Waimea Bay/Pinballs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days of surf around here. Straight up, I gotta say it – this is a tough stretch. For a break like Waimea Bay/Pinballs, a famous reef that really wants a solid, clean NW swell to show its teeth, we’re looking at a long, dry spell with barely a wave worth paddling for. The whole forecast period is full of poor surf conditions, with only a couple of days that even touch marginal. The best I can do is point you to the least grim window, but even then, it’s more about getting wet than getting good waves.

Right from the get-go on Friday the 3rd of July, it’s tiny. Waimea Bay/Pinballs is seeing a weak 1 ft to 2 ft from the NW, but with a short, weak period of 13-14 seconds and a combined swell energy that barely tickles (48). The wind is a cross-off from the ENE at 12-16 mph, so the surface will be clean, but there's just no power. That doesn’t change. Saturday the 4th of July stays small in the morning, then in the afternoon we get a jump to 5 ft from the NE, but with a period of only 8 seconds – that’s short-period windswell. The combined energy hits 374, which is moderate, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast.” With that short period on a reef, it’s going to be fat, sectiony, and a bit of a mess. The wind is still cross-off, so it’ll look clean, but it won’t really surf well. That’s about the best the whole 16 days offers.

Sunday the 5th through Thursday the 10th of July is a graveyard – swell sizes drop back to 0.3 ft to 1 ft, and combined energy values are mostly below 50, with some days down to single digits (3, 6, 7). It’s just flat out poor. Then Friday the 10th of July sees a tiny pulse from the W at 1.0 ft with a 13-second period, giving weak energy of 50 – still not enough. From Saturday the 11th of July, we get another marginal blip. Saturday afternoon shows 5 ft from the NE at 7 seconds, with combined energy of 275, and Sunday the 12th of July morning hits 5 ft from the NE at 8 seconds, with energy jumping to 478. The wave comment for Saturday is “marginal,” and Sunday morning is also “marginal,” while Sunday afternoon drops back to “poor.” The wind stays cross-off from the ENE at 16 mph, so the surface is clean, but that short-period, NE-sourced swell is not what this NW-facing reef wants. It’ll be bumpy and warby.

By Monday the 13th of July, it’s back to tiny W swell (2 ft, 16-17 seconds) with moderate energy (253-268), but the wind picks up to a fresh breeze at 19 mph – still cross-off, but stronger. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The rest of the outlook, from Tuesday the 14th of July right through to Saturday the 18th of July, is more of the same: poor conditions with small W swell (1 ft to 2 ft), periods between 13 and 17 seconds, and combined energy mostly in the 100-300 range. The wind holds steady from the E/ENE at 12-19 mph, cross-off. It’s clean, but there’s no juice.

So, if you’re desperate, the standout window is a tiny one – Saturday the 11th of July afternoon and Sunday the 12th of July morning. At Waimea Bay/Pinballs, you’ll see 5 ft to 5 ft of NE windswell (short period at 7-8 seconds), with that cross-off wind keeping it looking tidy. But the swell direction is NE, and this spot’s optimum is NW, so the waves will be a bit wonky on the reef. It’s really only for experts because that 5 ft on a reef with short period can be a handful. Crowds are possible (listed as “sometimes”), so you won’t be alone. For anyone else, honestly, I’d save the energy – this is a long, blank run for a break that needs a proper NW groundswell to come alive. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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