Waimea Bay/Pinballs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for the North Shore.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is pretty gutless. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak waves and cross-off winds that just won’t let up. The water is sitting at a warm 79°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least the swim’s good.

The first few days, from Sunday the 5th through to late next week, it’s all about ankle-biters. The swell is barely a ripple, with heights hanging around 0.3ft to 1ft, and the combined energy is pathetic – we’re talking single-digit and low double-digit figures (like 42 down to 2). The wind is a stiff cross-off from the ENE at 15-22 mph, which won’t help the shape. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

We finally start to see a pulse of energy push in around Sunday the 12th and into the following week. Swell heights creep up to 2ft to 3ft, and the combined energy climbs into the hundreds (180 to 457). That’s a moderate energy level, which is a step in the right direction. The swell is coming from the W and SW with a period of 15-16 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, which means better shaped waves and longer gaps between sets. The wind does ease back a bit, dropping to a moderate breeze around 12-16 mph.

The standout moment in this whole 16-day window falls on Thursday, July 16th. The afternoon brings a pulse of 2ft swell from the W at 15 seconds, with combined energy at 242 (moderate). The wind is a gentle breeze from the E at 9 mph, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s not huge, but it’ll be the cleanest and most organised we’ve seen. Waimea Bay/Pinballs is an exposed reef break, so it’ll handle that long-period W swell well. It’s a consistent spot, and it’s advanced-only, so you’ll want to be on your game. Crowds are possible here – it’s a famous wave, so don’t expect it empty.

After that, the swell fades again pretty quickly. Friday the 17th has some surfable waves but very ordinary conditions, and by the weekend of the 18th and 19th, we’re back to tiny, weak surf with energy dropping to 60 and lower.

So, bottom line: most of this forecast is a write-off for a proper session. The one true highlight is the afternoon of Thursday, July 16th, when the stars align for a clean, fun, moderate-sized groundswell. Lock it in.

Rusty.

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