Waimea Bay/Pinballs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk in feet and miles per hour. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been over the numbers for Waimea Bay/Pinballs. The short story is: it’s pretty grim. The whole 16-day outlook is a desert, with just one tiny oasis of hope way out in the distance.

For the first couple of weeks, it’s flat or near-flat. The wave energy is mostly a pathetic number, like 15 or 22, which is just a rumor. The swell is tiny, barely 1 foot, and the wind is either cross-off or a light to moderate breeze. It’s clean, but that doesn’t matter when there’s nothing to surf. You’ll see a lot of “poor surf conditions” written down. This is a classic North Shore summer slump. The water is about 79°, which is exactly average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Then, around Monday, August 10th, there’s a little flutter. The morning brings a gentle offshore wind from the east, and the swell climbs to about 2 feet out of the west. The energy hits 132, which is still weak, but at least it’s not zero. The note says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – it’s a start, but don’t clear your schedule.

The only real standout is on Tuesday, August 11th, in the morning. The wind goes light offshore from the southeast, and the swell jumps to about 3 feet from the northeast. The combined energy hits 253, which is finally moderate. The note says “expect good surf conditions,” and for this entire forecast, that’s the best you’re going to get. It’s a proper northeast swell, but the period is only 9 seconds, so it’s a short-period windswell, not a long-range groundswell. It’ll be a bit lumpy and won’t have that deep, pushy power. Still, for a spot this exposed, with a clean offshore breeze, it’s the only time you’ll want to be in the water. The morning of the 12th is also worth a look, with a 3-foot swell from the northeast and offshore wind, but it’s not as good.

After that, it fades back into the small stuff. So, I’ll be honest with you: the only window that’s even worth thinking about is the morning of Tuesday, August 11th, and maybe Wednesday, August 12th. Everything else is a write-off. If you’re desperate, that’s your chance. Otherwise, just wait for the next real swell.

Rusty.

Read more