd where there’s literally no swell forecasted at all. A tiny 1 ft blip shows up on the 24th, but it’s nothing to get excited about.

So, the honest truth? The standout session is Wednesday afternoon, July 15th. The 2 ft west swell with that 15-second period, light offshore wind, and the potential for the reef at Pinballs to groin it out. That’s your window. It’s not big, but it’ll be clean and have some energy. For the rest of the run, you’re better off finding a longboard or a paddleboard, or just waiting for the next proper swell.

Keep your chin up, though. Forecasts change. But for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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